9/9/21, 10:55 AM COVID-SIM Run Simulation | Ask A Biologist

bb’s Simulation Summary

COVID-19 Outbreak in Middlecity

Population Breakdown, Day 364
Starting Population: 12,500,003

Vaccinated* 0%
Dead 0.64%
Recovered 68.59%
Uninfected 30.68%

0 people 80,187 people 8,573,776 people 3,835,196 people

Currently Exposed** Currently Asymptomatic Currently Symptomatic Currently Hospitalized
0.03%
0.04%
0.01%
0.01%

4,231 people 4,529 people 776 people 1,592 people

Population Outcome Graph

100%

80%

60%
Percentage

40%

20%

0%
0 70 140 210 280 350
Time (days)

Day 364
Starting Population: 12,500,003

Total Vaccinated 0%
Total Dead 0.65%
Total Recovered 69.03%
Total Exposed 70.05%

0 people 80,187 people 8,573,776 people 8,700,287 people

Total Asymptomatic 56%
Total Symptomatic 14%
Total Hospitalized 8.73%
Vaccine Herd Immunity
6,955,615 people 1,738,904 people 1,083,862 people Threshold

73.88%

When the number of people who are vaccinated is higher than the herd immunity line (threshold), the population is protected
by vaccine-induced herd immunity.

Day 364: No vaccine-induced herd immunity.

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Safety Measures Implemented

Cloth masks active day 6-365, 25% effective, 10% compliance.

Distancing active day 0-365, 100% effective, 16% compliance.

No one in your population was vaccinated.

COVID-19
Full name: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2

COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Symptoms include fever or chills, tiredness,
body aches, headache, sore throat, loss of taste or smell, and digestive issues. More severe cases can also show trouble
breathing, chest pain, confusion, and problems staying awake. Older adults and those with other health problems are at the
greatest risk. COVID-19 spreads more easily than flu and can lead to more serious illness in those who catch it. The best ways
to fight the spread of the disease include taking precautions when outside of your home by social distancing, wearing a mask,
and washing your hands often. Everyone who can should also get vaccinated against the disease to help slow or stop the
pandemic.

The number of people an infected person is likely to infect (Base R naught): 2.07
Proportion of illnesses that are asymptomatic: 80%
Proportion of illnesses that are symptomatic: 20%
Hospitalization rate for those who show symptoms: 16.67%
Death rate per day for those who are hospitalized: 0.95%
Death rate per day of those who show symptoms: 0.06%
Daily recovery rates for:
Infected people who show no symptoms: 20%
Infected people who show symptoms: 10%
People who are hospitalized with severe infection: 12.5%

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Table Data
Starting Population: 12,500,003

Display: Weeks | Months

Per day numbers for: A = Asymptomatic S = Symptomatic H = Hospitalized R = Recovered D = Dead

Day A S H R D Day A S H R D
0 0 3 0 0 0 196 63,900 12,646 11,083 270,689 1,964
7 1 1 1 2 0 203 92,312 18,244 16,123 397,928 2,895
14 2 0 1 5 0 210 131,309 25,899 23,167 580,640 4,242
21 3 1 1 9 0 217 182,729 35,937 32,706 838,333 6,161
28 4 1 1 15 0 224 246,684 48,317 45,053 1,192,750 8,839
35 7 1 1 25 0 231 319,752 62,278 60,022 1,663,773 12,468
42 10 2 2 38 0 238 393,369 76,045 76,551 2,262,232 17,203
49 15 3 3 58 1 245 454,124 86,954 92,464 2,980,961 23,086
56 22 4 4 88 1 252 487,567 92,283 104,766 3,788,552 29,978
63 33 7 6 134 1 259 484,647 90,528 110,628 4,631,598 37,526
70 50 10 9 201 2 266 446,531 82,244 108,643 5,447,416 45,223
77 75 15 13 302 2 273 383,796 69,709 99,494 6,181,565 52,534
84 111 22 19 452 3 280 310,819 55,729 85,524 6,800,575 59,029
91 166 33 28 677 5 287 239,898 42,531 69,621 7,294,568 64,470
98 248 49 42 1,012 7 294 178,421 31,341 54,192 7,671,725 68,805
105 371 74 63 1,514 11 301 129,099 22,514 40,709 7,949,962 72,123
112 554 110 95 2,262 16 308 91,581 15,885 29,752 8,149,957 74,583
119 828 164 142 3,381 24 315 64,069 11,069 21,299 8,290,927 76,364
126 1,236 245 211 5,051 37 322 44,393 7,649 15,016 8,388,813 77,629
133 1,846 366 316 7,544 55 329 30,559 5,255 10,470 8,455,965 78,517
140 2,755 547 471 11,266 81 336 20,944 3,597 7,242 8,501,533 79,133
147 4,109 815 703 16,820 121 343 14,313 2,456 4,982 8,532,108 79,559
154 6,126 1,215 1,048 25,103 181 350 9,763 1,674 3,414 8,552,344 79,851
161 9,122 1,810 1,562 37,446 270 357 6,652 1,140 2,333 8,565,486 80,050
168 13,563 2,690 2,325 55,815 403 364 4,529 776 1,592 8,573,776 80,187
175 20,121 3,990 3,454 83,104 600
182 29,748 5,897 5,118 123,532 893
189 43,760 8,669 7,554 183,187 1,326

Vaccine Science (https://askabiologist.asu.edu/explore/vaccines) | Ask A Biologist (https://askabiologist.asu.edu) | Arizona State University

(https://asu.edu)

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