Covid-19 Case Study

Using MS-Excel
(Report)

Submitted by: Rasika Deshpande (020)

PGDM-RBA, Welingkar, Bangalore
1)Which states registered highest cases and deaths? Are there
outliers?
Maharashtra registered highest cases and deaths.
 Max Confiremed Cases

Uttarakhand
Tripura
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan
Puducherry
Nagaland
Meghalaya
Maharashtra
Lakshadweep
Kerala
Jharkhand
Himachal Pradesh
Gujarat
Delhi
Chhattisgarh
Bihar
Arunachal Pradesh
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000

MAXIMUM CONFIRMED CASES

From the given bar graph, we can infer that Maharashtra registered
highest number of cases and highest number of deaths.
Some of the following reasons of failure of Maharashtra to handle
covid-19 outbreak is given below:
• Incoming international travellers:

Mumbai being financial capital of the India and Pune being one of
the largest IT service exporters in India, more and more
international travellers travel through these two cities in
Maharashtra. Also, many people from Maharashtra who worked
or studied abroad returned home a month ago and after the
Corona news.

So, it seems that, many infected people travelled from abroad to

India and landed at Mumbai International Airport from there corona
started to spread its net in Maharashtra.

• City with highest population density in the world: Mumbai

Population density: 76,790 per square mile

 Population: 14,350,000

Square miles: 187 miles

In Mumbai, Maharashtra, tens of thousands of people find

themselves packed into each square mile of the most crowded
urban area on Earth.

It is impossible to have social distancing at some crowded places

like local trains, slums, airports, railway stations etc.

Dharavi is world's most populated slum with a population of over 1

million people is situated in Mumbai. They stay in large numbers in
small rooms. There is absolutely no practical way to implement
social distancing. They have no money to keep themselves
sanitized and they can't quarantine themselves. Hence, the
chances of getting infected and spread of virus is very high.

So, this might be the reason behind covid out-break in Mumbai and
in Maharashtra.

Max of Death

Uttarakhand
Tripura
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan
Puducherry
Nagaland
Meghalaya
Maharashtra
Lakshadweep
Kerala
Jharkhand
Himachal Pradesh
Gujarat
Delhi
Chhattisgarh
Bihar
Arunachal Pradesh
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

MAXIMUM NUMBER OF DEATHS

• Lack of social responsibility:

 As people were not serios about following guidelines given by
government like following social distancing, wearing masks at
public places, sanitization etc.

So, it seems that, lack of social responsibility in society plays

vital role in covid outbreak in Maharashtra.

• Poor Governance:

Following are some examples of poor governance in

Maharashtra:

1. Delay in implementation of containment zones. (Red,

Orange, Yellow).

2. Allowing the air travellers to pass through the Mumbai

international airport without proper check.
3. Failed to undertake large scale testing of people

So, this might be the reason of maximum covid cases and deaths in
Maharashtra.

Outliers for maximum covid cases are: Tamil Nādu (2716421), Karnataka
(2992276), Kerala (5071135) and Maharashtra (6625872)

Outliers for maximum deaths are: Karnataka (38153), Kerala

(36087) and Maharashtra (140636)
States Max of confirmed Max of Death
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 7674 129
Andhra Pradesh 2070286 14418
Arunachal Pradesh 55230 280
Assam 614413 6056
Bihar 726161 9662
Chandigarh 65390 820
Chhattisgarh 1006406 13588
Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu 10682 4
Delhi 1440484 25095
Goa 178533 3376
Gujarat 827014 10090
Haryana 771463 10051
Himachal Pradesh 226022 3822
Jammu and Kashmir 334432 4455
Jharkhand 349041 5139
Karnataka 2992276 38153
Kerala 5071135 36087
Ladakh 21229 211
Lakshadweep 10365 51
Madhya Pradesh 792981 10525
Maharashtra 6625872 140636
Manipur 124588 1953
Meghalaya 84080 1465
Mizoram 129845 467
Nagaland 32018 695
Odisha 1045862 8381
Puducherry 128495 1866
Punjab 602833 16573
Rajasthan 954539 8954
Sikkim 32108 401
Tamil Nadu 2716421 36311
Telangana 673889 3976
Tripura 84691 817
Uttar Pradesh 1710288 22909
Uttarakhand 344058 7404
West Bengal 1605794 19333

2) Which states are best in recovery rates? Are there outliers

After looking into given data, Andaman and Niko bar Island is having
highest recovery rate of 88.13%. But as, this island falls under union
territories of India we can interpret from given statistic chart that
Tripura has the best recovery rate (83.50) in India.
Following might be the reasons for the best recovery rate in Tripura:
1) Geographic location: Tripura is a state in northeastern India. It is
third smallest state in the country and is bordered by Bangladesh,
assam and Mizoram.
As the state is geographically isolated it might be the one of the
reasons for comparatively less covid cases resulted in highest
recovery rate.
Recovery rate = cured cases/ confirmed cases

2) Population: In 2011, the state had only 367032 residents, consisting

0.3% of the country’s population.
As the population of the state is very low, it seems that, natives of
the Tripura are able to follow government guidelines like social
distancing, sanitization etc.

3) Less Visitors: As we know, Tripura is geographically isolated as

compared to other states. There are less job opportunities available
as well as very less scope for tourism industry. Because of all these
reasons, there are very few outside visitors in the state.

4) Vaccination: It has observed that, government of Tripura followed

vaccination drive quite seriously. As, Mangalkhali gaon Panchayat
under Jubrinagar block of North Tripura District was fully
vaccinated by June’21.
 Average of Recovery rate

Uttar Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Punjab
Nagaland
Manipur
Lakshadweep
Karnataka
Himachal Pradesh
Goa
Chhattisgarh
Assam
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00%100.00%

There is total three outliers in the given data:

1) Lakshadweep: Union Territory of Lakshadweep was the only Covid-free
state/UT in India in 2020 covid outbreak. The first case of Lakshadweep
was registered in Jan 2021. As there were very few cases registered
its recovery rate is also less which is 52.35%
2) Mizoram: 73.14%
3) Andaman and Niko bar Island: 88.13%

Row Labels Average of Recovery rate

Andaman and Nicobar Islands 88.13%
Andhra Pradesh 79.73%
Arunachal Pradesh 80.96%
Assam 82.96%
Bihar 82.84%
Chandigarh 81.19%
Chhattisgarh 81.30%
Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and
Diu 84.77%
Delhi 82.02%
Goa 82.50%
Gujarat 81.00%
Haryana 83.09%
Himachal Pradesh 79.46%
Jammu and Kashmir 77.84%
Jharkhand 80.72%
Karnataka 76.94%
Kerala 78.59%
Ladakh 82.29%
Lakshadweep 52.35%
Madhya Pradesh 81.34%
Maharashtra 75.85%
Manipur 79.35%
Meghalaya 78.27%
Mizoram 73.14%
Nagaland 80.27%
Odisha 81.38%
Puducherry 78.85%
Punjab 78.96%
Rajasthan 81.97%
Sikkim 79.39%
Tamil Nadu 81.48%
Telangana 80.93%
Tripura 83.50%
Uttar Pradesh 80.49%
Uttarakhand 79.42%
West Bengal 79.98%

3) Which states have done better in terms of having lower deaths despite
higher cases as compared to other states?
 State Data
7000000 160000

6000000 140000

120000
5000000
100000
4000000
80000
3000000
60000
2000000
40000
1000000 20000

0 0

Max of Confirmed Cases Max of Death

When we look into above statistical chart, it is very easy to understand that,
Kerala has done great job in keeping death rate lower despite of spike in the
cases.

As we know, Death Rate = Max Deaths / Max confirmed cases

Death Rate of Kerala = 0.45%

1) Better Management: The covid-19 outbreak hit Kerala one month late
as compared to other states that means Kerala got around one month
to learn about the spread and also to design the policies.
Also, the government of Kerala started the lockdown one week before
the national lockdown was announced.
They were better prepared and large social media campaigns which
helped almost every citizen knowing what exactly was coming and how
to deal with it, CM of Kerala came live every day to update people about
the current situation and the measures government is taking and
making sure none of the citizens will go hungry by making adequate
arrangements like community kitchens, free rations to homes etc made
sure people have no reason to leave their homes.

2) Literacy Rate: Literacy rate of Kerala is 95.5% which means, Kerala

has an educated population which made the implementation of
 lockdown very easy. This might be one of the reasons for Kerala’s low
date rate.

3) Population: Population of Kerala is 3.2cr. When we compared this with

other states like Maharashtra, Karnataka etc. the population is
concentrated in more manageable area.

4) Measures taken by Government: Containment measures, rapid antigen

tests etc. helped government to catch infections early. Which
dramatically lowered the death rate in Kerala.

So, because of these reasons, Kerala might manage to control its death rate
as compared to the other states in the country.

4) Is India's average recovery rate significantly greater than world average?

No. As India’s average recovery rate is 79.12 % and world’s average recovery
rate is 79.18%, we cannot say that India’s recovery rate is significantly greater
than worlds average rate

Explanation:

1) In given data set, we had India data set with us.

2) To find world’s average recovery rate we need cured cases as
recovery rate= Cured cases/ Confirmed Cases.
3) We also know that,
Confirmed cases = Active Cases + Cured Cases + Deaths
But in given data, active cases and cured cases both were missing.
To find those,
4) we used multiple-regression model.

SUMMARY OUTPUT
 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999107
R Square 0.998216
Adjusted R Square 0.996584
Standard Error 802127.8
Observations 616

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 2.21E+17 1.11E+17 171749.7 0
Residual 614 3.95E+14 6.43E+11
Total 616 2.21E+17

Standard Upper Lower Uppe

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Cured/Discharged 0.9224 0.032979 27.96948 1.2E-111 0.857635 0.987165 0.857635 0.9871
Death 8.694439 2.403415 3.617536 0.000322 3.974529 13.41435 3.974529 13.414

Here, we took confirmed cases as a dependent variable and cured, discharged

as an independent-variables.

5) Using given regression model, we found the intercept of the cured

that is 0.9224 and for death it is 8.6944.
6) Then, after applying the equation, y = mx1 + kx2 + c, we got following
equations:

Confirm= 0.9224*cured+8.6944*Death
Cured = (confirm-8.6944*death)/0.9224

Using these equations, we got the value for cured. After this, we put
the value of cured in given equation, to get the value of active
cases.
 Confirmed cases = Active Cases + Cured Cases + Deaths.

7) And finally got the recovery rate for world as 79.12%

5) Is there any association between no. of cases and deaths? Can we

predict no. of deaths based on the no. of cases across states? Does
this relationship change over time (i.e., first wave vs second wave)?

Yes. We can predict the number of deaths from the confirmed cases
of data. With the help of equation which we derived using regression
plot between confirmed cases and deaths. Wherein to prove our
derivation to be accurate, we used this equation and put the value of
confirmed cases and got approximately equal data of the death as
that of actual data.

Andhra Pradesh
16000
14000 y = 0.0071x
12000 R² = 0.9944

10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000

1) In above image, we considered data for, Andhra-Pradesh. Here, we got

the equation that is, y=0.0071x
2) To predict the deaths, we multiplied 0.0071 with confirmed cases.
3) And to check the correlation between both the actual death and the
predicted deaths, we use CORREL function.
4) After this, for all the data we got the correlation more than 93% for all the
data given.

Correlation
between
actual death
and
predicted
Row Labels Equation deaths
Andhra Pradesh y= 0.0071x 0.994394
Arunachal
Pradesh y=0.0047x 0.990052916
Assam y= 0.0086x 0.977197367
Bihar y= 0.0113x 0.945143512
Chhattisgarh y= 0.0132x 0.998253425
Delhi y= 0.017x 0.994835741
Goa y= 0.0178x 0.994696634
Gujarat y= 0.0127x 0.989426795
Haryana y= 0.012x 0.991620354
Himachal
Pradesh y= 0.0167x 0.998810051
Jharkhand y= 0.014x 0.988939515
Karnataka y= 0.0124x 0.995443774
Kerala y= 0.0052x 0.979970539
Madhya Pradesh y= 0.0125x 0.983933909
Maharashtra y= 0.0203x 0.982764403
Manipur y= 0.0154x 0.99751533
Meghalaya y= 0.0168x 0.997056471
Mizoram y= 0.0035x 0.997193675
Nagaland y= 0.0179x 0.961529952
Odisha y= 0.0064x 0.947008249
Punjab y= 0.0272x 0.997018745
Rajasthan y= 0.0091x 0.995291639
Sikkim y= 0.0133x 0.979799434
Tamil Nadu y= 0.0133x 0.996118617
Telangana y= 0.0058x 0.997445935
Tripura y=0.0101x 0.993659278
Uttar Pradesh y= 0.013x 0.993478285
Uttarakhand y= 0.0206x 0.99400484
West Bengal y= 0.0126x 0.981855365

For first wave in India, we considered data from 10th July 2020 to 12th
November.
 India
first wave

121
109
97
85
73
61
49
37
25
13
1
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000 10000000

confirmed Death

For the second wave in India, we considered 11th march to 17th July 2021

121
113
105
97
89
81
73
Deaths

65
57
49
41
33
25
17
9
1
0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000
Active cases

For the first wave we get the correlation of 99.99% and for second wave we get
the correlation of 97.63%

Here, we can see that in second wave, correlation of confirmed cases and
deaths are less than first wave. From this we can predict that, there might be
variation in the give data of second wave as compared to first wave. Like
increase in deaths as well as increased in the active cases.

6) Records for a few dates are missing. Predict them for India-level data.

Missing data are values that are not recorded in a dataset. They can be a
single value missing in a single cell or missing of an entire observation
(row). Missing data can occur both in a continuous variable or a
categorical variable.

To find the missing dates in the given data, we followed following

procedure:
1) First take the difference of consecutive dates.
2) If the difference in between consecutive dates is ‘1’ then we assume
that there are no missing dates.
3) If, there is a difference of ‘2’ or more between given dates, then we
can assume that that there are ‘1’ or more missing dates in
between.
For example, if given date is 1nd and 3rd, then the difference will be
‘2’ i.e., the missing date is ‘2’.

To find the missing data in the giving data, we followed following

average method:

1) For example, there is a available data for 1st and 3rd and the data for 2nd
is missing.
So here take the average of 1st and 3rd to get the data for 2nd. Here we
used this method as we observed that the provided data is progressive
in nature.
2) Confirmed cases on 2nd = (confirmed cases on 1st + confirmed cases on
3rd) /2
3) In the same way we can calculate the data for cured cases and deaths.
4) To calculate the active cases, we use the given formula:
Active cases = Confirmed cases – Cured cases – Deaths

Confirmed Active
Date Region Cases Cases Cured/Discharged Death
15-12-2020 India 9906165 339820 9422636 143709
16-12-2020 India 9931361 331093 9456188 144080
17-12-2020 India 9956557 322366 9489740 144451
01-01-2021 India 10295320 252438 9893795 149087
02-01-2021 India 10309642 249829 9910553 149261
03-01-2021 India 10323965 247220 9927310 149435
04-01-2021 India 10340469 243953 9946867 149649
25-01-2021 India 10667736 184182 10330084 153470
26-01-2021 India 10678632 180340 10344695 153597
27-01-2021 India 10689527 176498 10359305 153724
27-02-2021 India 11079979 159590 10763451 156938
28-02-2021 India 11096110 164109 10774954 157047.5
01-03-2021 India 11112241 168627 10786457 157157
04-03-2021 India 11156923 173413 10826075 157435
05-03-2021 India 11174506 176859 10840102 157546
06-03-2021 India 11192088 180304 10854128 157656
11-03-2021 India 11285561 189226 10938146 158189
12-03-2021 India 11309645 195624 10955703 158318
13-03-2021 India 11333728 202022 10973260 158446
25-03-2021 India 11787534 395192 11231650 160692
26-03-2021 India 11848222 423920 11263336.5 160966
27-03-2021 India 11908910 452647 11295023 161240
19-07-2021 India 31144229 421665 30308456 414108
20-07-2021 India 31180283 414418 30349571.5 416294
21-07-2021 India 31216337 407170 30390687 418480
22-07-2021 India 31257720 409394 30429339 418987
23-07-2021 India 31334491 410292 30504223 419977
24-07-2021 India 31372877 410740 30541664 420472
25-07-2021 India 31392069 410965 30560385 420720
26-07-2021 India 31411262 411189 30579106 420967
16-09-2021 India 33172237 342223 32389375 440639
17-09-2021 India 33294814 341431 32510799 442584
18-09-2021 India 33417390 340639 32632222 444529
02-11-2021 India 34296237 153776 33683581 458880
03-11-2021 India 34308631 151178 33698187.5 459266
04-11-2021 India 34321025 148579 33712794 459652
12-11-2021 India 34414186 137416 33814080 462690
13-11-2021 India 34425747 136667 33825970 463110
14-11-2021 India 34437307 135918 33837859 463530
 7) Forecast the number of cases, deaths and cures for India for next week.
As we have the all the data for India level, we can forecast the values
for next week using moving average method.
So here, using moving average method, we predicted the data for
confirmed cases, cured cases, the active cases and deaths.

Confirmed Active Cured/ SS SS SS SS Move M

Date Region Cases Cases Discharged Death CC AC Cure death AC C
18-11-2021 India 34477744 126965 33886296 464482 11146 -1590 12406 329 11146
19-11-2021 India 34488611 125309 33898492 464810 10868 -1656 12196 328 10868
20-11-2021 India 34499243 123580 33910551 465113 10632 -1730 12059 303 10632
21-11-2021 India 34509743 121710 33922634 465399 10500 -1870 12083 286 10500
22-11-2021 India 34520091 119681 33934745 465666 10348 -2030 12111 267 10348
23-11-2021 India 34530456 117621 33946882 465953 10365 -2059 12137 287 10365
24-11-2021 India 34541035 115740 33959043 466253 10579 -1882 12161 300 10579