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Probability and Statistics

Lecture 6

Basic Concepts of Probability

Course Instructor: Abbas Khan

Engr. Abbas Khan

Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Experiment

An experiment is any action or process whose outcome is subject to

uncertainty.
Examples: Experiments that may be of interest include
 Tossing a coin, throwing a dice or picking up a card from
stack of cards several times.
 Obtaining blood types from a group of individuals
 Number of cars arriving at a point

A result of an experiment is called an outcome.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment, denoted by S, is the set of all
possible individual outcomes of that experiment.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment, denoted by S, is the set of all
possible outcomes of that experiment.

Example:
The simplest experiment to which probability applies is one with
two possible outcomes. One such experiment consists of
examining a single bolt or stud to see whether it is defective.
The sample space for this experiment can be abbreviated as
S = {N, D}, where N represents not defective, D represents
defective, and the braces are used to enclose the elements of a set.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Events

An event is the outcome of an experiment or trial. It is also known as

Random event.

A simple event is an outcome of an experiment that cannot be split

further. It is a single outcome of an experiment.

Note: The collection of simple event is called event or sample space.

An event is compound if it consists of more than one outcome.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

If we examine three bolts in sequence and note the result of each

examination, then an outcome for the entire experiment is any
sequence of N 's and D's of length
3S = {N N N, N N D, N DN, N DD, DN N, DN D, DDN, DDD}

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

The sample space is the list of pairs of numbers in the chart.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

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P r o b a b i l i ty Sample Spaces a n d Events

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P r o b a b i l i ty Sample Spaces a n d Events

Compound Events

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

Consider an experiment in which each of three vehicles taking a

particular freeway exit turns left (L) or right (R) at the end of the
exit ramp.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

Consider an experiment in which each of three vehicles taking a

particular freeway exit turns left (L) or right (R) at the end of the
exit ramp.
The eight possible outcomes that comprise the sample space are
LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR, LRR, RLR, RRL, and RRR. Thus
there are eight simple events, among which are E1 = {LLL} and
E5 = {LRR}.

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Some compound events include

A = {RLL, LRL, LLR}=the event that exactly one of the
three vehicles turns right
B = {LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR}=the event that at most one of
the vehicles turns right
C = {LLL, RRR}= the event that all three vehicles turn in
the same direction

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY

 Probability of an event is the likelihood that it will occur when

you do the experiment.
◦ A real number between 0 and 1
◦ Usually denoted by P(E), P(F), etc.
◦ Interpretation – proportion of time the event occurs in
many independent repetitions (replications) of the
experiment.

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY BASICS

◦ What is the chance that a given event will occur?

◦ Probability = 0 means no chance that the event will
happen;
◦ Probability = 1 means surety/certain that it will happen.
◦ If it is uncertain whether or not an event will happen,
then its probability is some fraction between 0 and 1
(or a fraction converted to a decimal number).
◦ The total probability of all possible events always sums
to 1 (one).

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

CHANCE

 Chance is how likely it is that something will happen. To state

a chance, we use a percent.

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY AND SET THEORY

An event is just a set, so relationships and results from

elementary set theory can be used to study events. The following
operations will be used to create new events from given events.

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROBABILITY AND SET THEORY

Complementary Events
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event E.
The complement of E is denoted by E ' .
The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the complement
make up the entire sample space.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Example: Finding Complements

Find the complement of each event.

Rolling a die and getting a 4.
Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel.
Getting a consonant
Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J.
Getting February, March, April, May, August, September,
October, November, or December
Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday.
Getting Saturday or Sunday

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Example: Residence of People

P (E) + P (E ' ) = 1
Example: If the probability that a person lives in an
industrialized country of the world is 15, find the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country.
Solution:
Let A = not living in an industrialized country
A' = living in an industrialized country
1 4
P (A) = 1 − P (A ') = 1 − =
5 5

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY AND SET THEORY

Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint events

= 0

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Probability Sample Spaces a n d Events

Example

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P r o b a b i l i ty Some Relations from Set Theory

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY AND SET THEORY

Union events

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

PROBABILITY AND SET THEORY

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P r o b a b i l i ty Some Relations from Set Theory

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Example

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability Some Relations from Set Theory

Rules of Probability

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

There are four basic properties of probability. These

properties are helpful in solving probability problems, in
understanding the nature of probability, and in deciding if
your answers to the problems are correct.

Engr. Abbas Khan

Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 1

The probability of any event E is a number between and

including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1.
Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than
1.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 2

If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no

members in the sample space), its probability is 0.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 2

If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no

members in the sample space), its probability is 0.
Example:
When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.
Solution:
Since the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, it is impossible to
get a 9. Hence, the probability is P (9) = 06= 0.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 3

If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

Example:
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7?.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 3

If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

Example:
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7?.
Solution:
Since all outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are less than 7, the
probability is
6
P (number less than 7) = =1
6

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Probability values range from 0 to 1.

When the probability of an event is close to 0, its occurrence
is highly unlikely.
When the probability of an event is near 0.5, there is about a
50 − 50 chance that the event will occur.
When the probability of an event is close to 1, the event is
highly likely to occur.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 4

The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample

space is 1.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

PROPERTY 4

The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample

space is 1.
For example, in the roll of a fair die, each outcome in the
sample space has a probability of 1 6. Hence, the sum of the
probabilities of the outcomes is as shown.

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example #1

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example #1

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example #1

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example#2

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example#2

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example#2

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Probability A x i o m s , I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d P r o p e r t i e s of P r o b a b i l i t y

Axioms: Example#2

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