1. Which company is this?

NS Software Systems

2. What project they are working on?

Something to do with telecom

3. How many employees are working on this project?

3
4. Do they interact with each other about attrition?

The description says they are not discussing with each other
about whether to attrite or not. So, their decision to leave is
independent of each other.

This information is going to affect our calculations. Don’t you

think so?

5. What is known about the rate of attrition?

i. Is Laxmi’s rate different from Partho’s?

The rate is same for all candidates.

ii. Also, the rate of attrition is 20% for all, same for all.

iii. The HR is trying to bring the attrition level down to 15%.

How?
 By giving incentives. The incentives will affect the cost
involved, the variable cost in accounting. The extra cost
should commensurate the advantage you get for timely
delivery of your assignment.

6. Suppose Dinesh attrite. Will they get a replacement? Will there

be any delay in the project?

Yes. Because knowledge transfer will take time.

7. If one person leaves what is the delay? One week.

If two persons attrite, then delay is 3 weeks.

If all leave, the delay is 6 weeks.

8. Ideally replacements can leave also. And so is true for

replacements of the replacements. But what is the assurance
here?

The replacements will not leave, as assured by Sandy.

9. What is the problem we want to address in this problem?

Delay due attrition is the issue.

10. What is the probability that there is no delay? Or, what is

the probability that there will be delay for one week or three
weeks or for 6 weeks?

Can we calculate these probabilities?

11. Next question is if Madhu is successful in reducing the
chance of attrition, then what will be its impact on the
expected delay.

12. Everything is subject to Sandy and Madhu are not leaving.

13. We can not reach at expectation until we calculate the

probabilities.

14. I must mention here that the probabilities can be

calculated using probability tree like this one.

Dinesh Lakshmi Partho

S
0.8
S
0.8 L
0.2
L
0.2
15. Note each of the outcomes. How should we call them?

Events. These are compound events. Not only that, these

nominal values of events. These are descriptions of the real-life
scenarios. For example, S1L1S3 means Dinesh stays, Laxmi
leaves and Partho stays.

Are they deterministic events? Can you tell me that if Dinesh

quits before Lakshmi them what will the delay?

These are random events. The probabilities are joint

probabilities of compound events.

16. Remember this method is for enumerate the

probabilities. The identity of individuals does not matter.
Also, if we are to calculate the expectation, we need to convert
these events into numeric values of a random variable.

X = number of persons in team leaving

Possible values = 0, 1, 2, 3.

17. The other method is to use the binomial model.

What is the random variable here?

X = number of persons leaving

Then the arguments above clearly satisfy the conditions for a

binomial model. What are the conditions?

18. P(X=k) = ? Use formula for binomial pmf.

19. X ~ Binomial(n=3, π=0.8)

20. Here is the probability table using binom.dist().

21. The expected delay is