Course Statistical Hydrology

Assigment No. 5
Topic Helsel et al. Chapter 3 - Confidence Interval and Prediction Estimates

We will use the snow dataset again, but use column K, 3-6 Forest for all the analyses (which is under the
evergreens).

1. Compute summary statistics (see Ch. 1),

2. Draw a boxplot and a probability plot
3. Compute the parametric and nonparametric 95% confidence intervals and prediction intervals using R.
This will be 4 sets of calculations.
4. Repeat the calculation of the nonparametric 95% confidence intervals by hand.
5. Based on parts 1 and 2, which is the most appropriate technique to estimate the intervals.
6. Based on part 3, if I have a snow depth in the field of 26.05 cm, does this indicate the field snow depth is
different than the forest?

Solution:
1) Summary statistics
(𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋)3 From lowest
2
Rank depth (cm) 𝑌𝑖 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋 𝑑𝑖 𝑠3 to highest 𝑑𝑖
1 13.710 2.618 -2.290 5.244 1.930 -4.499 0.000
2 14.590 2.680 -1.410 1.988 1.050 -1.050 0.000
3 15.420 2.736 -0.580 0.336 0.220 -0.073 0.220
4 15.640 2.750 -0.360 0.130 0.000 -0.017 0.880
5 15.640 2.750 -0.360 0.130 0.000 -0.017 1.050
6 16.520 2.805 0.520 0.270 0.880 0.053 1.320
7 16.960 2.831 0.960 0.922 1.320 0.331 1.820
8 17.460 2.860 1.460 2.132 1.820 1.166 1.930
9 18.060 2.894 2.060 4.244 2.420 3.275 2.420

𝑛= 9 𝑋 2.50 𝑃0.25 = 15.005

𝑋= 16.000 𝑋 5.00 𝑃0.50 = 15.640
𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑋𝑖 = 15.640 𝑋 7.50 𝑃0.75 = 17.210
𝑠2 = 1.924
𝑠= 1.387
𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 16.000 cm
𝑆𝐷 = 1.387 cm
𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 = 15.640 cm
𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 2.205
𝐺𝑀 = 15.946
𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 1.050
𝑔= -0.134
𝑞𝑠 = 0.424
Using R

The summary statistics of the 3-6 Forest data provide a depth Mean of 16.00 cm, a Median of 15.64 cm,
Standard Deviation of 1.387 cm, Interquartile Range of 2.205 cm, the Skewness Coefficient and Quartile
Skew are -0.1337 and 0.424 respectively.
2) Boxplot

depth (cm) Minimum 13.71

13.71 Q1 15.42
14.59 Median 15.64
15.42 Q3 16.96
15.64 Maximum 18.06
15.64
16.52 Mean 16.00
16.96 Range 4.35
17.46
18.06

Using R

Probability plot

𝑖 19.000
𝑝=
Rank Depth (cm) (𝑛 + 1) Zp
1 13.710 0.100 -1.282 18.000
2 14.590 0.200 -0.842
Snow depth (cm)

3 15.420 0.300 -0.524 17.000

4 15.640 0.400 -0.253
5 15.640 0.500 0.000 16.000
6 16.520 0.600 0.253
15.000
7 16.960 0.700 0.524
8 17.460 0.800 0.842
14.000
9 18.060 0.900 1.282
13.000
Mean 16.00 -1.500 -1.000 -0.500 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500
Median 15.64 Normal quantiles
Skewness -0.13

The dataset is very symmetric, it is represented in the low skewness factor. Also, it is observed in the boxplot
and the probability plot, where the linear fit trendline matches the distrubution of the values.
3) Confidence interval and prediction estimates

The 96.09 % non-parametric confidence interval for the median is (14.59 cm, 16.96 cm). The 95 %
parametric confidence interval is (14.93 cm, 17.07 cm). These two intervals are close, however since the
data shows to be symmetric, the parametric approach is suggested.

The 95% parametric prediction interval for the median is (12.63 cm, 19.37 cm), and the 95% non-parametric
prediction interval is (13.71 cm, 18.06 cm). In this case the non-parametric approach shows a wider range
compared to the parametric approach.
4) Repeat the calculation of the nonparametric 95% confidence intervals by hand.
5) Based on parts 1 and 2, which is the most appropriate technique to estimate the intervals.
Based on the summary statistics (skewness factor) which is low, and from the plots that show a symmetric
distribution, the suggested approach to compute the confidence and prediction intervals is the parametric
one.

6) Based on part 3, if I have a snow depth in the field of 26.05 cm, does this indicate the field snow depth is
different than the forest?
The value of 26.05 cm of snow depth falls out of the confidence and prediction intervals, which means that
this one probably belongs to another group/area.