CHAPTER - 1

INTRODUCTION

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1.1: INTRODUCTION:

The pandemic namely corona virus is rapidly out breaking from its primary source i.e. from the

city of Wuhan, situated in China to the entire world, this disease is a serious outbreak to the rest

of the countries, resulting in damaging effect to the human body. This article gives broad

spectrum of view for the pandemic disease. Firstly, in the month of December 2019, many

patients of unspecified etiology of pneumonia which all had a history of visit to seafood

wholesale market in Wuhan, China were come across.

The first case of COVID-19 in India were reported on 30 January 2020 in three towns of Kerala,

among three Indian medical students who had returned from Wuhan, the epicenter of the

pandemic. Lockdowns were announced in Kerala on 23 March, and in the rest of the country on

25 March. Infection rates started to drop in September. Daily cases peaked mid-September with

over 90,000 cases reported per-day, dropping to below 15,000 in January 2021.A second wave

beginning in March 2021 was much more devastating than the first, with shortages of vaccines,

hospital beds, oxygen cylinders and other medical supplies in parts of the country. By late April,

India led the world in new and active cases. On 30 April 2021, it became the first country to

report over 400,000 new cases in a 24-hour period. Experts stated that the virus may reach an

endemic stage in India rather than completely disappear in late August 2021, Soumya

Swaminathan said India may be in some stage of endemicity where the country learns to live

with the virus. By 23 December 2021, India had 78,190 active cases which was lowest in 573

days This number fell to 21,530 in March 2022.

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The virus causing COVID-19 has been named by international committee on taxonomy of

viruses as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-COV-2) in month of

February 11, 2020. The virus causing this pandemic disease is termed as COVID-19 by the

world health organization on 11thFebruary 2020.

Recently, Corona virus has become a critical condition of international concern of public health,

WHO stated its danger to the extreme highest level. This virus has damaging effects over various

human organs like lungs, can disrupt cardiac function by affecting the heart, may lead to renal

problem by affecting the kidneys, hepatic dysfunction, and affect genital organs of the human

body.

Most people who fall sick with COVID-19 will experience mild to moderate symptoms and

recover without special treatment.

Common symptoms:

Fever, Tiredness, Dry Cough.

Some people may experience:

Aches and Pains, Nasal congestion, Runny nose, Sore throat. On average it takes 5–6 days from

when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however, it can take up to 14

days.

Older people and people with certain health conditions have a higher risk for severe

complications if they contract the virus. These health conditions include,lung conditions, such as

COPD and asthma, certain heart conditions, immune system conditions and other health

conditions, if not well-controlled, such as diabetes, kidney disease, or liver disease.

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Going through the literature the patients, who all were tested positive for COVID-19, ultimately

lead towards acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS) in 67.3% of cases, acute kidney injury

in 28.9% of cases, disrupted hepatic function in 28.9% of cases and cardiac injury in 23.1% of

cases and on the 28th day mortality rate was 61.5%, , The process of naming the novel

coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, has created

some controversies.

In this review, the WHO convention of referring to the disease condition as novel coronavirus

disease (COVID-19) has been followed. The virus will be referred to as SARS-related CoV-2, or

SARS-CoV-28. COVID-19 has been labeled as a public health emergency of international

concern (PHEIC), and the epidemic curves are still on the rise.

In order to prevent the spread of virus Indian government had announced a nation-wide

lockdown of 21 days from the midnight of 24th March 2020 and subsequent series of lockdowns

of 19 days and 15 days. The 4th phase of lockdown was started from 18th May 2020.

1.2: NEED OF THE STUDY:

 It gives information about how much infectious the virus is.

 It gives information about the symptoms appear for the affected people.

 The analysis helps to give the data that how many people are infected with the virus.

 The investigation provides the fatality rates and recovery rates of different states

affected by the virus.

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1.3: OBJECTIVES:

 To investigate about Covid-19 outbreak in India.

 State wise evaluation of RR (recovery rate), CFR (case fatality rate).

 Analyzing the Covid-19 spread using regression.

1.4: HYPOTHESIS:

H01: the likelihood of detecting cases and deaths is consistent over the course of outbreak.

H02: the likelihood of detecting cases and deaths is not consistent over the course of outbreak.

H1: all detected cases have resolved. (Reported cases have either recovered or died).

1.5: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

Research methodology is the specific procedures or techniques used to identify, select, process,

and analyze information about a topic. In a research paper, the methodology section allows the

reader to critically evaluate a study’s overall validity and reliability.

1.5.1: SCOPE:

The scope of the study is limited to different states of India. It explains about the effects Covid-

19 in different states of India. It gives information about the percentage of people who are

infected by the virus.

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1.5.2: SAMPLING PROCESS:

Sampling is a process used in statistical analysis in which a predetermined number of

observations are taken from a larger population.

The sampling process is done using simple random sampling and cluster sampling.

Sample size can be determined as

N
n¿ _____ (1)
1+ N ⅇ 2

where,

n = sample size.

N = population size.

e = acceptable sampling error.

Calculating the case fatality rate,

¿
CFR =number of deaths¿ disease number of confirmed cases of disease *100 ______

(2)

Calculating recovery rate,

number of people recovered

RR = *100 _______ (3)
number of confirmed cases of disease

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1.5.3: REGRESSION ANALYSIS:

Linear regression equation:

Y= a + bX +E ______ (4)

Where,

X is the independent variable (number of cases confirmed).

Y is the dependent variable (number of deaths).

b is the slope of the line.

a is the point of interception.

E is the random error term.

To find the slope(b) of the line

b=r ( sysx )
To find the Y- intercept (a)

a =Y – bX

To evaluate coefficient of determination,

RSS
R² = 1 - _____ (5)
TSS

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R² = coefficient of determination.

RSS = sum of squares of residuals.

TSS = total sum of squares.

1.5.4: SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

The data collected is secondary data. The epidemiological data of COVID-19 cases was

collected from official website of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

(https://www.mohfw.gov.in). the data of population is collected from official website of

Government of India (www.indiacensus.net). The data is collected to analyse the outbreak of

Covid-19 in India.

1.5.5: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS:

In the study we have used descriptive analytics to perform data analysis upon large and raw

datasets. The findings of the study is visualized into lines, graphs, tables, pie and bar charts and

generated narratives. To perform this analysis we have used statistical tools MS-EXCEL and

R STUDIO.

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