July 4, 2022

ISLAMABAD INSIGHT

Two Critical Redlines

That Could Shatter
Pakistan
Shaheen Sehbai

WASHINGTON: An old friend, a very senior

bureaucrat and diplomat who later served as
an United Nations Advisor, agreed with me
this week that Pakistan had come perilously
close to becoming another Libya, Syria or Iraq
where regime-changes had been forced in the
last few years.
But we agreed that only two thresholds
remain to be crossed and if tragically that
happens, Pakistan will sink fast into a
bottomless pit.
As critical institutions, like the Parliament,
Judiciary, Executive, Big Business and the
Media, that normally keep a country stable,
and moving forward have collapsed in
Pakistan one by one, these redlines have
become visible and are about to be crossed.
The most important redline is that the people
of Pakistan, although under tremendous
economic pain, stress and distress, have not
yet turned violent en masse and still nurture
the hope that someone, somehow will
manage the myriad of their heart wrenching
problems and bring some stability, sanity and
comfort.
But when we heard last week that after the
Sri Lanka turmoil even the forlorn people of
Libya, a country which I know well, had
turned to the streets and set their parliament
on fire, I was scared. Libyans were the most
docile and subservient people under Colonel
Gaddafi. I have seen that in the late 70s they
would stand in a line for hours to buy a bag
of onions or a cleaning broom from the
cooperative market, but would never
complain.
Yet last week they set up a parallel
government in the eastern part of the country
and named their own prime minister while the
capital Tripoli in the west was being ruled by
another PM.
According to a CNN report several cities,
including Tripoli, witnessed demonstrations
over deteriorating living conditions and
called for the dissolution of political bodies.
“All [political] bodies must leave, including
the government, and there is no way to do
that except through elections,” the Eastern
Libyan PM said referring to the Tripoli
government.
Hundreds of people stormed Libya’s eastern
parliament building in the port city of Tobruk
on July 2, the latest in a string of clashes
between groups supporting rivaling leaders.
In Pakistan sporadic and small demos have
been taking place over similar issues and
people do take the law into their hands but
the huge rallies and demonstrations have
remained non-violent.
One factor has been the role and restraint
shown by popular leader Imran Khan. But
for how long, no one knows as the patience
of the people is running out and it is just a
matter of time when this ticking time bomb
shatters the redline.
Once Pakistanis come out of this fear, there
would be no stopping them and what may
follow would certainly be a catastrophe.
The second redline is much more serious
and absolutely crucial to the security and
existence of Pakistan.
It is the strict discipline and still-intact
chain of command within the Pakistan
Army. No Italian style Colonel’s coup has
been plotted against the top army leadership.
Some anger and disgust - though sporadic -
has been seen criss-crossing the rank and file
that included even retired generals who were
mainly under the assumption that the army
was supporting a political charade at the
federal and provincial levels. While the fact
remains that these ex-generals were publicly
criticizing the military leaders for their acts
of omission and commission.
The Italian coup, called The Golpe Borghese
coup, was planned in December, 1970. It was
named after Junio Valerio Borghese, an
Italian World War II commander, the "Black
Prince", a convict of war crimes, but still a
hero in the eyes of many post-War Italians.
 His secret coup was ironically code named
'Operation Tora Tora’, a name rhyming with
Tora Bora in our neighborhood. The plan of
the plotters in its final phase envisaged the
involvement of US and NATO warships
which were on alert in the Mediterranean.
Italy, however, survived the trauma.
But this redline must not be crossed in
Pakistan because that would signal the end
of the army as a cohesive and efficient
fighting force which protects the country
and its essential nuclear assets that keep
enemies at an arm’s length.
So what should be done to ensure that
both these critical thresholds are never
crossed and the country can stabilize itself
and move forward?
The army tradition has been remarkable as
repeatedly its chief was picked not on pure
military merit but mainly because some
supposed weaknesses were liked by those
making the appointments or other political
exigencies. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto picked
General Ziaul Haq as he was docile. When
his plane crashed Mirza Aslam Beg took
over but despite ambitions could not impose
Martial Law. Decent officers, General Kakar
and Jehangir Karamat, retired honorably and
Asif Nawaz died under mysterious
circumstances, but General Musharraf was
picked because Nawaz Sharif thought he had
no roots in Punjab. Many superseded
generals who were top rated on merit just
retired quietly. When Musharraf became
unpopular, though he tried his best to stay in
uniform and even contest elections as an
army officer, he appointed General Kayani
who would later protect him. So was General
Bajwa chosen, not on merit but other
considerations. Yet all these top changes did
not produce a situation that broke the
discipline of the institution.
Now we are back at the same crossroads.
General Bajwa has officially declared he
wants to retire but reports keep circulating
that he may be given, or could be seeking
another extension. Reports of officially
extending the tenure of the chief to four years
have also started surfacing. The army, and
the country, is back to the point when
General Musharraf was not ready to quit.
Then the collective wisdom of the
institution prevailed and some colleagues
quietly persuaded him to quit the army and
doff his uniform in the wake of the rising
political opposition. He agreed.
Probably many are hoping and expecting
that colleagues of General Bajwa will also
follow the tradition and keep the army from
breaking its worthy record of unity and
bring the required changes, without any
uproar or destabilization. This has to be a
test of the quality of leadership and its
vision. No one can predict what may happen
but now the country is in another zone of
history. It is 2022, with millions of people,
in villages and cities, connected through the
telecom and cell phone revolutions.
Ex-army officers inside and outside the
country are talking openly and some
viciously, hoping that sanity will prevail.
Masses are on the streets, but so far
peaceful.
On the political front Imran Khan is still a
stabilizing force with millions of followers.
The collusion of the present army brass
with politicians who were facing numerous
corruption cases has hurt the army image. Yet
there still is hope that the political process
will be allowed transparently to get over this
phase of uncertainty.
 If all efforts to achieve a balance through
non-violent political activity fail and the push
comes to shove, Pakistan could get into
serious trouble.
The irony is that more chaos may be
created to prevent exactly such chaos.
And if in this process the military or
political leaders lose nerve, everything may
spin out of control. Then we may, God
forbid, follow Libya, Syria, Iraq or Tora
Bora.