D1a Inception 03 Pub

PREPARED FOR:
The World Bank Group (WBG)
Technical Report
Somalia: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage

Assessment for Kismayo and Garowe
Selection # 1278839
D1-a Inception Report
FINAL Dated 26th May 2022

PREPARED BY THE JOINT VENTURE:
In Collaboration with IUAV, the University of Venice

Department of Architecture and Arts
Somalia: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage Assessment for Kismayo and Garowe
Selection No. 1278839
Contents
CONTENTS ...............................................................................................................................................II
LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. IV
PROJECT CONTEXT..................................................................................................................................6
PROJECT BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................ 6
PROJECT OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................... 7
PROJECT CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 7
STUDY AREAS .................................................................................................................. 8
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS .............................................................................................. 11
Kismayo ............................................................................................................................................... 11
Disaster risk profile ................................................................................................................. 11
Governance ............................................................................................................................. 11
Demographics and Urban Growth ........................................................................................... 12
Land Use ................................................................................................................................. 13
Facilities .................................................................................................................................. 14
Garowe ................................................................................................................................................. 15
Disaster risk profile ................................................................................................................. 15
Governance ............................................................................................................................. 15
Demographics and Urban Growth ........................................................................................... 16
Land Use ................................................................................................................................. 18
Facilities .................................................................................................................................. 19
PHYSICAL SETTINGS.......................................................................................................... 20
Kismayo ............................................................................................................................................... 20
Garowe ................................................................................................................................................. 21
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE CAUSES OF THE FLOOD ISSUES......................................................... 22
Kismayo ............................................................................................................................................... 22
Garowe ................................................................................................................................................. 23
PRELIMINARY VULNERABILITY ISSUES ....................................................................................... 24
Kismayo ............................................................................................................................................... 24
Garowe ................................................................................................................................................. 24
DETAILED METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................26

TECHNICAL APPROACH ....................................................................................................... 26
Development of Detailed Digital Terrain Models .................................................................................. 28
ii | I n c e p t i o n R e p o r t
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 28
Proposed Approach ................................................................................................................ 28
Reconstruct Appropriate Rainfall Model Inputs .................................................................................... 32
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 32
Identify Sea Level Data for Kismayo .................................................................................................... 34
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 34
Data analysis and mapping to identify population and critical assets at risk........................................ 37
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 37
Urban Flood Modelling and Flood Risk Analysis .................................................................................. 43
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 43
Flood Resilience Planning and Urban Drainage Study ......................................................................... 49
Project Needs.......................................................................................................................... 49
DATA REQUIREMENTS AND LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................57

LIST OF DOCUMENTS ......................................................................................................... 57
LIST OF DATA................................................................................................................. 58
GAP FILLING STRATEGY ...................................................................................................... 64
DETAILED WORK PLAN AND DELIVERABLES ........................................................................................65

TEAM’S ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE ......................................................................................... 65
Hydro Nova (HN) .................................................................................................................... 65
Terre Solidali (TS) ................................................................................................................... 65
International University Architecture Venice (IUAV) ................................................................ 65
WORK PLAN .................................................................................................................. 66
Task 1: Literature review for Kismayo and Garowe, Data Collection and Characterization of the Area of
Interest ................................................................................................................................................. 68
Task 2: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage Analysis for Kismayo and Garowe ..................... 69
Task 3: Identification of Types of Measures to Enhances Urban Flood Resilience for Kismayo .......... 71
SCHEDULE OF DELIVERABLES ................................................................................................ 74
ANNEX 1: SAMPLE OUTPUTS ................................................................................................................75
iii | I n c e p t i o n R e p o r t
List of Acronyms
AOI Area of Interest
DTM Digital Terrain Model
EAU East Africa University
ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FOSS Free and Open-Source Software
GCMs General Circulation Models
GCPs Ground Control Points
GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
GIS Geographic Information System
GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation
GLOSS Global Sea Level Observing System
GSD ground sampling distance
GTEC Garowe Teachers Education College
HWSD Harmonized World Soil Database
IDF Intensity, Depth, Frequency
IDP Internal Displaced Person
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MCH Medical Center Hospital
MoH Ministry of Health
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NGOs Non-Governmental Organization
NUWACO Nugal Water Company
iv | I n c e p t i o n R e p o r t
PPP Public Private Partnership
SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems
SWALIM Somali Water and Land Information Management
SWM Solid Waste Management
TMPA TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis
TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
UNCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund
UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services
WHO World Health Organization
v|Inception Report
Project Context
Project Background
Somalia is highly vulnerable to climate change which has intensified flooding and droughts.
Approximately 70 percent of the population is engaged in agro-pastoralism, pastoralism and
subsistence agriculture as livelihood options.1 Climate change vulnerability is compounded by the
fact that the country is coastal, low lying, and impacted by conflict. Somalia is highly prone to
hydro-meteorological hazards, especially droughts and flooding whose intensity and frequency
have increased since the late 1990s/early 2000s. Flooding has emerged as a recurrent and
increasingly damaging hazard, especially along the major rivers and in densely populated urban
areas. In late 2019, parts of Somalia experienced some of the worst flooding in the country’s recent
history. The flooding affected more than a half million people across 17 districts in the three states
of Jubbaland, Hirshabelle, and Southwest, and displaced an estimated 370,000 people from their
homes.2 In the 2020 rainy season, again close to one million people have reportedly been affected
and 650,000 people have been displaced.3 Climate change impacts have resulted in increased
numbers of the rural population migrating to urban centers, accelerating urbanization in the
country.
As Somalia has failed to keep pace with rapid urbanization, its cities were becoming more fragile
and further threatened the country’s stability. As Somali cities grew rapidly, the absence of
adequate planning and uneven, contested governance risked stunting the potential development
and economic growth Somali cities could generate. A joint need’s assessment undertaken by the
World Bank and the United Nations in 2006 and updated in 2011, estimated that USD 1.12 billion
was required for immediate priorities in the transport and urban infrastructure sectors. Unplanned
growth was resulting in slum expansion and environmental degradation. Basic public goods like
roads, water and sewer systems, and access to the power grid were complicated by unplanned
growth. Settlement patterns were typically highly segregated by ethnic groups/clans. Meanwhile,
cities were receiving large waves of forcibly displaced people and other rural-urban migrants,
which risked shifting clan dynamics in ways that were destabilizing. The rights of urban Internally
Displaced Persons (IDPs) were contested and their settlements were often cut off from basic
services. Poor and marginalized groups, more broadly, were often excluded from access to land
and basic services. And property disputes in neighborhoods where real estate was a prized and
1
UNDP, 2018.
2
Government of Somalia and World Bank (2020). Somalia 2019 Floods Impact and Needs Assessment
3
UNHCR (2020). Floods drive over 650,000 Somalis from their homes in 2020. Briefing Note.
6|Inception Report
scarce commodity were a major source of violence and communal tension. As promising as
Somalia’s cities economic successes had been, the risks of targeted political violence, communal
clashes, and terrorist attacks made them vulnerable.
Somalia Urban Resilience Project, phase two (SURP-II) strategically used transport infrastructure
as an entry point to advance the urban resilience agenda. The Project supports participatory
decision-making processes to identify key urban investments that contribute to fostering social
cohesion and supporting infrastructure that benefits both host communities and the displaced.
Project Objectives
The overall objective of the assignment is to assess the urban flood risk of the cities of Kismayo and
Garowe, to inform a dialogue between World Bank and the Government of Somalia and help
identifying possibilities to enhance urban flood risk reduction and city-wide stormwater drainage.
More specifically, the scope of work is based on the following objectives:
• Through extensive data collection, build on existing baseline data and information, and prepare a
comprehensive description of the physical and built environment of Kismayo and Garowe;
• By analyzing and assessing the urban flood risks and the existing stormwater drainage system for
Kismayo and Garowe, produce flood and associated probability data sets and maps, identifying areas
most at risk (“hotspots”); and
• Identify priority areas and types of measures that may improve stormwater drainage and reduce
urban flood risk. Such possible interventions should be generic in the sense that they illustrate a type
of measure but do not include technical analyses or designs.
This inception report aims at (i) further elaborate the study’s work plan and methodology, (ii)
further elaborate on the project’s deliverables, data requirements and information gaps and (iii)
provide a basis for an inception discussion with key stakeholders located in Gorowe and Kismayo.
The report provides background, preliminary, information related to the socio-economic conditions
of the two cities along with an initial appreciation of the root causes of the urban flooding. Such
level of detail, derived from the review of a number of high-level studies4, was introduced with the
aim of giving an initial appraisal of local conditions expected to drive both the data collection
phases and the methodological approach in general.
Project Concepts and Methodology

The Study, which officially kicked off in March 2022, aims at providing options for stormwater
drainage and flood risk reduction to improve the government’s understanding of the urban
4
i.e. UNOPS Pre-feasibility study on Kismayo, UN-HABITAT master plans for the two cities…
7|Inception Report
development challenges related to flood risk and stormwater drainage and provide a basis for the
city authorities to develop engineering designs.
To achieve its objectives, this Study will implement three separate tasks. Task 1 and 2, which aim
at reviewing available literature, collect data characterize the areas of interest and assess the urban
flood risk and stormwater drainage system, are common to both cities of Kismayo and Garowe.
Task 3, which aim at identifying and prioritizing investment options for urban flood resilience, will be
develop only for the city of Kismayo.
During the months of April and May, work will primarily focus on collecting data and build the basic
layers required by the study (i.e., topography, urban footprints, hydrology, and geomorphology).
Given the lack of up-to-date city plans and topographic information, significant resources are
devolved in producing a detailed digital elevation model and urban footprint map of the two cities.
This is achieved by the mean of acquiring very high-resolution (<0.5-meter horizontal accuracy)
and recent (i.e. from 2022) satellite imageries and adopt innovative remote sensing technologies to
derive accurate digital elevation model and urban footprints for the two cities.
From June to September, the focus will be on studying the flood risks and develop flood hazard
and vulnerability maps. Such results will be achieved with the aid of hydrologic and surface water
flood routing numerical models. The results of this part of the study and all related layers and
datasets will be summarized in two separate 'Assessment Reports on Urban Flood Risk and
Stormwater Drainage” (one for Garowe and one for Kismayo).
The new set of layers and analytical results will be used to drive the conceptualization of various
options for addressing the urban flooding issue in Kismayo. This preliminary identification of
options and intervention measures will be discussed, in Kismayo, during a Stakeholder Reflection
Workshop tentatively scheduled for early October 2022. The workshop will aim at gathering
consensus among the stakeholder on the most viable option and fine tune a toolbox of possible
intervention measures that might realistically work for Kismayo.
From October 2022 until February 2022, work will focus on detailing the solution and provide a
basis for the city authorities to develop engineering detailed designs. The project is expected to
close in March 2023 with a final workshop.
Study Areas
The Area of Interest (AOI) includes the entire city of Kismayo and Garowe as well as city
surroundings that fall within the drainage catchment. The two following images provide an overview
of the preliminary extent of the study areas which include for both cities the urban area and the
airport zone, including the main connection road. The extension of the study area might increase to
cover the actual extension of urban pattern as identified from the remote sensing analysis
envisioned to be carried out or additional areas where the cities are planned to expand in the
future.
8|Inception Report
Figure 1: City of Garowe study area
9|Inception Report
Figure 2: City of Kismayo study area
10 | I n c e p t i o n R e p o r t
Socio-Economic Conditions
Kismayo
Disaster risk profile

According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) ThinkHazard web
portal5, Kismayo region river flood hazard is classified as high based on modeled flood information,
which are assumed to apply to the riverine zones rather than to Kismayo urban area itself. On the
other hand, urban flood hazard is classified as very low. Nevertheless, although the hazard is
considered to be very low in the project area based on the information available in ThinkHazard, it
is important to highlight that the level of detail of the tool is focused on a regional scale rather than
on an urban scale and that the availability of additional information may show a different level of
hazard. In terms of climate change impacts, the portal indicates high confidence in an increase in
intense precipitation. The assessed hazard level is expected to increase in the future due to the
effects of climate change.
As far as coastal flood, Kismayo hazard is classified as high. This means that potentially damaging
waves are expected to flood the coast at least once in the next 10 years. Tsunami hazard is
classified as medium, meaning that there is more than a 10% chance of a potentially damaging
tsunami occurring in the next 50 years. Also considering climate change impacts, according to the
IPCC (2013), there is high confidence that extremes in sea level will increase with mean sea level
rise, yet there is low confidence in region-specific projections in storm surges.
Governance
Kismayo is the third largest city in Somalia and the capital of both the Lower Juba region and the
Jubaland state. The city is located on the coast of the Indian Ocean near the mouth of the Juba
River approximately 500 km southwest of Mogadishu. The port city is of not only regional but also
national strategic significance as it lies halfway between Mogadishu and the Kenyan border.
Administratively, Kismayo is divided into five districts: Farjano, Shaqaalaha, Calanley, Faanoole and
the new district of Gulwade where the most recent expansion is taking place. Some of the key
institutions who plays a decisive role in the study are: (i) the land authority, who is presently leading
the development and implementation of the new urban master plan, (ii) the office of the
municipality of Kismayo, who is leading the urban flood study, (iii) the ministry of water and energy,
who is responsible for developing the fluid waste water network system.
5
https://www.thinkhazard.org/en/report/25690-somalia-juba-hoose-kismaayo
Demographics and Urban Growth

The most recent available population data for Kismayo is the United Nation Population Fund
(UNFPA) 20146 estimates. It indicates that Lower Juba has a total population of 489,307,
comprising an urban population of 172,861, a rural population of 161,512, 124,334 nomads and
30,600 IDPs. The drought impact in rural areas and the influx of returnees, due to closure of some
refugee camps in Kenya in the recent years, have affected population numbers in Kismayo.
Unverified sources state that more than 44,000 people have been voluntarily repatriated from the
Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya to Kismayo from 2014 up to July 2017. This
information combined with the normal population growth of the city, make the population figures
available from 2014 estimates outdated. According to UNHCR Somalia7, new IDPs in Kismayo
District, for the period 2016-2021, amounts to a total of about 60,000 people.
The Jubaland State of Interior provided more updated population figures for 20208, with an
estimated total urban population of 540,402, including 113,642 returnees and IDPs and 21,712
persons residing in peri-urban neighbours or villages of Yoontoy, Luglow, Goobweyn and Airport
Suburbs. However, these numbers seem slightly high if compared with the previous ones. Based
on these figures, considering the young population, and estimating a stable growth rate of 2.8%,
GIZ9 projected the future population in 2040 of close to 1 million.
Kismayo is characterized by a compact form with an average density of roughly 160 people/ha10,
which is pretty much in line with the average urban density in Somalia (180 people/ha)11. In the last
fifteen years, a dispersed, low-density development has sprawled towards the inlands especially in
the north towards Afmadow and the west towards the airport, with the built-up area which tripled
from 2006 to date.
The most relevant development of the city in recent year has been the construction of the IDP
housing projects in the north of the city which started to be built in 2017, the settlements now
known as Midnimo and Medina Villages (7% of the total area of Kismayo).
6
UNFPA Population Estimation Survey 2014 - https://somalia.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Population-Estimation-Survey-of-
Somalia-PESS-2013-2014.pdf
7
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/dataviz/1?sv=1&geo=192
8
GIZ, Feasibility Study for Kismayo water supply from Jubba river - Kismayo, 2020
9
GIZ, Feasibility Study for Kismayo water supply from Jubba river - Kismayo, 2020
10
UN-Habitat, 2017. Kismayo Urban Profile
11
Linard et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2010, 9 :45 - http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/9/1/45
Figure 3: Kismayo urban growth in 13 years (UN-habitat Kismayo Urban Profile)
Land Use
The predominant land use in Kismayo is urban and residential land-use with animal husbandry
being practiced outside the urban area. The urban and residential areas include public buildings,
business premises and residential dwellings with paved and unpaved gravel roads. IDP settlements
located on the peripheries of the urban areas are also a notable land use in Kismayo.
Figure 4: Kismayo Hinterland (UN-habitat Kismayo Urban Profile)
Facilities
Kismayo used to get most of its water from the Juba River through the Kismayo Water Treatment
Plant, which has however been out of operation and the pipes have been looted. All drinking water
comes from few private desalination plants that treat the brackish groundwater. A large population
has only access to poorly designed shallow dug wells, sometimes less saline but also unreliable as
dependant on rains.
There is not an effective formal or informal system for solid waste management (SWM) for the
whole city.
The road network of the city is structured around few primary roads – the only paved ones - and a
well-developed network of secondary and tertiary roads. Conditions are very poor in general, with
almost no road-side water drains, limited street lighting, and no formal traffic control. The port is
constructed on one of the Bajuni Islands, and connected to the mainland by an isthmus that
provides vehicular access between the port and mainland, while the airport is one of the four fully
functioning international airports in Somalia (together with Mogadishu, Hargeisa and Garowe).
The town has several educational facilities including primary, secondary, tertiary, and Quranic
schools, both public and private. There is however no free education at any level.
The main health facility in the city is the Kismayo General Hospital. It provides both general and
emergency services to the city residents and people from the rural areas and the urban periphery.
Other main facilities within the town include private Hospitals, health centres and Medical Center
Hospital (MCH), managed by the Government, International and local organizations such as the
Ministry of health, World Vision, WHO and UNICEF.
Recently, Wamo stadium, the largest stadium in Jubaland, was opened by the president after its
rehabilitation, giving the city an opportunity to host both regional and national tournaments.
Additionally, many private playgrounds are present. Few community centres have been set up by
different organizations e.g. GIZ where livelihood skills trainings are conducted.
Kismayo has various mosques and religious centres that serve both worshipping and religious
studies centres. There are various madrasa and Quranic schools available in the town.
Garowe
Disaster risk profile

According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) ThinkHazard web
portal12, Garowe river flood hazard is classified as low based on modeled flood information
available to this tool. This means that there is a chance of more than 1% that potentially damaging
and life-threatening river floods occur in the coming 10 years (return period of c. 1 in 1000 years).
On the other hand urban flood hazard is classified as very low. Nevertheless, although the hazard is
considered to be low or very low in the project area based on the information available in
ThinkHazard, it is important to highlight that the level of detail of the tool is focused on a regional
scale rather than on an urban scale and that the availability of additional information may show a
different level of hazard.
In terms of climate change impacts, the portal indicates high confidence in an increase in intense
precipitation. The assessed hazard level is expected to increase in the future due to the effects of
climate change.
Governance
Garowe city is the capital of the Puntland State of Somalia and one of the four districts in the
Nugaal region in Puntland. It is located North-East of the intersection of Puntland, Southern
Somalia, Somaliland, and Ethiopia and has a transverse North-South highway connecting major
cities in northern and southern Somalia.
A harmonised structure for local government has been endorsed by the Ministry of Interior but not
yet fully implemented. Once in place, as a district, Garowe will have a structure of departments and
units.
12
https://www.thinkhazard.org/en/report/25712-somalia-nugaal-garoowe
Garowe district consist of thirty-one administrative villages. Nine of these are located within the
capital of Garowe. The local administration comprises the Mayor, Deputy Mayor, Local Council,
Executive Secretary (appointed by the Ministry of Interior) and departments.
Figure 5: Garowe Administrative Villages (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)
Demographics and Urban Growth

The population of Garowe has been steadily growing, due to political and social stability in the
region. There are many IDPs and returnees, who fled conflict in other parts of Somalia, as well as
large number of Ethiopian and Yemeni refugees who settled in Garowe, pursuing employment
opportunities and a better lifestyle.
Garowe city has been experiencing rapid urban growth since the collapse of the central
government in 1991, taking advantage also of its status as a political and administrative capital. The
population influx in the early 1990’s and the return of IDPs returnees who fled conflict have led to
continuous population growth in the district.
The UNFPA estimated in 2014 the urban population of Garowe District to be around 100,000.
Garowe city’s Local Government suggests a slightly larger number, of up to 150,000 people. In
comparison with data from UNDP 2005 the population has more than doubled in less than 10
years. It is important to note that winter and summer population differs since many people from
coastal regions with hot summer temperatures and high humidity spend some months inland.
According to UNHCR Somalia13, new IDPs in Garowe District, for the period 2016-2021, amounts to
a total of about 12,000 people.
The city is known for its good hierarchy of roads and is characterized by a compact form, with an
average density of roughly 80-100 people/ha14.
13
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/dataviz/1?sv=1&geo=192
14
UN-Habitat, 2019. Garowe Urban Profile
Figure 6: Garowe Urban Growth in 13 years (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)
Land Use
Garowe city is located between two wadis -ephemeral riverbeds that contains water only during
rainy seasons, which usually occur during April-May and September-November.
Figure 7: Garowe Environmental Map (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)
The Togga Garowe, to the north, is the larger river, and it is visible for some part of the year during
rains. With steep, high banks it has traditionally constituted the limit of the urbanized area, but from
2015 development has progressed also on its northern side. The new area is connected to the rest
of the town by only one bridge. It presents some topographical relieves, and many ministries have
been clustered on the top of a hill. The other dry riverbed, Lan Alifrin, forms the southern limit of
the built-up area. The zone between the two wadis is relatively flat and construction has grown in
time in an orderly manner. The dry soil that characterizes the area, with poor absorption ability,
cause the runoff of heavy rains to collect in gullies and streams and, as they join to form larger
volumes, often form a fast-flowing front of water and debris.
Facilities
Garowe is at the intersection of three main commercial, high traffic corridors: the 130km Garowe-
Laascanood, the 240km Garowe-Galkayo and the 410km Garowe- Bossaso (National Road). All of
them are paved but, according to the Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment, only the latter
is in fair condition however reaching the end of its design life.
The town has a piped water system managed by Nugal Water Company (NUWACO) through a
Public Private Partnership (PPP) model, extracting water from 5 boreholes in and around town.
Pipes draw water from a reservoir of about 650 m3, and cover around 90% of the urbanized area,
and there are number of kiosks scattered at different points of the town. Residents in the town also
rely on hand dug shallow wells and berkads.
The few waste collection sites in Garowe are located in close proximity to the riverbeds. This could
easily cause contamination in times when the seasonal rivers are full, affecting water resources and
Beerab Jillab, the agricultural land located along the riverbeds.
The city has several academic institutions. According to the Puntland Ministry of Education, there
are 37 primary schools in the Garowe District; eleven of them are located in the urban area. There
are 5 Secondary schools in the area, while higher learning in the city includes Puntland State
University’s main campus, Bosaso university campus, East Africa University (EAU) and Garowe
Teachers Education College (GTEC).
The condition of health services in Garowe city is insufficient15. Most of the rural areas lack health
services and rely on the urban center, aggravating the load on the existing facilities.
Mire Awaare Stadium hosts many national soccer games and athletics. Private sector started
investing in sport by developing smaller playing grounds and fitness centers which can be
operational in the evening and mostly used by adults. Few community centers exist in the town.
The city however suffers from a shortage of public recreation and community centers. For
recreation purposes the residents occasionally go to a small park called “Hiddo raac” around 9 km
west of the city.
Garowe has various mosques and religious centers that serve as both worshiping and religious
studies centers. There are various madrasa and Quranic schools available in the town. Cemeteries
15
UN-Habitat, 2019. Garowe Urban Profile
of the various sizes are located in five areas at the periphery of the town, but they are currently at
capacity. New land will have to be allocated for this use in the immediate future.
Physical Settings
Kismayo
Kismayo has a hot semi-arid climate. Weather is hot year-round, with seasonal monsoon winds and
irregular rainfall with recurring droughts. Mean daily temperatures range between 25° C and 30° C
with the daily maximum temperatures reaching up to 35° C. February to April is usually the hottest
months. The Southwest Monsoons, begin in April and last until July producing significant
freshwater and allowing lush vegetation to grow. Average annual rainfall is about 500 mm and April
to July monsoon accounts for about 80% of the annual rainfall. The monsoon is followed by the dry
season.
The drainage catchment of Kismayo city located within the coastal plains consists of scattered
dunes with a peak of about 40 m a.s.l and falling below 10 m a.s.l (generally South-westerly and
South-easterly direction) to the Indian Ocean. The part of the catchment covering the city is very
flat with less than 1% slope, and there are no marked topography changes. The relatively flat
terrain associated with scattered dunes and unplanned developments present a challenge to
facilitate stormwater drainage in the city. The other part of the city however is part of a big water
catchment about 1,900 km2 with a mean elevation of 14 m a.s.l. (East oriented), comprehensive
also of the airport area, as can be seen in the following figure.
Figure 8: Kismayo position, related to the main river catchment in the area (in green)
The Kismayo bed is characterized by the outcropping of the metamorphic basement complex,
made up of migmatites and granites. Sedimentary rocks such as limestone, sandstone, and
gypsiferous limestone are present, as well as an extensive, wide system of coastal dunes. A wide
coastal dune system occurs along the coast. Most soils share characteristics of heavy texture and
low permeability, with a tendency to poor drainage.
Kismayo sits on a shallow aquifer, which lies within a depth ranging from 2-3 m to 10 m. The
proximity of the groundwater table retards the absorption of stormwater to the underlying ground
profile, and water pooling is a common occurrence after rains.
Garowe
Garowe is semi-arid, characterized by tropical desert with hot and dry climate. Coldest average
temperatures occur from November to February, when thermometer readings range from 23 to 25
°C. The weather slowly heats up in the spring, as the April rainy season begins. Average
temperatures later reach a maximum of around 41°C over the summer period. Rainfall in the region
is sparse and variable, with no single area receiving more than 400 mm of rain annually. There are
four main seasons around which pastoral and agricultural life revolve namely:
1. Jilal, from January to March; the harshest dry season of the year;
2. Gu, from April to June; the main rainy season;
3. Xagaa, from July to September; the second dry season;

4. Deyr, from October to December; the shorter and less reliable rainy season.
Figure 9: Garowe position, related to the main river catchments in the area
The area between the two wadis is relatively flat with gentle slope, while the new urban area on the
north of Togga Garowe present some relieves.
The main water catchment is the Togga Garowe river, with a catchment of about 350 km2 and a
mean elevation of 590 m a.s.l. (Northeast oriented); given the passage of the wadi within the urban
texture and the presence of settlements close to the river banks, during the rainy season the wadi
can potentially overflow, causing flooding in the urban area.
Preliminary Assessment of the Causes of the

Flood Issues
Kismayo
Because Kismayo is a coastal city, not only the flash flooding but also the coastal flooding has to be
considered during the analysis. Tides and extreme sea levels are possible causes of floodings.
Other causes of flooding is physical developments, housing, roads etc. which are being developed
without complementary storm drainage development. This means that long term solution will also
have to look at the future developments.
Currently, the city does not have a proper drainage system for stormwater collection, conveyance,
and disposal. Though some of the existing main roads are provided with side drains, culverts and
associated structures connecting to various disposal facilities, they have not been maintained for
long time and generally they are non-functional due to a variety of reasons including erosion and
siltation.
Due to the lack of a natural drainage (probably destroyed by urbanization), during floods the water
follows the main roads and creates pools in the depressions. Moreover, urbanization and economic
activities also slowly reduce permeable soil and rural areas and cause removal of vegetation.
Without a specific drainage network able to store and direct the water to the ocean (logical
recipient for ultimate disposal), there is no solution to the urban flooding issues. To this extent,
various options will be considered and analysed in the Study.
The airport main road, which has the lowest elevation within the road network, receives storm
water from the surrounding areas and acts as the ultimate recipient of drainage water: this area
gets flooded during rainfall events (even those not particularly extreme) until natural seepage
processes and evaporation drain the zone. Under SURP II, a plan has already been devised to
relieve the airport read from flooding.
Garowe
The urban flooding of Garowe city, which is located along the Togga Garowe (with a relevant
hydrological catchment, as mentioned above), must be considered as caused not only by the
conditions of the urban drainage and localized rainfall events, but also by the wadi flood wave,
which might occur during rainfall events occurring upstream in the entire catchment.
Due to the absence of a drainage network and the increasing urbanisation, flooding could affect
more and more those living in town, and have drastic consequences for the poorest parts of the
city and IDPs. Urbanization and economic activities also slowly reduce permeable soil and rural
areas and cause removal of vegetation. This provokes erosion as well as maceration of the soil,
posing additional environmental threats. Furthermore, reduction of green areas has a deep social
and health impact.
Preliminary Vulnerability Issues

In general terms, risk is a multiplicative function of hazard severity, exposure, and
vulnerability16.The vulnerability can be expressed as “the apparent weaknesses of physical and
social systems to particular hazards”17. Physical systems are, for example, buildings and
infrastructures, while the vulnerability of social systems related to are complex functions of social,
economic, political, and cultural variables and are usually addressed through proxies18. It is key to
include social systems in a vulnerability analysis, even though through proxies, since even a
synthetic snapshot of a settlement can provide precious insights about particular sensitivities of
specific neighbourhoods (high presence of elderly and children, disabilities, etc.) or low adaptive
capacity (poverty, presence of people that do not speak the local language, etc.). From the aspects
considered in the analysis, proper response can be designed.
Kismayo
As mentioned in the previous chapters, Kismayo is experiencing an important expansion, with the
consequent increasing flood problem. In the city the most vulnerable facility that needs to be
safeguarded is the Kismayo General Hospital, which provides both general and emergency
services to the city residents and people from the rural areas and the urban periphery. It is situated
in the southern part of the city, about 400 m from the sea.
Moreover, educational facilities including primary, secondary, tertiary, and Quranic schools, both
public and private, are present in the town.
Given the recent development of the city, it is anticipated that some areas might be more fragile
than others, in social terms, like IDP settlements.
Garowe
Generally, the presence of two seasonal rivers (wadis) crossing the city raise the vulnerability
potential of the area, particularly considering the town expansion. In fact, on the riverbanks a lot of
houses have been built, and usually get flushed away during the flood.
The General Hospital is located along the left bank of the wadi Togga Garowe, although in an
elevated position.
16
Natural Disaster Hotspots. The World Bank, Hazard Management Unit, 2005, Washington, D.C.
17
Ibid.
18
Ibid.
The few waste collection sites in Garowe are near the riverbeds, During the flood, when the wadis
are full, the risk of contamination of the water resources and the agricultural land is high.
The city has also several academic institutions such as primary, secondary, and tertiary schools.
Similar to Kismayo, given the recent development of the city, it is expected that some areas are
more fragile than others, in social terms, like IDP settlements.
Detailed Methodology
Technical Approach
The proposed technical approach is based on key technical activities, summarized in the diagram
below.
The technical activities include the following project tasks, better explained in the Detailed Work
Plan and Deliverables Chapter:
• Task 1: Literature review for Kismayo and Garowe, Data Collection and Characterization of the Area
of Interest:
The first phase of the project consists of collecting and evaluating baseline data for the two cities of
Kismayo and Garowe and the surrounding areas. The data collection and review of the existing
system covers rainfall historical recorded data, sea level time series, flood mapping and critical areas,
remote sensing data. This knowledge, together with consultations of strategic plans for urban
development, drainage, and storm water management, will lead to the acquisition of the key
principles for storm water drainage.
• Task 2: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage Analysis for Kismayo and Garowe:
Data collected in Task 1 are processed to perform a rainfall and storm analysis, based on remotely
sensed data to derive a digital elevation model, combined with field surveys, aimed also at the
definition of the prevalent land uses and geomorphology of the area, identifying the relevant
physical and environmental basin characteristics, including its hydraulic infrastructure, water
resources, as well as the existing drainage networks and flood conveyance. This analysis is used to
create urban flood mathematical models and to perform a flood risk analysis, including the
production of different maps, to have a complete assessment of the urban flood risk.
• Task 3: Identification of Types of Measures to Enhances Urban Flood Resilience for Kismayo:
Based on the flood hazard and risk analysis and system understanding, measures to reduce flood risk
and improve stormwater drainage in the city will be proposed. This phase involves the design of the
mains layout, including hydrodynamic modelling and the hydraulic verification and sizing of the trunk
mains. The procedure provides a preliminary estimation of the costs (include estimates for cost of
repair/reinstatement of roads and other infrastructure that could be damaged during construction)
and potential flood reduction benefits, as well as phasing, for the various types of measures.
All main tasks require interaction with the local stakeholders, for both the data collection and the
validation phases. Some of the key stakeholders are listed as follows:
• Office of the Mayoralty

• Representatives from key Civil Societies
• International Development Agencies (GIZ, AfDB, UNOPS, WB, UNHABITAT, etc)
• Local Ministry of Public Works
• Local Municipality
• Local Water Companies

• Ministry of Water
Figure 10: Technical approach schematic diagram
Of all the data listed above, the one which will likely need to be collected in the field are limited to
the topographic survey and pictures of critical part of the city (such as intersection, key building,
key areas more severely affected by flood, existing stormwater systems, etc)
Given the technical approach generally described above, this section touches upon our proposed
methodology to address key specific areas of the assignment:
1. The development of a detailed digital terrain model.

2. The reconstruct of an appropriate rainfall model.
3. The Identification of sea level data for the city of Kismayo.
4. The process for the development of exposure and vulnerability data and mapping to identify
population and critical assets at risk.
5. The implementation of Urban Flood Modelling and Flood Risk Analysis.
6. The urban drainage studies.
Details of the proposed implementation plan and description of the deliverables are provided in the
Detailed Work Plan and Deliverables Chapter.
Development of Detailed Digital Terrain Models
Project Needs
Digital Terrain Model (DTM). A DTM is fundamental to the quality of the flood hazard data and
subsequent mapping and risk analysis. Under this project we will develop a Digital Terrain Model
with adequate resolution and coverage to provide the basis for a city-wide modelling grid. It will be
our role to use all available terrain data to produce the best possible DTM for flood modelling. This
will help the World Bank to have informed discussion with the Government on the potential flood risk
reduction approaches.
Proposed Approach
Based on our current understanding of the hydrography of the two study areas, we believe that the
project will require the development of several different sets of digital terrain models at different
resolutions and extents.
Specifically, for the urban flood study of the city of Garowe, given the potential impact of the local
wadi to the hydrology of the city, we anticipate the need to develop 2 separate DTMs:
• At the watershed level, we plan to use off-the-shelf SRTM 30-meter resolution DTMs. Such dataset is
more than adequate for the development of a hydrologic model for the entire watershed.
• For the city of Garowe and its surroundings (see image below) we plan to use a stereo pair of optical
Pleiades Neo satellite images19 newly acquired, from Airbus provider.
Stereo imagery will be captured by Pleiades Neo between 28.03.2022 - 09.05.2022 and will then be
processed to allow for the generation of a 60-70 cm vertical accuracy DTM product, for an area of
about 90 km2.
Figure 11: Garowe’s AoI for high resolutions satellite based DTMs
For the city area we will also plan to gather several hundred ground controls points. Such elevation
data will be derived partially by using already available topographic surveys (major roads) and
partially by employing our own survey team and the high-precision differential GPS equipment we
have already available on site in Garowe. By doing that we will be able to increase further the
vertical accuracy.
19
Elevation1&4 | Detailed and highly accurate elevation information (intelligence-airbusds.com)
Figure 12: Planned ground control points survey in Garowe
For the city of Kismayo, stereo imagery can be captured by Pléiades Neo between an undefined
time window spanning 28.03.2022 - 28.02.2023; therefore since this is not aligned with the project
timeline, we will rely on mono images from Pleiades archives with 50 cm resolution to generate a
DTM:
• Mono archive Pléiades images with 0.5 meters resolution;

• DTM Derived from 5 Pleiades mono imagery with 1.5 m vertical accuracy.
• Similarly, to Garowe, we will gather additional ground control points to enhance as much as possible
the vertical accuracy above mentioned; ground control points will benefit also of the existing
topographic information gathered within the Somalia Urban Investment Planning Project (SUIPP)
Feasibility Studies, Preliminary, and Detailed Engineering Designs for Kismayo and Baidoa Project.
Figure 13: Kismayo AoI for high resolutions satellite based DTMs
Figure 14: Ground control points in Kismayo: existing points and planned survey
Reconstruct Appropriate Rainfall Model Inputs
Project Needs
Rainfall – We will identify potential local data sets from nearby locations that would have similar
characteristics. In absence of better data, we will use global rainfall statistics to define IDF (intensity,
depth, frequency) curves to derive appropriate rainfall model inputs. Daily (24 hourly manual
readings) can be used, however for urban flooding, the response time is invariably much shorter than
24 hours, and the critical storm may be 3 to 6 hours. A statistical approach for deriving short duration
event rainfall profiles is required. Potential climate change projection on precipitation change will be
considered to the extent possible.
Proposed Approach
The most updated database available for the project areas is given by SWALIM Somali Water and
Land Information Management Portal20, made available by FAO. Observed rainfall available data
include daily records as follows:
• Garowe Area:
o Garowe (2007 – 2021)
• Kismayo Area:
o Kismayo - Prewar Database (1963 – 1990)
o Jonte- Prewar Database (1963 – 1990)
o Jamaame (2007 – 2021)
Figure 15: SWALIM database rainfall stations and the Areas of Interest
20
http://www.faoswalim.org/
Ground observed data will be analysed to assess its integrity, temporal coverage, and validity. In
order to validate the time series and in case there is a need to increase the time series coverage, in
addition to the historical records, global databases will be taken into consideration.
Global datasets provide reliable data, usually uniformly spatially distributed, useful when observed
information is not available or is not sufficiently detailed. We will include in the analysis the
precipitation data provided by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
through its ERA-Interim program or TMPA (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis) generated
with the TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). Both type of data can be extracted
over a 0.25° x 0.25° grid, giving precipitation data in a 3 hours-time step. ERA-Interim21 is a global
atmospheric reanalysis of rainfall projections starting from 1979, while Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM22), a joint mission of NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, was
launched in 1997 to study rainfall for weather and climate research.
By using the available rainfall data, different approaches can be employed in order to develop the
relationship between the height “h” [mm] and the duration “t” [min] of the precipitation for the project
areas, i.e. the IDF curves.
A common method is a statistical approach that uses Hershfield’s ratios (Hershfield, D. M., Rainfall
frequency atlas of the United States for durations from 30 minutes to 24 hours and return periods
from 1 to 100 years, Technical paper 40, U. S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau,
Washington, D. C., 1961), assuming a Log Pearson type III distribution for the data series and the
relationship h(t=1hour) = 0.22h(t= 24hours) (Guide to hydrological practice, world Meteorological
Organization, 5th edition, 1994).
Another option might be to use the reduction formula developed by the Indian Meteorological
Department, which was applied in the Mogadishu Trunk Drainage Master Plan and Road
Interconnectivity Assessment Study (UNOPS, 2018). The empirical reduction formula equation is
used for estimation of various duration like 1-hr, 3-hr, 6-hr, 12-hr rainfall values from annual maximum
values. This formula is used to estimate the short duration rainfall from daily rainfall data for 1 Hour,
3 Hour, 6 Hour and 12 Hour.
! #
!(#) = !(24) (
24
21
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim; European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast
(ECMWF) (2011): The ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (accessed 24 September 2019),
available from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/archive-datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim
22
https://pmm.nasa.gov/TRMM
Where, P(t) is the required rainfall depth in mm at t-hr duration, P (24) is the daily rainfall in mm and
t is the duration of rainfall for which the rainfall depth is required in hr.
Other approaches which will be tested since they might prove to be more suitable to the specific
geographic area, include some state of the art methods accessible through technical literature, such
as:
• De Paola et al.: Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate
projection in African cities. SpringerPlus 2014 3:133 - focused on Eastern Africa;
• Eman Ahmed Hassan El-Sayed: Development of Empirical Formula to Estimate Short Duration Rainfall,
Water Resources Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Egypt, Nile Water Science &
Engineering Journal, Vol. 10, Issue 1, 2017 - focused on arid zones of Egypt.
Once the more appropriate method is established, the IDF curves will be derived for different return
periods, i.e. 2, 10, 50 and 100 years; the design storm frequency of 10-year return period is usually
used to check the urban drainage network.
Starting from the rainfall statistical elaboration, design synthetic hyetograph will be calculated with
the Chicago method (Keiferr and Chu 1957), choosing the duration event proved to be the most
critical, to be used as an input for the flood modelling activities.
Rainfall analysis required activities include the climate change impact assessment on the rainfall
patterns. Existing specific studies on Somalia providing precipitation future trend will be taken into
account. In case this information is not available, regional studies, such as the climate impacts maps
developed within the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal23 along with the most recent
versions of the UNCCC’s panel of General Circulation Models (GCMs) which provide readily available
data sets for both historical and future-modelled medium- and long-term scenarios of temperature
and precipitation variation due to climate change, will be used.
Identify Sea Level Data for Kismayo
Project Needs
Sea levels for Kismayo– According to World Bank GFDRR24, Kismayo coastal flood hazard is
classified as ‘high’. This means that potentially damaging waves are expected to flood the coast at
least once in the next 10 years. Based on this information, the impact of coastal flood must be
considered for any activities located near the coast. Project planning decisions, project design, and
construction methods must consider the level of coastal flood hazard. Time series of a range of
23
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/somalia/climate-data-projections
24
https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/25690-somalia-juba-hoose-kismaayo/CF
tidal and surge conditions will be required as boundary conditions for flood modelling. Surges will
be estimated from available local data.
Proposed Approach
At first, available historical data will be investigated, both locally and within global databases. As per
our knowledge, a sea level observation station is available in Mogadishu25, with a time series of
about 10 years, but data availability is still unclear; alternatively, other stations, such as Lamu26 in
Kenya, located about 200 km south of Kismayo will be used as reference, too. Global databases
such as GLOSS27 (Global Sea Level Observing System) will be taken as reference, as well.
Statistical analysis will be applied to collected historical records, to define extreme events to be
applied as boundary conditions to the flooding analytical tools required to be implemented.
Figure 16: Location of Lamu and Kismayo
25
http://sealevel.odinafrica.org/stations/mogadishu.htm
26
http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/data/?fd#uh149
27
https://www.psmsl.org/gloss/
At this stage, historical data (at least the dataset available for Lamu station, which covers June
1995 – February 2022 time window) appears to be consistent and long enough to perform an
analysis, and assess extreme sea water level which can be expected under specific meteorological
conditions. According to the available literature28 29so far investigated, apparently Kismayo is not
usually hit by tropical cyclones, which usually happen north of Mogadishu. Still, extreme wind-
waves will be assessed, investigating available literature focused on Indian Ocean30.
Figure 17: Preferred annual tropical cyclone paths (Shaji et al. 2014)
As far as climate change projections, according to the IPCC (2013), there is high confidence that
extremes in sea level will increase with mean sea level rise yet there is low confidence in region-
specific projections in storm surges. Therefore, it is expected that a drainage system for Kismayo
should be designed to be robust to projected increases in global sea level. World Bank Climate
28
C. Shaji1, S.K. Kar & T. Vishal, Storm surge studies in the North Indian Ocean: A review, Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences Vol.
43 (2), February 2014, pp. 125-147
29
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Horn_of_Africa_tropical_cyclones
30
Athira Krishnan · Prasad K. Bhaskaran · Prashant Kumar, Extreme wind-wave climate projections for the Indian Ocean, under changing
climate scenarios, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06147-x, 2022
Change Knowledge Portal31 provides information on the predicted sea level rise, which will be
taken in due account while planning drainage solutions for future scenarios.
Figure 18: Projected Sea Level rise of coastal Somalia (1993-2015, Source World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal)
Data analysis and mapping to identify population and critical

assets at risk
Project Needs
Task 2 and 3 of the assignment will provide an overview of exposure and vulnerability data for
elements and assets at risk. Task 2 will focus on the collection, analysis and / or development of the
necessary information for both Kismayo and Garowe, whereas Task 3 will focus on identify priority
areas and types of measures that may improve stormwater drainage and reduce urban flood risk
for the city of Kismayo.
31
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/somalia/impacts-sea-level-rise
Proposed Approach
To develop these types of datasets we plan to use geomatics on high and very high-resolution
satellite imageries complemented with information collected in the field (via photographing and
geolocating critical building and facilities around town). In addition to that, UN-habitat city profiles
and the most up-to-date urban development plans will provide key projections on expected future
urban expansions.
The bulk of the geomatic work will be developed by employing deep learning platforms for image
analysis such as those provided for example by Aventior32 or UP4233. The analysis will be
performed on high (<2 meter) or very high horizontal resolution satellite imageries such as Pléiades
1A/1B; the images we intend to use are the same that will be acquired for the development of the
digital surface and digital elevation models. Pléiades 1A/1B are very-high resolution twin satellites
offering 0.5m resolution products. Pléiades constellations are highly reactive and have been
designed for daily revisit anywhere on Earth, with stereo and tri-stereo capacity.
Some of the data processing blocks we are prepared to employ are briefly described below.
Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to detect Buildings
Building Detection identifies buildings in satellite images. The AI block can detect buildings of
various sizes in images with ground sampling distance (GSD) of 0.55 m or less. The output is
provided as GIS shape file with details of detected bounding boxes coordinates.
The algorithm uses deep learning techniques to achieve the classification, extracting information
from the DTM data, aided by GCPs (Ground Control Points), and training the automated process on
specific sites (the process is depicted in the following flowchart and image). The algorithm
processes satellite images with no restrictions on image dimensions. The use cases are
urbanization monitoring, infrastructure monitoring, urban planning & design, construction. The
diagram below shows the processing approach, while the images that follow provide an example of
the algorithm processing steps and capabilities.
32
Digital Innovation & Technology Solutions Provider | Aventior
33
Satellite Imagery: Buy and Sell High Resolution Earth Data & Processing Algorithms · UP42
Figure 19: Building detection processing approach from the image acquisition to the production of the urban footprint map.
Figure 20: Building detection algorithm process and output sample
Depending on the level of detail we will reach through the utilization of the proposed algorithm, we
will try to integrate the processed output with field data, in order to develop as much as possible,
the following datasets:
• Physical infrastructure data: building stock (residential, commercial, industrial, and public), transport
and technical infrastructure (roads, drainage canals, and networks incl. power, communication,
sewerage and water supply).
• Social services data: critical facilities such as (a) emergency shelters, (b) emergency services such as
police stations, hospitals, and fire stations, (c) other critical facilities such as schools or public buildings.
Settlement Mapping
Figure 21: REACH database employed to derive and track IDPs campsite in Garowe
Settlement Mapping is another target which we would like to focus on possibly through the AI
processing of satellite images, as a by-product of the building detection analysis. Since at this stage
the level of accuracy of the outcomes is hard to be predicted, additional information will be taken
into account available from existing database, such as REACH Resource Center34 dataset, which
contains a rather updated record of IDP settlements, as of 2021.
Figure 22: REACH database employed to derive and track IDPs campsite in Kismayo
34
https://www.reachresourcecentre.info/country/somalia/cycle/43025/?toip-group=data&toip=dataset-database#cycle-43025
The Settlement Mapping tool will help provide the spatial distribution of residential population,
general location of vulnerable population groups including displaced people living in IDP or refugee
formal and informal camps.
Field Reconnaissance and Local Stakeholder Engagement
As already mentioned above, in addition to the use of geomatic processes, we also plan to use our
national staff and local backstopping personnel based in Garowe and Kismayo. To that extent we
plan to engage with local actors and community initiatives, NGOs and development partners with a
local presence in the respective cities to assist in the collection and validation of exposure data;
consult residents and households in particularly affected areas to identify local needs for risk
reduction and drainage solutions. Some of the conversation we intend to have with the local
stakeholders will allow us to identify pressures from natural and anthropogenic sources, and assess
ecological, cultural, and economic values where relevant, define planned development activities
and urban development hotspots, i.e. areas in the city that will expect urban growth, densification,
or urbanization, such as IDP camps.
More specifically, the steps we intend to follow for engaging and consulting local stakeholders are
the following:
• Arrange two face to face workshops (one in Kismayo in middle of May 2022 and one in Garowe at
the end of June 2022) with a number of key stakeholders. The two local PIUs in Garowe and Kismayo
will be consulted to identify the list of participants ahead of the workshops.
• Based on the results of the two in-person workshops, the two PIU’s will provide a broader list of
stakeholders and that the consultant should reach out to.
Regulatory framework assessment, identification, and mapping of stakeholders
While performing the field reconnaissance activities, we will also assess existing policies, laws, and
regulations governing water and sanitation, disaster risk management, environmental protection
and conservation, climate change adaptation, land use and urban planning, identifying gaps &
inconsistencies as well as potential convergence points between the different frameworks and
opportunities how gaps could be bridged to facilitate the use of resilience solutions for climate
change adaptation and disaster risk management.
The work will involve key stakeholders from national government and local authorities,
development partners (such as UN-Habitat), communities and special interest groups, to
understand concerns and needs, conflicts of interest and levels of influence, as it relates to urban
flood risk and stormwater drainage priorities. We will also plan to assess the responsibilities and
capacities of government agencies and institutions that have relevant mandates for the
implementation of resilience approaches for urban flood risk and stormwater drainage
management, including exchanges with key representatives from these institutions. These type of
assessments will be coordinated in consultation with the PIUs.
Urban Flood Modelling and Flood Risk Analysis
Project Needs
An urban flood risk and stormwater drainage analysis will be conducted for Kismayo and Garowe,
specifically looking at the hazards of rainfall and coastal flooding. The assessment will consider the
four elements of risk to identify general hotspots of:
i. Hazard: Providing estimation on location, extent, magnitude (severity) and frequency of the hazard
events;
ii. Vulnerability: Defined as the apparent weaknesses of physical and social systems to particular hazards;
iii. Risk: Providing a combination of hazard and vulnerability, to get an estimation on the direct and
indirect losses from flooding.
The scope and the extent of the analysis will differ for the two cities.
For Kismayo, the hydrological and hydraulic analysis for the flood hazard assessment will consider
the interaction of precipitation (flash flooding) and coastal flooding (tides and extreme sea levels)
thereby factoring in the joint probabilities tidal levels, sea level rise, drainage system, rainfall and
flash flood; given the position of the city and the actual shape of the hydrological catchments
nearby, no river flooding is expected to be investigated.
For Garowe, which is located along a large wadi, urban flooding is expected to be affected not only
by the conditions of the urban drainage and localized rainfall events, but also by the flood hazard
posed by the wadi and rainfall events occurring upstream along the watershed.
Proposed Approach
As far as the inundation analysis, the vulnerability of an area can be assessed only according to
flood hazards.
The general approach starts from the identification of the main hazards that are or could potentially
be able to affect the anthropic or natural assets of the study area: this analysis is usually
accomplished through the implementation of numerical models, 1D or 2D according to the needs
and the available data. Given the urban environment of the areas of interest, 2D models will be
employed. Two dimensional models need a higher level of detail for topographic information, but
results are more precise both in terms of water level and velocity, particularly in urban
environments or if water exchange between river main channel and floodplains do exist.
Starting from the Detailed Digital Terrain Models, derived from remote sensing acquisitions, a
mathematical model will be implemented, applying boundary conditions as needed, i.e. extreme
rainfall patterns over the computational domain, extreme hydrographs in the wadis, or sea level
along the coast.
Flood modelling
Digital Terrain Model
Remote Sensing
Figure 23: Flood risk assessment modeling approach
Results of such study will allow to find out the main vulnerable elements and provide the criteria
needed to calculate their vulnerability level, possibly using already tested and/or validated indexes
or existing laws and recommendations of governing institutions. The production of hazard maps is
obtained combining water depth and velocities, which are the main parameters used to give
different characterization of the areas subject to flooding.
All input data and results will be stored and organized within a GIS environment, helping the
management of huge amount of data, and mapping of the main identified hazards.
Under the operational point of view the flood analysis uses the results of all the performed
numerical models’ simulations and combine them together to obtain an assessment of the danger
posed by the flood, a vulnerability evaluation, and finally the identification of the level of risk. The
vulnerability evaluation will be based on the land use classification (basically the human activities of
the area) to obtain the vulnerability map. Finally, the risk analysis will consider the results of hazard
and vulnerability studies and combines them defining risk categories.
The use of the state-of-the-art numerical modeling and GIS tools is the necessary requisite for the
implementation of the most up to date risk analysis.
Our plan is to take stock of Freeware and Open Source modelling and analytical environments
(HEC35 and EPA36 tools for modeling and QGIS37 for mapping). The utilization of free and open-
source codes has several mid- and long-term advantages. For example:
• no vendor lock-in: the user is independent from the marketing choices of the vendor;
• general higher project sustainability and lower difficulties in technology transfer;
• faster improvements, at no additional licensing cost;
• better cooperation with other projects, because of the lack of initial licensing costs.
The following figure provides a preliminary diagram of tools planned to be employed. As pointed
out earlier, the modelling chain will be different for the two project areas, as follows:
• Kismayo. The urban 2D surface flooding model will use as boundary conditions both the rainfall
extreme event design hyetograph (reconstructed as explained above) and the coastal flood caused
by extreme sea level; sea level will be evaluated through the analysis of existing data; the 2D urban
surface flood model might be coupled with an urban drainage model, in order to account for the
existing drainage network or for proposed engineering solutions.
• Garowe. The urban 2D surface flooding model will use as boundary conditions the rainfall extreme
event design hyetograph (reconstructed as explained above) and the wadi hydrograph generated by
extreme rainfall events in the upstream catchment; catchment hydrology will be calculated through
a specific model; the 2D urban surface flood model might be coupled with an urban drainage model,
in order to account for the existing drainage network or for proposed engineering solutions.
The above defined modeling chains will finally be coupled with GIS spatial analysis to perform flood
risk assessment.
35
US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center - https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/
36
US Environmental Protection Agency - https://www.epa.gov/water-research
37
https://qgis.org/en/site/
Extreme
precipitation
event
Catchment Urban 2D Urban GIS flood risk

Hydrology flooding drainage assessment
HEC-HMS HEC-RAS EPA-SWMM QGIS
Sea level
assessment
Figure 24: Urban flood modelling approach and tools – Dashed blocks are optional, depending on the specific project area
Catchment hydrology is required for the calculation of the extreme events hydrographs due to
rainfall runoff processes in the watershed upstream the urban area, which is the case of Garowe. A
hydrological model will be implemented with HEC-HMS38. HMS is a free of charge model, used all
around the world, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The Hydrologic Modeling
System (HEC-HMS) is designed to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of dendritic
watershed systems. The software includes many traditional hydrologic analysis procedures such as
event infiltration, unit hydrographs, and hydrologic routing. HEC-HMS also includes procedures
necessary for continuous simulation including evapo-transpiration, and soil moisture accounting.
Advanced capabilities are also provided for gridded runoff simulation using the linear quasi-
distributed runoff transform (ModClark). Supplemental analysis tools are provided for model
optimization, forecasting streamflow, depth-area reduction, assessing model uncertainty, erosion
and sediment transport, and water quality. It can be easily used in conjunction with other software
for studies of water availability, urban drainage, flow forecasting, future urbanization impact,
reservoir spillway design, flood damage reduction.
Urban flooding due to heavy rainfall will be investigated through the implementation of a 2D
hydrodynamic model, capable of coupling local hydrological processes and urban surface runoff,
implemented with HEC-RAS. HEC-RAS is a widely known free of charge software designed to
perform one and two-dimensional hydraulic calculations for a full network of natural and
constructed channels, including Rain-on-Grid (RoG) application. RoG modelling is an increasingly
38
https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms/
popular approach within the storm risk management, in which the hydrological and hydrodynamic
flood processes are modelled entirely within the 2D hydrodynamic model. Given that the
topographic information is expected to be sufficiently detailed, the application of HEC-RAS will take
to the implementation of models able to face challenging issues related to the analysis of
rainfall/runoff in urbanized areas and actual basins, including the numerical treatment of buildings
and the computation of infiltration losses within hydrodynamic computations. The 2D urban surface
flood model will be coupled with an urban drainage model, in order to account for the existing
drainage network or for proposed engineering solutions. The urban drainage model employed will
be EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). SWMM is used throughout the world for
planning, analysis, and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and
other drainage systems. It can be used to evaluate gray infrastructure stormwater control
strategies, such as pipes and storm drains, and is a useful tool for creating cost-effective
green/gray hybrid stormwater control solutions. SWMM was developed to help support local, state,
and national stormwater management objectives to reduce runoff through infiltration and retention
and help to reduce discharges that cause impairment of waterbodies.
Combining the numerical models’ outcomes with the land use data, geospatial analysis and flood
risk assessment will be conducted in a GIS environment, using the software QGIS. QGIS is an
open-source GIS user interface tool. QGIS is widely considered to be the best GIS tool in the free
and open-source software (FOSS) community. QGIS is a user-friendly Open-Source Geographic
Information System (GIS) licensed under the GNU General Public License. It runs on Linux, Unix,
Mac OSX, Windows, and Android and supports numerous vectors, raster, and database formats
and functionalities. Moreover, the software is used by thousands of institutions throughout the
world, including World Bank, UN, FAO, etc. It is very actively developed by an international team of
over 100 developers. QGIS offers a complete user interface, allowing the user to easily access,
import, and modify data, and produce print quality maps.
Figure 25: Ravenna city, Italy – Sample of flood mapping
Figure 26: Ravenna city, Italy – Sample of Hazard Map, Vulnerability Map, Risk Map
Flood Resilience Planning and Urban Drainage Study
Project Needs
As mentioned earlier, Task 3 will focus on identify priority areas and types of measures that may
improve the urban flood resilience and the stormwater drainage solutions and reduce urban flood
risk for the city of Kismayo. Following the outcomes of Task 1 and 2, the key elements and task
targets include:
• Identify a set of simple and implementable City-wide urban flood resilience strategy.
• Identify priority areas for action, based on the risk assessment (task 2).
• Outline main principles to manage stormwater, build climate change resilience and reduce risk of
people and their livelihoods.
• Identify a long list of types of non-excluding measures to implement the strategy, including:
o traditional structural measures (pipes, storm drains, detention ponds).
o non-structural measures (e.g., related to flood adapted land use).
o sustainable, from an operation and maintenance’s point of view, drainage and green
infrastructure solutions.
• General estimation of the cost-effectiveness and benefit streams of measures (including cost of
repair/reinstatement of damaged roads/structures)
• Set out a city-wide drainage system proposal based on structural measures.
• Design a drainage system generally featuring simple and viable maintenance procedures that also
take into consideration the challenges given by the lack of organized solid waste management.
• Test the effectiveness of the proposed drainage system using advanced urban modelling.
• Address challenging storm intensities and runoff quantity control.
• Mitigate the potential environmental impacts through the reuse of stormwater, and through the
adoption of green solutions to clean the stormwater before it is discharged.
• Synthetic guidelines for promoting effective governance involving the stakeholders at an early design
stage.
Proposed Approach
The proposed approach is based on the integration of multidisciplinary methodology
encompassing:
• Strategic spatial planning to identify priority areas and types of measures.

• Urban drainage system study, combining traditional engineering, and Nature based Solutions.
• Stakeholders’ involvement to fine tune and validate proposed solutions and build ownership.
The strategic approach is finalized at defining an intervention framework for the whole Kismayo
system. The site-specific approach of planning allows for the coordination of different types of
actions and modes of intervention (incremental, network, systematic, ...) and, at the same time,
ensure flexibility to accommodate different implementation time and cope with uncertainty.
The definition of a list of possible types of measures will be the tool to give an operational
dimension to the strategies, presenting options for action that can be applied in individual projects,
policies, or infrastructure systems. The list, together with the priority areas for intervention, will
provide useful and action-oriented information for decision-makers. Such list will be presented at
the Stakeholder Reflection Workshop scheduled for the month of October 2022. During such
meeting, in coordination with the PIU, a selected list of stakeholders will be invited to the 2 days’
workshop. Individual options will be presented and the inherit challenges and benefits of each
alternative clearly presented. The workshop will play a critical role in advising the consultant on
which solution(s) is more suitable to the local context and more likely to gather broad consensus
among the local stakeholders.
Strategic spatial planning
The definition of the city-wide strategy is based on the main results of tasks 1 and 2: flood hazard,
risk analysis and system understanding. The findings of these and other outputs of the previous
tasks are interpreted and systematized to identify priority areas for intervention which will be
presented and discussed with the stakeholders during the Stakeholder Reflection Workshop
scheduled for October 2022.
Hazar d s h eat m ap s
Ex p o s u r e h eat m ap s
Vu l n er ab i l i t y h eat m ap s
Dam ag e h eat m ap s
Ph y s i c al en v i r o n m en t
Lan d u s e
St o r m w at er d r ai n ag e m ap s
Ur b an f l o o d r i s k an d s t o r m w at er
d r ai n ag e as s es s m en t
Figure 27: Priority areas identification
A strategic spatial planning approach will be applied in the definition of general principles in
relation to the drainage system and, more in general, responses to flood can be improved in the
city to handle current and future needs. The strategic dimension and its application through
principles allow defining interventions' main purposes, clarifying how different parts of the city and
different types of measures can contribute to improving stormwater management.
Principles that will underpin the whole strategy may encompass concepts such as prevention,
protection, reduction, and response. As an example, a "protection" principle highlights the priority
of protecting assets or population from the effects of coastal/urban flooding. Conversely, the
principle of "reduction" is linked to the need to reduce run-off formation in areas that cause
downstream flooding.
The principles identification will also encompass questions such as general maintenance, and how
the strategy copes with different future scenarios in terms of both climate change and urban
expansion.
Figure 28: Principles scheme
The identification of priority areas will be based on the risk analysis, as already mentioned above,
and will be presented through a map with a color coding, based on the level of priority.
The identification of types of possible measures to reduce flood risk, instead, will be presented as a
matrix. Types of measures expected to be considered include:
• Grey – structural measures.

• Soft – non-structural measures.
• Green-blue - green infrastructure and Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS).
For each measure, general indication of costs-benefits will be provided. When referring to
“benefits”, the information will also include non-monetary values, such as environmental and social
aspects. In addition, the principles will be included in the list of measures through the specification
of suitability. For example, measures A may serve where “prevention” is required, measure B may
serve where “reduction” is required. In this way, principles will be translated into site-specific
information to respond to local needs, but at the same time will be flexible enough to allow the
coordination of different types of measures and implementation times.
Urban context Water principles Co-benefits

Type of action
Figure 29: Matrix of types of measures (with suitability and cost-benefits information)
Figure 30: Example of general measure project sheet
Urban drainage system study
To reduce the flood risk in the urban area of Kismayo a new drainage system will be designed
proposing simple and viable engineering solutions developed at a concept Master Plan Level. A
numerical model will be developed to verify and optimize the performance of the proposed urban
drainage system. For the project scopes the use of a runoff and hydrodynamic model will allow the
verification of the drainage system and the assessment of the benefits descending from the proposed
intervention, also considering the future development of the city land use. Figure 31 reports an output
example of a plan view of a model network developed by the Consultant for a large city in the Middle
East.
Figure 31: Example of a Plan view of the Hydraulic Model network (Sulaymaniyah Master Plan)
Critical rainfall duration will be determined running simulations with the numerical model and
choosing the duration which maximizes the pipe filling for the chosen design Return Period.
A hydrological model for the calculation of the runoff processes will be set up, dividing the overall
contributing area in sub-catchments each flowing to a model node. Each catchment will be
characterized defining hydrological parameters such as permeability, time of concentration,
hydrological losses. The permeability will be calculated assigning to each land use category a specific
percentage of impervious area obtaining a specific value for each catchment by geo-processing. An
example of a thematic view of the calculated permeability is reported in Figure 32; this example refers
to a concept master plan for a new city development in southern Iraq.
Figure 32: Impermeable Area Thematic view- Example of Hydrological Parameters calculation
The runoff for each catchment will be calculated running the hydrological model using design
storm with different Return Period and different durations for different present and future planning
scenarios.
The network hydrodynamic model will be built including the main relevant elements. The results
from the hydrological runoff model are used as an input for the hydrodynamic model in order to
calculate discharge and water depth in each pipe.
An example of a network model layout, where maximum flow results can be read for each modeled
culvert, is shown in Figure 33.
Figure 33: Network model results
Design pipes and culverts can be also represented as long profiles. Figure 34 shows an example of
a long profile reporting pipe size, slope, length, and all hydraulic calculation elements such as water
depth and discharge with instantaneous filling rate, at the specific hydraulic calculation time step,
also represented (highlighted in blue).
Figure 34: Example of a Drainage Network Model Long Profile
The same results can be also shown in a cross-section view (see example for a modelled open
channel below.
Figure 35: Open Channel Cross Section
Local Stakeholder Engagement
The conversation we intend to have with the local stakeholders will allow us to align most up-to-
date urban plans and city profiles and extend the analysis keeping in consideration future
population growth scenarios. Among the others we plan to seek consensus about the proposed
solutions and to get local feedback on the following:
• Identification of pressures from natural and anthropogenic sources, and consideration of ecological,
cultural, and economic values where relevant.
• Identification of planned development activities and urban development hotspots, i.e. areas in the
city that will expect urban growth, densification, or urbanization (e.g. IDP camps).
Data Requirements and Limitations
List of Documents
The following list shows documents and published reports that the Consultant is trying to gather,
which might prove useful for the project development.
Table 1: Data requirements – documents and reports
# Document Collection status
1 Somalia Urban Investment Planning Project (SUIPP) R

Additional Financing
Feasibility Studies, Preliminary, And Detailed Engineering
Designs For Kismayo And Baidoa
Feasibility Study Report - Kismayo
Final Report (2019)
UNOPS Project Ref: 21496-001
2 Somalia Urban Investment Planning Project (SUIPP) R
Additional financing
Urban Drainage Improvements In Kismayo
Prefeasibility assessment
Draft Report (2020)
UNOPS Project Ref. 21496-001
3 Garowe R
First Steps Towards Strategic Urban Planning
UN-HABITAT (2008)
4 Garowe R
Urban Profile
UN-HABITAT (2019)
5 Kismayo R
Urban Profile
Jubaland Ministry of Public Works, Reconstruction and
Housing
UN-HABITAT (2020)
6 Somalia Urban Assessment: Towards An Integrated Approach R

To Services In Kismayo And Baidoa (2018)
7 Somalia Urban Resilience Project Phase II (P170922) R
The World Bank (2019)
8 Somalia Urban Investment Planning Project (Suipp) R
Mogadishu Trunk Drainage Masterplan and Road
Interconnectivity Assessment Study
# Document Collection status
Final (2018)
UNOPS
9 Hydrogeological Survey and Assessment of Selected Areas in R
Somaliland and Puntland, Zoltan Balint H. G., Technical Report
No. W-20, FAO-SWALIM (GCP/SOM/049/EC) Project, Nairobi,
Kenya, 2012
10 Review of Kismayo Stormwater Drainage Project by Dr. Angel S
Guerrero Castells, 28 January 2020
11 Transport Road Research Laboratory Report 706, TRRL – East S
African Flood Model Department of Environment, Fiddes et al.
12 The study on the national water Master Plan, Sectoral Report S
(B) Hydrology, JICA, 1992
List of Data
The list below shows the information layers which the Consultant would like to collect, in terms of
ground observed data or mapped features which would prove useful for the flood mapping
exercise, along with the list of layers of information that are going to be created in the project. The
list is based on Consultant knowledge and understanding and might not be exhaustive.
Table 2: Data requirements – ground observed data and maps
# Information Description Source of Limitations Collection

Layer Information Status
1 Hydrology Rainfall Data SWALIM Data series R

sometimes are
less than 20 years
long
Flow SWALIM Data is available R

only for the
stations of river
Jubba and
Hirshabelle
Water Points SWALIM Surveys have been R

Observed Levels done by different
organizations in
different period of
time

Sea Observed University of Data available for R

Levels Hawaii - Sea Lamu station, 200
Level Center km south of
Kismayo
2 Topography Remote sensing Airbus Pleiade Vertical accuracy: S

derived DTM Satellite
Garowe 60-70 cm
Kismayo 1.5 m
Existing Ground UNOPS Data available for R

Control Points Kismayo
Ground Control Consultant S

Points survey
3 Geomorphology Soil Units SWALIM Data on national R

scale
Infiltration HWSD (2009) Data on national R

scale
4 Land Use Land use SWALIM Data on national R

scale
5 Climate change Rainfall projections World Bank R

Sea level projections World Bank R
6 Physical Hydraulic Local General S
Environment infrastructure stakeholders - information on
Consultant field location and
assessment functionality of the
infrastructures
Existing drainage Local General S

networks stakeholders – information on
Consultant field location and
assessment functionality of the
infrastructures

7 Regulatory Existing policies, Local S

Framework laws, and regulations stakeholders
governing water and
sanitation, disaster
risk management,
environmental
protection and
conservation,
climate change
adaptation, land use
and urban planning
8 Urban Footprint Detailed maps and Open Street Level of accuracy S

vector layers of Map depend on the
existing buildings level of detail of
and transportation Consultant acquired satellite
network elaboration of images
newly acquired
high-resolution
satellite images
and
interpretation,
manual
digitalization,
field
reconnaissance
9 Hazard heat Generalized city- Consultant Level of accuracy S

maps wide flood hazard elaboration depend on the
maps, showing after flood level of detail of
contours of flood models the DTMs
extent, flood depth implementation
and, if possible, flood
velocity for different
return periods (1-
year flood, 1/5-year
flood, 1/10 and 1/25-
and 1/50-year flood)
10 Exposure heat Generalized city- Consultant Level of accuracy S

maps wide exposure elaboration depend on the
maps, visualizing after flood level of detail of

areas with a models the DTMs and of

concentration of implementation the physical and
elements at risk to social ground
different flooding information
scenarios and urban collected
development
hotspots
11 Vulnerability Generalized city- Consultant Level of accuracy S

heat maps wide vulnerability elaboration depend on the
maps, visualizing after flood level of detail of
areas with a models the DTMs and of
concentration of implementation the physical and
vulnerable social ground
population groups to information
urban flooding collected
12 Damage heat Generalized city- Consultant Level of accuracy S

maps wide damage maps, elaboration depend on the
considering the after flood level of detail of
direct/indirect models the DTMs and of
damages and losses implementation the physical and
and indicated the social ground
approximate information
annualized flood risk collected
for Kismayo and
Garowe
13 Stormwater City-wide maps and Consultant field S

drainage maps documentation of assessment
the existing drainage and Local
structures stakeholders
14 Potential types List of potential Consultant S

of Urban Flood types of measures to elaboration
Reduction enhance urban flood
Measures resilience:
pipes, storm drains, Consultant S

detention ponds elaboration

non-structural Consultant S
measures elaboration
sustainable drainage Consultant S

and green elaboration
infrastructure
solutions
15 Green and blue Map of all green and Consultant S

infrastructures blue infrastructures elaboration and
map (coast, rivers, parks, field
gardens, street assessment
trees, ...) to map
location of such
infrastructure, and to
quantify their
present contribution
to floods and heat
waves mitigation.
This layer will serve
as baseline for the
design of green
solutions
16 Participatory To validate results of Consultant field S

flood-hotspots exposure map from assessment
map GIS analysis, a map and Local
obtained through the stakeholders
involvement of local
communities, to
identify flood prone
areas will be
collected thanks to
the local presence of
the team
17 Socio- A socio-economic Consultant field S

economic vulnerability map assessment
vulnerability (with info per and Local
map neighbourhood) will stakeholders
be obtained through
interviews with local

communities and
involvement of local
experts. Such map
will overlay:
Income per Consultant field S

neighbourhoods (or assessment
other proxies for and Local
poverty) stakeholders
Presence of women Consultant field S

as head of assessment
households and Local
stakeholders
Percentage of Consultant field S

children and elderly assessment
(per neighbourhood) and Local
stakeholders
Presence of non- Consultant field S

native people (per assessment
neighbourhood) and Local
and/or people that stakeholders
do not speak the
local language
Presence of people Consultant field S

with disabilities (per assessment
neighbourhood) and Local
stakeholders
Street vendors (per Consultant field S

neighbourhood) assessment
and Local
stakeholders
Gap Filling Strategy

In order to characterize the flood risk of Kismayo and Garowe, the present project needs several
datasets which ideally would require significant ground-based information, which are only partially
available, due to the lack of historical information or to the difficulty of getting new ground
information within the time frame of the project. As such, the entire methodological approach
above described was conceived specifically for coping with the data limitations and fill potential
gaps, accessing as much as possible remotely generated information, integrated with the available
ground data.
As far as the topographic and the urban texture data, the project is going to collect up to date
information through remotely sensed data acquisition, which will create an up-to-date topographic
database supporting the analytical tools required to be implemented. Such dataset will be highly
improved in its level of vertical accuracy, integrating the existing ground information, such as those
available in the Somalia Urban Investment Planning Project (SUIPP) Feasibility Studies, Preliminary,
And Detailed Engineering Designs for Kismayo and Baidoa Project; in addition we will perform spot
topographic survey for both cities under study, deploying our local staff.
In terms of general information such as topographic data or climate for the project area, it is
assumed that the relevant authority will support providing access to any dataset which might not be
included in national scale repositories, such as SWALIM portal. Alternatively, global database can
be accessed to obtain sufficiently detailed data for supporting the numerical model implementation,
as follows:
• The general topography of the catchment upstream of Garowe might be given by the digital elevation
model of the watershed. The elevation data used for the modelling is the 30 m resolution SRTM, made
available by USGS39 , with <=16 m absolute vertical height accuracy, <= 10 m relative vertical height
accuracy and <=20 m absolute horizontal accuracy; such level of detail is highly acceptable for
catchment hydrology assessment;
• As of climatic data, the Consultant may include in the analysis the above mentioned TRMM data
(Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts) through its ERA-Interim. This dataset generally provides rainfall, temperature, humidity,
solar radiation and wind speed for any given location across the Globe.
Building detection algorithm will be applied to remote sensing data to identify the building patterns.
Depending on the level of detail we will reach through the utilization of the proposed algorithm, we
will try to integrate the processed output with the field data we are going to collect, to perform as
much as possible a classification for buildings, trying to differentiate between public buildings and
private buildings.
39
https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/
Detailed Work Plan and Deliverables
Team’s Organization Structure

The overall consortium comprises two leading companies (Hydro Nova from Italy and Terre Solidali
from Somalia) and main subcontractor (The International University of Architecture of Venice). The
following is a short description of the roles and responsibilities of each individual team member.
Hydro Nova (HN)

• Team leading the project and the key experts and coordinate discussions with Stakeholders and the
client.
• Procure, analyze, and develop digital elevation Models.
• Develop all analytical tools required under Task 2.
• Develop hydraulic models as requested under Task 3.
• Develop and design both the green and grey solutions.
Terre Solidali (TS)

• Provide logistical support in Garowe and Kismayo;
• Provide local support in leasing with stakeholders.
• Implement all field related surveys.
International University Architecture Venice (IUAV)

• Coordinate the planning aspects and the development of the feasibility analysis required under Task
3.
The following is the list of all key experts involved in the assignment and their respective role in
each of the 3 tasks.
Name of Staff and firm Area of Expertise Relevant to Designation for this Assigned Tasks or
ID Company Location
associated with the Assignment Assignment Deliverables
Civil Engineer, Water
K-1 Eng, Andrea CATTAROSSI Team Leader Hydro Nova Task 1, 2 and 3 International
Resources Planning
Hydrologist/flood
K-2 Eng, Paolo POLO Civil Engineer, Hydrology Hydro Nova Task 2 and 3 International
management expert
K-3 Eng. Eugenio PARPAIOLA Civil Engineer, Hydrology Drainage Engineer Hydro Nova Task 1 and 2 International
K-4 Eng. Paolo MASTROCOLA Civil Engineer, Hydrology GIS Expert / Risk Modeler Hydro Nova Task 1 and 2 International
Architecture, Urban Planning,
K-5 Prof. MUSCO Francesco Urban planner IUAV Task 3 International
Landsacping Architecture
K-6 HASSAN Mohamed W. Civil Engineer Roads Engineer Terre Solidali Task 2 and 3 Local
Social Development
K-7 HASHI Faisal Ali Social Science Terre Solidali Task 2 and 3 Local
specialist
K-8 AMIN Noah Arre Environmental Science Environmental Specialist Terre Solidali Task 2 and 3 Local
Green Infrastructure and
Architecture, Urban Planning,
K-9 Arch. Elena CATTAROSSI nature-based solutions Hydro Nova Task 3 International
Landsacping Architecture
Expert
Work Plan
This section provides a narrative of the Work Schedule that the Consultant proposes to undertake
for the Project. Each main Project Task is narrated in a form template to provide details of duration
of activities and description.
Duration
TIME [Months]
N° Task / Deliverables [Weeks]
Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Task 0 Signing contract 0
Literature review for Kismayo and Garowe, Data Collection and
Task 1 5
Characterization of the Area of Interest
1.1 Desktop Review 4
1.2 Field Reconoissance and Informed Discussions 2
D. 1a Inception Report
D. 1b Virtual Inception Workshop (Kismayo)
D. 1b Virtual Inception Workshop (Garowe)
Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage Analysis for Kismayo
Task 2 24
and Garowe
2.1 Development of high and medium resolution Digital Terrain Models 8
2.2 Reconstruction of Rainfall and Climate Change Events 4
2.3 Identify Sea Level Data for Kismayo 4
2.4 Identify Geomorphology, Drainage and Land Use Conditions 8
2.5 Aquire and / or Develop Exposure and Vulnerability data and mapping 12
Assess the Regulatory framework. Identification, and mapping of
2.6 8
stakeholders
2.7 Perform Urban Flood Modelling and Flood Risk Vulnerability Analyses 16
D-2a Digital Terrain Model
D-2b Maps and Database
D-2c Assessment Report on Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage
Identification of Types of Measures to Enhances Urban Flood
Task 3 28
Resilience for Kismayo
3.1 Define general principles for storm water drainage City of Kismayo 12
Identify types of possible measures for urban flood resilience in Kismayo
3.2 8
Carry out a general estimation of the cost-effectiveness and benefit

3.3 8
streams
D-3a Stakeholder Reflection Workshop
D-4a Final Project Report
D-4b Virtual Dissemination Workshop
Task 1: Literature review for Kismayo and Garowe, Data

Collection and Characterization of the Area of Interest
Task ID: T-1 Sub-Task ID: N/A Title: Literature review for Kismayo and Garowe,
Data Collection and Characterization of the Area
of Interest
Duration Start: April 2022 End: May 2022 Length: 8 Weeks
Linkages with None Deliverable(s):

other
Task/Sub- 1a. Inception Report. On the bases of the initial data review
Tasks phase, an inception report will be drafted to outline our approach
to the tasks, detailed methodology, updated work plan based on
detailed review of available data and data collection program. The
report will be provided, in draft, ahead of the virtual inception
workshop, which will take place on May 18th in Kismayo, and will
be finalized in the days following the workshop.
1b. Virtual Inception Workshop (s). Two workshops initial multi-

stakeholder workshop are planned to a) present the conceptual
approach of the study and initial findings of the root causes of the
urban flooding based on the literature and data review, b) present
the methodology we plan to use for the selection of the target
areas, c) gather relevant feedback from stakeholders on the
overall initiative as well as on specific aspects of the consultants
approach, and d) collect any further data as necessary. The first
inception workshop was held virtually on March 30th, 2022. A
second inception workshop will be held, in person, on May 18th in
Kismayo. Information and feedbacks gathered during these
meetings will help revise and finalize the inception report and the
overall project’s methodology.
Short Sub- Upon signing the contract, our plan is to spend the first month of the project in
Task collecting and evaluating baseline data for the two cities of Kismayo and
Description Garowe and the surrounding areas. Data we plan to collect ranges from off-
the-shelf studies from previous initiatives 40,41,42 our own databank on the
hydrogeology and hydrology of the two target areas, acquisition of a range of
medium and high-resolution satellite products covering the study areas, data
based on site reconnaissance visits and government and/or municipal
agencies and key stakeholder consultations.
Site reconnaissance visits and preliminary consultation with local agencies

and stakeholders will be carried out by our national key experts and our
backstopping personnel based in our offices located in Garowe and Kismayo.
These preliminary field activities will be carried out during the month of May
2022.
As per the scope of work, the data to be collected/created will include:
i. Relevant data related to the physical environment and flood/coastal hazards.

ii. Exposure and vulnerability data and mapping to identify population and
critical assets at risk
iii. Regulatory framework assessment, identification, and mapping of
stakeholders
The generation of data that requires analysis and interpretation of satellite

imageries and / or the use of drones will be performed under Task 2.
The results of this initial phase is summarized in this inception report.
Task 2: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage Analysis for

Kismayo and Garowe
Task ID: T-2 Sub-Task ID: N/A Title: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage
Analysis for Kismayo and Garowe
Duration Start: May 2022 End: September Length: 24 Weeks

2022
40
Pre-Feasibility Assessment for Urban Drainage Improvements in Kismayo. The Report and the collected data will be made available to
the consultant.
41
DRC, 2018. Kismayo. Strategic Development Framework. 2019-2035.
42
UN-Habitat, 2017. Kismayo Urban Profile
Linkages with Task 1 Deliverable(s):

other
Task/Sub- 2a. Digital Terrain Model (DTM). A city-wide DTM for
Tasks Kismayo and Garowe.
2b. Maps and Database. The following maps will be

developed as part of Task 2:
• Hazard heat maps: generalized city-wide flood hazard

maps, showing contours of flood extent, flood depth and,
if possible, flood velocity for different return periods (1-
year flood, 1/5-year flood, 1/10 and 1/25- and 1/50-year
flood);
• Exposure heat maps: generalized city-wide exposure
maps, visualizing areas with a concentration of elements
at risk to different flooding scenarios and urban
development hotspots
• Vulnerability heat maps: generalized city-wide
vulnerability maps, visualizing areas with a concentration
of vulnerable population groups to urban flooding
• Damage heat maps: generalized city-wide damage maps,
considering the direct/indirect damages and losses and
indicated the approximate annualized flood risk for
Kismayo and Garowe.
• Stormwater drainage maps: city-wide maps and
documentation of the existing drainage structures.
2c. Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage

Assessment. An assessment report on urban flood risk
and stormwater drainage will be prepared. The report will
include: (i) the methodology utilized to perform the risk
assessment; (ii) a summary of the results and main
conclusions of the urban flood risk assessment, and (iii) a
summary of the key findings of the stormwater drainage
assessment.
Short Sub- Upon completing Task 1 and achieving an agreement on the overall
Task methodology, data processing and level of details for the study, our plan is to
Description immediately start processing data and conduct the required field surveys
required for the creation of the most accurate digital terrain model at medium
and high resolution (Sub-Task 2.1). This subtask, which started in early April
2022, is scheduled for completion by the middle of June 2022. Furthermore,
the acquisition of the necessary amount of ground control points (GCP) will be
completed during the month of May 2022. In Garowe, given the less stringent
security conditions, movement will be easier and faster. On the other hand,
Kismayo will likely require special attentions and caution.
Sub-Task 2.4 (‘Identify Geomorphology, Drainage and Land Use Conditions’)

will start in May 2022 and it is expected to be completed by June 2022. The
dataset will be derived by combining our own in-house datasets, which we
have developed over the past 15 years while implementing various water
related projects and water master plans for the cities of Garowe and Kismayo.
In addition to that, we plan to incorporate into our datasets based on satellite
or higher resolution imagery. Under this sub-task we will analyze the prevalent
land uses and geomorphology of the sub-catchment, identify the relevant
physical and environmental basin characteristics, including its hydraulic
infrastructure, water resources of the donor basins, as well as the existing
drainage networks and flood conveyance (including typical cross-sections of
stormwater channels, roadside drains & culverts, and flow directions of
channels).
Sub-Task 2.5, which deals with the acquisition and generation of exposure
and vulnerability data will start in parallel to Sub-task 2.1. The sub-task will
likely use the same satellite products we plan to acquire for the development
of the DTMs. To that extent, the same geospatial platform might be employed
to refine images and create details maps and vector layers of existing
buildings and transportation network. Field work required under sub-task 2.1
and 2.5 will be tied together to help manage security challenges and other
various logistical aspects. Many of the field interviews and data collection
required under Sub-Task 2.6 (‘Assess the Regulatory framework.
Identification, and mapping of stakeholders’) will also be conducted at the
same time.
Sub-Task 2.2 (‘Reconstruction of Rainfall and Climate Change Events’), 2.3

(‘Identify Sea Level Data for Kismayo’) and, ultimately, Sub-Task 2.7 (‘Perform
Urban Flood Modelling and Flood Risk Vulnerability Analyses’) will run in
sequence and extend from the month of May to the month of September
2022. The hydrological and hydraulic analysis for the flood hazard
assessment will consider the interaction of precipitation (flash flooding) and
coastal flooding (tides and extreme sea levels) thereby factoring in the joint
probabilities tidal levels, sea level rise, drainage system, rainfall, and flash
flood.
Task 3: Identification of Types of Measures to Enhances Urban

Flood Resilience for Kismayo
Task ID: T-3 Sub-Task ID: N/A Title: Identification of Types of Measures to
Enhances Urban Flood Resilience for Kismayo
Duration Start: Month 6 End: Month 12 Length: 24 Weeks
Linkages with Task 2 Deliverable(s):

other
Task/Sub- 3a: Stakeholder Reflection Workshop. At the
Tasks completion of Task 2, we will organize a technical and
decision-making stakeholder workshop with
representatives from the government and other
stakeholder to (1) discuss the findings of the urban flood
risk and stormwater drainage assessment (from Task 2);
(2) present the different types of potential measures for
urban flood risk reduction and stormwater management.
The workshop will likely be held in person in Kisimayo.
Short Sub- As a result of the previous task and building on the urban flood risk and
Task stormwater drainage assessment, we will identify potential types of
Description investments for flood risk reduction and stormwater drainage that could be
applied to enhance the urban flood resilience of Kismayo. We understand that
Task 3 will be delivered for Kismayo only.
Task 3 is further subdivided into 3 separate sub-tasks.
Sub-Task 3.1. Define general principles for storm water drainage City of
Kismayo
Based on the flood hazard and risk analysis and system understanding, we will
define general principles in relation to how drainage in the city can be
improved to handle current and future drainage needs. Key questions to be
answered are:
• What are realistic/feasible drainage criteria for the city? (e.g. what should be a
rainfall event (duration/intensity) that does not result in flooding and for what
return periods some localized flooding could be acceptable?)
• Can the city mainly be drained by gravity now and into the future? (Since sea
level rise will make gravity drainage more difficult into the future, certain low-
lying areas may or may not be possible to drain by gravity anymore or very
difficult into the future.)
• What is the potential impact of urban expansion/climate change on the
drainage system? Is there a need to reserve space in certain locations for
drainage corridors to cope with the urbanization trend?
• What is the maintenance organization/capacity for the existing drainage
system and possible extensions?
To answers to the questions posed above, we will use the analytical tools
developed under task 2.
Sub-Task 3.2. Identify types of possible measures for urban flood resilience in
Kismayo
Based on the urban flood risk and stormwater drainage analysis and the
principles outlined above, general recommendations should be made for the
areas of the city most at risk and should include ways to reduce flood risk and
improve stormwater drainage in the city. The ‘long list’ of potential types of
measures to enhance urban flood resilience should consider a broad range of
approaches beyond traditional structural measures (pipes, storm drains,
detention ponds) to also include non-structural measures (e.g. related to flood
adapted land use) as well as sustainable drainage and green infrastructure
solutions (e.g. minimization of impervious surfaces, increase water retention
and storage capacities).
Sub-Task 3.3. Carry out a general estimation of the cost-effectiveness and

benefit streams
Based on the findings from the urban flood risk and stormwater drainage
analysis and the stakeholder reflection workshop (see Deliverable 3a below),
the consultant will provide general estimation of the costs and potential flood
reduction benefits as well as co-benefits (recreation, biodiversity, etc) for the
various types of measures. The breadth of the analysis should go beyond
traditional cost-benefit analysis for traditional engineered drainage
infrastructure and consider, to the extent possible, additional environmental
and socio-economic benefits (co-benefits), such as the increase in liveability
(access to public spaces, leisure, etc.).
In terms of the depth of the analysis, the aim is not to develop a detailed Cost
Benefit Analysis but rather to provide a general overview of the potential costs
and benefits associated with the proposed types of measures.
Schedule of Deliverables
A schedule of Deliverables (D) is provided below in the table. In total there are 8 deliverables.
Task Deliverable Description Timeline
D-1a Inception Report May 2022

Task 1
Virtual Inception Workshop May 2022
D-1b
D-2a Digital Terrain Model July 2022
D-2b Maps and Database September 2022

Task 2
Assessment Report on Urban Flood September 2022 (First Draft)
D-2c Risk and Stormwater Drainage
October 2022 (Final)
D-3a Stakeholder Reflection Workshop October 2022
Final Project Report January 2023 (First Draft)

Task 3 D-4a
February 20033 (Final)
D-4c Virtual Dissemination Workshop March 2023
Annex 1: Sample Outputs
Expected outputs embedded in the foreseen deliverables include the following items:
• Existing Conditions Maps:

o Existing stormwater drainage network;
o DTM of the urban area;
o Existing buildings and transportation network;
o Existing Settlements (IDPs);
• Flood risk analysis:
o Hazard Maps;
o Vulnerability Maps;
o Risk Maps;
• Flood Resilience Planning:
o Priority and Compatibility of Measures Matrix;
o Types of measures Matrix;
o Type of measure description sheet;
o Type of measures maps;
• Urban Drainage study:
o Trunk drainage system plan view;
o Drainage trunk lines longitudinal profiles;
o Drainage trunk lines cross-section profiles;
o Manhole typical drawings;
o Box culvert typical drawings;
o Nature based solutions typical drawings.
Below are given graphical samples of the above mentioned outputs.
Figure 36: Priority and Compatibility of Measures Matrix (Sample)
Urban context Water principles Co-benefits

Type of action
Figure 37: Types of measures Matrix with suitability and cost-benefits information (Sample)
prin
measure
and
Description, specifics, water

principles, costs, co-benefits
and best practices.
Figure 38: Type of measures description sheet (Sample)
Figure 39: Trunk drainage system plan view (Sample)
Figure 40: Drainage trunk lines longitudinal profiles (Sample)
Figure 41: Manhole typical drawings (Sample)

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PREPARED FOR:

The World Bank Group (WBG)

Somalia: Urban Flood Risk and Stormwater Drainage

D1-a Inception Report

FINAL Dated 26th May 2022

In Collaboration with IUAV, the University of Venice

LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. IV

DETAILED METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................26

DATA REQUIREMENTS AND LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................57

DETAILED WORK PLAN AND DELIVERABLES ........................................................................................65

ANNEX 1: SAMPLE OUTPUTS ................................................................................................................75

AOI Area of Interest

DTM Digital Terrain Model

EAU East Africa University

ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FOSS Free and Open-Source Software

GCMs General Circulation Models

GCPs Ground Control Points

GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GIS Geographic Information System

GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation

GLOSS Global Sea Level Observing System

GSD ground sampling distance

GTEC Garowe Teachers Education College

HWSD Harmonized World Soil Database

IDF Intensity, Depth, Frequency

IDP Internal Displaced Person

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MCH Medical Center Hospital

MoH Ministry of Health

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NGOs Non-Governmental Organization

NUWACO Nugal Water Company

PPP Public Private Partnership

SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems

SWALIM Somali Water and Land Information Management

SWM Solid Waste Management

TMPA TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission

UNCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNFPA United Nations Population Fund

UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund

UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services

WHO World Health Organization

More specifically, the scope of work is based on the following objectives:

Project Concepts and Methodology

Figure 1: City of Garowe study area

Figure 2: City of Kismayo study area

Disaster risk profile

Demographics and Urban Growth

Figure 3: Kismayo urban growth in 13 years (UN-habitat Kismayo Urban Profile)

Figure 4: Kismayo Hinterland (UN-habitat Kismayo Urban Profile)

Disaster risk profile

Figure 5: Garowe Administrative Villages (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)

Demographics and Urban Growth

Figure 6: Garowe Urban Growth in 13 years (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)

Figure 7: Garowe Environmental Map (UN-habitat Garowe Urban Profile)

3. Xagaa, from July to September; the second dry season;

Preliminary Assessment of the Causes of the

Preliminary Vulnerability Issues

• Office of the Mayoralty