Survey of Likely Republican Primary Election Voters

Arizona Statewide
Conducted July 12 – 13, 2022
n=419 | ±4.78%
 Likelihood to Vote
1. How likely are you to vote in the August 2 Republican primary election for U.S. Senate,
Governor, and state offices out of the following options?

Freq. %
Definitely voting 388 92.5%
Probably voting 27 6.4%
Probably not voting 5 1.1%
Total 419 100.0%

Top Priority
2. Which one of the following issues do you believe should be the top priority for the U.S.
Congress?

Freq. %
Cracking down on illegal immigration and securing the border 138 33.0%
Addressing inflation and the rising costs for groceries and gas 102 24.4%
Preventing election fraud 54 12.8%
Rebuilding the economy and creating good jobs 30 7.1%
Addressing rising crime and supporting law enforcement 23 5.6%
Protecting 2nd Amendment gun rights 23 5.4%
Protecting the life of the unborn 22 5.3%
Ending the teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools 14 3.3%
Unsure 13 3.1%
Total 419 100.0%

Thinking about the upcoming Republican primary elections on August 2nd…

Senate Ballot
3. If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate was held today, and you had to make a
choice, who would you vote for?

Freq. %
Mark Brnovich 75 17.9%
Jim Lamon 82 19.6%
Blake Masters 125 29.9%
Michael McGuire 22 5.3%
Justin Olson 8 1.9%
Undecided 106 25.3%
Total 419 100.0%

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 Governor Ballot
4. If the Republican primary election for Governor was held today, and you had to make a
choice, who would you vote for?

Freq. %
Kari Lake 190 45.4%
Matt Salmon 12 2.9%
Karrin Taylor Robson 141 33.7%
Scott Neely 9 2.0%
Paola Tulliani-Zen 8 1.8%
Undecided 60 14.2%
Total 419 100.0%

5. Are you female or male?

Freq. %
Female 211 50.3%
Male 208 49.7%
Total 419 100.0%

6. What age range do you fall within?

Freq. %
Under 55 111 26.4%
18 - 39 39 9.2%
40 - 54 72 17.2%

55 and Over 308 73.6%

55 - 69 140 33.5%
70 or older 168 40.1%
Total 419 100.0%

7. How are you registered to vote in Arizona? You may consider yourself of a different party,
but what does your voter registration card show? 

Freq. %
Republican 376 89.7%
Democrat 8 1.9%
Independent/Other 27 6.6%
Unsure 8 1.8%
Total 419 100.0%

8. If you had to choose, do you consider yourself more of a Trump Republican or more of a
traditional conservative Republican?

Freq. %
Trump Republican 222 59.1%
Much more a Trump Republican 141 37.4%

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 Somewhat more a Trump Republican 81 21.6%

Traditional conservative Republican 143 38.0%

Somewhat more a traditional conservative Republican 60 15.9%
Much more a traditional conservative Republican 83 22.1%

Unsure 11 2.9%
Total 376 100.0%

9. And thinking about your views toward politics and government, would you say you are…

Freq. %
Conservative 357 85.1%
Extremely conservative 76 18.2%
Very conservative 184 43.9%
Somewhat conservative 96 23.0%

Moderate 50 11.9%

Liberal 6 1.5%

Unsure 6 1.5%
Total 419 100.0%

10. What’s the highest level of education you have completed?

Freq. %
No degree 208 49.7%
Some high school 11 2.5%
High school diploma/GED 25 6.0%
Technical Certification 26 6.1%
Some college or Associate's Degree 147 35.0%

At least College 211 50.3%

Four-year undergraduate or Bachelor's Degree 116 27.8%
Graduate degree or further 94 22.5%

Unsure 0 0.0%
Total 419 100.0%

11. Primary Election X of 4

Freq. %
0 23 5.5%
1 92 21.8%
2 73 17.3%
3 94 22.5%
4 138 32.8%
Total 419 100.0%

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12. Geo – County

Freq. %
Maricopa 281 67.0%

Pima 59 14.0%

Rural Counties 80 19.0%

La paz 1 0.1%
Apache 2 0.4%
Cochise 7 1.6%
Coconino 3 0.6%
Gila 3 0.7%
Graham 2 0.6%
Mohave 16 3.7%
Navajo 8 1.9%
Pinal 19 4.4%
Yavapai 19 4.5%
Yuma 2 0.4%
Total 419 100.0%

13. Geo – DMA

Freq. %
Phoenix 352 84.1%
Tucson/Nogales 65 15.5%
Yuma/El Centro 2 0.4%
Total 419 100.0%

14. Geo – Old Congressional District

Freq. %
1 38 9.2%
2 40 9.5%
3 24 5.7%
4 48 11.5%
5 72 17.1%
6 68 16.2%
7 13 3.2%
8 75 17.9%
9 41 9.7%
Total 419 100.0%

15. Geo – 2022 Congressional District

Freq. %
01 71 17.0%
02 42 10.0%
03 10 2.4%

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 04 36 8.5%
05 71 16.9%
06 51 12.2%
07 24 5.6%
08 66 15.7%
09 49 11.6%
Total 419 100.0%

16. Gender + Age

Freq. %
F 18 - 39 13 3.1%
F 40 - 54 39 9.4%
F 55 - 69 72 17.3%
F 70+ 86 20.5%
M 18 - 39 25 6.1%
M 40 - 54 33 7.8%
M 55 - 69 68 16.2%
M 70+ 82 19.6%
Total 419 100.0%

17. Income from File

Freq. %
$0-$49k 61 14.6%
$50k-$99k 173 41.4%
$100k+ 168 40.1%
Unknown 16 3.9%
Total 419 100.0%

18. Age + Income

Freq. %
<70 <$50k 28 6.8%
<70 $50k-$99k 98 23.3%
<70 $100k+ 112 26.8%
70+ <$50k 33 7.8%
70+ $50k-$99k 76 18.1%
70+ $100k+ 56 13.4%
Unknown 16 3.9%
Total 419 100.0%

19. Race from File

Freq. %
White 350 83.5%
Hispanic 17 4.1%
Asian 3 0.8%
Other 8 1.9%

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 Unknown 41 9.7%
Total 419 100.0%

20. Race + Gender

Freq. %
White Female 178 42.5%
White Male 172 41.1%
Hispanic Female 9 2.1%
Hispanic Male 8 2.0%
Asian Female 2 0.5%
Asian Male 1 0.3%
Other Female 4 1.0%
Other Male 4 0.9%
Unknown 41 9.7%
Total 419 100.0%

21. Gender + Education

Freq. %
Female At least College 101 24.2%
Female No degree 109 26.1%
Male At least College 109 26.1%
Male No degree 99 23.6%
Total 419 100.0%

METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted July 12 – 13, 2022, with 419 likely Republican primary election
voters. It has a margin of error of ±4.78%. Known registered voters were interviewed via IVR and SMS.
This survey was weighted to a likely Republican primary election voter universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM

Cygnal is an award-winning international polling, public opinion, and predictive analytics firm that pioneered
multi-mode polling, text-to-web collection, and emotive analysis. Cygnal consistently ranks as the most
accurate firm, and clients rely on Cygnal’s ability to create intelligence for action. Its team members have
worked in 48 states and multiple countries on more than 2,700 corporate, public affairs, and political
campaigns.

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