Assessing Daily Tropical Rainfall Variations Using a Neuro-Fuzzy Classification Model

1. Introduction The extreme variations of rainfall which affects the agricultural activities should be measured in order to understand its variability distribution in a time period. For that, we can use fuzzy method to forecast the rainfall so we can also calibrate a storm-event rainfall-runoff model and the use of artificial neural networks for longrange predictions of perceptions. One of disadvantages of such applications of neural fuzzy system and neural networks is difficulty in adapting the techniques to a modified environment to enhance interpretation o the data. In application to rainfall-runoff modeling, fuzzy clustering based neural networks have better performance in terms of increasing the efficiency of the model compared to evolutionary neural network modeling. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model was effectively used to predict the optimal dam inflow. An important strength of this method is its reasoning ability (if-then rules) for any particular state when compared to artificial neural network. Data rainfall in a tropical area of Makassar, Indonesia in 1997-2004 is highly nonlinear that is primarily due to uncertainly of climate rainfall events and a wide range in values of rainfall depth. A robust method is required to analyze the complex data as attempt to utilize the advantages of the neuro-fuzzy system in classifying dialing rainfall data. This approach is approximate complicated nonlinear functions using simple models. The rainfall data was classified by adapting to the dry and wet seasons of rainfall over the study area with the categories a small and large rainfall depth, respectively. The pruning methods for the rule base were further implemented to improve the classification model to ensure that it yields acceptable performance and interpretability.

2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Datasets This research uses the data observed by ORG of Makassar Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG). The sample involves the area at 5000 15S, 119018 32E, with elevations of 0 25 m above sea level and a temperature range of 20 320 C. Those data then be compiled and constructed into neuro-fuzzy algorithm in form of 2 matrices. The first is 366x8-matrix while the second is 248x12-matrix. The rows represent days while the columns represent years and months respectively. 2.2. Neuro-fuzzy Classification Neuro-fuzzy classification (NEFCLASS) model is a special type of neuro-fuzzy system used to derive fuzzy rule from a set of data. The algorithm of NEFCLASS maps the input vector X into the output classes. The classification model divides the processing into 3-layer feed forward. The first layer represents input variables; the second layer represents fuzzy rules, while the third layer represents output variables which are connected with a certain function defined. 2.3. Analysis Procedures There are four steps of the procedure applied in this research, are: data initialization (clustering data then converting it into the neuro-fuzzy algorithm), creating fuzzy system from the initial data clusters (constructing fuzzy classification rules), pruning (modification to enhance model performance), evaluating performance (using cross-validation, we divide the data into some parts which represents the distribution pattern of the data partition). Pruning is not absolutely needed for this model; it is mainly to improve accuracy and interpretability of the data. There are 3 main steps of pruning, are: deleting inputs, deleting rules, and deleting fuzzy sets which are meaningless for drawing conclusion.

3. Result The first dataset analysis was conducted to produce a classification model of daily rainfall for a year (366 days). The FCM clustering is used to extract the rainfall data into two clusters, the first with 265 days and the second cluster with 101 days and both clusters were analyzed using the neuro-fuzzy algorithm. A set rule base of the classification model was obtained from the neuro-fuzzy condition. There are 10 rules, 8 input variables, and 3 fuzzy sets. The membership function of fuzzy set was used t partition each input variable into three categories (small, medium, and large). The model produced misclassification for 65 day, with an error estimate of 16.983.99%. The model performance needs to be enhanced to improve interpretation by using the pruning strategies for the rule base. Starting from the 10 established rules, we modified the model concerned with the deletion of input variables, rules, and fuzzy sets that have a low correlation with the output of each class. The model can be further improved by deleting the rules of R2, R4, and R5, because show poor performance. In this case, if pruning resulted in new inconsistencies and the new rule base is not desirable, the pruning step can be cancelled and we can try different strategies to improve the rule base (Nauck and Kruse, 1997). The further effort to modified performance, we removed the rules with low performance and a fuzzy set of medium. With deletion of and , the number

of rules at four was increase but the number of misclassification day was reduced to only 17. Moreover, by using confidence interval we found the smallest error estimate 5.472.58% which indicates that the set of the rule base gave a good performance as a data classification model. The four rules of the obtained classification model can be interpreted as follows: if if if is small and is small and is large and is small and is large and is small and is small, then cluster I is small, then cluster II is small, then cluster II

if Where

is small and , , and

is small and

is large, then cluster II

are the input variables that represent the year 1990,

2001, 2003, respectively. The small and large terms can be measured using the membership functions of the fuzzy sets. The next description is about the second dataset analysis in order to set a classification model of rainfall pattern during 8 years based on selected monthly input variables. Cluster I with 168 days, while cluster II with 80 days. The first training used a set rule base consist of 15 rules, 12 input variables, and 2 fuzzy sets. The model produced 57 days of misclassification and an error estimate of 21.783.61%. We modified the model with remove the superfluous variables that have weak contributions as classifier. From 12 input variables, only and

that have correlations with the output of each class of more than the absolute 0.5. The set of rule base of the model become a simpler rule base of three rules, two input variables, and two fuzzy sets. The three new rules can be interpreted as follows: if if if Where is small and is large and is small and and is small, then Group I is small, then Group II is large, then Group II

represent the months of January and February, respectively.

4. Discussions The results show that classifying the two given datasets using the neuro-fuzzy system is easy to implement and produces a classification model based on the fuzzy classification. Evaluating the pruning strategies and assess inconsistencies uses the reliability of the model the validation method. The depth of daily rainfall (annually) according to the selected input variables obtained from the classification model. Then the rate of daily rainfall for 265 days was interpreted using the following rule: if v3 is small, v5 is small, and v7 is small, and then cluster I. It indicates that all days recorded similar depths of rainfall, in small category. The daily rainfall dept far 101 days was simultaneously interpreted

using the following rules: (i) R3: if v3 is small, v5 is large, and v7 is small, then Cluster II, (ii) R5: if v3 is large, v5 is small, and v7 is small, then Cluster II, and (iii) R6: if v3 is small, v5 is small, and v7 is large, then cluster II. We can see any extreme rainfall events occurred in 1999 and 2001 but few occurred in 2003. It indicates to the lack of coherence pattern of inter-annual rainfall occurrences in Indonesia right now. It is caused by the ENSO events in the tropics have an effect on rainfall patterns, especially during the dry season and transitional periods. The daily rainfall depth (monthly) according to the selected input variables obtained from the classification model. An important of this result is that the input variables that generated the models were the months of January and February representing the peak of the rainfall season over the study area. In cluster I, variation in daily rainfall was interpreted by using rules: (i) if v1 is small and v2 is small, then group 1. It shows that the rate of daily rainfall in this cluster lies in the small category; with the upper limit of rainfall values is app.39.1 mm. In cluster II, extreme variation occurred in January (37.6 to 188 mm) and February (39.1 to 391 mm). The two rules of: (i) R2 if v1 is large and v2 is small, then group II, and (ii) R3: if v1 is small and v2 is large then group II. The implication of these results is that January- February rainfall very wide range in values of rainfall depth. The relevant finding a research demonstrated that the wet season rainfall of December -January in Indonesia is inherently unpredictable. 5. Conclusion To assess the variations of daily rainfall data can apply the neuro-fuzzy classification model. The use of pruning methods in modifying the rule base produced a simplified classification model that enabled a ready interpretation of variations in daily rainfall. However, the proposed method cant provide an exact solution to the problem.

GROUP TASK TUTORIAL PROGRAM

SUMMARY OF

ASSESSING DAILY TROPICAL RAINFALL VARIATIONS USING A NEURO-FUZZY CLASSIFICATION MODEL

GROUP VII
HESTI ERVIANA RAHMAT HS MIFTAH SARI ANDI HARPENI DEWANTARA MUHAMMAD HUSNUL KHULUQ ANDI RESKI ANGGRAINI ICP 08 MATHEMATICS DEPARTMENT FACULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MAKASSAR 2010 081104166 081104170 081104171 081104174 081104175 081104176