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CIRP 93 (2020) 844–849
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53rd CIRP Conference on Mechanical Engineering Systems

53rd53rd
CIRPCIRP Conference
Conference on Manufacturing
on Mechanical Systems
Engineering Systems
Future Scenarios of Value Creation in Mechanical Engineering
Future Scenarios ofDesign
28th CIRP
– Derivation Value Creation
Conference, Mayin2018,
of Recommendations Mechanical Engineering
Nantes, France
for Action
– Derivation
A new methodology of Recommendations
to analyze the functional andfor Actionarchitecture
physical of
a
Philipp Humbeck *, Siegfried Mangold , Thomas Bauernhansl
b b

existing productsPhilipp for Humbeckan assembly

a
*, Siegfriedoriented
Mangoldb,product family identification
Thomas Bauernhansl b
University of Stuttgart, Graduate School of Excellence advanced Manufacturing Engineering, Nobelstr. 12, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
a

University
b
of Stuttgart, Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA, Nobelstr. 12, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
a
University of Stuttgart, Graduate School of Excellence advanced Manufacturing Engineering, Nobelstr. 12, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
* Corresponding author.ofTel.:
University
b
Stuttgart,Paul Stief *, Jean-Yves Dantan, Alain Etienne, Ali Siadat
Fraunhofer
+49(0)175 Institute
1644480; E-mailforaddress:
Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA, Nobelstr. 12, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
philipp.humbeck@gsame.uni-stuttgart.de
* Corresponding
Écoleauthor. Tel.:Supérieure
Nationale +49(0)175d’Arts
1644480;
et Métiers, philipp.humbeck@gsame.uni-stuttgart.de
Arts et Métiers
E-mail address: ParisTech, LCFC EA 4495, 4 Rue Augustin Fresnel, Metz 57078, France

*Abstract
Corresponding author. Tel.: +33 3 87 37 54 30; E-mail address: paul.stief@ensam.eu
Abstract
Increasing volatility and individualization has great impact on value creation, resulting in a complex and interdependent corporate environment.
The analysis of possible developments of the future becomes a crucial success factor. By adopting the scenario technique this study aims at
Increasing volatility and individualization has great impact on value creation, resulting in a complex and interdependent corporate environment.
Abstract
deriving future scenarios for value creation in the mechanical engineering context focusing on innovation leadership, differentiation through
The analysis of possible developments of the future becomes a crucial success factor. By adopting the scenario technique this study aims at
partnerships and hardware supplier status. The consistency is then evaluated and possible options for action are derived by mechanical engineering
deriving future scenarios for value creation in the mechanical engineering context focusing on innovation leadership, differentiation through
Inexperts.
today’sThe
partnerships results
business
and not only
environment,
hardware support
supplier the practitioners
trend
status. towards
The to understand
more
consistency product future value
variety
is then evaluated and creation options
but also
andcustomization
possible inspires
is unbroken.
for scientists
to thisconducting
Duederived
action are further
development,
by mechanical the research
need of
engineering
towards
agile and implementing
reconfigurable futurology into strategy research.
experts. The results not production
only support systems emerged
practitioners to to cope withfuture
understand various products
value andbut
creation product families.scientists
also inspires To design and optimize
conducting production
further research
systems
towardsas well as to choose
implementing the optimal
futurology product
into strategy matches, product analysis methods are needed. Indeed, most of the known methods aim to
research.
© 2019aThe
analyze Authors.
product or onePublished by Elsevier
product family on theB.V.
physical level. Different product families, however, may differ largely in terms of the number and
© 2020
This
nature The
isofan Authors.
open accessPublished
components. article
This fact by
under Elsevier B.V.
the CCanBY-NC-ND
impedes license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
efficient comparison and choice of appropriate product family combinations for the production
© 2019
This is anThe Authors.
open access Published by
article under Elsevier B.V.
the scientific
CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review
system.
This is Aan newunder
open responsibility
methodology
access article of
isunder the
proposed
the to analyze
CC committee
BY-NC-ND existing of the
products
license 53rd
in CIRP
view ofConference on Manufacturing
their functional and physicalSystems
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) architecture. The aim is to cluster
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
these products in new assembly oriented product families for the optimization of existing
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing assembly lines and the creation of future reconfigurable
Systems
Keywords:systems.
assembly Mechanical engineering;
Based on Datum Futurology; Strategic
Flow Chain, Management;
the physical Business
structure transformation
of the products is analyzed. Functional subassemblies are identified, and
aKeywords:
functionalMechanical
analysis is performed.
engineering; Moreover,
Futurology; a hybrid
Strategic functionalBusiness
Management; and physical architecture graph (HyFPAG) is the output which depicts the
transformation
similarity between product families by providing design support to both, production system planners and product designers. An illustrative
example of a nail-clipper is used to explain the proposed methodology. An industrial case study on two product families of steering columns of
1. Introduction
thyssenkrupp Presta France is then carried out to give a first industrial evaluation contribution is declining.
of the proposed approach. This transformation process also
©1.2017
Introduction
The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. affects
contribution is declining. This and
the technology-oriented product-related
transformation sectoralso
process of
It is important for companies to be prepared for
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 28th CIRP a rapidly mechanical
Design
affects engineering
theConference 2018.
technology-oriented [7]. The business model to
and product-related sector of date
changing business
It is important environment
for companies to be[1]. Reasons
prepared for a include
rapidly consists
mechanical of selling products.
engineering [7]. ItThe
can business
be expanded by offering
model to date
accelerated
Keywords:
changing technological
Assembly; progress,
Family ever
Designenvironment
business method; [1]. shorter
identification product
Reasons life
include customer-specific,
consists of selling products. It can be expanded bysoftware-
performance-enhancing and offering
cycles but also
accelerated the increasing
technological speed ever
progress, of innovation [2]. Porter
shorter product life supported solutions including
customer-specific, the product, thus and
performance-enhancing creating greater
software-
mentioned in 1985 already that companies
cycles but also the increasing speed of innovation [2]. are under constant
Porter added value for customers and companies [6].
supported solutions including the product, thus creating greater Due to the
pressure to in innovate in order to outperform competitors and to growing volatility of environmental changes and the increasing
1.mentioned
Introduction1985 already that companies are under constant added
of value for
the product customers
range and companies
and characteristics [6]. Due and/or
manufactured to the
gain a competitive
pressure to innovate in order advantage [3]. Innovations
to outperform competitors enable
and to complexity
growing and dynamic
volatility of of processes
environmental and systems,
changes and the companies
increasing
assembled in this system. In this context, the main challenge in
significant
gain a improvement
competitive of products,
advantage services
[3]. or processes,
Innovations the
enable must act andand
complexity think ahead of
dynamic to ensure
processes flexibility
and to and thecompanies
systems, ability to
Due to the fast development in the domain of modelling and analysis is now not only cope with single
development of new
significant improvement potential markets or the establishment of change. The cases of Nokia or Kodak demonstrate what
abilitycan
communication
alternative and an of
organizational
products,
ongoing
methods
services
trend
[4]. Digital
or processes,and
of digitization
Transformation
the must act and
products,
happen The a think ahead
limited
if new product
technologies
torange
ensureorflexibility
or existing
trends
and the families,
product
are misjudged
to
or
development of
digitalization, new potentialenterprises
manufacturing markets orare thefacing
establishment of change. cases of Nokia or Kodak demonstrate what can
currently induces
alternative cross-industry
organizational methods innovations
[4]. Digital and isimportant
primarily
Transformation
but also to bemissed
completely
happen if new
able to[8].
analyze
Deloitte,
technologies
andfor to compare products
or example, conducted
trendsthatare
to adefine
misjudged studyor
challenges
driven in today’s and
by induces
information market environments:
communication a continuing
technology. In B2C new
to product
examine families.
scenarios It
for can be
companies observed
in the year classical
2030 in existing
order to
currently
tendency towards cross-industry
reduction of innovations
product and istimes
development primarily
and completely
product missed
families [8]. Deloitte,
are regrouped for example, conducted
in functioninofaclients or viewa study
features.
markets it has
driven byproduct been
information shown that companies
and communication operating
technology. InatB2Cthe show trends,
to examineassembly dangers
scenarios and opportunities
for companies holistic [9].
shortened
customer interface lifecycles.
rely In addition,
primarily on there is
software an increasing
rather than However,
The German oriented
Engineering product in
Federation
the year
families
(VDMA) are2030 in order
hardly
uses viewto find.
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to
marketsofit customization,
demand has been shown thatatcompanies
being the same operating
time in ariskat the
global show trends,
On theon dangers
product and
family opportunities
level, in a holistic [9].
hardware.
customer For B2B
interface rely markets,
primarily this
on entails
software the
rather of
than analyses
The German specific topics,
Engineering suchproducts
as supply
Federation
differ
(VDMA) chains mainly
[10],
uses
infuture
scenario
two
competition
commoditization,with competitors
i.e. the all over the world.
exchangeability of This trend,
hardware [5,6]. main characteristics:
materials on [11] (i)
or machine the number
learning of components
[12], chains
to show and (ii)
how the
the
hardware.
which is the For B2B
inducing the markets,
development this entails the torisk of analyses specific topics, such as supply [10], future
Hence,
commoditization, significance
i.e. the of the from
exchangeability
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physical
of hardware
micro
value-added
[5,6].
type of
materials
components
mechanical (e.g.
engineering mechanical,
industry canelectrical,
develop electronical).
up to 2030.
markets, results in diminished lot sizes due to augmenting Classical[11] or machineconsidering
methodologies learning [12],mainly to single
show products
how the
Hence, varieties
product the significance
(high-volumeofto low-volume
the physical value-added
production) [1]. or solitary, already existing product families analyze2030.
mechanical engineering industry can develop up to the
To cope with
2212-8271 this
© 2019 Theaugmenting variety
Authors. Published as wellB.V.
by Elsevier as to be able to product structure on a physical level (components level) which
identify possible
This is an open optimization
access article under the CCpotentials in
BY-NC-ND license
2212-8271 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. the existing causes difficulties regarding an efficient definition and
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under
production responsibility
system, it is of the scientific
important to have committee
a of the
precise 53rd CIRP Conference
knowledge on Manufacturing
comparison Systemsproduct families. Addressing this
of different
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 53rd CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
2212-8271 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an©open
2212-8271 2017access article Published
The Authors. under theby CC BY-NC-ND
Elsevier B.V. license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of scientific
of the the scientific committee
committee of the of theCIRP
28th 53rdDesign
CIRP Conference
Conference2018.
on Manufacturing Systems
10.1016/j.procir.2020.03.093
 Philipp Humbeck et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 844–849
2 Author name / Procedia CIRP 00 (2020) 000–000
However, the literature has so far not explicitly examined how
value creation in mechanical engineering will develop in the
future. Value creation forms the basis for economic success and
contributes to securing the existence of every company. The
main objective of this study is to identify scenarios for value
creation in mechanical engineering to enable long-term
corporate planning. The following research question can be
derived from the problem outlined, which will be investigated
in this paper:
Which consistent future scenarios regarding value creation
in mechanical engineering can be determined and which
recommendations for action can be derived for companies?
2. Methodology
This section describes the methodological approach of this
study, which is based on the milestones of the scenario
technique according to Gausemeier and is shown in Figure 1
[13]. After each of the six activities to be dealt with
chronologically, interim results are obtained which are
necessary for the continuation of the study. The presented
methodology was carried out by a team of three researchers and
the results were evaluated in a large German engineering
company with ten experts.
Activities Results
Scenario preparation
Scenario objective
Literature analysis
Basis for influencing
factors
Scenario field analysis
Key factors
Scenario forecasting
Future projections
Scenario building
Future scenarios
(Picture of the Future)
Scenario transfer
Options for action
Figure 1. Scientific approach
Within the course of scenario preparation, the design field
"value creation in mechanical engineering" is analyzed. The
objective of determining future scenarios for the period 2030+
is defined. Scenario development considers both external
environmental variables, such as political or social factors, and
internal control variables, such as industry-specific factors.
With the help of a literature analysis, current trends having a
direct influence on value creation in mechanical engineering
are identified. In the scenario field analysis, the trends are
merged with the help of an affinity analysis to similar
categories with suitable generic terms. All generic terms are
influencing factors for the design field value creation. The
influencing factors are limited to 15 key factors in order to
guarantee the optimal quality of the derived scenarios [13,14].
These 15 key factors are analyzed by means of an impact
analysis, i.e. how strongly the factors influence each other, and
a relevance analysis, i.e. how important the factors are for the
design field. In both analyses the influencing factors are
compared and evaluated in a matrix (Fig. 2). The aim of the
845
scenario forecasting is to identify future projections of the 15
key factors. For each key factor, two to three future projections
with a time horizon of approximately >10 years are described.
For derivation, logical as well as extreme but conceivable
future projections are considered. The previously identified
trends serve as the basis for the description of the future
projections. The goal of scenario building is to generate four
consistent scenarios from a bundle of mutually consistent
future projections. A scenario is composed of exactly one
future projection per key factor. Consistency is important for
the credibility of a scenario. In order to obtain conclusive
scenarios, all future projections are mutually evaluated for
consistency and inconsistency in a pairwise comparison. This
evaluation is carried out in a consistency matrix. A scale from
-3 (inconsistent) to +3 (consistent) is used to assess
consistency. +3 means that if one projection occurs, the other
projection will also occur. -3 means the opposite. 0 means the
projections are independent from each other. The analysis of
the consistency matrix was carried out with the help of the
software "Parmenides EIDOS". The software calculates all
possible combinations of future projections. Each scenario has
a consistency value. The consistency value is the sum of the
consistency ratings of all future projection pairs in a scenario
divided by the number of all future projection pairs in a
scenario. The consistency value can reach a maximum of three.
In the last step, "scenario transfer", the four scenarios are used
to identify the effects of the individual scenarios and derive
potential options for action with the help of expert workshops.
3. Theoretical basis
3.1. Change in value creation in mechanical engineering
The structural change in mechanical engineering is
nowadays mainly driven by digitalization. The progressive
development of information and communication technologies
(ICT) will bring about a dramatic structural change [15] by the
networking of physical things or objects with the Internet [16].
Modern ICT leads to new forms of value creation and business
models with a disruptive character [17]. In this study, value is
defined as "the amount that buyers are willing to pay for what
a company provides them" [3]. The goal of value creation is to
achieve a more valuable output compared to the inputs
previously made [3]. It describes the totality of activities in a
company that directly or supportively contribute to the strategic
and long-term development of companies, to the achievement
of operational goals [18]. In order to achieve these goals, during
the various industrial revolutions new relevant value creation
criteria such as efficiency, process orientation or customer
orientation were introduced to further improve the input-output
ratio. In particular, the development of digital products and
services is on the one hand an important factor for intensifying
customer relationships, differentiating oneself from the
competition and realizing new digital business models with
significantly higher efficiency and revenue increases [19–21].
On the other hand, it is an option to increase resource effectivity
and efficiency across the entire value network in order to meet
sustainability requirements [17]. This change means that value
creation through collaboration in networks is becoming
increasingly important in order to compensate for and build up
missing competencies and exchange necessary information
[22].
846 Philipp Humbeck et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 844–849
Author name / Procedia CIRP 00 (2019) 000–000 3

3.2. Fundamentals of futurology
Futurology is defined as "the scientific examination of
possible, desirable and probable future developments and
design options as well as their prerequisites in the past and
present" [23]. The assumption of modern futurology is that, in
principle, the future cannot be clearly determined. Several
future developments are possible and can be shaped. The basis
of futurology is the perception that there are many possible
futures, but not an unlimited number. Modern futurology is
subject to all the quality criteria that science sets for strategies
and models. These include relevance, logical consistency,
simplicity, verifiability, terminological clarity, specification of
the scope, explication of the premises and boundary conditions,
transparency and practical manageability [24]. Systems,
companies and industries are increasingly networked and
4.1. Key factors of the scenario field and their future
projections
Figure 2 shows the result of the relevance and impact
analysis. Both axes are scaled by ranks. If a factor influences
many other factors, this factor is very active and has a high
rank. The passive sum can be neglected when selecting the 15
key factors. The circle diameters represent the result of the
relevance analysis. The larger the circle diameter, the more
important is the relevance of the factor influencing the design
field. The circles shown in green are the 15 key factors that
most actively influence the field of value creation in
mechanical engineering. The influencing factors shown in grey
are not key factors.
30
Depth of value creation

interact with each other under mutual dependencies. The Work 4.0 Environmental
awareness in the
number of direct and indirect factors that can influence the Labour market Cloud computing company

business of companies is increasing [2]. One of the most

Blockchain
Education and technology
research policy
important success factors for companies is the ability to 20
Lifecycle-
Management
Forms of
distribution Extent of
simulate possible future scenarios, to anticipate them and thus Competition situation Design of
cyber security

influence developments in the business environment and the the factory

Active total
Mechanical Engineering Demographic
vs. IT change

corporate world. This enables the company to recognize Revenue model

Market development
opportunities and risks proactively and gives it a decisive time Product
design Value
Organisational Climate change
and-growth
form of the value
advantage over its competitors [1,25].
and sustainability
proposition creation Overall global economic
10 development

3.3. Key trends in mechanical engineering Digital transformation

in the company Manufacturing process
Recycling
management and and new materials
use of resources

Apart from isolated scientific publications only three trend Innovation Production
Biological transformation

reports could be identified. The VDMA's "Trendradar" study capability location

AI and machine learning
0
shows 160 relevant trends of a technological and non- 0 10 Passive total 20 30

technological nature. These trends were determined in
cooperation with companies, VDMA experts and researchers
and offer a broad overview of a wide range of topics [26]. The
Fraunhofer "Foresight" study shows 51 relevant topics for
research in the year 2030, which were analyzed by Fraunhofer
experts and reviewed by international experts from science and
industry [27]. The annual report of the Future Today Institute
presents current technology trends. They analyzed 315
technology trends [28]. From these three reports and other
identified literature, trends were derived that are relevant to the
field of value creation. The trend analysis focused on the five
megatrends "Digital Transformation", "Globalization",
"Individualization", "Change in the Business World" and
"Climate Change and Sustainability", as these have a direct
impact on value creation. The selected trends were specified
and described with the help of additional statistics, studies,
publications and literature. The result of the trend analysis
serves as a basis for identifying influencing factors for value
creation.
4. Results
Section 4 presents the results of this study. Section 4.1
describes the key factors and their future projections. Section
4.2 then presents the future scenarios of value creation. In
section 4.3, possible options for action and implications for the
management of mechanical engineering companies are
explained in more detail in order to finally answer the
formulated research question.
Figure 2. Results from impact and relevance analysis
The 15 key factors form the basis for scenario building and
are explained in the following section. The respective future
projections are also mentioned:
Climate change and sustainability is determined by the
development of the global climate and describes the increase in
temperature compared to the pre-industrial period and
identifies the measures and causes of this development.
Climate targets clearly missed - Climate targets narrowly
missed - Climate targets exceeded.
Recycling management and use of resources describes the
efforts of industry to implement a cycle-oriented economy. The
goal of the closed-loop economy is to use products, materials
and resources longer, to minimize the utilization of resources,
and to avoid and recycle waste. Linear economy - Transition to
a circular economy - Circular economy.
Overall global economic development is determined by
trade policy and provides the framework in terms of the nature
and extent of government intervention to achieve economic
policy benefits. Global protectionism - Protectionist trains &
EU unit - Global open trade.
Market development and growth is determined by the
increase in economic output and describes the size of product
demand on the market. The unit of measurement here is the
percentage change of the gross domestic product. Emerging
countries dominate - Emerging & industrialized countries
equal - Industrial countries dominate.
Production location describes whether a company produces
centrally in its own country or decentralized in other countries.
 Philipp Humbeck et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 844–849 847
4 Author name / Procedia CIRP 00 (2020) 000–000

Decentralized production - Decentralized & centralized
production - Centralized production.
Innovative capacity is a decisive factor for the
competitiveness of a company and describes the process by
which companies generate innovations. Low - Consistent -
High.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning describe
the degree of implementation and proficiency of AI techniques
and applications in the company. Arrears - Fixed component.
Digital transformation in the company is determined by the
degree of digitalization and interconnectivity in the company.
Subordinate role of data - Data supported - Data driven.
Biological transformation determines the degree of
integration of biological principles in technical and
informational systems with the aim of a more sustainable
creation of value. No significance - Transfer of bioinspiration
- Integration of biology.
Competitive situation mechanical engineering vs. IT
determines the degree of integration of IT companies in
mechanical engineering and how strongly they influence the
competition with their solutions. IT companies dominate - Core
competencies clearly distributed - Mechanical engineering
dominates.
Organizational form of value creation specifies which
companies are involved in value creation and how they are
arranged and coordinated to provide added value for the
customer. Efficient supply chains - static value creation
networks - Adaptive ecosystems.
Factory design describes the progress of automatization and
how value creation processes in the factory function.
Digitalization - Connectivity - Autonomy.
Value proposition describes the value that a company offers
its customers with a service, a product or a combination of both.
Low customer orientation - Customer oriented product -
Customized solution.
Product design describes the product design, which product
characteristics are demanded by the customer on the market.
Good-enough - High-tech & good-enough - High-tech.
Revenue model indicates through which sources and in
which way a company generates its turnover. Product sale -
decentralized and close to the customer. In CO2-neutral,
autonomous factories where smart concepts such as logistics,
mobility and grid converge innovative products are
manufactured. Biology is integrated into the value chain and
enables efficient processes, technologies and products.
Companies cooperate in industrial eco-parks and achieve
economic advantages. As a result, entire ecosystems compete.
The ability to innovate has increased through interdisciplinary
cooperation across sectors. Through collaboration and
openness, value-creating ideas are implemented on the market.
AI is an integral part of business and production processes and
products. Decisions are based on data. IT companies have tried
to gain a foothold in the B2B market but failed, due to the lack
of domain-specific know-how. Differentiation takes place via
smart services, which helps to retain customers in the long
term. The service share of the generated turnover has increased,
a large part is generated by the sale of pay-per-result models.
Hardware supplier (2.02):
Mechanical engineers were downgraded to product or
hardware supplier by 2030+. Original high-tech locations, such
as Germany, are now one production location among many and
have not used their opportunities in the digital age. Despite
strong growth in emerging markets, the markets for commodity
and entry-level products are fiercely contested and the
innovative ability is low, due to the increasing isolation of the
companies and the worldwide protectionism of industrial
nations. Machines are often overengineered and do not solve
the specific customer problem. Penalties or boycotting of
products and services make market access more difficult. When
it comes to AI, manufacturers lack experience. The economic
potential of data-driven services and digitized business
processes cannot be fully exploited. Strategic decisions in
companies are made independently of findings from data
analyses. Digital business models have not been consistently
analyzed and implemented. IT companies seized the
opportunity and acquired industry-specific knowledge. They
offer smart services and process solutions on their platforms
and act directly at the customer interface.
Key factors Future projections

Pay-per-use - Pay-per-result.
Climate change
& sustainability
Recycling management &
use of resources
Overall global economic
4.2. Future scenarios of value creation development
Clim ate targets clearly Clim ate targets narrowly
Clim ate targets exceeded
m issed m issed
Transition to a circular
Linear economy Circular economy
economy
Protectionist trains & EU
Global protectionism

Em erging countries
unit
Em erging & industrialized
Global open trade

Industrial countries
Market development and growth dom inate countries equal dom inate
Decentralized &
Decentralized production Centralized production
The following sections provide summaries of the four
Production location centralized production

Innovative capacity Low Consistent High

scenarios. The software EIDOS has calculated 9,565,938 Artificial intelligence &
Arrears Fixed com ponent
possible scenarios based on the evaluated future projections. machine learning
Digital transformation in the
Subordinate role of data Data supported Data driven

From the 1000 most consistent scenarios, four different

company
Biological Transformation No significance Transfer of bioinspiration Integration of biology

scenarios were selected based on their characteristics (Fig. 3). Competitive situation
Mechanical Engineering vs. IT
IT com panies dominate
Core competencies clearly
distributed
Mechanical engineering
dom inates
The scenario with the highest consistency has a consistency Organizational form of value
creation
Efficient supply chains
Static value creation
networks
Adaptive ecosystems

value of 2.17. A high consistency is between the values 2 and Factory design Digitalisation Connectivity Autonomy

3. The respective consistency of the scenarios is indicated. Value proposition Low customer orientation
Customer oriented
product
Customized solution

Global innovation leader (2.17): Product design Good-enough High-tech & good-enough High-Tech

In 2030+, Mechanical engineers are global innovation Revenue model Product sale Pay-per-use Pay-per-result

leaders, future shapers and role models for many other Legend Global innovation leader Mechanical engineering dominates isolated

industries. New disruptive innovations in industry are created Differentiation through complementary partnerships Hardware supplier

collaboratively and ecological. Worldwide open trade has led

to global ecosystem-like value-added networks, whereby the Figure 3. Characteristics of the respective scenarios
recycling economy has been integrated. Production is
848 Philipp Humbeck et al. / Procedia CIRP 93 (2020) 844–849
Author name / Procedia CIRP 00 (2019) 000–000
Figure 4. Picture of the future of value creation in mechanical engineering (illustrated by Juliane Pilster)
Differentiation through complementary partnerships
(1.94): Value creation is digitalized, efficient and collaborative
until 2030+. It takes place in ecosystems, as skills from
different industries are needed to create added value for
customers. Through worldwide open trade, the transition from
linear to circular economy is in full swing. Production takes
place in efficient smart factories. Mechanical engineers are
aware that biology plays an important role in the creation of
value. They are increasingly inspired by it. The ability to
innovate has increased significantly through interdisciplinary
cooperation across sectors, so that new value-adding ideas can
be implemented on the market. AI is an integral part of
processes and products. Cyber-physical systems (CPS)
generate large amounts of data which are analyzed and
interpreted. IT companies provide ideal infrastructures for the
exploitation of data so that smart services and products can be
offered via their platforms. Manufacturers concentrate on their
core competencies and maintain the customer interface through
their customized scalable solutions. Differentiation takes place
through customer-specific development of smart process
solutions and services, which results in long-term customer
loyalty. The service share of total sales has increased and is
largely generated by offering availability (pay-per-use).
Mechanical engineering dominates isolated (1.89):
Due to the efficient and digitalized value creation and the
industry's own platform economy, the market position can be
maintained and the position at the international top can be
secured by 2030+. Depending on market requirements,
products are manufactured centrally or decentralized in static
value creation networks. Outside the EU, products and services
are boycotted in some places by protectionist policies. The
transition to a circular economy has been heralded. Incremental
innovations are generated through loose cooperation with
customers and users. AI is an integral part of processes and
products. CPS generate substantial amounts of data which are
analyzed and interpreted. Humans continue to make decisions,
which are enriched by information from data. IT companies
have tried to gain a foothold in the B2B market but have failed
due to the lack of domain-specific know-how. Customers can
thus be retained in the long term. There is a balanced demand
on the market for high-tech products - industrial countries - and
good-enough products - emerging markets. Sales are generated
by billing the use of the product or system (pay-per-use).
5
4.3. Options for action for mechanical engineering companies
From the statements and results of the ten expert workshops,
the team of three researchers was able to derive four concrete
options for action that can be specifically addressed by the
mechanical engineers within the scope of their value creation.
With the help of these adjustment levers, they can consciously
transform towards one of the scenarios or take steps to move in
a different direction. These four derived options for action are
explained in more detail in the following section.
Ecological awareness:
Mechanical engineers could become independent of both
regulations and volatile raw material prices and thus produce
ecologically neutral products. The foundation for this is the
creation of an ecological awareness. As a result, measures can
be taken to save resources and minimize waste. A first step is
the analysis of the CO2 emissions of individual companies.
Based on these values, plans can be made to reduce energy
consumption, increase energy efficiency and thus reduce CO 2
emissions. In the course of the current debate on a possible CO2
tax, reducing CO2 emissions would contribute to
environmental protection and save costs. Furthermore,
products need "new ecological functions" such as recyclability
or the consideration of energy efficiency, which are important
influencing factors, especially in research and development.
Initial pilot projects can be used to test whether economic
added value can be achieved through recycling management
principles. This makes it possible to develop inexpensive,
green products that are competitive. Partnerships and
collaboration are a prerequisite for the implementation of
ecological goals.
Product-Service-Design: By means of an intelligent
product-service design, mechanical engineers can further
expand customer loyalty and secure a competitive advantage
by offering services. It is important to observe the development
of pay-per-x models on the market and prepare suitable
business models for them. In order to implement this, modular
product concepts with intelligently adaptable functions as well
as the measurability of final quality and degree of fulfillment
are required. Mechanical engineers can introduce these models
as soon as external conditions – such as the public
infrastructure – make this possible and customers as well as
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6 Author name / Procedia CIRP 00 (2020) 000–000
stakeholders are willing to use such offerings. In addition,
further requirements and clear strategic steps must be derived
for the expansion of a fully autonomous factory.
Inter- and intraorganizational Transformation: In the
future, innovations will more often be generated across
industries in value creation networks or flexible ecosystems.
For this reason, the development of strategic partnerships is
essential for the company in the mechanical engineering sector.
Existing relationships with business partners can be
strengthened and intensified at all levels. The promotion of
intra-company cooperation must be further intensified, and
employees must be prepared for the change towards an
ecosystem approach. A further step establishes cross-industry
partnerships in order to gain access to the skills and resources
needed to create future value.
New competencies and core competencies: New value-
adding competencies can be developed by mechanical
engineers, especially in the areas of networking, IT, software
and data analysis. This requires knowledge about data
handling. The role of data engineers is becoming increasingly
important for value creation. The company's competencies are
shifting from hardware production to software focus. The
company is thus adapting the value-added structure of a
software company to a large extent. Therefore, it is necessary
to find a balance between previous core competencies in a high-
tech context and newly required competencies of IT and
software. Through these measures, mechanical engineers can
combine machines with complementary software to form
integrated solution bundles and thus offer customers new value
propositions. Mechanical engineering companies also need
these new competencies for the implementation of digital
business models.
5. Discussion
The content of the scenarios is partly influenced by global
factors that cannot be manipulated by companies themselves
and is therefore has restrictions. The developments are very
dynamic and characterized by many uncertainties. This makes
a reliable forecast of the most likely developments difficult. A
disadvantage of the scenario technique can be the subjective
assessment of the people involved and the information
provided. In this case, three comprehensive trend analyses,
which were additionally enriched with further information
were used. The reliability of the results depends on the
professional qualifications, the ability to think holistically and
the creativity of the people involved. However, it is clearly
stated how complex and versatile future value creation can be.
The recording of comprehensible future scenarios of value
creation offers added value to companies in the mechanical
engineering industry. The scenarios and options for action
identified can provide the basis for formulating long-term
strategies and implementing a roadmap into the future, thereby
mitigating possible future effects for the company. This can
provide a competitive advantage. The scenarios are influenced
by emerging trends; thus, it is important to check the scenarios
and future projections for changes at regular intervals.
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