50 gm 250 gm

Date Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast

Oct-17 335769.00 96423.00
Nov-17 286454.00 83549.00
Dec-17 305144.00 92846.00
Jan-18 309927.00 309122.33 804.67 647488.44 0.26% 79372.00 90939.33
Feb-18 307937.00 300508.33 7428.67 55185088.44 2.41% 82213.00 85255.67
Mar-18 324748.00 307669.33 17078.67 291680855.11 5.26% 95951.00 84810.33
Apr-18 341458.00 314204.00 27254.00 742780516.00 7.98% 106892.00 85845.33
May-18 283600.00 324714.33 41114.33 1690388405.44 14.50% 82996.00 95018.67
Jun-18 343901.00 316602.00 27299.00 745235401.00 7.94% 97899.00 95279.67
Jul-18 340109.00 322986.33 17122.67 293185713.78 5.03% 94644.00 95929.00
Aug-18 334831.00 322536.67 12294.33 151150632.11 3.67% 93959.00 91846.33
Sep-18 342655.00 339613.67 3041.33 9249708.44 0.89% 75360.00 95500.67
Oct-18 349759.00 339198.33 10560.67 111527680.44 3.02% 100440.00 87987.67
Nov-18 314784.00 342415.00 27631.00 763472161.00 8.78% 91812.00 89919.67
Dec-18 324621.00 335732.67 11111.67 123469136.11 3.42% 98772.00 89204.00
Jan-19 326238.00 329721.33 3483.33 12133611.11 1.07% 83549.00 97008.00
Feb-19 338392.00 321881.00 16511.00 272613121.00 4.88% 90343.00 91377.67
Mar-19 331375.00 329750.33 1624.67 2639541.78 0.49% 97909.00 90888.00
Apr-19 344907.00 332001.67 12905.33 166547628.44 3.74% 107971.00 90600.33
May-19 315111.00 338224.67 23113.67 534241586.78 7.34% 92217.00 98741.00
Jun-19 373805.00 330464.33 43340.67 1878413387.11 11.59% 106411.00 99365.67
Jul-19 347049.00 344607.67 2441.33 5960108.44 0.70% 96575.00 102199.67
Aug-19 372034.00 345321.67 26712.33 713548752.11 7.18% 104398.00 98401.00
Sep-19 360689.00 364296.00 3607.00 13010449.00 1.00% 79326.00 102461.33
Oct-19 364332.00 359924.00 4408.00 19430464.00 1.21% 104625.00 93433.00
Nov-19 349759.00 365685.00 15926.00 253637476.00 4.55% 102013.00 96116.33
Dec-19 327899.00 358260.00 30361.00 921790321.00 9.26% 99769.00 95321.33
Jan-20 358503.00 347330.00 11173.00 124835929.00 3.12% 91812.00 102135.67
Feb-20 375991.00 345387.00 30604.00 936604816.00 8.14% 100381.00 97864.67
Mar-20 356317.00 354131.00 2186.00 4778596.00 0.61% 105278.00 97320.67
Apr-20 351945.00 363603.67 11658.67 135924508.44 3.31% 110174.00 99157.00
May-20 338829.00 361417.67 22588.67 510247861.78 6.67% 99157.00 105277.67
Jun-20 393478.00 349030.33 44447.67 1975595072.11 11.30% 112011.00 104869.67
Jul-20 354131.00 361417.33 7286.33 53090653.44 2.06% 98545.00 107114.00
Aug-20 400036.00 362146.00 37890.00 1435652100.00 9.47% 112255.00 103237.67
Sep-20 400765.00 382548.33 18216.67 331846944.44 4.55% 88140.00 107603.67
Oct-20 384977.33 99646.67
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

MAD 17370.49 MAD

 MSE 477516116.07 MSE
RMSE 21852.14 RMSE
MAPE 5.012% MAPE

50 gm
450000.00
120000.00
400000.00
350000.00 100000.00
300000.00
80000.00
250000.00
200000.00 60000.00
150000.00
40000.00
100000.00
50000.00 20000.00
0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
Actual Predicted
Ac
 250 gm 1 Kg
error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error
26326.00
23347.00
27125.00
11567.33 133803200.44 14.57% 26005.00 25599.33 405.67 164565.44 1.56%
3042.67 9257820.44 3.70% 25783.00 25492.33 290.67 84487.11 1.13%
11140.67 124114453.78 11.61% 25822.00 26304.33 482.33 232645.44 1.87%
21046.67 442962177.78 19.69% 31050.00 25870.00 5180.00 26832400.00 16.68%
12022.67 144544513.78 14.49% 23568.00 27551.67 3983.67 15869600.11 16.90%
2619.33 6860907.11 2.68% 24762.00 26813.33 2051.33 4207968.44 8.28%
1285.00 1651225.00 1.36% 30736.00 26460.00 4276.00 18284176.00 13.91%
2112.67 4463360.44 2.25% 23568.00 26355.33 2787.33 7769227.11 11.83%
20140.67 405646453.78 26.73% 21383.00 26355.33 4972.33 24724098.78 23.25%
12452.33 155060605.44 12.40% 27422.00 25229.00 2193.00 4809249.00 8.00%
1892.33 3580925.44 2.06% 25656.00 24124.33 1531.67 2346002.78 5.97%
9568.00 91546624.00 9.69% 28856.00 24820.33 4035.67 16286605.44 13.99%
13459.00 181144681.00 16.11% 27373.00 27311.33 61.67 3802.78 0.23%
1034.67 1070535.11 1.15% 28332.00 27295.00 1037.00 1075369.00 3.66%
7021.00 49294441.00 7.17% 26348.00 28187.00 1839.00 3381921.00 6.98%
17370.67 301740060.44 16.09% 31363.00 27351.00 4012.00 16096144.00 12.79%
6524.00 42562576.00 7.07% 26186.00 28681.00 2495.00 6225025.00 9.53%
7045.33 49636721.78 6.62% 26915.00 27965.67 1050.67 1103900.44 3.90%
5624.67 31636875.11 5.82% 31363.00 28154.67 3208.33 10293402.78 10.23%
5997.00 35964009.00 5.74% 26186.00 28154.67 1968.67 3875648.44 7.52%
23135.33 535243648.44 29.16% 22508.00 28154.67 5646.67 31884844.44 25.09%
11192.00 125260864.00 10.70% 28564.00 26685.67 1878.33 3528136.11 6.58%
5896.67 34770677.78 5.78% 28506.00 25752.67 2753.33 7580844.44 9.66%
4447.67 19781738.78 4.46% 29147.00 26526.00 2621.00 6869641.00 8.99%
10323.67 106578093.44 11.24% 30080.00 28739.00 1341.00 1798281.00 4.46%
2516.33 6331933.44 2.51% 31479.00 29244.33 2234.67 4993735.11 7.10%
7957.33 63319153.78 7.56% 28331.00 30235.33 1904.33 3626485.44 6.72%
11017.00 121374289.00 10.00% 32003.00 29963.33 2039.67 4160240.11 6.37%
6120.67 37462560.44 6.17% 28156.00 30604.33 2448.33 5994336.11 8.70%
7141.33 50998641.78 6.38% 28331.00 29496.67 1165.67 1358778.78 4.11%
8569.00 73427761.00 8.70% 32003.00 29496.67 2506.33 6281706.78 7.83%
9017.33 81312300.44 8.03% 28156.00 29496.67 1340.67 1797387.11 4.76%
19463.67 378834320.11 22.08% 25008.00 29496.67 4488.67 20148128.44 17.95%
28389.00

9083.78 MAD 2431.23

 120351192.17 MSE 8240274.50
10970.47 RMSE 2870.59
9.690% MAPE 8.986%

250 gm 1 Kg
120000.00 35000.00

100000.00 30000.00

25000.00
80000.00
20000.00
60000.00
15000.00
40000.00
10000.00
20000.00 5000.00

0.00 0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-1

Actual Predicted Actual Pre

 1 Kg

Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

Actual Predicted
 50 gm 250 gm
Date Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast
Oct-17 335769.00 96423.00
Nov-17 286454.00 83549.00
Dec-17 305144.00 92846.00
Jan-18 309927.00 79372.00
Feb-18 307937.00 82213.00
Mar-18 324748.00 95951.00
Apr-18 341458.00 106892.00
May-18 283600.00 315919.57 32319.57 1044554697.33 11.40% 82996.00 91035.14
Jun-18 343901.00 311879.63 32021.38 1025368456.89 9.31% 97899.00 90030.25
Jul-18 340109.00 312896.13 27212.88 740540565.77 8.00% 94644.00 90214.75
Aug-18 334831.00 319603.00 15228.00 231891984.00 4.55% 93959.00 91601.63
Sep-18 342655.00 323313.88 19341.13 374079116.27 5.64% 75360.00 91740.75
Oct-18 349759.00 327404.88 22354.13 499706904.52 6.39% 100440.00 91239.25
Nov-18 314784.00 332632.63 17848.63 318573414.39 5.67% 91812.00 93517.63
Dec-18 324621.00 331387.13 6766.13 45780447.52 2.08% 98772.00 93000.25
Jan-19 326238.00 329282.50 3044.50 9268980.25 0.93% 83549.00 91985.25
Feb-19 338392.00 334612.25 3779.75 14286510.06 1.12% 90343.00 92054.38
Mar-19 331375.00 333923.63 2548.63 6495489.39 0.77% 97909.00 91109.88
Apr-19 344907.00 332831.88 12075.13 145808643.77 3.50% 107971.00 91518.00
May-19 315111.00 334091.38 18980.38 360254635.14 6.02% 92217.00 93269.50
Jun-19 373805.00 330648.38 43156.63 1862494281.39 11.55% 106411.00 95376.63
Jul-19 347049.00 333654.13 13394.88 179422676.27 3.86% 96575.00 96123.00
Aug-19 372034.00 337687.25 34346.75 1179699235.56 9.23% 104398.00 96718.38
Sep-19 360689.00 343613.88 17075.13 291559893.77 4.73% 79326.00 97421.63
Oct-19 364332.00 347920.25 16411.75 269345538.06 4.50% 104625.00 96893.75
Nov-19 349759.00 351162.75 1403.75 1970514.06 0.40% 102013.00 98679.00
Dec-19 327899.00 353460.75 25561.75 653403063.06 7.80% 99769.00 99192.00
Jan-20 358503.00 351334.75 7168.25 51383808.06 2.00% 91812.00 98166.75
Feb-20 375991.00 356758.75 19232.25 369879440.06 5.12% 100381.00 98116.13
Mar-20 356317.00 357032.00 715.00 511225.00 0.20% 105278.00 97362.38
Apr-20 351945.00 358190.50 6245.50 39006270.25 1.77% 110174.00 98450.25
May-20 338829.00 355679.38 16850.38 283935137.64 4.97% 99157.00 99172.25
Jun-20 393478.00 352946.88 40531.13 1642772093.77 10.30% 112011.00 101651.13
Jul-20 354131.00 356590.13 2459.13 6047295.77 0.69% 98545.00 102574.38
Aug-20 400036.00 357136.63 42899.38 1840356375.39 10.72% 112255.00 102140.88
Sep-20 400765.00 366153.75 34611.25 1197938626.56 8.64% 88140.00 103701.63
Oct-20 371436.50 103242.63
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

MAD 18468.38 MAD

 MSE 524511975.71 MSE
RMSE 22902.23 RMSE
MAPE 5.237% MAPE

50 gm
450000.00
120000.00
400000.00
350000.00 100000.00
300000.00
80000.00
250000.00
200000.00 60000.00
150000.00
40000.00
100000.00
50000.00 20000.00
0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18
Actual Predicted
Ac
 250 gm 1 Kg
error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error
26326.00
23347.00
27125.00
26005.00
25783.00
25822.00
31050.00
8039.14 64627817.88 9.69% 23568.00 26494.00 2926.00 8561476.00 12.42%
7868.75 61917226.56 8.04% 24762.00 26128.25 1366.25 1866639.06 5.52%
4429.25 19618255.56 4.68% 30736.00 25932.75 4803.25 23071210.56 15.63%
2357.38 5557216.89 2.51% 23568.00 26856.38 3288.38 10813410.14 13.95%
16380.75 268328970.56 21.74% 21383.00 26411.75 5028.75 25288326.56 23.52%
9200.75 84653800.56 9.16% 27422.00 25834.00 1588.00 2521744.00 5.79%
1705.63 2909156.64 1.86% 25656.00 26038.88 382.88 146593.27 1.49%
5771.75 33313098.06 5.84% 28856.00 26018.13 2837.88 8053534.52 9.83%
8436.25 71170314.06 10.10% 27373.00 25743.88 1629.13 2654048.27 5.95%
1711.38 2928804.39 1.89% 28332.00 26219.50 2112.50 4462656.25 7.46%
6799.13 46228100.77 6.94% 26348.00 26665.75 317.75 100965.06 1.21%
16453.00 270701209.00 15.24% 31363.00 26117.25 5245.75 27517893.06 16.73%
1052.50 1107756.25 1.14% 26186.00 27091.63 905.63 820156.64 3.46%
11034.38 121757431.64 10.37% 26915.00 27692.00 777.00 603729.00 2.89%
452.00 204304.00 0.47% 31363.00 27628.63 3734.38 13945556.64 11.91%
7679.63 58976640.14 7.36% 26186.00 28342.00 2156.00 4648336.00 8.23%
18095.63 327451644.14 22.81% 22508.00 28008.25 5500.25 30252750.06 24.44%
7731.25 59772226.56 7.39% 28564.00 27400.13 1163.88 1354605.02 4.07%
3334.00 11115556.00 3.27% 28506.00 27429.13 1076.88 1159659.77 3.78%
577.00 332929.00 0.58% 29147.00 27698.88 1448.13 2097066.02 4.97%
6354.75 40382847.56 6.92% 30080.00 27421.88 2658.13 7065628.52 8.84%
2264.88 5129658.77 2.26% 31479.00 27908.63 3570.38 12747577.64 11.34%
7915.63 62657119.14 7.52% 28331.00 28479.13 148.13 21941.02 0.52%
11723.75 137446314.06 10.64% 32003.00 28100.13 3902.88 15232433.27 12.20%
15.25 232.56 0.02% 28156.00 28827.25 671.25 450576.56 2.38%
10359.88 107327010.02 9.25% 28331.00 29533.25 1202.25 1445405.06 4.24%
4029.38 16235862.89 4.09% 32003.00 29504.13 2498.88 6244376.27 7.81%
10114.13 102295524.52 9.01% 28156.00 29941.25 1785.25 3187117.56 6.34%
15561.63 242164172.64 17.66% 25008.00 29817.38 4809.38 23130087.89 19.23%
29183.38

7153.41 MAD 2397.76

 79511114.32 MSE 8552339.27
8916.90 RMSE 2924.44
7.532% MAPE 8.832%

250 gm 1 Kg
120000.00 35000.00

100000.00 30000.00

25000.00
80000.00
20000.00
60000.00
15000.00
40000.00
10000.00
20000.00 5000.00

0.00 0.00
Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-1

Actual Predicted Actual Pre

 1 Kg

Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

Actual Predicted
 MAD 17671.1 MAD 6432.0
MSE 428967346.0 MSE 65299686.5
MAPE 4.912% MAPE 6.278%
RMSE 20711.5 RMSE 8080.8

Slope 67.93 Slope 11.2

Intercept -2613705.45 Intercept -392475.12
50 gm 250 gm
Time period Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast error
Oct-17 335769.00 96423.00
Nov-17 286454.00 83549.00
Dec-17 305144.00 92846.00
Jan-18 309927.00 79372.00
Feb-18 307937.00 82213.00
Mar-18 324748.00 95951.00
Apr-18 341458.00 106892.00
May-18 283600.00 82996.00
Jun-18 343901.00 97899.00
Jul-18 340109.00 94644.00
Aug-18 334831.00 93959.00
Sep-18 342655.00 75360.00
Oct-18 349759.00 100440.00
Nov-18 314784.00 91812.00
Dec-18 324621.00 98772.00
Jan-19 326238.00 83549.00
Feb-19 338392.00 90343.00
Mar-19 331375.00 97909.00
Apr-19 344907.00 107971.00
May-19 315111.00 92217.00
Jun-19 373805.00 106411.00
Jul-19 347049.00 96575.00
Aug-19 372034.00 104398.00
Sep-19 360689.00 79326.00
Oct-19 364332.00 357484.82 6847.18 46883873.95 1.88% 104625.00 97401.68 7223.32
Nov-19 349759.00 359590.65 9831.65 96661341.72 2.81% 102013.00 97748.88 4264.12
Dec-19 327899.00 361628.55 33729.55 1137682543.20 10.29% 99769.00 98084.88 1684.12
Jan-20 358503.00 363734.38 5231.38 27367336.70 1.46% 91812.00 98432.08 6620.08
Feb-20 375991.00 365840.21 10150.79 103038537.62 2.70% 100381.00 98779.28 1601.72
Mar-20 356317.00 367810.18 11493.18 132093186.51 3.23% 105278.00 99104.08 6173.92
Apr-20 351945.00 369916.01 17971.01 322957200.42 5.11% 110174.00 99451.28 10722.72
May-20 338829.00 371953.91 33124.91 1097259662.51 9.78% 99157.00 99787.28 630.28
Jun-20 393478.00 374059.74 19418.26 377068821.43 4.94% 112011.00 100134.48 11876.52
Jul-20 354131.00 376097.64 21966.64 482533272.89 6.20% 98545.00 100470.48 1925.48
Aug-20 400036.00 378203.47 21832.53 476659366.20 5.46% 112255.00 100817.68 11437.32
Sep-20 400765.00 380309.30 20455.70 418435662.49 5.10% 88140.00 101164.88 13024.88
 50 gm 250 gm
120000.00
400000.00
350000.00 100000.00
f(x) = 67.9257625022995 x − 2613705.44656324
f(x) = 11.1965385051487 x − 392
300000.00
80000.00
250000.00
60000.00
200000.00
150000.00 40000.00
100000.00
20000.00
50000.00
0.00
0.00
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 O
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19

50 gm 250
450000.00 120000.00
400000.00
350000.00 100000.00
300000.00 80000.00
250000.00
200000.00 60000.00
150000.00 40000.00
100000.00
50000.00 20000.00
0.00 0.00
Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20

Actual Predicted Actual

 MAD 2014.9
MSE 6777758.6
MAPE 6.764%
RMSE 2603.4

Slope 2.25
Intercept -71157.8
250 gm 1 Kg
Sq error %Error Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error
26326.00
23347.00
27125.00
26005.00
25783.00
25822.00
31050.00
23568.00
24762.00
30736.00
23568.00
21383.00
27422.00
25656.00
28856.00
27373.00
28332.00
26348.00
31363.00
26186.00
26915.00
31363.00
26186.00
22508.00
52176351.82 6.90% 28564.00 27254.95 1309.05 1713611.90 4.58%
18182719.37 4.18% 28506.00 27324.70 1181.30 1395469.69 4.14%
2836260.17 1.69% 29147.00 27392.20 1754.80 3079323.04 6.02%
43825459.21 7.21% 30080.00 27461.95 2618.05 6854185.80 8.70%
2565506.96 1.60% 31479.00 27531.70 3947.30 15581177.29 12.54%
38117288.17 5.86% 28331.00 27596.95 734.05 538829.40 2.59%
114976724.20 9.73% 32003.00 27666.70 4336.30 18803497.69 13.55%
397252.88 0.64% 28156.00 27734.20 421.80 177915.24 1.50%
141051727.31 10.60% 28331.00 27803.95 527.05 277781.70 1.86%
3707473.23 1.95% 32003.00 27871.45 4131.55 17069705.40 12.91%
130812288.78 10.19% 28156.00 27941.20 214.80 46139.04 0.76%
169647499.01 14.78% 25008.00 28010.95 3002.95 9017708.70 12.01%
 250 gm 1 Kg
35000.00

30000.00
x) = 11.1965385051487 x − 392475.122243451 25000.00 f(x) = 2.25422600847154 x − 71157.7969448155

20000.00

15000.00

10000.00

5000.00

0.00
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19

250 gm 1 Kg
35000.00
30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20
Actual Predicted Actual Predicted
Apr-19 Jul-19

-20 Jun-20 Aug-20

edicted
 alpha 0.45 alpha

MAD 17082.8 MAD

MSE 512178221.7 MSE
MAPE 5.007% MAPE
RMSE 22631.4 RMSE

50 gm 250 gm
Time period Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast
Oct-17 335769.00 335769.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 96423.00 96423.00
Nov-17 286454.00 335769.00 49315.00 2431969225.00 17.22% 83549.00 96423.00
Dec-17 305144.00 313577.25 8433.25 71119705.56 2.76% 92846.00 95006.86
Jan-18 309927.00 309782.29 144.71 20941.71 0.05% 79372.00 94769.17
Feb-18 307937.00 309847.41 1910.41 3649659.20 0.62% 82213.00 93075.48
Mar-18 324748.00 308987.72 15760.28 248386284.82 4.85% 95951.00 91880.60
Apr-18 341458.00 316079.85 25378.15 644050575.70 7.43% 106892.00 92328.35
May-18 283600.00 327500.02 43900.02 1927211462.03 15.48% 82996.00 93930.35
Jun-18 343901.00 307745.01 36155.99 1307255673.73 10.51% 97899.00 92727.57
Jul-18 340109.00 324015.21 16093.79 259010236.31 4.73% 94644.00 93296.43
Aug-18 334831.00 331257.41 3573.59 12770525.69 1.07% 93959.00 93444.66
Sep-18 342655.00 332865.53 9789.47 95833781.15 2.86% 75360.00 93501.24
Oct-18 349759.00 337270.79 12488.21 155955392.42 3.57% 100440.00 91505.70
Nov-18 314784.00 342890.48 28106.48 789974466.71 8.93% 91812.00 92488.48
Dec-18 324621.00 330242.57 5621.57 31602009.17 1.73% 98772.00 92414.06
Jan-19 326238.00 327712.86 1474.86 2175216.56 0.45% 83549.00 93113.44
Feb-19 338392.00 327049.17 11342.83 128659705.16 3.35% 90343.00 92061.35
Mar-19 331375.00 332153.45 778.45 605977.58 0.23% 97909.00 91872.33
Apr-19 344907.00 331803.15 13103.85 171711013.54 3.80% 107971.00 92536.36
May-19 315111.00 337699.88 22588.88 510257490.56 7.17% 92217.00 94234.17
Jun-19 373805.00 327534.88 46270.12 2140923644.90 12.38% 106411.00 94012.28
Jul-19 347049.00 348356.44 1307.44 1709389.26 0.38% 96575.00 95376.14
Aug-19 372034.00 347768.09 24265.91 588834394.12 6.52% 104398.00 95508.02
Sep-19 360689.00 358687.75 2001.25 4005003.84 0.55% 79326.00 96485.92
Oct-19 364332.00 359588.31 4743.69 22502574.06 1.30% 104625.00 94598.32
Nov-19 349759.00 361722.97 11963.97 143136618.92 3.42% 102013.00 95701.26
Dec-19 327899.00 356339.18 28440.18 808844090.80 8.67% 99769.00 96395.55
Jan-20 358503.00 343541.10 14961.90 223858408.51 4.17% 91812.00 96766.63
Feb-20 375991.00 350273.96 25717.04 661366362.79 6.84% 100381.00 96221.62
Mar-20 356317.00 361846.63 5529.63 30576760.22 1.55% 105278.00 96679.15
Apr-20 351945.00 359358.29 7413.29 54956929.82 2.11% 110174.00 97625.03
May-20 338829.00 356022.31 17193.31 295609969.62 5.07% 99157.00 99005.41
Jun-20 393478.00 348285.32 45192.68 2042378192.40 11.49% 112011.00 99022.09
Jul-20 354131.00 368622.03 14491.03 209989858.02 4.09% 98545.00 100450.87
Aug-20 400036.00 362101.06 37934.94 1439059312.75 9.48% 112255.00 100241.22
Sep-20 400765.00 379171.79 21593.21 466266907.69 5.39% 88140.00 101562.74
Oct-20
Nov-20
 Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

50 gm
Actual Predicted
120000.00
450000.00

400000.00 100000.00

350000.00 80000.00
300000.00
60000.00
250000.00
40000.00
200000.00

150000.00 20000.00

100000.00 0.00
d 0 1 0
50000.00 rio 04 10 16
pe 43 43 43
e
m
0.00
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Ti
 0.11 alpha 0.09

7691.2 MAD 2100.5

90744293.5 MSE 7483989.4
8.214% MAPE 7.653%
9526.0 RMSE 2735.7

250 gm 1 Kg
error Sq error %Error Actual Forecast error Sq error %Error
0.00 0.00 0.00% 26326.00 26326.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
12874.00 165739876.00 15.41% 23347.00 26326.00 2979.00 8874441.00 12.76%
2160.86 4669315.94 2.33% 27125.00 26057.89 1067.11 1138723.75 3.93%
15397.17 237072702.35 19.40% 26005.00 26153.93 148.93 22180.12 0.57%
10862.48 117993411.05 13.21% 25783.00 26140.53 357.53 127824.99 1.39%
4070.40 16568117.79 4.24% 25822.00 26108.35 286.35 81995.66 1.11%
14563.65 212099953.90 13.62% 31050.00 26082.58 4967.42 24675286.75 16.00%
10934.35 119560007.59 13.17% 23568.00 26529.65 2961.65 8771343.97 12.57%
5171.43 26743673.71 5.28% 24762.00 26263.10 1501.10 2253293.37 6.06%
1347.57 1815948.81 1.42% 30736.00 26128.00 4608.00 21233676.68 14.99%
514.34 264544.19 0.55% 23568.00 26542.72 2974.72 8848951.63 12.62%
18141.24 329104539.93 24.07% 21383.00 26274.99 4891.99 23931605.89 22.88%
8934.30 79821673.55 8.90% 27422.00 25834.71 1587.29 2519474.96 5.79%
676.48 457618.61 0.74% 25656.00 25977.57 321.57 103407.45 1.25%
6357.94 40423364.51 6.44% 28856.00 25948.63 2907.37 8452806.39 10.08%
9564.44 91478435.18 11.45% 27373.00 26210.29 1162.71 1351889.08 4.25%
1718.35 2952719.86 1.90% 28332.00 26314.94 2017.06 4068547.02 7.12%
6036.67 36441388.05 6.17% 26348.00 26496.47 148.47 22043.87 0.56%
15434.64 238228005.36 14.30% 31363.00 26483.11 4879.89 23813332.91 15.56%
2017.17 4068988.82 2.19% 26186.00 26922.30 736.30 542136.94 2.81%
12398.72 153728148.76 11.65% 26915.00 26856.03 58.97 3477.16 0.22%
1198.86 1437257.85 1.24% 31363.00 26861.34 4501.66 20264946.26 14.35%
8889.98 79031791.24 8.52% 26186.00 27266.49 1080.49 1167456.58 4.13%
17159.92 294462698.44 21.63% 22508.00 27169.25 4661.25 21727205.25 20.71%
10026.68 100534216.46 9.58% 28564.00 26749.73 1814.27 3291564.82 6.35%
6311.74 39838074.04 6.19% 28506.00 26913.02 1592.98 2537594.80 5.59%
3373.45 11380161.27 3.38% 29147.00 27056.39 2090.61 4370669.07 7.17%
4954.63 24548358.23 5.40% 30080.00 27244.54 2835.46 8039828.95 9.43%
4159.38 17300436.31 4.14% 31479.00 27499.73 3979.27 15834572.89 12.64%
8598.85 73940179.93 8.17% 28331.00 27857.87 473.13 223855.57 1.67%
12548.97 157476757.44 11.39% 32003.00 27900.45 4102.55 16830930.74 12.82%
151.59 22978.67 0.15% 28156.00 28269.68 113.68 12922.67 0.40%
12988.91 168711850.24 11.60% 28331.00 28259.45 71.55 5119.84 0.25%
1905.87 3632332.06 1.93% 32003.00 28265.89 3737.11 13966015.92 11.68%
12013.78 144330853.70 10.70% 28156.00 28602.23 446.23 199118.43 1.58%
13422.74 180169892.22 15.23% 25008.00 28562.07 3554.07 12631388.44 14.21%
 250 gm
Actual Predicted
120000.00 35000.00

100000.00 30000.00

80000.00 25000.00

60000.00 20000.00

40000.00 15000.00

20000.00 10000.00

0.00
d 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 6 5 6 7 9 0 1 1 2 3 5000.00
rio 04 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 77 83 89 95 01
pe 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44
e 0.00
m
Ti Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
 0.1 5.6
0.2 5.27
0.3 5.14
0.4 5.04
0.5 5.02
0.6 5.1
0.7 5.3
0.8 5.56

Chart Title
6

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Column X Column Y
 1 Kg
Actual Predicted
35000.00

30000.00

25000.00

20000.00

15000.00

10000.00

5000.00

0.00
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20
 5 6 7

mn Y
 alpha 0.36
beta 0.1
MAD 17426.5
MSE 506756707.1
MAPE 5.122%
RMSE 22511.3

50 gm
Time period Actual Level Trend Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual
Oct-17 335769.00 335769.00 0.00 335769.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 96423.00
Nov-17 286454.00 318015.60 -1775.34 335769.00 49315.00 2431969225.00 17.22% 83549.00
Dec-17 305144.00 312245.61 -2174.81 316240.26 11096.26 123126985.99 3.64% 92846.00
Jan-18 309927.00 310019.03 -2179.98 310070.80 143.80 20678.74 0.05% 79372.00
Feb-18 307937.00 307874.31 -2176.46 307839.05 97.95 9594.11 0.03% 82213.00
Mar-18 324748.00 312555.91 -1490.65 305697.86 19050.14 362907975.55 5.87% 95951.00
Apr-18 341458.00 322006.64 -396.51 311065.26 30392.74 923718816.00 8.90% 106892.00
May-18 283600.00 307926.48 -1764.88 321610.13 38010.13 1444770172.47 13.40% 82996.00
Jun-18 343901.00 319747.79 -406.26 306161.61 37739.39 1424261713.87 10.97% 97899.00
Jul-18 340109.00 326817.82 341.37 319341.53 20767.47 431287796.90 6.11% 94644.00
Aug-18 334831.00 329921.04 617.56 327159.19 7671.81 58856675.44 2.29% 93959.00
Sep-18 342655.00 334900.50 1053.75 330538.60 12116.40 146807230.20 3.54% 75360.00
Oct-18 349759.00 340923.96 1550.72 335954.25 13804.75 190571185.93 3.95% 100440.00
Nov-18 314784.00 332506.03 553.85 342474.68 27690.68 766773507.67 8.80% 91812.00
Dec-18 324621.00 330021.89 250.05 333059.88 8438.88 71214778.59 2.60% 98772.00
Jan-19 326238.00 328819.72 104.83 330271.94 4033.94 16272664.70 1.24% 83549.00
Feb-19 338392.00 332332.83 445.66 328924.55 9467.45 89632572.04 2.80% 90343.00
Mar-19 331375.00 332273.24 395.13 332778.49 1403.49 1969790.77 0.42% 97909.00
Apr-19 344907.00 337074.28 835.72 332668.37 12238.63 149784102.02 3.55% 107971.00
May-19 315111.00 329702.36 14.96 337910.00 22799.00 519794396.66 7.24% 92217.00
Jun-19 373805.00 345588.88 1602.12 329717.32 44087.68 1943723524.78 11.79% 106411.00
Jul-19 347049.00 347139.88 1597.00 347191.00 142.00 20164.40 0.04% 96575.00
Aug-19 372034.00 357123.85 2435.70 348736.89 23297.11 542755547.90 6.26% 104398.00
Sep-19 360689.00 359966.15 2476.36 359559.55 1129.45 1275663.37 0.31% 79326.00
Oct-19 364332.00 363122.73 2544.38 362442.51 1889.49 3570167.82 0.52% 104625.00
Nov-19 349759.00 359940.19 1971.69 365667.11 15908.11 253067955.06 4.55% 102013.00
Dec-19 327899.00 349667.24 747.23 361911.88 34012.88 1156876061.38 10.37% 99769.00
Jan-20 358503.00 353326.34 1038.41 350414.47 8088.53 65424307.80 2.26% 91812.00
Feb-20 375991.00 362150.20 1816.96 354364.76 21626.24 467694467.35 5.75% 100381.00
Mar-20 356317.00 361213.10 1541.55 363967.16 7650.16 58524979.18 2.15% 105278.00
Apr-20 351945.00 358863.18 1152.41 362754.66 10809.66 116848676.35 3.07% 110174.00
May-20 338829.00 352388.41 389.69 360015.59 21186.59 448871406.14 6.25% 99157.00
Jun-20 393478.00 367430.07 1854.88 352778.10 40699.90 1656481620.73 10.34% 112011.00
Jul-20 354131.00 363829.53 1309.34 369284.95 15153.95 229642212.12 4.28% 98545.00
Aug-20 400036.00 377701.84 2565.64 365138.87 34897.13 1217809645.36 8.72% 112255.00
Sep-20 400765.00 387646.58 3303.55 380267.48 20497.52 420148486.68 5.11% 88140.00
Oct-20
Nov-20
 Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

50 gm
Actual Predicted
450000.00 120000.00

400000.00 100000.00
350000.00
80000.00
300000.00
60000.00
250000.00

200000.00 40000.00

150000.00 20000.00
100000.00
0.00
50000.00 d 0 1
rio 04 10
pe 43 43
0.00 e
m
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Ti
 alpha 0.17
beta 0.1
MAD 7817.5
MSE 93425488.7
MAPE 8.369%
RMSE 9665.7

250 gm 1 Kg
Level Trend Forecast error Sq error %Error Actual Level Trend
96423.00 0.00 96423.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 26326.00 26326.00 0.00
94234.42 -218.86 96423.00 12874.00 165739876.00 15.41% 23347.00 26177.05 -14.90
93816.74 -238.74 94015.56 1169.56 1367875.27 1.26% 27125.00 26210.30 -10.08
91162.98 -480.24 93578.00 14206.00 201810319.68 17.90% 26005.00 26190.46 -11.06
89242.88 -624.23 90682.73 8469.73 71736396.02 10.30% 25783.00 26159.58 -13.04
89865.15 -499.58 88618.65 7332.35 53763336.68 7.64% 25822.00 26130.31 -14.66
92345.07 -201.63 89365.57 17526.43 307175657.91 16.40% 31050.00 26362.37 10.01
90588.37 -357.14 92143.44 9147.44 83675594.06 11.02% 23568.00 26232.16 -4.01
91534.76 -226.78 90231.24 7667.76 58794588.16 7.83% 24762.00 26154.84 -11.34
91875.10 -170.07 91307.97 3336.03 11129072.43 3.52% 30736.00 26373.12 11.62
92088.20 -131.75 91705.03 2253.97 5080393.02 2.40% 23568.00 26243.91 -2.46
89135.05 -413.89 91956.45 16596.45 275442132.89 22.02% 21383.00 25998.52 -26.76
90713.36 -214.67 88721.16 11718.84 137331207.87 11.67% 27422.00 26044.28 -19.50
90721.95 -192.35 90498.69 1313.31 1724782.34 1.43% 25656.00 26006.33 -21.35
91930.81 -52.23 90529.61 8242.39 67937048.56 8.34% 28856.00 26128.54 -6.99
90462.56 -193.83 91878.59 8329.59 69382033.79 9.97% 27373.00 26184.11 -0.74
90281.36 -192.57 90268.73 74.27 5516.14 0.08% 28332.00 26290.81 10.01
91418.23 -59.62 90088.79 7820.21 61155695.97 7.99% 26348.00 26303.18 10.24
94182.71 222.79 91358.60 16612.40 275971746.26 15.39% 31363.00 26565.90 35.49
94033.45 185.58 94405.50 2188.50 4789525.62 2.37% 26186.00 26580.62 33.41
96291.67 392.85 94219.04 12191.96 148643947.90 11.46% 26915.00 26629.08 34.92
96665.90 390.99 96684.52 109.52 11994.27 0.11% 31363.00 26898.95 58.41
98304.88 515.78 97056.89 7341.11 53891960.30 7.03% 26186.00 26918.80 54.56
95506.57 184.38 98820.66 19494.66 380041744.59 24.58% 22508.00 26750.08 32.23
97209.73 336.25 95690.94 8934.06 79817385.19 8.54% 28564.00 26871.40 41.14
98305.38 412.19 97545.99 4467.01 19954211.56 4.38% 28506.00 26992.21 49.11
98896.31 430.07 98717.57 1051.43 1105500.97 1.05% 29147.00 27146.60 59.63
98048.94 302.32 99326.38 7514.38 56465941.45 8.18% 30080.00 27349.92 74.00
98696.32 336.83 98351.26 2029.74 4119842.78 2.02% 31479.00 27626.68 94.28
100094.77 442.99 99033.14 6244.86 38998216.25 5.93% 28331.00 27751.46 97.33
102175.92 606.81 100537.76 9636.24 92857094.16 8.75% 32003.00 28056.50 118.10
102166.36 545.17 102782.73 3625.73 13145912.50 3.66% 28156.00 28173.67 118.01
104292.44 703.26 102711.53 9299.47 86480232.72 8.30% 28331.00 28293.64 118.20
103899.08 593.60 104995.70 6450.70 41611489.30 6.55% 32003.00 28591.40 136.16
105812.27 725.56 104492.68 7762.32 60253651.41 6.91% 28156.00 28698.98 133.30
103410.20 412.80 106537.83 18397.83 338480180.42 20.87% 25008.00 28641.07 114.18
 250 gm 1 Kg
Actual Predicted Actual
120000.00 35000.00

100000.00 30000.00

80000.00 25000.00

60000.00
20000.00
40000.00
15000.00
20000.00
10000.00
0.00
d 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 6 5 6 7 9 0 1 1 2 3 5000.00
rio 04 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 77 83 89 95 01
pe 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44
e 0.00
m
Ti Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19
alpha 0.05
beta 0.1
MAD 2094.1
MSE 7499032.6
MAPE 7.615%
RMSE 2738.4

1 Kg
Forecast error Sq error %Error
26326.00 0.00 0.00 0.00%
26326.00 2979.00 8874441.00 12.76%
26162.16 962.85 927070.49 3.55%
26200.22 195.22 38109.47 0.75%
6
26179.40 396.40 157132.00 1.54%
26146.54 324.54 105326.21 1.26% 5
26115.65 4934.35 24347795.60 15.89%
26372.38 2804.38 7864541.97 11.90% 4
26228.15 1466.15 2149591.17 5.92%
3
26143.50 4592.50 21091069.60 14.94%
26384.74 2816.74 7934044.96 11.95% 2
26241.44 4858.44 23604466.82 22.72%
1
25971.76 1450.24 2103182.06 5.29%
26024.77 368.77 135992.71 1.44% 0
25984.98 2871.02 8242728.63 9.95% 1 2
26121.54 1251.46 1566147.07 4.57%
26183.38 2148.62 4616573.35 7.58%
26300.82 47.18 2226.26 0.18%
26313.42 5049.58 25498271.17 16.10%
26601.39 415.39 172547.62 1.59%
26614.03 300.97 90581.20 1.12%
26664.00 4699.00 22080602.14 14.98%
26957.36 771.36 595001.68 2.95%
26973.35 4465.35 19939369.91 19.84%
26782.31 1781.69 3174402.84 6.24%
26912.54 1593.46 2539123.19 5.59%
27041.32 2105.68 4433903.90 7.22%
27206.23 2873.77 8258527.07 9.55%
27423.93 4055.07 16443625.20 12.88%
27720.96 610.04 372151.11 2.15%
27848.79 4154.21 17257470.53 12.98%
28174.60 18.60 345.92 0.07%
28291.68 39.32 1546.39 0.14%
28411.85 3591.15 12896392.10 11.22%
28727.56 571.56 326683.24 2.03%
28832.29 3824.29 14625157.81 15.29%
 1 Kg
Actual Predicted

18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20

 0.1 5.6
0.2 5.27
0.3 5.14
0.4 5.04
0.5 5.02
0.6 5.1
0.7 5.3
0.8 5.56

Chart Title
6

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Column AD Column AE
 50 gm 250 gm
MAD MSE RMSE MAPE MAD MSE RMSE
3MA 17370.49 477516116.07 21852.14 5.01% 9083.78 120351192.17 10970.47
7MA 18468.38 524511975.71 22902.23 5.24% 7153.41 79511114.32 8916.90
Trend 17671.07 428967345.97 20711.53 4.91% 6432.04 65299686.47 8080.82
ES 17082.76 512178221.72 22631.35 5.01% 7691.15 90744293.49 9525.98
Holts 17426.51 506756707.12 22511.26 5.12% 7817.51 93425488.70 9665.69

Analysis:
Currently the company is using 3 period moving average for forecasting, above mentioned is a summary of calc
period moving average, trend, exponential smoothening and holts.
can clearly observe through MAPE of all methods that the current 3 period moving average which the company
method.
For all sizes trend analysis is giving lowest MAPE. Hence, trend Analysis method and exponential smoothening m
than 3 period MA and can be used for forecasting.
m 1 Kg
MAPE MAD MSE RMSE MAPE
9.69% 2431.23 8240274.50 2870.59 8.99%
7.53% 2397.76 8552339.27 2924.44 8.83%
6.28% 2014.92 6777758.63 2603.41 6.76%
8.21% 2100.49 7483989.42 2735.69 7.65%
8.37% 2094.12 7499032.64 2738.44 7.61%

oned is a summary of calculation as per other methods namely 7

We
erage which the company is using currently is not the optimum

xponential smoothening method gives comparatively better result