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Automobiles

Sector Update | 9 March 2022

Consumer
Commodity cost inflation inflicts earnings cuts
Geopolitical crisis leads to material cost pressures
 Consumer Staples have underperformed over the last couple of years largely battered
Change in EPS estimates (%)
Company FY23E FY24E by unprecedented and broad-based material cost increases. The COVID-induced
APNT -16.2 -7.9 restrictions imposed in urban centers and disruptions to the modern trade (MT)
BRIT -12.5 -10.6 channel also led to lower premium product sales.
GCPL -21.9 -12.5  In recent months, MT has rebounded to near normalcy in tandem with the gradual
HUVR -10.3 -8.4 lifting of COVID-led restrictions. However, the ongoing geopolitical crisis has led to a
NEST -2.6 -3.9
further build-up of material cost pressures, which has been quite steep in some cases.
PIDI -16.5 -5.2
UBBL -16.8 -11.0  As indicated in our commodity cost update last week, several commodities such as
UNSP -10.9 -7.7 crude, palm oil, and barley have witnessed an extremely steep increase sequentially
with end of Feb’22 prices being sharply higher than Dec’21 quarter averages. We also
indicated UBBL’s vulnerability to prevailing high barley costs in another note published
in the preceding week. Agri commodities, barring palm oil, had been benign earlier but
are witnessing a sequential upswing as well.
 With several companies having already taken sharp price hikes until 3QFY22 (with
some more in Jan-Feb’22 in a few cases), slowing rural and bottom-of-pyramid
demand would make them wary of passing on the recent sharp commodity cost
increases. We have reduced our estimates for eight of the 23 companies in our
coverage that are more vulnerable to recent developments. The remaining companies
are less adversely affected and changes to these will be made as part of our 4QFY22
preview, after observing the movement of commodity prices until then.
 Changes to our EPS forecasts are largely operating margin driven and have led to an
average reduction of ~13%/~8% in FY23/FY24 EPS for these eight companies. Existing
stock of lower-cost RM inventory may not dent 4QFY22 estimates materially. The
highest FY23E EPS cuts have been taken for GCPL (-22%), UBBL (-17%), APNT (-16%),
and PIDI (-16%) while NEST has been the least affected (3%/4% cut in CY22E/CY23E
EPS) due to its relatively higher pricing power. If inflation persists at prevailing levels
or higher for the next few months, there could be more cuts not only to our FY23E EPS
but also to our FY24E EPS (sharper cuts than the ones already assumed). Petrol and
diesel price hikes, likely in next few days, would also impact margins of consumer
companies adversely (due to transport/logistics costs) along with crude-related
packaging costs.
 We have also cut our FY24E target multiples for APNT and PIDI from 60x/65x to
50x/55x. Both of these stocks were significant beneficiaries of the re-rating in recent
years but intense commodity cost pressures in the recent quarters have made their
earnings more susceptible than peers, especially if crude costs sustain at high levels
for a few more months.
 GCPL, DABUR, and MRCO remain our top picks among Staples. While estimate cuts to
GCPL are sharp due to the unexpected steep surge in palm oil costs along with some
caution on growth and margins in its Africa business (because of sharp inflation), the
turnaround story is evidently intact. We had reiterated in a detailed note in Jan’22 on
the building blocks in place (for GCPL) for sustained topline and earnings growth.
Valuations here are inexpensive despite earnings cuts. DABUR and MRCO are less
adversely affected by the ongoing commodities surge. We had also highlighted the
strong investment case for DABUR in a detailed note last month. Within
discretionaries, we like TTAN, JUBI and DEVYANI. Demand outlook is buoyant and
commodity costs are not worrying yet.

Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research analyst (Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com)


Research analyst: Dhairya Dhruv (Dhairya.Dhruv@MotilalOswal.com) / Kaiwan Jal Olia (Kaiwan.O@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Consumer

Brent Crude Index 132 Hindustan Unilever


 Two factors have held back HUVR’s earnings growth over the past two years
(FY20-22), after a stellar period of ~17% earnings CAGR in the preceding four
37 years. These factors are: a) extremely steep commodity cost inflation affecting
over half of its portfolio adversely and b) underperformance of its high-margin
discretionary portfolio.
 Worries/uncertainties remain on both these aspects. With steep sequential
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

increases in palm oil and crude costs (which also affects LAB used in detergents),
management’s earlier expectations of commodity cost stability/ decline in
2HCY22 is likely to get pushed back further. We also need to monitor if
persistent inflation ends up impacting premiumization or causes significant
down-trading in Staples, the latter has not been a factor so far.
 We believe HUVR’s earnings growth will bounce back to mid-teen levels once
TiO2 price (INR/kg) 444 the abovementioned worries ebb. However, uncertainty remains over the next
couple of quarters. We maintain our BUY rating; however, HUVR does not
feature among our top picks for now.
250
Asian Paints and Pidilite
 Crude-related RMs and chemicals adversely affected by supply chain issues form
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

over half of the material costs for both companies.


 While TiO2 prices have not witnessed an alarming sequential increase and VAM
costs are actually down (v/s the extremely high levels seen in Dec’21), these
commodities are highly correlated to crude (with a lag), which has surged over
the Dec’21 quarter average.
 APNT has already hiked prices by over 22% while PIDIs price hikes in response to
the cost increases until Dec’21 have also been sharp.
VAM prices (USD/MT)
 Both these companies face a high base of sales growth for the next few
quarters.
1,982  Moreover, there is no indication that the industry growth trajectory for either
paints or adhesives has improved post COVID unlike in the case of QSRs, nor is
854
there are any substantial share gains from the unorganized sector in either
category.
Jun-20

Jun-21
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Oct-20

Oct-21

 In light of the above arguments, we have also cut our FY24E target multiples for
APNT and PIDI from 60x/65x to 50x/55x. Re-rating has also played a big part in
driving these stock prices in recent years and the stocks are thus vulnerable to
earnings disappointment.
 We maintain our Neutral rating on both these stocks.

Palm Oil (MYR/MT) 6,996


GCPL
 Management indicated in an interview that YoY decline in gross margin for
4QFY22 would be lower than preceding quarters. Nevertheless, the sequential
increase in palm oil costs has been so steep that FY23 estimates appear to be at
2,276 risk, especially for the Soaps business, if these levels sustain for a few months.
We are also cautious of the impact of high crude and other commodity inflation
on the lower income economies of Africa.
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

 Material cost concerns overall are fewer v/s peers and GCPL has more pricing
power with market leadership in other domestic segments such as Household
Insecticides, Hair Colors, and Air Fresheners.
9 March 2022 2
Consumer

 The turnaround story is evidently intact despite near-term challenges. We had


India WPI Glass Bottle 150
Index reiterated in a detailed note in Jan’22 on the building blocks in place for
sustained topline and earnings growth. Valuations are inexpensive despite
earnings cuts.
131

UBBL and UNSP


 Since UBBL procures barley ahead of the crucial summer season (1Q typically
May-20

May-21
Jan-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

accounts for 35-40% of full-year EBITDA), we believe the prevailing high prices
for barley in Feb/Mar’22 would have an adverse impact on UBBL’s gross margins
for FY23E even if sales are buoyant for the summer season for the first time in
three years, as expected. We had highlighted risks of the same in our note
before the Ukraine situation escalated.
 Glass bottle costs have also witnessed double-digit growth YoY (and could also
NCDEX Barley Spot see further inflation since fuel is an important component of bottle
(INR/quintal) 2,386 manufacturing), which will adversely affect both UBBL and UNSP.
 The increase in price of aluminum cans was a key factor affecting 3QFY22 gross
2,010 margin for UBBL and inflation continues to be extremely steep sequentially.
Cans are ~15% of sales with bottles account for the remaining 85% for UBBL.
 Sustained high crude costs could also result in higher levels of ethanol blending
and disruptions in ENA supply for UNSP in FY23E.
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

 With around 70% of the market for alcobev requiring permissions for price
increases from state governments (which are usually approved with a significant
lag), commodity inflation is even more of a bother for alcobev players compared
with other consumer companies with direct control over pricing power.
 If economic growth gets negatively affected and crude costs sustain at these
levels, possibility of sharp excise increases by state governments in their state
Wheat (INR/quintal) budgets in March and April and beyond is also a potential worry. Especially on a
2,293 base of no material increases in FY22 budget in most states (unprecedented)
this could adversely impact net sales growth and margins further.
1,900

Britannia and Nestle


 Barring palm oil and packaging costs that witnessed massive increases, food
Jul-20

Jul-21
Nov-20

Nov-21
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

companies were facing relatively benign agri commodity inflation until Dec’21.
 Wheat, sugar, and SMP have seen significant sequential inflation in 4QFY22.
 While the Ukraine crisis has led to a spike in global wheat costs, India is
expected to have a bumper wheat crop this year, which should keep domestic
prices in check.
 Nevertheless, material cost inflation is higher than earlier expectations for food
companies.
SMP (US$/CWT)
 BRIT, with its low gross margin, is especially vulnerable while the management
181
of NEST in its analyst meet in Feb’22 indicated that commodity inflation is here
to stay. This was even before the Ukraine crisis that ignited further pressures.
125  We remain Neutral on NEST. While we have a BUY rating on BRIT, it is not
among our top picks (similar to HUVR) as the visibility on its earnings is lower
than peers over the next two to three quarters.
Jun-21
Dec-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

9 March 2022 3
Consumer

Exhibit 1: Major commodities continue to witness acute inflationary pressures


Dec’21 Spot v/s
Q4FY22 YTD Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Q4FY21 YoY (%) Spot average Dec’21 (%)
Non-agri Commodities
Brent crude (USD/bbl) 94.6 79.4 19.1 60.7 55.9 132.0 74.3 77.6
Titanium dioxide (INR/kg) 444.3 425.7 4.4 272.7 62.9 447.0 435.4 2.7
VAM China (USD/MT) 1,982.0 2,454.3 (19.2) 1,730.7 14.5 1,982 1,955 (26.1)
India WPI glass index 150.1 142.6 5.2 134.0 12.0 150.1* 144.8 3.7
Agri Commodities
Palm oil (MYR/MT) 5,904.6 5,171.4 14.2 3,925.8 50.4 6,996.0 5,085.0 37.6
Wheat (INR/quintal) 2,067.7 2,040.4 1.3 1,780.1 16.2 2,292.5 2,042.8 12.2
SMP (USD/CWT) 177.2 152.2 16.5 131.4 34.8 180.8 159.9 13.1
Barley (INR/quintal) 2,454.9 2,347.7 4.6 1,516.4 61.9 2,386.1 2,382.4 0.2
*Prices for end of Jan’22 Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

Exhibit 2: Revised EPS estimates


FY23E FY24E
Rev Old Change (%) Rev Old Change (%)
APNT 42.0 50.1 -16.2 53.5 58.1 -7.9
BRIT 66.8 76.3 -12.5 83.1 93.0 -10.6
GCPL 16.8 21.5 -21.9 22.3 25.5 -12.5
HUVR 39.1 43.6 -10.3 45.7 49.9 -8.4
NEST 259.9 266.8 -2.6 299.8 312.0 -3.9
PIDI 26.9 32.2 -16.5 36.1 38.1 -5.2
UBBL 17.8 21.4 -16.8 23.4 26.3 -11.0
UNSP 13.1 14.7 -10.9 16.9 18.3 -7.7
Source: MOFSL

Exhibit 3: Comparative valuations


Mcap CMP TP EPS (INR) EPS CAGR P/E (x)
Companies Rating (INR b) (INR) (INR) FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22-24E (%) FY23E FY24E
APNT Neutral 2,613 2,875 2,700 34.6 42.0 53.5 24.3 68.4 53.7
BRIT Buy 748 3,126 3,740 63.1 66.8 83.1 14.8 46.8 37.6
GCPL Buy 718 703 1,000 17.5 16.8 22.3 12.9 41.9 31.5
HUVR Buy 4,577 1,998 2,500 37.0 39.1 45.7 11.1 51.1 43.7
NEST* Neutral 1,668 17,147 18,700 240.8 259.9 299.8 11.6 66.0 57.2
PIDI Neutral 1,119 2,239 2,000 25.2 26.9 36.1 19.7 83.1 62.0
UBBL Sell 356 1,399 1,100 12.6 17.8 23.4 36.3 78.7 59.9
UNSP Neutral 573 818 760 11.5 13.1 16.9 21.2 62.6 48.4
*Dec-year ending Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL

9 March 2022 4
Consumer

Explanation of Investment Rating


Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15%
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL < - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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9 March 2022 5
Consumer

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The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

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