CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Overview

This chapter covers the background of study, statement of the problem, problem diagnosis,

possible causes of the problem, purpose of the study, significance of the study, research

questions, delimitation and limitation of the study.

Background of the study

Mathematics can be defined as the abstract study of topics encompassing quantity, structure,

space, symbols, change and the other properties which aid in communication. There are many

branches in mathematics and one of these branches is probability. The word probable, likely,

possibly and chance are common in our everyday conversations. For example, we say “probably

it will rain today”; “the chances of Ghana winning the AFCON are more”; “that student is likely

to get first class this year”; “it is possible that price of fuel will rise”. In each of the above

statements there is a degree of uncertainty which can be termed as probability. Therefore,

probability can be defined as the degree by which uncertainty can be measured numerically. A

student considering probability with respect to sums of number from two dice is that, they

mistakenly believe that sums are equally alike. The study assesses the effectiveness of using

multiple external visual representations such as probability, Venn diagram and probability wheel

made to demystify level 200 trainees of Mount Mary College of education (MOMACOE)

difficulties in solving some probability problems with regards to procedure errors. This chapter

deals with the background of the study, statement of the problem, purpose of the study,

significance of the study, research questions and the limitation of the study.

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The fundamental concept and principle of probability is the branch of mathematics that enables

us to predict the likelihood of occurrences of event. There are many applications and uses of

probability in our daily life (for example, in marriage) so far as mathematics is concerned.

According to Nabie (2002), mathematics is part of life without which man cannot function well.

In science (meteorology and medicine), sports and business, just too mention a few are all

essential component of probability in mathematics curriculum. For example the teaching and

learning of probability as an aspect of mathematics is given place in the heart of the educational

curriculum in Ghana. Probability allows us to make reliable forecast and prediction even when

we have limited information. Probability concepts are very important tools in decision making,

statistical analysis during voting and in many research areas.

In marriage institution, it is used to predict the number of children (boys and girls), for instance a

couple may desire to have at least three children with at one girl. In this case the chance of

having at least one girl depends largely on the number of boys they might reproduce.

Probability – the area of mathematics that analyzes the chance of some occurring according to

Bezuk (2000); Probability is an integral part of the world today, in order to function in society;

everyone needs to have some knowledge Pereira – Mendza and Swift (1981). Probability is

recognized in many aspects of our live. For example when you were conceived, you could have

had any of 8, 388, 608 different set of characteristic based on 23 pair of chromos.

The concept of probability is also used in the field of meteorology to predict the rainfall pattern

in a year over a country, and this is one sources of knowledge that help farmer to strategize their

farming activities within the farming period to help sustain the growth of crops for every nations

2
In the field of sports and games when there is a football match, the concept of probability is used

to determine the position of the two opposing teams on the field before kick – off. This is done

by the referee tossing a coin. The chance of each team winning the toss is fifty percent in each

case. This helps to promote fair play in the game of football. In addition, the concept can be used

to predict the chances of a team in the field of play as a draw, lose or win, to secure the team

qualification in the tournament.

Probability is also very useful in business industry. For instance in motor companies if a

company has different branch of motor for sale, these motor are all likely to be sold. There is

also the likelihood that the company will expect higher prices for the sale of these motors. These

situations “all likely to be sold” and “higher expectation” bother on the concept of probability.

Furthermore, in mathematics class, teachers used the concept to guide students to develop

mathematics skills in a probability lesson and to generate games among students. For example,

student will be asked to pick a number of marbles of different colours from a bag; student may

desire to have a particular colour as red. The students chance of picking a red marble at random

depends largely on the number of red being bias among the other balls in the bag.

In an examination where true or false question is administered, if one guesses at random 10 item

test, there is only about a 30% probability that one will get 7 or more questions correct.

Understanding of basic concept regarding probability is becoming more increasingly in our

society due to the widely used concept of probability to man. It is imperative that teacher

education in the college of education produce human resource with sound knowledge and skills

to reduce the conceptual learning difficulties faced by teacher trainees in algebraic concept of

probability. In this regard, the study intends to focus on the use of probability external visual

3
representations. In the case of probability diagrams and concrete materials. The researcher

believes it will help bring the algebraic concept of probability to the minds of trainees to enhance

understanding and will also reduce enormous stress the go through during probability lesson as

they learn it abstractly.

However, the performance of teacher trainees in the examination conducted by Institute of

Education, University of Cape Coast, Chief Examiner’s Report (2010 and 2011) indicated that

only few candidates were able to solve probability questions. According to the report in the

college ninety – eight out of 200 candidates who wrote the examiner were referred in statistics

and probability course (2011) and research shows that such candidates could not answer any

question on probability.

In addition to this West Africa Examination Council Chief Examiner’s report indicated that in

1990, 1991, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009 and both 2010 both basic and senior high schools in Ghana

pupils and students hardly attempt questions on probability and those who attempted such

questions usually perform badly. The same reports indicated that pupils or students demonstrated

tremendous lack of knowledge on the concept of probability. Therefore, the researcher ascertains

the fact and attributed it to the way teacher trainees grasp the concept on probability.

Statement of the problem

Statistics and probability is a course in the first semester of the second year in college of

education in Ghana where about sixty percent (60%) of questions are set by the Institute

Education, University of Cape Coast, which covers probability. It was observed that most teacher

trainees could not effectively answer questions which involve probability during their mid

4
semester examination especially questions on probability with and without replacement. Hence,

the need for this research.

Problem diagnosis

In verifying the situation, the researcher conducted a simple test and unstructured oral interview

on the topic for some of the teacher trainees in some classes, that is2F, 2G, and 2H with a

population of sixty – eight (68) students where it came to light that about eighty percent (80%) of

the students had problem with questions related to conditional probability especially selecting

object(s) from a bag or box with or without replacement. Also the researcher assessed the class

exercises of the students and it was confirmed that about seventy- five percent (75%) of the

students scored below five (5) out ten (10) questions on the topic under study. The above facts

became evidence that, the problem really exist and this prompted the researcher to embark on

this study to improve students’ performance.

Possible causes of the problem

With a critical look at the evidence of the existence of the problems faced by teacher trainees, the

following factors are the likely causes of the teacher trainees learning difficulties in the concepts

of probability.

Many teacher trainees were not well grounded in the knowledge of the probability concepts

especially on conditional probability.

Most teacher trainees have misconception that probability is a difficult subject. Teacher trainees

have not being obeying and using the laws and principles guiding probability solving of

probability problem which is related to application of tree diagram.

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Language deficiency on the part of the students made it difficult for them to understand the

probability concept. Poor classroom management, like teacher – students relationship. Some

teachers are impatient when students asked them question to clarify points to them. Some

teachers just present the theoretical aspect without basis for any practical approach in teaching

the subject.

Purpose of the study

The purpose of this action research study is to find solution to teacher trainees’ difficulty in

solving algebraic concept of probability at Mount Mary College of Education ( 2F, 2G and

2H )classes. Since the do not understand this concept well, the study seeks to use probability tree

diagram through Guided Discovery Approach to enhance their understanding of probability and

develop interest in teaching and learning mathematics ( probability). More especially, to make

logical deduction, develop rational thoughts and draw useful conclusions on drawing with or

without replacement of probability concept in their daily life with regard to tree diagram.

Significance of the study

This study will not only benefit teacher trainees in probability solving problems in Mount Mary

College of Education at Somanya in the Yilo Municipal District in Eastern Region of Ghana but

also teacher educators and other students in Ghana.

The results of the study, procedures, recommendations and suggestions raised therein would help

teachers to vary their teaching methods. Student will be able to use diagrams and concrete

materials to investigate the algebraic concepts of probability. This will increase their

mathematics understanding and competencies on probability. It will also serves as a good

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reference material for the curriculum research development division for Ghana education service

(GES).

Research questions

To address the teacher trainees’ difficulties in solving probability problem, the researcher was

guided by the following research question

i. What difficulties do teacher trainees have in probability concept?

ii. To what extent can teacher trainees’ difficulties in learning probability concept be

reduced when solving probability problems using probability tree diagram?

iii. How can the use of tree diagram assist teacher trainees’ to apply the concept of

probability in their daily life?

Delimitation

The research was carried out only in Mount Mary College of Education for the second years

(Level 200D) students and hence cannot be generalized as the situations of all students in

colleges of education in Ghana. The study population and the sample size was sixty – eight (68)

students out of the total of three hundred (300). This number is not large enough to represent all

students of Ghana. With these instances, the researcher would have wished to carry out this study

at other colleges among the thirty – eight and other Senior High Schools to increase the sample

size of the population to find out if the students at those levels also had such learning difficulties

on algebraic concepts of probability.

However, the researcher happens to be on internship at Mount Mary College of Education, Yilo

Krobo – Municipality. Although the teacher trainees of Diploma in Basic Education (DBE level

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200D) were having topics of similar difficulties in mathematics hence algebraic concepts of

probability happens to be the most serious problem they faced when they were asked to use

probability tree and other External Visual Representations approaches to solve problems relating

to tossing a coin and a dice at the same time, picking a ball from a box or bag with or without

replacement and also how to use diagrams to describe events that are said to be mutually

exclusive.

More so, the study is strictly bordered on the use of probability tree diagram approaches through

suitable learning activities to support students to develop text comprehension, computations,

procedural and conceptual understanding in solving many challenging problems that are mainly

made up of single compound trials.

Limitation of the study

The researcher cannot use all the external visual representation to solve all probability question

due to times factor. The researcher us 68 of level 200 students out 300 for the test from Mount

Mary College of Education that the sample was not designed to be statistically representative of

the population of all trainees from all the colleges of education in Ghana. That is using sample

statistic to draw generalization. The data so obtained was self – report that is, teacher trainees

themselves were made respondent. Validity and reliability could have been affected. The

researcher limited himself to only Mount Mary College of Education, Somanya due to financial

constraints.

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

OVERVIEW

This chapter seeks to review related literature on the topic under study. It highlights on the work

of other researchers whose research works has bearing on the problem under discussion. These

were used as a guide for the work. The chapter is divided into three parts.

These include:

 Brief historical probability wheel

 Source of knowledge

 Some definition of probability terms used

Brief historical background of probability wheel

The word ‘probability is derived from Latin “probabilis” which means approval according to

Jeffery (1992) and was applied in that sense to opinion and action. The language of probability

today is the likelihood or measure by which something will occur or happen. Probability wheel

was first introduced by a great French man called La Roulette wheel

(Wikipedia.org/wiki/probability).

The scientific study of probability as a modern is to develop critical thinking in the classroom.

Asiedu – Addo (2004) and enhancing it with the use of probability tree diagrams and other

concrete materials such as probability wheel, coins dice and marbles.

Sources of knowledge

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Critical thinking is best developed through good instructional method of teaching mathematics.

Mathematics educators around the world have found that mathematics is better learned through

the use of manipulative and therefore should be taught by students experiencing it through

manipulative (Tooke, Hyatt, Leigh, Snyder and Borda – 1992). Throughout the research

reviewed, it was consistently stated that manipulative should be used through all grade levels.

Why then is this not happening?

According to Tooke (1992), the two main reasons for teachers not using manipulative in their

mathematics classroom were that the teachers were uncertain of how to use the manipulative,

and that they felt that manipulative instruction was inappropriate for students above the fourth

grade. Sherman and Richardson (1995) presented these reasons for teachers not using

manipulative: being unfamiliar and uncomfortable with the materials themselves, concern about

time constraints, possible discipline problems, availability of manipulative and their cost.

Children who centre the teaching and learning process should be involved in the process through

interaction with teaching and learning materials.

A basic assumption in the Professional Standards for Teaching Mathematics state, “Teachers are

influenced by the teaching they see and experience” (NCTM, 1989,p124).

According to Minta (2000), more emphasis on teaching are based on the theoretical aspects

while equal attention is not focused on the practical aspects of teaching. (Talabi, 2001) asserts

that nowadays teacher hardly conduct lesson with relevant teaching and learning materials.

Akogo (2004) was of the view that the goal of effective teaching is to be able to use exploratory,

concrete and meaningful methods to enable learners find answers to environmental problems.

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This ascertains the popular China saying “I hear I forget, I see I remember, but if I do I

understand”.

Therefore in studying the cognitive processes of probability problem solvers, one issue that

deserves special attention is the role of visualization.

According to Whitin (1993) good problem solvers are to be flexible thinkers and flexibility in

using skills and strategies is crucial in dealing with manipulation as a major process of linking

concrete representations of mathematical ideas to abstract symbolic representations.

According to Cai (2000), probability problem solving is not the only method of being able to use

pictorial representations. He analyzed and compare the responses of 144 sixth grade Chinese

students and 253 sixth grade United States students on tasks involving shuffling of a deck to

determine the probability of selecting cards from a pack of 52 in a sequence: black, red, diamond

with and without replacement. The study was designed to determine whether students’ success

during probability problem solving situations was dependent on the type of representations they

used. Students were required to show their work and explain their method. These tasks assess

their procedural and ability to comprehend the text. Cai (2000) further observed that majority of

the United States students used outcomes listing to determine experimental space while most of

the Chinese students used pictorial (tree diagram) and concrete representations. Analysis of the

students’ work revealed that a large percentage of Chinese (86%) than United Sates students

(78%) provided correct answers for the given tasks. In the nutshell, students who used some

representation to solve probability problem perform better than those who use theorem

irrespective of their race. Cai attributed the success of the Chinese students to their skills in

selection and representations. He therefore concluded that students’ ability to pick appropriate

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representations (task representation skills) for solving given problem situations is essential to

their success during probability problem solving.

Ben-zeev (1996) suggested that students’ errors are often systematic and ruled-based that focuses

on rote memorization instead of creativity. One way to reduce such difficulties is to help students

make connections between conceptual and procedural knowledge which requires constructing

skills, strategies or algorithms through the use of external visualization representation as a means

to an end. Wasik (1991) in solving probability problem.

Kennedy Owusu and Constance (2011) research into the use of External Visual Representations

such as tree diagram, Venn diagram, dice coin and deck to teach the concepts of probability to

enhance computation of probability problems solving during teaching and learning process

which is a credit.

However, in my opinion, the authors should have done better in students’ area of difficulty

especially in the area of conditional probability by using different means to tackle that aspect.

Hence, on the basis of the above, there is the need, and better skill, the necessity to undertake this

study of students’ difficulty using different means and approach.

Procedural errors inconsistencies in probability reasoning of many students with regard to

understanding certainty in the natural phenomena and that all events are likely to occur with a

degree of certainty should be made to understand the implications in probability problem solving

due to this, Garfield (2002) call for more research on the cognitive processes of probability

problem solving using innovative methods such as concrete material, hence the present study is

intended as a step in the that direction.

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Based on the above concerned and suggestions raised by some researchers, the researchers try to

manufacture his own concrete material called probability wheel to find out the extent to which is

can help to improve the teaching and learning of conditional probability specifically selecting

with or without replacement.

Some definition of probability terms used

Experiment: any operation whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.

Trail: is a single performance of an experiment

Outcome: the result of an experiment

Sample space(S): is the set of all possible outcomes of a trial

Event (E): is a collection of sample points with a common property

Compound events: event that combined the word “or” and “and”. In probability “or” means

union (addition) and “and” means intersection (multiplication)

Summary

Although Constance Seshie Senam (June, 2011), in her thesis researched and came out that

students difficulties in solving probability questions is due to language deficiency. Therefore she

suggested that teachers should guide and direct students to polish up their skills of language

proficiencies and level of literacy development by learning lists of new keywords and probability

terminology.

Her opinion is laudable, but l would also like to research into the use of External Visual

representation to teach probability concept.

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The way in which students originally learn probability play an important role in determining

whether they able and willing to use tree diagram subsequently to help understand the world

around them. The effective way for students to learn probability and solve problems is by

making probability problem solving inherently interesting and useful through tree diagram to the

students both in and outside the classroom. Students should be encouraged to solve probability

problem using a variety of strategies as tree diagram has that intended direction. Students should

be taught probability in a way that will encourage problem solving. They should be exposed to

many probability problem solving strategies.

Furthermore, they should be encouraged to think about general strategies that would help to

solve problems. These strategies according to Willoughbly (1990), help students in probability

problem solving. These strategies may include game, teachers should introduce initial probability

lessons through EVR materials such as coins, dice, tree diagram, probability wheel etc, that will

help student think critically and integrate them into the teaching and learning processes so that it

improves students text comprehension, correct computation, procedural steps and support their

thinking in probability problem solving abilities.

In light of the research work done on tree diagram as a strategy in teaching and learning

probability in mathematics classrooms, it appears that it has been fairly successful in its intended

achievements.

Above all, the integration of all the different function of that separate representation into single

system is what the use tree diagram in probability can provide such coherent solution to some of

the most challenging problems in probability problem solving.

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 CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.0 Overview

This chapter opens with a discussion of the research design following by population and the

method of sampling. The procedure used in collecting the data, discussion of instrument used

together with the formula.

It also describes the intervention adopted, Implementation, Data collection and Method of Data

Analysis adopted for the study.

3.1 Research Design

The research design used for the study was an action research, since it seeks to enhance students

understanding on the concept of probability that is selecting with or without replacement. It

concerned solving problem using concrete materials in real life situations. According to

(Rapoport, 1970) using scientific methods to solve practical problems is a way that contributes to

general social science theory and knowledge.

A case study of selected second year Diploma in Basic Education classes (DBE) namely 2F, 2G

and 2H of Mount Mary College of Education is to help students improve the understanding on

the concept of probability that is conditional probability (selecting with or without replacement)

using tree diagram.

First pre–test was conducted to reveal the understanding of student’s knowledge on “conditional

probability’’. By the end of the experimental teaching which lasted for two weeks, the post test

was administered. The test was meant to obtain scores which would be analyzed to find out

15
whether there was some improvement of understanding the concept on the topic conditional

probability (selecting with or without replacement) by students using the tree diagram.

3.2 Population and Sampling

The subjects for the study were selected from DBE 2F, 2G and 2H classes of Mount Mary

College of Education. For a representative sample of the population, the researcher used the three

classes in which he was teaching out of six classes.

3.3 Research Instrument

The instrument that the researcher used in the collection of the data was Teacher Made Test (Pre

– test and Post – test) and unstructured oral interview.

3.4 Procedure for Administering the Questions

In administering the questions, each teacher trainee was given a question paper to answer the

best of their knowledge. They were given 45 minutes to answer the questions. Generally , the

questions were designed specially to examined their knowledge on Conditional Probability, that

is selecting with or without replacement. Students answers were marked based on the marking

scheme prepared by the researcher (see Appendix A). Each test item carried equal marks. The

test items were scored by the researcher and the total mark was 10.

3.5 Pre – Intervention Stage

The pre – test was conducted one week after a permanent teacher taught the concept, in order to

confirm the feedback received from students understanding when the researcher was sent to

those classes to teach them, the researcher designed five questions from their syllabus to examine

teacher trainees knowledge on the concept of conditional probability (selection with or without

16
replacement). In any case all the five questions attempt to examine how students will be able to

comprehend the text items and use correct procedural steps leading to accurate computations to

obtain the needed results. In a specific case, questions (Q) were to diagnose teacher trainees

knowledge on conditional probability.

Q1. Examined teacher trainees’ basic knowledge of compound game on three different events

on tree diagram and how to determine the probability.

Q2. Examined their ability to draw two different balls from a number of balls in a bag and be

able to use it to find the probability of picking a particular ball with replacement using

tree diagram.

Q3. Examined teacher trainees’ ability to draw three different balls from a number of balls in

a box and be able to use it to find the probability of picking a particular colour o f balls

(5) without replacement using tree diagram.

Q4. Examined teacher trainees’ text comprehension and procedural steps through the use of

tree diagram.

Q5. Examined their ability to use both procedural and conceptual understanding to obtain

correct results of unknown balls and apply concepts using manipulation materials through

tree diagram.

3.6 Intervention

The researcher used one instructional strategy thus through outcome listing, the use of tree

diagram to assist teacher trainees to actively engage in activities on conditional probability

(selecting with or without replacement) to enhance the understanding of basic knowledge,

17
procedure and skills for themselves. The intervention took a period of two weeks for the study.

The intervention processes started from first week of November 2012 with a lot of learning

activities like regular class assignment in groups and on individual basis, followed by post –

intervention design which ended on the third week of November, 2012. While teacher trainees

took their post – test on 16th November, 2012.

Introduction

The weeks activities and its description. The researcher introduced the conditional probability

and learning materials needed to be used and it was revised.

Description of the first week activities (Drawing with replacement)

Activity 1.

The algebra of mutually exclusive of two particular events and other embedded concepts such as

sample space, listing outcomes of events, counting techniques, total probability of a particular

even, classical approach of probability (definition), with replacement together with other related

procedures, and text comprehension, understanding were discussed through a probability worded

problem. Example:

There are 5 red pens and 2 blue pen in a bag. A pen is picked at random from the bag with

replacement. A second pen is then picked from the bag. What is the probability that:

(a) Both pens are red?

(b) Both pens are of the same colour?

Procedure:

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Teacher trainees were guided using probability tree diagram to analyse the conditional

probability which is selecting an object wit replacement.

(a) P (both pen are red ) ¿ P(1st red pen) and P (2nd red pen)

5 5 25
P (both pen are red ) ¿ × =
7 7 49

(b) P( both pens are of the same colour) = P(1st red) and P(2nd red) or P(1st blue) and P(2nd blue)

P( both pens are of the same colour) = ( 57 × 57 )+( 27 × 72 )= 2949

Description of the 2nd week (Drawing without replacement)

Activity II

Teacher trainees were assisted to perform activity based on conditional probability with drawing

an object from a bag without replacement using the probability tree diagram that is :

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A bag contains 4 red , 5 blue and 7 green balls, which are identical except for colour. A ball is

selected at random, the colour is noted and it is not replaced in the bag. A second ball is selected

at random from those remaining in the bag. Find the probability that the balls selected are:

(a) Both red

(b) Both of the same colour

Probability tree diagram

20
 4 3 1
(a) Probability that both ball are red = × =
16 15 20

(b) Probability that both balls are of the same colour = ( 164 × 153 )+( 165 × 154 )+( 167 × 156 )
1 1 7 37
= + + =
20 12 40 120

3.7 Post – Intervention stage

A post – test (see Appendix C for the post – test questions) of five questions were administered

after the intervention was successfully presented. The test helped to find out if teacher trainees

had improved upon their conceptual and procedural errors in probability concepts. Teacher

trainees were to answer the questions in thirty minutes. The post – test revealed that teacher

trainees’ performance have improved tremendously as compared to the pre - test. (See

Appendix D for answers and marking scheme to post – test questions).

3.8 Data collection

The data collection methods include; Teacher Made Test, Observation of students during lessons,

unstructured oral interview and use of sample work. The researcher used the following as

instrument for the data collection for the pre – intervention, intervention and post – intervention.

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 CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT

4.0 Overview

This chapter covers data presentation, analysis and discussion of results from the pre – test and

post test results. The data were presented in tables and graphical focus and then discussed. As

indicated in chapter 3, the major aim of the study was to investigate the extent to which the use

of probability tree diagram and probability wheel can assist teacher trainees improve their

understanding on conditional probability of selecting with or without replacement.

4.1 Data Analysis

The total mark for both the pre – test and post – test were scored over 10 marks and the marks

obtained by students were group into three categories as follows: marks 0 – 3 Below Average, 4

– 6 Average, 7 – 10 Above Average. The pre – test were made up of 5 questions. The marks

were recorded and analyzed.

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4.2 Analysis of the Pre – test Result

In this section, the result of the pre – test has been presented in table and analyzed.

Table 4.2.1 : Pre – test scores show Teacher Trainees Performance.

Question No. No. of teacher trainees Teacher trainees percentage (%)

1 29 43

2 39 57

3 34 50

4 22 33

5 20 30

No. of teacher trainees =68 mean = 4.09

4.3 Question by Question Analysis of the Pre – test

Question 1

29 students in the class out of 68 student got question one correct and it represents 43% of the

students in the class. The remaining 39 representing 57% , got it wrong because they were not

able to use probability tree diagram to represent a draw of three set and determine the sample

space.

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Question 2

39 out of 68 teacher trainees in the class had question 2 correct and it is represented by 57% of

the students in the class. 29 out of the 68 teacher trainees representing 43% had question 2

wrong because they had difficulties of making a drawn with replacement of probability.

Question 3

34 teacher trainees were not able to solve question 3 correctly because some of the could not

understand selecting an object at random. The remaining 34 were able to solve the question

correctly.

Question 4

22 students in the class out of 68 got question 4 correctly and 46 had it wrongly. This is due to

the fact that, the 46 students had problem with the algebraic concept of probability.

Question 5

20 students in the class out of 68 students’ got question 5 correctly. The remaining 48 students

got it wrong because they were not able to interpret the conditional probability using External

Visual Representations well.

4.4 Observation

From the table 4.2.1, and also the pre – test analysis, it was observed that percentage of the

students who had correct answers to the pre – test questions were below average as indication of

24
a poor performance. This was mainly due to their inability to apply the algebraic concepts to

solve a given probability questions. Hence the calculated mean was 4.09

4.5 Analysis of the post – test results

In this section, the impact of the intervention show by the result of the post – test has been

presented in the table and analyzed.

Table 4.5.1: Post – test scores showing Teacher Trainees’ performance

Question No. No. of teacher trainees Teacher trainees percentage (%)

1 59 87

2 50 73

3 66 97

4 54 80

5 63 93

No. of teacher trainees = 68 mean = 7.07

4.6 Question by Question Analysis of the Post – Test

Question 1

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59 teacher trainees had question 1 correctly representing 87% of the 68 teacher trainees while 9

teacher trainees representing 13% of 68 teacher trainees had the question wrong. This shows that

teacher trainees now understand the concept better.

Question 2

Another improvement was recorded since 50 out of 68 teacher trainees in the class had the

question 2 correct. This is because teacher trainees were able to use tree diagram to make a draw

of replacement to the question given.

Question 3

66 teacher trainees representing 97% in the class had question 3 correct. This also reveals the

improvement that the intervention made of making a draw without replacement.

Question 4

80% of the teacher trainees got this question correct and the remaining 20% had it wrongly.

These 80% of the teacher trainees had it correctly because they were able to understand and

solved probability questions through procedures involving algebraic concept.

Question 5

63 teacher trainees out of 68 had question 5 correctly while only 5 had it wrongly. More of the

teacher trainees got it correctly because they were able to follow procedures and to interpret

conditional probability by using tree diagram.

26
4.7 Observation

From table 4.5.1, and also the Post – test question analysis, it is observed that the percentage of

students who obtained correct answer in the post – test questions is greater than the percentage of

students who obtained correct answers in the pre – test questions. The calculated mean for the

post – test was 7.07 as a clear indication of position change. This has revealed that majority of

the teacher trainees in 2F, 2G and 2H at Mount Mary College of Education are able to solve

conditional probability (selecting with or without replacement) with ease. Hence the intervention

has enhanced teacher trainee’s performance.

4.8 Comparison of the Pre-Test and Post-Test Results.

Table 4.8.1, Pre-Test and Post-Test compared

Pre-Test Post-Test

No. of No. of Teacher Percentage of No. of Teacher Percentage of

Questions Trainees Teacher Trainees Teacher
Trainees (%) Trainees (%)

1 29 43 59 87

2 39 57 50 73

3 34 50 66 97

4 22 33 54 80

5 20 30 63 93

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4.9 Question by Question Comparison

Question 1

Twenty-nine (29) teacher trainees out of sixty-eight teacher trainees representing 43% were able

to use probability tree diagram to determine the sample space correctly in the pre-test compared

to fifty-nine (59) of the teacher trainees representing 87% who answered similar question in the

post-test.

Question 2

Thirty-nine (39) teacher trainees out of sixty-eight students representing 57% were able to use

tree diagram to make draw of replacement of any given question correctly while fifty (50)

teacher trainees representing 73% answered the questions on the same concept correctly in the

Post-Test.

Question 3

Thirty-four (34) out of sixty-eight teacher trainees representing 50 were able to understand and

select an object at random using the probability wheel while sixty-six (66) teacher trainees

representing 96% were able to answer questions on the same concept in the Post-Test.

Twenty-Two (22) out of sixty-eight teacher trainees representing 33% were able to use algebraic

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Question 4

Concept of to solve questions on conditional probability correctly compared to fifty-four (54)

teacher trainees representing 80% in the Post-Test.

Question 5

Twenty (20) out of sixty-eight (68) teacher trainees representing 30% were able to follow

procedures and to interpret conditional probability using external visual representation correctly

compared to sixty-three (63) teacher trainees representing 93% in the Post-Test.

4.10a: Observation

From the table 4.8.1, it was clear that teacher trainees performed poorly in the pre-test but after

the intervention activities, they performed extremely well in the post-test. Below is bar chart

showing the comparison of teacher trainees’ performance in pre-test and post-test.

A bar chart showing the performance of teacher trainees

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Figure 4.a. gives a visual representation of the performance of the teacher trainees in the pre-test

and post-test of the five questions tested. The bar chart provides a more vivid and clearer picture

of the two results. The short green bars represent the results of the poor performance of the

teacher trainees in the pre-test. Whilst the long red bars represent the results of an improved

performance of some teacher trainees in the post-test. The bar chart above clearly shows that

there has been a tremendous improvement in the performance of the teacher trainees. However,

this change as a result of the use of probability tree diagram in the intervention activities.

4.10b Comparison of scores in the Pre-Test and Post-Test

Both were marked over ten (10) marks and the scores obtained by the teacher trainees were

recorded and tabulated as shown in the Table below.

Table 4.10.1 Scores obtained by students in the Pre-Test and Post-Test conducted

Pre-Test Post-Test

Mark No. of Teacher Percentage of No. of Teacher Percentage of

Trainees Teacher Trainees Teacher
Trainees (%) Trainees (%)

0–3 53 000 00

4–6 36 26 38

7 – 10 11 42 62

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Total 100 68 100

Marks 5: 0 – 3 Below Average, 4 – 6 Average And 7 – 10 Above Average

4.10.2: Pre-Test and Post-Test Marks Compared

Table 4.10.1 clearly shows teacher trainees, performance in the pre-test with an average mark of

three. Thirty-six (36) students representing 53% of the classes of sixty-eight (68) teacher trainees

scored below average. Twenty-four (24) teacher trainees representing 36% scored averagely and

only eight (8) teacher trainees representing 11% of the classes scored above average. This is

indication of weak performance after the pre-test.

However, in the post-test none of the teacher trainees scored below average. With twenty-six

(26) of the teacher representing sixty-eight (68) of teacher trainees representing (100%) scored

above average. This is an indication of a very good performance in the post-test after the

intervention.

The calculated means for the pre-test and the post-test were 4.09 and 7.09 respectively. The

difference of the means scored was 2.98 which clearly signify the change of understanding of

conditional probability (selecting with or without replacement) of the sixty-eight (68) teacher

trainees.

4.10.3: Discussion of results

Table 4.10.1, above the performance of the teacher trainees who obtained the correct answer in

each of the questions in the Post-Test is greater than the Pre-Test.

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The bar chart provides a more vivid and clearer picture of the two results as well as the two

means. The greater the mean shows enhancement.

 Guided Discovery Approach of teaching that was used in the intervention. Thus during

the intervention period, the teacher trainees were guided by the researcher to develop the

concept themselves thereby making them understand the concept of probability using

tree diagram to solve condition probability that is making any draw and without

replacement.

 Increase the number of exercise and activities adopted in the intervention, at the

intervention stages, several activities, worked examples and exercises were given to

teacher trainees after each lesson to do in order for them to practice well enough to

acquire the needed skills.

 Use of real life situations as examples during the intervention. Most of the examples used

during the intervention stage were from real life situations and since teacher trainees

learning from real life to abstract situations it makes them understand the concepts very

well.

This shows that there has been a tremendous improvement in the performance of the post-

test over the pre-test due to the activities used during the intervention. Teacher trainees were

able to use tree diagram, probability wheel to solve for sample space, find the probability of

events on conditional probability and also solve probability using algebraic concept correctly

in the post-test because the intervention was practical. This clearly signifies the drastic

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change of the sixty-eight (68) teacher trainees. From the above analysis, there is high

statistical evidence that, the intervention was successful as teacher trainees performance was

significantly improved at the end of the post-test conducted by the researcher.

Answers to research questions

After the analysis has been done, the following were deduced as the answers to the research

questions.

 The major causes of teacher trainees learning difficulties were text comprehension

errors, conceptual errors, procedural errors and computational errors identified in the

pre-test administered.

 Using the guided discovery approach and teaching and learning material in the

intervention actually helped the teacher trainee to solve probability questions without

difficulty thereby reducing the algebraic concept errors.

 By the use of probability tree diagram in the intervention actually reduced teacher

trainees difficulties in solving probability concepts. It helped the teacher trainee to

solve problems involving conditional probability such as selecting or drawing objects

with or without replacement following procedures correctly with ease which enhance

teacher trainees understanding of probability concepts.

 Also using real life situations and exercise that were administered to teacher trainees

after each of the lessons, helped teacher trainees to understand probability concepts

well as shown in the above charts.

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 CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.0 Overview

This chapter highlights on the conclusion aspect of the research. This includes summary,

Conclusion and Recommendations.

5.1 Summary

The study was an action research carried out in Mount Mary College of Education with the

targeted population of some second year teacher trainees. The researcher employed only classes

that the researcher was teaching, that is 2F, 2G and 2H size sixty-eight (68) from level 200

pursuing Diploma in Basic Education. The study addresses the use of probability tree diagram as

modern alternative instructional strategies in solving probability problems. With regards to the

study, algebraic concepts of probability seemed to be the major difficult area. The research

instrument used were pre-test, post-test and unstructured oral interview. During the oral

interview, it came to light that teacher trainees expressed worries over the difficult nature of the

probability concepts. To confirm the researcher’s impressions of their learning difficulties, a pre-

test was conducted to elicit the actual problems on the paper. Through this, the researcher

identified the following as the major causes of the problem of the study among the sixty-eight

(68) teacher trainees as text comprehension, conceptual, procedural and computational errors in

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the pre-test administered. Now to help reduce teacher trainees difficulties, the researcher used

probability wheel to help address teacher trainees problems. They were gradually taken through

the use of probability tree diagram for a period of two (2) weeks where they were given extended

tasks individually to help reduce the problems, on 16th November, 2012, the teacher trainees

were given the test under similar conditions as the post-test. From there, their scores actually

demonstrated positive change over the pre-test scores as illustrated in the tables and figures in

the chapter four (4).

5.2 Conclusion

The main purpose of the research is to use the Guided Discovery Approach to enhance teacher

trainees understanding of probability concepts. This action research report indicates how certain

factors were used to enhance teacher trainees understanding on condition probability. These

factors include the use of tree diagram and show how it must be used in teaching some

probability topics at colleges of Education in Ghana. According to Shaughnessy and Bergman

(1993), the teaching of probability and statistics must include the misuse of statistics design to

show the students the faults in their intuition. A strategy that seems to help this matter is the use

of tree diagram by allowing students to use the materials such as coins, dice, tree diagram and

probability wheel to reduce the abstract nature of probability problem solving. There is not one

correct “algorithmic” way to teach probability concepts and that is the basic reason why the

study focuses on the use of multiple instructional EVRs to make varied concepts under

probability very easy for students. The use of straight lecture series approach (traditional mode)

of teaching probability is not beneficial to students, therefore tree diagram must be used. This is

because the incorporation of multiple instructional strategies through the use of tree diagram

judiciously in the instructional process positively affected the ability of the students probability

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problem solving. The advantages that the tree diagram and the probability wheel provide aided

the researcher trainees to represent outcomes from a multi-step experiment. For example, teacher

trainees were allowed to flip or toss a coin and record heads (H) and tails (T) on the tree diagram.

Sum up to numerical value one (1) as a check point. This actually gave teachers trainees a lasting

clue to draw correct probability tree diagram to enhance their text comprehension, conceptual,

procedural steps and computational understanding. The tree diagram aided teacher trainees as an

advantage in grounding the concepts of making a draw with or without replacements of a

probability event. Therefore, the results of the studies show clearly that, incorporating problem

solving and multiple representations in probability instructional lesson will influence students

ability to solve probability problems.

5.3 RECOMMENDATION

With respect to the findings made in the research, mathematics teachers should embrace the

following suggestions in the teaching and learning process.

 Teachers could use the researcher’s methodologies to promote understanding of the

concept(s) by the students on probability.

 To enhance teacher trainees competency to teach probability concepts. Trainers need to

identify common learning problems which they often encounter when teaching

probability concepts.

 On how to teach probability, text comprehension, procedural steps, computational steps

and conceptual understanding must be checked when teaching probability lesson.

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 Teachers should make use of examples from real life situations during lessons and

diagrams to aid logical deductions and useful conclusions.

 Curriculum planners and developers should structure the contents of the level 100 and the

Level 200 mathematics syllabi at Colleges of Education such that probability concepts

would be taught in first and second year respectively for better understanding.

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