ZNOTES//A-

LEVELSERI
ES
vi
si
twww.
znot
es.
org

Updat
edt
o201
9Syl
la
bus

CI
EA
-L
EV
EL
MA
TH
S97
09
(S
2)
FORMULAEANDSOLVEDQUESTI
ONSFORSTATI
STI
CS2(
S2)
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
2
CHAPTER 1

The Poisson Distribution

4
CHAPTER 2

Linear Combinations of Random Variables

4
CHAPTER 3

Continuous Random Variables

5
CHAPTER 4

Sampling & Estimation

7
CHAPTER 5

Hypothesis Tests
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
1. THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION Part (ii):
 The Poisson distribution is used as a model for the Write the distribution using the correct notation
number, 𝑋, of events in a given interval of space or (𝐴 + 𝐵)~𝑃𝑜(2(0.65 + 0.45)) = (𝐴 + 𝐵)~𝑃𝑜(2.2)
times. It has the probability formula Use the limits given in the question to find probability
𝜆𝑥 (2.2)3 (2.2)2 (2.2)1
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑒 −𝜆 𝑥! 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, …
𝑃(𝐴 < 4) = 𝑒 −2.2 ( + +
Where 𝜆 is equal to the mean number of events in the 3! 2! 1!
given interval (2.2)0
+ )
 A Poisson distribution with mean 𝜆 can be noted as 0!
𝑋 ~ 𝑃𝑜(𝜆) = 0.819

1.1 Suitability of a Poisson Distribution 1.4 Relationship of Inequalities

 Occur randomly in space or time  𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟 − 1)
 Occur singly – events cannot occur simultaneously  𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟 − 1)
 Occur independently  𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑟) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟)
 Occur at a constant rate – mean no. of events in given  𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑟) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟 − 1)
time interval proportional to size of interval
1.5 Poisson Approximation of a Binomial
1.2 Expectation & Variance Distribution
 For a Poisson distribution 𝑋~𝑃𝑜 (𝜆)  To approximate a binomial distribution given by:
 Mean = 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆 𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝)
 Variance = 𝜎 2 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜆  If 𝑛 > 50 and 𝑛𝑝 > 5
 The mean & variance of a Poisson distribution are equal  Then we can use a Poisson distribution given by:
𝑋~𝑃𝑜(𝑛𝑝)
1.3 Addition of Poisson Distributions (IS) Ex 8d: Question 8:
 If 𝑋 and 𝑌 are independent Poisson random variables, A randomly chosen doctor in general practice sees, on
with parameters 𝜆 and 𝜇 respectively, then 𝑋 + 𝑌 has a average, one case of a broken nose per year and each
Poisson distribution with parameter 𝜆 + 𝜇 case is independent of the other similar cases.
(IS) Ex 8d: Question 1: i. Regarding a month as a twelfth part of a year,
The numbers of emissions per minute from two a. Show that the probability that, between them,
radioactive objects 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent Poisson three such doctors see no cases of a broken
variables with mean 0.65 and 0.45 respectively. nose in a period of one month is 0.779
Find the probabilities that: b. Find the variance of the number of cases seen
i. In a period of three minutes there are at least three by three such doctors in a period of six months
emissions from 𝐴. ii. Find the probability that, between them, three
ii. In a period of two minutes there is a total of less such doctors see at least three cases in one year.
than four emissions from 𝐴 and 𝐵 together. iii. Find the probability that, of three such doctors,
Solution: one sees three cases and the other two see no
Part (i): cases in one year.
Write the distribution using the correct notation Solution:
𝐴~𝑃𝑜(0.65 × 3) = 𝐴~𝑃𝑜(1.95) Part (i)(a):
Use the limits given in the question to find probability Write down the information we know and need
𝑃(𝐴 ≥ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 < 3) 1
1 doctor = 1 nose per year = 12noses per month
1.952 𝑒 −1.95 1.951 𝑒 −1.95 1.950 𝑒 −1.95 3 1
=1−( + + ) 3 doctors= = noses per month
2! 1! 0! 12 4

= 1 − 0.690 = 0.310 Write the distribution using the correct notation

𝑋~𝑃𝑜(0.25)

PAGE 2 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
Use the limits given in the question to find probability (IS) Ex 10h: Question 11:
0.250 𝑒 −0.25 The no. of flaws in a length of cloth, 𝑙m long has a
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = = 0.779 Poisson distribution with mean 0.04𝑙
0!
Part (i)(b): i. Find the probability that a 10m length of cloth has
Use the rules of a Poisson distribution fewer than 2 flaws.
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜇 = 𝜆 ii. Find an approximate value for the probability that a
Calculate 𝜆 in this scenario: 1000m length of cloth has at least 46 flaws.
𝜆 = 6 × 𝜇 (𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ) = 6 × 0.25 = 1.5 iii. Given that the cost of rectifying 𝑋 flaws in a 1000m
∴ 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 1.5 length of cloth is 𝑋 2 pence, find the expected cost.
Part (ii): Solution:
Part (i):
Calculate 𝜆 in this scenario:
Form the parameters of Poisson distribution
𝜆 = 12 × 𝜇 (𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ) = 12 × 0.25 = 3
𝑙 = 10 and 𝜆 = 0.04𝑙
Use the limits given in the question to find probability
∴ 𝜆 = 0.4
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2)
Write down our distribution using correct notation
32 31 30
= 1 − 𝑒 −3 ( + + ) = 1 − 0.423 = 0.577 𝑋~𝑃𝑜(0.4)
2! 1! 0!
Write the probability required by the question
Part (iii):
𝑃(𝑋 < 2)
We will need two different 𝜆s in this scenario:
From earlier equations:
𝜆 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 1
0.40 0.41
𝜆 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 = 2 × 1 = 2 𝑃(𝑋 < 2) = 𝑒 −0.4
( + ) = 0.938
For the first doctor: 0! 1!
Part (ii):
13
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 𝑒 −1 ( ) Using question to form the parameters
3!
𝑙 = 10 and 𝜆 = 0.04𝑙
For the two other doctors:
∴ 𝜆 = 40 > 15
10
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 𝑒 −1 ( ) Thus we can use the normal approximation
0!
Write down our distribution using correct notation
Considering that any of the three could be the first
𝑋~𝑃𝑜(40) → 𝑌~𝑁(40, 40)
13 10
𝑃(𝑋) = 𝑒 −1 ( ) × 𝑒 −1 ( ) × 3𝐶2 = 0.025 Write the probability required by the question
3! 0! 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 46)
Apply continuity correction for the normal distribution
1.6 Normal Approximation of a Poisson
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 45.5)
Distribution Evaluate the probability
 To approximate a Poisson distribution given by: 45.5 − 40
𝑋~𝑃(𝜆) 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 45.5) = 1 − Φ ( ) = 0.192
√40
 If 𝜆 > 15 Part (iii):
 Then we can use a normal distribution given by: Using the variance formula
𝑋~𝑁(𝜆, 𝜆) 2
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − (𝐸(𝑋))
Apply continuity correction to limits: For a Poisson distribution
Poisson Normal 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜆 and 𝜆 = 40
𝑥=6 5.5≤𝑥≤6.5 Substitute into equation and solve for the unknown
𝑥>6 𝑥≥6.5 ∴ 40 = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − 402
𝑥≥6 𝑥≥5.5 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = 1640 pence
𝑥<6 𝑥≤5.5
𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = ₤16.40
𝑥≤6 𝑥≤6.5
Expected cost for rectifying cloth is ₤16.40

PAGE 3 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
2. LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF RANDOM 2.3 Expectation & Variance of Sample Mean
𝜎2
VARIABLES 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝑛
(IS) Ex 6c: Question 5:
2.1 Expectation & Variance of a Function of 𝑿 The mean weight of a soldier may be taken to be 90kg,
𝐸(𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏) = 𝑎𝐸(𝑋) + 𝑏 and 𝜎 = 10kg. 250 soldiers are on board an aircraft,
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏) = 𝑎2 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) find the expectation and variance of their weight.
(IS) Ex 6a: Question 12: Hence find the 𝜇 and 𝜎 of the total weight of soldiers.
The random variable 𝑇 has mean 5 and variance 16. Solution:
Find two pairs of values for the constants 𝑐 and 𝑑 such Let 𝑋 be the average weight, therefore
that 𝐸(𝑐𝑇 + 𝑑) = 100 and 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑐𝑇 + 𝑑) = 144
𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇 = 90
Solution:
𝜎2 102
Expand expectation equation: 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = = = 0.4 kg2
𝑛 250
𝐸(𝑐𝑇 + 𝑑) = 𝑐𝐸(𝑇) + 𝑑 = 100 To find 𝜇 of total weight, you are calculating
∴ 5𝑐 + 𝑑 = 100 𝐸(𝑋1 ) + 𝐸(𝑋2 ) … + 𝐸(𝑋250 ) = 250𝐸(𝑋) = 22 500kg
Expand variance equation: To find 𝜎, first find 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋)
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑐𝑇 + 𝑑) = 𝑐 2 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑇) = 144 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋1 ) … + 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋250 ) = 250𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 2500kg
16𝑐 2 = 144 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜎 2 = 25000
𝑐 = ±3 ∴ 𝜎 = √25000 = 158.1kg
Use first equation to find two pairs:
𝑐 = 3, 𝑑 = 85𝑐 = −3, 𝑑 = 115 3. CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES
2.2 Combinations of Random Variables 3.1 Probability Density Functions (pdf)
 Expectations of combinations of random variables:  Function whose area under its graph represents
𝐸(𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏𝑌) = 𝑎𝐸(𝑋) + 𝑏𝐸(𝑌) probability used for continuous random variables
 Represented by 𝑓(𝑥)
 Variance of combinations of independent random
variables:
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏𝑌 + 𝑐) = 𝑎2 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) + 𝑏 2 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌)
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋 ± 𝑌) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) + 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌)

 Combinations of identically distributed random variables

having mean 𝜇 and variance 𝜎 2
𝐸(2𝑋) = 2𝜇 and 𝐸(𝑋1 ) + 𝐸(𝑋2 ) = 2𝜇
𝑉𝑎𝑟(2𝑋) = 4𝜎 2 but 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋1 + 𝑋2 ) = 2𝜎 2
Conditions:
(IS) Ex 6b: Question 3:  Total area always = 1
𝑑
It is given that 𝑋1 and 𝑋2 are independent, and ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
𝐸(𝑋1 ) = 𝐸(𝑋2 ) = 𝜇, 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋1 ) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋2 ) = 𝜎 2 𝑐
Find 𝐸(𝑋) and 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋), where 𝑋 =
1
(𝑋1 + 𝑋2 )  Cannot have negative probabilities ∴ graph cannot dip
2
below 𝑥-axis; 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0
Split the variance into individual components
 Probability that 𝑋 lies between 𝑎 and 𝑏 is the area from
1 1 2 1 2
𝑉𝑎𝑟 ( (𝑋 + 𝑋2 = ( ) 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋1 + ( ) 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋2 )
)) ) 𝑎 to 𝑏
2 1 2 2 𝑏
Substitute given values, hence 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 < 𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
𝑎
1 1 1 1
𝑉𝑎𝑟 ( (𝑋1 + 𝑋2 )) = 𝜎 2 + 𝜎 2 = 𝜎 2  Outside given interval 𝑓(𝑥) = 0; show on a sketch
2 4 4 2  𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑏) always equals 0 as there is no area

PAGE 4 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
 Notes: 3.3 The Median
o 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) as no extra area added The Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
o The mode of a pdf is its maximum (stationary point)  Gives the probability that the value is less than 𝑏
(IS) Ex 9a: Question 6: 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑏) or 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑏)
Given that:  Represented by 𝐹(𝑏)
𝑘𝑥(6 − 𝑥) 2<𝑥<5
𝑓(𝑥) = {  It is the integral of 𝑓(𝑥)
0 otherwise 𝑏
i. Find the value of 𝑘 𝐹(𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
ii. Find the mode, 𝑚 −∞
iii. Find 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑚)  Median: the value of 𝑏 for which 𝐹(𝑏) = 0.5
Solution:
Part (i):
Total area must equal 1 hence
5 5
𝑘𝑥 3 2
∫ 𝑘𝑥(6 − 𝑥) = [3𝑘𝑥 − ] =1
2 3 2
125 8
= 75𝑘 − 𝑘 − 12𝑘 + 𝑘 = 24𝑘 = 1
3 3
1
∴𝑘=
24
Part (ii):
Mode is the value which has the greatest probability 4. SAMPLING & ESTIMATION
hence we are looking for the max point on the pdf
𝑑 4.1 Sample & Population
[𝑘𝑥(6 − 𝑥)] = 6𝑘 − 2𝑘𝑥
𝑑𝑥  Population: collection of all items
Finding max point hence stationary point
 Sample: subset of population used as a representation
6𝑘 − 2𝑘𝑥 = 0 of the entire population
1
6( )
24
𝑥= 1
=3 4.1 Central Limit Theorem
2 (24)
 If (𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , … , 𝑋𝑛 ) is a random sample of size 𝑛 drawn
∴ mode = 3 from any population with mean 𝜇 and variance 𝜎 2 then
Part (iii): the sample has:
𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑚) can be interpreted as 𝑃(−∞ < 𝑋 < 𝑚) Expected mean, 𝜇
𝑚 3 3 𝜎2
𝑘𝑥 3 2 Expected variance,
∫ 𝑘𝑥(6 − 𝑥) = ∫ 𝑘𝑥(6 − 𝑥) = [3𝑘𝑥 − ] 𝑛
−∞ 2 3 2 It forms a normal distribution:
1 2
33 2
23 13 𝜎2
= (3(3 ) − − 3(2 ) + ) = 𝑋̃~𝑁 (𝜇, )
24 3 3 36 𝑛
(IS) Ex 10f: Question 12:
3.2 Mean & Variance The weights of the trout at a trout farm are normally
 To calculate mean/expectation distributed with mean 1kg & standard deviation 0.25kg
∞
a. Find, to 4 decimal places, the probability that a trout
𝐸(𝑋) = ∫ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
−∞ chosen at random weighs more than 1.25kg.
 To calculate variance: b. If 𝑌̅kg represents mean weight of a sample of 10
o First calculate 𝐸(𝑋) then 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) by trout chosen at random, state the distribution of 𝑌̅:
∞
𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = ∫ 𝑥 2 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 evaluate the mean and variance.
−∞ Find the probability that the mean weight of a
o Substitute information and calculate using sample of 10 trout will be less than 0.9kg
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − 𝐸(𝑋)2
PAGE 5 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
Solution: 1 (Σ𝑥)2
Part (a): 𝜎2 = (Σ𝑥 2 − )
𝑛 𝑛
Write down distribution Using the divisor (𝒏 − 𝟏)
𝑋~𝑁(1, 0.252 )  Appropriate to use when data is given for a sample and
Write down the probability they want you are estimating variance of the whole population
𝑃(𝑋 > 1.25) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1.25)  The quantity calculated 𝑠 2 is known as the unbiased
Standardize and evaluate estimate of the population variance
1.25 − 1 1 (Σ𝑥)2
1 − 𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 0.1587 𝑠2 = (Σ𝑥 2 − )
0.25 𝑛−1 𝑛
Part (b):
Write down initial distribution 4.4 Percentage Points for a Normal
𝑋~𝑁(1, 0.252 ) Distribution
For sample, mean remains equal but variance changes  The percentage points are determined by finding the
Find new variance 𝑧-value of specific percentages
𝜎2 0.252
Variance of sample = = = 0.00625  E.g. to find the 𝑧-value of a 95% confidence level, we can
𝑛 10
Write down distribution of sample see that the 5% would be removed equally from both
sides (2.5%) so the 𝑧-value we would actually be finding
𝑌̅~𝑁(1, 0.00625)
would be of 100% − 2.5% = 97.5%
Write down the probability they want
𝑃(𝑌̅ < 0.9)
Standardize and evaluate
Standardized probability is negative so do 1 minus
0.9 − 1 0.1
𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝑍 < ) = 0.103
0.00625 0.00625
Percentage Points Table
4.2 Point Estimate & Confidence Interval Confidence level 90% 95% 98% 99%
 A point estimate is a numerical value calculated from a 𝒛-value 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576
set of data (sample) which is used as an estimate of an
unknown parameter in a population 4.5 Confidence Interval for a Population
 Examples of point estimates are: Mean
𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
Sample mean 𝑥̅ → population mean 𝜇 Sample taken from a normal population distribution with
𝑟 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
Sample proportion 𝑛 → population proportion 𝑝 known population variance
𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
𝜎 𝜎
Sample variance 𝑠 2 → population variance 𝜎 2 (𝑥̅ − 𝑧 , 𝑥̅ + 𝑧 )
√𝑛 √𝑛
 Point estimate close to population value but not exact  𝑧 is the value corresponding to the confidence level
 We can determine a confidence interval where the required and 𝑛 is the sample size
population value is likely to lie in (𝑥̅ − 𝛿, 𝑥̅ + 𝛿)  The confidence interval calculated is exact
Large sample taken from an unknown population
4.3 The Variance distribution with known population variance
 Variance can be calculated/given for either a sample or a  By the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of 𝑋̅ will
population and there is a difference between them be approximately normal so same method as above
Using the divisor 𝒏 𝜎 𝜎
 This is appropriate to use when (𝑥̅ − 𝑧 , 𝑥̅ + 𝑧 )
√𝑛 √𝑛
o data is given for the whole population and you are  The confidence interval calculated is an approximate
interested in the variance of the whole
o data is given for the sample and you are interested in Large sample taken from an unknown population
the variance of just the sample distribution with unknown population variance
PAGE 6 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
 As the population variance is unknown, you must first Solution:
estimate the population variance, 𝑠, using sample data Part (i):
𝑠 𝑠 Find the midpoint of the limits, finding 𝑝
(𝑥̅ − 𝑧 , 𝑥̅ + 𝑧 )
√𝑛 √𝑛 0.1771 − 0.1129
0.1129 + = 0.145
 The confidence interval calculated is an approximate 2
{W13-P71}: Question 2: The midpoint is equal to the proportion of people with
Heights of a certain species of animal are normally high-speed internet use so
distributed with 𝜎 = 0.17m. Obtain a 99% confidence 87
𝑛
= 0.145 ∴ 𝑛 = 600
interval for the population mean, with total width less
Part (ii):
than 0.2m. Find the smallest sample size required.
Using the upper limit, this was calculate by:
Solution:
𝑝𝑞
For a 99% confidence interval, find 𝑧 where 0.1771 = 0.145 + 𝑧√
𝑛
Φ(𝑧) = 0.995 (think of the 1% cut from both sides)
Substituting values calculated (𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝), find 𝑧
𝑧 = 2.576
87 513
Subtract the limits of the interval and equate to 0.2 ×
𝜎 𝜎 0.0321 = 𝑧√600 600 ∴ 𝑧 = 2.233
(𝑥̅ + 𝑧 ) − (𝑥̅ − 𝑧 ) = 0.2 600
√𝑛 √𝑛 Use normal tables and find corresponding probability
𝜎
2 (𝑧 ) = 0.2 Φ(𝑧) = 0.9872
√𝑛
Think of symmetry, the same area is chopped off from
Substitute information given and find 𝑛
0.2 both sides of the graph so
√𝑛 = × 0.17 1 − 2(1 − 09872) = 0.9744
2 × 2.576
𝑛 = 4126.53 ≈ 4130 Hence the 𝛼% confidence is = 97.44%

4.6 Confidence Interval for a Population 5. HYPOTHESIS TESTS

Proportion
 Calculating the confidence interval from a random
sample of 𝑛 observations from a population in which the
proportion of successes is 𝑝 and the proportion of
failures is 𝑞
𝑟
 The observed proportion of success 𝑝̂ is 𝑛 where 𝑟
represents the number of successes
𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
(𝑝̂ − 𝑧√ , 𝑝̂ + 𝑧√ )
𝑛 𝑛
{S10-P71}: Question 2:
A random sample of 𝑛 people were questioned about
their internet use. 87 of them had a high-speed
internet connection. A confidence interval for the
population proportion having a high-speed internet
connection is 0.1129 < 𝑝 < 0.1771.
i. Write down the mid-point of this confidence
interval and hence find the value of 𝑛.
ii. This interval is an 𝛼% confidence interval. Find 𝛼.
5.1 Null & Alternative Hypothesis
 For a hypothesis test on the population mean 𝜇, the null
hypothesis 𝑯𝟎 proposes a value 𝜇0 for 𝜇
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0
 The alternative hypothesis 𝑯𝟏 suggests the way in
which 𝜇 might differ from 𝜇0 . 𝐻1 can take three forms:
𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 , a one-tail test for a decrease
𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0 , a one-tail test for an increase
𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 , a two-tail test for a difference
 The test statistic is calculated from the sample. Its value
is used to decide whether the null hypothesis should be
rejected
 The rejection or critical region gives the values of the
test statistic for which the null hypothesis is rejected
 The acceptance region gives the values of the test
statistic for which the null hypothesis is accepted
 The critical values are the boundary values of the
rejection region
 The significance level of a test gives the probability of
the test statistic falling in the rejection region

PAGE 7 OF 8
 CIE A-LEVEL MATHEMATICS//9709
To carry out a hypothesis test: 5.3 Type I and Type II Errors
 Define the null and alternative hypotheses  A Type I error is made
 Decide on a significance level when a true null
 Determine the critical value(s) hypothesis is rejected
 Calculate the test statistic  A Type II error is
 Decide on the outcome of test depending on whether made when a false
value of test statistic lies in rejection/acceptance region null hypothesis is
 State the conclusion in words accepted
 The test statistic 𝑍 can be used to test a hypothesis  P(Type I error) = significance level
about a population  Calculating P(Type II error):
𝑥̅ − 𝜇 o Firstly, calculate the acceptance region by leaving 𝑥̅ as
𝑧=
𝜎2 a variable and equating the test statistic to the
√
𝑛 significance level
where 𝜇 is the population mean specified by 𝐻0 o Next, calculate the conditional probability that 𝜇 is
 The critical values for some commonly used rejection now 𝜇′ and 𝑥̅ is still in the acceptance region
regions: P(𝑥̅ is in acceptance region | 𝜇 = 𝜇′)
Significance Two-tail One-tail Calculate this by substituting the limit of the
level 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 𝜇 > 𝜇0 𝜇 < 𝜇0 acceptance region as 𝑥̅ (calculated previously) and the
10% ±1.645 1.282 −1.282 new, given 𝜇′ into the test statistic equation and find
5% ±1.960 1.645 −1.645 the probability
2% ±2.326 2.054 −2.054
1% ±2.576 2.326 −2.326

5.2 Testing Different Distributions

 Test for mean, known variance, normal distribution or
large sample
𝜎2
𝑋~𝑁 (𝜇, )
𝑛
o Use general procedure as outlined above
 Test for mean, large sample, variance unknown
𝑠2
𝑋~𝑁 (𝜇, 𝑛 )
o Use the same procedure however must use unbiased
estimate of the population variance, 𝑠
 Test for large Poisson mean
𝜆
𝑋~𝑁 (𝜆, 𝑛)
o Use general procedure but must approximate normal
distribution using the mean given
o Must apply continuity correction
 Test for proportion, large sample (Binomial distribution)
𝑝𝑞
𝑋~𝑁 (𝑝, )
𝑛
o Similar to Poisson approximation; using probability of
success and applying continuity correction

PAGE 8 OF 8
 WWW.
© Copyri
ght2019,2017,2015byZNotes
Fi
rstedion© 2015,byEmi rDemir
han,SaifAs mi&ZubairJ
unj
uni
afort
he2015s
yll
abus
Secondedion© 2017,r ef
orma edbyZubai rJunj
uni
a
Thi
rdedion© 2019,r efor
ma edbyZ NotesT eamforthe2019sy
ll
abus

Thisdoc umentc ontai

nimag esandex cer
ptsoftextfromeduc aonal res
ourcesavail
abl
eont hei n-
ternetandpr intedbooks.Ifyouaret heownerofs uchmedia,textorvis
ual,u l
izedinthi
sdoc u-
mentanddonotac ceptit
sus agethenweur gey out ocontactusandwewoul dimmedi a
telyr e-
placesaidmedi a.
Nopar toft hi
sdoc umentma ybec opiedorre-uploadedtoanot herwebsit
ewithouttheex press,

NOT
ES
wr ienper mis s
ionofthecopy ri
ghtowner.Undernoc ondionsma ythi
sdocumentbedi st
ributed
undert henameoff als
eaut hor(
s)orsoldforfinanc i
algai
n;thedoc umentissol
elymeantforedu-

.
ORG
caonal purposesanditistoremainapr opert
ya vail
abletoall
atnoc ost
.Iti
scurr
ent l
yfr
eelyav ail
-
ablefromt hewebs itewww. znotes
.org

Thi
swor
kisl
ic
ensedunderaCr
eav
eCommonsA r
ibu on-
NonCommer
ci
al
-S
har
eAl
i
ke4.
0Int
er-
naonal
Lic
ense.