Assignment 1:

Name: Lê Tấn Tài

ID: SE141013
Class: SE1515

Question 1:
a. P (A U B U C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)
= 0.2+0.3+0.4=0.9
b. P(A∩B∩C) = P(A)*P(B)*P(C)
= 0.2*0.3*0.4=0.024
c. P(A∩B) = P(A)*P(B)
= 0.2*0.3=0.06
d. P[(AUB)∩C] = P(AUB)*P(C)
= (0.2+0.3)*0.4=0.20
e. P(A')=1-P(A)=1-0.2=0.8
P(B')=1-P(B)=1-0.3=0.7
P(C')=1-P(C)=1-0.4=0.6
P(A'∩B'∩ C')=P(A')*P(B')*P(C')
P(A'∩B'∩ C')=0.8*0.7*0.6=0.336

Question 2:
a. P(camper with Canadian license plates) = 0.12
b. P(a vehicle with Canadian license plates is a camper)
P(Camper| Canadian Plates) = 0.09/0.12 = .75
c. P ( Canadian plates or camper) = 0.12 + 0.28 - 0.09 = 0.31
P ( not Canadian plates or camper) = 1 – 0.31 = 0.69
Question 3:
 a. P = (defective – 1) / (total – 1) = (8 – 1) / (350 –1) = 0.02
b. P = ( 8 / 350 ) * [ (8 –1) / (350 –1) ] = 4.5 * 10^(-4)
c. P = ( 342 / 350 ) * ( 341 / 349 ) = 0.95

Question 4: P = ( 0.75*60%) / (0.75*60% + 0.25*30%) = 0.857

Question 5:
a. P (X ≤ 1/18) = Fx(1/18) = 0 because 1/18 < 1/8 .
b. P (X ≤ ¼) = Fx(1/4) = 0.9
c. P (X ≤ 5/16) = FX(5/16) = 0.9 because 1/4 < 5/16 < 1/8 .
d. P (X > ¼) = 1 − P (X ≤ ¼) = 1 − Fx(1/4) = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1.
e. P (X ≤ ½) = FX(1/2) = 1 because 1/2 > 3/8 .
Question 6:
P = 15Cx * 0.25^x * (1 - 0.25)^(15 - x)
a. P ( 3 ≤ x ≤ 6 ) = P (x=3) + P (x=4) + P (x=5) + P (x=6)
= 15C3*0.25^3*0.75^(15-3) + 15C4*0.25^4*0.75^(15-4)
+ 15C5*0.25^5*0.75^(15-5) + 15C6*0.25^6*0.75^(15-6)
= 0.707
b. P ( x < 4 ) = P (x=0) + P (x=1) + P (x=2) + P (x=3)
= 15C0*0.25^0*0.75^(15-0) + 15C1*0.25^1*0.75^(15-1)
+ 15C2*0.25^2*0.75^(15-2) + 15C3*0.25^3*0.75^(15-3)
= 0.4613
c. P ( x > 5 ) = 1 – P(x ≤ 5)
= 1 - [ P (x=0) + P (x=1) + P (x=2) + P (x=3) + P (x=4) + P (x=5)]
= 1 - [15C0*0.25^0*0.75^(15-0) + 15C1*0.25^1*0.75^(15-1)
+ 15C2*0.25^2*0.75^(15-2) + 15C3*0.25^3*0.75^(15-3)
+ 15C4*0.25^4*0.75^(15-4) + 15C5*0.25^5*0.75^(15-5)]
= 0.1484
Question 7:
a. P = (6 –1)C(4 –1) * 0.8^4 * (1-0.8)^(6-4) = 0.16384
b. P = (3 –1)C(1 –1) * 0.8^1 * 0.2^(3 –1) = 0.0032

Question 8:
a. P(FFFS) = 0.2^3 * 0.8 = 0.0064
b. P = 1 – P(FFFF) = 1 – 0.2^4 = 0.9984
c. P = P(FFF) = 0.2^3 = 0.008

Question 9:
a.
+ probability that no lesions are present in at least one selected site:
P(no lesions) = (5C0 * 45C8) / (50C8) = 0.4015
=> probability that lesions are present in at least one selected site:
P = 1 – P(no lesions) = 1 – 0.4015 = 0.5985

b.
+ probability that lesions are present in 0 selected site
P(no lesions) = (5C0 * 45C8) / (50C8) = 0.4015
+ probability that lesions are present in 1 selected site
P(1) = (5C1 * 49C7) / (50C8) = 0.4226
=> the probability that lesions are present in two or more selected sites:
P = 1 – P(no lesions) - P(1) = 1 – 0.4015 - 0.4226 = 0.1759
c.
+ probability that lesions are present in 0 selected site:
P(no lesions) = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1 = (5C0 * [ 45C(n - 0)]) / (50Cn)
<=> [45! / (n!*(45-n)!) ] / [50!/ (n!*(50-n)!) ] = 0.1
 <=> [(50-n) * (49-n) * (48-n) * (47-n) * (46-n)] / [50*49*48*47*46] = 0.1
<=> n = 17.6942 < 18

=> need selected 18 minimum numder of sites.

Question 10:
a. P (X = 0) = (e^(-5*1/6) * (5*1/6)^0 ) / 0! = e^(-5/6) = 0.435
b. P (x ≥ 1) = 1 – P(x=0)
= 1 - (e^(-5*1/3) * (5*1/3)^0 ) / 0!
= 1 – e^(-5/3) = 0.81
c. 0.1 = P(x=0) = (e^(-X*1/6) * (X*1/6)^0 ) / 0! = e^(X/6)
<=> ln(0.1) = ln(e^(-X/6)
<=> -2.3 = -X/6
=> X = 13.8