Institute of Food Research

ComBase for Quantitative Microbiological

Risk Assessment (QMRA)
ComBase workshop, Bristol, 21 January 2011

Aline Métris
 The 4 steps of QMRA for food safety and ComBase

Step Purpose ComBase as a

resource
1. Hazard identification Identify pathogens that might survive the Database,
food environments. ComBase
Predictor
2. Exposure assessment Model the prevalence and growth of Database,
pathogens from farm to fork. ComBase
Predictor
3. Hazard Characterise quantitatively the dose- NA
characterisation response.

4. Risk characterisation Integration of steps 1-3 to determine a risk NA

estimate = ranking, impact factor,
probability of illness per millions etc.

Ref: Codex Alimentarus, 1999

Step 3 of QMRA : Example of exposure assessment

prevalence
contamination
level
growth ComBase & models
inactivation
temperature
Schematic representation of RA
of Campylobacter spp. in broiler
chickens
RA of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens & Vibrio
spp. in seafood, Joint FAO/WHO report
 QMRA : deterministic vs. stochastic

• DETERMINISTIC
• Point estimates for a “worst
case scenario” (conservative)
• STOCHASTIC
• E.g. Monte-Carlo simulations,
Baysian Belief Network, etc.

• Takes into account both

variability and uncertainty
 Example: deterministic model
Listeria in smoked salmon at fridge temperature from
ComBase
(worse case scenario)

temperature= 10°C
growth rate in broth (10°C, pH=6.2, aw=0.938)=0.04 (log CFU /h)
lag=0
After 10 days (240h) in the fridge, increase of cell number=9.6 log
=> leads to unrealistic results.
 Example: stochastic model
of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens

RA of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens & Vibrio spp. in seafood, Joint FAO/WHO report
 Examples of distribution: normal

Normal distribution and its quantiles:
the 68-95-99.7 rule
“Simple distribution”
Has numerous properties (e.g.
central limit theorem) which
may allow analytical solutions
but cannot represent all the
variables useful in exposure
assessment.

Typically represents the variability of

measurements
Ref: Wilkipedia
 Example of variability, data from ComBase

Effect of the strain variability on the growth rate at 8°C: E.

coli O157:O7 in beef, source= tamplin_05
 Principles of Monte-Carlo simulations

• Compute random numbers for each stochastic variable

• Execute calculations with these numbers
• Give distributions of the output variable
=> “standard” technique implemented in user-friendly
software (@Risk, Model-it)
Simple simulations can be carried out in Excel.
 Example of variability
Simulated fridge temperature in Europe with 100 random
numbers assuming a normal distribution, µ=6.62°C,
σ=2.34°C in Excel
 Example of the growth of smoked salmon at fridge
temperature
from data in ComBase: variability and uncertainty
0.25 Cold smoked preparation
sqrt(growth rate (log CFU/ml /h)

Food variability: repeat of the same experiment.

0.2

variability =
0.15
cannot be
reduced with
0.1
more
0.05 experiments

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Temperature (°C)
 Other approach: Bayesian Belief Network

http://n510.nbi.bbsrc.ac.uk:8080/wiki
The case of Listeria in smoked salmon in practice
 Monte-Carlo simulation from ComBase data:
the Ratkowsky model
35
30

µ = a (T − T 0 ) 25
20
15
10
5
0

-0.0557

-0.0371

-0.0186

0.0186

0.0371

0.0557
The errors had a standard
deviation of 0.033

Search in ComBase = Listeria, smoked fish, 0<temperature<=10°C

Primary model = D-model in DmFit
Secondary model = Ratkowsky model at sub-optimal temperature,
a=0.0101, T0=-2.21