ATKI ENGINEERING LECTURE - IEL27

January 15th, 2022

BECCS (Biomass Energy and CCS)

in the Energy Transition & Climate Sustainability

New & Renewable Energy Session

Retno Gumilang DEWI

Center for Research on Energy Policy
Institut Teknologi Bandung
 International (2005), Ton C/capita
-Japan, UK, Germany 2.5
Introduction
-US 5.5; Canada 4.2
-India 0.3; China 0,6
-World (average) 1.0 – 1.1
Low Carbon Development Strategies
CO2 Emissions Reduction Challenge of Developing Countries
Developed
Countries
GHG emissions per capita

High Energy Locked-in

Type Development

Leapfrog-
development
GLOBAL 2o Target
Developing To keep the increasing of
Countries Net Zero Emissions Global Temperature not
- Europe (2050) more than 2o or 1.5o
Indonesia, - China (2060)
0.45 ton C/cap (2005) - Indonesia (2060)
Time
GHG Emission/capita from energy sector [Source: AIM training WS Asian LCDS Study , 2010]
2
 INDONESIA NDC & PARIS AGREEMENT

NDC Critically insufficient

Highly insufficient

Insufficient

2°C compatible

1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible

NEED FOR
DEEP-CUT

Updated Indonesia NDC (Nationally Determine Contribution) Remarks

Base Year, GHG Emission 2030 BaU Development Path not deliberated
% reduction of BaU
Sektor 2010 (Mton CO2-e) the mitigation policies
(MTon CO2-e) BaU CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2
CM1 Mitigation scenario & considers
Energy* 453.2 1,669 1,355 1,228 11% 15.4%
sectoral development target
Waste 88 296 285 270 0.38% 0.9% (Unconditionally)
IPPU 36 69.6 66.85 66 0.10% 0.1%
Agriculture CM2 Ambitious mitigation scenario +
110.5 119.66 110.39 116 0.32% 0.1%
International support available
Forestry** 647 714 217 22 17.20% 24.1%
(conditionally)
Total 1,334 2,869 2,034 1,703 29% 41%
*Including fugitive; **Including peat fire; CM1 = unconditional, CM2 = conditional
Source: Climate Action Tracker (2017); Indonesia Updated NDC (2021) 3
 Indonesia LTS LCCR 2050
and NZE 2060
LTS LCCR
(Long Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience) NZE (Net Zero Emissions)
3,000 NZE 2060
LTS 2050
2,500

2,000
Waste
1,500
IPPU
FOLU
1,000
Agriculture
500 Energy
Net emiss.
-

(500)
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

CPOS TRNS LCCP

• CPOS (Current Policy) Sumber: LTS LCCR Indonesia, KLHK (2021)

• TRNS (Transition)
• LCCP (Low Carbon Scenario Compatible with LCCP: Peaking 5 sector in 2030
Paris Agreement Target) with net sink FOLU Sector 4
 NZE 2060 Road Map
Dewan Energi Nasional
GREEN RUPTL 2030
Socio-Economic and Energy Demand Target

7
 Gross Output
350,000 Services
Projection of Population
300,000 Cement and GDP growth
250,000 Iron & Steel
Trillion Rp

Transportation
200,000 350 0.10
Other Manufacture & Construction
150,000 Chemicals 300 0.08
100,000 Textile, leather & footwear
250 0.06

Population, million
Fertilizer

GDP Growth
50,000
Pulp & Paper 200 0.04
-
Agriculture & Mining 150 0.02
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Population, Million
100 0.00
GDP Growth to 2010
50 GDP Growth (LTSLCCR & NZE) -0.02
GDP
160,000
- -0.04
140,000

2019

2037

2058
2010
2013
2016

2022
2025
2028
2031
2034

2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055

2061
2064
2067
2070
Services
120,000 Cement
Trillion Rp

100,000 Iron & Steel

80,000
Transportation ▪ Pandemic scenario requires an economic growth
Other Manufacture & Construction
60,000
Chemicals
of 5.64% (2021-2025) and 6.15%/year (2026-2030)
40,000 Textile, leather & footwear to get away from ‘middle income trap’ to become
20,000 Fertilizer a developed country in 2043 with an implication
Pulp & Paper
- of a significant increase of energy demand.
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070

Agriculture & Mining

8
 HDI and Energy
Consumption
Human Development Index (HDI) vs. Energy
Japan

HDI ( ~ life expectancy at birth + adult

literacy & school enrolment + GNP
per capita at PPP) versus Primary
Energy Demand per Capita in tonnes
Indonesia 0.712 (2020) of oil equivalent (toe) pa [1 toe pa =
HDI : 1.33 kWs].
• Education
• Health Shoulder in HDI vs energy-use curve
• Poverty at ~ 3 toe pa [= 4 kWs] per capita

Indonesia (2020):
9
0.51 toe/capita/tahun
Projection of Energy Demand and Supply
and The Associated GHG Emissions
 METHODOLOGY
EndUse - ExSS

EndUse – ExSS Model

(GAMS, General Algebraic Modeling System) v 24.0

The AIM-ExSS model is used to estimate rational projections The AIM-EndUse model is a bottom up model developed by CREP ITB,
of energy demand (electricity) by the user side (industrial, NIES (Japan), and Mizuho (Japan) for solving linear optimization
commercial, residential, and transportation). equations for technology selection (up to unit level) with a minimum
cost approach and some restrictions (capability and availability of
Socio-economic indicators (input parameters to ExSS Modeling) energy supplies, technology penetration, emissions targets, etc.).
In the service demand projection, population growth, economic growth, economic
structure (industry), enduse of technology (electric appliances) used by consumers,
and consumer life style are energy drivers for the development of service demand.

Unit 2010 2030 2050 2060 2070 2030/2010 2050/2010 2060/2010 2070/2010
Population Persons 238,518,800 296,405,100 335,345,517 330,000,000 333,000,000 1.24 1.41 1.41 1.42
No. of households Households 61,165,000 76,009,178 93,151,533 106,060,606 101,515,152 1.24 1.52 1.73 1.66
Passenger transport
demand
bil. Pass -km 937,606 3,250,907 3,677,997 5,688,138 4,248,452 3.47 3.92 6.07 4.53
Freight transport bil. Ton-km 435,156 2,535,818 7,259,895 1,700,341 1,522,679 5.83 16.68 3.91 3.50 1
1
 Energy – Economics
•Export •Government expenditure •Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio
•Demographic composition
Linkage
•Import ratio •Labor productivity
Number of •Average number of family
workers occupants
Labor Module
Labor
demand
Wage Average
Macro-economy and Income Population and Household
working time
Industry Module Number Module
Private
Output consumption Time-use and Population
Consumption Module Number of
•Breakdown of household
consumption

•Population distribution
•Floor area per Commercial Transport •Trip per parson
output
Building Module Module •Transport distance
•Modal share
Floor area of Passenger and freight
commercial buildings transport demand

Energy demand Energy Demand & GHG

GHG emissions
Emissions Module

•Energy service demand generation unit Main endogenous Exogenous variables

•Energy efficiency Module and parameters
variables
•Fuel share
•Emission factor 1
Flow of endogenous variables Input
2
Methodology: ExSS Model

Back casting Approaches

1. 2. 3.
Setting Collection of Collection
Framework the base of LC
year Measures
information Information

5. 4.
Estimation of Estimation of
Snapshots WITH Snapshots
LC Measures WITHOUT LC
Measures

1. Driving Force Settings

2. Final Energy Demand
3. Primary Energy Demand
4. GHGs emission

13
 METHODOLOGY
EndUSe Model
Technology selection focus on : Energy Consumption
Abatement cost curve (ACC)
• Direct Coal Fired
• Biomass • Coal
• Supercritical
• Co-firing • Natural gas
Service demand • • •
Ultra
Supercritical
Geothermal
•
Oil
Biomass
- CAPEX
power
• Electricity • IGCC
• Hydro power • Geothermal - OPEX
• Combined cycle
• Solar power
• Hydro
• • Solar
Coal w/ CCS
• Wind power • Wind
• Biomass w/ CCS
•
(BECCS)
Nuclear power • Nuclear
• Other renewable

Pivot diagram (EndUse result)

Socioeconomic Scenario 140

(BAU & CM scenario) Energy Database Technology Database 120

BL - MtCO2eq
CM1 - MtCO2eq
CM2 - MtCO2eq
CM3 - MtCO2eq
100

80

• Technology lifetime 60

• Energy price • Energy consumption 40

• Population growth •
•
20

Energy type Efficiency

• Economic growth •
0

• Share
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

• Life style Energy constrain

• Emission factor • Technology price
• Electricity demand •
• Fuel availability Investment cost and OM cost
• Technological availability

Selection of technology and estimation of power generation capacity need to be done to meet
service demand (Hibino et al., 1996) and estimate the energy demands and the associated GHG
1
emissions released from the operation of the selected technology (Mikiko et al., 2000 ).
4
 METHODOLOGY
Abatement Cost Curve
2030 2050
150 150

Abatement cost, US$/tCO2e

Abatement cost, US$/tCO2e

100 100

50 50

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

(50) (50)

(100) (100)
Reduction quantity, MillionTon CO2e Reduction quantity, MillionTon CO2e
NDC-plus (1) NDC-plus (2) GPP Bridge 2Deg NDC-plus (1) NDC-plus (2) GPP Bridge 2Deg

Scenario GHG emissions reduction, Mt CO2e Average AC (US$/tCO2e) Scenario GHG Emissions Reduction, Mt CO2e Average AC (US$/tCO2e)
NDC-plus (1) 203 -8.61 NDC-plus (1) 582 -7.82
NDC-plus (2) 244 -8.12 NDC-plus (2) 622 -6.39
GPP 299 11.17 GPP 1,066 -0.11
Bridge 304 11.17 Bridge 1,784 -4.63
1
2Deg 306 11.74 2Deg 2,343 -6.08
5
 Final Energy Demand Projection
(relative to 2010)
20 Final Energy Demand
18 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
16 14.68
relative to 2010 value

13.59
14
12
10
8
6
4.01 0.89
4 2.59
2 1.42
0
Population GDP/Capita Final energy Electricity Non-Electricity
consumption consumption consumption

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Final Energy Demand Toe/cap/year 0.42 0.51 0.89 0.92 0.98 1.07 1.19
Final Electricity Demand kWH/cap/year 632 914 1,390 2,883 3,832 5,290 6,040
Electricity Supply kWH/cap/year 725 1,083 1,544 3,203 4,258 5,877 6,711 16
 Projection of
Primary Energy

Primary Energy
Mtoe

1,000
Other RE
900
H2
800 Nuclear
700 Solar
600 Geothermal
500 Biofuel
400 Biomass

300 Wind
Hydro
200
Oil
100
Natural Gas
-
Coal

17
 Final Energy by Sector Final Energy Demand
500 Projection by Sector & Type
Mtoe

Residential
400
Commercial
300 Industry
Transportation
200
Final Energy by Type
100 500

Mtoe
Electricity
- 400
H2
Biomas + ccs
300
Biomass
Biofuel
200
Oil (Petroleum Product)

100 Natural Gas + CCS

Natural Gas
- Coal + CCS
Coal

18
 GHG by Sector Projection of GHG Emissions
1,200 by Sector and Energy
Mton CO2e

Commercial
1,000
Residential
800
Industry
600 Transportation

400
GHG by Type of Energy
200
1,200

Mton CO2e
- Electricity
1,000 H2
Biofuel
800
Biomasa ccs
Biomass
600
Oil ccs
400 Oil
Natural Gas ccs
200
Natural Gas
Coal ccs
-
Coal
-200

19
 1250
GHG Emissions 2010 - 2050 Buildings GHG Emissions Projection 2010 – 2070,
1000
Transportation
Industry
LTS LCCR 2050 and NZE 2060
Electricity
MTon CO2

750 Total

500
GHG Emissions 2010 - 2070
250 1,600

MTon CO2e
1,400
0 Commercial
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1,200 Residential

1,000 Transportation
GHG Emissions 2010 - 2060
1250 Industry
Buildings 800
Transportation Power
1000 Industry 600
Electricity
Total 400
MTon CO2

750
200

500
0
2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
250

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 20
➢ Paris Agreement target in limiting global BECCS: Negative Carbon Emissions
warming to below +2˚C requires deep-cuts Mitigation Technology
of anthropogenic emissions.
➢ Most +2˚C scenarios requires BECCS to
curb down emissions in achieving net-zero
emissions and negative carbon.
➢ Power Generating Sector is the first place
to explore BECCS potential, considering the
potential size & flow of capture, and fast
growing electricity market.
➢ Sustainable feedstock supply is key for a
sustainable BECCS operation. LCOE
sensitive to price of feedstock (including
the transport).
➢ Spatial-explicit energy-economic model is
required to optimize the energy system
with least-cost approach. 21
BECCS in ‘Low-Carbon Transition’ of Power Sector
Main/Major Challenges:
• Energy security (accessible, available, affordable, acceptable,
sustainable)
• Significant reduction of coal (coal phase down) – stranded assets issues
• Large deployment of coal + CCS – techn. readiness & locations
• De-dieselization, phase out diesel oil in power with an implication no
biofuels in diesel engine anymore
• Deployment of BECCS– technology readiness & locations
• Deployment of large fraction of intermittent RE (solar PV) – grid stability
and base load ‘issues’
• Nuclear ? – public acceptance issues
• Balance of trade (more RE technology imports)
22
• Retirement PLTU mengikuti schedule PLN, remaining coal dilengkapi CCS,
implementasi BECCS
• Perlu segera menetapkan vision NZE
• Segera mengubah dari vision menjadi road map (termasuk regulatory road
map dan pendukung lainnya)
• Penyusunan road-map perlu menekankan konsep menghindari fenomena
“locked-in” sistem energi fosil (terpaksa terus menggunakan karena terlanjur
sudah invest)
• Perlunya road map R&D dan manufacturing

23
 S PAT I A L - E X P L I C I T A N A LYS I S : B EC C S SYST E M

Potential biomass Spatial data of available Selected BECCS

resource map biomass resources for technology & location
(GeoWiki IIASA) energy use under REDD resulted from
-biophysical model constraints BeWhere supply-chain
optimization

24
 B EC C S : F R A M E WO R K A N A LYS I S

Minimizing total cost of BECCS final product (electricity or biofuel) for region
welfare and minimizing cost for carbon capture and long-term storage (CCS).
Availability Feedstock Energy Transmission & Types of final
and types transport conversion distribution lines energy demand
of +CO2capture in different
feedstock Feedstock facility Long-term locations
processing CO2storage
Sources Power Plant

$ Electricity
T&D demand

Biomass transport
pre-/post-
$$ combustion $ CCS
CCS
Sequestration
Treatment
(pellets)
$$$
$ final energy
$ energy dense Biofuel for
Biofuel transport
conversion

Optimal selection for source of feedstock (type and location), means of transportation, energy
conversion technology, carbon capture technology, CO2 transport and storage.
25
 Power Generation Projection
2010 - 2070
Electricity Generation Energy Supply Mix in Power Other RE
2,500 Other RE
700
TWh

Mtoe
Nuclear Nuclear
Wind
600 Biofuel
2,000 Solar
Geothermal Geothermal
500
Hydro
Biomass
1,500 Biofuel B-30 (include diesel) 400
Oil Wind
Natural gas w/ CCS 300 Solar
1,000 Natural gas
Biomass w/ CCS 200 Hydro
Biomass
500 Natural Gas
Co-firing w/ CCS 100
Co-firing Oil

0 Coal w/ CCS - Coal

Coal 2010 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
2010 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Final Energy Demand Toe/cap/year 0.42 0.51 454.26 0.92 0.98 1.07 1.19
Final Electricity Demand kWh/cap/year 632 914 1,390 2,883 3,832 5,290 6,040
Electricity Supply kWh/cap/year 725 1,083 1,544 3,203 4,258 5,877 6,711 26
 2010- 2070

GHG Emission in Power

3,500
450 Other RE
MtCO2e

3,000

GHG Emissions, MillionTon CO2e

400 Nuclear
2,500
Biofuel
350
Geothermal 2,000
300
Biomass
1,500
Baseline LCP
250 Wind
1,000
200
Solar
Hydro 500
150
Natural Gas 0

2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
100 Oil
50 Coal

-
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
27
 3500 1400

1279
1273 1291
1286 1299
1297
1296
1258
3000 1216
1188 1200
1159
1119
1042 1042
GHG Emissions, Mton CO2e

2500 1007 1000

Intensity, gCO2/kWh
909
857
2000 798 800

1500 614 600

1000 400
300
500 195 200
90
48
0 11 10 9 0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070

2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Baseline LCP
GHG Emissions, MillionTon CO2e Intensity, gCO2e/kWh 28
 Other RE (tidal, ocean current, hydrogen)
Natural gas_Combined cycle w/ CCS
2000 Oil_Adv. Combined cycle
Oil_Conv. Combustion turbined
Oil_Steam oil power plant

1800 Biofuel_Diesel plant w/ biofuel

Oil_Diesel plant
Wind_Small onshore
Wind_Offshore
Power Technology Mix, TWh

1600
Wind_Large onshore
Solar_Solar PV-rooftop w/storage
Solar_Solar PV large utility scale w/ storage
1400 Solar_CSP-ST 6-9h storage
Natural gas_Natural gas steam generation
Natural gas_Open cycle gas turbine (OCGT)
1200 Natural gas_Machine gas
Natural gas_Combined cycle power plant (CCGT)
Nuclear_LWR (Light Water Reactors)
1000 Hydro_Mini hydro
Hydro_Medium hydro
Hydro_Large hydro
800 Geothermal_small
Geothermal_large
Coal_SC (Supercritical) w/ CCS

600 Coal_SC (Supercritical)

Coal_USC pulverized Batubara w/ CCS (PCC)
Coal_USC (Ultra Supercritical)
Coal_Sub critical
400
Coal_IGCC w/ CCS
Coal_IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
Co-firing_Pararel co-firing
200 Cofiring_PC w/ CCS
Co-firing_Indirect co -firing
Co-firing_Direct co-firing
0 Biomass_Small
Baseline
Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline
LCP

LCP
LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP
Base Year

Biomass_IGCC w/ CCS
Biomass_IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
Biomass_CFB (Circulated Fluidized Bed)
Biomass_BFB (Bubbling Fluidized Bed)
Biomass_CFB w/ CCS
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
29
 Energy Supply Mix in Power, Mtoe

200
300
400
600

100
500

0
Base Year

2010
LCP
Baseline

2015
LCP
Baseline

2020
LCP
Baseline

2025
LCP
Baseline

2030
LCP
Baseline

2035
LCP

2040 Baseline
LCP
Baseline
2045

LCP
Baseline
2050

LCP
Baseline
2055

LCP
Baseline
2060

LCP
Oil

Coal
Solar
Wind

Hydro
Biofuel
Nuclear

Biomass
Other RE

Natural Gas
Geothermal

30
 600
Natural Gas w/CCS
Other RE
Nuclear
500
Biomass w/ CCS
Power Install Capacity, GW

Co-firing w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
400
Co-firing
Biofuel (include diesel)

300 Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
200 Solar
Hydro
Natural gas
100 Oil
Coal

0
LCP

LCP
LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP
Baseline
LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP

LCP
Baseline
LCP
Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline

Baseline
Base Year

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
 Power Generation Mix
LTS LCCR 2010 – 2050
and NZE 2010 - 2060
LTS LCCR 2010 - 2050 Other RE NZE 2010 - 2060 Other RE
TWh

2,500 2,500
Geothermal Geothermal
Biomass Solar
Solar Wind
2,000 Wind 2,000 Hydro
Hydro Nuclear
Natural gas Biomass

1,500 Oil (PLTD)* 1,500 Oil (PLTD)*

BECCS Natural gas

TWh
Coal-cof.+CCS BECCS
Biom.-cof Biom.-cof
1,000 1,000
Coal-cof. Coal-cof.+CCS
SC+CCS Coal-cof.
USC+CCS IGCC+CCS
500 IGCC+CCS 500 USC+CCS
Coal conv.+CCS SC+CCS
Coal conv. Coal conv.+CCS
TOTAL Coal conv.
- -
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 TOTAL
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
*Biofuel content in PLTD 0% 0% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Population, Million 234 248 271 285 296 306 315 325 335 343 350
kWh/cap/year 32
810 959 1,088 1,589 2,258 2,932 3,780 4,854 5,923 6,279 6,724
 Deep De-carbonization will
LTS LCCR 2020 - 2050 decrease carbon footprint of
Electricity Production (kWh) vs Emission Factor (gram CO2e/capita)
the Grid network
Other RE
2,500 1000
Biomass

BECCS

Faktor Emisi Listrik, gram CO2/kWh

2,000 800
Electricity Production, kWh

Solar

Wind
1,500 600
Geothermal

Hydro
1,000 400
Nuclear

Natural gas
500 200
Oil

Coal - CCS
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Coal w/o CCS

Proyeksi NDC 2050 Transisi Deep Decarbonization Emission factor

Pathway

At present, power generation is mainly fuelled by coal, while other power plants use gas, hydropower, and geothermal.
It is expected that in 2050, the power sector will practically be decarbonized through:
− utilization of renewables (hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass) on a massive scale;
− most coal powerplants are equipped with CCS/CCUS; and
− biomass power plants are connected to CCS (Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage or BECCS) 33
INVESTMENT COST OF POWER GENERATION
(ONLY FOR TECHNOLOGY)
 Total Initial Investment Cost Total Annual Investment Cost
100,000
10,000
80,000
8,000

Million USD

Million USD
60,000 6,000
40,000 4,000

20,000 2,000

0 0

2045

2060
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040

2050
2055

2065
2070
2015

2025
2010

2020

2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Baseline LCP Baseline LCP

Total Cost (Annual Investment + O&M)

160,000Total Operasional and Maintenance Cost
160,000
140,000
140,000
120,000
120,000

Million USD
Million USD

100,000 100,000
80,000 80,000
60,000 60,000
40,000 40,000
20,000
20,000
0
0

2045

2060
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040

2050
2055

2065
2070
2065
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060

2070

Baseline LCP Baseline LCP

Terimakasih
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