1

A CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19)

MATHEMATICAL MODEL WITH ASYMPTOMATIC AND
SYMPTOMATIC GROUPS.
Case Study submitted to
C.V. Raman Global University, BBSR
For the partial fulfillment of the requirement of

Master of Science
In
APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
By
SAROJ KUMAR PATRA(MAM20006)
Under the supervision of
DR. PRASANT NAYAK

Department Of Applied Mathematics And Computing

C.V Raman Global University

Bidya Nagar, Mahura, Janla, Bhubaneswar – 752054, Dist – Khurda, Odisha

May – 2022
2

CONTENTS

ABSRACT............................................................................................................................ 3

1.INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................3

2.MODEL FORMULATION...............................................................................................4

3.QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED MODEL...........................................7

3.1. DISEASE FREE EQUILIBRIUM POINT (DFE).......................................................8

3.2. LOCAL STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE DISEASE-FREE EQUILIBRIUM.......10

3.3. EXISTENCE OF ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM POINT.............................................11

3.4. LOCAL STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM E 1..........13

USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL...............................................................................14

4.CONCLUSION................................................................................................................15

5.REFERENCE..................................................................................................................16
3

ABSRACT

The goal of this paper's study is to use a mathematical model that uses both the Ordinary
Differential Equation (ODE) and the Fractional Differential Equation to characterize the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. For some years, the disease's
transmission has been on the rise over the world, with no end in sight. The numerical
simulation that was fitted to the model was based on data from COVID-19 cases in
Nigeria. We included the consideration of both asymptomatic and symptomatic sick
persons, as well as the fact that an exposed individual is either quarantined or moved to
one of the diseased classes, with the chance that a susceptible individual might also
migrate to the quarantined class. The disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) and the
endemic equilibrium point (EEP) were discovered to be the two equilibrium points in the
suggested model (E1). When the fundamental reproduction number, R0 < 1, the
equilibrium points (E0) are locally asymptotically stable, whereas (E1) is globally
asymptotically stable. The parameters in the R0 > 1 were subjected to a sensitivity
analysis, and the profile of each state variable was presented using the fitted values of the
parameters to demonstrate the disease's spread. The contact rate between susceptible
people and the rate of transfer of persons from exposed to symptomatically infected
classes are the most sensitive factors in the R0. Furthermore, R0≈ 1.7031 is determined as
the data's fundamental reproduction number.

1.INTRODUCTION

A mathematical model is a representation of the real world's workings that uses

mathematical symbols, equations, and formulae. Many areas, including medical [39],
agriculture [25,47], management and social sciences [41], and references mentioned
therein, employ mathematical models. These models might be linear, nonlinear,
stochastic, or deterministic in nature. In the medical field, Disease epidemics have been
predicted using mathematical models, and many illnesses have been avoided or cured
using these models. Many mathematical models are now employed to describe disease
processes, and they may be found in books devoted to mathematical models in biology
and medicine; for additional information, see [10,18,26,35]. By the end of December
2019, the globe's lethal coronavirus pandemic, dubbed COVID-19, had erupted in the
historic town of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and had spread to almost all of the
planet by 2020 [2]. For a short time, there were several unexplained occurrences of
cough, pneumonia, dyspnea, tiredness, and fever in Wuhan, China. The entrance of
COVID-19 led in the closure of businesses, schools, marketplaces, intermingle, curfew,
lockdown, and a reduction in gatherings, to name a few.
4

INDIA COVID-19 CASE IN 2020

10000000
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

NO OF CASE NO OF DEATH

FIGURE 1

The following is how the paper is structured: In Section 2, we formulated the model as
well as the description of the model's parameters. We get the invariant area in Section 3.
We also compute the fundamental reproduction number and investigate its disease-free
equilibrium (DFE), local stability, endemic equilibrium existence, endemic equilibrium
local stability, and endemic equilibrium global stability. The importance of sensitivity
analysis and numerical simulation is also emphasized. Finally, in Section 6, we present
the paper's conclusion.

2.MODEL FORMULATION

In this study, a model of the coronavirus (COVID-19) illness with simple transmission
rates is investigated. Let N(t) be the total human population. This population is separated
into seven groups: susceptible people S(t), exposed people E(t), asymptotically infected
people IA (t), symptomatic infected people IS (t), quarantined people Q(t), and those who
have recovered/removed from COVID-19 R(t ). Taking this into account, the overall
population is N (t )=S (t )+ E (t)+Q(t)+ I A (t )+ I S (t)+ R(t ).

Natural human natality and death rates are represented by Λ and μ , respectively.
Susceptible individuals (S) become infected through sufficient contact with exposed
individuals (E) at a rate of or simply transfer to the confined class at a rate of. Individuals
who have been exposed (E) may migrate to the quarantined (Q) class first, or they may
get infected without symptoms (asymptomatic) (IA) or with symptoms (symptomatic) (I
S) at rates of, and, respectively. Individuals who have been quarantined (Q) may also be
proven infected with a test with symptoms (IS) or without symptoms (IA) at rates of ν and
ϑ , respectively. Asymptomatic infected people (IA) may recover at a rate of r1, whereas
symptomatic infected people (Is) may recover at a rate of r2.
5

Table 1

NOTATION USED AND THEIR MEANING.

Paramete Description
r
τ Transfer rate of susceptible people to quarantine
β The frequency of contact between susceptible and exposed persons
δ Coronavirus mortality rate in the symptomatic infected person class
Γ Transfer of exposed persons to quarantine at a high rate
η Transfer rate of people from the exposed class to the symptomatic infected
class
ϑ The proportion of quarantined people in the class of asymptomatic infected
people
μ Rate of natural mortality
v Transfer rate of quarantined persons to the class of symptomatic infected
individuals
σ Transfer rate of exposed persons to asymptomatic ones
r1 The percentage of asymptomatic sick people who recover
r2 Individuals who are symptomatic and infected have a higher rate of
recovery.

Each of these classes may drop due to natural mortality μ, but the class of persons
infected with symptoms (IS) may also decrease due to disease death at the rate of δ.
Death as a result of the disease is not regarded in the infected class of persons without
symptoms (IA). This model does not account for the risk of reinfection following
recovery.
6

IA

R
S

IS

FIGURE 2 TRANSMISSION PATTERN OF COVID-19

The schematic diagram of the dissemination of COVID-19 is given in Fig.2 below. A

system of nonlinear differential equations is generated and provided below (see Table 1)
using the schematic design represented in Fig. 2:
7

dS(t )
= Λ−(τ + μ) S (t )−βS (t) E(t )
dt
dE(t )
=βS (t) E(t )−(Γ + μ +η+σ ) E(t)
dt
dQ(t)
=τS(t)+ Γ E (t)−(μ+v +ϑ )Q(t)
dt
d I A (t )
=σE(t)+ϑQ (t )−( μ+r 1 ) I A (t)
dt
d I S ( t)
=ηE(t )+ vQ(t )−( δ + μ+r 2 ) I S (t)
dt
dR(t )
=r 1 I A (t)+r 2 I S (t )−μR(t)
dt

subject to the following initial conditions:

S ( 0 ) ≥0 , E(0)≥ 0 , Q(0)≥ 0 , I A (0)≥ 0I S (0) ≥ 0 , R(0)≥ 0.

3.QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED MODEL

In the research of infectious illness models, reproduction number is critical [23]. This
section computes and displays the fundamental reproduction number and invariant area
for the suggested model , as well as investigates the

• locally asymptotically stability of its illness free equilibrium .

• One-of-a-kind endemic equilibrium point .

• The single endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable.

• Its endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

8

3.1. DISEASE FREE EQUILIBRIUM POINT (DFE)

Setting the E=Q=I A=I S =R=0, parameters As a result, the disease-free equilibrium is
achieved. As a result, according to the system (2.1), the DFE point is supplied by

( τ +λ μ , 0,0,0,0,0) .  
DFE=( S0 , 0,0,0,0,0 ) =

The predicted value of infection rate per time unit is given by R 0, which is the
fundamental reproduction number. The illness is spread across a vulnerable community
by an infected person. The article provides an equation involving the classifications of
exposed and infected population based on the system (2.1). In the infected classes, the
disease reproduction number R 0of the suggested model (2.1) is defined. [23,51] describes
this quantity as a threshold quantity. R0 <1 indicates that disease will reduce, but R0 >1
indicates that disease will continue within a community, and R0 =1 indicates that further
research is needed. R0 is calculated using the next generation matrix technique [23], which
has been employed by various authors.

We strongly advise using a next-generation matrix to determine the model's fundamental

reproduction number (2.1). The article develops an equation that involves the classes of
the exposed population, infected population without symptom, and infected population
with symptom, as shown in model (2.1), without losing generality:
9

dE (t)
¿ βS(t )E(t)−(Γ + μ+η+ σ) E(t )
dt
dQ (t)
¿ τS(t )+ Γ E (t)−( μ+ v+ ϑ )Q(t )
dt
d I A (t)
¿ σE (t)+ϑQ (t)−( μ+r 1 ) I A (t)
dt
d I S ( t)
¿ ηE(t)+ vQ(t)−( δ + μ+ r 2 ) I S (t)
dt

The study yields [51] from equations (3.3) based on [51].

matrix F and v , l.e.

( )
βS(t ) E( t)
F= 0
0
0

and

( )
(Γ + μ+ η+σ ) E(t)
−τS(t )−Γ E(t )+(μ+ v+ ϑ )Q(t )
V=
−σE (t)−ϑQ (t )+ ( μ+r 1 ) I A (t)
−ηE(t)−vQ(t )+ ( δ + μ+ r 2 ) I S (t)

F and V ‘s Jacobian matrix at DFE, indicated by F and V ,are as follows:

( )
βΛ
0 0 0
τ+ μ
F= 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

( )
Γ + μ+ η+σ 0 0 0
−Γ μ+v +ϑ 0 0
V=
−σ −ϑ μ+r 1 0
−η −v 0 δ+ μ+r 2
10

| |
( τ + μ) R0 −λ −( Γ + μ +η+σ ) 0 0 0 0
Γ + μ+η+ σ −λ 0 0 0 0
τ γ −(μ+ v+ ϑ )−λ 0 0 0
det ⁡( J E −λI ) =
1
0 σ ϑ −( μ+r 1) −λ 0 0
0 η υ 0 −( δ + μ+r 2 ) −λ 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ−λ

As a result, F V −1 is the model structure's next generation matrix (3.3). As a result, as

indicated in [23], R0 =ρ ( F V −1 ), where denotes the spectral radius of the next-generation
matrix F V −1. Thus,

( )
βΛ
0 0 0
α (τ + μ)
−1
FV = 0 0 0 0 .
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

βΛ
So, ρ ( F V ) =
−1
=R 0, where α =Γ + μ+ η+σ .
α ( τ + μ)
Therefore,

βΛ
R0 = > 0.
( Γ + μ+η+ σ )(τ + μ)

3.2. LOCAL STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE DISEASE-FREE

EQUILIBRIUM

Theorem. The disease-free equilibrium If R0 >0 , DFE is locally asymptotically stable.

Proof. The Jacobian matrix with regard to the system (2.1) may be calculated as follows:
11

( )
−(τ + μ)−βE −βS 0 0 0 0
βE βS−( Γ +μ +η+σ ) 0 0 0 0
τ Γ −( μ+ v +θ) 0 0 0
J= ,
0 σ ϑ −( μ+r 1) 0 0
0 η v 0 −( δ + μ+r 2 ) 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ

which implies

( )
−β Λ
−( τ + μ) 0 0 0 0
(τ + μ)
β Λ− βS−( Γ + μ+ η+ σ )
βE 0 0 0 0
(τ + μ)
J DFE= .
τ Γ −(μ+ v +θ) 0 0 0
0 σ ϑ −( μ+ r 1 ) 0 0
0 η v 0 −( δ+ μ+r 2 ) 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ

( J DFE−λI ) =0, is the characteristic polynomial of the Jacobian matrix at DFE, where λ is
the eigenvalue and I is the 6 × 6 identity matrix. As a result, (( J DFE−λI ))'s is

When you simplify and solve for λ , you get

λ 1=−( τ + μ)<0
λ2=−(μ+v+ϑ )< 0
λ 3=−( μ+ r 1) < 0
λ4 =−( δ + μ+r 2 )
λ5 =−μ<0
λ 6=( Γ +μ+η+ σ) ( R0 −1 ) <0 ,   provided that   R0 <1

The evidence is now complete.

12

3.3. EXISTENCE OF ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM POINT

In this part, we'll look at whether or not there is an endemic equilibrium point. Let's
¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
consider it endemic equilibrium. by E1=¿ ( S , E ,Q , I A , I S , R ). For simplicity,
S(t )=S , E (t)=E ,Q(t )=Q , I A (t)=¿ I A , I S (t)=I S and R(t )=R , will be utilized in the
future. This endemic equilibrium always yields the following results:
¿ ¿ ¿
0 ¿ Λ−(τ + μ)S −β S E
¿ ¿ ¿
0 ¿ β S E −(Γ + μ+η+ σ )E
¿ ¿ ¿
0 ¿ τ S + Γ E −(μ+ v +ϑ )Q
0 ¿ σ E¿ +θ Q¿− ( μ +r 1 ) I ¿A
0 ¿ η E ¿ + v Q¿ −( δ + μ+r 2 ) I ¿S
¿ ¿ ¿
0 ¿ r 1 I A +r 2 I S −μ R

We get (3.6) from the first equation.

¿ Λ
S= ¿
Γ + μ+ β E

We get (3.7) by plugging (3.7) into the second Equation of (3.6).

( τ+ μ)
E¿ = ( R0−1 )
β

When E* is substituted in (3.7), the result is

¿ Γ + μ+η+ σ
s= .In the third Equation of (3.6), using (3.8) and (3.9), we get
β

τβ(Γ + μ+η+σ )+ Γ (τ + μ)
Q¿ = ( R0 −1 )
β ( μ+ v +ϑ )

We get the fourth Equation of (3.6) by substituting Eqs. (3.8) and (3.10).

¿ ( τ + μ)[σ (μ+ v+ ϑ )+ Γ ϑ ]
I A= ( R 0−1 ) .
β (μ+v +ϑ ) ( μ+r 1 )

In the fifth equation of (3.6), we get by combining Eqs. (3.8) and (3.10).

(τ + μ)[η( μ+ v+ ϑ )+ τβv( Γ +v + η+ σ )+ Γ ]
I ¿S= ( R 0−1 ) .
β ( μ+ v+ ϑ )(δ + μ+ r)

When Eqs. (3.11) and (3.12) are combined in the sixth equation of (3.6), the result is

R
¿
¿
μ[
1 [ (τ+ μ)[σ (μ+v +θ)+ Γ ϑ ]r 1
β ( μ+ v+ ϑ )(μ +r )
¿ ¿
13

As a result, we arrive to the following theorem.

Theorem :The system (2.1) has a single endemic equilibrium point, which is defined by

| |
( τ + μ) R0 −λ −( Γ + μ +η+σ ) 0 0 0 0
Γ + μ+η+ σ −λ 0 0 0 0
τ γ −(μ+ v+ ϑ )−λ 0 0 0
det ⁡( J E −λI ) =
1
0 σ ϑ −( μ+r 1) −λ 0 0
0 η υ 0 −( δ + μ+r 2 ) −λ 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ−λ

¿¿

E1=¿ ( γ + μ +η+σ
β
, p ( R −1 ) , q ( R −1 ) ,r ( R −1 ) , s ( R −1 ) ,
0 0 0 0

( r r 1 +s r 2 )
μ )
( R0 −1 ) ,

whenever R0 >1 and

(τ + μ)
p ¿
β
τβ( γ + μ+ η+σ )+ Γ ( τ + μ)
q ¿
β (μ +v +ϑ )
( τ + μ)[σ (μ+ v+ ϑ )+ Γ ϑ ]
r ¿
β(μ +v +ϑ ) ( μ+r 1 )
(τ + μ)[η(μ+v +ϑ )+ τβv( Γ +v +η+ σ )+ Γ ]
s ¿
β ( μ+v +ϑ ) ( δ + μ+r 2 )
14

3.4. LOCAL STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE ENDEMIC

EQUILIBRIUM E1

Theorem 3.3 If the endemic equilibrium E 1 is locally asymptotically stable, R0 >1..

Proof. The Jacobian matrix with regard to the system (2.1) is provided by:

( )
−(τ + μ)−βE −βS 0 0 0 0
βE βS−( Γ +μ +η+σ ) 0 0 0 0
τ Γ −( μ+ v +ϑ ) 0 0 0
J= ,
0 σ ϑ −( μ+ r 1 ) 0 0
0 η 0 0 −( δ+ μ+r 2 ) 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ

which implies,

( )
−(τ + μ)R 0 −(Γ + μ+ η+ σ ) 0 0 0 0
Γ + μ+η+ σ 0 0 0 0 0
τ Γ −( μ+v +ϑ ) 0 0 0
JE = 1
0 σ ϑ −( μ+r 1 ) 0 0
0 η v 0 −( δ+ μ +r 2 ) 0
0 0 0 r1 r2 −μ

The Jacobian matrix's characteristic polynomial at E1 is given by det ⁡( J Z −λI )=0 . where
1

λ is the eigenvalue and I is 6 × 6 identity matrix. Thus,

Making the characteristic equation by simplifying the characteristic polynomial and

solving for λ , gives

λ1=−(μ+ v +θ)< 0
λ 2=−( μ+r 1 ) < 0
λ 3=−( δ + μ+r 2 ) < 0
λ4 =−μ<0

The quadratic λ 2+(τ + μ) Sso λ+ ¿ has all positive phrases, hence its origins must all be
negative. Meanings λ 5,6< 0.

The evidence is now complete.

15

USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Due to the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire globe has been enduring a
huge and unprecedented global catastrophe since the beginning of 2020. Acute
respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a severe and occasionally deadly respiratory
condition caused by the virus. Such a contagious disease with such a massive social and
economic impact has never been seen before, at least in recent memory. COVID-19
evolved from a strain of a new coronavirus that has quickly spread over the
world, beginning in Wuhan, China and infecting a huge number of individuals.  The
spread of this disease has a complicated time dependency that is influenced not only by
the number of sick persons, but also by factors such as the total population of the country,
various standards and policies adopted by the nation at a given moment, and many others.
It is difficult to predict the size of the population that may be affected by this pandemic
and the typical time required for its control due to a lack of previous experience in
controlling a similar pandemic with such a high impact in the recent past due to a lack of
previous experience in controlling a similar pandemic with such a high impact.
The aforementioned dilemma necessitates computer modelling to gain a
quantitative knowledge of the time evolution of this complicated and non-linear process.
Statistical and mathematical examination of provided data can give useful insights into
the virus's spread pattern and thus aid in the implementation of various social
interventions to stop the virus from spreading as rapidly as feasible. Furthermore,
assessing reported epidemic data is critical for studying the underlying factors that
contribute to disease propagation and making forecasts about future trends. This allows
diverse groups to organise their measures toward limiting the spread more efficiently.
16

4.CONCLUSION

We constructed a simple mathematical model to analyses the transmission and regulation

of the new coronavirus illness (COVID-19) from human to human in our present study.
The researchers employed mathematical epidemiological principles to simulate how
people are exposed to and infected with the illness, as well as their potential recovery.

Both the ordinary differential equation (ODE) and the fractional differential equation
were used in the mathematical study. It is critical for health practitioners and the rest of
the globe to comprehend and foresee sick persons in order to plan for citizens' health
concerns and to manage the spread rate with limited supplies. The simulation's data is
based on the spread of illness in India. The model's positivity is established, and the
model's fundamental reproduction number, R0 , is obtained. When R0 <1, the disease-free
equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable; otherwise, it is unstable. The
system's conduct further proved India's existing position. Both classical differential
equations show that the sickness is deteriorating, with a high rate of recovery.

As a result, it's simple to see how, in addition to quarantine and testing, a restriction on
social interaction in India might help reduce the number of infected people. In the fight
against the pandemic, it should be of particular significance to everyone that exposure as
a consequence of contact with infected persons, particularly those who are asymptomatic
(IA), be limited.
17

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