IE6200 Homework #1 Solutions .

1. A coin is tossed 4 times. We use H to denote heads and T to denote tails. For instance, HT HH means we
got the sequence heads, tails, heads, heads.
(a) Write down the elements of the sample space.
Hint: Using a tree diagram can be helpful.
Solution:
S={HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT,
THHH, THHT, THTH, THTT, TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}

(b) List the outcomes included in each of the following events. Also compute the probabilities for each event.
Assume that the coin is fair.
• Event A : Number of times the coin came up heads is 0.
• Event B : Number of times the coin came up heads is 1.
• Event C : The first two tosses came up heads.
• Event D : Number of times the coin came up heads is greater than 1.
Solution:

1
A = {TTTT}, ⇒ P (A) = .
6
4 1
B = {HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH}, ⇒ P (B) =
= .
16 4
4 1
C = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT}, ⇒ P (B) = = .
16 4
D = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, THHH, THHT, THTH, TTHH},
11
⇒ P (D) = .
16
(c) Answer YES or NO to the following questions:
• Are the events A and B mutually exclusive?
• Are the events B and C mutually exclusive?
• Are the events C and D mutually exclusive?
(d) Compute the probability P (A ∪ D).
Solution:
P (A ∪ D) = P (A) + P (D) − P (A ∩ D), A ∩ D = φ ⇒ P (A ∩ D) = 0
1 11 3
= + −0= .
16 16 4
(e) Compute the probability P (C ∪ D).
Solution:
P (C ∪ D) = P (C) + P (D) − P (C ∩ D), C ∩D =C ⇒ P (C ∩ D) = P (C)
1 11 1 11
= + − = .
4 16 4 16
2. You are given the sample space S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} and the events X = even numbers, Y = numbers
greater than or equal to 6, Z = {2, 4}. You are told that P (0) = P (2) = P (4) = P (6) = P (8) and
P (1) = P (3) = P (5) = P (7). Furthermore, you are told that odd numbered outcomes are twice as likely as
the even numbered outcomes.

(a) Draw the Venn diagram showing the sample space S and events X, Y, Z.
Note: The areas of the events in a Venn diagram don’t have to be proportional to their probabilities,
but you should correctly show the relationship of the events. For instance, if two events are mutually
exclusive, they should not intersect in the Venn diagram.
Solution:

(b) List the elements of the each of the following and compute their probability.
Let x be the probability of the even outcomes, then the probability for the odd outcomes is 2x. There
1
are 5 even and 4 odd outcomes, so 5x + 4(2x) = 1 ⇒ x = 13 , so

1
P (0) = P (2) = P (4) = P (6) = P (8) =
13
2
P (1) = P (3) = P (5) = P (7) =
13
• Z ∪Y
4 2 6
Solution: Z ∪ Y = {2, 4, 6, 7, 8} ⇒ P (Z ∪ Y ) = 13 + 13 = 13 .
• X ∪Y
5 2 7
Solution: X ∪ Y = {0, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8} ⇒ P (X ∪ Y ) = 13 + 13 = 13 .
0
• X ∩Z
Solution: X 0 ∩ Z = {1, 3, 5, 7} ∩ {2, 4} = φ ⇒ P (X 0 ∩ Z) = P (φ) = 0.
• (X ∩ Z)0
Solution: P ((X ∩ Z)0 ) = 1 − P (X ∩ Z) = 1 − P ({2, 4}) = 1 − 13 2
= 11
13
.
• (X ∪ Y ) ∩ Z
2
Solution: P ((X ∪ Y ) ∩ Z) = P ((X ∩ Z) ∪ (Y ∩ Z)) = P ({2, 4} ∪ φ) = P ({2, 4}) = 13
.
• (X ∩ Z) ∪ Y
6
Solution: P ((X ∩ Z) ∪ Y ) = P ({2, 4} ∪ {6, 7, 8}) = P ({2, 4, 6, 7, 8}) = 13 .
3. (Exercise 2.54 from textbook) Suppose that in a senior college class of 500 students it is found that 210
smoke, 258 drink alcoholic beverages, 216 eat between meals, 122 smoke and drink alcoholic beverages, 83
eat between meals and drink alcoholic beverages, 97 smoke and eat between meals and 52 engage in all three
of these bad health practices. If a member of this senior class is selected at random, find the probability that
the student

n(S) = 500
Sm D
43 70 105
52
45 31
88
66
E

(a) smokes but does not drink alcoholic beverages.

Solution: All out comes are equally likely. n(S) = 500. Lets give the events names:
Sm : Smokes, D : Drinks, E : Eats between meal
43 + 45 88
P (Sm ∩ D0 ) = =
500 500
(b) eats between meals and drinks alcoholic beverages but does not smoke.
Solution:
0 31
P ((E ∩ D) ∩ Sm )= .
500
(c) neither smokes nor eats between meals.
Solution:
105 + 66 171
P ((Sm ∪ E)0 ) = = .
500 500
Alternate Solution
n(Sm = 210, n(D) = 258, n(E) = 216, n(Sm ∩D) = 122, n(E∩D) = 83, n(Sm ∩E) = 77, n(Sm ∩D∩E) = 52.

Sm = (Sm ∩ m) ∪ (Sm ∩ D0 ), where the two events Sm ∩ D, and Sm ∩ D0 are disjoint

P (Sm ) = P (Sm ∩ D) + P (Sm ∩ D0 )
210 122
= + P (Sm ∩ D0 )
500 500
210 − 122 88
P (Sm ∩ D0 ) = = .
500 500
0
E ∩ D = (E ∩ D ∩ Sm ) ∪ (E ∩ D ∩ Sm ), where the two events are disjoint
0
P (E ∩ D) = P (E ∩ D ∩ Sm ) + P (E ∩ D ∩ Sm )
83 52
= + P (Sm ∩ D0 )
500 500
0 83 − 52 31
P (E ∩ D ∩ Sm ) = = .
500 500
 0
P (Sm ∩ E 0 ) = P ((Sm ∪ E)0 ) = 1 − P (Sm ∪ E)
329 171
= 1− = , where
500 500
−P (Sm ∪ E) = −P (Sm ) + −P (E) − −P (Sm ∩ E)
210 + 216 − 97 329
= = .
500 500

4. Let S represent the sample space of all houses in zip code 84106. You are also given the events:

• A = Houses built after 1990

• B = Houses with a 2-car garage
• C = Houses with lead-based paint

P (A) = 0.1, P (B) = 0.6, P (C) = 0.6, P (A ∩ C) = 0, P (A ∩ B) = 0.1 and P (B ∩ C) = 0.4.

(a) Compute the probability P (A ∩ B ∩ C). Hint: A ∩ B ∩ C = (A ∩ C) ∩ B

Solution:

A ∩ B ∩ C = (A ∩ C) ∩ B, but we are told that P (A ∩ C) = 0 which means A ∩ C = φ, so (A ∩ C) ∩ B =

φ ∩ B = φ ⇒ P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.
(b) Compute the probability P (A ∪ B ∪ C).
Solution:

P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∪ B) − P (A ∪ C) − P (B ∪ C) + P (A ∪ B ∪ C)

= 0.1 + 0.6 + 0.6 − 0.1 − 0 − 0.4 + 0 = 0.8.

(c) Using rules of probability and the probabilities you’ve been given above, show that it is not possible to
find a house in this zip code built after 1990 that doesn’t have a 2-car garage.
Hint: First write this event as an intersection of two other events or their complements.
Solution:
A house built after 1990 that doesn’t have a 2 car garage ⇒ A ∩ B 0 . Want to show P (A ∩ B 0 ) = 0.

A = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B 0 )
P (A) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ B 0 )
0.1 = 0.1 + P (A ∩ B 0 )
P (A ∩ B 0 ) = 0
5. Let S represent the sample space of all automobiles produced in company X’s manufacturing plant. Lets also
define the following events:

• A = Exterior color black, B = Exterior color silver, C = Automatic transmission,

D = Manual transmission

We are give the following probabilities: P (A) = 0.65 and P (B) = 0.25, P (C) = 0.7 and P (B ∩ C) = 0.09.
You are told that events A and B are mutually exclusive. Similarly, a car can’t have automatic and manual
transmission at the same time so C and D are mutually exclusive as well. Furthermore, you are told that
events C and D form a partition of the sample space.

(a) Draw a Venn diagram to show all the events.

Solution:
(b) Compute the probability P (A ∪ B)?
Solution:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
= 0.65 + 0.25 − 0 = 0.9.

(c) Compute the probability P ((A ∪ B)0 ).

Solution:

P ((A ∪ B)0 ) = 1 − P (A ∪ B)
= 1 = 0.9 = 0.1.

(d) Compute the probability P (B ∩ D).

Solution:

P (B) = 1 − P (A ∩ C) + P (B ∩ D)
0.25 = 0.09 + P (B ∩ D) ⇒ P (B ∩ D) = 0.16

(e) Compute the probability P (D).

Solution: D = C 0 ⇒ P (D) = 1 − P (C) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3.