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Infosys: Business As Usual
Infosys: Business As Usual
Infosys
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
40,470 11,966 CMP: INR712 TP: INR880 (+24%) Buy
Business as usual
We attended Infosys’ (INFO) Analyst Day where Chairman Mr Nandan Nilekani
spoke on the recent whistleblower letter. Apart from this, management shared
Stock Info the imperatives for revenue growth and margin expansion. Key highlights:
Bloomberg INFO IN Just one of the many whistleblower complaints
Equity Shares (m) 4,571
INFO has received various whistleblower complaints in the past. However,
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 3033.3 / 42.7
since they turned out to be non-material, the company was not liable to make
52-Week Range (INR) 847 / 597
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -18/-9/-9 them public.
12M Avg Val (INR M) 6954 The company took cognizance of the recent whistleblower letter on 30th Sep’19
Free float (%) 86.9 and placed it before the audit committee on 10th Oct. Chair of the Audit
Committee has appointed law firm Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas to further
Financials Snapshot (INR b) investigate the matter.
Y/E MAR 2019 2020E 2021E Since then, INFO has not received any evidence to support the allegations
Net Sales 826.8 904.4 1,001.40 mentioned in the letter. The board remains extremely complaint on its
EBITDA 208.9 223.5 248 corporate governance policy and is confident about management’s capability
PAT 154.1 162.5 188.1 to function in an ethical manner.
EPS (INR) 35.4 38 44 Furthermore, the board has strongly condemned the mischievous insinuations
Gr. (%) 9.3 7.3 15.8 made by anonymous sources against the co-founders and former colleagues
BV/Sh .INR 149.2 154.7 167.3 alleging their involvement in unethical practices.
RoE (%) 25 24.8 27.3
RoCE (%) 21.7 21.9 23.6
Large deal-led growth strategy
P/E (x) 20.1 18.8 16.2
INFO has won USD5.5b of deals in 2H, implying an increase of 75% YoY. The
P/BV (x) 4.8 4.6 4.3
company stated it has historically always set a TCV target of USD1b for each
quarter. In fact, it has surpassed this target for five straight quarters now.
Shareholding pattern (%) Most of the larger deals still remain RFP-based, but pushing solutions increased
As On Sep-19 Jun-19 Sep-18 chances of winning a floated RFP for a similar type of problem.
Promoter 13.2 13.0 12.8 Superior wins have been a function of both the strengthening internal sales
DII 22.8 23.0 22.2 structure and the focus on pipeline.
FII 34.0 33.8 35.5
For strengthening internal structure, INFO has [1] simplified its sales process,
Others 30.1 30.2 29.5
[2] created best-in-class sales team with outcome-based incentive, [3] set up a
FII Includes depository receipts clear strategy with involvement of senior leadership and [4] focused on high-
Stock Performance (1-year) quality proposals.
Infosys Further, to boost its pipeline, the company has established healthy
Sensex - Rebased relationships with external sources like consultants (ISG and Gartner) and
850 private equity companies.
750 Exhibit 1: Strong deal wins with healthy renewals
650 New Deal Wins ( USD b) Renewals ( USD b)
550
1.6
Nov-18
Nov-19
May-19
Aug-19
Feb-19
0.8 2.2
0.6
1.1
0.6
1.2 0.9 1.2
0.5 0.5 0.5
1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20
24.1 24.9 25.1 24.6 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.7 23.7 23.7 23.0 21.4 20.5 21.7
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
6 November 2019 2
Infosys
Valuation view
It had been about revenue growth: Valuation multiples for IT Services players
have historically ascribed highest valuation to revenue growth, which is not
surprising – it is also the single largest lever for margins. So, as growth at INFO
has come down from 20%+ to single digits, the current forward P/E multiple
remains below its long-period average.
Longevity may be the offsetting play: As the industry shifts its gears to Digital,
there remains a tremendous need to up investments in technology across the
board. Companies partaking in this wave may not be materially outgrowing their
peers, but will still enjoy significantly higher multiples for the other key
determinant of valuation – longevity. Digital-ready vendors offer healthier
visibility of profits and cash flow generation today, while legacy businesses are
faced with the dual pressure of shrinking revenue pie. INFO has seen its margins
correct amid investments in delivery and sales capabilities to win in the Digital
era, and that has finally been yielding strong deal wins and improved revenue
growth – also reflected in Digital surpassing 35% of revenues.
Case for re-rating supported by example of Accenture: The test for Indian IT
has been stern than ever before, and we see growth from newer technologies as
a strong case in point for accretion of valuation multiples, even without the
acceleration in revenues. This is supported further by improved payout ratios.
Accenture, in our view, is a case study towards that end.
Valuation View
In essence, our analysis suggests that some of the allegations in the
whistleblower letter are not justified by the publicly available data (e.g., visa
costs, treasury investments). Moreover, we see some of the points as pure
business decisions (e.g. large deal margins) rather than accounting/CG issues.
As of now, we maintain our stance/estimates, and await further clarity on the
outcome of the audit committee’s investigation. Irrespective of the outcome,
we expect the stock to remain volatile in the interim led by concerns around
potential negative consequences.
We expect a CAGR (FY19-21) of 9.3% in CC revenue and 11.5% in EPS. The stock
price discounts FY20/21 earnings by 20.5/17.9—25% discount to TCS (on FY21
multiples). Our price target of INR880 discounts forward earnings by 18x.
Maintain Buy.
Key triggers
Continued pick-up in growth led by strength seen in multiple areas.
Turnaround in direction of profitability.
Stemming of attrition to historical norms.
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Infosys
Exhibit 3: INFO one-year forward P/E Exhibit 4: INFO one-year forward P/B
P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x) P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x)
Min (x) +1SD -1SD Min (x) +1SD -1SD
8.0
27.0 24.8
Jul-13
Jul-18
Apr-12
Apr-17
Jul-13
Jul-18
Jan-11
Jan-16
Oct-09
Oct-14
Oct-19
Apr-12
Apr-17
Jan-11
Jan-16
Oct-09
Oct-14
Oct-19
6 November 2019 4
Infosys
Revenue by offering
Digital 23.90 25.20 26.10 26.80 28.40 31.00 31.50 33.80 35.70 38.30
Core 76.10 74.80 73.90 73.20 71.60 69.00 68.50 66.20 64.30 61.7
Type of offerings
Services 94.60 94.80 94.60 95.10 95.20 94.90 94.50 94.60 94.30 94.30
Products and Platforms 22.40 23.60 24.20 25.30 26.70 28.90 29.30 31.40 94.34 94.34
Geography (%)
North America 61.1 60.6 60.4 59.4 60 60.3 60.4 61.2 61.6 61.4
Europe 22.4 23.2 24.4 24.8 24.3 24.0 24.2 24.0 23.6 24.1
India 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7
RoW 12.9 12.9 12.2 13.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.5 11.8
Clients (%)
Revenues from top client 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
Revenues from top 5 clients Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm
Revenues from top 10 clients 20.0 19.5 19.2 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.2 19.7 20 19.2
Revenues from 2-5 client Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm
Revenues from 6-10 clients Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm Nm
Revenues from Non-Top 10 clients 80.0 80.5 80.8 80.5 80.8 80.6 80.8 80.3 80 80.8
6 November 2019 5
FY12 6,994 1QFY17 2,501
12.0
15.8
1QFY17 80.2 84.0
8.9
2QFY17 81.8 84.7 2QFY17 2,587
FY13 7,398
5.8
7.4
3QFY17 82.1 84.9 3QFY17 2,551
6 November 2019
FY14 8,249
11.5
4QFY17 80.8 84.7 4QFY17 2,569
5.6
FY15 8,711
2QFY18 81.8 84.7 2QFY18 2,728
Revenue (USDm)
9.1
FY16 9,501
Including trainees
Revenue (USD m)
3QFY18 82.1 84.9 3QFY18 2,755
7.4
FY17 10,208 4QFY18 80.8 84.7 4QFY18 2,805
1QFY19 81.5 85.7
5.3 6.4 4.6 5.8 6.4 6.0
1QFY19 2,831
7.2
FY18 10,939
2QFY19 80.2 85.6
8.1
2QFY19 2,921
7.9
FY19E 11,799 3QFY19 79.8 83.8 3QFY19 2,987
Exhibit 6: Gradually getting past growth issues
9.4
FY20E 12,913
Growth (% YoY)
Growth (CC, YoY, %)
Excluding trainees
1QFY20 80.3 83.1 1QFY20 3,131
9.2
FY21E 14,104
2QFY20 81.6 84.9
4QFY19 18.3% Exhibit 11: Attrition declined in 2QFY20 but still high 4QFY19 21.4 12.2 4QFY19 1,568
SG&A (% of revenue)
6
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Infosys
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Infosys
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Infosys
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Infosys
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI:
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law
Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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