ULB - Proximus: Team Up 2017, Artificial Intelligence Full Proposal Application Form

Team Up 2017,
Artificial Intelligence
Full proposal application form.
Submit in two double-sided copies + send a digital version

(DOC/ODT format) to funding-request@innoviris.brussels
and jduplicy@innoviris.brussels
ULB - Proximus
Multi-Fidelity Intelligent Network System for crowd monitoring
(MUFINS)
Start date of the project 01/02/2018

Duration of the project 24 months
Budget amount 494.516 €
Requested subsidy 387.596 €
INNOVIRIS - Institute for the encouragement of Scientific Research and Innovation of Brussels Team Up Full proposal
Chaussée de Charleroi 110- 1060 Brussels Project : MUFINS
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Contents
Part A. Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 3
A.1. Drafter(s) of the present funding application ................................................................................. 4
A.2. Identity of the industrial applicant .................................................................................................. 4
A.3. Identity of the academic applicant ................................................................................................. 4
A.4. Description of the project .............................................................................................................. 6
A.5. Start date and duration of the project ............................................................................................ 6
A.6. Amount of the aid .......................................................................................................................... 7
Part B. Presentation of the company ........................................................................................................ 8
B.1. Background and activities ............................................................................................................. 9
B.2. Share capital structure ................................................................................................................ 10
B.3. Size of the company.................................................................................................................... 11
B.4. Financial details .......................................................................................................................... 11
B.5. Explanation of the ability of the company to contribute its financial share .................................. 12
B.6. R&D budget................................................................................................................................. 12
B.7. Statement of debts and payment arrears .................................................................................... 12
B.8. Staff ............................................................................................................................................. 12
B.9. Financial aid from public authorities ............................................................................................ 13
Part C. Presentation of the research partner........................................................................................... 14
C.1. Background and activities ........................................................................................................... 15
Part D. Presentation of the project .......................................................................................................... 20
D.1. Presentation of the project: objectives and technical steps, technological positioning,
implementation ........................................................................................................................................... 21
D.1.1 Origins and objectives of the project ........................................................................................... 21
D.1.2 Technological positioning ............................................................................................................ 24
D.1.3 Implementation of the project ...................................................................................................... 31
D.1.4 Summary of each partner’s contribution/tasks within the project ................................................ 32
D.2. Place(s) where the project will be carried out ............................................................................. 33
D.3. Detailed work programme ........................................................................................................... 34
D.4. Planning ...................................................................................................................................... 46
D.5. Budget ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Part E. Valorisation of the project ............................................................................................................ 49
E.1. Industrial valorisation of the project............................................................................................. 50
E.1.1 Description of the competition – Added value of the solution envisaged by the project ............. 50
E.1.2 Market study................................................................................................................................ 52
E.1.3 Financial plan .............................................................................................................................. 52
E.1.4 Business Plan ............................................................................................................................. 54
E.1.5 Valorisation of the project in BCR ............................................................................................... 55
E.1.6 Sustainability of the results ......................................................................................................... 55
E.2. Academic valorisation ................................................................................................................. 56
Part F. Annexes and signatures ................................................................................................................... 58
F.1. Summary of the annexes to be provided ......................................................................................... 59
F.2. Sworn declaration, undertakings, authorisation and signature ........................................................ 60
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Part A. Overview
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A.1. Drafter(s) of the present funding application
• Philippe De Doncker, Professor, ULB, Wireless Communications Group

• François Horlin, Professor, ULB, Wireless Communications Group
• Jean-François Determe, PhD Student, ULB, Wireless Communications Group
• Seynaeve, Gerdy, Proximus
• Stefania Cappiello, Proximus
• Evi Heeman, Proximus
A.2. Identity of the industrial applicant
Name of the company and legal form Proximus SA
Registered office Boulevard du Roi Albert II, 27 - 1030 Schaerbeek
Enterprise number BE 0202.239.951 Date of incorporation: 19 juillet 1930

Account No. BE75 3100 1420 Industrial sector (NACE code): 61.200; 26.300
(Bank details in annex) 7051 – BBRUBEBB
Telephone: + 32 2 202 41 11 E-mail: see

https://www.proximus.com/en/contact-
page/contact
Website: www.proximus.com
Person legally authorised to bind the company

Surname:Lhostte Firstname: Frederic
Function: Head of Advanced Telco Services
Tel: +32 (477) 20 99 80 E-mail:Frederic.lhostte@proximus.com
Street: Albert II Laan Number: 27B
Post code: 1210 Town: Brussel
Administrative manager for the project

Surname:Heeman Firstname: Evi
Function: Product and Solution Manager Location Insight Services
Tel: +32 (473) 89 77 41 E-mail: evi.heeman@proximus.com
Technical and scientific manager for the project

Surname:Seynaeve Firstname: Gerdy
Function: Innovation and Business Development Manager
Tel: +32 (475) 29 41 97 E-mail:Gerdy.seynaeve@proximus.com
Chaussée de Charleroi 110- 1060 Brussels PROJECT :MUFINS
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A.3. Identity of the academic applicant
Université libre de Bruxelles
Wireless Communications Group
Av. Roosevelt, 50
CP 165/81
1050 Brussels
Person legally authorised to bind the laboratory

Surname: Englert Firstname: Yvon
Function: Rector
Administrative (financial) manager for the project

Surname: Bera Firstname: Laëtitia
Function: Administrative
Tel: 02 650 4485 E-mail: Laetitia.bera@ulb.ac.be
Technical and scientific manager for the project

De Doncker, Philippe
Professor
02 650 30 91
pdedonck@ulb.ac.be
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A.4. Description of the project
Title of the project:

Multi-Fidelity Intelligent Network System for crowd monitoring (MUFINS)
Summary of the project:

An intelligent crowd monitoring system for large public events will be developed. The system will be
based on a multi-fidelity approach: cellular networks will be used as large-scale coarse estimates of the
crowd density, while Wifi access points deployed through the event area will provide small-scale
estimations. By combining the two estimates, the system will be able (i) to provide crowd density and
directional fluxes maps in real-time; (ii) to anticipate abnormal crowd movements, especially for safety
issues, by learning crowd dynamics.
Key words:
Crowd monitoring, wireless communications, machine learning
Area:
c Environment
c ICT
c Health
c Other, please specify: …
A.5. Start date and duration of the project
Project with a duration of 24 months from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2020
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A.6. Amount of the aid
Total budget 494.516 €

Requested subsidy 387.596 €
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Part B. Presentation of the
company
Chaussée de Charleroi 110- 1060 Brussels PROJECT : MUFINS
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B.1. Background and activities
Proximus is a telecommunications & ICT company operating in the Belgian and international markets,
providing services to residential, enterprise and public customers.
We are the leading provider of telephony, internet, television and network-based ICT services in Belgium
through our Proximus and Scarlet brands. Our advanced interconnected fixed and mobile networks offer
access anywhere and anytime to digital services and data, as well as to a broad offering of multimedia
content. We are investing in future-proof networks and innovative solutions, creating the foundations for
sustainable growth. Offering the full range of telecom and ICT, Proximus provides services for residential,
enterprise and public customers. We are active in Luxembourg through our affiliates Telindus Luxembourg
for ICT and Tango for telecom. In the Netherlands we offer ICT services through Telindus Netherlands.
BICS is our affiliate responsible for our international carrier services. Our complementary brands meet
the demands of a wide range of customers.
Our high-quality interconnected fixed and mobile networks offer access anywhere and anytime to digital
services and data, as well as to a broad offering of multimedia content.
Proximus wants to become a digital service provider, connecting everyone and everything so people can
live better and work smarter. Our ambition is to bring new technologies in an easy way to our customers
and improve their lives and work environment. We want to favor a new digital ecosystem, open to
partnerships and collaboration with new emerging players and offer our customers access to new
technologies and their benefits in an easy and customer friendly way. It’s by means of new application led
and service-oriented solutions that customers will experience the true meaning of Proximus’ customer
centricity mission.
It’s our ultimate objective to service our customers and offer them a superior customer experience with a
quality and service that can be experienced through our best quality integrated network, easy to- use and
innovative solutions, best accessibility & local reach, and proactive servicing. We contribute to the
economic, social and environmental development of the society in which we operate.
An overview of the profile and experience of key persons of the company is available via the following
link: https://www.proximus.com/en/group/governance/executive-committee.
The company was established as an autonomous public sector company, governed by the Law of 19 July
1930 setting up the Belgian National Telephone and Telegraph Company, the RTT (Régie des Téléphones
et Télégraphes/Regie van Telegraaf en -Telefoon). The transformation of Belgacom into a SA of public
law was implemented by the Royal Decree of 16 December 1994, which was published in the Belgian
Official Gazette on 22 December 1994, and went into effect on the same day. In April 2015, at the Annual
Shareholders Meeting, the shareholders of the company voted in favour of changing the company name
from Belgacom to Proximus. This change has been effective as of 22 June. Next to Proximus PLC under
Belgian Public Law, the Proximus Group encompasses the affiliates Scarlet, Tango, BICS and Telindus
International. An overview of the Company evolution is available here:
https://www.proximus.com/en/group/profile#title-8.
Extended information on the evolution of our activities, personnel headcounts and revenues is available
via the following link: http://www.proximus.com/en/investors/reports-and-results.
An overview of the company structure is available below:
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Activities
For an overview of our activities, we are referring to the website of the company (www.proximus.com)
and to the information available in our last Annual report
(https://www.proximus.com/sites/default/files/Documents/annual_report/2016/2016-%20Annual%20Rep
ort.
B.2. Share capital structure
Amount of capital 1.000.000€k
Business name Identity Percentage or number of shares

Proximus Own shares 4,6% X
Belgian State 53,5% X
Free float Stock exchange 41,9% X
Total of the shares 100%
Explanation of the evolution in the shareholding in recent years
Proximus is a Quoted Company. We refer to the last Activity Report for a detailed information on this
aspect:
https://www.proximus.com/sites/default/files/Documents/annual_report/2016/2016-%20Annual%20
Report.pdf
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B.3. Size of the company
Size of the company

c VSE (microentreprise)
c SE
c ME
c LE
B.4. Financial details
Year 2016* 2015 2014

Equity (in €k) 2.043.044 2.075.498 1.965.219
[Balance sheet codes 10/15]
Turnover (in €k) 4.034.986 4.025.691 3.964.134
[Balance sheet code 70]
Operating income, EBIT (in €k) 205.985 374.350 419.110
[Balance sheet code 9901]
• Provisional figures if not yet published
• The official annual accounts of the past 3 years are available via the following link:
http://www.proximus.com/en/investors/reports-and-results .
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B.5. Explanation of the ability of the company to contribute its financial share
The company will finance its share of the project through own funds. See Proximus SA' balance sheet on
31/12/2016 indicating the amount of own funds, as well as Proximus SA' balance sheet assets on
31/12/2016 indicating the amount of available values.
B.6. R&D budget
Year 2016* 2015 2014

Total R&D budget (in €k) Not available 83.531,9 104.700
(including public aid)
R&D budget in BCR (in €k) Not available 83.531,9 104.700
Public aid for R&D from BCR (in €k) 14,5 12,8 0
B.7. Statement of debts and payment arrears
See Proximus SA' balance sheet on 31/12/2016 and the Appendix to the Annual Accounts, which
indicates that Proximus SA has no tax / NSSO liability expired on 31/12/2016.
B.8. Staff
Year 2016* 2015 2014

Total staff (in FTE) 12.670,60 13.013,90 13.065,40
university graduates (FTE) 4.564,1 4.498,1 4.642,6
higher education (FTE) 2.535,9 2.613,5 2.458,9
other (FTE) 5.570,6 5.902,3 5.963,9
salaried staff (in FTE) 12.670,60 13.013,90 13.065,40
[Social balance sheet code 105]
self-employed persons (in FTE)
Staff in the BCR (in FTE) 7005,21 7134,71 7079,22
R&D staff in the BCR (in FTE) 120,36 118,9 130,55
university graduates (FTE) 4564,1 4498,1 4.642,60
higher education (FTE) 2535,9 2613,5 2.458,90
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B.9. Financial aid from public authorities
• Innoviris

No. dossier Title of the project Subsidy (EUR)
68.928 EUR**
2015-DS-20
Shift-TV
40%
2017-R-35
BoSS (ICON instrument) - file under evaluation
178.295 EUR
65%

• Other aid in the BCR (Brussels Economy and Employment, BIE, SRIB/finance.brussels, SDRB/citydev,
Participation Fund, Guarantee Fund, etc.):

Authority No. dossier Subsidy (+ period) EUR

• Aid from other regions/federal aid:
Authority No. dossier Subsidy (+ period) EUR

IWT / Vlaio Linear 5y /
iMove 2y 331.480 EUR
LeyLab 3y /
UpTEmPo 2y (2016-2018) 239.383 EUR
• European aid:
Programme No. dossier Subsidy (+ period) EUR

H2020 SPECIAL - 3y (2017-2019) 265.500
731601 EUR
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Part C. Presentation of the
research partner
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C.1. Background and activities
The OPERA department has been created at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) in 2007. It is
composed of three research units specialized in the fields of acoustics, photonics, and wireless
communications. The wireless communication group (WCG) owns expertise in three complementary
domains: (i) propagation channel characterization and modeling (Pr. Philippe De Doncker); (ii) signal
processing for digital communications (Pr. François Horlin); (iii) network architectures (Pr. Jean-Michel
Dricot). Today, 16 people are working in the group. The WCG collaborated with several research centers
and companies during the past five years such as IMEC, Thalès Alenia Space, Alcatel Lucent Bell Labs,
Macq S.A., FN, NSilition, Zetes RFIDea, and IBA. At international level, several PhD theses are ongoing
in co-supervision with UPMC (Paris), Télécom ParisTech and UBC (Vancouver).
The MUFINS project builds on the complementary expertise owned by the group in the fields of channel
characterization and signal processing for wireless communications systems. From the channel modeling
point of view, our experience spans propagation studies over a wide range of frequencies (from UHF to
60GHz) and scenarios (from urban propagation to Body Area Networks), including uncertainty studies
based on the polynomial chaos theory. Recent studies of the group also concern the modeling of public
exposure to electromagnetic fields either indoor or outdoor in the Brussels Region, in collaboration with
IBGE. The group owns a comprehensive knowledge of the modulation and access techniques deployed
in personal, local, and cellular wireless communications systems. While many of our contributions
addressed the design of air interfaces for 3G and 4G systems, we are investigating their extension to 5G
systems. The group actively contributed to the design of efficient transceivers that can cope with the
channel and hardware impairments.
Besides our efforts to design and analyze new wireless communications systems, we also investigate
localization systems relying on the communication signals. Our group took part in several applied projects
within the framework of wireless localization, most of them being funded by Wallonia; those projects
include JIRA (efficient localization algorithm for visitors in museums), TempTrack (tracking of pharma and
bio materials), Trasilux (secure tracking of high-end goods), C3M (tracking of workers in maintenance
areas), and PIST (wireless localization for railway).
Experience in the research area
The WCG group is currently working with Brussels Major Events (BME) on the development of a crowd
monitoring system based on Wifi in the context of mass events. A first prototype was deployed in Brussels
during « Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret » festivities in December 2016-January 2017. Further developments
will be carried out during this summer 2017 in the framework of student internships. The goal of the
MUFINS project will be to this pre-existent system, to complement it with a cellular infrastructure, and to
make it intelligent as described in part D of this proposal.
The MUFINS project will be part of a bundle of currently active projects in the field of wireless localization
in the WCG:
• Feder project "Channel Aware Localization for 5G Networks" aiming to develop a localization
system taking into account the system uncertainties (Feder ICITY-RDI.BRU program), 2015-2020;
• Project "COPINE, which consists in developing a wireless joint localization and power transfer
system (Innoviris BRIDGE program), 2017-2020;
• A team of 3 researchers, funded by FNRS, FRIA and ULB, studying efficient localization through
public cellular networks.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that a spin-off, Amoobi, stems from the group activities. Amoobi provides
retailers with a customer behavior analysis solution based on customer positions (estimated with
Bluetooth and Wifi). The company was founded five years ago. It currently hires 12 people and has a first
international settlement in Great Britain. Its clients are major actors of the retail industry as Delhaize,
Carrefour, MediaMarkt, etc.
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Scientific background related to MUFINS
The goal of the present project is to build a crowd monitoring system based on the opportunistic analysis
of the communications signals transmitted by smartphones, and on machine learning strategies. Our
past scientific experience on the design of wireless communications and localization systems on one
hand, and on the use of applied statistics algorithms on the other hand will be highly valuable in this
context.
In the framework of statistical localization techniques, two very recent results obtained by the group are
worth mentioning. Localization process of a mobile terminal consists in first estimating the power, time, or
angle-of arrival of the received signal and then applying multi-lateration algorithms to compute the position
from the estimates. Recently, we showed that proceeding using two distinct steps (time/angle-of-arrival
estimation followed by the multi-lateration) is sub-optimal. Significant gains in localization accuracy can
be obtained by iterating between the two steps: the location estimate obtained at one iteration can be
used as prior information to estimate the time or angle of arrival at the next iteration by relying on the
Bayes estimation framework [1]. Another important result concerns the inclusion of system uncertainties
in the multi-lateration step. We applied with success a regression technique based on the polynomial
chaos theory to estimate on-line the localization uncertainty of a mobile knowing the measurement
uncertainty at each sensor of the localization system [2].
Jean-François Determe will work on The MUFINS project will benefit from the past experience of Jean-
François Determe who is completing his PhD and who will be in charge of MUFINS. In his PhD Thesis,
Jean-François Determe studied support recovery for underdetermined systems. Sparse signals are
expressible using few elements from a given dictionary; in particular, the number of dictionary elements
to be used for expressing the signals of interest is significantly lower than the number of dimensions these
signals possess. Computing sparse representations is particularly interesting for high-dimensional signals
in that it allows to fully describe them using a number of parameters significantly lower than their number
of dimensions. The sparse recovery problem is mathematically equivalent to measuring signals by means
of a linear measurement process which returns significantly less measurements than the number of
dimensions (research field entitled compressive sensing). A significant expertise was acquired in greedy
algorithms, which aim to find sparse representations of signals. J-F Determe has developed a deep
knowledge of orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) and its extension to multiple measurement vector
(MMV) models, simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit (SOMP). SOMP has notably been used to
perform spectrum sensing at sub-Nyquist rates. Performance of SOMP was studied both in the noiseless
[3, 4] and noisy cases [5], the latter involving additive Gaussian measurement noise with possibly different
variances for each measurement channel. A noise stabilization technique was also proposed to be used
in conjunction with SOMP for when the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) are different for each measurement
channel/measured signal. J-F Determe is currently working on support reduction, a process that reduces
the number of atoms intervening in a pre-computed sparse representation by eliminating the atoms picked
solely for mapping a particular realization of the noise. To perform support reduction, a cross-validation
(CV) methodology is used and expectation-maximization (EM) for Gaussian mixture models (GMM). The
support reduction algorithm is independent of the particular algorithm used to compute the sparse
representation we wish to reduce.
The group also has a long experience in statistics applied in other fields of telecommunication and
propagation.
1. Statistical models of systems
1.A Propagation
In the propagation framework, Gaussian process methods were applied to model the public exposure to
EM radiations. The exposure to the total electric field was modeled as a spatial Gaussian process whose
structure was described by a variographic analysis. The relationship between the variogram and the
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cellular network infrastructure was pointed out [6]. Gaussian processes were also applied to body
exposure estimation by modeling the specific absorption rate as a gaussian process in the radiation angle-
of-incidence domain. Sensitivity analysis of the specific absorption rate was carried out using Sobol’s
theory [7].
1.B Linear and non-linear channel models, including for the transceiver
When designing wireless communications systems, the impact of hardware components cannot be
neglected. The implementation of the transceiver comes with imperfections that lower the performance of
the communication or localization system. Interestingly enough, some of the imperfections can be
estimated and compensated digitally, as we have demonstrated in [8]. Such compensations allow
manufacturers to design transceivers of lower cost as that imperfections in the analog components
become acceptable if they can be compensated for by digital signal processing.
A good understanding of the origin of the effects is key to build representative statistical models, on the
basis of which compensation algorithms can be designed [9]. Some linear effects can be assumed to be
deterministic variables, such as IQ imbalance. Other effects are assumed to be random variables (whose
distributions are known), such as the noise introduced in the amplifiers, which can be modelled using
Gaussian random processes. Finally, some effects are varying over time, such as the phase of the local
oscillators, and require using more intricate models, such as those based on Markov chains.
Power amplifiers can also be used in their non-linear regime to improve power efficiency. A non-linear
channel with memory is often modelled with a Volterra series [10]. While the channel memory stems from
the filters at the ground stations, the non-linearity finds its origin in the amplifier aboard the satellite, which
is often operating close to its saturation point to improve the link budget from the satellite to the ground
receiver.
1.C Abstract models, such as neural networks
One of the main advantages of neural networks is their ability to model complex non-linear systems thanks
to their structure. However, they contain a lot of parameters to be fixed; these parameters include the
weights for every connection. This may render the training task, which estimates the network parameters,
unrealistically difficult.
We showed that the neural networks for which only the output mask is trained (and therefore not the input
mask, nor the connections between the neurons) is suited to modeling a satellite non-linear channel with
memory [11]. In our studies, the network topology is a ring and we target an optical implementation [12].
2. Parameter and system identification
2.A Synchronization, channel estimation based on pilot symbols
Before the communication takes place, the channel corrupting the transmitted signal, which encompasses
both the propagation channel and the transceiver, should be estimated and compensated. The transmitter
and the receiver should also be synchronized in time and frequency. Besides the data symbols containing
the information communicated on the link, predefined pilot symbols are often transmitted for channel
estimation and synchronization purposes.
We proposed an efficient channel estimation method for multi-user 4G communication systems [13]. The
channel estimator has been designed according to the maximum-likelihood criterion. We also showed
how the channel estimates can be used to mitigate multi-user interference by exploiting the code or space
dimensions [14, 15]. Regarding the synchronization, we worked on integrated synchronization
architectures and investigated how the different synchronization algorithms should be ordered [16]. In
particular, we showed that the expectation-maximization is a reliable, low-complexity algorithm to jointly
acquire two synchronization errors at a reasonable complexity [17].
2.B Adaptive algorithms for equalizer training
When the channel equalizer structure is more complex, as is the case for non-linear Volterra models or
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for neural networks, it is more efficient to directly train the equalizer on the pilots and data rather than
analytically computing the equalizer based on a channel estimate obtained beforehand.
We applied adaptive algorithms, such as the least-mean square (LMS) and recursive-least square (RLS)
algorithms, to train equalizers having either a Volterra structure [18] or a neural network [19] structure to
compensate for the DVB-S2 satellite channel, which is non-linear and possesses memory. In both cases,
the optimization targeted the minimization of the symbol estimation error variance.
2.C Learning for cognitive radios
Cognitive radios have been proposed as a new technology to counteract the spectrum scarcity issue and
increase the spectral efficiency. In cognitive radios, the unused (yet assigned) frequency bands are
opened to secondary users, provided that the interference induced on the primary licensees is negligible.
Cognitive radios proceed using two steps: the radios firstly sense the available frequency bands by
detecting the presence of primary users and secondly communicate using the bands that have been
identified as being unused by the primary users.
We investigated how to improve the efficiency of cognitive radio networks when multiple cognitive radios
cooperate to sense the spectrum or control their interferences. We proposed distributed learning
algorithms allowing us to allocate the primary network sensing times and the secondary transmission
powers within the secondary network [20]. We adopted the reinforcement learning strategy, for which the
interactions of each radio with its environment are done by trials-and-errors; the environment is modeled
as a finite-state discrete time Markov decision process.
[1] Horlin, F., Van Eeckhaute, M., Van der Vorst, T., Quitin, F., Bourdoux, A., De Doncker, P. (2017, June).
Iterative ToA-based Terminal Positioning in Emerging Cellular Systems. Proc. of the IEEE International
Conference on Communications. Paris, France.
[2] T. Van der Vorst, M. Van Eeckhaute, A. Benlarbi-Delaï, J. Sarrazin, F. Horlin, Ph. De Doncker (2017,
March), Propagation of Uncertainty in the MUSIC Algorithm Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions. Proc.
of EUCAP, Paris, France
[3] Determe, J.-F., Louveaux, J., Jacques, L., Horlin, F. (2016, January). On The Exact Recovery
Condition of Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. IEEE signal processing letters, 23(1), 164-168.
[4] Determe, J.-F., Louveaux, J., Jacques, L., Horlin, F. (2016, November). Improving the Correlation
Lower Bound for Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. IEEE signal processing letters, 23(11),
1642-1646.   
[5] Determe, J.-F., Louveaux, J., Jacques, L., Horlin, F. (2016, November). On the Noise Robustness of
Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. IEEE transactions on signal processing, 65(4), 864-875.
[6] Lemaire, T., Wiart, J. J., De Doncker, P. (2016, octobre). Variographic analysis of public exposure to
electromagnetic radiation due to cellular base stations. Bioelectromagnetics, 37(8), 557-562
[7] Jawad, O., Lautru, D., Benlarbi-Delaï, A., De Doncker, P. (2015). Sensitivity of whole body dosimetry
to channel model parameters. IEEE transactions on antennas and propagation, 63(8), 3654-3661
[8] Horlin, F., Bourdoux, A. (2008). Digital compensation for analog front ends: a new approach to wireless
transceiver design. John Wiley and Sons.
[9] Horlin, F., De Rore, S., Lopez-Estraviz, E., Naessens, F., Van der Perre, L. (2006, June). Impact of
Frequency Offsets and IQ imbalance on MC-CDMA Reception based on Channel Tracking. IEEE journal
on selected areas in communications, 24(6), 1179-1188.  
[10] Deleu, T., Dervin, M., Kasai, K., Horlin, F. (2014, July). Iterative pre-distortion of the non-linear
satellite channel. IEEE transactions on communications, 62(8), 2916-2926.  
[11] Bauduin, M., Vinckier, Q., Massar, S., Horlin, F. (2016, July). High Performance Bio- Inspired Analog
Equalizer for DVB-S2 Non-Linear Communication Channel. Proc. of the 17th International Workshop on
Signal Processing Advances in Wireless Communications. Edinburgh, UK  
[12] Bauduin, M., Smerieri, A., Massar, S., Horlin, F. (2015, May). Equalization of the Non-Linear Satellite
Communication Channel with an Echo State Network. Proc. of the 81st Vehicular Technology
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Conference. Glasgow, UK  
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[14] Horlin, F., Bourdoux, A., Lopez-Estraviz, E., Van der Perre, L. (2008, September). Single-Carrier
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[17] Horlin, F., Bourdoux, A., Lopez-Estraviz, E., Van der Perre, L. (2008, June). Low- Complexity EM-
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Team
Philippe De Doncker received the Ph.D. degree from the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) in 2001. In
2002 he did a post-doc internship at Supélec, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. He was appointed Professor at the
ULB in 2004 where he founded a research team focusing on electromagnetics and wireless channel
modeling. Philippe De Doncker is author or co- author of more than 200 papers published in peer-
reviewed journals and proceedings of international conferences. This project will benefit from Philippe De
Doncker’s expertise in the fields of propagation, channel modeling, and wireless localization.
François Horlin received the Ph.D. degree from the Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) in 2002. He
specialized in the field of signal processing for digital communications. After receiving his Ph.D., he joined
the Inter-University Micro-Electronics Center (IMEC). He led the project aiming to developing a 4G cellular
communication system in collaboration with Samsung Korea. In 2007, François Horlin became professor
at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). He is currently supervising a research team working on next-
generation communication systems. He chaired the IEEE Signal Processing chapter of the Benelux from
2010 to 2016. Since 2017, he is vice dean for research at the Ecole Polytechnique de Bruxelles (EPB).
Jean-François Determe received the electrical engineering degree (Master en ingénieur civil
électricien) from Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) in 2013. He is currently a PhD student (FNRS
research fellow) with the OPERA-WCG department at ULB and with the ICTEAM institute at Université
catholique de Louvain (UCL). He will complete his PhD by December 2017. He received the Henry-Volt-
Ampere award in 2013, which rewards the student who obtained the highest average mark in electrical
engineering. In 2016, he also has been awarded the Best Student Presentation Award at the 6th joint
WIC/IEEE SP Symposium on Information Theory and Signal Processing in the Benelux.
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Part D. Presentation of the project
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D.1. Presentation of the project: objectives and technical steps, technological positioning,
implementation
D.1.1 Origins and objectives of the project
Objectives
Mass events are very important and symbolic events in the life of any dynamic city. Brussels has a long
tradition of event organization, with mass events organized all year round: Plaisirs d’Hiver/Wintepret,
Bruxelles-les-Bains/BrusselBad, Brussels Summer Festival, Fêtes de l’Iris/IrisFeest, Fête de la
Communauté française,..
From 2000 onwards, it was unfortunately observed that disasters occurring during such mass events are
significantly increasing worldwide [Helbing2005]. This trend will certainly last, due to the risky period we
all know. The very organization of mass events so becomes questionable, and the organizers are faced
with heavier and heavier constraints related to safety. Many of these constraints can be readily addressed
either during event preparation (as the choice of the event area, or of contingency plans), or during the
event (as appropriate fencing). But one important safety issue can only be roughly addressed: efficient
crowd monitoring and management.
Crowd monitoring and management is currently carried out by visual inspection of the event at strategic
points. To give an illustrative example, Brussels Grand-Place can afford a maximal number of 6000
people. This number is estimated by visual inspection of the Grand-Place, which is not efficient, obviously.
The main objective of the MUFINS project is to develop an intelligent crowd monitoring system for large
public events. The system will be based on a multi-fidelity approach: cellular networks will be used as
large-scale coarse estimates of the crowd density and movements, while Wifi access points will provide
small-scale estimations. By combining the two estimates, the system will be able:
1. To provide crowd density and directional fluxes maps in real-time.
2. To anticipate and mitigate abnormal crowd behaviors, especially for safety issues, by learning
crowd dynamics and proposing mitigation actions.
To reach these two objectives, a dedicated set of Wifi Access Points that are able to analyze the
smartphones signals in a local area and in real-time will be developed. In parallel, a real-time solution for
cellular network positioning will be built. By combining these large-scale and small-scale data, predictive
models will be developed.
Event organizer Brussels Major Events (BME) will support the project by providing the inputs required to
define the system specifications for real-world scenarios. It will also provide access to large events
organized in Brussels, like “Plaisirs d’hiver/Winterpret”, Brussels Summer Festival (BSF), or “Bruxelles-
les-bains/Brussel-bad” in order to deploy the MUFINS system in real mass events.
The system will be developed in an iterative way: improved prototypes will be installed on a periodical
basis during events organized by BME, at least twice a year during “Plaisirs d’hiver/Winterpret” and BSF.
This will allow the partners to identify the best strategies to address the scientific and technical challenges,
while targeting field applications.
Crowd monitoring
Crowd safety management is closely linked to the understanding of crowd dynamics. Three risky
behaviors have been identified when thousands of people are gathering in a given area [Helbing2005].
First, panic behavior that occurs if some sudden event makes people behave irrationally, believing their
life is in danger. Next, stampede situations occurring when a crowd starts rushing massively towards a
single point where crushes are likely to appear. But the main danger is the appearance of what is called
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crowd turbulence.
Crowd turbulence is a phenomenon that can be explained by the fact that unintentional forces act on each
individual body in a crowd due to interactions with neighbors [Schadsneider2008]. When the crowd
density is low, this social force is negligible and the crowd behaves like a laminar flow, without any danger.
But when the crowd density becomes higher, this force becomes the dominant cause of people
movements. People can then be moved several meters away by the crowd in a totally uncontrolled way.
This turbulence causes people falling, and, eventually, a disaster by domino effect [Helbing2012].
The transition from laminar to turbulent is progressive [Johansson2008]. As detailed in [Wirz2013], for
-2
crowd densities below 2 m people flow is laminar. Above this value, people start slowing down and jams
-2
occur. Around 3.5 m stop-and-go waves appear: people are periodically and locally stopped while
-2
walking. Above 5.5 m turbulence occurs. These thresholds also depend on the people velocity, and for
-2
static crowds, turbulence appears at a higher density of around 7 m .
What is important to note is the fact that turbulence can be anticipated and mitigated [Johansson2008]:
changes in crowd density can be used to detect turbulence build-up, and to mitigate it by appropriately
re-routing people.
Consequently, the need for a real-time crowd density monitoring system is crucial for mass events safety
management.
Crowd monitoring can be done in various ways. The use of Closed Circuit TV (CCTV) is appealing since
cameras are most often already installed through cities. Unfortunately, this solution has several
drawbacks. It does not work properly under low lightning conditions, which is often the case during
evening events. It is subject to occlusions, and is difficult to install to obtain a full coverage without “holes”.
Despite these limitations, CCTV systems are used today to monitor events. They fully rely on the
experience of professionals observing the videos to detect abnormal situations. An experiments in London
in 2011 showed that a complementary automatic monitoring system is demanded by event organizers
[Wirz2012] to increase efficiency. Automatic video analysis could of course be developed, but it is
restricted today to global crowd analysis in real-time operation. Individual people tracking is required for
flux estimation, which can only be done off-line with present technology, as in [Rodriguez2011]. Moreover,
when the crowd density is high, video analysis has more difficulties to discriminate individuals and to
reconstruct movements through multiple cameras, for all weather conditions [Versichele2012]. Finally,
extended use of video for tracking poses serious problems regarding privacy.
To circumvent these drawbacks, monitoring systems based on smartphones signals have been proposed.
They rely either on signals emitted by smartphones towards cellular base stations, or on signals emitted
by complementary embedded technologies like Bluetooth or Wifi. Cellular operators are currently
localizing their users. Localization was usually done using Call Data Records, but many operators now
have access to near real time network signaling data which captures all connections made from the device
to the network – over all technologies (2G,3G and 4G). The great advantage of this technology is coming
from the installed network of base stations that covers all geographical areas without holes. Its limitation
is due to the sparse emissions by smartphones (only at each transaction with the network) and to the
important localization uncertainty, typically around 300m in cities [Wirz2013].
The use of Bluetooth or Wifi signals is also widespread. The idea is to detect signals that are sent by
these technologies when trying to discover or to connect to access points intentionally placed in the
analysis area. The advantages are clear: localization uncertainty only depends on the access points
density, and people velocity estimations are possible. The main drawback is coming from the
infrastructure of access points that has to be installed, so limiting the analysis to a limited area.
Many companies offer such localization systems (the best example in Belgium being Amoobi, a spin-off
of the partner Wireless Communications Group, that relies on the Bluetooth and Wifi signals transmitted
by smartphones). But the intent is always totally different: crowd monitoring is currently closely linked to
market intelligence: people behavior is analyzed off-line in order to deduce useful information for retailers
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or event organizers, a posteriori. Event organizers can deduce the typical profile of their visitors, so as to
efficiently organize the event area.
In the context of large public events, Bluetooth localization was used in Gent in 2011 to monitor crowds
during Gent festivities [Verschile2012], and Wifi localization during a rock festival in Assen, The
Netherlands, in 2015 [VanSteen2016]. The use of dedicated Apps running on visitor smartphones was
also explored, in London in 2011 [Wirz2013] but it is too intrusive to be generalized to any event. All those
attempts look successful, but they were not able to monitor and anticipate crowd behavior in a safety
context, which is the core of the MUFINS project.
In fact, these two smartphone localization approaches (cellular and Bluetooth/Wifi) have their own
limitations that make them complementary: cellular crowd monitoring involves large amount of data that
needs to be processed in the shortest delay possible (current reporting solutions are batch oriented) and
provides crude localization accuracy, while Wifi crowd monitoring cannot be installed at large scale (the
whole Brussels Region for instance) and it needs robust cellular communication links to transmit in real-
time their measurements.
The idea behind the MUFINS project is to use the best of both worlds by combining information at the two
different scales, with two different accuracies (multi-fidelity system). Going back to the Brussels example,
knowing crowd density at large-scale on the main avenues of the pentagon area, combined with local
crowd densities at strategic convergence points should allow one to anticipate overcrowding very
efficiently, giving time to the organizer to react (for instance by redirecting people to less crowded streets).
Crowd dynamics forecasting based on smartphones signals, is, however, in its infancy. Citywide crowd
densities are analyzed in [Zhang2017] based on GPS tracks and neural networks algorithms. But the
required machinery is quite impressive, and it is only applied to Taxi or Bikes data (although application
to crowds is possible). Fan et al. [Fan2015] analyze crowd movements based on individual track history
of thousands of people, which also requires a huge computational cost, and which is not adapted to
transients, as claimed by the authors themselves. The most promising and pragmatic approach seems to
be the one very shortly depicted in [ClaesBouuaert2013] where Auto-Regressive (AR) algorithms are
used on Bluetooth detection data. ARs seem well suited to spatio-temporal forecasting over a 2-hours
period.
Crowd forecasting can also be related to the more explored field of traffic forecasting. Traffic forecasting
consists in predicting the evolution of several quantities related to automotive traffic – such as volume,
speed, and travel time – at different locations. Most of the traffic forecasting methods that have been
developed in the last decade rely on either time series forecasting (using, e.g., ARMA models) or neural
networks (NN, see [Vlahogianni2014, Tables 1-4] for a full review of the literature). The literature in traffic
forecasting mostly studies highway networks whereas urban environments are studied to a lesser extent
due to their complexity.
In the case of travel time prediction using neural networks, a highly cited paper is [VanLint2005]. The
authors of [VanLint2005] develop a discrete state space model (DSSM). Using the DSSM, they propose
a state space neural network (SSNN), whose goal is to provide an estimate of the travel time for a given
route.
Although travel time prediction is not the kind of quantity we are interested in within the framework of the
MUFINS project, the paper [VanLint2005] still provides relevant results. First of all, the paper shows that
a properly trained neural network can approximate the network dynamics sufficiently well to provide good
estimates of travel times. In that sense, we expect that such neural networks could also provide good
estimates of other quantities, such as volume or average speed.
The authors also assess the performance of several strategies dealing with faulty sensors. In particular,
they show that performing spatial interpolation or using moving average (MA) models is suitable for
replacing values that are either missing (due to sensor shutdown or disconnection) or unreliable. The
authors compare these two strategies (as well as a combination of them) with training the neural network
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with data sets for which some sensors have been deactivated. Such a training strategy requires a possibly
high number of neurons and also forces researchers to train the SSNN so as to deal with any combination
of faulty sensors (the number of such combinations increases sharply as more sensors are added to the
system). The spatial interpolation and MA approaches worked better, thereby providing a simple, effective
solution for handling missing or unreliable data points. Such strategies for approximating missing data
points could be used in MUFINS too -- even time series models are chosen instead of neural nets.
In [Min2011], the authors built a multivariate spatio-temporal autoregressive moving average (MSTARMA)
time series model. The model accounts for spatio-temporal correlations in that the evolution of the system
at a given time instant and location depends on the past states of the system at other locations. Their
solution also defines several templates – which typically describe different time periods and the
corresponding dynamics (e.g., peak and off-peak times for a highway). For each template, several model
parameters are identified; these parameters are different for each template since the associated dynamics
are different as well. Finally, they propose to evaluate, on the basis of measurements, which locations are
reachable from a given point within a certain time. This technique allows researchers to automatically
cancel some connections in the MSTARMA model and consequently reduce the number of parameters
to be identified. The results in [Min2011, Section 3] show that the proposed model is capable of accurately
predicting speed and volume for forecasting horizons ranging from 5 minutes to 60 minutes. It is worth
noticing that claims in [Min2011] have also been made in other works, such as [Pavlyuk2017].
As a conclusion, no crowd monitoring system dedicated to safety exists. To build such a system, two
artificial intelligence strategies look promising: AR and NN algorithms. Since AR algorithms have already
been applied with success in a similar case [ClaesBouuaert2013], and since they are easier to interpret,
the MUFINS project will start by considering this approach, complemented with the spatio-temporal
correlations and templates proposed in [Min2011].
D.1.2 Technological positioning

Technical steps
Pre-existent system
A first trial of both Wifi and cellular monitoring systems was deployed during the Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret
2016 festivities at the demands of Brussels Major Events (BME). These two systems were installed and
managed independently by the two partners, ULB and Proximus.
The system deployed by ULB consisted in three Wifi access points placed in the Paul Devaux street in
front of the stock market (see Figure 1). The access points were developed in the ULB lab, based on a
Raspberry Pi platform, and equipped with directional panel antennas. The data collected by the access
points were filtered, cleaned, and sent via ethernet cable to a central server. Crowd densities were
deduced off-line.
Proximus deployed network probes in the 2G,3G & 4G network which capture signaling messages
exchanged between the mobile devices of its customers and the network. Each time a signaling message
is exchanged, an event is generated. These events were captured in real-time, and sent into a big data
system for off-line analysis, after anonymization. These events are discrete in space (the location is
identified by the antenna to which the devices connect) and in time (only when the device is
communicating with the network)
Both systems gave compatible results, although on different temporal and spatial scales, but exhibited
each their own limits. In the MUFINS project, we argue that a full crowd monitoring system can be built
by (i) extending the technologies used in the pre-existent system to monitor a large area comprising the
event and its surroundings; and (ii) combining the monitoring system with machine learning strategies.
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Figure 1: ULB prototype deployed during Plaisirs d’hiver/Winterpret 2016
Specification step
A specification step will be carried out in close collaboration with BME who owns the expertize in mass
event organization.
From D.1.1, clearly, the MUFINS system must be able:
1. To provide crowd density, and directional fluxes maps in real-time.
2. To predict overcrowding situations on the short-term.
3. To predict overcrowding situations on the mid-term.
4. To propose mitigation actions in case of incident, including panics, stampede and turbulence.
Detailed specifications will be defined with the support of BME. Constraints of event organizers will be
identified. The performance of the MUFINS system will be deduced in terms of maximal time lags,
forecasting horizon, spatial resolution, hardware compliance, installation costs…
Pre-existent Wifi system extension

The pre-existent Wifi system will be extended to be able to include a whole event area and its
surroundings, while implementing the specifications.
Wifi sensors must be designed to use wireless connections in a robust way. Although off-the-shelf access
points seem suitable for crowd monitoring, real-time constraints imply a fully controlled development
environment, so that lab-designed devices are meaningful. Special care will be given to the best
combination of technologies since robustness was found to be sensitive to the choice of the
manufacturers of the electronic parts. The choice of the antennas is also crucial since a trade-off must be
found between coverage and inter-access points interferences.
In-node data processing will also be specifically addressed. When collecting MAC addresses from the
crowd, data must be heavily cleaned, compressed, and anonymized before being sent over-the-air by a
cellular protocol. The experience of Proximus concerning cellular capabilities will be here of outermost
importance in order to design a system of several tens of access points able to communicate wirelessly
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by using the existent cellular infrastructure.
The best Wifi sensor technology will be identified from this analysis. Practically, Wifi detection will be
carried out by installing an infrastructure of those access points throughout the event area. Two to three
access points will be deployed in each street making it possible to estimate crowd densities and fluxes at
a local scale. The Wifi infrastructure will provide density estimates in real-time. However not everybody
holds a smartphone with an active Wifi transmitter. System calibration will be done by comparing these
estimates with videos in chosen ideal conditions during a real event organized by BME. The extrapolation
factor from Wifi detection to real-world people density will be deduced.
Wifi-based crowd monitoring systems typically rely on the beacon signals emitted by smartphones whose
Wifi is enabled. The time delay separating two consecutive beacon signals depends on the phone
manufacturer and typically ranges in between 40 to 60 seconds. As a result, it is possible to detect a user
within (at most) 60 seconds. The targeted refresh rate will so be 1 minute.
Pre-existent Cellular system extension

Cellular detection will be carried out by the 2G-3G-4G base stations deployed in the event area, but also
in the neighborhood, making it possible to estimate densities at a larger scale for the mid-term prediction
objective. The smallest granularity for crowd density estimation is at cell level, as shown by the polygons
in Figure 2 for the Brussels area.
For each density report, an optimal sampling in time and space needs to be studied in MUFINS. It is
constrained by:
◦ The granularity of the base stations (see Figure 2)
◦ The time rate at which a device connects to the network
The time at which a device connects is dependent on a lot of factors, including the usage of the device.
Fortunately, there are periodic events (so called periodic location updates) that devices are obliged to
execute. For devices without data, each device is obliged to contact the network every 3 hours. A data
enabled device will do that approximately every 1 hour. In between, connections between the device and
the network are driven by usage.
As soon as the device connects to the network, the probes at the cellular base stations generate an event.
However, not all devices are constantly doing this, and the last known position is only known from the last
contact with the network. Current observations using the current mix of devices and usage show the
following:
◦ 70% of devices have a known location that is less than 46 min old
The crowd monitoring will therefore be based on the last known positions for each device. The targeted
refresh rate will depend on the performance of the system that holds the last location of each device. It
should be less than 5 minutes.
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Figure 2: Proximus cells in Brussels pentagon
Forecasting
Obviously, the cellular monitoring system will give too coarse spatio-temporal estimates in order to
develop forecasting methods by itself only, while the Wifi sensors cannot be installed at a city scale. One
important outcome of the MUFINS project will be to define how both systems can work in synergy.
According to the specifications defined at the outset, the key point is to find the optimal trade-off between
utilization of the cellular and Wifi systems, i.e. to define the geographical extension in and around the
event area, and the spatio-temporal capabilities of each monitoring system in order to make efficient
forecasting possible. It will also be required to study how far in the past the Wifi and cellular data will have
to be stored and included in the machine learning algorithms, while being compliant with privacy issues.
Machine learning strategies will be developed in successive steps, first with short-term spatio-temporal
predictions, and, then, progressively enlarging the spatio-temporal horizon.
Short-term predictions are required to alert as soon as possible the event organizer of a possible
hazardous situation due to sudden changes. Critical thresholds will be defined on the basis of the literature
and on the experience of the event organizer BME. Auto-Regressive (AR) models will be considered on
density estimations, at street level and at cellular level. In a first step, these models will be totally local
(street or cell level) and the maximal achievable time horizon will be defined, targeting a few minutes (10-
15 minutes typ., according to specifications).
Mid-term prediction will then be addressed. In this case, spatial dynamics must also be taken into account.
Local AR models will be extended to Vectorial AR models to include the spatial dimensions through
correlation matrices between different measurement places, as done in [Min2011] for road traffic
monitoring. Those matrices will also take into account the connectivity between measurement points:
street or cell topologies restrict the possible links between crowd estimations at different places. Time
horizon will be determined, targeting up to 1 hour (according to specifications).
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Two scenarios will be considered. First the mid-term prediction of crowd arrival into the event area. Crowd
dynamics around the event area will be analyzed to predict crowd density at the event gates due to
massive people densities approaching from different directions. Second, mid-term predictions will be
considered inside the event area, at street level, by using the predicted arrival rate as input flows. It is
worth mentioning that cellular measurements will also be done at locations inside the event perimeter and
they will be fused with the local predictions and the input flows prediction. It is expected that the models
will rely on the measured densities, but also on the estimated directional fluxes.
This spatio-temporal prediction algorithm will need some learning step to refine the correlation matrices.
It was found in [Min2011] that, for traffic, these matrices depend on the context: peak and off-peak hours.
We suppose that context will also play a role for crowds: day or night hours, week or week-end days for
instance, but also weather conditions. Context identification will be part of the study.
Mitigation
When overcrowding is predicted by short- or mid-term methods, the system will be able to give synthetic
information to the event organizer: overcrowded streets will be identified and communicated, together
with streets identified as being low-density. People can so be redirected by opening/closing streets, or
directing people to safe areas. This capability is also important in case of panic or stampede which cannot
be avoided, but which can be mitigated by quickly knowing the exact perimeter of the incident.
Data processing and visualization

The density data will be collected at a central server. In order to give full insight to the customer, the data
will be processed before visualization. Crowd densities will be deduced from the rough data. From the
anonymized individual detections, people fluxes will be deduced. Due to the spatio-temporal sampling,
these fluxes will have quantification uncertainties that will be estimated. At the local scale, fluxes will be
computed at the street level, while at the cellular scale, inter-cells fluxes will be provided.
The information will be made available through an API via the Proximus EnCo platform. This will allow
one to visualize the information through a heatmap. The project will deliver a simple visualization of the
data coming from this API.
Privacy
During all technical steps, special care will be given to privacy issues.
Privacy is of paramount importance for Proximus, and Proximus will adhere to all privacy related laws and
advice from the privacy commission. For MUFINS, there will be a need to perform a PIA (Privacy Impact
Assessment), which may include asking advice from privacy commission, and/or extra investigations by
privacy experts. This can impact the project implementation. Current assumption is that Proximus will not
report on groups that are smaller than 30 persons, prior to extrapolation. This threshold may be reviewed
during the project.
For the Wifi system, ULB will also adhere to all laws and advice from the privacy commission. It is worth
mentioning that Amoobi (spin-off of the partner ULB active in customer tracking) manage privacy by
adhering to the code of conduct of the Privacy Special Interest Group (http://www.privacysig.org). The
same code of conduct will be adapted to the MUFINS project context, and be applied by ULB.
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Technical risks
Evolution of the Wifi standard: wireless standards tend to be more and more privacy-aware and
randomization of the MAC address could evolve in future versions of Wifi (the same reason why we avoid
using Bluetooth). This risk is taken into account in multiple ways. First, all densities and fluxes measured
at cell level is not impacted by this risk. At street level, densities can be measured even with
randomization. Only directional fluxes at street level is impacted. Mitigation strategies could be applied
by analyzing other parameters than the MAC address, as the time sequence number or the packet
sending rate embedded in the Wifi frames. Also, global fluxes at street level could still be estimated with
randomization by using density balances, as in fluid mechanics.
Cellular network capacity: all measurements at street level (cleaned and compressed) must be sent over-
the-air by cellular communications. There is a risk to saturate the network. Here, the expertize of Proximus
will clearly mitigate this risk. Also, the possibility of developing in the lab the sensors will make it possible
to define what is computed at sensor level, so decreasing the communication load. Finally, the global
trend of cellular networks is a rapid increase in capacity, and the advent of 5G in 2020 will still accelerate
this.
Too short time horizons obtained with AR algorithms: if the time horizons we obtain are too short for a
given accuracy and computational burden, the forecasting could not be efficient. Since AR forecasting for
traffic and crowds have already been developed in the literature with a time horizon above 2 hours, we
think that the risk due to adding a multi-fidelity approach is low. Nevertheless, if AR performance are not
satisfactory, other machine learning methods (as neural networks) will be considered.
Privacy: Location data is considered to be personal data, so it needs to be protected and anonymized
adequately. This has to be done at all stages of the project, and on all points where data is stored, or
flows through any system. Also the overall result of the project (= the data that is sent to potential
customers) needs to be privacy tested. Especially in the context of crowd prediction (e.g. predict the next
position based upon a previous number of locations in order to predict crowds), it might be necessary to
consider “paths” of movements. Keeping track of not only the last known position, but the last movement
instead might be subject to different privacy protection requirements. A Privacy Impact Assessment will
be necessary – which can potentially limit the deliverables of the project.
Technological challenges
The technological challenges for ULB include:
• Robustness for sniffing Wifi beacon signals: ensure our solution for sniffing the Wifi beacon
signals is stable (e.g., no memory leaks) is of paramount importance as these beacon signals
provide fundamental quantities for forecasting. In particular, our solution should possess buffering
features to deal with temporary disconnections. Hardware should also be robust.
• De-anonymization: if necessary, implement de-anonymization techniques for dealing with the new
MAC address anonymization strategies implemented in modern smartphones. Such new
strategies are expected to generate new random MAC addresses regularly, thereby making de-
anonymization beneficial.
• Privacy and IT security: we should ensure that our solution complies with privacy laws and
associated best practices. IT security should also be taken into account. In particular, the data
transmitted from each Wifi probe to the central server should be encrypted.
• Real-time forecasting tool: the forecasting tool should work in real time and it should be able to
deal with missing and/or corrupted measurements. Determining the best ARMA-like model and
the best identification method for the model parameter is critical and may take some time. Also,
simultaneously processing two data streams (one stemming from the Wifi network and the other
one originating from the cellular network) may prove to be difficult; those streams exhibit different
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features (e.g., unequal delays for data to become available), which should be taken into account
when designing our forecasting tool.
• Forecasting horizon: the forecasting tool should be capable to provide a forecasting horizon up
to one hour. To attain such a performance, we need to fully leverage the two data streams that
are available, which is not straightforward and entails significant research efforts.
The technological challenges for Proximus are related to

• Performance of the real time storage: The location information from the cellular network is
captured by probes in the signaling network. Each time a device connects to the network, and a
signaling message is exchanged over the network – an event is being generated. On the current
network, this is happening on a rate of approximately 20000 / second. The real time storage has
to be able to sustain that influx rate.
• Taking into account the discreteness in time and location: As devices are not constantly
connecting with the network, the location is only known with a certain time delay. Only for the
devices that have connected to the network during the last second have an up to date location.
For others, the last event might be to up to 3 hours ago. This means that a snapshot of the current
last known locations will contain a mix of recent and less recent events. However, the last known
timestamp is stored in the real time store – so that it becomes possible to filter a subset, and
correct it via extrapolation. Investigation is necessary to find a good balance between the selected
timeframe & the correctness of the information. Furthermore, the location is only known to the
cell level. In order to have a continuous image (heatmap) some interpolation will have to be done.
As there are multiple ways to do this, investigation is necessary on the best possible way to
accomplish this.
• Performance of the real time storage: how fast can snapshot be taken. The project intends to
have an updated image of current people density every 5 minutes. This requires several steps:
query the database with the last known locations, apply privacy algorithms, apply the
geographical interpolation. These steps have to be done within a reasonable time.
• Regular changes in network infrastructure makes this difficult. The cellular network is a “living
infrastructure”. That means that daily changes on the network are possible, and the reference file
containing the locations of the antennas is changing frequently. In this project, we need to find a
way to make the result independent of the network infrastructure. That also means that reference
data has to be maintained.
• How to make the API network infrastructure independent: The above comment will result in a
network infrastructure independent heatmap. This needs to be reflected in the APIs. On top of
this, information coming from several networks will have to be combined (Wifi and cellular). It will
be the main challenge of this project to assure we can find a good way of combining the
information.
• Privacy preserving algorithms: Privacy is of paramount importance for a commercial company
such as Proximus. That means that appropriate measures need to be taken in order to protect
the privacy of our customers. This starts with the anonymization of the information. Furthermore,
the output of the API should not allow for an end user to learn something on the location of any
individual. Therefore, several algorithms might have to be applied in order to prevent this from
happening. The experience Proximus has on this subject is that this can pose a threat to this
project, and sufficient effort needs to be foreseen to secure this information.
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D.1.3 Implementation of the project
Methodology
Each partner will be leader of the development of one measurement system: local system for ULB, and
cellular system for Proximus. The data processing and machine learning parts will be led by ULB, but in
very close collaboration with Proximus. The complementarity of the partners is clearly identified with
Proximus huge expertize in cellular networks and big data management, and ULB for wireless
technologies and applied statistics.
For the whole system to work efficiently, a tight synergy between both partners is required, with regular
meetings to define strategic and short terms objectives, and workshops to actually co-develop the
systems.  A set of co-creation methods will be applied to support the common drive for result. In a first
phase a design thinking process will be followed to identify the real jobs to be done, to build first
assumptions and to test them. Next the lean startup methodology will be used to support first solution
developments. Later, agile methods will be applied to guarantee fast iterative IT development.
Beside this collaboration, the inputs of Brussels Major Events (BME) will be of outermost importance
during the whole project, since BME owns the expertise in mass event organization. Monthly meetings
will be organized between the three parties in order to maintain the project on the right tracks.
The key point for MUFINS will be the test, validation and improvements of the system in real-world
scenarios, i.e. during public mass events. BME will provide access to the events it organizes in Brussels
throughout the year.
MUFINS developments will be based on an iterative approach where successive versions are
implemented (at least) twice a year at two key events: Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret and Brussels Summer
Festival (BSF). These two events were chosen for their respective representativeness: Plaisirs
d’Hiver/Winterpret is a walking event where crowds are moving across different streets, while BSF has
several concert places to monitor, where people converge from outside the event area.
During the MUFINS project, a minimum of four events will so be used as operational environments, with
the final prototype at Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret 2019.
Data access
One of the first deliverable of the project will be to define where the data will be stored, and how and
where the data flows will be combined, taking into account scalability and security. Data access by
customers (e.g. BME) will be protected through security features on the Enco.io platform (authentication
& security features), which are today used for REST API services.
Subcontractors
Brussels Major Events (BME) will be subcontractor of the project by managing the installation/de-
installation of the Wifi sensors during the test-events. Subcontracting costs include the technical
manpower and renting of the elevator required to place the sensors at an optimal positioning.
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D.1.4 Summary of each partner’s contribution/tasks within the project
ULB/Wireless Communications Group
• Define, with Proximus, the system general architecture and specifications

• Design the Wifi sensors that will be deployed during the events
• Develop the in-node processing capability of the sensors
• Develop, with Proximus, the data processing required for real-time crowd monitoring
• Develop the machine learning strategies for crowd density forecasting
• Implement, test, and validate with Proximus the system as a whole, and each of its parts
concerning the Wifi sensors, during real-world events.
• Disseminate scientific results through publications and talks.
Proximus
• Define, with ULB, the system general architecture and specifications

• Implement the low resolution (cellular based) crowd management solution
• Support the integration of the high resolution Wifi based system as developed by ULB
• Develop, with ULB, the data processing required for real-time crowd monitoring
• Provide a solution for the data storage
• Assure an adequate solution for the data transfer of the Wifi scanners
• Design and implement APIs to be offered to the customers
• Implement, test, and validate with ULB the system as a whole, and asses the added value of
Wifi sensors
• Monetize the solution
References
th
[Chilipirea2016] C. Chilipirea et al., “Presumably simple: monitoring crowds using WiFi”, Proc. 17 IEEE
Conf. Mobile Data Management, 13-16 June 2016, Porto, Portugal
[ClaeysBouuaert2013] M. Claeys Bouuaert, “Modeling crowds at mass-events: learning large-scale crowd
dynamics from Bluetooth tracking data”, Proc. Mobile Ghent, 23 Oct. 2013
[Fan2015] Z. Fan et al., “CityMomentum: an online approach for crowd behaviour prediction at citywide
level”, Proc. UBICOMP, 7-11 June 2015, Osaka, Japan
[Helbing2012] D. Helbing, P. Mukerji, “Crowd disasters as systemic failures: analysis of the Love Parade
disaster”, EPJ Data Science, 1(7), 2012
[Helbing2015] D. Helbing et al., “Saving human lives: what complexity science and information systems
can contribute”, J. Stat. Phys., 158, pp.735-781, 2015
[Johansson2008] A. Johansson, D. Helbing, “From crowd dynamics to crowd safety: a video-based
analysis”, Advs. Complex Syst., 11, 2008
[Min2011] W. Min, L. Wynter, “Real-time road traffic prediction with spatio-temporal correlations”, Transp.
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Res. C, pp.606-616, 2011
[Pavlyuk2017] Pavlyuk, D., 2017, “Short-term Traffic Forecasting Using Multivariate Autoregressive
Models. Procedia Engineering”, 178, pp.57-66, 2017.
[Rodriguez2011] M. Rodriguez et al., “Density-aware person detection and tracking in crowds”, Proc. IEEE
Int. Conf. Computer Vision, 6-13 Nov. 2011, Barcelona, Spain
[Schadschneider2008] A. Schadschneider et al.,” Evacuation dynamics:empirical results, modelling, and
applications”, in Encyclopedia of complexity and system science, B.Meyers (Ed.), Springer, Berlin, 2008
[VanLint2005] Van Lint, J. W. C., S. P. Hoogendoorn, and Henk J. van Zuylen. "Accurate freeway travel
time prediction with state-space neural networks under missing data." Transportation Research Part C:
Emerging Technologies 13, 5, pp.347-369, 2005.
[Versichele2012] M. Versichele et al., “The use of Bluetooth for analysing spatiotemporal dynamics of
human movement at mass events: a case study of the Ghent festivities”, Applied Geography, 32(2),
pp.208-220, 2012
[Vlahogianni2014] Vlahogianni, E.I., Karlaftis, M.G. and Golias, J.C., “Short-term traffic forecasting:
Where we are and where we’re going”, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 43,
pp.3-19, 2014.
[Min2011] Min, W., and Laura W., "Real-time road traffic prediction with spatio-temporal
correlations." Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 19, 4, pp.606-616, 2011.
[Wirz2012] M. Wirz et al., “Inferring crowd conditions from pedestrians’ location traces for real-time crowd
monitoring during city-scale mass gatherings”, Proc. IEEE Int. WETICE, pp.367-372, 2012
[Wirz2013] M. Wirz et al., “Probing crowd density through smartphones in city-scale mass gatherings”,
EPJ Data Science, 2(5), 2013
[Zhang2017] J. Zhang et al., ”Deep spatio-temporal residual networks for citywide crowd flows prediction”,
Proc. 31th AAAI Conf. Artificial Intelligence, 4-9 Feb. 2017, San Francisco, USA
D.2. Place(s) where the project will be carried out
The project will be carried out at the partner offices in Brussels, ULB and Proximus. The prototypes will
be installed during Brussels’ events with the support of Brussel Major Events. The objective is of course
to develop a generic system that can be used outside the Brussels area.
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D.3. Detailed work programme
WP 1: System Architecture, Prototyping and Validation
9 man-months for ULB D (project start)

9 man-months for Proximus
Overall objectives of the WP:

MUFINS developments will be based on an iterative approach where successive versions are
implemented (at least) twice a year at two key events: Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret and Brussels Summer
Festival (BSF). A development cycle of 6 months is so foreseen during the whole project, with the final
prototype in operational environment at Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret 2019. This WP is intended to the
management of the development cycles, at system level.
Task 1.1: System specifications

1 man-month for ULB D – D+1M
1 man-month for Proximus
Objectives of task 1.1:

Define all system specifications required to reach a final prototype in operational environment. Constraints
of event organizers will be identified. Specifications of the MUFINS system will be deduced in terms of
maximal time lags, forecasting horizon, spatial resolution, hardware compliance, installation costs.
Definition of the global architecture.
Description of the method:

Workshop(s) with ULB, Proximus and Brussels Major Events.
Technical challenges associated with task 1.1: N.A.
Risks associated with task 1.1: N.A.
Deliverables (ULB/Proximus cooperation): Specification document
Task 1.2: Development cycle management

4 man-months for ULB D+1M-D+22M
For every 6-months iteration, the development will be organized as follows:
• Draw the system overall architecture, up to the step where the data is made available through
an API
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• Define the assets for both project partners
• Develop a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) to validate the architecture
Description of the methods & tasks:

• Workshop to clearly agree on the scope and the requirements
• Workshop to select most important requirements in order to come to an MVP
• Common workshop in order to draw an initial architecture for a MVP
• Prototype the MVP with available building blocks and simulators
• Create a sample dataset with all needed data
• Make a manual analysis of the data
Technical challenges:
• How to create the missing building blocks and distribute responsibilities.
Risks:
• Major risk is in the privacy requirements. Legal requirements might put requirements that
severely limit the possibilities of what may and what may not be done
• Availability of Wifi sensors with sufficient capabilities
Deliverables (ULB/Proximus cooperation):

• A high level functional architecture: Di+1M (Di=iteration start)
• Identification of the different assets to be used from all parties: Di + 1M
• MVP to produce a sample dataset: Di + 4M
• Lessons learned, opportunities defined, needed developments identified: Di + 4M
Task 1.3: System field implementation


Twice a year, during the selected events, the whole system prototype will be deployed, tested and
validated. The calibration procedure should also be done at the same time: extrapolation factor
identification for Wifi and cellular sensing.

• Implementation of the API and of a simple visualization tool to test the system as a whole during
the event.
• Installation and de-installation of the hardware infrastructure with the help of BME as sub-
contractor (technical support).
• Calibration and validation of the crowd density monitoring system by comparison with visual data
provided either by BME, or by dedicated cameras.
• Performance analysis of the forecasting system by using the collected data.
Technical challenges associated with task 1.3:

• Optimization of the data collection in order to reach real-time constraints and reasonable data
storage
• Compatibility with cellular network capacity for local scale data transmission
Risks associated with task 1.3:
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• Validation: if validation by visual inspection is impossible during the event, other validation
scenarios in controlled environments should be used.
Deliverables (ULB/Proximus cooperation):

• Improved prototypes at system level: Di+6M
• Performance analysis: Di+6M
WP 2: Wifi high resolution crowd monitoring
6 man-months for ULB D+1M

Overall objective(s) of the WP:
This WP aims to provide a reliable, cost-effective Wifi-based crowd counting system based on sensors
located at key locations within and/or around the event to be monitored. These sensors do not broadcast
any Wifi network but rather monitor the beacon signals sent by smartphones. Such beacon signals are
regularly emitted by all smartphones on which Wifi is turned on. An active connection to a nearby Wifi
network is not necessary for these signals to be emitted. The beacons include a Media Access Control
(MAC) address, which can be used to track each user.
The main objective of this WP consists in developing the software—running on each sensor developed in
WP5 —that gathers, processes, and sends relevant information to an external database. The software
solution should include buffering features as temporary disconnections are possible. The data will be sent
securely to a central server using a 4G mobile internet connection.
Task 2.1: Develop a software solution for acquiring raw beacon signals
2 man-months for ULB D+1M – D+10M

Develop a stable software solution to gather the raw beacon signals emitted by smartphones whose Wifi
features are enabled.

• In-node software development for raw beacon signals collection
• Unit tests development for each part of the software: to confirm that the software solution is
reliable and delivers the expected results.

• A stable solution for collecting the raw beacon signals must be developed. This part should not
suffer from any memory leak or any other deficiency as such impairments would eventually make
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the program crashes. Python is a suitable choice for developing the software solution running on
each Wifi sensor. Python provides a variety of libraries, is easy to learn, and allows one to deliver
an easily maintainable code base (provided that the code base is not excessively large).
Additionally, the garbage collector of Python prevents memory leaks from occurring. Finally, when
developing a Wifi-based counting system for Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret 2016, it was noticed that
there were no performance issues associated with using Python for this kind of application.

• The whole project success strongly depends on the stability of the software running on the local
Wifi sensors. In particular, its stability must be flawless for the project to be successful.
Task 2.2: Software solution for processing raw beacon signals

2 man-months for ULB D – D+11M

Develop a stable software solution for processing the raw beacon signals acquired as described in Task
2.1.

• In-node software development for
- Delete the multiple copies of a beacon signals. A burst of beacon signals is emitted by each
smartphone; there is no need to keep (and then transmit) more than one copy.
- Discard “fake” MAC addresses. More and more manufacturers perform MAC address
randomization. This randomization consists in randomly generating MAC addresses for
beacon signals – which aims to prevent third parties from tracking users. However, those
randomly generated addresses usually suffer from some impairments allowing us to track
smartphones (see “On Wi-Fi Tracking and the Pitfalls of MAC Address Randomization”, by
Cunche M. and Matte C., Journée Nationale de l'Internet des Objets, 29/11/2016 for more
details).
- Hash the 3 least significant bytes of the MAC address to completely anonymize MAC
addresses. These bytes correspond to the Network Interface Controller (NIC), which identifies
a particular phone from a given phone manufacturer. The remaining 3 bytes, which
corresponds to the Organisationally Unique Identifier (OUI), are left unaltered as they only
identify a phone manufacturer.

• Performing MAC address de-anonymization may become more and more difficult as phone
manufacturers implement increasingly complex anonymization techniques.

• As MAC address randomization gets more and more complex and efficient, it is possible that
tracking individual users will simply become impossible in the future—even in a completely
anonymous way. If such an evolution occurs, our system would still be able to count the
smartphones located in their vicinity but computing flows (and using them in WP4) would become
impossible.
Tasks 2.3: Software solution for securely sending data to a central database
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2 man-months for ULB D+2M – D+11M

Develop a stable, secure software solution which sends to an external database the relevant information
for forecasting purposes (see WP 4).

• In-node software development for
- Develop buffering capabilities in case 4G connectivity is temporarily lost.
- Implement a secure, encrypted connection for sending data to the central database.

• The buffering procedure must be robust.
• From the privacy point of view, the connection to the central server must be secure as the
information that is sent contains somewhat critical data.
Risks associated with task 2.3: N/A
Deliverables from WP 2 (ULB)

The software running on each Wifi sensor should be fully developed (Di+4M). As ULB has already built
such software in the past, we could reuse some of our pieces of code.
WP 3: Low resolution Cellular Crowd Monitoring

Develop an API that supports an application to get the real-time crowd estimates from the cellular network,
in a way that is independent of the cell structure.
5 man-months for Proximus D+1M-D+11M
Task 3.1 Make mobile location stream available
1 man-month for Proximus D+1M – D+10M

Gather real time location information from cellular network

Already today, probes are capturing signalling information from the Proximus network (2G, 3G & 4G). This
information will have to be stored in a dedicated real time location store.
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• There is a need for filtering (e.g. Machine2machine applications). Moreover, there is a need for
strict anonymization of the information. Also, the location of the customers is stored at cell level,
and a link needs to be made with reference information in order to perform the translation into
geographic coordinates.
• The translation from “cells” to “locations” is tricky, as the cellular network is evolving each day.

• Performance is key – as the influx is expected to be 20.000 messages per second.
• Legal requirements might severely limit the possibilities of what may and what may not be done
in terms of history, storage, etc …
Deliverables (Proximus):
Real time location store: Di+3M
Task 3.2 Extraction of real-time crowd data
4 man-months for Proximus D+1M – D+11M

Make real time crowd data on cellular data available through an application interface that allows a user
such as BME to get the necessary data.

Query the real time location store, and make this information available through an API

• Privacy preserving algorithms need to be implemented, and the threshold needs to be defined for
aggregation so that no singling out is possible. Some limited history needs to be kept.
• Furthermore, the information needs to be as independent as possible from the structure of the
cellular network.

• Performance is key – as updates of the output are to be expected with high performance (e.g.
one update every minute)
Deliverables (Proximus):
API available according to the requirements of the project: Di + 4M
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WP 4: Crowd Analysis and Management
14 man-months for ULB D-D+24M

1.7 man-months for Proximus

This WP aims to provide mathematical models to perform short-term and mid-term forecasts regarding
the density and fluxes of people at different locations. As explained in part D.1.1, ARMA-like time series
will be our preferred forecasting method candidate. This WP ought to fulfil several objectives:
• Perform basic data processing to obtain crowd densities and fluxes.
• Determine the best type of ARMA-like time series for forecasting purposes.
• Choose (and possibly adapt) a method for identifying the parameters of the model. Ideally, the
identification method should not require advanced skills in statistics in order to be used.
• Extend the model and the identification method so as to simultaneously leverage data originating
from the Wi-Fi system and from the cellular network.
• Design and test strategies for dealing with missing or corrupted measurements.
• Predict future hazardous situations and generate alerts whenever a threat is identified, together
with mitigation actions.
• Ensure that our product complies with the regulations and the best practices related to privacy
and security.
Task 4.1: Basic processing

1 man-month for ULB D-D+2M
0.1 man-month for Proximus

Task 4.1 aims to provide crowd densities and fluxes by processing the Wifi measurements and the data
stemming from the cellular network (see WP3 regarding how the data is acquired).

• The raw data obtained by means of WP2 and the cellular data obtained in WP3 will be used to
provide density maps and parameters for our time series (through parameter identification—see
task 4.2).
• Flux maps and time series will be computed for each Wifi probe area and for each cell of the
cellular network.

• Obtaining accurate flux maps from measurements that are sparsely distributed in the spatial
domain.
Risks associated with task 4.1: Privacy-related constraints could restrict flux analysis.
Task 4.2: Short-term forecasting tool
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Task 4.2 aims to assess and compare the prediction capabilities and reliabilities of different forecasting
tools based on ARMA-like time series; we shall train these forecasting tools and assess their performance
on the basis of the data obtained in Task 4.1. This first task will only focus on short-term forecasts. The
performance of each forecasting tool depends on the efficiency of the associated identification method;
as a result, identification methods and forecasting tools will be jointly evaluated. As is the case for every
task, we shall ensure that we comply with the regulations and best practices related to privacy and security.
We shall also test several strategies for dealing with possibly missing or corrupted measurements—which,
for example, stem from a disconnection of a Wifi probe or a temporary power outage.
In this task, we shall use the data stemming from Wifi probes and from the cellular network in an
independent manner. Even when looking at only one sub-system (Wifi or cellular network), we shall not
make use of spatio-temporal correlations to enhance forecasting abilities. As a result, this first task will
provide a simple forecasting tool whose forecasting horizon is limited (we expect that it ranges from ten
to fifteen minutes, typ.).

First of all, we shall assess several forecasting tools based on time series and the corresponding
identification methods. On the basis of real-world measurements, the forecasting tool that provides the
highest performance will be identified.

• Jointly evaluating each forecasting tool (as well as the associated identification methods) takes
time and should consequently be performed efficiently.
• The chosen forecasting tool should be robust and accurate—even when some measurements
are missing or corrupted.

• Privacy-related concerns could prevent some measurements from being used; such problematic
measurements would typically correspond to low streams of people, which theoretically allow us
to isolate a narrow group of individuals (or even a single person). This concern should not be a
problem during peak times at events because such time periods involve a large pool of individuals.
• Although literature suggests it is unlikely (see Section D.1.2), it could be difficult to build
forecasting tools based on ARMA-like time series exhibiting a sufficient accuracy for desired
forecasting horizons. This risk must be quickly estimated in order to explore other techniques like
neural networks, if necessary.
• If the topology of the streets changes, our forecasting tool should still be able to make accurate
forecasts. Topology modifications typically stem from actions of event organizers that aim to
prevent people from making some areas too crowded (see Task 4.4).
Task 4.3: Mid-term forecasting tool

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Task 4.3 aims to increase the forecasting horizon obtained in Task 4.2 by using both the data provided by
the cellular network and that stemming from the Wifi sensors.

• We shall research how to optimally extend the tools developed in Task 4.2 to increase the
forecasting horizon for mid-term forecasting. Spatio-temporal correlation will be leveraged in the
model of Task 4.2. The forecasting tools and the identification procedure of Task 4.2 will be
adapted. We shall determine whether it is preferable to process the two data streams (i.e., that
related to the Wifi system and that stemming from the cellular network) in the same way. The
other alternative consists in processing one data stream using a prescribed algorithm and then
exploit these preliminary results in conjunction with the other data stream (using another
algorithm).
• Context identification: is it necessary to define contexts (as time of the day, day of the week...) or
are the forecasting tools universal.
• We shall then investigate strategies dealing with missing and/or corrupted measurements. To
evaluate each strategy, we shall modify real-world measurements to simulate outages for some
Wifi probes.
• Finally, we shall determine whether it is possible to automatically detect that some Wi-Fi probes
do not provide interesting data—which could happen because some probes may generate
information that can be deduced on the basis of measurements originating from neighboring
probes.

• Simultaneously processing two different data streams in real time may prove to be difficult. In
particular, time lags are likely to be different for the Wifi system and that based on the cellular
network, thereby creating additional constraints regarding how our forecasting tools work.
• The other technical challenges are identical to those of Task 4.2.

• The tools and identification procedures of Task 4.2 might not be ideal when combining the two
data streams. However, such an event is unlikely as the cellular network measures a system
whose dynamics is similar to that of the system covered by the Wifi system. Moreover, we can
also process the two data streams differently and then combine the resulting information. As
suggested above, yet another possibility consists in first processing one data stream (e.g., the
cellular network stream) and then use the results in a forecasting method that also uses the
second data stream (e.g., that associated with the Wifi system).
• The other risks are identical to those of Task 4.2. The risk related to insufficiently short forecasting
horizons is particularly significant in this task as it should provide our final forecasts, whose
forecasting horizon is significantly longer than that of the tool developed in Task 4.2.
Task 4.4: Forecast of hazardous scenarios


On the basis of the forecasting solution developed in Task 4.3, we wish to develop an algorithm that
automatically detects future hazardous situations and yields alerts. The generated alerts enable event
organizers to apply counter-measures preventing such unsafe situations from occurring. The system will
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also automatically identify mitigation actions (as people re-routing) based on the forecasting.

• Using the results about crowd dynamics, which are detailed in Section D.1.1, we shall develop an
algorithm that automatically detects possibly hazardous configurations in the system, e.g., density
threshold overrunning. Using the expertise of BME, we shall gain a better understanding
regarding how sensitive the thresholds for generating alerts should be.
• Based on the forecasting results, low-density streets will be identified as possible safe areas.

• Efficient threshold overrunning detection.

• The forecasts provided by Task 4.3 should be sufficiently accurate to perform the detection of
hazardous situations.
Deliverable from WP 4 (ULB):
The deliverable is a real-time software able to forecast the densities and fluxes of people at key locations
(D+24M). An easy-to-use identification method fitting the parameters of the forecasting tool should ideally
be available. The software will also generate alerts whenever possibly hazardous situations are forecasted
and propose mitigation actions.
WP 5: Hardware developments

The objective of this WP is to develop the hardware to monitor Wifi beacon signals. Although Wifi sensors
are commercially available, the context of MUFINS makes the development of our own hardware
necessary. The real-time constraint implies a full control of the electronic platform, privacy requirements
imply access to the data at each processing step, and optimal deployment gives constraints on the receive
antennas.
The pre-existent system used for Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret 2016 will serve as starting point for MUFINS.
Upgraded versions will be tested and validated in two iterations, during two events organized by BME.
Task 5.1: Hardware specification

1 man-month for ULB D-D+3M
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Based on the pre-existent system developed for Plaisirs d’hiver/Winterpret 2016, on the specifications of
WP1, and the in-node processing that will be developed in WP2, definition of the hardware specifications
for the Wifi sensors.

Definition of the hardware constraints related to real-time applications and the amount of in-node
processing required for MUFINS developed in WP2. The hardware should have sufficient memory (for
buffering purposes) and should support Wifi in monitoring mode. It is indeed necessary to use a Wifi front-
end whose firmware allows us to monitor all the beacon signals being locally sent (all Wifi chipsets do not
possess this ability). Furthermore, the device should also not get damaged by rain or humidity, and
environmental constraints must be listed.
Task 5.2: Platform development


The hardware platform will be developed in compliance with specifications defined in Task 5.1.

• Choice of the development platform (e.g. Raspberry Pi)
• Identification of electronic components that should be assembled, especially concerning the Wifi
sensor and the cellular modem.
• Identification of the receive antenna by computing the coverage of the sensor according to the
antenna radiation pattern. The antenna choice must be very carefully done, since it imposes the
trade-off between coverage and inter-sensors interferences while avoiding to receive undesired
signals (for instance coming from houses, hotels…).
• Environmental constraints: humidity, rain, frost…
• Assembly and configuration of the sensors by means of a process which will be partially
automated

Ensuring stability of the whole sensor in real-world scenarios.

Since the whole project heavily depends on the quality of the Wifi crowd counting system, picking an
inadequate component supplier could jeopardize all remaining tasks.
Task 5.3: Sensor test and validation

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On-site test and validation of the sensors w.r.t. coverage and stability.

• Deployment of the sensors during a test-event with BME.
• Validation of coverage by manual testing
• Study of stability during event duration
• Lessons learned, needed developments identified (Di+6M)
Deliverable from WP 5 (ULB):

MUFINS Wifi sensors (D+12M)
WP 6: Dissemination
1 man-month for ULB D+12M-D+24M

Academic valorization through publications and talks.
Tasks 6.1: Academic valorization

1 man-month for ULB D+12M-D+24M
Objectives of task 6.1: Academic valorization

The results associated with the different research questions will be disseminated by means of publications.
Depending on the nature and the size of the contributions, flagship conferences or highly ranked journals
will be privileged. When relevant, publications will be co-authored by ULB-WCG and Proximus.
Magazines associated with different specialization levels could also host a contribution from our projects:
the G-Square magazine distributed to all Alumni of the Brussels School of Engineering, IEEE Spectrum
to all IEEE members, IEEE Communications Magazine to all IEEE members affiliated to the
Communications Society…
Deliverables from WP 6 (ULB):

Scientific publications and talks.
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D.4. Planning
See Excel sheet in electronic version.
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D.5. Budget
D.5.1 ULB
1. Staff costs 245.000 €

1.1 Staff 245.000 €
Name Diploma Function Allocation Cost
1.1.1 Determe Jean- PhD Engineering Researcher (%) 100,00% 180.000 €
1.1.2 François
Junior Engineer M.Sc. EE /Phys E Researcher 100,00% 65.000 €
1.1.3
1.2 Self-employed 0 €
1.2.1 persons
1.2.2
2. Operating costs 32.000 €

2.1 Wifi crowd monitoring 1 x 22000 22.000 €
2.2 prototype
Conferences 4x1500 6.000 €
2.3 Scientific missions 8x500 4.000 €
3. Investment costs 0 €
4. General costs 27.700 €

10% (Operating costs + Salaried staff costs) 27.700 €
5. Subcontracting 11.616 €
5.1 BME On-site system installation/de-installation 11.616 €
TOTAL BUDGET 316.316 €

TOTAL SUBSIDY 100% 316.316 €
PARTNER'S SHARE 0 €
Operating costs
• Costs related to the design of the Wifi sensors that will be deployed during the events, expecting 40
sensors at 500€ unit cost (this includes electronic platform, cases, antenna, cables...). Laptop for
control and configuration.
• Dissemination and scientific missions: all missions required to either disseminate the scientific results
of MUFINS, or to attend top quality scientific meetings related to MUFINS, or to visit international
experts for advising.
Subcontracting costs
Installation and de-installation of the MUFINS Wifi sensors at each event organized by BME and selected
by the partners. These costs include the technical manpower, and renting of the elevator to have access
to the optimal positioning of the sensors. Four events will serve as operational environment, at least, but
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we provision six installations/de-installations in case of necessity during the project. See price offer in
appendix.
D.5.2 Proximus

1. Staff costs 135.000 €
1.1 Staff 135.000 €
Name Diploma Function Allocation Cost
1.1.1 Gerdy Seynaeve Industrial Eng. Business dev. (%) 35,00% 72.000 €
1.1.2 Evi Heeman Commercial Sc. Business leader 15,00% 36.000 €
1.1.3 Data scientist Eng. Data scientist 25,00% 27.000 €
1.2 Self-employed 0 €
1.2.1 persons
1.2.2
2. Operating costs 27.000 €

2.1 Telco costs 27.000 €
2.2
2.3
3. Investment costs 0 €
4. General costs 16.200 €

10% (Operating costs + Salaried staff costs) 16.200 €
5. Subcontracting 0 €
5.1
TOTAL BUDGET 178.200 €

TOTAL SUBSIDY 40% 71.280 €
PARTNER'S SHARE 106.920 €

Operating costs
• Costs related to the cellular communications from the Wifi sensors (on the basis of 40 sensors)

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Part E. Valorisation of the project
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E.1 Industrial valorisation of the project
E.1.1 Description of the competition – Added value of the solution envisaged by the project
The market for people tracking changes as fast as these words are written. For safety reasons, the monitoring of
crowd density and flow behavior is of high importance, in particular in cases of limited number of escape paths.
Unfortunately, and especially for open and public events with no explicitly given entry/exit points, there is no (fully
developed) technology solution available on the market, to enable security personnel to capture and monitor large
and spatially distributed crowds.
Two technologies might be considered as direct or non-direct competitors to the MUFINS solution:
• Video-based solutions (non-direct competition)

• Smartphone-based solutions (direct competition)
Global Picture - Competitors Mapping
Non-Direct Competitors – Video Based Technologies
Surveillance cameras are inexpensive and everywhere these days but the manpower required to monitor and
analyze them is expensive. Consequently, videos from these cameras are usually monitored sparingly or not at all;
they are often used merely as archive, to refer back to once an incident is known to have taken place. Since this
technology doesn’t use mobile network data, this technology is considered as indirect competition.
Within this category we consider The Safe Group a non-direct competitor.
Ø The Safe Group Solutions (https://www.thesafegroup.com/nl/services)
Clear description of the solution:
The Safe Group is involved in tailor made solutions for clients and the main solutions they provide in relation with
this topic are SafeCam (Specific Cameras); SafeSign (Screens and Visuals) and SafeCom (Wifi Network
Solutions).
They have already provided solutions to customers like Ancienne Belgique (improve cameras and positioning) and
PukkelPop (provide screens and ability to communicate in any given situation).
Somehow, the solutions exist but the company doesn’t provide a full-integrated solution and is not able to analyze
real-time data without an operator analyzing the screens.
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Added value of the envisaged solution
Compared to the MUFINS proposal, the technologies of the Safe group are great independently from each other
but not “Smart” together. Moreover, they don’t address the real-time management of events completely because
there always has to be someone who analyzes the screens. The MUFINS solution addresses the real-time
management component since it doesn’t need human analyzing interference. The visuals and the data actually
speak for themselves and even offer a forecasting feature.
Direct Competitors - Smartphones (In-network)

The direct competition uses the same technology and sometimes the same methodology. Since both aspects have
been discussed in the previous sections, we will not review the subject further. We go straight to the competitors in
this domain, being Cropland and CellInt.
Ø Competitor 1: Cropland
Although Cropland delivers analytics intelligence, it is actually Orange who is seen as a direct competitor. Orange
offers the end product to customers and partners with Cropland in order to give their mobile network data an
analytics layer.
Cropland analyzes the mobile data sets given by Orange and proposes a methodology to compute the real number
of (daily) visitors and how they behave. Mostly, data is delivered after the facts. But recently a real-time component
has been added. Besides that, the parties are testing femto – and Wifi cells to improve the measurement level.
Although this competitor comes close enough, MUFINS firstly has a strong position in terms of
representativeness thanks to the Proximus mobile market share of approximately 40%. Secondly, and until now,
no signs of predictive analytics on the roadmap on the Orange side. Lastly, Proximus has a lot of data knowledge
in-house already and will only strengthen their data science even more thanks to the ULB partnership. Therefore,
they don’t need to outsource their data like Orange does.
Ø Competitor 2: CellInt (http://www.cellint.com/)
Cellint deploys a solution called NetEyes. This solution connects to the cellular network and tracks all active phones
anonymously in real time. Based on a unique signature method, collected from crowd sources, NetEyes assigns
GPS coordinates to each signaling message reported on the network, thus achieving orders of magnitude more
accurate positioned than any passive cellular location technology
The street level location accuracy enables many new use-cases to mobile carriers, which are not possible by using
standard triangulation or cell-sector methods.
Although the NetEyes solution doesn’t need any measuring hardware, the GPS coordinates they use are far more
an approximation of reality. GPS data, after all, only covers 10% - 30% of population compared to the 40% mobile
market share of Proximus. Also here, no mention of forecasting features.
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E.1.2 Market study
Although the relevance of this project has been discussed earlier, we want to emphasize again the importance of
this solution from a commercial point of view.
First of all, Proximus, who takes the commercial lead, is working on and commercializing professional location
analytics since 2012. Today the analytics solutions are based on historic anonymized mobile network data. With
these solutions, Proximus was able to successfully attract some market segments like the public sector, the retail
segment, tourism agencies, mobility organizations and (public) event organizers.
What became clear during the last year in between customer feedback rounds, is the fact that certain customer
segments appreciate the existing solutions but start to demand additional features. We are talking about a) cities
and communes and their respective public safety forces like police departments (referred later on as ‘Smart
cities’); b) private safety forces and c) event organizers:
• First, in order to have a good grip on crowd control and thus on safety, the different market segments
request data analyses in real time. Today, data is only available one day after the facts. This is useful in
certain use cases, but when it comes to having a maximum impact on security, real time data is far more
needed.
• Reporting is done nowadays based on Proximus’ cell locations, called TACS. Cell locations vary from 50m²
to 2km², and exist there where mobile masts meet. Customers in the mentioned market segments seem to
have troubles sometimes with the selection of the zone they want or need to monitor, because the cell
location may be too big compared to their zone of interest and therefore contains too much data noise.
Reporting on a more precise level (as in: street level, event level…) is therefore in high demand.
• Although a forecasting component is not mentioned by everyone in the targeted segments, several
customers start to show their interest in preventive analytics. Moreover, this will be a logical sequel when
the other 2 aspects are fulfilled in order to not only manage an event of activity, but to be able to prevent
incidents or staff inefficiency for example.
The proposed innovation is thus important in the context of occurring (and even not yet explicitly present) customer
needs. For Proximus, the innovation will be a needed and logical complement of their existing analytics solution
portfolio. The solution also fits into the strategy of the enterprise namely: becoming a digital service provider and
digital service enabler. By using the MUFINS solution based on macro mobile network data and micro Wifi signals,
Proximus (and ULB) will enable customers to keep track of the crowd in a digital approach.
Concerning the competition, being a Telco, Proximus mostly encounters Orange, whom works together with
Cropland. As they are already offering real – time and Wifi data, this only increases the need to develop these
features. The Safe Group, well known for their added value in the event context, has a big share in monitoring
events and festivities through camera surveillance. Because of the lack of granular and real - time possibilities until
now, Proximus did not take the advantage to position itself based on real-time monitoring in this market segment
yet.
E.1.1 Financial plan
For the financial plan, we stipulated a 5Y plan. We have made a distinction in revenues between the real-time*
cellular aspect (*named RT in the 5Y plan below), the Wifi part and the forecasting part in order to keep a clear
structure. Besides that, we only mention the project development costs in 2018, before considering OPEX, CAPEX
and COGS as from 2019.
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The MUFINS solution as such will be positioned into different pricing models:
• A 24H visual streaming possibility on a Proximus branded platform.

• Similar to the 24H visual streaming option, smaller streaming periods can be ordered on the same visual
platform (e.g. 3H, 6H, …). The fast reporting model refers to this possibility.
• The data can also be streamed directly into the customer tools through an API. No possibility for visuals of
course in this scenario, but the same information is delivered and the customer can choose his streaming
periods as well.

On a price scale, the API will be low priced while the 24H visual stream will know a higher pricing because of the
long streaming period and because of ready – to – use visual functionality.
The Wifi aspect reinforces every pricing model. For those customers who need to combine the large-scale data
with the small-scale function, the Wifi option will be an additional feature in the streaming process and is necessary
to minimize the monitoring zones.
The same logic goes for the forecasting component, which will serve as a reinforcing feature of the real-time cellular
part.
Both parts will only generate revenues as of 2020. The RT section will be ready a bit sooner and could get
commercialized already by the end of 2019, at first as a standalone solution.
The revenues below are based on the following assumptions:
• Smart cities will mainly be interested in recurring visual streaming on the platform, as they don’t have the
budget nor the know-how to invest in data science tools and people. Since they will monitor city activities
(weekly markets, monthly events…), their interest will be recurrent. Also, and because of the recurrent
interest, forecasting capabilities may appeal to this segment.
• Event Organizers will have an interest in short streaming moments during a limited period of time, as their
event will probably occur once a year (sport activities like marathons or cycling contests; music festivals…).
In this segment, intentions to insert naked (thus non-visual data) data into own tools, are low.
• Private safety forces will probably have the investing potential to install their own data science capabilities
as they can ‘pass the bill’ to their end customer and therefore the API will suit them. They will monitor
locations, events and activities on behalf of their customer demands. The forecasting aspect could be
needed and will vary from customer to customer.
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E.1.2 Business Plan
As already mentioned in the market study, Proximus has an established experience in historic macro analytics.
Proximus follows a vertical strategy when addressing customers. It approaches the following segments:
• Cities and communes à to analyse mobility issues and/or city footfall

• Retailers à to help them in their location assessment
• Tourism agencies à to help the agencies understand tourism footfall and behaviour
• Mobility organizations à to help these organizations unravel mobility patterns
• Event organizers à to help organizers understand visitor behaviour
Proximus positions itself these days mainly next to Orange, whom through a partnership with Cropland, also
addresses smart cities and smart retail in particular with analytics based on mobile network data. Since Orange
has deepened its offer with real-time analytics and with tools to improve measurement and because of emerging
customer needs, the necessity to add these features to the product portfolio is clear.
Smart cities, private safety forces and event organizers are considered to be the main customer segments. By the
end of 2021 Proximus wants to conquer nearly half the ‘smart city’ and event market. Although there are 150
recognized security firms, only about 15% - 20% will purchase the solution. Not every security firm has sufficient
OPEX to make the investment. Therefore, the market share seems reasonable. Other segments that Proximus will
not chase actively, but that could be reached as well by the solution (use cases will be different though) are theme
parks, tourism agencies and advertising agencies.
TOTAL VOLUME TAKE RATE

Unique cust ome2019
rs 20 18 20 19
2020 20 20 3Y %
2021
Cit ie s & commune s (including police & ot he r safe t y de p.) 599 15 0 222 28 2 4 7%
Cre at ive , art s and e nt e rt ainme nt act ivit ie s 35 0 10 5 14 0 16 8 48%
S port s act ivit ie s and amuse me nt and re cre at ion act ivit ie s 68 17 22 27 39 %
P rivat e re cognize d se curit y firms 15 0 12 18 23 15 %
The me P arks 25 3 4 5 20 %
Tourism age ncie s 18 2 4 5 25 %
Adve rt ising age ncie s 8 1 2 2 23%
Tot al 28 9 4 12 5 10

The solution will be offered through a Proximus branded platform called MyAnalytics in a ready-to-use way from
the start (2019). Additionally, an API (2019) will be offered through Enabling Company known as EnCo, another
Proximus platform that serves as an enabling market place for internal and external assets. Other platforms or
other channels could be considered later on (2020).
A steady marketing plan will attract customers to the two distinct channels. The initial marketing plan (2019) will,
among other things, consist of:
• A press release
• A social media plan
• Content marketing on Proximus’ blog and website
• Mailings
• Promotions
Once the solution can be commercialized, Proximus’ sales force will be deployed as well to spread the word.
Trainings and marketing material will be foreseen. Sales people working on the corporate segment and on the
Medium enterprise segment, will be involved.
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After the first year, the marketing campaign will continue, although in a less notable way.
Besides a sales force who will appear after commercialization, other full-time equivalents (fte’s) will work on the
project during the 15 man months as in:
• ULB’s research & development team
• Proximus’ data analysts
• Proximus’ product managers
Proximus’ IT, security and legal department will be consulted too, but will not provide dedicated fte’s.
After the research and development period and thus as from 2019, Proximus’ analysts and product managers will
continue to work on the product in order to make solution evolutions possible.
E.1.3 Valorisation of the project in BCR

The Brussels location will be crucial in our business model because of some reasons:
• Proximus and ULB are local players and thus workforces are based in Brussels.
• Our capital has developed a very large range of successful events over the last decades. The amount of
people from Brussels and abroad attending events like the Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret, the Brussel Summer
Festival, the Jazz Marathon … has increased. Unfortunately, these major events have become a target for
terrorist attacks. Therefore, Brussels Major Events, a local player as well, is in demand for collaborations
and is the key partner for the early stage of the project.
• The first clients will come through them and so Brussels will be crucial as a test-market. The early success
and the first 100k€ turnover will be 100% Brussels-related.
E.1.4 Sustainability of the results
Proximus, ULB and BME will work together on this project.

Proximus and ULB will take the role of product and solution developers, BME will be supportive in the prototyping.
Proximus takes the commercial leadership after the development phase. The commercialization of the product will
be based on a licensing agreement between Proximus and ULB. The agreement handles the intellectual property
aspect and points out that every partner has the IP rights when it comes to their development. Since Proximus has
the commercial lead, a revenue sharing model will be set up between Proximus and ULB with a constant and a
variable fee. This agreement will overlap a time span of 3Y – 5Y, once the solution is ready to sell.
BME will not participate in the revenue share model, but they will profit free-of-charge of the solution through
Proximus during the same time span. They will keep on helping to improve the solution during the commercialisation
stage, as this is important for further fine- tuning and solution evolution.
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E.2. Academic valorisation
1. Publication strategy and objectives
Scientific publications
The results associated with the different research questions will be disseminated by means of publications.
Depending on the nature and the size of the contributions, flagship conferences or highly ranked journals will
be privileged. When relevant, publications will be co-authored by ULB-WCG and Proximus.
Public dissemination
The domain of crowd monitoring for safety purposes will have direct impact on the public at large. In this
project, we will develop a prototype covering the main events organized in Brussels, such as Plaisirs
d’hiver/Winterpret and the Brussels Summer Festival, which are renowned well beyond the Brussels region.
MUFINS will so have a public visibility throughout Belgium, at least.
The project’s staff will be available to answer questions asked by media (newspapers, news and other
informative programs on TV, ...) in the field of the project. ULB has a dedicated Communications Offices, which
assist academic researchers in dissemination to the public at large, such as editorial support for press
communications and media training.
Consecutively to the first prototype deployed during Plaisirs d’Hiver/Winterpret 2016, Jean-François Determe
was invited to give a talk at the Brussels Parliament in the framework of a smart city event. This kind of
awareness raising of politicians will be pursued during MUFINS.
Popularization of science
Campus open days are organized at ULB at the occasion of which high-school students get the opportunity to
discover lectures and the recent advances in different laboratories. During the « Printemps des sciences »
(Science Spring) elementary school children are invited to discover more basic physics principles but possibly
accompanied by more recent technological and scientific results, presented in a style both attractive and
relevant for a general public at large. The MUFINS system would be a clear demonstrator of the societal impact
of technology and engineering.
Magazines associated with different specialization levels could host a contribution from our projects: the G-
Square distributed to all Alumni of the Brussels School of Engineering, IEEE Spectrum to all IEEE members,
IEEE Communications Magazine to all IEEE members affiliated to the Communications Society.
2. Objectives and impact beyond publication

Team reinforcement in the field of localization and big data analytics
Professors Philippe De Doncker and François Horlin from the Wireless Communications Group have actively
participated to the evolution of the emerging communications systems in the past 10 years. They have been
recognized for several contributions in the fields of channel modelling and modem design.
Two years ago, they decided to merge their activities to still improve the impact of their group at international
level. They focused their research activities on the interplay existing between the communication and
localisation functionalities for emerging cellular networks. In short, the mission of the team is to investigate
how the communication functionality can be optimized by knowing the trajectory of the communicating mobile
terminal, and conversely how the localisation of the mobile terminal can be acquired by analysing its
communications signals.
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A team of the researchers is now working on complemetary topics in that context:
- Mathieu Van Eeckhaute (Ph.D. researcher, 2016-2020) investigates the localisation of broadband
mobile terminals in an outdoor environment based on the estimation of the signal time-of-arrival at the
cellular base stations. The specificities of the new waveforms foreseen for 5G are taken into account.
- Thomas Van der Vorst (Ph.D. researcher, 2016-2020) rather focuses on the positioning of ultra-low
power sensors in an indoor environment. The positioning is based on the estimation of signal angle-
of-arrivals at multi-antenna base stations specifically deployed for localization and RF power feeding
purposes.
- Complementary to the research of Mathieu Van Eeckhaute and Thomas Van der Vorst, Alexey Garcia
Padilla (Ph.D. researcher, 2017-2021) and Shaghayegh Monfared (Ph.D. researcher, 2017-2020) will
investigate the impact of the system uncertainties on the localization performance, targetting
broadband terminal and low-power sensors respectively. The theory of the polynomial chaos will be
used to analytically assess the impact of the uncertainty of parameters such as the base station
position.
- Finally, Hien Trung Nguyen (Postdoc researcher, 2017-2019) will build a prototype of the localisation
system based on software defined radios. It will be used to validate the localisation algorithms real-
life.
The MUFINS project will be part of this important dynamics. It will go one step further by exploiting the
localization information acquired by observing the communications signals transmitted by the smartphones to
build a crowd monitoring system. Machine learning strategies will be deployed to interpret the large amounts
of localization data acquired by the cellular and WiFi networks and anticipate the crowd dynamics. We extend
therefore the compentences of the team to the field of big data analytics.
Collaboration with Proximus

Until now, Proximus was mainly mentor of WCG projects. Practically, Proximus was interested in actively
following the results of some of our projects and to give active feedbacks in order to detect the challenges that
can be encountered for industrial valorization.
MUFINS goes one step further in the collaboration as ULB-WCG and Proximus are real partners, and will co-
create a system that will be fully valorized by Proximus. The objective of the WCG is to make MUFINS the
enabler for long term collaboration with Proximus, the major telco actor of the country.
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Part F. Annexes and signatures
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F.1. Summary of the annexes to be provided
c Bank account details ( = official document from the bank, and not an e-banking screenshot – if not
submitted at the expression of interest stage & for companies only)
c the CVs of the key people
c an organigram of the company(ies)
c the full diagram and its electronic version
c the specifications and the tenders submitted by sub-contractors if any
c the business plan for the product(s) or the company(ies) (containing the financial plan)
c the documents confirming the ability of the company to guarantee its share in the project
c any other document which could support the application for aid:
o Support letter from Brussels Major Events
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F.2. Sworn declaration, undertakings, authorisation and signature
F.2.1 ULB
We, the undersigned ENGLERT Yvon, in the capacity of rector of the ULB, and XXXXX, in the capacity of full
professor at the ULB, certify that the ULB is aware of the provisions which follow and undertakes to observe
them (tick the relevant boxes):
• a the project did not commence before the submission of the aid application with Innoviris;
• a the project is not carried out, either partially or in full, on behalf of a third party;
• a the costs incurred in the context of the project are not covered, either partially or in full, by any
public aid measure. Likewise, the partner undertakes not to make any new co-financing applications
for costs incurred during the project to other regional, national or community authorities;
• a the consortium will sign a consortium agreement before the start of the project.
I, ENGLERT Yvon, authorise Innoviris to carry out the necessary enquiries for the examination of this
application and declare that the information contained within this form is accurate and correct.
Date: Authorised signature:
In the presence of Prof. Ph. De Doncker
In the presence of Prof. F. Horlin
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F.2.2 Proximus
We, the undersigned LHOSTTE FREDERIC in the capacity of Head of Advanced Telco Services certify that
the company Proximus is aware of the provisions which follow and undertakes to observe them (tick the
relevant boxes):
• athe project did not commence before the submission of the aid application with Innoviris;
• a the project is not carried out, either partially or in full, on behalf of a third party;
• a the costs incurred in the context of the project are not covered, either partially or in full, by any
public aid measure. Likewise, the partner undertakes not to make any new co-financing applications
for costs incurred during the project to other regional, national or community authorities;
• a the consortium will sign a consortium agreement before the start of the project.
For industrial partners:
• a the company has, or will implement before the commencement of the project, a mechanism to
monitor the costs relating to the project, which will make it possible to justify the costs incurred during
the project, and audit them;
• a the company is in good financial health and has not initiated insolvency proceedings;
• a the company undertakes to immediately notify Innoviris of any substantial modification which
occurs in the context of the project (cessation, placing on standby, or decrease in the size of the
project, etc.) or with regards to its situation (in particular in the event of insolvency, etc.);
• a the company shall repay the paid capital grants, increased by the legally applicable interest rate,
in the event of improper or non-compliant management regarding the general rules for Research and
Development projects/programmes, or in the event of non-compliance with one or more of its
commitments.
I authorise Innoviris to carry out the necessary enquiries for the examination of this application and
declare that the information contained within this form is accurate and correct.
T: 02.600.50.34 F: 02.600.50.47 Page 61 / 61

ULB - Proximus: Team Up 2017, Artificial Intelligence Full Proposal Application Form

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ULB - Proximus: Team Up 2017, Artificial Intelligence Full Proposal Application Form

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Team Up 2017,

Full proposal application form.

Submit in two double-sided copies + send a digital version

Start date of the project 01/02/2018

• Philippe De Doncker, Professor, ULB, Wireless Communications Group

A.2. Identity of the industrial applicant

Name of the company and legal form Proximus SA

Registered office Boulevard du Roi Albert II, 27 - 1030 Schaerbeek

Enterprise number BE 0202.239.951 Date of incorporation: 19 juillet 1930

Telephone: + 32 2 202 41 11 E-mail: see

Person legally authorised to bind the company

Administrative manager for the project

Technical and scientific manager for the project

Université libre de Bruxelles

Wireless Communications Group

Person legally authorised to bind the laboratory

Administrative (financial) manager for the project

Technical and scientific manager for the project

Title of the project:

Summary of the project:

A.5. Start date and duration of the project

Project with a duration of 24 months from 01/02/2018 to 31/01/2020

Total budget 494.516 €

An overview of the company structure is available below:

B.2. Share capital structure

Amount of capital 1.000.000€k

Business name Identity Percentage or number of shares

Explanation of the evolution in the shareholding in recent years

Size of the company

B.4. Financial details

Year 2016* 2015 2014

B.6. R&D budget

Year 2016* 2015 2014

B.7. Statement of debts and payment arrears

Year 2016* 2015 2014

• Aid from other regions/federal aid:

Authority No. dossier Subsidy (+ period) EUR

UpTEmPo 2y (2016-2018) 239.383 EUR

Programme No. dossier Subsidy (+ period) EUR

Experience in the research area

D.1.1 Origins and objectives of the project

D.1.2 Technological positioning

Pre-existent Wifi system extension

Pre-existent Cellular system extension

Data processing and visualization

The technological challenges for Proximus are related to

ULB/Wireless Communications Group

• Define, with Proximus, the system general architecture and specifications

• Define, with ULB, the system general architecture and specifications

D.2. Place(s) where the project will be carried out

WP 1: System Architecture, Prototyping and Validation

9 man-months for ULB D (project start)

Overall objectives of the WP:

Task 1.1: System specifications

Objectives of task 1.1:

Description of the method:

Technical challenges associated with task 1.1: N.A.

Risks associated with task 1.1: N.A.

Deliverables (ULB/Proximus cooperation): Specification document

Task 1.2: Development cycle management

Description of the methods & tasks:

Deliverables (ULB/Proximus cooperation):