TREND ANALYSIS OF WEATHER VARIABLES AND

REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN WONJI

SUGARCANE PLANTATION

ABERA GIRMA
Civil and irrigation Division manager

abe12mt@gmail.com

JUNE 1, 2021
 Trend Analysis of Weather Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in
Wonji Sugarcane Plantation
1. ABSTRACT
In this study, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) has been estimated using Penman.Monteith
(PM) method on monthly time step. The ten years average monthly values of five weather
variables have been subsequently used to estimate annual and seasonal ETo values using
meteorological station data located at Wonji/Shoa sugarcane plantation in Ethiopia for the period
of 41 years (1979 – 2019). The trend analysis has been carried out for monthly, annual and
seasonal ETo values. Further, the trend of weather variables that affect ETo have been examined
using the Mann Kendall test after removing the effect of significant lag-1 serial correlation from
the time series using trend free-pre-whitening (TFPW) method. The magnitude of trends has
been calculated using Sen’s slope estimator. Almost all the months show the increasing trend in
ETo values even though only three months (Jan., Feb. and Oct.) are significant at a significance
level of 5%. The significant increasing trends were also found in annual and seasonal ETo values
except Bega season during the period of analysis. The magnitude of increase in annual ETo was
28.61 mm/year. On the seasonal scale, stronger increasing trends were identified in ETo in Belg
and Tedey season as compare to that of Kremt and Bega season. The trend in maximum air
temperature also shows an upward trend in all the months, annual and seasonal values but only
eight months except July, Aug., Nov., and Dec. and three seasons are show significant upward
trends at 5% significant level. The magnitude of increase in annual average maximum air
temperature was 0.34oc/decade. Stronger increasing trends were identified in average maximum
air temperature in Belg season (0.61oc/decade) as compare to that of other season. However;
significant decreasing trend values were observed at 1% significant level in average minimum air
temperature in all months, seasons and annual values. The significant downward trend of average
minimum air Temperature is higher in Belg period (1.46oc/decade). The magnitude of decreasing
in annual average minimum Temperature was 1.19oc/decade. On the other hands, both increasing
and decreasing trend values were observed in Wind speed, Rainfall, Relative humidity and
Sunshine hours. Using the sensitivity analysis, Sunshine hours followed by Maximum
temperature, Relative humidity and then Minimum temperature was found to be the most
dominant variables which influence the rate of annual ETo respectively.

1
Contents
1. ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................................1
2. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................3
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS......................................................................................................4
3.1. Study area...................................................................................................................................4
3.2. Details of data.............................................................................................................................4
3.3. Methods.......................................................................................................................................5
3.3.1. Crop Wat 8 for windows......................................................................................................5
3.3.2. Mann. Kendall (MK) test.....................................................................................................5
3.3.3. Theil–Sen’s estimator..........................................................................................................6
3.3.4. Sensitivity of ETo to meteorological variables....................................................................6
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................................................................................8
4.1. Mean Monthly and Annual ETo Distribution............................................................................8
4.2. Monthly, Annual and Seasonal trends in ETo...........................................................................8
4.3. Trend Analysis of Monthly Weather Variables..........................................................................9
4.3.1. Trend of Air Temperature....................................................................................................9
4.3.2. Trend of wind speed...........................................................................................................11
4.3.3. Trend of Relative Humidity...............................................................................................12
4.3.4. Trend in Rainfall................................................................................................................12
4.3.5. Trend in Sunshine hours....................................................................................................13
4.4. Sensitivity of ETo to meteorological variables.........................................................................14
5. DISCUSSION...................................................................................................................................16
6. CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................................19
7. REFERENCES................................................................................................................................20

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 2. INTRODUCTION
Evapotranspiration is one of the important parameter for designing irrigation infrastructure, management
of irrigation farm like irrigation scheduling, evaluation of any irrigation firm and national and regional
water allocation. In addition to that planning of different kinds of Agricultural activities like land
preparation starting from uprooting till furrowing, planting and any cultural practices in large agricultural
sector specifically sugarcane is dominated by climate variables. Setting of date, amount and resources like
machinery, labourer, agricultural chemicals and then budget is highly influenced by weather variables.
Any change in meteorological variables due to climate change will affect planning, evapotranspiration or
crop water requirement and then finally production (Darshana et al. 2012).
In recent years, numerous studies have been conducted to examine the trend in reference
evapotranspiration (ETo) and weather variables for many regions resulting in different conclusions.
Golubev et al. (2001) reported 1.6 % decreases in Epan over most of the United States and the former
Soviet Union national during the period of 1951-1990. In Australia, the decrease in Epan was 6.8 %
(Roderick and Farquhar 2004) over the last 33 years (1970-2002).
On the other hand, several researchers also reported increases in ETo trend across the world. Yu et al.
(2002) observed increasing trend in ETo at Kao-Hsiung, south Taiwan, using 48 years of data
(1950.1997). Burn and Hesch (2007) established both increasing and decreasing trends in lake
evaporation calculated at 48 stations of the Canadian Prairies for 1971-2000. Further, this study
concluded that increasing trends were more in northern regions and decreasing trends were more in the
southern regions. Dinpashoh et al. (2011) reported maximum increase was 28 % and maximum
decreasing was 18 % in annual ETo over Iran during the period 1965-2005. The significant increase was
8 % in annual ETo during the 45 years (1960-2005) in Southern Spain (Espadafor et al. 2011). Da Silva
(2004) reported maximum increase was 25.2 % in ETo in Northeast Brazil using the 30 years data (1961-
1990) for different stations.
The meteorological variables which can have influence on ETo are: air temperature both maximum and
minimum, sunshine duration, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. However, as reported by
various researchers important meteorological parameters dominating ETo are sunshine duration or solar
radiation in Russia and United States (Peterson et al. 1995), in China (Gao et al. 2006;), in southwest
England and in Israel (Cohen et al. 2002) while others have mainly attributed it to wind speed in Australia
(Rayner 2007), Tibetan Plateau ( Zhang et al. 2007), Canadian Prairies (Burn and Hesch 2007), Iran
(Dinpashoh et al. 2011) and North East India (Jhajharia et al. 2011), to relative humidity in India
(Chattopadhyay and Hulme 1997), as well as to maximum temperature in China (Cong and Yang 2009)
and in western half of Iran (Tabari et al. 2011a).
Evapotranspiration (ETo) affects crop water requirement and future planning and management of water
resources. Therefore, for future crop planning and management of water resources, expected change in
Evapotranspiration will be a prerequisite. Quantitative estimation of the ETo trend using long term data
may provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on the future water balance and water
resource planning in the sugar factory.
The present study has been undertaken with the following specific objectives:
1. To detect the monotonic linear trends in monthly, annual and seasonal ETo series and
weather variables which effect ETo using the non-parametric Mann. Kendall test;
2. To estimate the magnitude of trend in ETo times series and weather variables using the
Theil.Sens estimator method; and
3. To identify the most dominating meteorological variables which affect the ETo time series
using sensitivity analysis.

3
 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1. Study area
Wonji/Shoa sugar factory is located in east central part of the country in the flood plain of center
part of the Ethiopian rift valley Region. Wonji is situated in the Awash basin some 10 km
distance south west of Adama and elevated 1540m above mean sea level at 8.31 0N latitude and
39.120E longitudes (Abera, 2013).
The estate experiences a bimodal rainfall distribution pattern, receiving the major rains during
July to September and lesser rains during March and June. The long term average annual rainfall
is 820 mm. The mean maximum air temperature is 27.3 oC with a maximum of 29.74 oC in
month of May and a minimum of 25.01 oC in month of August. The mean minimum air
temperature is 14.7 oC with a maximum and minimum value of 17.19 and 11.94 oC in the months
of June and December, respectively. The long-term average relative humidity, pan evaporation,
and sunshine hours are 53%, 6.8 mm/day, 8.3 hrs/day, respectively. Wind speed in the day and
night are 6.3 km/hr and 2.29 km/hr, respectively (Abera, 2013).

Fig. 1:- location of study area

3.2. Details of data

There are only one meteorological stations in the Wonji sugarcane plantation area which are
maintained by Wonji research center, from where daily data were obtained. The data were
comprised of the daily values of the following five variables:- maximum air temperature ( 0C),
minimum air temperature (0C), relative humidity (%), sunshine hours (hrs) and both day and
night wind speed (km/day) which were averaged over each calendar month in order to get the
monthly values of meteorological variable. Quality of data was checked prior to the analysis.

4
There were few missing observations in the time series of variables. These missing data were
substituted with the corresponding long-term mean.
3.3. Methods
3.3.1. Crop Wat 8 for windows
Crop Wat 8 for windows computer programme that uses the modified Penman Monteith equation
developed by FAO (1992) was used to calculate ETo. The program uses a flexible menu system
and file handling and extensive use of graphics. It has two important advantages. First, Crop Wat
for Windows uses graphs and forms to display results and it can be used in a great variety of
environments and climate scenarios without any local calibrations due to its physical basis.
Second, it is a well-documented method that has been validated using lysimeters under a wide
range of climate conditions. The drawback of this method is using only monthly climatic data to
calculate reference evapotranspiration and a large number of meteorological parameter are
required for its application, i.e. air temperatures both minimum and maximum, relative humidity,
wind speed and sunshine hours (Landeras et al. 2008).
CropWat 8 is implemented using monthly averages weather parameter to calculate a mean
monthly value of ETo after grouping the monthly average weather parameter into five group.
Each group consisting of ten years. These results are then multiplied by the number of days in
each month to provide a monthly estimate of ETo. Seasonal ETo was obtained by adding
monthly values during particular season and similarly, annual ETo is derived by summing
monthly values in a year. By using the above manipulated data as the input for CropWat 8,
monthly ETo was calculated for five groups.
3.3.2. Mann. Kendall (MK) test
The MK test (Kendall 1975; Mann 1945) is the rank based nonparametric test for assessing the
significance of a trend. This test has the several advantages over parametric methods. Some of
these advantages include:
 Does not require the assumption of normality or the assumption of homogeneity of
variance
 Compare medians rather than means and, as a result, if the data have one or two outliers,
their influence is negated
 Prior transformations are not required, even when approximate normality could be
achieved;
 Greater power is achieved for the skewed distributions
 Data below the detection limit can be incorporated without fabrication of values or bias
(Helsel 1987).
This method has been used widely across the world to detect trend in ETo and other hydrological
variables (Burn and Hesch 2007; Dinpashoh et al. 2011). It is based on the test statics S defined
as
n−1 n
s=∑ ∑ sgn ( xj−xi ) (1)
i=1 j=i+1

Where,
X1, X2 … Xn represent n data points where xj represents the data point at time j.

5
A very high positive value of S is an indicator of an increasing trend, and a very low negative
value indicates a decreasing trend

{
1if ( xj−xi )> 0
( )
sgn xj−xi = 0 if ( xj−xi )=0 (2)
−1if ( xj−xi )< 0

It has been documented that when n > 10, the statistic S is approximately normally distributed
with the mean
E ( s )=0(3)

And its variance is

m
n ( n−1 ) ( 2n+5 )−∑ ti ( ti−1 )( 2 ti+5 )
i=1
VAR ( S ) = (4 )
18
Where,
n is the number of data points,
m is the number of tied groups (a tied group is a set of sample data having the same value), and
ti is the number of data points in the ith group.
The standardized test statistic (Z) is computed as follows:

{
S−1
if S> 0
√ var ( s )
Z= 0 if S=0 (5)
S−1
if S< 0
√ var ( s )
The null hypothesis, H0, meaning that no significant trend is present, is accepted if the test
statistic (Z) is not statistically significant, i.e. -Z α/2 < Z < Zα/2, where Zα/2 is the standard normal
deviate.
3.3.3. Theil–Sen’s estimator
The slope of n pairs of data points were estimated using the Eq. 6 which is given by the
following relation:
β=median (
xj−xi
j−i )
for all i< j(6)
In which 1 < j < i < n and β is the robust estimate of the trend magnitude. A positive value of β
indicates an upward trend, while a negative value of β indicates a downward trend.
3.3.4. Sensitivity of ETo to meteorological variables
In order to evaluate effect of meteorological parameters on ETo, sensitivity analysis was carried
out to find the most sensitive parameters. The sensitivity of ETo to a meteorological variable X
is expressed by its derivative, i.e. jETo/ jX (Beven 1979). For the modified PM method with
multiple independent variables of different dimensions and ranges, the sensitivity coefficient
itself is sensitive to the relative value of ETo and X. To be dimensionless, the relative sensitivity
coefficient (S) was calculated as (McCuen 1974):

6
 ∂ ETo X /¿
S= X¿ (7)¿
∂X ETo
Neglecting the higher order, first-order Taylor series approximation was applied to calculate S
(Lenhart et al).
ΔETo X /¿
S= X¿ ( 8) ¿
ΔX ETo
Where
ΔX is the relative change of model input value X and ΔETo is the relative change in ETo
induced by ΔX.
The coefficient of S represents changes in ETo induced by changing meteorological variable X.
If S is 1.5, then a 10 % increase of X would cause a 15 % increase in ETo, while other
meteorological variables are fixed. Positive or negative values of S indicate that the behavior of
ETo is consistent with or contrary to the behavior of input factors. The higher the value of S, the
greater the impact of the meteorological variable on ETo. The primary advantage of S is its being
dimensionless, which is useful to sort by order of influence for variables with different units. In
this study, sensitivity analyses for daily average ETo in each month were carried out at the study
area from -20 to + 20 % at an interval of +5 % (eight scenarios) to each of the five variables (i.e.
maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, Relative humidity, wind speed at 2 m
above the ground and sunshine hours) while keeping all the other parameters constant. Annual
values of S were calculated by averaging monthly values.

7
 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1. Mean Monthly and Annual ETo Distribution
Fig:-2 presents the average monthly total values of ETo obtained through the CROPWAT 8
computer program using modified PM method. ETo increased starting from January and reached
a maximum peak point at march then it start deceased from April to September. The monthly
total ETo in December stayed low around 108.6mm. On a seasonal time scale, all seasons have
somewhat very similar ETo values but the Bega seasons ETo values accounted for 26.82% of the
annual total ETo which is the maximum of the other seasons. Comparatively high value of
maximum temperature (29.6 0C), in the Bega season were responsible for high values of ETo. On
the other hand, comparatively low values of temperature (of about 26.9 0C) and low values of
minimum temperature (about 11.30C %) in the Tedey season have led to the occurrence of low
ETo values in the region.
150
145 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Fig. 2:- mean monthly total reference evapotranspiration in mm.

4.2. Monthly, Annual and Seasonal trends in ETo

Fig 3 shows the ETo trend results in terms of Z statistic and β values for all the months. Almost
all the months show the increasing trends but the trend is not significant in all months except Jan,
Feb and Oct at 10% significant level and Feb and Oct at 5% significant level. Estimation of the
magnitude of trends in ETo by Theil Sen’s estimator revealed that the steep upward ETo trend
slopes varies from 0.26 mm (in April) to 5.85 mm (in Feb). There is no any downward slope was
observed in all months.
Table 2 enlists increasing trend in annual and seasonal scale obtained from Mann. Kendall test.
Significant increasing trends in annual ETo were observed at significant level 10%. The
magnitude of upward trends in annual ETo values were 28.61 mm per year. Significant
increasing ETo trend was found mainly in Belg seasons at 5% significant level and in addition
except Bega seasons, all seasons ETo values were found a significant increase at 10% significant
level over the period of 1974 - 2019. The magnitude of upward trend varied between 3.15 mm in
Kremt season and 13.88mm in Belg season.
Table 2:- Annual and Seasonal ETo Trends

Kendall's Sen's
Seasons tau (Z) p-value slope (β)
Belg 1.000 0.027* 13.883

8
 Bega 0.400 0.462 4.846
Kremt 0.800 0.086** 3.152
Tedey 0.800 0.086** 8.285
Annual 0.800 0.086** 28.611
Significant trend at 5% indicated by *, significant trend at 10% indicated by **.

6.000
5.845 Sen's slope
5.000 4.417
3.953
4.000 3.449
3.000 2.596
2.100
2.000 1.800 1.550
1.292 1.395
0.904
1.000 0.262
0.000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Fig 3:- Monthly ETo trends

p-values
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Variable
JUNE

JULY

post mon...
MAY

OCT

pre mon...
NOV

annual
winter
JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

DEC
AUG

monsoon
SEP

4.3. Trend Analysis of Monthly Weather Variables

The weather variables affecting ETo are air temperature both minimum and maximum, relative
humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The high vapor pressure deficit and net radiation
causes the ETo rate to be higher, while the high actual vapor pressure and soil heat flux causes
the ETo to be lower (Allen et al. 1998). The results of Mann. Kendall test and Sen’s Slope
estimator on monthly weather variables are shown as follow.
4.3.1. Trend of Air Temperature
The solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere and the heat emitted by the earth increases the air
temperature. The sensible heat of the surrounding air transfers energy to the crop and exerts as
such a controlling influence on the rate of evapotranspiration (Allen et al. 1998). In sunny, warm
weather, the loss of water by evapotranspiration is greater as compared to cloudy and cool

9
weather. Results of trend analysis for monthly max air temperature for each year are shown in
Table 5. All months show an increasing trends in maximum air temperature. The increasing trend
is significant at 1% significant level for four months (Jan. Feb. March and Oct.), at 5%
significant level for three months (Apr., may June) and at 10% significant level for one months
(Sept.). The increase in magnitude of monthly maximum temperature ranges from 0.009 0C per
day in Dec. to 0.064 0C per year in Feb.
The significant increasing trend was observed in annual maximum temperature at one percent
significant level. The magnitude of annual maximum temperature were 0.034 0C per year.
Seasonally, significant increasing trends were observed in Belg and Bega seasons. The
increasing trends varied between 0.02 0C per year in Kremt and 0.061 0C per year in Belg.
Table 5:- Trends of maximum Air temperature

Kendall's Sen's
Months /Seasons tau (Z) p-value slope (β)
Jan 0.323 0.003 0.040
Feb 0.371 0.001 0.064
Mar 0.307 0.005 0.062
Apr. 0.280 0.011* 0.054
May 0.273 0.013* 0.043
Jun 0.249 0.023* 0.040
July 0.175 0.110 0.017
Aug. 0.093 0.399 0.012
Sep. 0.202 0.067** 0.025
Oct. 0.311 0.005 0.042
Nov. 0.172 0.118 0.020
Dec. 0.066 0.551 0.009
Belg 0.432 < 0.0001 0.061
Bega 0.370 0.001 0.039
Kremt 0.178 0.101 0.020
Tedey 0.235 0.031* 0.022
Annual 0.405 0.000 0.034
Significant trend at 1% indicated by bold no, Significant trend at 5% indicated by *, significant trend at 10% indicated by **.

Table 6 list out the trend of monthly minimum air temperature for each year. For minimum air
temperature, all months shows a significant decreasing trends. Trough out the year except Nov.
trend of minimum air temperature are statically significant at significant level of 1%. The
magnitude of minimum air temperature varied from -0.079 0C per year in September to -0.161 0C
per year in February. Seasonally, the magnitude of minimum air temperature ranges from -
0.1460C per year in Belg to -0.0910C per year in Kremt. For annual minimum air temperature,
statistically significant downward trends and its magnitude is -0.1190C per year.

10
Table 6:- Trends of minimum air temperature

Months Kendall' Sen's

/Seasons s tau p-value slope
JAN -0.444 < 0.0001 -0.148
FEB -0.494 < 0.0001 -0.161
MAR -0.487 < 0.0001 -0.151
APR -0.467 < 0.0001 -0.119
MAY -0.408 0.000 -0.085
JUNE -0.441 < 0.0001 -0.100
JULY -0.506 < 0.0001 -0.105
AUG -0.451 < 0.0001 -0.084
SEP -0.395 0.000 -0.079
OCT -0.401 0.000 -0.100
NOV -0.274 0.012* -0.100
DEC -0.340 0.002 -0.123
Belg -0.546 < 0.0001 -0.146
Bega -0.478 < 0.0001 -0.100
Kremt -0.446 < 0.0001 -0.091
Tedey -0.393 0.000 -0.102
Annual -0.571 < 0.0001 -0.119
Significant trend at 1% indicated by bold no, significant trend at 5% indicated by *

4.3.2. Trend of wind speed

The process of air movement and vapour removal depends to a large extent on wind which is a
major driving factor in transporting the water vapour transpired from the plant into the
atmosphere. Wind can help to maintain a vapour pressure deficit around the plant surface. The
results of trend analysis for daily wind speed for each month are shown in Table 7. The
decreasing trends were found starting from June to October and increasing trend was observed
from November to May. All the downward trend in five months is not significant trends at all
significant level but out of the upward trend two months (Feb. and March) and Jan. are
significant at 5% and 10% significant level respectively. The remaining months are not
significant upward trend at all significant level. The magnitude of decreasing trends varied from
-0.008 meter per year in June to -0.029 meter per year in July and an increasing trend varied
from 0.02 meter per year in Nov. to 0.066 meter per year in Feb.
Table 7:- Trends of Wind Speed

Kendall's Sen's
Months tau p-value slope
Jan 0.226 0.054** 0.037
Feb 0.448 0.000* 0.066
Mar 0.274 0.019* 0.055
Apr 0.115 0.326 0.022
May 0.049 0.673 0.008
June -0.037 0.754 -0.008

11
 July -0.075 0.522 -0.029
Aug -0.049 0.673 -0.015
Sep -0.147 0.210 -0.019
Oct -0.049 0.673 -0.010
Nov 0.114 0.333 0.020
Dec 0.141 0.230 0.025
Total 0.100 0.391 0.015
Significant trend at 5% indicated by *, significant trend at 10% indicated by **.

4.3.3. Trend of Relative Humidity

Relative humidity is the ratio between the amount of water the ambient air actually holds and the
amount it can hold at the same temperature. The higher the relative humidity, lowers the ETo
rate and vice versa. The results of trend analysis for daily relative humidity for each month are
shown in Table 8. The result showed the down ward trend is observed in four months (Feb.,
March, April, and Oct.), starting from July to Sept. and Nov. upward trend is showed and in the
remaining four months there is no any significant trend. But only one month (July) is significant
increasing trend at 5% significant level. The other months both the up and down ward trend is
not significant at all significant level. The increase in magnitude varied from 0.06 % per year in
September to 0.18 % per year in July and the decreasing trend magnitude varied from -0.021%
per year in Oct. to 0.214% per year in March.
Table 8:- Trends of Relative Humidity

Months Kendall's tau p-value Sen's slope

Jan 0.012 0.910 0.000
Feb -0.138 0.208 -0.134
Mar -0.147 0.177 -0.214
Apr -0.082 0.458 -0.090
May 0.006 0.955 0.000
June -0.011 0.919 0.000
July 0.230 0.038* 0.182
Aug 0.075 0.499 0.068
Sep 0.068 0.536 0.060
Oct -0.028 0.796 -0.021
Nov 0.118 0.280 0.117
Dec 0.015 0.893 0.000
Significant trend at 5% indicated by *.

4.3.4. Trend in Rainfall

Precipitation is one of the most important climatic variable that have a great contribution for crop
water requirement and flood management. In the area on average 12.11, 25.02, 69.13 and 6.15
percent is fallen in the season of Belg, Bega, Kremt and Tedey respectively. For analyzing the
rainfall trend in the area, Daily rainfall data of 50 years from 1970 to 2019 has been processed to
find out the monthly variability of rainfall and tabulated in table 9. In the table, there are rising
rates of precipitation in some months and decreasing trend in some other months obtained by
these statistical tests.

12
There is downward trend in the months of Jan, Feb, March, May, June, Aug., and Dec. But in the
months of Apr. Jul. Sept. Oct. and Nov. the trend is up ward. Except two months (Feb. and Aug.)
the trend suggesting overall insignificant at all significant level in the area. On seasonal and
annual basis, all seasons and annual precipitation except Tedey the decreasing trend is observed.
The maximum magnitude of decreasing trend is observed in the month of August with -1.48
mm/year and the minimum decreasing trend is obtained in the month of March with the
magnitude of -0.043 mm/year. The magnitude of upward trend varied from 0.333 mm/year in the
month of July to 0.077 mm/year in the month of April.
Table 9:- Trends of Rainfall

Kendall's
Months/Seasons tau p-value Sen's slope
Jan -0.056 0.594 0.000
Feb. -0.216 0.037* -0.050
Mar. -0.020 0.841 -0.043
Apr. 0.017 0.860 0.077
may -0.017 0.861 -0.091
Jun. -0.084 0.393 -0.235
Jul. 0.048 0.622 0.333
Aug. -0.211 0.031* -1.480
Sept. 0.019 0.847 0.087
Oct. 0.000 1.000 0.000
Nov. 0.137 0.204 0.000
Dec. -0.042 0.696 0.000
Belg -0.112 0.252 -0.632
Bega -0.030 0.757 -0.200
Kremt -0.061 0.530 -0.712
Tedey 0.033 0.738 0.082
Total -0.048 0.622 -0.903
Significant trend at 5% indicated by *.

4.3.5. Trend in Sunshine hours

Sunshine duration or sunshine hours is a climatological indicator, measuring duration
of sunshine in given period (usually, a day or a year) for a given location on Earth, typically
expressed as an averaged value over several years. It is a general indicator of cloudiness of a
location, and thus differs from insolation, which measures the total energy delivered by sunlight
over a given period. The results of trend analysis for sunshine hours for each month are shown in
Table 10. All months except three (May, July and November), the increasing trends were found.
The upward trend observed in all months except April are significant at 1% significant level. The
magnitude of increasing trends varied from 0.00 to 0.0092 hours per year. The maximum
magnitude of increasing trend is observed in the month of February.

13
Table 10:- Trends of Sunshine Hours
Kendall's Sen's
Months tau p-value slope
Jan 0.304 0.007 0.001
Feb 0.296 0.008 0.002
Mar 0.433 0.000 0.001
Apr 0.203 0.071 0.001
May -0.041 0.725 0.000
June 0.230 0.042 0.000
July -0.005 0.973 0.000
Aug 0.242 0.032 0.000
Sep 0.356 0.002 0.000
Oct 0.287 0.011 0.001
Nov -0.056 0.625 0.000
Dec 0.253 0.025 0.000
Significant trend at 1% indicated by bold no

4.4. Sensitivity of ETo to meteorological variables

ETo is one of the main elements in the hydrological cycle and is also a key factor for
implementation of design and operational activity of small and large agricultural farm which is
governed by air temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity and wind speed. ETo is a
nonlinear complex function of many parameters and change in any one parameter influences the
other parameter and therefore, the effect of such changes on ETo is very difficult to understand
(Dinpashoh et al. 2011). Fig. 4 presents the results of sensitivity of ETo to meteorological
variables. ETo reacted co-directionally to maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind
speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity. By comparing sensitivity coefficient (S), ETo was
found to be most sensitive to sunshine hours followed by maximum temperature, relative
humidity and then minimum temperature respectively. The sensitivity of ETo to sunshine hours
was highest with average s value of 0.40 which indicate that ETo would increase by 4.0 % in
response to the 10 % increment of sunshine hours if other meteorological variables remain
constant. Similarly maximum temperature was the next highest with average S of 0.38 which
indicate that ETo would increase by 3.8 % in response to the 10 % increment of maximum
temperature if other meteorological variables remain constant. The sensitivity of ETo to wind
speed, relative humidity and minimum temperature was 0.11, 0.02 and 0.10 on average
respectively.
On monthly time scale, maximum temperature has the highest S in June (0.44). Similarly, wind
speed, sunshine hours, relative humidity and minimum temperature have the maximum S value
in February (0.15), March & October (0.43), October (0.06) and July (0.13) respectively. On
seasonal scale; Belg is more sensitive to both maximum temperature and sunshine hours, but
Tedey are more sensitive to wind speed, kremt is more sensitive to minimum temperature and
bega is more sensitive to both relative humidity and sunshine hours. On cumulative, Belg is more
sensitive to weather parameter than the other.

14
 0.50

0.40

0.30
percent

0.20

0.10

0.00
January February March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec avearge
-0.10
Month
min temp max temp RH WS
SH

Fig. 4:- Sensitivity of ETo to monthly meteorological variables

Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post- monsoon

0.41
0.41
0.40

0.40
0.39

0.38

0.38
0.37
Percentage

0.14

0.13
0.12
0.11

0.10
0.09

0.08
0.08

0.04
0.03
0.01

m i n t em p m ax t em p RH WS SH
-0.01

Weather parameter

Fig, 5:- Sensitivity of ETo to seasonal meteorological variables

15
 5. DISCUSSION
ETo was estimated using the widely used Crop Wat 8 for windows computer programme. During
the entire study period, the average yearly value of the reference evapotranspiration was
1430.15mm. The highest values of ETo are registered where the maximum air temperature has
higher and the minimum air temperature and relative humidity are low. The average seasonal
total ETo varied from 339.96 mm in Tedey to 383.61 mm Bega for the entire study area. The
monthly ETo reached a peak value in May and its magnitude is 135.8 mm. The lowest ETo has
been observed in December (108.6 mm). The amount of water (519.46 mm) evaporates during
March-June as a result of an increase in temperature. During October to June, the reference
evapotranspiration is very high compared to the fallen rainfall (773.02 mm difference) and
rainfall exceeds ETo only during July and August (160.9 mm difference).
The trends in monthly, annual and seasonal ETo were investigated using the MK test and the
magnitudes of trends were estimated using Theil-Sen’s nonparametric test. Statistically
significant increasing trends in monthly, annual and seasonal ETo were obtained during the study
periods (1979-2019). The increases in annual ETo were 2% (28.61 mm per year). Seasonally, the
increment of Belg, Bega, Kremt and Tedey ETo is 1%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.6 % respectively.
Around 66 % of months show the significant increasing trends in maximum air temperature and
around eleven months except November shows significant decreasing trend in minimum
temperature. For annual time step, significant warming of 0.34 0C in magnitude per decade in
maximum temperature. The minimum temperature showed a decrease of about 1.13 0C per
decade year. From the above, it reveals that the night temperature is decreasing at faster rate than
day temperature. Seasonally, the significant increasing trends were found in Belg, Bega and
Tedey seasons in maximum air temperature. However, minimum air temperature showed
significant decreasing trend in all the seasons. This maximum air temperature trend is supported
by previous studies made by The UNDP Climate Change Profile for Ethiopia and Murius Keller
climate risks and development projects. The UNDP report shows that the mean annual
temperature increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade.
The temperature increase has been most rapid from July to September (0.32°C per decade). It is
reported that the average number of hot days per year has increased by 73 (an additional 20% of
days) (McSweeney et al., 2008). Murius (2009) reported that the temperature in Ethiopia
increased at about 0.2°C per decade. On the contrary, Both Murius (2009) and NMA (2006)
report that between 1951 and 2006, annual minimum temperature in Ethiopia increased by about
0.4 and 0.37°C every decade respectively.
This type of upward air temperature trend has both negative and positive effect on sugarcane
production and productivity. Because Low temperatures and moderate water deficits associated
with nitrogen deficiency are the most effective ripening agents (Alexander, 1973). As growth
rates decrease, a lower amount of sugar is used in new tissue formation, and a greater amount of
sucrose is stored (Clements, 1962). Burr et al. (1957) observed a reduction of 84 % in the rate of
sugarcane photosynthesis when air temperature was reduced from 23.0 to 13.6 °C. Waldron et al.
(1967) showed that the photosynthetic efficiency decreased linearly with a decrease in air
temperature in the range from 34 to 5 °C. The effects of air temperature on the photosynthesis
rate and on the efficiency of this process are directly related to crop vegetative development
(Alexander, 1973). To know the cumulative effect of upward air temperature trend on sugarcane

16
production and productive on the surrounding area is negative or positive, it needs further
scientific study.
Rainfall Trend analysis for 50 years with maximum rainfall occurrence in the years 1986 with
the total precipitation of 1284 mm and minimum rainfall in the year 2002 with the total of
around 427 mm was done using the non-parametric statistical analysis method called Mann-
Kendall test. Average rainfall for all these 50 years is 804.83 mm. Annual average is least for the
month of December for (6.75 mm) followed by November (9.08 mm) and January (10.92 mm)
while maximum rainfall occurs in the month of July (202.51 mm) followed by August (193.80
mm) and September (98.64 mm). In the Mann-Kendall test the Zc statistics revealed for seven
months such as January, February, March, May, June, August, and December an evidence of
going downward trend while Zc value is showing positive trend in April, July, September and
November. The only months which shows neither negative nor positive trend is October. In
seasonal and annual, except Tedey season all shows a negative trend although it is non-
significant at all significant level. Therefore it can be concluded that there is evidence of
downward change in the trend of precipitation of the region in these 50 years. Murius (2009)
concluded that Precipitation in Ethiopia remained fairly stable over the last 50 years when
averaged over the country.
This type of trend in sugar plantation has impact both sugar productivity and agricultural practice
especially for land preparation activity. Since high sugar cane growth is maintain in Kremt
season than the other due to natural well distributed application of water. During Tedey season
land preparation activity is started which is highly influenced by rain. If this period is not utilized
well for land preparation activity due to availability of high rainfall; the next very essential
cultural practice like moulding, fertilizer application etc. is affected significantly and then finally
productivity and production will be goes downwards. Water stress, caused by low soil water
availability, influences the photosynthetic rate, causing severe reduction in carbohydrate
synthesis, leaf expansion and internode elongation. This is followed by an increase in the sucrose
content due to reduced demand for sugars in the meristematic tissues (Alexander, 1973).
The decreasing trends in wind speed are observed during July up to October and the upward
trend is shown in the remaining seven months (from November up to May) and on annual scale.
Again, increasing trends in relative humidity was observed only in four months but the upward
value of July is the only monthly value which shows a significant increasing at a significant level
of 5%. The other remaining months both the up and down ward trend is not significant at all
significant level.
The increasing trend of sunshine hours was observed in almost in all months in the area and the
upward trend is significant in 67 percent of the months. Decreasing solar radiation is found to be
a dominant phenomenon in many regions of the world along with increasing temperatures. Many
studies have shown that declining sunshine hours reduces crop yield by weakening
photosynthesis. According to Samui (2003), sharp increase in yield was observed with increase
in sunshine hours for 14 districts of Uttar Pradesh where sugarcane is grown as a major crop.
Clements (1940) concluded that differences in sugar Yield were more influenced by solar
radiation than by air temperature, and cloudy days represented a limiting factor for ripening. In
addition he noted that sucrose levels were higher in areas where solar radiation was more intense
(due to the absence of clouds). So the trend in Wonji plantation area was more favorable for
sugar raping and yield.

17
Further, sensitivity analysis shows that all weather parameters (Sunshine hours, maximum
temperature, minimum Temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) had a positive effect on
ETo change on a monthly and annual basis. By comparing the average sensitivity coefficient (S),
ETo was found to be most sensitivity to sunshine hours followed by maximum temperature,
wind speed, minimum temperature and relative humidity respectively. Therefore; all weather
variable changes produce a positive change in ETo. Change in sunshine hours was found to
produce a large positive effect in change of ETo.

18
 6. CONCLUSIONS
In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the trends in calculated ETo using PM
methods and its meteorological parameters on monthly, annual and seasonal basis using MK test
and Sen Slope estimates. The increasing trends in the monthly ETo series were found in all
months but the upward trend is significant in Feb and October at 5% significant level and
additionally Jan. at 10 % significant level. Similarly significant upward trends in annual and all
seasonal ETo values were observed except Bega at 5 and 10 % significant level.
The increase trend was observed in monthly, annual and seasonal maximum air temperature and
except four months (July, Aug., Nov., and Dec.) and Kremt season, the upward trend was
significant. On the contrary; significant decreasing trend was observed in all months, annual and
all seasonal values of minimum temperature.
However, the wind speed indicated both decreasing and increasing trends in monthly values.
Especially starting from June to October the trend was down ward and it is not significant at all
significant level. But starting from November to May the increasing trend was observed and
three months upward trend were significant.
Trend analysis of relative humidity in monthly scale shows the upward trend in seven months,
(Jan., May, July, Aug, sept, Nov, and dec,) and downward trend in the remaining five months.
Only one month (July) upward trend was significant.
The Zc value of MK Test of precipitation represents both positive and negative trend in the area
although not much significant. Individually months of January, February, March, May, June,
August and December were showing decreasing trend and months of April, July, September,
October and November are depicting negative trend in the Zc value. In annual and seasonal
scale, all; except Tedey, shows a non-significant negative trend. Therefore it can be concluded
that there is evidence of some change in the trend of precipitation of the region in these 50 years
in different months.
The results of sensitivity analysis shows that ETo was found to be most sensitivity to sunshine
hours followed by maximum temperature, wind speed, minimum temperature and then relative
humidity respectively.

19
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