CENTRAL LIMIT

THEOREM
STATISTICS AND PR O BABILITY
 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

• If X is the mean of a random sample of size n taken

from a (large or infinite) population with mean m
and variance s2, then the sampling distribution of Xis
approximately normally distributed with mean
• E( X )=m and variance Var( X )=s2/n when n is
sufficiently large.

• The theorem simply states that if the sample size is

sufficiently large, we can use the normal distribution
to approximate the sampling distribution of X
 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

• The normal approximation in the theorem will

be good if n ³ 30 regardless of the shape
(symmetric or skewed) of the population.

• If n < 30, the approximation is good only if the

population is not too different from the normal.

• If the distribution of the population is normal

then the sampling distribution will also be
exactly normal, no matter how small the size of
the sample.
 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

• With the Central Limit Theorem, we can formulate

the limiting form of the distribution.
• The limiting form of the distribution is

X −µ
Z=
σ n
as n approaches infinity is the standard normal distribution.
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM: EXAMPLE

A random sample of size 100 is taken from a large

population with mean µ=1000 and variance σ2=625.
Approximate the probability of selecting a sample that
satisfies :

a. X > 998
By the CLT, X will be approximately normally distributed
with E(X ) = µ=1000 and Var ( X) = σ2/n =625/100 = 6.25

P(X > 998) = 1− P(X < 998)

998 − 1000
1−𝑃 𝑍 <
6.25
1 – P(Z < -0.8)
1 – 0.2119
0.7881
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM: EXAMPLE

An electrical firm manufactures electric light bulbs that

have a length of life which is normally distributed with
mean and standard deviation equal to 500 and 50
hours, respectively. Find the probability that a random
sample of 15 bulbs will have an average life of less than
475 hours.
Since the distribution of X (= length of life of an electric
light bulb) is normal,
X ~Normal(500,502/15)
The probability that a
⎛ X − 500 475 − 500 ⎞ random sample of 15
P( X < 475) = P⎜⎜ < ⎟⎟ bulbs will have an average
⎝ 50 / 15 50 / 15 ⎠ life of less than 475 hours
= P( Z < −1.94) = 0.0262 is 0.0262
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM: EXAMPLE

The time it takes students in a cooking school to

learn to prepare seafood gumbo is a random
variable with an average of 3.2 hours and a
standard deviation of 1.8 hours. Find the probability
that the average time it will take a class of 36
students to learn to prepare seafood gumbo is
more than 3.1 hours.

X ≈Normal(3.2,1.82/36)
The probability that the
average time it will take a
⎛ X − 3.2 3.1 − 3.2 ⎞
P( X > 3.1) = P⎜⎜ > ⎟⎟ class of 36 students to
⎝ 1.8 / 36 1.8 / 36 ⎠ learn to prepare seafood
= P( Z > −0.33) = 1 − P( Z ≤ −0.33) gumbo is more than 3.1
= 0.6293 hours is 0.6293
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM: EXAMPLE

Suppose that you have a sample of 100 values from a

population with mean µ = 500 and with standard
deviation σ = 80.
What is the probability that the sample mean will be
in the interval (490, 510)?

P(490 < 𝑋/ < 510)

= P(490−500 /(√80 /100)<z< 510−500 /(√80 /100) )
= P(−1.25 < z < 1.25)
= 0.7888.
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION

If X and S2 are the mean and variance,

respectively, of a random sample of size n taken
from a population which is normally distributed with
mean m and variance s2 , then
X −µ
T=
S n
is a random variable having the t - distribution with v = n-1
degrees of freedom.

Notation: T~ tv=n-1
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION

• Comparison between the t-distribution and the

standard normal distribution
1. Both are symmetric about zero
2. Both are bell-shaped, but the t-distribution is
more variable
a. t-values depend on the fluctuation of 2 quantities: X and S2
b. z-values depend only on the changes in X from sample to
sample
3. When the sample size is large, i.e. n ³30, the t-
distribution can be well approximated by the
standard normal distribution.
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION

• Comparison between the t-distribution

and the standard normal distribution
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION

• Area under the curve

Just like any continuous probability distribution,
the probability that a random sample produces a
t-value falling between any two specified values
is equal to the area under the curve of the t-
distribution between any two ordinates
corresponding to the specified values.

a b
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION
Notation: ta is the t-value leaving an area of ain the right-tail
of the t-distribution. That is, if T~t(v) then ta is such that P(T>
ta) = a.

T~t3

2.353
α
v 0.005 0.01 0.025 0.05 0.1

Areas to the right

1 63.656 31.821 12.706 6.314 3.078
P( T > 2.353 ) = 0.05
2 9.925 6.965 4.303 2.920 1.886
3 5.841 4.541 3.182 2.353 1.638
t0.0.5 = 2.353
4 4.604 3.747 2.776 2.132 1.533
5 4.032 3.365 2.571 2.015 1.476
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION

Since the t-distribution is symmetric about zero, t1-a= - ta

1-α

- ta ta

t1-a
 THE T-DISTRIBUTION
§ Examples:
1. Find the following values on the t –table
a. t0.025 when v = 14.
b. t0.99 when v=10.

2. Find k such that P(k < T < 2.807) = 0.945 when T ~ t(23)

3. A manufacturing firm claims that the batteries used in their

electronic games will last an average of 30 hours. To maintain
this average, 16 batteries are tested each month. If the computed
t-value falls between -t0.025 and t0.025 , the firm is satisfied with its
claim. What conclusion should the firm draw Xfrom a sample that
has mean of 27.5 hours and standard deviation S = 5 hours?
Assume the distribution of battery lives to be approximately
normal.