Global Economic Forecasts - Euromonitor International

Global Economic
Forecasts
Q1 2020
Not to be distributed without permission.
The data included in this document is accurate according

to Passport, Euromonitor International’s market research
database, at time of forecast closing date: February 3rd 2020
introduction
Euromonitor International Analytics offers precise the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
answers to vital business questions in an increasingly for the global economy. Ultimately, we help
fast-paced and uncertain world. Our Macro Model businesses stay ahead of risks and opportunities
provides regularly updated forecasts and “what-if ” as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.
scenarios for core macroeconomic variables, including
gdp, growth and unemployment. Its global scope Our baseline global gdp growth forecast has remained
ensures our macro forecasts and scenarios reflect the stable since q4 2019 at around 3% in 2020 (similar to
economically inter-connected world in which we live. 2019), improving slightly to 3.2% growth in 2021. This
reflects offsetting effects of improvements in the US
The Global Economic Forecasts report focuses and Japan outlooks, countered by a worsening outlook
on quarterly macro changes for the world’s key for the Eurozone and India.
economies and what these mean to our view of
© 2020 Euromonitor International 1

Positive factors in the outlook remain above Global Real gdp Growth Baseline Forecast
average, this includes consumer confidence in key
economies, supportive monetary policy and low
World 3.0
financial system stress. Negative factors in the 2014–2018 average
2019
outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war 2020
Advanced 1.4 2021
risks, declining business confidence, high corporate 2022
Economies
debt levels in key economies, as well as the recent
Developing
uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak. 4.2
and Emerging
Economies
The January 2020 US-China phase one trade deal 1.7
US
has eased the risks and uncertainty surrounding
a trade-war escalation since the end of 2019. On
Eurozone 1.1
the other hand, the recent coronavirus outbreak
in China may easily cut 0.1–0.3% off our 2020
5.8
global gdp growth forecast once more precise data China
about its impact in q1 is available. As the outbreak

%
spreads more significantly on a global scale, risks
of a downturn in consumer spending, reduction in Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
business investment and production will need to

be addressed.

gdp growth forecasts & revisions from last quarter GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
2020 2021
2023–2027 FORECAST FORECAST
COUNTRY / REGION 2019 % 2020 % 2021 % 2022 % AVERAGE REVISION % REVISION %
(F) % Percentage Percentage
points points
Advanced Economies 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0
USA 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1
Canada 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Eurozone 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 -0.2 -0.1
Germany 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 -0.3 -0.1
France 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 -0.1 0.0
Italy 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Spain 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 -0.5 -0.2
UK 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.1
Japan 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
South Korea 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 -0.2 -0.1

gdp growth forecasts & revisions from last quarter GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

2020 2021
2023–2027 FORECAST FORECAST
COUNTRY / REGION 2019 % 2020 % 2021 % 2022 % AVERAGE REVISION % REVISION %
(F) % Percentage Percentage
points points
Emerging and Developing Economies 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 -0.2 0.0
China 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.9 0.1 0.0
India 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.1 -0.8 -0.5
Indonesia 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.0 0.0
Brazil 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.2
Mexico 0.0 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 -0.3 -0.2
Russia 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.1
Turkey 0.0 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.1

inflation forecasts GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2023–2027
COUNTRY / REGION 2019 % 2020 % 2021 % 2022 % AVERAGE
(F) %
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
USA 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Eurozone 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7
Germany 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8
UK 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0
Japan 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
Emerging and Developing Economies 2.7 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.2
China 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.5
India 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4
Brazil 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8
Russia 4.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Note: Orange color indicates inflation below long-term 2023–2027 target. Blue color indicates inflation above long-term 2023–2037 target.

central bank interest rate forecasts GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Advanced Economies Interest Rate Forecast Developing and Emerging Countries Interest Rate Forecast
% %
3 8
7
2 6
1.7 5
5.2
US
1 4
Eurozone 4.2
3 India
0.0
0 2 China
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-1 0
% %
3 16
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 14 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2 UK 12
Japan Brazil
10 Russia
1 0.8 8 6.6
0 4 5.1
-0.1
2
-1 0
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model

the us GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
INDICATOR 2019 % 2020 % 2021 % 2022 % REVISION % REVISION %
AVERAGE (F) %
Percentage Percentage
points points
Real gdp Growth 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1
Inflation 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.1 0.0
Federal Funds Rate 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.4 0.0 0.0
General outlook consumer spending growth. Manufacturing and business investment

The US economy has continued to grow at a suffered from slower global trade growth and significant uncertainty
faster rate than its long-term trend in 2019, related to the risks of a US-China trade war escalation. gdp growth is
mainly supported by robust employment and expected at 1.4–2% in 2020, followed by 1.2–2% growth in 2021.

the us GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Positive factors in the outlook include above

average private sector confidence and strong
disposable income growth which should
continue to sustain consumption growth in
2020. The signing of a phase one US-China
trade deal in January 2020, has reduced trade
related uncertainty.
Negative factors include ongoing risks of trade

tensions with China or the EU, the negative
effects of population ageing on the growth of
the labour force, and slow labour productivity
growth. The last two factors contribute to a
low long-term potential output growth rate
of 1.1-2.1%.
New York City, USA

china GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp Growth 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.9 0.1 0.0
Inflation 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.1
Central Bank Policy Rate 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 -0.1 -0.1
General outlook Towards the end of December, China’s government announced further measures
China’s economy got a boost in January 2020 from to boost private sector firms (now accounting for 60% of Chinese gdp), including
the signing of a phase one trade deal with the US, the opening of some finance, telecoms, transport and energy sectors to private
avoiding planned tariff increases and avoiding investment and easier access to bonds and equity financing.
any further trade war escalation, for now. This
came against a background of an ongoing, mostly The government has also encouraged a loosening of credit standards for small and
domestically driven, slowdown in growth towards medium enterprises, with a targeted 30% lending increase.
5–6%. gdp growth for 2020 is expected to reach
5.3–6.1%, followed by 5.1-6% growth in 2021.

china GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
The coronavirus outbreak in January 2020 China Real GDP Growth Forecast
%
complicates the picture, making it more likely 8
for 2020 gdp growth to fall within the lower end 2019 2020 2021 2022
7
of the range above, closer to 5%. A spread of the
virus to other major cities beyond Wuhan could 6
significantly dampen spending on consumer
5
services on things like entertainment and
restaurants, as well as cutting tourism and 4
travel spending.
3
Euromonitor baseline
Uncertainty around the baseline outlook has also 2 Optimistic scenario
increased and is more skewed to the downside Pessimistic scenario
1 Major Downturn
due to the coronavirus outbreak.
0
Purchases from physical stores are likely to be Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
substituted by online purchases, which would Finally, any signs of a potentially significant decline in China’s 2020 gdp growth are
stabalise the coronavirus' effect on retail sales. likely to trigger new government fiscal and credit stimulus measures.
Consumers are also likely to spend more on
durable consumer goods and travel later during Nevertheless, Chinese retail sales volume annual growth rate could decline in
the year, rather than going on holidays now. the first quarter of 2020 from 5–6% to around 2–3%.

india GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp Growth 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.1 -0.7 -0.4
Inflation 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 -0.1 -0.1
Central Bank Rate 5.7 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2 -0.2 -0.5
General outlook While economic growth is predicted to accelerate, this will

India’s economic growth slowed slightly in q3 be at a lower rate than previously forecast. It was previously
2019, to 4.7%, but is expected to recover in the projected that gdp would grow by 6.5% in 2020, which has been
first quarters of 2020. Real annual gdp growth reduced by 0.7 percentage points from q4 2019 forecasts. These
is predicted to accelerate to reach 5.8% in 2020 projections reflect lower consumption and investment growth
and will keep on increasing to 6.4% in 2021. than previously expected.

india GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
The budget proposals for 2020 indicate

that the Indian government will concentrate
on supporting economic growth rather than
maintaining fiscal discipline. The new budget
raises the budget deficit from 3.3% to 3.8%.
In contrast to other contributors to gdp

during the last three quarters of 2019, exports
decreased by on average 1.6% each quarter, due
to lower demand, which was affected by trade
issues. Government negotiations concerning
a free trade deal with the US might, however,
restore export growth in q1 2020.
Mumbai City, India

japan GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp Growth 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
Inflation 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 -0.2 -0.3
BoJ Policy Rate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
General outlook We expect the stimulus package to give significant support to Japan's
We upgraded our Japanese real gdp growth economy, which has so far been constrained by the negative impact of
forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2020 and the recent sales tax increase and a weak external environment.
by 0.1 percentage points for 2021. The change in
forecast is driven by the announcement of a 120 Coronavirus will likely significantly dampen Japanese exports in q1
billion USD fiscal stimulus package from PM Abe 2020 as China is the second-largest trading partner of Japan. However,
which will be implemented until March 2021. the effects should be temporary and only last in the first half of 2020.

japan GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Inflation is set to rise to 1% in 2020 and

hover around similar levels in the medium
term — remaining well-below the 2% target
of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The sales tax
will help increase the inflation rate from the
previous year’s level. However, low inflation
expectations continue to dampen any
progress achieved by the BoJ.
Later in the forecast period, we expect fiscal

stimulus effects to die out, which led us
to slightly downgrading the forecasts for
2022 and 2023. In the medium term, lack of
productivity growth and continued ageing
of the country will continue to hinder the
economic growth, even if these issues can
be temporarily masked with fiscal stimulus.
Mount Fuji, Japan

the eurozone GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp growth 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 -0.2 -0.1
Inflation 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 -0.2 -0.2
ecb Refinancing Rate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.0
General outlook Annual employment grew by around 1%, and reduced the
q4 2019 gdp year-on-year growth for the unemployment rate to 7.4% — the lowest level since May 2008.
Eurozone was just 1%, with an overall 2019 However, this has been countered by low labour productivity
growth of 1.2%. Consumer spending and the growth which is barely above zero.
service sector have continued to support the
economy, while business investment, exports
and manufacturing have constrained growth.

the eurozone GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
gdp growth is expected to decline to 0.8–1.3%

in 2020, improving slightly to 0.8–1.6% growth
in 2021. Domestic demand is expected to grow
slightly faster than gdp in 2020, with lower net
exports reducing overall gdp growth.
Employment growth is expected to decline

towards around 0.5% annually over 2020–2022,
compensated by labour productivity growth
rising towards 1%. Long term annual output
growth in the 2020s is expected to remain at
0.7–1.6%, due to an ageing population and slow
labour productivity growth.
Madrid, Spain

the uk GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp growth 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -0.1 -0.1
Inflation 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 -0.2 -0.1
Bank Rate 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.8 0.0 -0.2
General outlook Free Trade Agreement (fta) in the transitory period running until
We have revised down our 2020 UK real gdp the end of 2020.
growth forecast by -0.1 percentage points to 1.1%.
Even though the UK is technically out of the EU PM Johnson passed a bill to prohibit the UK government from
and its governing institutions, the Brexit saga asking for an extension to the transitory period, setting the
and uncertainty will continue throughout 2020 country on a binary path: signing an fta by the end of the year or
as the UK and the EU must negotiate a future crashing out of the EU single market without a deal and abiding by
the World Trade Organisation’s rules.

the uk GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
The labour market continues to remain strong

and support gdp growth amid mounting political
uncertainty. Although wage growth is currently
higher than productivity growth, this cannot be
sustained for long. This inevitably raises doubt
around how viable current growth is, which is
supported by private consumption.
Inflation hovers below the Bank of England's

target level of 2%. However, the situation is
expected to improve if some of the Brexit-related
political uncertainty gets resolved. In the most
recent January Monetary Policy Committee
(mpc) meeting, the governing board of the
Bank of England decided to keep interest rates
unchanged even amid disinflationary pressures
and slowing economic growth.
London, England

russia GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Russia Real GDP Growth by Expenditure Component

%
General outlook 8
Stocks Net exports
According to Rosstat estimates, annual gdp 6 Investment Consumption
Real GDP growth
rose by 1.3% in 2019, following a 2.2% increase
4
in 2018. The growth rates shown are higher than 1.6
expected in our previous reports, due primarily
2
to more favourable gdp dynamics in q3 and q4,
based on a revival in inventories in comparison 0
with the previous quarters.
-2
In terms of gdp structure by expenditure

-4
components, growth in 2019 was constrained
2017 2018 2019
mainly by a reduction of exports amid a slowdown -6
in the global economy and an agreement by opec+ Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
to cut oil production, and slower investment

growth, caused by the delayed implementation
of several national infrastructure projects planned
by the government.

russia GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Amid the slowdown in investment, support

for economic growth in 2019 was provided by
private consumption, which is also expected
to help the economy in 2020, given improving
household income dynamics, which includes
growth in real wages.
In our baseline, we expect a minor acceleration

in real gdp annual growth to around 1.6–1.7%
over 2020–2021. This acceleration will depend,
to a significant extent, on growth in public
spending, related to the implementation of
national infrastructure projects.
Moscow, Russia

brazil GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
2020 2021
FORECAST FORECAST
2023–2027
AVERAGE (F) %
points points
Real gdp growth 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.2
Inflation 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 -0.3 -0.2
Interest Rate 6.0 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.6 -0.8 -1.0
General outlook Inflation is still low and is expected to remain well below the Central
Favourable market conditions and monetary policy Bank's target of 4.25%. This is stimulating private consumption, which
measures have resulted in a moderately positive is one of the main drivers of gdp growth, as consumers are more
economic outlook for Brazil. willing to spend both from savings and through borrowing.

brazil GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Brazil's Central Bank is still maintaining

unprecedented stimulus policies and is
maintaining its all-time low interest rates. This
is expected to increase business investment and
boost industrial output. Also, low interest rates
may raise consumer spending on durable goods.
With gradual economic recovery, owing

largely to a combination of low inflation and
low interest rates, real gdp growth forecasts
have been upgraded. We expect real gdp to
grow by 2.1% in 2020 and by 2.3% in 2021.
São Paulo, Brazil

global risk scenarios GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Increasing probability Decreasing probability Unchanged probability
Summary Probability, %
30
The recent phase one US-China trade deal 27

implies a significant reduction in the probability No-Deal Brexit
of the All-Out US-China War Scenario, though 24
US-China All-Out Trade War
risks of re-escalating trade tensions remain.
21
Emerging Markets
The coronavirus outbreak early in 2020 and the Slowdown
18
risks of a more prolonged impact on China and
Global Downturn
the global economy have caused an increase 15
in the probabilities assigned to the Global Disorderly
No-Deal 12
Downturn, Emerging Markets Slowdown, China Brexit
China Hard Landing
Hard Landing and Global Crisis Scenarios,
9
despite the lower US-China trade tensions. Eurozone Recession
Global Trade War 6

The UK exited the EU in January 2020 and is Global Crisis
currently going through a transition period. Eurozone Debt Crisis Trump Adverse 3
Policies
However, the strong election victory of the
0
pro-Hard Brexit Conservatives has raised the -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
probability of a No-Deal Brexit at the end of the GDP Impact, % *
transition, in q1 2021. Source: Euromonitor International
* Impact is measured as world gdp change over 3 years compared to baseline scenario, in percentage points

global risk index scores and rankings GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
GLOBAL GLOBAL
Euromonitor International SCENARIO RISK INDEX GDP IMPACT % PROBABILITY %
Global Risk Index, Global Downturn 2.7 4.9 16.3
February 2020 Emerging Markets Slowdown 1.6 2.8 17.3
Euromonitor International's Global Risk Index Global Crisis 1.4 10.4 4.0
provides a convenient summary of the impact China Hard Landing 0.8 2.3 10.8
and likelihood of different negative global Eurozone Recession 0.6 2.3 8.3
scenarios. This allows you to rank major risks
US-China All-Out Trade War 0.5 0.6 23.25
to the global economy and prioritise those that
are more significant for business and financial Disorderly No-Deal Brexit 0.4 1.2 10.0
stress-testing. Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model

Note: Global Risk Index ranks scenarios by the expected global gdp impact,
calculated as the 3-year cumulative global real gdp impact of the scenario multiplied by its 1-year
probability, relative to the average global downside risks occurrence probability. The Index is
based on 58 world’s major economies (representing 90% of global gdp at ppp).

about euromonitor
international
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company providing statistics, analysis and reports, dashboard that places the client in the driver’s
as well as breaking news on industries, economies seat. The Macro Model can help your business
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Companies around the world rely on Euromonitor order to support critical decision-making.
International to develop and expand business
opportunities, answer complex questions and For more detailed analysis around the economic
influence strategic decision-making. forecasts by country for this quarter, purchase the
full Global Economic Forecasts Report or Request
a live demonstration to learn more about the power
of Passport.

contact details GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
Contact us at analytics@euromonitor.com
Aiste Navaityte Aleksej Baksajev, PhD Daniel Solomon, PhD Giedrius Stalenis Marija Aciene
Senior Data Analyst, Data Scientist, Analytics Senior Economist, Consultant, Economy, Senior Data Analyst,
Economies and Economies and Finance and Trade Economies and
Consumers Consumers Consumers
Connect via LinkedIn Connect via LinkedIn Connect via LinkedIn Connect via LinkedIn Connect via LinkedIn

global risk scenario descriptions GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
SCENARIO DESCRIPTION
Fears of escalating protectionist and populist policies and growing geopolitical tensions raise uncertainty levels
Global Downturn
and worsen sentiment in global financial markets and the private sector.
Emerging Markets Rising financial markets risk aversion focused on emerging markets (em). Greater pessimism about long-term em
Slowdown growth. Greater protectionism and slower growth in global trade.
The global crisis scenario combines a severe global downturn with a Chinese hard landing and a Eurozone
Global Crisis
recession.
Growing geopolitical and EU break-up risks raise uncertainty and reduce investment. Significant deterioration in
Eurozone Recession
Eurozone credit markets and confidence indicators. Italy and Greece exit the Eurozone.
Lower private sector confidence, declining exports, a rising proportion of non-performing loans and greater than
China Hard Landing
expected costs of rebalancing from investment to consumption cause a sharp downturn in China’s economy.
The US raises tariffs on all Chinese imports by 15–25 percentage points. China retaliates with similar tariff
US-China Trade War
increases.
No-Deal Brexit UK-EU negotiations break down, and the UK leaves the EU in 2019 without making a trade deal.
Disorderly No-Deal Brexit This is a worst-case No-Deal Brexit scenario. Trade sensitivity and disruptions are more severe and long lasting.
Growing geopolitical and EU break-up risks raise uncertainty and reduce investment. Tensions in sovereign debt
Eurozone Crisis
markets cause turmoil in financial markets. Collapse in private sector confidence. Italy and Greece exit the Eurozone.
Nuclear fears lead to a US strike on North Korea. North Korea invades South Korea and strikes Japan. Fears of
Korean Conflict
strikes on the US or other Asian countries lead to a sell-off in financial markets and a slowdown.
US-China Trade War tariff increases and bilateral tariff increases between the US, Asia Pacific, the EU, Canada
Global Trade War
and Mexico.

notes GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2020
For further insight, do not hesitate to contact
Definitions us at analytics@euromonitor.com
» Forecast closing date: February 3, 2020
» All baseline forecasts (expected or most likely outcomes) are

assigned a 20–30% probability unless stated otherwise.
» All most likely Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios are assigned

a probability of 15–25% unless stated otherwise.
» All gdp and gdp components growth rates are in real (inflation
adjusted) terms unless stated otherwise.
» All annual gdp and gdp component growth rates are for January–
December calendar year unless stated otherwise.
» All quarterly gdp and gdp components growth rates are year-on-
year unless stated otherwise.

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Global Economic

The data included in this document is accurate according

© 2020 Euromonitor International 1

about its impact in q1 is available. As the outbreak

business investment and production will need to

© 2020 Euromonitor International 2

Advanced Economies 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0

USA 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1

Canada 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.0

Eurozone 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 -0.2 -0.1

Germany 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 -0.3 -0.1

France 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 -0.1 0.0

Italy 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0

Spain 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 -0.5 -0.2

UK 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.1

Japan 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1

South Korea 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 -0.2 -0.1

© 2020 Euromonitor International 3

EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

China 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.9 0.1 0.0

India 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.4 6.1 -0.8 -0.5

Indonesia 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.0 0.0

Brazil 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.2

Mexico 0.0 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 -0.3 -0.2

Russia 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.1

Turkey 0.0 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.1

© 2020 Euromonitor International 4

Advanced Economies 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

USA 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0

Eurozone 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7

Germany 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8

UK 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0

Japan 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0

Emerging and Developing Economies 2.7 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.2

China 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.5

India 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4

Brazil 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8

Russia 4.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8

© 2020 Euromonitor International 5

© 2020 Euromonitor International 6

Inflation 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.1 0.0

General outlook consumer spending growth. Manufacturing and business investment

© 2020 Euromonitor International 7

​Positive factors in the outlook include above

Negative factors include ongoing risks of trade

New York City, USA

© 2020 Euromonitor International 8

Inflation 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.1

© 2020 Euromonitor International 9

© 2020 Euromonitor International 10

Inflation 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 -0.1 -0.1

General outlook While economic growth is predicted to accelerate, this will

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The budget proposals for 2020 indicate

In contrast to other contributors to gdp

Mumbai City, India

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Inflation 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 -0.2 -0.3

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Inflation is set to rise to 1% in 2020 and

Later in the forecast period, we expect fiscal

Mount Fuji, Japan

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Positive factors in the outlook include above