Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2

1 150,000.00 125,000.00 18,750,000,000.00 22,500,000,000.00

2 131,500.00 129,781.00 17,066,201,500.00 17,292,250,000.00
3 145,600.00 145,600.00 21,199,360,000.00 21,199,360,000.00
4 138,000.00 136,900.00 18,892,200,000.00 19,044,000,000.00
5 144,500.00 142,200.00 20,547,900,000.00 20,880,250,000.00
6 129,967.00 129,050.00 16,772,241,350.00 16,891,421,089.00
7 140,000.00 135,000.00 18,900,000,000.00 19,600,000,000.00
8 125,500.00 123,712.00 15,525,856,000.00 15,750,250,000.00
9 143,000.00 141,500.00 20,234,500,000.00 20,449,000,000.00
10 150,000.00 148,896.00 22,334,400,000.00 22,500,000,000.00
Summation 1,398,067.00 1,357,639.00 190,222,658,850.00 196,106,531,089.00

Determination of Values using MS Excel

m 0.64
b 46,007.72
Sy 8,739.33
Sx 8,481.34
m2 0.41
(Sy) 2
76,375,865.43
(Sx) 2
71,933,048.90
Variance 52,568,398.20
S= STDV 7,250.41

Determination of Values by Calculator

1) To Determine Sx

Session X X-Xaverage {X-Xavg}2

1 150,000.00 10,193.30 103,903,364.89
 2 131,500.00 -8,306.70 69,001,264.89
3 145,600.00 5,793.30 33,562,324.89
4 138,000.00 -1,806.70 3,264,164.89
5 144,500.00 4,693.30 22,027,064.89
6 129,967.00 -9,839.70 96,819,696.09
7 140,000.00 193.30 37,364.89
8 125,500.00 -14,306.70 204,681,664.89
9 143,000.00 3,193.30 10,197,164.89
10 150,000.00 10,193.30 103,903,364.89
∑ 1,398,067.00 647,397,440.10
XAverage 139,806.70
1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111

Sx SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(x-Xavg)2 8,481.34 Sx Value

1) To Determine Sy

Session Y (Y-Yaverage) {Y-Yavg}2

1 125,000.00 -10,763.90 115,861,543.21
2 129,781.00 -5,982.90 35,795,092.41
3 145,600.00 9,836.10 96,748,863.21
4 136,900.00 1,136.10 1,290,723.21
5 142,200.00 6,436.10 41,423,383.21
6 129,050.00 -6,713.90 45,076,453.21
7 135,000.00 -763.90 583,543.21
8 123,712.00 -12,051.90 145,248,293.61
9 141,500.00 5,736.10 32,902,843.21
10 148,896.00 13,132.10 172,452,050.41
∑ 1,357,639.00 687,382,788.90

YAverage 135,763.90
 1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111
Sy SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(Y-Yavg)
2
8,739.33 Sy Value

To Determine "m"

Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2
1 150,000.00 125,000.00 18750000000 22500000000
2 131,500.00 129,781.00 17066201500 17292250000
3 145,600.00 145,600.00 21199360000 21199360000
4 138,000.00 136,900.00 18892200000 19044000000
5 144,500.00 142,200.00 20547900000 20880250000
6 129,967.00 129,050.00 16772241350 16891421089
7 140,000.00 135,000.00 18900000000 19600000000
8 125,500.00 123,712.00 15525856000 15750250000
9 143,000.00 141,500.00 20234500000 20449000000
10 150,000.00 148,896.00 22334400000 22500000000
∑ 1,398,067.00 1,357,639.00 190222658850 196106531089

To Determine "b"

Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2
1 150,000.00 125,000.00 18750000000 22500000000
2 131,500.00 129,781.00 17066201500 17292250000
3 145,600.00 145,600.00 21199360000 21199360000
4 138,000.00 136,900.00 18892200000 19044000000
5 144,500.00 142,200.00 20547900000 20880250000
6 129,967.00 129,050.00 16772241350 16891421089
7 140,000.00 135,000.00 18900000000 19600000000
8 125,500.00 123,712.00 15525856000 15750250000
9 143,000.00 141,500.00 20234500000 20449000000
10 150,000.00 148,896.00 22334400000 22500000000
∑ 1,398,067.00 1,357,639.00 190222658850 196106531089

Determination of Variance and the Standard Deviation

(n-1)/(n-2) (Sy)2 m2*(Sx)2 {(n-1)/(n-2)}*{(Sy)2-m2*(Sx)2}

1.13 76,375,865.43 29648400.3680092 52,568,398.20

7,250.41

Summary of The Tender price Gambling

Bidder's current price (X) Mean value, µ{Y=mX + b}

1,600,000 1,073,210.96
 n*∑X*Y ∑X*∑Y n*∑(x)2 (∑x)2

1902226588500 1898070283813 1,961,065,310,890.00 1,954,591,336,489.00

∑Y*∑X2 ∑(X)*∑X*Y ∑X* ∑Y n*∑X2-( ∑X)2

 266,241,874,761,139,000.00 2.65944021990443E+017 1,898,070,283,813.00 6,473,974,401.00

Remark

This is the Variance

is the Standard Deviation as the

Square root of Variance is the
Standard Deviation

The Tender price Gambling

Proposed Rebate in % to have

a 95% probability of winning
Z=(Yi-µ)/S the Bid
1,061,247.79 33.6720133132274
 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

4,156,304,687.00 6,473,974,401.00 0.642002026816479 m Value

∑Y * ∑X2 - ∑X* ∑Y n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 ∑Y*∑x2 -∑X* ∑X*Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

266,239,976,690,855,000.00 1,891,596,309,412.00 46,007.72 b Value
 Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2
1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652 126651525649936
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629 199487008776169
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612 184036003284169
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136 161199918781209
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000 180418865776081
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000 224357379502096
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370 263548924956100
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104 239255064208384
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546 298779314434756
Summation 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425 2034324790982276

Determination of Values using MS Excel

m 0.92
b 772,824.78
Sy 1,719,559.62
Sx 1,844,855.64 1719405.45867982
m2 0.86
(Sy) 2
2,956,885,299,923.39
(Sx) 2
3,403,492,341,148.71
Variance 52,409,479,343.19
S= STDV 228,931.17

Determination of Values by Calculator

1) To Determine Sx

Session X X-Xaverage {X-Xavg}2

1 11,253,956.00 -2,901,231.60 8,417,144,796,838.56
 2 12,513,624.00
3 14,123,987.00
4 13,565,987.00
5 12,696,453.00 -1,458,734.60
6 13,432,009.00
7 14,978,564.00
8 16,234,190.00
9 15,467,872.00
10 17,285,234.00
∑ 141,551,876.00
XAverage 14,155,187.60
-1,641,563.60 2,694,731,052,844.96
-31,200.60 973,477,440.36
-589,200.60 347,157,347,040.36
2,127,906,633,237.16
-723,178.60 522,987,287,497.96
823,376.40 677,948,696,076.96
2,079,002.40 4,322,250,979,205.76
1,312,684.40 1,723,140,334,003.36
3,130,046.40 9,797,190,466,152.96
30,631,431,070,338.40
1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111

Sx SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(x-Xavg)2 1,844,855.64 Sx Value

1) To Determine Sy

Session Y (Y-Yaverage) {Y-Yavg}2

1 11,120,167.00
2 12,513,624.00
3 14,000,567.00
4 12,905,876.00
5 12,456,912.00
6 13,432,000.00
7 14,567,000.00
8 15,499,623.00
9 15,254,007.00
10 16,873,169.00
∑ 138,622,945.00
-2,742,127.50 7,519,263,226,256.25
-1,348,670.50 1,818,912,117,570.25
138,272.50 19,119,284,256.25
-956,418.50 914,736,347,142.25
-1,405,382.50 1,975,099,971,306.25
-430,294.50 185,153,356,730.25
704,705.50 496,609,841,730.25
1,637,328.50 2,680,844,616,912.25
1,391,712.50 1,936,863,682,656.25
3,010,874.50 9,065,365,254,750.25
26,611,967,699,310.50

YAverage 13,862,294.50
 1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111
Sy SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(Y-Yavg)
2
1,719,559.62 Sy Value

To Determine "m"

Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2
1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652 126651525649936
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629 199487008776169
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612 184036003284169
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136 161199918781209
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000 180418865776081
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000 224357379502096
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370 263548924956100
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104 239255064208384
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546 298779314434756
∑ 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425 2034324790982276

To Determine "b"

Session X Y (X)*(Y) X2
1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652 126651525649936
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629 199487008776169
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612 184036003284169
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136 161199918781209
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000 180418865776081
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000 224357379502096
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370 263548924956100
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104 239255064208384
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546 298779314434756
∑ 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425 2034324790982276

Determination of Variance and the Standard Deviation

(n-1)/(n-2) (Sy)2 m2*(Sx)2 {(n-1)/(n-2)}*{(Sy)2-m2*(Sx)2}

1.13 2,956,885,299,923.39 2910299096062.73 52,409,479,343.24

228,931.17

Summary of The Tender price Gambling

Bidder's current price (X) Mean value, µ{Y=mX + b}

8,597,654 8,723,177.32
 n*∑X*Y ∑X*∑Y n*∑(x)2 (∑x)2

1.99055903945342E+016 1.96223379213948E+016 ### ###

∑Y*∑X2 ∑(X)*∑X*Y ∑X* ∑Y n*∑X2-( ∑X)2

 ### 2.8176736632339E+023 ### 306,314,310,703,384.00

Remark

This is the Variance

is the Standard Deviation as the

Square root of Variance is the
Standard Deviation

The Tender price Gambling

Proposed Rebate in % to have

a 98% probability of winning
Z=(Yi-µ)/S the Bid
8,345,440.89 2.93351077440956
 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

283,252,473,139,428.00 306,314,310,703,384.00 0.92471185067717 m Value

∑Y * ∑X2 - ∑X* ∑Y n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 ∑Y*∑x2 -∑X* ∑X*Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

### 19,316,023,610,691,400.00 772,824.78 b Value
 Session X Y (X)*(Y)
1 12,345,678.00 12,200,567.00 150624271599426
2 15,652,897.00 15,652,897.00 245013184492609
3 13,342,786.00 13,000,908.00 173468333249688
4 14,543,897.00 14,543,897.00 211524939946609
5 13,987,653.00 12,876,098.00 180106390817994
6 16,897,098.00 15,389,700.00 260041269090600
7 16,897,098.00 16,105,678.00 272139219522444
8 14,789,324.00 14,789,000.00 218719312636000
9 14,876,908.00 13,678,987.00 203501031132196
10 13,567,098.00 13,567,000.00 184064818566000
Summation 146,900,437.00 141,804,732.00 2099202771053566

Determination of Values using MS Excel

m 0.81
b 2,247,171.29
Sy 1,311,474.64
Sx 1,483,273.82
m2 0.66
(Sy) 2
1,719,965,734,160.62
(Sx) 2
2,200,101,236,918.01
Variance 301,645,254,768.29
S= STDV 549,222.41

Determination of Values by Calculator

1) To Determine Sx

Session X X-Xaverage {X-Xavg}2

1 12,345,678.00 -2,344,365.70 5,496,050,535,336.49
2 15,652,897.00 962,853.30 927,086,477,320.89
3 13,342,786.00 -1,347,257.70 1,815,103,310,209.29
4 14,543,897.00 -146,146.70 21,358,857,920.89
5 13,987,653.00 -702,390.70 493,352,695,446.49
6 16,897,098.00 2,207,054.30 4,871,088,683,148.49
7 16,897,098.00 2,207,054.30 4,871,088,683,148.49
8 14,789,324.00 99,280.30 9,856,577,968.09
9 14,876,908.00 186,864.30 34,918,266,614.49
10 13,567,098.00 -1,122,945.70 1,261,007,045,148.49
∑ 146,900,437.00 19,800,911,132,262.10
XAverage 14,690,043.70
 1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111

Sx SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(x-Xavg)2 1,483,273.82

1) To Determine Sy

Session Y (Y-Yaverage) {Y-Yavg}2

1 12,200,567.00
2 15,652,897.00
3 13,000,908.00
4 14,543,897.00
5 12,876,098.00
6 15,389,700.00
7 16,105,678.00
8 14,789,000.00
9 13,678,987.00
10 13,567,000.00
∑ 141,804,732.00
-1,979,906.20 3,920,028,560,798.44
1,472,423.80 2,168,031,846,806.44
-1,179,565.20 1,391,374,061,051.04
363,423.80 132,076,858,406.44
-1,304,375.20 1,701,394,662,375.04
1,209,226.80 1,462,229,453,838.24
1,925,204.80 3,706,413,521,943.04
608,526.80 370,304,866,318.24
-501,486.20 251,488,408,790.44
-613,473.20 376,349,367,118.24
15,479,691,607,445.60

YAverage 14,180,473.20

1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111
Sy SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(Y-Yavg)2 1,311,474.64

To Determine "m"

Session X Y (X)*(Y)
1 12,345,678.00 12,200,567.00 150624271599426
2 15,652,897.00 15,652,897.00 245013184492609
3 13,342,786.00 13,000,908.00 173468333249688
4 14,543,897.00 14,543,897.00 211524939946609
5 13,987,653.00 12,876,098.00 180106390817994
6 16,897,098.00 15,389,700.00 260041269090600
7 16,897,098.00 16,105,678.00 272139219522444
8 14,789,324.00 14,789,000.00 218719312636000
9 14,876,908.00 13,678,987.00 203501031132196
10 13,567,098.00 13,567,000.00 184064818566000
∑ 146,900,437.00 141,804,732.00 2099202771053566

To Determine "b"

Session X Y (X)*(Y)
 1 12,345,678.00 12,200,567.00 150624271599426
2 15,652,897.00 15,652,897.00 245013184492609
3 13,342,786.00 13,000,908.00 173468333249688
4 14,543,897.00 14,543,897.00 211524939946609
5 13,987,653.00 12,876,098.00 180106390817994
6 16,897,098.00 15,389,700.00 260041269090600
7 16,897,098.00 16,105,678.00 272139219522444
8 14,789,324.00 14,789,000.00 218719312636000
9 14,876,908.00 13,678,987.00 203501031132196
10 13,567,098.00 13,567,000.00 184064818566000
∑ 146,900,437.00 141,804,732.00 2099202771053566

Determination of Variance and the Standard Deviation

(n-1)/(n-2) (Sy)2 m2*(Sx)2

1.13 1,719,965,734,160.62 1451836618810.98

Summa

Bidder's current price (X)

10,989,000
 X2
152415765279684
245013184492609
178029938241796
211524939946609
195654436448409
285511920821604
285511920821604
218724104376976
221322391640464
184066148141604
2177774750211359
 Sx Value

Sy Value

X2 n*∑X*Y ∑X*∑Y
152415765279684
245013184492609
178029938241796
211524939946609
195654436448409
285511920821604
285511920821604
218724104376976
221322391640464
184066148141604
2177774750211359 2.09920277105357E+016 2.08311770994679E+016

X2 ∑Y*∑X2 ∑(X)*∑X*Y
 152415765279684
245013184492609
178029938241796
211524939946609
195654436448409
285511920821604
285511920821604
218724104376976
221322391640464
184066148141604
2177774750211359 ### 3.0837380441938E+023

eviation

{(n-1)/(n-2)}*{(Sy)2-m2*(Sx)2} Remark

301,645,254,768.34 This is the Variance

is the Standard Deviation as the

Square root of Variance is the
549,222.41 Standard Deviation

Summary of The Tender price Gambling

Proposed Rebate in % to have

a 90% probability of winning
Mean value, µ{Y=mX + b} Z=(Yi-µ)/S the Bid
11,173,969.42 10,465,472.52 4.76410486086562
n*∑(x)2 (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y

### ### 160,850,611,067,776.00

∑X* ∑Y n*∑X2-( ∑X)2 ∑Y * ∑X2 - ∑X* ∑Y

### 198,009,111,322,624.00 ###
 n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

198,009,111,322,624.00 0.812339442328468 m Value

n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 ∑Y*∑x2 -∑X* ∑X*Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

20,633,167,988,145,300.00 2,247,171.29 b Value
B1 250,000 29.4 56 85.4
b2 265000 27.73585 60.2 87.93585
B3 260000 28.26923 58.8 87.06923
B4 272000 27.02206 66.5 93.52206 11148261.29
B5 245000 30 50.4 80.4
Sxy2 1311474.64
Sx2 1483273.82
m2 0.81

1.11111111111111

-714989.690974194
10433271.5990258
 10,989,000

1719965731363
2200101225097
0.6561

1443486413786
276479317576.7
307199241751.9
554255.5743986

0.94942866494
0.05057133506
5.057133505999
 Session X Y X*Y X2
1 150,000.00 125,000.00 18,750,000,000.00 22,500,000,000.00
2 131,500.00 129,781.00 17,066,201,500.00 17,292,250,000.00
3 145,600.00 145,600.00 21,199,360,000.00 21,199,360,000.00
4 138,000.00 136,900.00 18,892,200,000.00 19,044,000,000.00
5 144,500.00 142,200.00 20,547,900,000.00 20,880,250,000.00
6 129,967.00 129,050.00 16,772,241,350.00 16,891,421,089.00
7 140,000.00 135,000.00 18,900,000,000.00 19,600,000,000.00
8 125,500.00 123,712.00 15,525,856,000.00 15,750,250,000.00
9 143,000.00 141,500.00 20,234,500,000.00 20,449,000,000.00
10 150,000.00 148,896.00 22,334,400,000.00 22,500,000,000.00
Sum 1,398,067.00 1,357,639.00 190,222,658,850.00 196,106,531,089.00
Average 139,806.70 135,763.90
 (X-Xavg)2 (Y-Yavg)2
103,903,364.89 115,861,543.21
69,001,264.89 35,795,092.41
33,562,324.89 96,748,863.21
3,264,164.89 1,290,723.21
22,027,064.89 41,423,383.21
96,819,696.09 45,076,453.21
37,364.89 583,543.21
204,681,664.89 145,248,293.61
10,197,164.89 32,902,843.21
103,903,364.89 172,452,050.41
647,397,440.10 687,382,788.90

To calculate Sx , Sy & S

Sx2
Sx
Sy2
Sy
n
m2
Variance,V
Standard Dev, S

m
b
Sy
Sx

Let x
Y, the mean value
 Assume

Yi

Discount, D
 To calculate "m" Value

n*Sum(X*Y) 1,902,226,588,500.00
SumX * SumY 1,898,070,283,813.00
n*Sum(X)2 1,961,065,310,890.00
(SumX)2 1,954,591,336,489.00
m 0.64

To Calculate "b" Values

SumY*Sum(x2) 266,241,874,761,139,000.00
SumX*Sum(x*Y) 265,944,021,990,443,000.00
n*Sum(x )
2
1,961,065,310,890.00
(SumX)2 1,954,591,336,489.00

b 46,007.72

To calculate Sx , Sy & S Values Using The Formula

(1/n-1)*Sum(X-Xavg)2 71,933,048.90
Sqrt*x2 8,481.34
(1/n-1)*Sum(Y-Yavg)2 76,375,865.43
Square root of ((1/9)*687,382,788.9)) 8,739.33
10.00
.64*.64 0.41
(9/8)*[(Sy)2 -m2*(Sx)2] 52,568,398.20
Square root of Variance 7,250.41

Also Using MS-Excel The result reveals the same

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X Values),1) 0.64

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X values),2) 46,007.72
STDEVA(Y values) 8,739.33
STDEVA(X values) 8,481.34

1,600,000.00
mx+b 1,073,210.96
95% probability Z value = -1.65

(Yi-Y)/S (Yi-K39)/K28

Y-(Z*S) 1,061,247.79

1-(Yi/X) 0.34
 Session X Y X*Y X2
1 235,000.00 220,675.00 51,858,625,000.00 55,225,000,000.00
2 215,789.00 154,890.00 33,423,558,210.00 46,564,892,521.00
3 179,876.00 130,567.00 23,485,869,692.00 32,355,375,376.00
4 170,000.00 156,000.00 26,520,000,000.00 28,900,000,000.00
5 220,245.00 153,156.00 33,731,843,220.00 48,507,860,025.00
6 135,987.00 120,978.00 16,451,435,286.00 18,492,464,169.00
7 140,000.00 135,000.00 18,900,000,000.00 19,600,000,000.00
8 189,000.00 184,000.00 34,776,000,000.00 35,721,000,000.00
9 195,000.00 192,000.00 37,440,000,000.00 38,025,000,000.00
10 230,987.00 195,659.00 45,194,685,433.00 53,354,994,169.00
11 267,890.00 248,000.00 66,436,720,000.00 71,765,052,100.00
12 290,567.00 286,987.00 83,388,951,629.00 84,429,181,489.00
13 220,678.00 175,000.00 38,618,650,000.00 48,698,779,684.00
14 210,678.00 145,098.00 30,568,956,444.00 44,385,219,684.00
15 224,589.00 167,967.00 37,723,540,563.00 50,440,218,921.00
Sum 3,126,286.00 2,665,977.00 578,518,835,477.00 676,465,038,138.00
Average 208,419.07 177,731.80

0.914296003086426
8.57039969135744
0.916372980790304
8.36270192096965
 (X-Xavg)2 (Y-Yavg)2
706,546,016.87 1,844,118,426.24
54,315,917.34 521,747,827.24
814,706,654.74 2,224,518,359.04
1,476,024,683.54 472,271,131.24
139,852,699.20 603,969,945.64
5,246,404,281.60 3,220,993,814.44
4,681,168,683.54 1,826,006,731.24
377,100,150.20 39,290,331.24
180,071,350.20 203,581,531.24
509,311,614.94 321,384,499.84
3,536,791,911.54 4,937,619,931.24
6,748,282,950.94 11,936,698,727.04
150,281,446.47 7,462,731.24
5,102,779.80 1,064,964,902.44
261,466,744.00 95,351,319.04
24,887,427,884.93 29,319,980,208.40

To calculate Sx , Sy & S

Sx2
Sx
Sy2
Sy
n
m2
Variance,V
42102.2829788106 Standard Dev, S
8980008.68
8,966,145.98
2,094,284,300.60
0.845067051115991
1,772,602,232.03 m
1,497,967,741.02 b
596,316,559.58 Sy
1.07692307692308 Sx
642,187,064.16
25341.4100665606 Let x
41813.326609825 Y, the mean value
8,924,332.66
21540.1985565765 Assume
8,944,605.78
Z

Yi

Discount, D
 To calculate "m" Value

n*Sum(X*Y) 8,677,782,532,155.00
SumX * SumY 8,334,606,571,422.00
n*Sum(X)2 10,146,975,572,070.00
(SumX)2 9,773,664,153,796.00
m 0.92

To Calculate "b" Values

SumY*Sum(x2) 1,803,440,232,980,030,000.00
SumX*Sum(x*Y) 1,808,615,336,088,050,000.00
n*Sum(x2) 10,146,975,572,070.00
(SumX)2 9,773,664,153,796.00

b -13,862.70

To calculate Sx , Sy & S Values Using The Formula

(1/n-1)*Sum(X-Xavg)2 1,777,673,420.35
Sqrt*x2 42,162.46
(1/n-1)*Sum(Y-Yavg)2 2,094,284,300.60
Square root of ((1/14)*687,382,788.9)) 45,763.35
15.00
m*m 0.8451
(n-1/n-2)*[(Sy)2 -m2*(Sx)2] 637,571,916.60
Square root of Variance 25,250.19

Also Using MS-Excel The result reveals the same

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X Values),1) 0.92

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X values),2) -13,862.70
STDEVA(Y values) 45,763.35
STDEVA(X values) 42,162.46

9,760,879.00
mx+b 8,959,072.14

90% probability Z value = -1.29

(Yi-Y)/S (Yi-K39)/K28

Y-(Z*S) 8,926,499.39

1-(Yi/X) 0.09
 Session X Y X*Y X2
1 356,098.00 220,675.00 78,581,926,150.00 126,805,785,604.00
2 320,987.00 154,890.00 49,717,676,430.00 103,032,654,169.00
3 245,234.00 130,567.00 32,019,467,678.00 60,139,714,756.00
4 210,987.00 156,000.00 32,913,972,000.00 44,515,514,169.00
5 220,245.00 153,156.00 33,731,843,220.00 48,507,860,025.00
6 169,876.00 120,978.00 20,551,258,728.00 28,857,855,376.00
7 167,893.00 135,000.00 22,665,555,000.00 28,188,059,449.00
8 189,000.00 184,000.00 34,776,000,000.00 35,721,000,000.00
9 210,987.00 192,000.00 40,509,504,000.00 44,515,514,169.00
10 230,987.00 195,659.00 45,194,685,433.00 53,354,994,169.00
11 267,890.00 248,000.00 66,436,720,000.00 71,765,052,100.00
12 310,432.00 286,987.00 89,089,948,384.00 96,368,026,624.00
13 220,678.00 175,000.00 38,618,650,000.00 48,698,779,684.00
14 210,678.00 145,098.00 30,568,956,444.00 44,385,219,684.00
15 224,589.00 167,967.00 37,723,540,563.00 50,440,218,921.00
16 350,678.00 297,687.00 104,392,281,786.00 122,975,059,684.00
17 235,678.00 203,456.00 47,950,103,168.00 55,544,119,684.00
18 322,675.00 295,674.00 95,406,607,950.00 104,119,155,625.00
19 567,980.00 495,786.00 281,596,532,280.00 322,601,280,400.00
20 789,987.00 623,432.00 492,503,175,384.00 624,079,460,169.00
Sum 5,823,559.00 4,582,012.00 ### ###
Average 291,177.95 229,100.60

Summary

m 0.81
b -7,754.17
sx 148,487.70
sy 126,764.06
S 39,923.46
Y 46,269,199.47
Rebate 0.19
 (X-Xavg)2 (Y-Yavg)2
4,214,612,892.00 70,990,735.36
888,579,461.90 5,507,213,152.36
2,110,846,541.60 9,708,870,328.96
6,430,588,461.90 5,343,697,720.36
5,031,483,395.70 5,767,582,269.16
14,714,163,073.80 11,690,496,630.76
15,199,178,896.50 8,854,922,920.36
10,440,333,466.20 2,034,064,120.36
6,430,588,461.90 1,376,454,520.36
3,622,950,461.90 1,118,340,610.56
542,328,615.20 357,187,320.36
370,718,441.40 3,350,835,304.96
4,970,242,950.00 2,926,874,920.36
6,480,241,950.00 7,056,436,806.76
4,434,088,262.10 3,737,317,048.96
3,540,255,950.00 4,704,094,264.96
3,080,244,450.00 657,645,509.16
992,064,158.70 4,432,017,587.56
76,619,374,884.20 71,121,102,573.16
248,810,468,361.90 155,497,253,025.96
418,923,353,136.95 305,313,397,370.80

To calculate Sx , Sy & S

Sx2
Sx
Sy2
Sy
n
m2
Variance,V
Standard Dev, S
0.81343649383805 m
-7754.17073095116 b
126764.057119558 Sy
148487.701623817 Sx

Let x
Y, the mean value

Assume

Yi

Discount, D
 To calculate "m" Value

n*Sum(X*Y) 33,498,968,091,960.00
SumX * SumY 26,683,617,220,708.00
n*Sum(X)2 42,292,306,489,220.00
(SumX)2 33,913,839,426,481.00
m 0.81

To Calculate "b" Values

SumY*Sum(x2) 9,689,192,792,064,190,000.00
SumX*Sum(x*Y) 9,754,160,856,132,320,000.00

n*Sum(x2) 42,292,306,489,220.00
(SumX)2 33,913,839,426,481.00

b -7,754.17

To calculate Sx , Sy & S Values Using The Formula

(1/n-1)*Sum(X-Xavg)2 22,048,597,533.52
Sqrt*x2 148,487.70
(1/n-1)*Sum(Y-Yavg)2 16,069,126,177.41
Square root of ((1/14)*687,382,788.9)) 126,764.06
20.00
m*m 0.6617
(n-1/n-2)*[(Sy)2 -m2*(Sx)2] 1,593,882,515.38
Square root of Variance 39,923.46
 Also Using MS-Excel The result reveals the same

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X Values),1) 0.81

INDEX(LINEST(Y values, X values),2) -7,754.17
STDEVA(Y values) 126,764.06
STDEVA(X values) 148,487.70

56,890,678.00
mx+b 46,269,199.47

75% probability Z value = -0.68

(Yi-Y)/S (Yi-K39)/K28

Y-(Z*S) 46,242,051.52

1-(Yi/X) 0.19
 Session X Y (X)*(Y)
1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546
Summation 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425

Determination of Values using MS Excel

m 0.92
b 772,824.78
Sy 1,719,559.62
Sx 1,844,855.64 1719405.45867982
m2 0.86 Sy
(Sy) 2
2,956,885,299,923.39 Sy2
(Sx) 2
3,403,492,341,148.71
Variance 52,409,479,343.19 m2*sx2
S= STDV 228,931.17 sy2-m2sx2
9/8*()
Determination of Values by Calculator SQRT

1) To Determine Sx

Session X X-Xaverage {X-Xavg}2

1 11,253,956.00 -2,901,231.60 8,417,144,796,838.56
2 12,513,624.00 -1,641,563.60 2,694,731,052,844.96
3 14,123,987.00 -31,200.60 973,477,440.36
4 13,565,987.00 -589,200.60 347,157,347,040.36
5 12,696,453.00 -1,458,734.60 2,127,906,633,237.16
6 13,432,009.00 -723,178.60 522,987,287,497.96
7 14,978,564.00 823,376.40 677,948,696,076.96
8 16,234,190.00 2,079,002.40 4,322,250,979,205.76
9 15,467,872.00 1,312,684.40 1,723,140,334,003.36
10 17,285,234.00 3,130,046.40 9,797,190,466,152.96
∑ 141,551,876.00 30,631,431,070,338.40
XAverage 14,155,187.60
 1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111

Sx SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(x-Xavg)2 1,844,855.64

1) To Determine Sy

Session Y (Y-Yaverage) {Y-Yavg}2

1 11,120,167.00
2 12,513,624.00
3 14,000,567.00
4 12,905,876.00
5 12,456,912.00
6 13,432,000.00
7 14,567,000.00
8 15,499,623.00
9 15,254,007.00
10 16,873,169.00
∑ 138,622,945.00
-2,742,127.50 7,519,263,226,256.25
-1,348,670.50 1,818,912,117,570.25
138,272.50 19,119,284,256.25
-956,418.50 914,736,347,142.25
-1,405,382.50 1,975,099,971,306.25
-430,294.50 185,153,356,730.25
704,705.50 496,609,841,730.25
1,637,328.50 2,680,844,616,912.25
1,391,712.50 1,936,863,682,656.25
3,010,874.50 9,065,365,254,750.25
26,611,967,699,310.50

YAverage 13,862,294.50

1/(n-1) 0.111111111111111
Sy SQRT{[1/(n-1)}*(∑(Y-Yavg)2 1,719,559.62

To Determine "m"

Session X Y (X)*(Y)
1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546
∑ 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425

To Determine "b"

Session X Y (X)*(Y)
 1 11,253,956.00 11,120,167.00 125145870130652
2 12,513,624.00 12,513,624.00 156590785613376
3 14,123,987.00 14,000,567.00 197743826300629
4 13,565,987.00 12,905,876.00 175080946039612
5 12,696,453.00 12,456,912.00 158158597733136
6 13,432,009.00 13,432,000.00 180418744888000
7 14,978,564.00 14,567,000.00 218192741788000
8 16,234,190.00 15,499,623.00 251623824710370
9 15,467,872.00 15,254,007.00 235947027763104
10 17,285,234.00 16,873,169.00 291656674486546
∑ 141,551,876.00 138,622,945.00 1990559039453425

Determination of Variance and the Standard Deviation

(n-1)/(n-2) (Sy)2 m2*(Sx)2

1.13 2,956,885,299,923.39 2910299096062.73

Summa

Bidder's current price (X)

8,597,654
 X2
126651525649936
156590785613376
199487008776169
184036003284169
161199918781209
180418865776081
224357379502096
263548924956100
239255064208384
298779314434756
2034324790982276

468,907.05
8,213,759.41
8,682,666.46
0.955348914157281
1719405.45867982 0.0446510858427193
2,956,355,131,337.96

2910299096062.77
46,056,035,275.18
51,813,039,684.58
227624.778274647
 Sx Value

Sy Value

X2 n*∑X*Y ∑X*∑Y
126651525649936
156590785613376
199487008776169
184036003284169
161199918781209
180418865776081
224357379502096
263548924956100
239255064208384
298779314434756
2034324790982276 1.99055903945342E+016 1.96223379213948E+016

X2 ∑Y*∑X2 ∑(X)*∑X*Y
 126651525649936
156590785613376
199487008776169
184036003284169
161199918781209
180418865776081
224357379502096
263548924956100
239255064208384
298779314434756
2034324790982276 ### 2.8176736632339E+023

eviation

{(n-1)/(n-2)}*{(Sy)2-m2*(Sx)2} Remark

52,409,479,343.24 This is the Variance

is the Standard Deviation as the

Square root of Variance is the
228,931.17 Standard Deviation

Summary of The Tender price Gambling

Proposed Rebate in % to have

a 98% probability of winning
Mean value, µ{Y=mX + b} Z=(Yi-µ)/S the Bid
8,723,177.32 8,345,440.89 2.93351077440956
n*∑(x)2 (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y

### ### 283,252,473,139,428.00

∑X* ∑Y n*∑X2-( ∑X)2 ∑Y * ∑X2 - ∑X* ∑Y

### 306,314,310,703,384.00 ###
 n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 n*∑X*Y -∑X* ∑Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

306,314,310,703,384.00 0.92471185067717 m Value

n*∑(x)2 - (∑x)2 ∑Y*∑x2 -∑X* ∑X*Y/n*∑x2 -(∑x)2

19,316,023,610,691,400.00 772,824.78 b Value