Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

SAR-COV2 IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES: EPIDEMIOLOGICAL,

ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC INTERACTION, CASE STUDY
COLOMBIA (SOUTH AMERICA).

Deago De León, Euclides Manuel1; Rozo Garcés, Nicolás David2;

Rodríguez Miranda, Juan Pablo3

1.
Investigador. Centro de Investigaciones Hidráulicas e Hidrotécnicas. Universidad Tecnológica de
Panamá. (Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá
2.
Ingeniero Electrónico. Magister en Ingeniería de Control. Becario e Investigador en Inteligencia
Artificial. (Bogotá, Colombia).
3.
Profesor Titular. Facultad del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. Universidad Distrital
Francisco José de Caldas. Bogotá, Colombia.

ABSTRACT

This manuscript considers the epidemiological, environmental and economic interaction of SAR-
CoV2 in the case study Colombia (South America), explaining the virus and the behavior of the data
from infected cases, public health predictions, through the logistic method and nonlinear systems,
using artificial intelligence. The results of the estimates consider 2000 as a maximum number of cases
to April 11, 2020, and the incidence with the number of 6242 intensive care beds available, that is, use
32% of the beds for intensive care, which it involves implementing new beds in hotels, non-clinical
centers, adequate public areas, to attend to the expected cases. Medium and high-range strategies are
proposed to deal with the pandemic in tropical countries, as well as horizon strategies in public health
and economics. Additionally, a causal relationship is made with environmental sanitation and the
unexpected environmental benefits due to the pandemic. As more data becomes available, a better
prediction of pandemic contagion cases in tropical countries can be made using artificial intelligence
and thus adjust pandemic prevention, containment and buffering measures, in a period shorter than 60
days and apply resilience and mitigate contagion situations in no less than a year, until an essential
medicine or drug or vaccine comes out to completely relieve the infection.

KEY WORDS: SAR-CoV2, tropical countries, public health, sanitation.

INTRODUCTION

In 2003, acute and severe respiratory syndrome (SAR’s) generated 774 deaths and 8098 infected
cases, with an economic impact that contracted 0.1% of world GDP. In 2009, the H1N1
virus established 575,000 deaths and 1.4 billion people infected and generated losses between 0.5% to
1.5% of world GDP, especially in the GDP of economies in tropical countries ≤ 1.9%. In 2012, the
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS- CoV) was presented with 2,500 deaths and 8,500 infected
cases. In 2014, the EBOLA virus presented data on 11,323 deaths and 28,646 cases of contagion,
which caused losses to the fragile economies of Africa. In 2018, the influence (viral flu) presented
34,200 deaths and 491,000 infected cases. (Schield, 2020).

Coronaviruses ( CoV ) are single-stranded, positive-enveloped RNA viruses of the

Orthocoronavirinae subfamily, Coronoviridae family, Nidovirales order, and within them is SAR-
CoV2 which belongs to the Betacoronavirus genus (Peters, 2020), is a new coronavirus named as

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1833

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

COVID-19, it is a beta- coronovirus , it has incubation times between 2 to 6 weeks especially between
close contacts (Huang, 2020) , with symptoms of fever, constant cough, nausea, dyspnea,
vomiting, acute respiratory syndrome, among other symptoms, which can reduce pathogenicity with
viral isolates (Yuntao, 2020) ; This virus has a case fatality rate (the case fatality rate is due to disease
and the death rate for the entire population) between 15% and 30% (Zhou, 2020) , which is more
lethal than other viruses tested above and it is considered that every person is susceptible, and even a
carrier without knowing it, therefore it can infect exponentially 2 more people and so on. In
2019, SAR-CoV2 started in Wuhan (China) and the spread in Asia and Europe was extremely fast,
with dramatic effects with infections and deaths of the order 883225 and 44156 respectively in
180 countries, therefore, the World Health Organization (OMS) declared the public health emergency
and then a pandemic given that it has been reported in over 170 countries (Schield, 2020; Naji, 2020;
Gorbalenya, 2020; OMS, 2020).

In tropical countries, where there is only one season (summer) with bimodal events of the dry and
rainy season, where the air temperatures are relatively high ( ≥ 20 ° C) , high humidity , with climatic
phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña that they are recurrent , as well as the geographic,
ecological, hygienic-sanitary and social overlapping conditions , which favors the changing conditions
of the viruses, lasting over time and additionally (Padilla, 2017; INS, 2010; Getaz, 2016; OMS, 2018;
Delgadillo, 2015; Gutiérrez, 2008), with outbreaks of infection without rigorous control and
with poorly strengthened health systems; not to mention, the importation of cases of contagion from
countries with stations, in the air, sea, river and land terminals due to the continuous flow of visitors
and/or passengers, which are some elements to take into account in epidemiology of the infectious
disease in persistent tropical conditions including endemic pathology, given the possible expansion of
the contagion of this virus and in this way, effectively and efficiently reduce the epidemiological
curve of infected and therefore of deceased.

This manuscript analyzes the aspects of the incidence of SAR-CoV2 in tropical countries, especially
with the economic, social, environmental and public health interaction that influence the population
dynamics of these countries, especially in the case study, Colombia, South America.

METHOD

The method applied in this manuscript is the case study, through the observation and description of
the phenomenon, which considers the potential relative to the causality of social phenomena under
the SAR-CoV2 pandemic , the complex interactions of the economic, social, environmental and
public health, which impact on population dynamics, due to the exploration of the reality and events
of the pandemic, the contemporary aspect of contagions, causes, effects and the descriptions of the
theories of causal relationships occasioned. (Martínez, 2006; Hurtado, 2012; He, 2020).

DEVELOPMENT

Public health predictions in tropical country. Colombia case study.

Infectious disease predictions mainly include differential equation prediction models based on
dynamic and time series prediction models, justified by statistics and random processes. Some models
are too complicated since too many factors are considered, which often leads
to excessive adjustment. According to the feature s of the SAR-COV2, some methods estimate the
exponential growth of the number cases may be empirical (typically growth rate of 0.14) or

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1834

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

mathematical, or from another perspective as identifying Non- linear systems concur in large measure,
in order to predict the number of cases in the future, considered the following expressions (Nishiura,
2020; Nag, 2020):

f(s−e)
- Empirical model. Exponential growth phase. f (s−e,e) = T−e r e−ru
∫o 1−e−ru ∗F∗(T−e−u)∗du
a
- Empirical model. Logistic. Q t =
1+eb−c∗(t−to)
- Empirical model. Bertalanffy. Q t = a ∗ (1 − e−b∗(t−to ) )c
−c∗(t−to )
- Empirical model. Gompertz. Q t = a ∗ e−b∗e
dh (t) di(t)
- Mathematical model. Lotka Volterra. dt
= ah(t) − bh(t)i(t) + ei(t); dt
= bh(t)i(t) +
ci(t) − di(t) − ei(t)
- Empirical model. Non-linear Autoregressive (ARX): y(t) = f[y(t − 1), … , y(t −
na ), u(t−nk ), … , u(t − nk − nb + 1] + e(t)

The cumulative number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Colombia to March 31, 2020 is 906,
evolution shown in Figure 1. The number of confirmed cases has increased drastically in
Colombia since the first case was confirmed. The epidemic spreads to other parts of the country being
the capital (Bogota) as epicenter. According to the daily updated data in real time from COVID-
19 (NCG, 2020), two mathematical models (logistic model, Non-linear Autoregressive model ) were
used to carry out an adequate analysis of the epidemic in the country.

Graph 1.

Given that the main confirmed cases were in the capital (Bogotá), the trend of development of new
confirmed cases throughout the country is basically the same. Judging by the prediction results,
the two models can well predict the epidemic situation of COVID-19 (Alqudah, 2018), during and
after the later stage of the epidemic. Among them, the autoregressive nonlinear model is better
than the logistic model, as evidenced in graphs 2 and 3:

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1835

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

LOGISTIC MODEL:

Graph 2.

ARX SELF-REGRESSIVE NON-LINEAR MODEL:

A nonlinear time series ARX model has the following structure:

y (t) = f (y (t - 1), y (t - 2), ..., y (t - N)) + e (t)

Figure 1. Estimation Structure

Where f is a nonlinear function with inputs R (t), the returners of the model, which can have time
delay variables y (t-1), y (t-2), ..., y (t-N) and its non-linear expressions, such as y (t-1) ^ 2, y (t-1) *y
(t-2), abs (y (t-1)) (Gupta, 2014; Benzekry, 2014). When estimating a nonlinear ARX model from the
measured data, the returners of the model and the f structure or estimators are specified, using
different structures such as: neural networks, wavelets, and tree partitions, among others. For this
specific case, a two-layer feedforward neural network was used as an estimator for the nonlinear
model:

Figure 2. Neural Network Structure Created

Likewise, the linear regression of the established neural network is graphed to justify its validity:

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1836

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

Graph 3.

And the behavior of the obtained model is plotted, whose estimation percentage was higher than that
achieved with the logistic model.

Graph 4.

Once you have the results of the estimation, we proceeded to predict the number of cases to be taken
into Colombia over the next 11 days.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1837

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

Graph 5.

A maximum value of 2000 cases is estimated for mid-April, then the health system must be in a
position to predict or establish the necessary measures to deal with this number. The foregoing
considers that the indicators of the number of doctors per 1,000 inhabitants (4.3 in Germany, 4 in
Italy, 3.9 Spain, 3.7 Australia, 2.9 United Kingdom, 2.6 USA, 2.3 France and South Korea, 2 China,
1.5 Colombia 0.8 India (MSPS, 2013) are insufficient to deal with a pandemic like that of SAR-
CoV2. Additionally, some countries report data on intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (34.7
USA, 29.2 Germany, 12.5 Italy, 11.6 France, 11.2 Colombia, 10.6 South Korea, 9.7 Spain, 7.3 Japan,
76.6 England, 3.6 China and 2.3 India). The Ministry of Health and Social Protection in
Colombia (MPS, 2005; ACEMI, 2013), declares in 2018 to have 63720 total beds (50148 beds for
general hospitalization and pediatrics; 13572 beds between intensive and intermediate care ; 6242
beds for intensive care), which establishes little preparation to face a pandemic crisis, especially
in tropical countries , because 32% of the beds available in intensive care would be used for the
critical condition of the estimate.

Medium range economic and public health strategies

The strategies of medium complexity to reduce the spread or expansion of the spread of the SAR-
COV2 and protect the health of residents in the territory, are among others:
isolation social volunteer, avoid events of mass concentration attendance ( ≤ 10 people), suspension of
face-to-face academic activity in schools, institutes and universities, increase the number of tests for
the disease (≥ 5000 per day) (OMS, 2020), disinfection of common places or public places, personal
thermometers at each social confluence site, implement telework, deadlines to pay
mortgages, flexibility in credit lines, business support to SMEs, low interest rates, declaration of a
health emergency, reduction of the cost of the gallon of fuels, reduction of tariffs for the importation
of medical supplies , strict controls at terminals land and sea areas, coverage of drinking water and
collection of excreta and wastes solid to the entire population, increased resources for the health
sector, guarantee food supplies, strengthen connectivity in the population, implement telemedicine or
easier access to the health service and implement business aid to people in vulnerable conditions and
relief in the payment of domiciliary public services. (Hellewell, 2020; al, 2020; Lombardi, 2020).

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1838

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

Long- range economic and public health strategies

Highly complex strategies include extended compulsory isolation (includes curfew or prohibition of
people being on the streets), closure of borders indefinitely between neighboring countries, closure of
air, sea, river and land terminals, closures of leisure and recreation areas, cancellation of all kinds of
events, fines and/or economic penalties, social sanctions and imprisonment for citizens who do not
comply, fill oil reserves to the top, among other measures, increase public resources to combat the
emergency, state subsidies, reliefs in the tax commitments of people who are in permanent
isolation, but with the condition of the effects of public order, increased unemployment, consumption
of drinking water, electricity, generation of urban solid waste and weakening of regional
economies, imminent economic recession, however, the feeling of security in the cities it
increases. (Zhang, 2020; Kapata, 2020; Peters, 2020; He, 2020).

Horizon strategies of meaning in public health and economy

The long-term strategy is to find the medicine or vaccine that is developed to combat the disease,
increase investment confidence and increase the hope of improving situations, rethinking public
policies, reducing the condition of vulnerability of the human species and the implementation of
greater investment in science and technology for the mitigation of contagion situations such as what
happened. Additionally, the oxygenation of the local and regional economy is carried out
through virus containment plans, through the injection of economic packages aimed at informal
workers, small businesses, wage subsidies, deferral of taxes and vulnerable people. (Chen, 2020;
Peters, 2020).

Environmental sanitation and the causal relationship with SAR-CoV2.

In Colombia, the coverage of the public aqueduct service is 86.4%, sewerage 76.6%, electric energy
96.3% and the cleaning service 81.6% (DANE, 2019; García e. a., 2018); the foregoing establishes
that in populated centers, dispersed rural areas and some headwaters, the drinking water service will
not be available 24 hours a day, to apply the minimum sanitary measures recommended by the
OMS. In terms of environmental sanitation, it is important to provide drinking water and have an
adequate collection and disposal of excreta, since a correlation of gastrointestinal symptoms with
COVID-19 patients is not yet known, if a rate of 27% of patients of COVID -19 with diarrhea is
established. (He, 2020).

In the critical conditions of the health system due to the pandemic, for the 13572 intermediate and
intensive care beds, 468 m3/H of drinking water will be required (provision of drinking water of 800
L/bed day) and waste water dumping hospital (return coefficient of 80%) of 374.4 m3/H, which must
be treated appropriately.

On the other hand, in terms of hospital solid waste, in critical conditions of the health system, when
fully utilizing the total capacity of 13572 intermediate and intensive care beds at the peak of the
pandemic, there would be approximately 1832.2 tons per month (base of calculation 4.5 kg/bed
day (Rodríguez e. a., 2016)) of pathological waste, which would occupy an area of 0.08 Ha for the
final disposal cell (density for waste of 0.451 Ton/m3) and if you want to incinerate, it would be in
two modules (4 Ton/H each) and a volume to be incinerated of 15.91 m3/H. This hospital waste must
be properly managed in environmental matters, given the is infectious nature of this type of waste.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1839

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

The unexpected environmental benefits due to mandatory insulation measures.

Given the conditions of absence of anthropic activity (especially economic activity, given the use of
fossil energy sources), at least 90%, due to the measures taken to counter the SAR-CoV2 pandemic, in
environmental matters, presents benefits or temporary relief, given that the illegal traffic of fauna
species is reduced, the slow recovery of ecosystems in some populated centers, reduction of
environmental noise, reduction of greenhouse gases in a proportion of less than 25%, improvement of
air quality in highly populated areas, which is considerably good, due to the fact that public and
private transport reduces its polluting emissions by up to 20%, which generates a lower intake of
pollutants into the air (Rodríguez, 2016; García, 2016).

This leads to the rise of the partial panorama of climate change on the planet, due to reductions of
close to 50% of CO2 emissions and therefore an apparent stabilization of climatic conditions,
especially in the tropics, that is, a reduction in the high fluctuations in climatic variability (dry and
rainy season) and a noticeable reduction in diseases derived from aspects related to pollution,
especially due to poor air quality. However, at the time of reactivating all economic activity and being
in apparent normality, that is, after the recovery from the epidemiological conditions of the pandemic,
there is uncertainty regarding the possible drastic increase in CO2 emissions , which can generate an
even greater problem, that is to say a rebound effect, due to the conditions of supply and
socioeconomic demand of the affected countries, and it would be a crucial moment, for the boom of
the renewable energy sector, as a substitute for fossil fuels (Peters, 2020).

CONCLUSIONS

In tropical countries, there is not yet enough data to make a prediction of cases in the evolution of the
pandemic. The use of artificial intelligence techniques establishes an increase in the estimation
percentage of the cor
ona virus models. Once the sufficient amount of data is available, the estimation of a nonlinear model
with multiple input variables can be considered, in order to have a more generalized understanding of
the pandemic. It is estimated that by the beginning of May the outbreak of the disease will find
stabilization in the generation of new cases, this for the first cycle of infections.

At this juncture of the SAR-CoV2 pandemic, tropical countries must have resilience (ability to face
situations like the pandemic, while finding solutions to these problems) and counteract this invisible
enemy and at least mitigate contagion situations and in a time not less than a year, until an essential
medicine or drug or vaccine comes out to completely relieve the infection, but within reach of
affected people. It is a conjunctural moment for countries to take care of building continental public
policies to reduce vulnerability to pandemics, and from the high pressure of the human species
towards the planet's natural and non-renewable resources.

On the other hand in tropical countries, where decisions and health measures are taken to reduce
infections by the SAR-COV2 virus that preface between 45 to 60 days, causing effects possibly
adverse, in economic, social, cultural, security, environmental, epidemiological
and environmental sanitation are undeniable and with a high vulnerability of risk in the fragility of the
economically active communities and especially of the health system, in the attention of the cases of
critically ill patients.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1840

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors thank the World Health Organization (OMS), the Health and Social Protection of
Colombia Ministry, the Technological University of Panama and the Francisco José de Caldas District
University.

REFERENCES

ACEMI. (2013). Cifras e indicadores del Sistema de Salud. Cifras 2008 - 2011. Bogota: Asociación
Colombiana de Empresas de Medicina Integral (Acemi).

al, Y. e. (2020). Potential association between COVID-19 mortality and health-care resource
availability. The lancet global health, Vol 8. No 4. 480 pp.

Alqudah, M. (2018). A Nonlinear Dynamics of Coronavirus (CoV) Model and Stability Analysis.
Proceedings of International Conference on Fractional Differentiation and its Applications
(ICFDA) 2018. Amman, The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan: The University of Jordan.

Benzekry, e. a. (2014). Classical Mathematical Models for Description and Forecast of Experimental
Tumor Growth. France: HAL Id: hal-00922553. https://hal.inria.fr/hal-00922553v6.

Chen, e. a. (2020). Recurrence of positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA in COVID-19: A case report.

International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol 93, Abrl. 297 - 299 pp.

DANE. (2019). Censo Nacional de población y vivienda 2018. Colombia. Bogotá: Departamento
Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE).

Delgadillo, D. (2015). Historia breve de las enfermedades tropicales en América. Apunt. cienc. soc,
2015; 05(02). 304 - 309 pp.

García, e. a. (2016). Gestión ambiental en hospitales públicos: aspectos del manejo ambiental en
Colombia. Revista Facultad de Medicina, Vol. 64 No. 4: 621-624 pp.

García, e. a. (2018). Limitaciones del IRCA como estimador de calidad del agua para consumo
humano. Revista de Salud Pública, 20 (2): 204-207 pp.

Getaz, e. a. (2016). Enfermedades infecciosas y tropicales persistentes en población inmigrante

penitenciaria . Rev Esp Sanid Penit, 18: 57-67 pp.

Gorbalenya, A. (2020). The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus:

classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2. Nat Microbiol, 415 - 430 pp.

Gupta, A. (2014). Time Series Modeling with MATLAB. Application Engineer. USA: Mathworks.

Gutiérrez, e. a. (2008). Enfermedades tropicales transmitidas por vectores. Medidas preventivas y

profilaxis. Offarm: farmacia y sociedad,, Vol. 27. Núm. 6.78-89 pp.

He, e. a. (2020). Public health might be endangered by possible prolonged discharge of SARS-CoV-2
in stool. Journal of Infection, In press.

Hellewell, e. a. (2020). Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and

contacts. The lancet global health, Vol 8. No 4. 488 - 496 pp.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1841

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

Huang, e. a. (2020). A family cluster of SARS-CoV-2 infection involving 11 patients in Nanjing,

China. The lancet infectious diseases, February. pag 1.

Hurtado, J. (2012). Metodología de la investigación. Bogotá: CIEA SYPAL. .

INS. (2010). El abordaje integral de las enfermedades tropicales desatendidas en América Latina y el
Caribe: un imperativo ético para alcanzar la justicia y la equidad social. Bogotá: Revista
Biomédica. Volumen 30, No.2, Junio, 2010.

Kapata, e. a. (2020). Is Africa prepared for tackling the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. Lessons
from past outbreaks, ongoing pan-African public health efforts, and implications for the
future. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, April. 233 - 236 pp.

Lombardi, e. a. (2020). Duration of quarantine in hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection: a question needing an answer. Journal of
Hospital Infection, In press.

Martínez, P. (2006). El método de estudio de caso: estrategia metodológica de la investigación

científica. Pensamiento y gestión., No 20. 165- 193 pp.

MPS. (2005). Política Nacional de Prestación de Servicios de Salud. Bogotá. : Ministerio de la

Protección Social. ISBN 958-97166-4-4.

MSPS. (2013). Atlas de Variaciones Geográficas en Salud de Colombia 2015- Estudio piloto -
Resultados de ingresos hospitalarios a la UCI. Bogota: Ministerio de Salud y Protección
Social .

Nag, S. (2020). A MATHEMATICAL MODEL IN THE TIME OF COVID-19. Toronto, Canada:

University of Toronto.

Naji, H. (2020). Clinical Characterization of COVID-19. EJMED, European Journal of Medical and
Health Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2 - 6 pp.

NCG. (2020). SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). USA:
National Commissioning Group.

Nishiura, e. a. (2020). Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. International

Journal of Infectious Diseases, No 93. 248- 286 pp.

OMS. (2018). ABORDAR LAS ENFERMEDADES TROPICALES DESATENDIDAS CON EL

ENFOQUE DE LOS DERECHOS HUMANOS. USA: Organización Mundial de la Salud.
Departamento de Control de las Enfermedades Tropicales Desatendida.

OMS. (2020). Declaración conjunta de la ICC y la OMS: Un llamamiento a la acción sin precedentes
dirigido al sector privado para hacer .19-frente a la COVID USA: Organización Mundial de la
Salud .

OMS. (2020). Declaración de la OMS tras superarse los 100 000 casos de COVID-19. USA:
Organización Mundial de la Salud .

Padilla, e. a. (2017). Epidemiología de las principales enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en

Colombia, 1990-2016. Biomédica, 37(Supl.2):27-40 pp.

Peters, e. a. (2020). Understanding the emerging coronavirus: what it means for health security and
infection prevention. Journal of Hospital Infection, In press.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1842

Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology ISSN No : 1006-7930

Rodríguez, e. a. (2016). Enfermedades transmitidas por el agua y saneamiento básico en Colombia.

Revista de Salud Pública, 18 (5): 738-745 pp.

Rodríguez, e. a. (2016). Residuos hospitalarios: indicadores de tasas de generación en Bogotá, D.C.

2012-2015. Revista Facultad de Medicina, Vol. 64 No. 4: 625-628 pp.

Schield, M. (2020). Coronavirus Covid-19: An Analysis. Coronavirus Covid-19: An Analysis (págs.

1-15). USA: University of New Mexico. ASA Fellow.

Yuntao, e. a. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 is an appropriate name for the new coronavirus. The lancet, Vol
21. No 10228. 949 -950 pp.

Zhang, e. a. (2020). A Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Call for Action. Chest, In press.

Zhou, e. a. (2020). Full spectrum of COVID-19 severity still being depicted. The lancet, Vol 21. No
10228. 947 - 947 pp.

Volume XII, Issue IV, 2020 Page No: 1843