FX DAILY REPORT

MONDAY JUNE 20TH 2011

Bell FX Currency Outlook

The Australian Dollar has opened this morning at USD1.0600 after the dramas surrounding the Greek sovereign debt crisis eased over the weekend.
Australia: Discussions between France and Germany saw them come to an agreement to work with the ECB for a compromise deal to ensure that Greece does not default on its debt. This was a significant change from the view that Germanys Angela Merkel expressed earlier where existing bondholders should carry a substantial burden of any rescue. There seems now to be universal opinion in the EU that a combination of the rollover of existing debt, new funding, privatisation and tough austerity measures will be the result. With the immediate pressure off, the AUD kicked back from the 1.0500 levels and equity markets in Europe and the US all improved. With the major indices all rising, the immediate future path of the AUD and equity markets will be probably driven by the Greek debit situation. With the IMF lowering again their predictions of US growth for 2011 to 2.5% from 2.8%, commodity currencies like the AUD will feel some of the effects of lower predicted growth. This week the AUD is likely to be driven by the Greek situation although the release tomorrow of the RBAs minutes from their recent meeting will be looked at closely for further clues of the timing of any interest rate rises in the future.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Todays Forecast Range

USD 1.0575-1.0675
Currencies AUD / USD USD / JPY EUR / USD GBP / USD NZD / USD Last 1.0610 80.09 1.4278 1.6170 0.8137 Last 84.95 0.7426 0.6568 1.3071 1.0407 Last 4.75 4.99 5.205 Last 0.25 0.247 2.945 Last 1539.45 93.01 336.89 Last 4485 12004 5715 21695 9351 0.247 2.927 - / + (%) +0.6 -2.0 -0.61 - / + (%) +0.1 +0.4 +0.3 -1.2 -0.6 4.98 5.23 Previous High 1.0635 80.67 1.4340 1.6199 0.8137 High 85.39 0.7445 0.6568 1.3143 1.0423 Previous Low 1.0506 80.01 1.4128 1.6093 0.8014 Low 84.56 0.7408 0.6524 1.3049 1.0345

Majors: Apart from the ongoing Greek dramas; data out of the US was mixed, with the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for June falling from 74.3 to 71.8. Another index of leading indicators rose more than expected. With oil continuing to decline to US$93 a barrel for WTI crude this may translate into more optimism for the US consumer which would affect short term growth prospects in the US. The EUR/USD starts the week in the high 1.4200s will move as the Greek debt situation changes since there still is a lot of work to do before the overall issue is resolved. We expect to see continued volatility in the major currencies in the near future.

AUD Crosses AUD / JPY AUD / EUR AUD / GBP AUD / NZD AUD / CAD Australian Rates Official Cash 3 Month Bill 10 Year Bond

Economic Calendar 20 JUNE

US Rates NZ Manufacturing Activity Q1 EU Euro-zone Current Account APR JN Merchandise Trade Import / Exports MAY Fed Funds 3 Month Libor 10 Year Bond Commodities

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