7/13/22, 1:26 PM India Monsoon: Poor monsoon could spell disaster for India's agriculture-based economy, say experts

omy, say experts - The Economic Times

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Business News › News › Economy › Agriculture › Poor monsoon could spell disaster for India's agriculture-based economy, say experts

Poor monsoon could spell disaster for India's

agriculture-based economy, say experts
PTI Last Updated: Jun 19, 2022, 01:03 PM IST
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Synopsis
The monsoon accounts for around 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall and
irrigates 60 per cent of its net sown area. Nearly half of the population depends on
agriculture directly or indirectly. A bad monsoon invariably means bad crop production
and inflation.

Already reeling under the after-effects

of tormenting heatwaves, India cannot
afford to have a poor monsoon which I work 4 hours a day and earn Rs.26 000
per hour without struggling
could spell disaster for its agriculture-
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based economy, experts have said,
hoping a revival of monsoon rains will
ease food inflation and ensure food Most Popular Stories
security.

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The monsoon has been sluggish in the first part
at GIFT
of June, with the rainfall deficit piling up to 80 per
cent in some parts of the country.

The monsoon accounts for around 70

per cent of the country's annual rainfall and irrigates 60 per cent of its net
sown area. Nearly half of the population depends on agriculture directly or 2. Waiting time for employer-
sponsored green cards rises
indirectly.

A bad monsoon invariably means bad crop production and inflation.

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An early onslaught of heatwaves has already impacted rabi crops, prompting

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/poor-monsoon-could-spell-disaster-for-indias-agriculture-based-economy-say-ex… 1/6
7/13/22, 1:26 PM India Monsoon: Poor monsoon could spell disaster for India's agriculture-based economy, say experts - The Economic Times

the government to curb wheat exports and cut output predictions by roughly
5 per cent — from 111.3 million tonnes to 106.4 million tonnes.

Another disruption in the weather pattern can have serious consequences in

terms of the country's food security.

While the MeT office has predicted a normal monsoon for the fourth year on Vote now to win ₹10L* travel
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the trot, its slow progress in the first half of June sparked fears about a delay in
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the sowing of crops such as paddy.

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However, the weather department says it is expected to pick up pace and
compensate for any deficiency.

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The prediction is good and the rainfall is picking up. The countrywide rainfall PM Kisan

deficit has decreased from 43 per cent on June 11 to 18 per cent on June 17, said
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General (D-G), India Meteorological Popular in Economy
Department (IMD).

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“Normal rainfall activity will continue in peninsular India, east and central
parts of the country and the Northeast,” he said, adding that the precipitation
in northwest India will increase after June 23.

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cross-border trade in rupee,

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Russia
Mohapatra said monsoon never leads to an even rainfall distribution across
all regions.

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“If we look at spatial distribution, some areas will get less rainfall; some will
get more. The quantum will be normal and that is what we have predicted,”
the IMD D-G said.

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He said La Nina conditions, considered good for the monsoon, will continue
till the end of the season, but will be countered by the projected negative
5. Supplementary demand for
grants unlikely in the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), known for obstructing the progression of the
upcoming monsoon session
monsoon over India.

“The net result will be a normal monsoon,” the meteorologist added.

G P Sharma, president (meteorology), Skymet Weather, said it looked like the

monsoon had hit a roadblock as it entered the third week.

The country received deficient rainfall as far as the agriculture sector is Guaranteed discounts for all
concerned, he said, attributing the sluggish start to the absence of a "driving voters*!
system like offshore trough, cyclonic circulation, among others".

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But that is going to change soon. A cyclonic circulation will come up over parts
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of West Bengal, north Odisha and adjoining Bangladesh in three to four days
which will change the wind pattern in the Indo-Gangetic plains, the 1. Public spending to make private less ltd

meteorologist said on Friday.

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7/13/22, 1:26 PM India Monsoon: Poor monsoon could spell disaster for India's agriculture-based economy, say experts - The Economic Times

"This cyclonic circulation will initiate the typical easterly flow which is crucial
3. Why India should become hydro hub
for the advance of the monsoon into northwest India," he said.

By Amitabh Kant

Central parts of the country, including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Top Category Deals
adjoining Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, are the core monsoon rain-
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fed area and therefore, are the most vulnerable.

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central India eagerly waits for monsoon rains,” he said.

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A delay in the monsoon poses a greater risk to Maharashtra, as it is a large
state stretching from the Konkan coast to Vidarbha and has diverse weather
conditions.

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“But the situation is becoming better. The disappointing phase has ended at
least for the month of June. The rain-fed areas are expected to do well,”
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Sharma said.

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points

Principal Scientist and Professor, Indian Agricultural Research Institute

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(IARI), Vinod Sehgal said rainfall deficit will be compensated by the end of
June.

“The outlook is good and it appears to be reviving. We should get good rains in
July. The situation is not so concerning. A large rainfall deficit that extends
into the first week of July is considered disastrous for the Kharif crop,” he said.

A good rainfall is all the more necessary because the prolonged heatwaves
have sucked the moisture from the soil, the scientist said.

Sehgal attributed the food inflation to heatwaves and volatile global markets.

Globally, the demand for wheat grew due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The two
nations together export a quarter of the world's wheat.

The increase in crude oil prices and the weakening of Rupee also leads to
diversion of a substantial amount of foodgrain for the production of bio-
ethanol which in turn leads to food inflation, the IARI professor explained.

Food and trade policy expert Devinder Sharma said deadly heat waves have
already hit the wheat yields this year and the country needs a normal
monsoon for adequate rice production.

Punjab has 98 per cent of its crop area under assured irrigation. But not all
regions of the country have this advantage, he said.

The monsoon has been sluggish in the first part of June, with the rainfall
deficit piling up to 80 per cent in some parts of the country. It will certainly

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