Professional Documents
Culture Documents
JPM
JPM
David Lebovitz Gabriela Santos Michael Bell, CFA Vincent Juvyns Marcella Chow Chaoping Zhu,
New York New York London Luxembourg Hong Kong CFA
Shanghai
Meera Pandit, CFA Jack Manley Hugh Gimber, CFA Tilmann Galler, CFA Ian Hui
New York New York London Frankfurt Hong Kong
Jordan Jackson Stephanie Aliaga Ambrose Crofton, Maria Paola Toschi Adrian Tong Shogo Maekawa
New York New York CFA Milan Hong Kong Tokyo
London
Olivia Schubert Nimish Vyas Max McKechnie Elena Domecq Sahil Gauba Agnes Lin
New York New York London Madrid Mumbai Taipei
3,000
2,700
-34%
401%
2,400
20x
+1 Std. dev.: 20.22x
18x
25-year average: 16.87x
Jul. 28, 2022:
16x
17.14x
14x
-1 Std. dev.: 13.51x
12x
10x
8x
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Forward P/E and subsequent 1-yr. returns Forward P/E and subsequent 5-yr. annualized returns
S&P 500 Total Return Index S&P 500 Total Return Index
60% 60%
Jul. 28, 2022: 17.1x
20% 20%
0% 0%
-20% -20%
-40% -40%
R² = 3% R² = 37%
-60% -60%
8.0x 11.0x 14.0x 17.0x 20.0x 23.0x 26.0x 8.0x 11.0x 14.0x 17.0x 20.0x 23.0x 26.0x
S&P 500 earnings per share Percent change in S&P 500, earnings and valuations*
Index annual operating earnings Year-to-date, indexed to 100
$300 110
$275
105
Consensus analyst estimates
$250
Earnings recessions
$225 100
$200
95
$175
$150 90
$125
85
$100
$75 80
40%
2022
24% 22%
19% 19% 15% 15% 17%
20% 13% 15% 11%
5% 6% 4% 6%
0%
0%
-22%
-31%
-40%
-40%
-60%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
S&P 500 profit margins Labor share of income and profit margins*
Quarterly operating earnings/sales Compensation and adjusted after-tax corporate profits as % of GDP
14% 11% 59%
Profit margin 58%
10%
1Q22: 57%
11.9% 9%
12% 56%
Recession 8% 55%
7% 54%
10% 53%
6%
52%
Labor share
5%
51%
8% 4% 50%
'50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
S&P 500 sales per share and PPI for intermediate materials
6% Year-over-year % change, monthly, last 20 years
30%
S&P 500 sales per share
20%
4% PPI – intermediate m aterials
10%
2% 0%
-10%
Correlation**: 80%
0% -20%
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Value vs. Growth relative valuations S&P 500 operating leverage by sector
Rel. fwd. P/E ratio of Value vs. Growth, 1997 - present Impact on operating income from a 1% rise in revenues
1.40
Recession Growth cheap/Value
expensive
Energy 8.9x
Materials 4.2x
1.00
Cons. Staples 1.5x
30x 16%
12%
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
25x
Earnings contribution of the top 10 in the S&P 500
Based on last 12 months’ earnings
20x 36%
32%
10x 20%
16%
5x
12%
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Valuation dispersion between the 20th and 80th percentile of S&P 500 stocks
35
25
20
15
10
5
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
10-year annualized YTD Current P/E vs. 20-year avg. P/E
Large
Large
10.9% 13.6% 15.7% -7.9% -13.8% -20.9%
13.7 15.5 18.5
Mid
Mid
11.3% 12.1% 12.6% -9.9% -14.7% -23.3%
14.4 16.3 20.3
Small
Small
Small
14.7 18.6 25.1
10.0% 10.4% 10.4% -9.9% -16.0% -22.1%
16.9 21.4 35.4
Since market peak (February 2020) Since market low (March 2020) Current P/E as % of 20-year avg. PE
Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth
Large
Large
Large
17.0% 25.0% 27.9% 89.3% 88.8% 86.6% 99.1% 110.8% 125.9%
Mid
Mid
Mid
19.2% 17.9% 9.6% 110.8% 97.5% 70.4% 92.5% 95.0% 108.6%
Small
Small
Small
23.6% 13.9% 2.6% 117.3% 92.0% 66.8% 86.7% 86.9% 71.0%
Cons. Comm. Real Health Cons. S&P 500
Energy Materials Financials Industrials Disc. Tech. Services* Estate Care Staples Utilities Index
S&P weight 4.2% 2.5% 10.6% 7.8% 11.2% 27.9% 8.5% 2.9% 14.6% 6.7% 3.0% 100.0%
Weight
Russell Growth weight 1.4% 1.4% 2.9% 6.9% 16.2% 44.2% 7.8% 1.7% 11.8% 5.6% 0.0% 100.0%
Russell Value weight 7.3% 4.2% 19.5% 10.1% 6.0% 9.4% 8.4% 5.2% 16.8% 7.1% 5.9% 100.0%
Russell 2000 weight 5.6% 4.1% 17.0% 15.4% 10.4% 13.6% 2.8% 7.0% 17.3% 3.4% 3.4% 100.0%
QTD 4.9 4.8 5.7 7.4 14.1 11.8 3.1 8.2 3.7 4.0 4.6 7.7
Return %)
YTD 38.3 -14.0 -14.1 -10.7 -23.4 -18.3 -28.0 -14.8 -5.0 -1.8 4.0 -13.8
Since market peak
55.8 34.2 12.8 16.4 19.5 41.1 1.6 8.2 33.2 25.8 13.3 25.0
(February 2020)
Since market low
253.4 109.9 97.5 99.6 75.0 105.0 42.3 74.4 84.8 65.7 76.0 88.8
(March 2020)
Beta to S&P 500 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0* 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0
β
Correl. To Treas. Yields 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.17* -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3
% ρ
Foreign % of sales 38.1 56.3 21.4 32.5 35.5 59.3 43.5 16.2 36.6 43.7 2.1 41.0
NTM earnings growth 20.8% 1.9% 1.8% 24.3% 18.0% 9.9% 3.9% 8.0% 2.0% 5.3% 4.9% 8.4%
EPS
20-yr. avg. 86.2% 17.8% 21.1% 13.8% 16.6% 14.0% 10.5%* 6.6% 8.7% 7.9% 4.0% 11.4%
Forward P/E ratio 8.4x 13.5x 12.1x 17.1x 25.0x 21.5x 15.7x 19.4x 16.4x 21.0x 20.2x 17.1x
P/E
20-yr. avg. 13.9x 14.7x 12.4x 16.2x 19.0x 18.1x 19.7x* 16.5x 15.1x 17.2x 15.1x 15.5x
Buyback yield 0.8% 2.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 3.3% -1.5% 1.3% 1.4% -0.9% 2.1%
Bbk
20-yr. avg. 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.9% 1.4% -1.3% 1.9% 1.8% -1.0% 1.7%
Dividend yield 3.4% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 3.1% 1.7% 2.6% 3.0% 1.7%
Div
20-yr. avg. 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3%* 4.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
2007 - 2021
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD Ann. Vol.
Sm all Sm all Sm all
Mom en. Min. Vol. Value High Div. Cyclical Value Value Mom en. Mom en. Min. Vol. Cyclical Mom en. Value Defens. Mom en.
Cap Cap Cap
17.8% -25.7% 38.8% 26.9% 14.3% 20.1% 43.2% 17.7% 9.3% 21.3% 37.8% 1.5% 36.3% 29.6% 29.2% 0.8% 11.8% 22.5%
Multi- Sm all
Defens. Defens. Cyclical Min. Vol. Value Min. Vol. Min. Vol. High Div. Cyclical Mom en. Quality Cyclical Cyclical High Div. Quality Value
Factor Cap
17.7% -26.7% 36.9% 18.3% 12.9% 16.8% 38.8% 16.5% 5.6% 16.3% 27.3% -1.6% 34.4% 27.8% 27.6% -5.5% 11.5% 20.7%
Multi- Sm all Multi- Sm all
Quality High Div. Mom en. Defens. High Div. Quality Value Quality High Div. Mom en. Quality Min. Vol. Cyclical Cyclical
Factor Cap Factor Cap
10.1% -27.6% 29.8% 18.2% 10.1% 16.3% 37.4% 14.9% 4.6% 15.9% 22.5% -2.3% 28.1% 20.0% 27.2% -8.6% 11.2% 19.9%
Multi- Sm all Multi- Multi- Multi-
Quality Cyclical Quality Cyclical Cyclical Cyclical Value Defens. Min. Vol. Quality Value Min. Vol. Mom en.
Factor Cap Factor Factor Factor
5.5% -31.2% 27.2% 17.9% 7.5% 15.7% 35.0% 14.8% 2.6% 14.0% 22.2% -2.9% 28.0% 17.1% 25.1% -11.5% 10.5% 17.7%
Sm all Multi- Multi- Multi- Multi- Multi- Multi- Multi-
Min. Vol. Quality High Div. Mom en. Mom en. Mom en. High Div. Cyclical Value Defens.
Cap Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor
4.3% -33.8% 24.9% 15.9% 7.3% 15.1% 34.8% 14.7% 0.7% 13.7% 21.5% -5.3% 27.7% 11.4% 25.0% -12.9% 10.1% 17.7%
Multi- Multi- Sm all
Value Value High Div. Min. Vol. Mom en. Quality Quality Cyclical Min. Vol. High Div. Quality Min. Vol. High Div. High Div. Quality
Factor Factor Cap
1.1% -36.9% 18.4% 14.7% 6.1% 12.8% 34.3% 13.6% 0.4% 10.7% 19.5% -5.6% 26.6% 5.8% 21.9% -16.0% 9.4% 15.7%
Multi- Multi- Sm all
High Div. Min. Vol. Quality Value Min. Vol. High Div. Defens. Defens. Quality Min. Vol. Defens. Min. Vol. Quality Defens. High Div.
Factor Factor Cap
0.0% -39.3% 18.4% 14.2% -2.7% 11.2% 28.9% 13.0% -0.9% 9.4% 19.2% -9.7% 25.5% 5.2% 21.0% -16.4% 9.1% 15.1%
Sm all Sm all Sm all Sm all
Cyclical Mom en. Mom en. Value Cyclical Defens. Defens. Quality Defens. High Div. High Div. Cyclical Value Defens.
Cap Cap Cap Cap
-0.8% -40.9% 17.6% 12.7% -3.4% 10.7% 28.9% 10.7% -4.4% 7.7% 14.6% -11.0% 22.5% 1.7% 14.8% -19.9% 9.1% 13.9%
Sm all Sm all Sm all Sm all
Cyclical Defens. Defens. High Div. Min. Vol. Value Mom en. Defens. Value Defens. Value Mom en. Mom en. Min. Vol.
Cap Cap Cap Cap
-1.6% -44.8% 16.5% 12.0% -4.2% 10.6% 25.3% 4.9% -6.4% 5.1% 12.3% -11.1% 21.4% -0.2% 12.9% -21.0% 8.7% 13.2%
S&P intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns
Despite average intra-year drops of 14.0%, annual returns were positive in 32 of 42 years
40%
34%
31%
30% 29%
30% 26% 27% 26% 27% 26% 27%
26%
23%
20% 20% 19%
20% 17% 16%
15% 15% 14%
12% 13% 13%
11%
9% 10%
10% 7%
4% YTD
3% 4%
1% 2%
0%
0%
-2% -1% -5%
-3% -3%
-10% -7% -7%-6% -6%-5% -6% -6%
-7%
-10%
-8% -8%-8%
-9%
-8% -8% -7%-8% -7%
-9% -10% -10% -10% -11%
-11%
-13% -12% -13% -12%
-14% -15%
-20% -17% -17% -16%
-18% -17%
-20% -19% -19% -20%
-23% -24%
-30% -28%
-30%
-34% -34% -34%
-40% -38%
-50%
-49%
-60%
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Return needed to reach January 2022 peak Bull and bear markets
Current S&P 500 peak is 4797
Bull m arkets Bear m arkets
5-yrs 5.0% 27.5% Mar 2009 401% 131 Feb 2020 -34% 1
4-yrs
100
-26.7%
Financial Crisis:
60 4.0% decline in real GDP
2-yrs
Post-WWII demobilization:
12.7% decline in real GDP
40 -4.0%
-3.1%-2.5% Pandemic recession:
10.1% decline in real GDP
1-yrs -3.4% -1.5%-2.4%
-0.2%
20 -12.7% -3.0%
-0.1%
-2.2% -1.4% -10.1%
-0.4%
0 0-yrs
1921 1927 1938 1949 1958 1970 1980 1991 2009 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Real GDP Components of GDP
Billions of chained (2012) dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2Q22 nominal GDP, USD trillions
$21,000 $26
4.7% Housing
$16,000
$10
68.4% Consumption
$15,000
$6
$14,000
$13,000 $2
$12,000
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 -$2 -4.3% Net exports
Change in confirmed cases and fatalities in the U.S. High-frequency data
7-day moving average % change from comparable week in 2019
900,000 27,000 60%
600,000 18,000
0%
500,000 15,000
-20%
400,000 12,000
-40%
300,000 9,000
-60%
200,000 6,000
0 0 -100%
Feb '20 Jun '20 Oct '20 Feb '21 Jun '21 Oct '21 Feb '22 Jun '22 Feb '20 Jun '20 Oct '20 Feb '21 Jun '21 Oct '21 Feb '22 Jun '22
Residential investment as a % of GDP Business fixed investment as a % of GDP
Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Quarterly, seasonally adjusted
7% 16%
Recession
6% 15%
2% 10%
'68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18
-14% 2020:
Total spending: $5.9tn
$6.0 -15.0%
-10% 2022:
Other: $1,009bn (17%) Borrowing: $1,036bn (18%) -4.2%
$5.0
-6%
Net int.: $399bn (7%) Other: $354bn (6%)
Non-defense
$4.0 Social -2%
disc.: $962bn
(16%) insurance:
$1,465bn (25%) 2%
Defense:
$3.0 $760bn (13%)
Corporate: $395bn (7%) '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30
Social
Security:
$2.0 Federal net debt (accumulated deficits)
$1,212bn (21%)
Incom e: % of GDP, 1940 – 2032, CBO Baseline Forecast, end of fiscal year
Medicare & $2,623bn (45%) 120%
$1.0
Medicaid: 2021:
$1,531bn (26%) 99.6%
100%
$0.0 2032:
Total government spending Sources of financing 109.6%
80%
CBO's Baseline economic assumptions
2022 '23-'24 '25-'26 '27-'32 60%
Real GDP grow th 4.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.7% Forecast
10-year Treasury 2.1% 2.9% 3.3% 3.8% 40%
Headline inflation (CPI) 6.6% 3.0% 2.3% 2.4%
Unem ploym ent 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.5% 20%
'40 '48 '56 '64 '72 '80 '88 '96 '04 '12 '20 '28
Consumer
Consumerbalance
balancesheet
sheet Household debt service ratio
1Q22,
1Q22, trillions
trillionsofofdollars
dollarsoutstanding,
outstanding,not
notseasonally adjusted
seasonally adjusted Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, SA
$180 14%
Total assets: $167.9tn 3Q07 Peak $85.2tn 4Q07: 13.2%
1Q09 Low $74.0tn 13%
$160
12%
1Q80:
Homes: 26% 10.6%
$140 11%
2Q22**:
9.5%
10%
$120 Other tangible: 5% 9%
Deposits: 9% 8%
$100 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Average: 85.6
80
Mar. 2003:
70 +32.8% Oct. 2005:
+14.2% Apr. 2020:
+43.6%
Feb. 1975:
50 +22.2% Nov. 2008: Aug. 2011:
May 1980: Sentiment cycle turning point and subsequent +22.2% +15.4%
12-m onth S&P 500 Index return
Jul. 2022:
+20.0% 51.1
40
'71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Ratio of job openings to job seekers JOLTS quits
Job openings* lagged 1 month divided by unemployed persons, SA Total nonfarm quits, thousands, seasonally adjusted
2.3 5,000
0.8 3,500
3,000
0.5
2,500
2,000
0.3
1,500
May 2022: 1,389
0.0 1,000
'73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Civilian unemployment rate and year-over-year wage growth
Private production and non-supervisory workers, seasonally adjusted, percent
16%
50-year avg. Apr. 2020: 14.7%
Unemployment rate 6.2%
14%
Wage growth 4.0%
12%
Nov. 1982: 10.8%
Oct. 2009: 10.0%
10%
May 1975: 9.0%
4%
2%
6%
3%
0%
-3%
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Contributors to headline inflation
Contribution to y/y % change in CPI, non seasonally adjusted
10%
9.1%
9% 8.6%
8.5%
8.3%
8% 7.9%
7.5%
Transitory?
7.0%
7% 6.8% Energy
6.2%
New and used vehicles
6%
5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
5.3% Food at home
5.0%
5%
4.2% Other
4% Restaurants, hotels
and transportation
3% 2.6%
Shelter
Sticky?
2%
1%
0%
Mar '21 Apr '21 May '21 Jun '21 Jul '21 Aug '21 Sep '21 Oct '21 Nov '21 Dec '21 Jan '22 Feb '22 Mar '22 Apr '22 May '22 Jun '22
The U.S. dollar The U.S. trade balance
U.S. Dollar Index Current account balance, % of GDP
130 -7%
-6%
1Q22: -4.8%
-5%
120
-4%
-3%
Jul. 28, 2022: -2%
110 106.4
-1%
0%
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
100
2%
80
1%
-1%
60
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
'97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21
Change in production and consumption of liquid fuels Price of oil
Production, consumption and inventories, millions of barrels per day WTI crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel
Production 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023* Growth since '19 $160
Jul. 3, 2008:
U.S. 19.5 18.6 18.9 20.2 21.5 10.3% $145.29
OPEC 34.6 30.7 31.7 34.3 35.0 1.3%
$140
Russia 11.5 10.5 10.8 10.4 9.5 -17.0%
Global 100.3 93.8 95.6 100.1 101.6 1.3%
Consumption
$120
Jun. 13, 2014:
U.S. 20.5 18.2 19.8 20.5 20.8 1.2% Jul. 28,
$106.91
China 14.0 14.4 15.3 15.5 16.1 14.6% 2022:
$96.42
Global 100.9 91.8 97.4 99.6 101.6 0.7% $100
Inventory Change -0.6 2.0 -1.8 0.5 0.0
Oct. 3, 2018:
$76.41
U.S. refinery spread $80
Gasoline prices minus WTI crude oil prices, dollars per gallon
$2.50
Jul. 28, 2022: $60
$2.30
$2.30
$2.10
$1.90
$1.70 $40
$1.50
$1.30 Feb. 12, 2009:
$33.98 Feb. 11, 2016:
$1.10 $20 $26.21
$0.90
$0.70
Apr. 21, 2020: $11.57
$0.50 $0
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Global investment in energy transition Cost of wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear and coal
Billions USD, nominal Mean LCOE*, 2021, dollar per megawatt hour
$800 $400
Storage, electrification, carbon capture, other
$600 $300
$500
$400 $200
$300
$200 $100
$100
$0 $0
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Federal funds rate expectations
FOMC and market expectations for the federal funds rate
7%
FOMC June 2022 forecasts
Federal funds rate
Percent
FOMC year-end estimates Long
6% 2022 2023 2024
Market expectations run*
Change in real GDP, 4Q to 4Q 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
FOMC long-run projection*
Unemployment rate, 4Q 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.0
5%
Headline PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 5.2 2.6 2.2 2.0
3.80%
4%
3.40%
3.40%
3.26%
3%
2.50%
2.71%
2.38%
2.45%
2%
1%
0%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 Long run
The Federal Reserve balance sheet
USD trillions
Forecast*
$10
Balance sheet expansion under rounds of quantitative easing (QE), USD billions
$9
Announced Terminated Length (m) Treasuries MBS Loans** Balance sheet
QE1 11/25/2008 3/31/2010 16 $300 $1,074 $0 $1,403
$8
QE2 11/3/2010 6/29/2012 19 $829 -$196 $0 $568
Loans
QE3 9/13/2012 10/29/2014 25 $822 $874 $0 $1,674
$7 QE4 3/23/2020 3/15/2022 24 $3,286 $1,343 $62 $4,779
$6
$5
Other
$4
MBS
$3
$2
Treasuries
$1
$0
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Nominal and real U.S. 10-year Treasury yields
20%
5%
Jul. 28, 2022:
2.68%
5Y UST 7.3%
5-Year 2.69% 1.26% -5.57% 5 0.92 -0.29 -1.7%
TIPS 9.1%
TIPS 0.20% -1.04% -5.54% 10 0.58 0.24 -2.4%
IG Corps 12.1%
U.S. Aggregate 3.42% 1.75% -8.23% 8.6 0.85 0.10 -3.3%
Convertibles 10.0%
IG Corps 4.35% 2.33% -11.80% 11.5 0.46 0.43 5.8%
U.S. HY 12.0%
Convertibles 7.50% 3.66% -16.94% - -0.22 0.87 3.9%
Municipals 9.4%
U.S. HY 7.91% 4.21% -9.80% 5.9 -0.20 0.74
-3.8%
MBS 3.37% 1.98% -5.96% 7.3 0.80 -0.04 ABS 1% fall 5.9%
1.5%
ABS 4.32% 1.96% -2.54% 2.4 -0.41 0.62 1% rise 11.4%
Leveraged Loans
6.3%
Leveraged Loans 8.83% 4.60% -4.06% 2.6 0.06 0.03 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
U.S. Treasury yield curve
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.23%
Jul. 28, 2022 3.02%
3.0% 2.85% 2.81%
2.69% 2.69% 2.68%
2.93%
2.90%
1.94% 1.90%
2.0% Dec. 31, 2021
1.44% 1.52%
1.26%
0.97%
1.0% 0.73%
0.39%
0.19%
0.0%
3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 20y 30y
Default rate and spread-to-worst
Percent
20%
12%
Recession
8%
4%
0%
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20
Yield-to-worst across fixed income sectors
Percent, past 10 years Axis
8.0% 16.0%
6.0% 12.0%
1.0% 2.0%
1.0%
0.0% 0.0%
U.S. Municipals* IG corps MBS ABS Euro IG EMD ($) EMD (LCL) EM Corp Euro HY U.S. HY Leveraged
Treasuries Loans
Developed market central bank bond purchases Market pricing for central bank hikes in 2022
USD billions, 12-month rolling flow Number of 25bp hikes priced into OIS contracts for year-end 2022**
$6,000 15
Forecast*
Fed
Fed 13 BoJ
$5,000
BoJ ECB
ECB 11 BoE
$4,000
BoE
Total 9
$3,000
7
$2,000
5
$1,000
3
$0
1
-$1,000 -1
-$2,000 -3
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 Jul '21 Sep '21 Nov '21 Jan '22 Mar '22 May '22 Jul '22
Yield 2022 Return Global bond market
Correlation USD trillions
Aggregates 7/28/2022 12/31/2021 Local USD Duration
to 10-year $140
Euro Corp. 2.39% 0.52% -7.77% -17.64% 4.8 years 0.27 $40
$30
Euro HY 7.04% 3.55% -10.30% -19.90% 3.40 -0.10
$20
EMD ($) 8.31% 5.27% - -18.63% 6.10 0.25 U.S.: $49tn
$10
EMD (LCL) 6.93% 5.72% -8.77% -14.93% 4.90 0.15
$0
EM Corp. 6.90% 4.11% - -13.44% 5.10 0.15 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Muni tax-equivalent and Treasury yield curves State and local and federal net debt
8.0% % of GDP, 1930-2021, end of fiscal year
120%
80%
5.0%
4.0%
Federal debt
4.0% 60%
3.6%
U.S. Treasury yield curve
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
3.0% 3.2%
2.9% 3.0% 40%
2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
2.0%
Dec. 2021:
14.0%
20%
State and local debt
1.0%
0%
0.0%
3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 20y 30y '30 '36 '42 '48 '54 '60 '66 '72 '78 '84 '90 '96 '02 '08 '14 '20
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns
Despite average intra-year drops of 3.1%, annual returns positive in 42 of 46 years
35%
33
30%
25%
22
20% 19
16 16
15 15
15
15%
12
10 10 10
10% 8 9 9 8 9
8 7 8 8
7
6 6 7 6
5
5% 4 4 4 4 4
3 3 3 2 3 4
1 2
1 0
0%
-1 -1 -1
-1 -2 -1 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-5% -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
-4 -4 -4 -4
-4 -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4
-5
-7
-7 -8
-10% -9
-15% -13
'76 '81 '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16 '21
2007-2021
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD Ann. Vol.
High High High High
EMD LCL. Treas. EMD LCL. TIPS EMD USD Muni Muni EMD LCL. ABS EMD USD TIPS TIPS ABS EMD LCL.
Yield Yield Yield Yield
18.1% 13.7% 58.2% 15.7% 13.6% 17.4% 7.4% 9.1% 3.3% 17.1% 15.2% 2.7% 15.0% 11.0% 6.0% -2.5% 7.4% 11.8%
High High High
TIPS MBS EMD USD Muni EMD LCL. ABS Corp. MBS EMD USD EMD USD Muni Corp. Corp. TIPS EMD USD
Yield Yield Yield
11.6% 8.3% 29.8% 15.1% 10.7% 16.8% -0.3% 7.5% 1.5% 10.2% 10.3% 1.3% 14.5% 9.9% 5.3% -5.5% 6.1% 11.2%
High High High Asset
Treas. Bbg. Agg. ABS EMD USD Treas. MBS EMD USD EMD USD EMD LCL. MBS Treas. Muni MBS EMD USD
Yield Yield Yield Alloc.
9.0% 5.2% 24.7% 12.2% 9.8% 15.8% -1.4% 7.4% 1.2% 9.9% 7.5% 1.0% 14.3% 8.0% 1.5% -6.0% 5.5% 8.7%
Asset
Bbg. Agg. EMD LCL. Corp. Corp. Corp. Corp. MBS Treas. Corp. Corp. Treas. EMD LCL. Bbg. Agg. ABS Muni Corp. Corp.
Alloc.
7.0% -1.9% 22.0% 9.0% 8.1% 9.8% -1.5% 6.1% 0.8% 6.1% 6.4% 0.9% 13.5% 7.5% 1.1% -6.7% 5.5% 6.1%
Asset Asset Asset Asset Asset High Asset
MBS TIPS Corp. Bbg. Agg. Bbg. Agg. Bbg. Agg. Muni Bbg. Agg. Treas. Muni Treas.
Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Yield Alloc.
6.9% -2.4% 18.7% 7.6% 7.8% 7.6% -1.8% 6.0% 0.5% 4.8% 5.4% 0.0% 9.8% 7.1% -0.2% -7.7% 4.3% 5.0%
Asset Asset Asset Asset Asset Asset Asset
Muni Bbg. Agg. TIPS Bbg. Agg. ABS TIPS Bbg. Agg. Corp. Bbg. Agg. TIPS TIPS
Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc. Alloc.
6.2% -2.5% 16.5% 6.5% 7.7% 7.0% -2.0% 5.4% 0.2% 4.7% 5.3% -0.6% 8.7% 6.6% -1.0% -8.2% 4.2% 4.8%
Asset Asset
EMD USD Corp. Muni TIPS EMD USD Muni Muni Treas. Bbg. Agg. Bbg. Agg. TIPS TIPS EMD USD MBS Bbg. Agg. ABS
Alloc. Alloc.
6.2% -4.9% 12.9% 6.3% 7.3% 6.8% -2.6% 5.1% -0.4% 2.6% 3.5% -1.3% 8.4% 5.3% -1.0% -8.8% 3.9% 4.2%
High High Asset
Corp. EMD LCL. TIPS Treas. MBS Bbg. Agg. Treas. TIPS Corp. ABS TIPS Muni Muni Bbg. Agg. MBS
Yield Yield Alloc.
4.6% -5.2% 11.4% 5.9% 6.2% 4.2% -2.7% 3.6% -0.7% 2.0% 3.0% -2.1% 7.5% 5.2% -1.5% -9.8% 3.5% 3.8%
High
Muni EMD USD Bbg. Agg. ABS ABS ABS EMD USD TIPS MBS ABS Corp. Treas. MBS EMD USD Corp. Treas. Muni
Yield
3.4% -12.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.1% 3.7% -5.3% 2.5% -1.4% 1.7% 3.0% -2.5% 6.9% 3.9% -1.8% -11.8% 3.3% 3.7%
High High
ABS ABS MBS MBS MBS TIPS ABS Treas. MBS EMD USD MBS ABS Treas. EMD LCL. ABS Bbg. Agg.
Yield Yield
2.2% -12.7% 5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 2.6% -8.6% 1.9% -4.5% 1.0% 2.5% -4.3% 6.4% 3.4% -2.3% -14.9% 2.9% 3.3%
High High
Treas. Muni EMD LCL. Treas. EMD LCL. EMD LCL. EMD LCL. Muni Treas. EMD LCL. ABS EMD LCL. EMD LCL. EMD USD EMD LCL. MBS
Yield Yield
1.9% -26.2% -3.6% 2.4% -1.8% 2.0% -9.0% -5.7% -14.9% 0.2% 2.3% -6.2% 3.8% 2.7% -8.7% -18.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Weights in MSCI All Country World Index
Returns 2022 YTD 2021 15-years % global market capitalization, float adjusted
Selected Countries
Representation of key sectors in international markets
United Kingdom 4.1 -6.8 19.6 18.5 2.3 1.02 % of index market capitalization
60%
France -8.5 -18.3 29.7 20.6 4.7 1.22 Technology Financials Com modities 48%
-2%
70 -40%
Local currency return
-3% Currency return
65 -45.2%
U.S. - International GDP growth U.S. dollar U.S. dollar return
-4% 60 -60%
'84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
MSCI EAFE and MSCI USA relative performance
U.S. dollar, total return, cumulative outperformance*
400%
374%
(6.1 years)
350% Regime change determined when there is sustained outperformance
U.S. outperformance of one region over the other for a cumulative 12 months.
EAFE outperformance
300%
250%
213%
220%
(6.2 years) (14.7 years)
200%
150%
99%
80% 89% (4.2 years)
100%
(2.5 years) (2.0 years) 64%
36% (7.3 years)
28% 51% (1.4 years)
50% (3.3 years) (4.0 years)
0%
-50%
'71 '76 '81 '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16 '21
International: Price-to-earnings discount vs. U.S. International: Difference in dividend yields vs. U.S.
MSCI AC World ex-U.S. vs. S&P 500 Indices, next 12 months MSCI AC World ex-U.S. minus S&P 500 Indices, next 12 months
10% 2.0%
20 yr. avg. P/E Current P/E Jul. 28, 2022:
ratio ratio 1.8%
5% S&P 500 15.5x 17.1x 1.8%
ACWI ex-U.S. 13.2x 11.9x
+2 Std. dev: 1.6%
0%
1.6%
-10%
Average: 1.2%
Average: -14.8% 1.2%
-15%
1.0%
-20%
-1 Std. dev: -22.5%
-1 Std. dev.: 0.9%
0.8%
-25%
-40% 0.2%
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Global earnings growth Global valuations
Calendar year consensus estimates Current and 25-year next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio
20% 60% 49x
37x
2022 % cyclical sectors* (RHS) 57%
Current
2023 52% 12/31/2021
2024 33x
17% 25-year range
48%
25-year average
15% 45% 29x
14% 14%
39%
25x
33%
21.2x
10%
10% 9% 30% 21x
8%
8% 8%
7% 17x
7% 7% 17.1x 14.7x 14.6x
6%
6%
5% 15% 11.7x
13x 11.8x
4% 12.8x
3%
11.9x
11.2x 11.1x
9x
0% 0% 5x
U.S. China EM Europe Japan U.S. Japan China Europe EM
Returns of thematic indices Revenue exposure vs. country of listing
Total return, U.S. dollar, Dec. 31, 2014 = 100 % of total revenue from home countries
550 80%
65%
European renewable energy 60%
500 60%
51%
U.S. growth 45%
EM Asia tech 40%
450
European luxury goods
AC World ex-U.S. 20%
400
0%
350 Europe Japan U.S. EM
Global 53.5 -
Manufacturing 52.2 -
Services 53.9 -
DM 52.5 -
EM 55.2 -
UK 53.7 52.8
Developed
Italy 51.3 -
Spain 53.6 -
China 55.3 -
Emerging
India 58.2 -
Brazil 59.4 -
Russia 50.4 -
Year-over-year headline inflation by country and region, quarterly
2022
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
May Jun
Global 7.0% -
DM 7.6% -
EM 6.2% 6.7%
12 40%
Oil
10
30%
Coal
8
U.S. Gas
6 20%
EU
Nuclear & Hydro
4
10%
2
Renewables
0 0%
'90 '00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50
Growth of the middle class Regional contribution to middle class growth: 2020 to 2030
Percent of total population Millions of people
100% 1,800
1995 2020F 2030F
32 10 -3
1,600 57
80
79% 79%
80% Rest of
1,400 Asia, 133
72% 73%
1,200
61% China,
60% 453
55%
1,000
India,
21% 400 883
20%
200
4%
1% 0%
0% 0
Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Middle East Central and North America Europe
India Indonesia China Brazil Mexico Africa and North South America
Africa
China real GDP contribution Monetary stimulus: Reserve requirement ratio
Year-over-year % change for GDP, contribution to GDP for components
26%
15% Large banks Small and medium banks
24%
9.4% 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 22%
Investm ent 0.4% -0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 20%
10.6% Consum ption 0.7% 1.1% 3.3% 0.8% 18%
Net exports 3.8% 3.4% 0.2% 0.9% 16%
9.6% Total GDP 4.9% 4.0% 4.8% 2.5% 14%
9.7% 12%
10%
8.0% 10%
8.1% 8%
6.7% 3.9% 7.9% 7.8% 6.8%
7.4%
7.0% 6.9%
6.7% 1.1% 6%
5.1% '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
6.1%
3.3% 1.6% 3.1%
4.1% 3.3% 2.8%
2.6%
1.9% 4.8%
5% Fiscal stimulus: Fiscal deficit*
5.3% 1.3%
% GDP
6.3% 2.3%
4.9% 2.5% 0%
0%
4.2% 5.4% 5.0% 4.4% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 3.5%
3.9% 4.2% 3.3%
0.8% -2%
-2%
2.2%
0.8% -4%
-4%
0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 0.9%
0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -6%
-6%
0% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5%
-4.0%-1.1% -0.2%-0.1% -0.9% 0.2%
-8%
-8%
-10%
-10%
-12%
-12%
-12%
-14%
-14%
-14%
-16%
-16%
-5% -18%
-18%
'10 '11
'10 '11 '12'12 '13'13'14'14'15 '15'16 '16
'17 '17
'18 '18
'19 '19
'20 '20 '22F
'21 '21F
MSCI Emerging Markets Index: Inclusion of China A-shares
EMEA
Latin EMEA 14%
15% Latin Latin
EMEA 12% America Taiwan
12% America America
11% 15% 8%
Taiwan
Taiwan 12% Asia ex-
15% Asia ex-China, Asia ex-China,
China, Korea
Korea & Taiwan Korea & Taiwan Korea
18% 17%
& Taiwan
Korea 13%
12%
17%
Korea Foreign
12% listed
A-shares Foreign H-
Foreign H-shares A-shares 3%
H-shares 2% listed
shares A-
listed 10% 9% 8% 4% P-chips
7% shares
8% P-chips 8% P-chips 15%
8% 5%
Red-chips Red-chips
4% 4% Red-
May 2019 November 2019 June 2022 chips
China: 32% China: 34% China: 32% 2%
U.S. Large Cap 1.00 0.88 0.76 0.18 0.84 0.30 -0.40 0.66 0.43 0.75 0.82 0.76 0.08 0.15
EAFE 1.00 0.89 0.15 0.86 0.30 -0.54 0.72 0.48 0.60 0.86 0.81 0.16 0.15
EME 1.00 0.21 0.81 0.36 -0.67 0.78 0.49 0.48 0.77 0.75 0.36 0.18
Bonds 1.00 0.37 0.86 -0.25 0.65 -0.23 0.35 -0.10 -0.22 0.52 0.04
Corp. HY 1.00 0.45 -0.48 0.87 0.50 0.69 0.76 0.69 0.25 0.08
Munis 1.00 -0.27 0.73 -0.15 0.52 0.10 0.06 0.44 0.04
13%
2% 1.2%
12%
11% 0%
10% HFRI FW Comp.
9% -2% S&P 500 -1.5%
8% 7.70%
-4%
7% -4.2%
6%
-6%
4.7% S&P 500 up S&P 500 down
5% 4.2%
3.7% 3.8% Hedge fund returns in different market environments
4% Average return in up and down months for Bloomberg Agg.
3% 0.9%
1.0%
2% 0.6%
1% 0.5%
0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.5% HFRI FW Comp.
Bloomberg U.S. Agg.
-0.7%
-1.0%
Bloomberg Agg up Bloomberg Agg down
Commodity prices Contribution to global production of commodities
Commodity price z-scores % of global production, latest
-4 -3-4-2 -3-1 -20 -11 02 13 24 5
3 64 75 6
Palladium 40%
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
$59.48$59.48 $152.01$152.01
Commodity Index Index
Commodity
$122.28$120.29 Natural gas 17%
Livestock $16.21$16.21
Livestock $41.63 $41.63 Russia
Fertlizer - potash 16%
$21.66 $22.91
Ukraine
SilverSilver $11.77$11.77 $35.10 $35.10 Platinum 12%
$19.87
$20.67
Agriculture
Agriculture $34.15$34.15 $97.40 $95.42 Crude oil 12%
$70.18$66.63
Nickel 9%
Industrial metalsmetals
Industrial $84.23$84.23 $239.05$239.05
$152.02
$160.72 Gold 9%
Gold Gold $1,049.60
$1,049.60 $2,069.40
$2,069.40
$1,750.30
$1,817.50 Wheat 9% 4%
CrudeCrude
oil oil $11.57$11.57 $123.70$123.70
Fertilizers - nitrogen 8% 0.9%
$96.42
$109.78
Coal 5% 0.3%
Example
Example Low level
Low level High level
High level
Maize 4% 10%
Current
Current
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
U.S. real estate cap rate spreads U.S. vacancy rates by property type
Transaction based, spread to 10y UST, 4-quarter rolling average Percent
5% 18%
Apartment Office
Industrial Retail
16%
4% 14%
12%
3%
10%
Average: 2.9%
8%
2%
Mar. 2022:
2.8% 6%
4%
1%
2%
0% 0%
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
2007 - 2021
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD Ann. Vol.
EM Fixed EM Sm all Sm all EM Large Sm all Large
REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs Cash REITs Com dty. REITs
Equity Incom e Equity Cap Cap Equity Cap Cap Cap
39.8% 5.2% 79.0% 27.9% 8.3% 19.7% 38.8% 28.0% 2.8% 21.3% 37.8% 1.8% 31.5% 20.0% 41.3% 21.9% 10.6% 23.2%
High Sm all Fixed High Large Large Large High DM Fixed EM Large Sm all EM
Com dty. Cash REITs Cash
Yield Cap Incom e Yield Cap Cap Cap Yield Equity Incom e Equity Cap Cap Equity
16.2% 1.8% 59.4% 26.9% 7.8% 19.6% 32.4% 13.7% 1.4% 14.3% 25.6% 0.0% 28.7% 18.7% 28.7% 0.2% 8.7% 22.9%
DM Asset DM EM High EM DM Fixed Fixed Large Large Sm all Large Fixed Sm all
REITs Com dty. REITs
Equity Alloc. Equity Equity Yield Equity Equity Incom e Incom e Cap Cap Cap Cap Incom e Cap
11.6% -25.4% 32.5% 19.2% 3.1% 18.6% 23.3% 6.0% 0.5% 12.0% 21.8% -4.0% 25.5% 18.4% 27.1% -8.2% 7.5% 22.5%
Asset High Large DM Asset Asset Sm all High DM Asset Sm all Asset High
REITs Com dty. Cash Com dty. Com dty.
Alloc. Yield Cap Equity Alloc. Alloc. Cap Yield Equity Alloc. Cap Alloc. Yield
7.1% -26.9% 28.0% 16.8% 2.1% 17.9% 14.9% 5.2% 0.0% 11.8% 14.6% -4.1% 22.7% 10.6% 14.8% -10.6% 6.6% 19.1%
Fixed Sm all Sm all Large Sm all High Sm all DM EM Asset Large Asset DM Asset Asset DM
Cash REITs
Incom e Cap Cap Cap Cap Yield Cap Equity Equity Alloc. Cap Alloc. Equity Alloc. Alloc. Equity
7.0% -33.8% 27.2% 15.1% 0.1% 16.3% 7.3% 4.9% -0.4% 11.6% 14.6% -4.4% 19.5% 8.3% 13.5% -12.7% 6.1% 18.9%
Large Large High Asset Large Asset High Asset EM Fixed DM Large EM Large
Com dty. REITs Cash REITs
Cap Cap Yield Alloc. Cap Alloc. Yield Alloc. Equity Incom e Equity Cap Equity Cap
5.5% -35.6% 26.5% 14.8% -0.7% 16.0% 2.9% 0.0% -2.0% 8.6% 10.4% -5.8% 18.9% 7.5% 11.8% -13.8% 4.8% 16.9%
Large Asset Asset Sm all Asset High High Asset Sm all High High High High DM High
Cash Cash REITs
Cap Alloc. Alloc. Cap Alloc. Yield Yield Alloc. Cap Yield Yield Yield Yield Equity Yield
4.8% -37.0% 25.0% 13.3% -4.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% -2.7% 8.3% 8.7% -11.0% 12.6% 7.0% 1.0% -14.3% 4.1% 12.2%
High DM DM Fixed Fixed EM Sm all Fixed Fixed Fixed Sm all Fixed Asset
REITs Com dty. Com dty. Cash Cash
Yield Equity Equity Incom e Incom e Equity Cap Incom e Incom e Incom e Cap Incom e Alloc.
3.2% -37.7% 18.9% 8.2% -11.7% 4.2% -2.0% -1.8% -4.4% 2.6% 3.5% -11.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.0% -16.0% 4.1% 11.7%
Sm all DM Fixed Fixed EM DM EM DM DM Fixed DM Fixed
Com dty. Cash Com dty. Com dty. Com dty. Cash
Cap Equity Incom e Incom e Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity Incom e Equity Incom e
-1.6% -43.1% 5.9% 6.5% -13.3% 0.1% -2.3% -4.5% -14.6% 1.5% 1.7% -13.4% 7.7% -3.1% -1.5% -16.2% 0.8% 3.3%
EM EM EM EM EM
REITs Cash Cash Com dty. Com dty. Com dty. Com dty. Cash Cash Cash REITs Com dty. Cash
Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity
-15.7% -53.2% 0.1% 0.1% -18.2% -1.1% -9.5% -17.0% -24.7% 0.3% 0.8% -14.2% 2.2% -5.1% -2.2% -17.3% -2.6% 0.7%
Range of stock, bond and blended total returns
Annual total returns, 1950 - 2021
60%
Annual avg. Growth of $100,000 over
50% total return 20 years
Stocks 11.5% $880,148
47% Bonds 5.8% $308,786
40% 43% 50/50 portfolio 9.0% $562,115
30% 33%
28%
20% 23% 21%
19%
16% 16% 17%
10% 14%
12%
1% 6% 5%
0%
1% 2% 1%
-8% -3% -2% -1%
-10% -15%
-20%
-30%
-39%
-40%
-50%
1-yr. 5-yr. 10-yr. 20-yr.
rolling rolling rolling
Equities vs. 60/40 portfolio: Last 20 years’ daily market performance by decile
1.5% 1.20%
S&P 500
1.0% 0.72% 0.71%
60/40 portfolio*
0.43% 0.42%
0.5% 0.22% 0.14% 0.26%
0.05% 0.04%
0.0%
-0.16% -0.06% -0.03%
-0.5% -0.34% -0.26%
-0.67% -0.58%
-1.0%
-1.17%
-1.5%
10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th
0%
REITs EM Equity S&P 500 Small Cap High Yield 60/40 DM Equity 40/60 Bonds Homes Average Inflation Commodity Cash
Investor
Average annualized return on 6-month CD vs. annualized CPI inflation and subcomponents
By decade, derived from subcomponents of the consumer price index
12%
6-mo. CD rate
Headline inflation
6% 5.8%
5.4%
5.5% 5.3% 5.0%
4.1% 4.2%
4% 3.6%
3.3%
3.0%
2.8% 2.9%
2.5%
2.9% 2.1%
2.6% 1.8%
2%
1.8%
0.5% 0.3%
0%
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s so far*
Source: Bankrate.com, BLS, Federal Reserve System, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
6-month CD return is the average annualized return over the period. Headline CPI and subcomponents inflation is based on the annualized change
over the period. *2020s so far is based on annualized change in headline CPI from December 2019 through May 2022. Past performance is not
indicative of comparable future results.
Equity market correlations and yields
Hedge adjusted yield, last 12 months, 10-year correlations, quarterly
9%
U.S. government
U.S. non-government
8%
Higher yielding International Direct lending Convertibles
sectors Alternatives
7%
6%
Euro HY
5%
EM Corp.
APAC Real estate Infra.
4% U.S. Real estate
Europe Real estate Stronger correlation
to equities
3% U.S. corps
0%
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Correlation to S&P 500
Percent of Republicans and Democrats who rate national economic conditions as excellent or good
Percent
100%
Avg. ann. return
Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09 -4.5% Republican / Lean Republican
90% Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17 16.3%
Jan. ’17 – Jan. '21 16.0% Total
80% Jan. '21 - today 5.3%
Democrat / Lean Democrat
Last 30 years 10.6%
Election Day Election Day Election Day
70%
60%
50%
40% 36%
28%
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Asset allocation: Current portfolio positioning Biggest portfolio shifts
Average moderate (60/40) allocation as of June 2022 Largest % allocation changes by Morningstar category, last 3 months**
Other*: 2.0%
Interm. Core Bond 2.5%
Non-U.S.
Cash: 7.8%
Bond: 4.5%
Large Value 1.3%
Cash 0.9%
U.S. Equity:
46.6%
Non-U.S.
Equity:
14.0%
Large Blend -2.7%
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is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies
set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of
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Prepared by: David P. Kelly, Jordan K. Jackson, David M. Lebovitz, John C. Manley, Meera Pandit, Gabriela D. Santos, Stephanie Aliaga, Sahil Gauba, Olivia C. Schubert and Nimish Vyas.
Unless otherwise stated, all data are as of July 28, 2022 or most recently available.
Guide to the Markets – U.S.
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