Results in Physics 7 (2017) 4294–4295

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Results in Physics
journal homepage: www.journals.elsevier.com/results-in-physics

Urban heat wave hazard and risk assessment

Gary Jedlovec ⇑, Dakota Crane, Dale Quattrochi
Earth Science Branch, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally. The intensification
Received 5 September 2017 of the effects of heat waves by the urban heat island during extended periods of extreme heat, combined
Received in revised form 24 October 2017 with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters and are likely to become more
Accepted 27 October 2017
numerous as a result of climate change. Climatological weather station data, moderate resolution thermal
Available online 28 October 2017
imagery from Earth-orbiting satellites, and demographic information for selected cities were use in this
research to develop a heat wave risk product as a potential warning tool for public health decision makers
Keywords:
and the general public.
Heat wave risk
Heat wave hazard
Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.
Demographics org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Urban heat island

Introduction temperature maps, locally derived temperature thresholds indicat-

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-
related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous
as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves due
to land use in the urban environment combined with local demo-
graphics are key elements leading to these disasters. The average
annual number of fatalities directly attributed to heat in the United
States is about 400. The 1995 Chicago heat wave, led to approxi-
mately 600 heat-related deaths over a period of five days.
The National Weather Service issues heat advisories and exces-
sive heat warnings based on regional observations and weather
forecasts that the apparent temperature (heat index) will exceed
100F and 105F, respectively, for the next 48 h. However, local con-
ditions may make these deterministic thresholds somewhat less
appropriate. Empirical models with urban parametrizations can
identify heat risk at somewhat finer scales [2]. Better warning of
the potential hazards may help lower deaths associated with heat
waves. In this work, we examine extreme heat events in order to
develop a satellite-based heat wave hazard and risk product. While
the satellite observation approach is subject to some limitations, it
has the potential to capture more spatial variation than the exist-
ing excessive heat warnings.
Method
This paper draws on the work Keramitsoglou et al. [1] to
develop a heat wave hazard map using satellite-derived ambient
ing extreme conditions, and the combination of the temperature
data with demographic information to create a heat wave risk
map. This approach is highlighted in Fig. 1. Thermal data from
NASA satellites with afternoon observation times were used to
derive estimates of maximum land surface temperature (LST) over
urban regions. The LST values were converted to ambient temper-
ature through regression with local station data. These derived
maximum ambient temperature maps were downscaled to 30 m
to match land use databases. Ambient temperature was used
instead of apparent temperature (heat index value) because it is
more directly derived from satellite LST data and is highly corre-
lated to apparent temperature with an almost constant offset for
humidity during heat waves. Climatological weather station data
were used to identify the hottest 97, 98, and 99 percentile days
based on ambient temperature over the preceding 30 years for
each urban region. These temperature thresholds were used to
identify pixels in the satellite-derived maximum ambient temper-
ature maps that exceed these hazard values to identify mild, mod-
erate, and extreme hazard regions for the urban environment.
Census track demographic information on population density, per-
centage of the population over 65 years of age, and mean income
for each urban region were downscaled to 30 m to match the
satellite-based hazard map. The hazard map data and demographic
information were combined in an adjustable weighting scheme to
produce a heat wave risk (HWR) map for the urban regions. Daily
updates of the maximum LST data were used to create additional
hazard maps for the urban regions over time.

⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: gary.jedlovec@nasa.gov (G. Jedlovec).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2017.10.056
2211-3797/Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
 G. Jedlovec et al. / Results in Physics 7 (2017) 4294–4295
Fig. 1. Schematic showing the combination of satellite data and demographic information to produce the Heat Wave Risk (HWR) product.
Fig. 2. Heat Wave Risk (HWR) map for Atlanta, Georgia on June 29, 2012. Regions
without demographic information are displayed as white. Blue lines represent
interstate highways and red lines designate U.S. highways and roads. (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is
referred to the web version of this article.)
Results and discussion
The application of the above approach to Atlanta, Georgia is
shown in Fig. 2 for June 29, 2012. Land surface temperature (LST
values) were obtained from MODIS and VIIRS sensors on NASA
polar-orbiting meteorological satellites at approximately 1 km
spatial resolution. The afternoon passes of these satellites were
used to approximate maximum heating and therefore maximum
ambient temperatures. Cloud-clearing and daily compositing pro-
vided a nearly continuous spatial distribution of LST values over
the region. LST data were converted to apparent temperatures
4295
through regression to create a heat wave hazard map. The resulting
spatial variability in risk categories comes from local variations in
LST and census track demographics (not shown). This type of heat
wave risk variability is not available with the current NWS
approach based on synoptic weather station and forecast guidance.
Not all hot days are a public health risk and the sensitivity of the
population varies with a number of factors including location. A
prolonged ambient temperature of 97F is a significant environ-
mental hazard for Boston, Massachusetts but this temperature is
common throughout most of the summer in Atlanta, Georgia and
poses a minimal hazard. While a number of demographic values
could be used, population density, age, and economic status were
deemed to be most relevant. A generalized formula was used to
combine the heat wave hazard product with these factors to pro-
duce the heat wave risk product. Future activities will include
the use of high resolution land use data sets and less frequent high
resolution thermal imagery as potential weighting factors in the
downscaling process.
Acknowledgements
This research was funded through NASA Headquarter’s Science
Innovation Fund (SIF) program and supported Ms. Crane’s summer
internship at Marshall Space Flight Center. Dr. Mohammad
Al-Hamdan assisted with Arc-GIS data processing.
References
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Paganini M. Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial
intelligence fuzzy logic. Environ Monit Assess 2010;185(10):8239–58.
[2] Georgia Institute of technology (GIT). Louisville Urban Heat Management Study,
Draft Report; April 2016. Available https://louisvilleky.gov/sites/
default/files/sustainability/pdf_files/louisville_heat_mgt_report_final_web.pdf,
108 pgs.