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Consumer: Commodity Cost Inflation Inflicts Earnings Cuts
Consumer: Commodity Cost Inflation Inflicts Earnings Cuts
Consumer
Commodity cost inflation inflicts earnings cuts
Geopolitical crisis leads to material cost pressures
Consumer Staples have underperformed over the last couple of years largely battered
Change in EPS estimates (%)
Company FY23E FY24E by unprecedented and broad-based material cost increases. The COVID-induced
APNT -16.2 -7.9 restrictions imposed in urban centers and disruptions to the modern trade (MT)
BRIT -12.5 -10.6 channel also led to lower premium product sales.
GCPL -21.9 -12.5 In recent months, MT has rebounded to near normalcy in tandem with the gradual
HUVR -10.3 -8.4 lifting of COVID-led restrictions. However, the ongoing geopolitical crisis has led to a
NEST -2.6 -3.9
further build-up of material cost pressures, which has been quite steep in some cases.
PIDI -16.5 -5.2
UBBL -16.8 -11.0 As indicated in our commodity cost update last week, several commodities such as
UNSP -10.9 -7.7 crude, palm oil, and barley have witnessed an extremely steep increase sequentially
with end of Feb’22 prices being sharply higher than Dec’21 quarter averages. We also
indicated UBBL’s vulnerability to prevailing high barley costs in another note published
in the preceding week. Agri commodities, barring palm oil, had been benign earlier but
are witnessing a sequential upswing as well.
With several companies having already taken sharp price hikes until 3QFY22 (with
some more in Jan-Feb’22 in a few cases), slowing rural and bottom-of-pyramid
demand would make them wary of passing on the recent sharp commodity cost
increases. We have reduced our estimates for eight of the 23 companies in our
coverage that are more vulnerable to recent developments. The remaining companies
are less adversely affected and changes to these will be made as part of our 4QFY22
preview, after observing the movement of commodity prices until then.
Changes to our EPS forecasts are largely operating margin driven and have led to an
average reduction of ~13%/~8% in FY23/FY24 EPS for these eight companies. Existing
stock of lower-cost RM inventory may not dent 4QFY22 estimates materially. The
highest FY23E EPS cuts have been taken for GCPL (-22%), UBBL (-17%), APNT (-16%),
and PIDI (-16%) while NEST has been the least affected (3%/4% cut in CY22E/CY23E
EPS) due to its relatively higher pricing power. If inflation persists at prevailing levels
or higher for the next few months, there could be more cuts not only to our FY23E EPS
but also to our FY24E EPS (sharper cuts than the ones already assumed). Petrol and
diesel price hikes, likely in next few days, would also impact margins of consumer
companies adversely (due to transport/logistics costs) along with crude-related
packaging costs.
We have also cut our FY24E target multiples for APNT and PIDI from 60x/65x to
50x/55x. Both of these stocks were significant beneficiaries of the re-rating in recent
years but intense commodity cost pressures in the recent quarters have made their
earnings more susceptible than peers, especially if crude costs sustain at high levels
for a few more months.
GCPL, DABUR, and MRCO remain our top picks among Staples. While estimate cuts to
GCPL are sharp due to the unexpected steep surge in palm oil costs along with some
caution on growth and margins in its Africa business (because of sharp inflation), the
turnaround story is evidently intact. We had reiterated in a detailed note in Jan’22 on
the building blocks in place (for GCPL) for sustained topline and earnings growth.
Valuations here are inexpensive despite earnings cuts. DABUR and MRCO are less
adversely affected by the ongoing commodities surge. We had also highlighted the
strong investment case for DABUR in a detailed note last month. Within
discretionaries, we like TTAN, JUBI and DEVYANI. Demand outlook is buoyant and
commodity costs are not worrying yet.
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increases in palm oil and crude costs (which also affects LAB used in detergents),
management’s earlier expectations of commodity cost stability/ decline in
2HCY22 is likely to get pushed back further. We also need to monitor if
persistent inflation ends up impacting premiumization or causes significant
down-trading in Staples, the latter has not been a factor so far.
We believe HUVR’s earnings growth will bounce back to mid-teen levels once
TiO2 price (INR/kg) 444 the abovementioned worries ebb. However, uncertainty remains over the next
couple of quarters. We maintain our BUY rating; however, HUVR does not
feature among our top picks for now.
250
Asian Paints and Pidilite
Crude-related RMs and chemicals adversely affected by supply chain issues form
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In light of the above arguments, we have also cut our FY24E target multiples for
APNT and PIDI from 60x/65x to 50x/55x. Re-rating has also played a big part in
driving these stock prices in recent years and the stocks are thus vulnerable to
earnings disappointment.
We maintain our Neutral rating on both these stocks.
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Material cost concerns overall are fewer v/s peers and GCPL has more pricing
power with market leadership in other domestic segments such as Household
Insecticides, Hair Colors, and Air Fresheners.
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Consumer
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accounts for 35-40% of full-year EBITDA), we believe the prevailing high prices
for barley in Feb/Mar’22 would have an adverse impact on UBBL’s gross margins
for FY23E even if sales are buoyant for the summer season for the first time in
three years, as expected. We had highlighted risks of the same in our note
before the Ukraine situation escalated.
Glass bottle costs have also witnessed double-digit growth YoY (and could also
NCDEX Barley Spot see further inflation since fuel is an important component of bottle
(INR/quintal) 2,386 manufacturing), which will adversely affect both UBBL and UNSP.
The increase in price of aluminum cans was a key factor affecting 3QFY22 gross
2,010 margin for UBBL and inflation continues to be extremely steep sequentially.
Cans are ~15% of sales with bottles account for the remaining 85% for UBBL.
Sustained high crude costs could also result in higher levels of ethanol blending
and disruptions in ENA supply for UNSP in FY23E.
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With around 70% of the market for alcobev requiring permissions for price
increases from state governments (which are usually approved with a significant
lag), commodity inflation is even more of a bother for alcobev players compared
with other consumer companies with direct control over pricing power.
If economic growth gets negatively affected and crude costs sustain at these
levels, possibility of sharp excise increases by state governments in their state
Wheat (INR/quintal) budgets in March and April and beyond is also a potential worry. Especially on a
2,293 base of no material increases in FY22 budget in most states (unprecedented)
this could adversely impact net sales growth and margins further.
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companies were facing relatively benign agri commodity inflation until Dec’21.
Wheat, sugar, and SMP have seen significant sequential inflation in 4QFY22.
While the Ukraine crisis has led to a spike in global wheat costs, India is
expected to have a bumper wheat crop this year, which should keep domestic
prices in check.
Nevertheless, material cost inflation is higher than earlier expectations for food
companies.
SMP (US$/CWT)
BRIT, with its low gross margin, is especially vulnerable while the management
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of NEST in its analyst meet in Feb’22 indicated that commodity inflation is here
to stay. This was even before the Ukraine crisis that ignited further pressures.
125 We remain Neutral on NEST. While we have a BUY rating on BRIT, it is not
among our top picks (similar to HUVR) as the visibility on its earnings is lower
than peers over the next two to three quarters.
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