Long Term Aging of Electronics Systems & Maintainability Strategy

for Critical Applications

James Loman • GE Global Research Center • Niskayuna

Anthony Arrao • GE Power Systems • Schenectady
Roger Wyrick • GE Power Systems • Atlanta
Key words: Electronics Maintenance, Electronics Aging, Electronics Degradation, Electronics Life

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS 1. INTRODUCTION

Many electronic systems, such as computers and
consumer goods, have a short life, typically two to five
years. However, there are critical applications, e.g. in the
case of power plants, where life may be 20 years or more.
While proactive maintenance is normally practiced for
mechanical components, we have not found references in
the technical literature that address the question as to
whether or not proactive maintenance for electronic
systems may be warranted in cases of very long term
usage.
Electronics reliability models that are commonly used
include MIL-HDBK 217F (Ref. 1) and Telcordia
Reliability model (Ref. 2). In the former model failures
are assumed to be “random,” i.e. exponentially
distributed. A model such as this has no “infant mortality”
or “wearout” region. The latter, Telcordia, model does
add a “First year multiplier” to account for infant
mortality but no factors for well-aged components.
Physics of failure approaches (see e.g. Ref. 3) come
closest to describing the “life” of electronic products.
They are useful in cases where life is limited by
predictable physical mechanisms. These models work
well, e.g., for the case of solder joint fatigue by thermal
cycling. However, POF approaches are not adequate for
large systems, with disparate part types, where the
environmental conditions are benign. In our applications,
units are operated in a control room with carefully
controlled environmental conditions.
The “Reliability Bathtub” curve, shown in Fig.1,
illustrates clearly the basic problem with proactive
maintenance for electronic systems. Industry standard
references state that electronics fail randomly, i.e. in the
middle portion of the curve (Ref 1), or that a “First Year”
multiplier (Ref. 2) enhances these random failures.
Removing otherwise functional electronic circuit cards,
and replacing them with new cards would result in cards
with a higher chance of failure, since this will put the
system back to the far left of the bathtub curve. This will
result in increasing failure rate, and added expense, which
is clearly not a desirable result from a maintenance action.
Proactive card replacement makes sense only if the
existing cards are in the far right portion of the curve, i.e.
they are wearing out and their failure rate is increasing in
time. We have fielded systems, which are now 30 years
old. While the reliability performance of these cards has
been excellent, the likelihood of this continuing into the
future is unknown.

So, we conducted a large measurement program on

samples of aged control circuit cards to determine what
components age, and by how much, over 20 years or
more. We used the results, in concert with additional
analysis, to determine a maintenance strategy for older
control systems.
Fig. 1: Reliability Bathtub Curve. Electronics failures
are usually classified as either “Infant Mortality” or
Random,” i.e. occurring within the “Useful Life”
We studied the issue of “Wearout,” the far right side of
the curve.

0-7803-7717-6/03/$17.00 © 2003 IEEE

328 2003 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Symposium
 Therefore, the key questions that need to be asked and
answered are:
• When will these components wear out?
• How will we know when that time is coming?
• Is it wise to arbitrarily extend the life of systems
indefinitely, without this knowledge?
In other words, do electronics wear out- and at what
point?
2. PROCEDURE
We obtained electronic circuit cards that were used by a
major utility. The use environment would best be
described as “Ground Benign,” i.e. the cards were used in
racks in a controlled environment. Sixteen boards were
examined. They are only a sample, since our older control
systems may contains 200 board types. The boards were
25-33 years old, except one that was only 11 years old.
Boards were visually examined and defects noted. Boards
were then deconstructed, that is, components were
removed and electrically measured. The parts used on the
cards were “high quality” parts for their time of
manufacture, i.e. late 1960’s and early 1970’s, meaning
that many components were hermetic can or DIP
construction. The part types included both “military” and
“commercial” quality. We wanted to see if significant
electrical degradation in components is occurring, and if
aging appears to lead to system anomalies. We collected
data on 770 components from the 16-card sample.
Interconnects used through-hole technology. The density
of components was very low compared to current
assembly technology. Fig. 2 shows an example card.
Fig. 2: An example of circuit card used in the aging
study. This particular card was produced in 1969 and
operated for more than 30 years.
On each component, there was a minimum of three
measurements; on some components there were more
than 100 measurements. The actual measurements varied
depending on the type of component. In simple cases, the
measurement might be as simple as the resistance of a
carbon composition resistor at room, high and low
temperature. In the more sophisticated cases, such as
integrated circuits, the measurements would include open
2003 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Symposium
loop gain, offset voltage, offset current, bias current and
common mode rejection ratio. Simple components were
measured on analog equipment such as curve tracers.
Some of the more sophisticated components were
measured on ATE (Automated Test Equipment).
We also examined the mechanical interconnections, such
as the connectors, connector pins, and solder joints. We
noted no anomalies. Our study differs from a Physics of
Failure aging study (e.g. Ref. 3). In POF, the time to
failure, e.g. a mechanical interconnection such as solder,
is estimated based upon a stress stimulus such as a
thermal cycle. In our study the physical stimulus is small,
so indefinite life would be anticipated.
3. RESULTS
Despite the advanced age, we found that most
components (94%) were in specification at room
temperature. At maximum rated temperatures, about three
times more parts were out-of-specification, but we will
not discuss this in detail.
For the 6% that were out of specification, at room
temperature, we found three s-significant categories that
showed systematic aging, and could eventually lead to
circuit card/ system malfunction, depending on the nature
of the design.
3.1Capacitors
Tantalum and metalized paper construction capacitors is
the first category which showed aging effects. We found
that capacitance decreases in an aged population. Figure 3
shows a histogram of our results for Tantalum capacitors
that illustrates the finding.
Fig. 3. Histogram showing the data on aged Ta
capacitors in the aging study. These capacitors have a
limit of +/-20%; the limits are marked as USL & LSL
for “Upper (Lower) Specification Limit.” The curves
“LT” and “ST” are “Long Term” and “Short term”
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 normal fits to the data using Minitab statistical aged parts. Fig. 5 contains an example histogram for the
software. case of 5% tolerance parts.

Other capacitor types in contrast did not show a

s-significant aging effect. While there was a systematic s-
bias of the aged ceramic capacitor population (33 units) to
be low compared to the nominal value, all were
nonetheless within the specification limits. We also
examined 30 aged metalized Mylar capacitors of various
values; we found one outlier, i.e. with a value 30% low
compared to nominal, but otherwise the population was
centered at the nominal value, and the remaining 29 items
were within specification.

3.2 Integrated Circuits

Linear integrated circuits (operational amplifiers
and comparators) represent the second category of parts
that showed aging. We found parametric degradation
occurs, in the old linear integrated circuits, leading to an
inability in some cases to meet output voltage high
(VOH) specification limits and other parameters such as
offset voltage (VOS). This effect is illustrated in Fig. 4.
Fig. 5: Population histogram for aged Zener diodes.
The original tolerance was +/- 5%. These are 30 year
old Zener diodes and show a negative shift; Cpk=0.47,
ignoring one part failed.
Other semiconductor devices examined included rectifier
diodes and transistors. Most of the rectifier diodes were
within specification, and centered on nominal values, a
few devices showed random deviations from nominal. All
of the bipolar transistors were within specification.

3.4 Resistors

Carbon composition resistors were largely (26 out of 27

measured) within specification. Fig. 6 illustrates the aged
population. Metal film resistors showed a similar
performance (310 out of 312 were within specification).
A sizeable percentage (6 of 16) of aged precision (1% and
0.1% tolerance values) wire wound resistors did not meet
the specification limits; however, all (14 of 14) of the 5%
and 10% precision units were within specification.

Fig. 4: Histogram of aging effect on one parameter in

type-741 operational amplifiers. Similar changes were
found in other analog integrated circuit types and in
other parameters in the same type.

On the other hand, the digital integrated circuits,

based on bipolar Transistor-Transistor Logic (TTL)
technology, showed little significant change compared to
nominal specifications.

3.3 Discrete Semiconductor devices

Zener diodes are the third category, which

showed s-significant changes in the aged population. The Fig. 6: Population histogram for aged carbon
effect is mainly a decrease in the reference voltage for the composition resistors. The original tolerance was +/-

330 2003 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

 5%. These are 30 year old resistors and show a slight
positive shift; Cpk=0.67, including one part out of
specification.
3.5 Relays
From our previous work, we knew that relays are subject
to aging effects, so they were not further studied here.
4. MAINTAINABILITY STRATEGY CONCLUSION
These results are useful in enhancing maintenance
strategy. Electronic circuit cards need to be examined
after >20 years of use (10 years for cards that contain
relays). The effect of every potentially out of specification
part on the performance of the circuit board needs to be
considered. We found that in our system design, out of
specification performance of a component was
insignificant or minor in many cases. However, in some
instances, noticeable system effects could result from
parametric changes in device operation. Where such cases
are identified, proactive card replacement is probably
warranted. Furthermore, adequate cooling must be
ensured at all times, as aged cards were found to be more
temperature sensitive than new ones.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank Fred Schinkowski, Frank
Anderson, Pat Callen, Mike Molitor and Dennis Watson
of GE Power Systems for their help and for many useful
discussions without whose input this work would have
not been possible. We would also like to thank Keith
Park, Donna Sherman of GE Global Research, and Steve
Moyer and Bob Gigliuto of Lockheed Martin, for taking
the data we discussed herein.
REFERENCES
1. MIL-Handbook 217F, Notice 2, 1995
2. Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment,
Telcordia Technologies Special Report SR-332, Issue 1, May 2001
2003 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Symposium
3. Product Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability
Handbook, M. Pecht, ed.; Chapter 5, Hardware Reliability, A.
Dasgupta, author, CRC Press, 1995
BIOGRAPHIES
James M. Loman, Ph.D.
GE Global Research Center
1 Research Circle
Room KWC-1609
Niskayuna, NY 12301-0008 USA
e-mail: loman@crd.ge.com
James Loman is the manager of the Advances Photonics and Electronics
Laboratory at the GE Global Research Center. Dr. Loman holds a Ph.D.
Degree from the University of Delaware, a M.S. degree from the Univ.
of Notre Dame, and a B.S. from Villanova University. He has worked
for GE and Lockheed Martin for 19 years, and is responsible for
reliability at GE as well as R&D in electronics and photonics. He is also
a Six Sigma Master Black Belt and co- author of GE’s “Design for Six
Sigma” training program.
Anthony Arrao
GE International, Inc.
1 River Road
Building 40-306
Schenectady, NY 12345 USA
e-mail: Anthony.Arrao@ps.ge.com
Anthony S. Arrao is Manager, Controls Service Engineering for GE
Power Systems in Schenectady, New York and leads the aftermarket
controls engineering team. He has worked for GE for 21 years starting
his career with GE Aircraft Engines in new product development and
advanced technology development. Mr. Arrao transferred to GE Power
Systems in 1993 and has held a number of leadership positions in
engineering and services. He possesses a Master's Degree in Mechanical
Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a
Master's Degree in Management from the M.I.T. Sloan School of
Management both located in Cambridge, Massachusetts
Roger Wyrick
GE International, Inc.
4200 Wildwood Parkway
Atlanta, GA 30339 USA
Roger.wyrick@ps.ge.com
Roger Wyrick is Customer Program Manager for GE Energy Services
Technology. Mr. Wyrick holds a M.S. degree in nuclear engineering
from the University of Illinois, a M.S. in physics from the University of
California, and a B.S. in physics from Indiana University. He has
worked for two years in GE product service and customer programs and
previously worked for 25 years for various organizations in nuclear
reactor safety and operations.
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