International Journal of Pavement Engineering

ISSN: 1029-8436 (Print) 1477-268X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/gpav20

Development of serviceability prediction model for

county paved roads

Waleed Aleadelat, Promothes Saha & Khaled Ksaibati

To cite this article: Waleed Aleadelat, Promothes Saha & Khaled Ksaibati (2016): Development
of serviceability prediction model for county paved roads, International Journal of Pavement
Engineering, DOI: 10.1080/10298436.2016.1176167

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2016.1176167

Published online: 29 Apr 2016.

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 International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 2016
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2016.1176167

Development of serviceability prediction model for county paved roads

Waleed Aleadelat, Promothes Saha and Khaled Ksaibati
Department of Civil & Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

This paper developed a pavement serviceability prediction model for county paved roads. Most county Received 21 September 2015
paved roads were built decades ago without following minimum design standards. The recent increase Accepted 4 April 2016
in industrial/mineral activities in the State of Wyoming required developing a pavement management
KEYWORDS
system (PMS) for local paved roads. The developed PMS used the pavement serviceability index (PSI) as Pavement management
a pavement performance parameter. The proposed PSI model for local roads is based on: international system (PMS); county roads;
Downloaded by [University of Tennessee, Knoxville] at 02:12 09 June 2016

roughness index, pavement condition index (PCI) and rut depth for flexible pavements only. Ten panellists prediction model; local
from Wyoming rated 30 pavement sections that were randomly selected at different distresses’ levels; agencies
using two vehicles (SUV and Sedan). The statistical analysis indicated that the seating position, age and
gender are not significant to the rating process. However, the vehicle’s type found to be significant. The
newly developed model from this study explains 80% of the variations in the PSI values of county roads
(adjusted R2  =  0.80). In addition, the new model seems to provide more realistic representation of the
conditions of county roads than the statewide model used on the state’s highway system.

Introduction When applying the WYDOT PSI model on county roads, it

was found that 68% of county roads are in very poor condition
A well-functioning transportation infrastructure is the key for
(PSI < 2.0), where there is only a very small percentage of very
economic growth. According to the Moving Ahead for Progress
poor roads in the secondary, primary and interstate systems. The
in the Twenty-First Century Act (MAP-21), each state is required
alarmingly high percentage of county road miles in poor shape
to develop a pavement management system (PMS). PMS is an
required that an investigation should be performed to determine
assessment tool for decision makers to optimise allocation of
the suitability of using the WYDOT PSI model on county roads.
available resources and prioritise the different maintenance and
reconstruction projects. Currently, all states have their own PMS.
The Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT) utilises Research objective
its PMS to maintain 6844 miles of interstate and state highways.
The WYDOT has already developed the following model shown
The Wyoming Technology Transfer Center (WYT2/LTAP) is in
in Equation (1) to predict the expected PSI for the state’s highway
the process of developing a PMS for local paved roads which
system.
are not currently part of the WYDOT PMS (Saha and Ksaibati
2015). There are 2444 miles of county paved roads managed { (
PCI
)}
by 23 counties in the state. Each state’s DOTs use a different PSI = 5.35e−0.0058*IRI − 4*RUT2 − 3 1 − (1)
100
pavement performance parameter for their performance mod-
els. WYDOT uses the PSI, while the Minnesota Department of
In the WYDOT model, PSI was considered as a dependent var-
Transportation uses the pavement quality index (PQI), (Janisch
iable. The independent pavement condition parameter variables
2009). The WYDOT has already developed a PSI model to pre-
include: international roughness index (IRI), rut depth and the
dict the expected PSI for the state’s highway system. In 2014,
pavement condition index (PCI). Figure 1 shows the obtained
the Wyoming County Commissioner Association (WCCA),
PSI values for the different roadway functional classes at the State
Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT) and the
of Wyoming according to Equation (1).
State Transportation Innovation Council (STIC) supported
The main objective of this study was to develop a statistically
funding to develop a PMS for managing county paved roads in
valid pavement serviceability prediction model (PSI model)
Wyoming. As a result, a comprehensive database was developed
applicable to county paved roads and compare it to the WYDOT
in 2015 by the WYT2/LTAP.

CONTACT  Promothes Saha  psaha@uwyo.edu

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
 2    W. A. EADELAT ET AL. 
106 78 177 239
4% 3% 7% 10%
1658 Miles
68% 187
8%
County
48 4 29
288 0%
2%
10%
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837
30%
1631 Miles
57%
Primary
Figure 1. PSI of county vs secondary, primary and interstate roads.
PSI model. It is important when presenting the condition of the
county roads to legislators to compare models that are similar to
the state’s system. This way the condition of the roadway network
can be reasonably deduced when compared to the state’s system.
The newly developed model is geared more to the decision-mak-
ers of the local county roads so that they can allocate funds to
the roads in the worst shape.
Previous research
The first major attempt to find a relation between pavement’s pro-
file and different roadway user’s perceptions was conducted by
the American Association of State Highway Officials (AASHO)
in 1960 (Carey and Irick 1960). A panel of 100 individuals rated
different sections on a scale from 0 to 5. These ratings were used
to develop two models (one for asphaltic concrete and the other
for Portland cement). The developed models correlate the differ-
ent physical measurements with the panel ratings.
The AASHO research effort led to the concept of pavement
serviceability; and considered the travelling public as the high-
way customers. The actual mean panel ratings were considered
as the present serviceability rating (PSR) and the predicted values
of PSR through statistical models were considered as the PSI
(Carey and Irick 1960).
After the AASHO Road Test, several studies were performed
using different devices to measure road roughness (Carey and
125 36 15
5% 1% 1%
420
17%
1166 Miles
46%
760
30%
Secondary
2 31 2
0%
1% 0% 2%
246
13%
1543 Miles
85%
Interstate
Irick 1960, Nakamura 1962, Nair et al. 1985). For example, in
1962 a comprehensive study was performed by Velma Nakamura
in the State of Louisiana (Nakamura 1962). The scope of this
study included 60 pavement sections that varied between rigid
and flexible pavements. The road roughness was measured using
Indiana State Highway Roughometer. Thirty raters with diverse
backgrounds were requested to drive vehicles similar to their
own vehicles on the selected sections and to provide their rating
regarding the ride quality only. Different models with high cor-
relation were developed using the analysis of variance (ANOVA)
and linear regression that relate the PSR to the measured rough-
ness. It was concluded that the rating panel method of evaluating
pavement serviceability is practical and applicable for rigid, over-
lay and flexible pavements. Also, variations of knowledge and
experience in the highway engineering field are not important
when selecting members for rating panels.
Nair et al. (1985) conducted a ride quality experiment to
incorporate the changing trends in passenger vehicles, and public
opinions of the quality of the ride of Texas highways. Twenty
panel’s members were selected to rate 171 sections (flexible and
rigid pavements) using 5 vehicles (2 subcompact cars and 3
mid-size cars). The road roughness was measured using three
different roughometers (Mays Ride Meter, SIO meter and 690D
Surface Dynamic Profiler). It was found that surface roughness,
vehicle size, vehicle type, vehicle wheelbase length, rater fatigue,
pavement type and maintenance were significant to the rating
 International Journal of Pavement Engineering   3

process. It was contradictory to the expectation that the vehicle Table 1. A sample comprehensive roadway condition database.
speed has no effect on the rating process. County Route BegMP* EndMP* Rut(in) IRI(in/mile) PCI
Regardless of the different roughness measurement devices Laramie ML1102B 0.620 2.110 0.14 128 73
that were used in previous studies; none of these devices were Laramie ML1102B 2.110 2.610 0.16 108 71
able to give a measurement that could be standardised to an Laramie ML1108B 1.354 1.499 0.15 60 100
Laramie ML1108B 1.499 1.616 0.09 115 100
acceptable common scale (Hudson et al. 1985). In order to estab-
lish a standard roughness measurement, the World Bank in 1982 *BegMp: Beginning Mile Post (Miles).
EndMp: Ending Mile Post (Miles).
sponsored research experiment. This experiment resulted in the
development of the IRI. The IRI is determined by measuring the
actual road profile, and then processing it through a mathemati- roads. The Wyoming T2/LTAP Center analysed the collected
cal algorithm. This algorithm, known as the quarter-car simula- distress data for each roadway segment. The analysed distresses
tion (Gillespie 1985), simulates the response of a reference vehicle data-sets were merged into a single comprehensive database rep-
to road roughness. The accumulated suspension deflections of resenting the average pavement condition by segment. A sample
the reference vehicle can be divided on the travelling distance comprehensive database is presented in Table 1. The IRI was
to provide an index in the units of slope (Shafizadeh et al. 2002). measured using the South Dakota profiler. This device is a laser-
Accordingly, IRI is considered a geometric property of the road. type profiler manufactured according to ASTM E950 specifica-
Hence, it is a time stable index which generates the same values tions and meeting class 1 requirements (Inertial Road Profiler
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when applied to the same road (Sayers and Karamihas 1998).
Later on, there were significant research attempts to develop
relationships between IRI and PSR (Al Omari and Darter 1994,
Gulen et al. 1994, Pologruto 1999, Shafizadeh et al. 2002, Hernán
de Solminihac et al. 2003). Al Omari and Darter (1994) per-
formed a study on 378 sections of different types from 6 different
states: Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico, New Jersey
and Ohio. They developed non-linear relationships with reason-
able R2 values. However, the developed models are biased and
invalid statistically. Because they were forced to pass through
PSI = 5 when IRI is zero (Gulen et al. 1994). In the same year,
Gulen et al. (1994) conducted a study in the State of Indiana.
Twenty sections (9 bituminous and 11 concrete) were rated by 10
randomly chosen raters. Twenty-one different prediction models
were developed for bituminous, concrete or both pavement types.
Consequently, previous studies developed models without
considering the particularity of the local roads. Moreover, there
are major differences between the state and local roadway sys-
tems when it comes to the expectation of serviceability. These
differences are crucial to develop a specific PMS for managing
county paved roads.
Methodology
This section presents the formation of the PSI model used in this
research. The developed model relates the present serviceability
ratings (PSR) of county paved roads to the different roadway
condition indices (IRI, rut depth and PCI). This process can be
divided into three major steps: (1) building a comprehensive
roadway distress database, (2) conducting a riding quality survey
and (3) regression analysis. Each step is described briefly in the
following subsections.
This research, like many previous studies, supported the idea
that the roads serviceability identification cannot be deduced
only from the physical measurements. The assessment of the real
roadway customers (driving public) is vital to inferring the actual
serviceability conditions (Shafizadeh et al. 2002).
Building a comprehensive distresses database
In 2014, a comprehensive data collection effort was conducted
by Pathway services Inc. on all 2444 miles of Wyoming county
2016). The longitudinal pavement profile for both wheel paths
was measured and analysed using the quarter-car simulation to
generate the actual IRI value. The average IRI of the right and
the left wheel paths was considered the final IRI. The PCI was
calculated based on visual inspection and observation of the road
surface; through a video log that represents the real road surface.
For every mile of roadway section, random 1000-ft. sub-seg-
ments were surveyed. After running the video logs through the
Pathways Services software, all the distresses’ features and their
severities were defined visually and input into the software.
However, the cracking was only considered in calculating the
PCI of county roads. The software itself was used to define the
deduct values; and perform the required calculations to deter-
mine the PCI value for each sub-segment. The average PCI of all
sub-segments was considered the final PCI for the entire roadway
section (Shahin 2005, Huntington et al. 2013).
Riding quality survey
A riding quality survey experiment was designed taking into
account the particularity of the local county roads. Road sections
with various roughness levels were included in the experiment.
A representative panel from the locals of Wyoming rated the
selected sections using two different vehicles on a scale from 0 to
5. The mean panel rating (MPR) for each segment was considered
as the PSR for that segment. General driving styles and transport
vehicle selection were very important in representing the normal
driving scenario on Wyoming county roads. The riding quality
survey should be conducted within the same time frame as the
pavement condition data collection (ASTM (E1927-98)).
Regression analysis
Different diagnostic analysis techniques were performed to check
the normality of ratings, outliers and homogeneity of variances
among the raters.
To test the normality of samples, the Shapiro–Wilk test was
used. This test calculates the W-statistics (Equation (2)) to specify
if a sample comes from a normal distribution or not. (Anderson-
Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests 2015)
∑n
( i=1 ai x(i) )2
W = ∑n
( i=1 xi − x)̄ 2 (2)
 4    W. A. EADELAT ET AL. 

where the x(i) are the ordered sample values (in ascending order) Table 2. ASTM approximation of MPR from IRI measurements.
and the ai are constants generated from the means, variances and IRI measurement (inch/mile) Approximate MPR
covariances of the order statistics of a sample of size n. 25 4.5
Shapiro–Wilk tables were used to define the P-value related to 50 4.0
the calculated W-statistic. The defined P-Value should be greater 75 3.5
125 3.0
than the critical P-value (i.e. 0.05) to consider the normality of 200 2.5
the tested samples. 300 2.0
The Bartlett’s test was used to test the homogeneity of the 500 1.5
800 1.0
variances between the different raters. The analysis tests the fol-
lowing hypothesis:
Ho: σ21 = σ22 = ……… σ29; where σ2n is the rater’s variance.
The test calculates the T-Statistics using the following equation: Table 3. Roadway condition indices used in sections of test selection.

∑k � IRI (inch/mile) PCI Rut (inches)

(N − k) ln Sp2 − i=1 Ni − 1 ln Si2
�
Less than 70 Greater than 85 0.3 inches or less
T= � ���∑ �� � (3) 70–100 70–85 More than 0.3 inches
1 k �
1 + 3(k−1) i=1 1∕ N i − 1 − 1∕(N − k) 101–130 Less than 70
131–170
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Greater than 170

k
Ni − 1 Si2
( )
∑
Sp2 = (4)
i=1
N −k Table 4. Panel size as a function of error.

where Si2 is the variance of the ith group, N is the sample size, k is Error (MPR units) Non-normal distribution Normal distribution
the number of groups and Sp2 is the pooled variance. The hypoth- 0.1 319 138
0.2 80 35
esis can be rejected and the variances will not be considered 0.3 36 15
homogeneous, if the value of T > X1−𝛼,k−1
2
, where X1−𝛼,k−1
2
is the 0.4 20 9
critical value of the chi-square distribution with k − 1 degrees 0.5 13 6
0.6 9 4
of freedom and significance level of α. 0.7 7 3
After conducting the diagnostic analysis, linear regression 0.8 5 –
analysis with multiple predictor transformed variables was 0.9 4 –
1.0 3 –
used in the development of the PSI Model. The general multiple
regression model, that was used in this study, is shown in the
following equation:
should be similar to the posted speed limit. According to the
Yi = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 Xi1 + 𝛽2 Xi2 + 𝛽3 Xi3 + 𝜀i (5) ASTM ( ASTM E1927-98 2012 ) procedure, a minimum number
where: of 20 sections should be selected for each pavement type. In this
Yi is the response variable; Xi1, Xi2, Xi3, are the predictor var- study, a total of 30 flexible pavement sections were randomly
iables; β1, β2, β3, are the regression coefficients; εi is the random selected, 3 at each pavement condition index level; to achieve a
error term. representative sample. Table 3 shows the different roadway con-
In order to investigate the performance of the developed dition indices that were considered in the study.
PSI model, a comparison analysis was then conducted between
the county and the WYDOT model. In addition, the developed Transport vehicles
county model was compared to a basic model that was developed
according to the ASTM approximation of MPR values (Table 2), In this study, two vehicles were selected: a sedan vehicle (2011
to confirm its validity. Ford Fusion) and SUV vehicle (2014 Ford Explorer). The four-
wheel drive (4WD) SUV vehicle was selected since the majority
of Wyoming’s locals tend to drive this type of vehicle due to the
Experiment design severe snowy weather conditions in the State of Wyoming.
The ASTM (E1927-98) standard guide was adapted in defining
the elements of this experiment. The experiment design was Panel selection
divided into three sections: (1) pavement test sections’ selection,
(2) transport vehicles and (3) panel selection. The panel size was selected based on the maximum allowed error
criteria defined by ASTM as shown in Table 4. The panel size
was defined to be 10 based on 0.4 MPR maximum error with
Pavement test sections selection normal distribution for the SUV vehicle and 6 based on 0.5 MPR
The pavement sections were selected based on homogeneous for the sedan vehicle. The panellists were chosen from different
physical properties that cover a wide range of roughness. The backgrounds as shown below:
sections were straight and long enough to maintain a fixed speed • 4 panellists: 1 woman and 3 men were selected from the
with a minimum of 25 s exposure time. Usually, the driving speed Wyoming T²/LTAP Center with an average age of 44 years.
 International Journal of Pavement Engineering   5

Table 5. Summary of Wyoming riding quality study.

Number of Number of test Standard Measurement

Location participants segments Test vehicles Index Mean deviation system
Wyoming     10     30 (Flexible only)     Sedan (2011) Ford IRI 78.8 97.3 South Dakota
Fusion), Profiler
SUV (4WD 2014 PCI 78.2 17.2 Video Logs
Ford Explorer)     Rut 0.184 0.09 Path Runner

• 3 panellists: 1 woman and 2 men were selected from the Table 6. Bartlett’ test results.
Civil Engineering Graduate Department of the University Parameters SUV vehicle Sedan vehicle
of Wyoming with an average age of 24 years. T-Statistics 13.797 9.215
• 3 panellists: 3 men were selected from the WYDOT X21−α,k−1 20.09 13.3
Design Squad with an average age of 22 years. α 0.01 0.01

The raters were given detailed instructions one day prior to

the rating day; and a short rating session in the morning of the Table 7. T-test analysis results.
rating day to build up the required sense of feeling the road SUV vehicle Sedan vehicle
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roughness. For the rating process, 10 raters rated the 30 sections Mean 3.348 2.716
in 3 trips; using the SUV vehicle and 6 raters, out of the previous Variance 0.403 0.323
group, rated the same sections using the sedan vehicle in 2 trips. Observation 26 26
Pooled variances 0.363
Table 5 shows a summary of Wyoming county roads’ ride Hypothesised mean difference 0
quality study. df 50
t stat 3.779
P(T ≤ t) one-tail 0.000209
Data analysis t critical one-tail 2.403
P(T ≤ t) two-tail 0.0004
The obtained ratings for the 30 sections were entered into a t critical two-tail 2.678
spreadsheet along with the different distresses for every pave-
ment section. One section was excluded from the analysis; as it
was under reconstruction during the rating process. The individ- The Bartlett’s Test was used to test the homogeneity of vari-
ual rater’s performance was examined by plotting the individual ances between the different raters. Table 6 shows the Bartlett’s test
panel ratings vs the mean panel rating. analysis results for both vehicles. Since the values of T-Statistic
After examination of each rater’s performance when com- were less than the values of X1−𝛼,k−1
2
, the hypothesis was accept-
pared to the group, it was found that rater No. R8 rated the able and the variances were homogeneous at significance level
sections higher than others. Therefore, he was considered as an of α = 0.01 for both vehicles.
outlier and was excluded from the data analysis (Figure 2). For The variance analysis results using F-Test showed that raters’
other raters, there was no major difference or discrepancy since age, gender and different seating positions are not significant to
all the points were almost lying on the equality line. the rating process (F < F critical) at significance level of α = 0.01.
The Shapiro–Wilk’s Test was used to test the normality of However, the T-test analysis showed that there is significant dif-
the MPR. The obtained P-Values from the test were 0.0688 and ference between the MPR’s using different vehicles (t > t critical)
0.0673 for the SUV and sedan vehicles, respectively. Since these as shown in Table 7.
values are greater than 0.05; the MPR data is considered to be Using Excel regression analysis techniques, and after consid-
normally distributed for the riding quality ratings using both ering several linear and non-linear models with various types
vehicles. of transformation, the following two models were separately
developed with a logarithmic transformation for each vehicle
type:
Sedan vehicle:
INDIVIDUAL PANEL RATINGS

5.00

4.00
( )
PCI
PSI = 1.185 + 2.892e−0.003IRI − 1.469Rut2 − 1.247 1 − 100
3.00
R2 = 0.80, MSE = 0.08 (6)
2.00
SUV vehicle:
1.00
( )
PCI
0.00 PSI = 1.219 + 3.3e−0.002IRI − 4.122Rut2 − 0.475 1 − 100
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
R2 = 0.76, MSE = 0.09 (7)
MEAN PANEL RATING
R8 Performance Unity Line
where:
Figure 2. Performance of rater R8 compared to the group. IRI = International Roughness Index (in/miles)
 6    W. A. EADELAT ET AL. 

PSR ACCORDING TO WYDOT MODEL

PSR ACCORDING TO 5
NEW MODELS 4 4
3
3
2
1
2
0
-1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1
-2
0 -3
-5 -3 -1 1 3 5 -4
PSR ACCORDING TO WYDOT MODEL PSR ACCORDING TO ASTM MODEL

Model(6) vs Wydot Model Unity Line Model(7) vs Wydot Model

Unity Line Wydot vs ASTM Model

Figure 3. New models vs WYDOT model. Figure 4. WYDOT model vs ASTM model.

Rut = the rut depth (in) 5

PCI = pavement condition index
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4
To compare between the developed models and the WYDOT

PSR ACCORDING TO
NEW MODELS
Model, both models were applied on the Wyoming county roads’ 3

data-set, as shown in Figure 3. It can be observed that the newly 2

developed models tend to give higher expectations than the
1
WYDOT model, which is reasonable since the WYDOT model
was developed for the state’s highway system; hence, it is more 0
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
sensitive to the different distress levels. Also, model (7) tends to PSR ACCORDING TO ASTM MODEL
give higher predictions of PSR values than model (6). This can
Model(6) vs ASTM Model Unity Line Model(7) vs ASTM Model
be explained since the SUV vehicle is more suitable for rough
terrains; and it makes the ride more comfortable to the raters.
Figure 5. New models vs ASTM model.
This is observed when compared to the normal sedan vehicle;
which resulted in a more optimistic model.
Furthermore, according to the 1993 AASHTO Guide and 2%
WYDOT’s ranking system for local roads (Huntington et al. 38 Miles
2013) a PSR value of 2 is considered as the threshold for recon-
struction works. Based on the WYDOT model, 68% of the local
county roads need to be reconstructed as mentioned earlier. The
newly developed models show that 15% for model (6) and 2% for 15%
model (7) of the county roads need to be reconstructed, respec- 19% 329 Miles
tively. This gives an indication that the WYDOT model under- 404 Miles
estimates the current status of the majority of the county roads’
network. The highly optimistic perceptions for the newly devel-
26%
oped models could be attributed to the fact that the Wyoming
572 Miles
locals are used to driving on these rough roads. 38%
In order to check the reliability of the newly developed models 824 Miles
and their validity for the rehabilitation analysis, the following
basic model was developed using the ASTM approximation of
the MPR of the same 30 sections that were used previously in
the riding quality survey. The entire data-set was used in the val-
idation process. The MPR approximations are shown in Table 2.
( ) Less than 2 2.00-2.50
PSI = −0.259 + 4.35e−0.002IRI + 0.237Rut 2 − 0.236 1 − PCI 100 (8) 2.51-3.00 3.01-3.50
R2 = 0.94, MSE = 0.02
Greater than 3.5
Figure 4 shows a comparison between the WYDOT model and
the ASTM model (Equation (8)). It can be observed that the Figure 6. PSI of county roads using model (6).
WYDOT model tends to give extremely lower predictions among
all the PSR values, especially for PSR values that are less than 3.5. model, model (6) almost gives the same expectations when PSR is
This gives another indication for the inadequacy of using this greater than 3; and higher expectations when PSR is less than 1.8.
model to predict the status of county roads. Meanwhile, model (7) tends to give higher expectations among
Figure 5 shows a plot for the newly developed models versus all the PSR levels. According to model (6), the predicted PSR
the ASTM model (Equation (8)). When compared to the ASTM values were very close when the PSR is between 2.0 and 3.0. This

indicates that model (6) can be used for rehabilitation analysis’
purposes; since this range of PSR values is the prime concern of
the rehabilitation analysis (Gulen et al. 1994).
Figure 6 shows the current condition of the county roads using
the newly developed model (Equation (6)). It can be noticed that
it gives better distribution of the county roads’ condition among
all the PSI levels. It decreases the total number of sections that
require reconstruction (PSI < 2) and increases the number of
sections with acceptable conditions (2 < PSI < 3.5). This wide
distribution of PSI values, gives reasonable reflection of the gen-
eral satisfaction of Wyoming locals with the majority of their
county roads. This has great importance in the implementation
of PMS and the funding allocation process for the county roads’
network. It can be challenging when 68% of the roads are in very
poor condition to choose projects for rehabilitation, when only
15% of the roadway network is in very poor condition according
to the perceptions of the real county roads customers (Wyoming
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locals).
Conclusions
The State of Wyoming does not currently have a model to pre-
dict the serviceability status (PSR) of county roads. In this study,
a PSI model (Equation (6)) was developed for county paved
roads; based on the perceptions of Wyoming locals. The newly
developed model is statistically valid and may provide better
representation of the county roads’ condition; compared to the
Wyoming statewide model. The main conclusions drawn from
this study are:
(1)  The mean panel ratings (MPR) of local county roads
can be predicted reasonably from a wide range of dif-
ferent roadway distresses.
(2)  The seating position, age and gender of the rater are
not significant factors; while vehicle’s type is signifi-
cant in the rating process.
(3)  Using sedan vehicles is more preferable than SUVs in
conducting riding quality surveys, especially when it
comes to the rehabilitation analysis purposes.
(4)  Equation (6) can be used to predict with high cer-
tainty the PSR values for the county roads in
Wyoming; in order to identify the maintenance’s and
different rehabilitation’s needs.
(5)  PSI is a subjective parameter that is affected by dif-
ferent experimental factors (i.e. vehicle type, vehicle
speed). However, it surpasses the solely objective
parameters assessment (i.e. IRI and PCI) by consid-
ering the driving public’s perceptions. This difference
is crucial when it comes to maintenance’s and rehabil-
itation’s selection process.
(6)  Wyoming locals have lower expectations when it
comes to the ride quality of roads at the local system
compared to the statewide system.
(7)  In general, WYDOT Model (Equation1) gives
lower PSR values for the county roads; when
compared to a higher roadway classification which
can be misrepresentative in the PMS process of
county roads.
International Journal of Pavement Engineering   7
Recommendations
The newly developed PSI model (Equation (6)) provides more
realistic representation of the current condition of county paved
roads. In addition, it reflects the general satisfaction of Wyoming
locals with the majority of their local county roads. Hence, it
is recommended to use this new model in the PMS of county
roads. However, when comparing the condition of county roads
to the state’s highway system, the state model should be used for
both county and state roads. The methodology developed and
implemented in this research can be implemented in other states
with minor changes.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Funding
This study was supported by the Wyoming County Commissioner
Association (WCCA), Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT)
and the State Transportation Innovation Council (STIC).
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