S&P 500 Valuation

S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Estimator

Inputs
Enter current level of index 4766.18 Input cell
Growth and Discount Rate Inputs Output cell.
Enter current long term risk free rate = 1.51% Equity Risk Premium Choices
Do you want to change the risk free rate after year 5 Yes Average implied ERP (last dec ERP10 5.35%
If yes, riskfree rate after year 5 2.50% Direct Input ERPDirect 5.00% Change this to any ERP you want
Do you want the change to be gradual or sudden (in year 6)? Gradual (over 5 years) Historical High ERP (1960-CurERPHigh 6.45%
Average implied ERP (1960-CuERPLong 4.21%
If you want to compute an intrinsic value for index, what ERP woul ERPDirect Historical Low ERP (1960-CurrHL 2.05%
ERP used to compute fair value of index (you can override this nu 5.00% Do not input Historical Equity risk premiumHUS 5.13%
Expected growth rate in the long term (after year 5) = 2.50% Do not input
Return on Equity = 16.10%
Earnings Forecasts
Earnings in 2021 (Most recent year.. Will not affect your valuation) 206.38
Earnings in 2022 223.34
Earnings in 2023 244.94
How much will cash flows be as a percent of earnings in 2022? 77.36%
Do you want to adjust these earnings estimates to reflect your view No
If so, enter the percentage difference (negative to lower, positive to -10.00%

Intrinsic Value Estimate (based on your choice of ERP)

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Terminal Year
Expected Earnings $206.38 223.34 244.94 262.77 275.62 282.52 289.58
Expected Earnings Growth Rate 8.22% 9.67% 7.28% 4.89% 2.50% 2.50%
Expected cash payout (dividends + buybacks) as % of earnings 77.36% 77.36% 79.14% 80.92% 82.69% 84.47% 84.47%
Expected Dividends + Buybacks = $159.66 $172.78 $193.84 $212.63 $227.93 $238.65 244.61
Expected Terminal Value = $4,892.25
Riskfree Rate 1.51% 1.71% 1.91% 2.10% 2.30% 2.50% 2.50%
Required Return on Stocks 6.51% 6.71% 6.91% 7.10% 7.30% 7.50% 7.50%
Present Value = $ 161.91 $ 169.92 $ 174.03 $ 173.85 $3,640.60
Intrinsic Value of Index = 4320.31
Intrinsic Trailing PE = 20.93
Intrinsic Forward PE = 19.34
Intrinsic CAPE (based on inflation-adjusted ten year average earnin 36.65
Actual Index level = 4766.18
% Under or Over Valuation = 10.32%

Page 1
S&P 500 Valuation

Page 2
 Earnings and Growth

Top Down Estimates (Yardeni on 12/14/20) Bottom-up Estimates (Analyst Con

Year Earnings on Index Source Year
2019 163 Yardeni 2019
2020 -14.11% 140 Yardeni 2020
2021 21.43% 170 Yardeni 2021
2022 14.71% 195 2022
2023 7.82% 2023
2024 0.93% 2024
Compounded average 5.42% Compounded avera

Sources for top down estimates

Thomson Reuters
Factset
Yardeni
S&P Capital IQ Used estimated Net Income aggregated across
individual companies for next two years

Page 3
Earnings and Growth

Page 4
 Earnings and Growth

Bottom-up Estimates (Analyst Consensus on 12/14/20) Bottom up Estimates (Thomson Reute

Earnings on Index Source Year
162.97 Analyst Consensus 2019
-15.25% 138.12 Analyst Consensus 2020
22.49% 169.18 Analyst Consensus 2021
16.56% 197.2 Analyst Consensus 2022
8.75% 2023
0.93% 2024
5.84% Compounded av

On 6/1/20
Market Strategists Estimates
Firm Strategist 2020 S&P Targe
Bank of America Merrill Savita Subramanian 2600
Barclays Maneesh Deshpande 2500
BMO Brian Belski Suspended
BTIG Julian Emanuel 3000
Canaccord Genuity Tony Dwyer 3000
CFRA Sam Stovall 3435
Citigroup Tobias Levkovich 2700
Credit Suisse Jonathan Golub 2700
Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha 3250
Goldman Sachs David Kostin 3000
JPMorgan Chase Dubravko Lakos-Bujas 3400
Mike Wilson 3000
Oppenheimer John Stoltzfus Suspended
RBC Lori Calvasina 2750
UBS Francois Trahan 2850
Wells Fargo Investment InsDarrell Cronk 2760
Average
Median
High
Low

Page 5
Earnings and Growth

Page 6
 Earnings and Growth

ttom up Estimates (Thomson Reuters on 12/31/2020) Bottom up Estimates for Net Income (S&P)
Earnings Growth Earnings Source Earnings GrEarnings Source
162.93 Thomson-Reuters 1418.75
-16.74% 135.66 Thomson-Reuters 6.39% 1509.37 S&P Cap IQ
23.29% 167.25 Thomson-Reuters 8.45% 1636.96 S&P Cap IQ
16.68% 195.14 5.86% S&P Cap IQ
8.80% 3.26%
0.93% 0.66%
5.63% 4.89%

2020 EPS Estimate Implied P/E

$115.00 22.61
$119.00 21.01
Suspended Suspended
$127.00 23.62
$128.00 23.44
$162.37 21.16
$125.00 21.6
$125.00 21.6
$133.00 24.44
$110.00 27.27
$150.00 22.67
$130.00 23.08
Suspended Suspended
$135.00 19.78
$140.00 20.36
$115.00 24
$129.60
$127.50
$162.37
$110.00

Page 7
Earnings and Growth

Page 8
Earnings and Growth

Page 9
Earnings and Growth

Page 10
 Buyback & Dividend computation

Gross Cash
Year Dividend YieldBuybacks/Index Yield Payout Return on Equity
Net Profit MarginColumn1
2001 1.37% 1.25% 2.62% 77.43% 11.92% 5.27%
2002 1.81% 1.58% 3.39% 64.78% 13.61% 6.82%
2003 1.61% 1.23% 2.84% 57.74% 16.79% 7.69%
2004 1.57% 1.78% 3.35% 59.99% 18.43% 8.59%
2005 1.79% 3.11% 4.90% 80.01% 18.43% 8.74%
2006 1.77% 3.39% 5.16% 83.40% 19.36% 9.21%
2007 1.92% 4.58% 6.49% 115.53% 16.36% 8.05%
2008 3.15% 4.33% 7.47% 136.37% 9.35% 4.75%
2009 1.97% 1.39% 3.36% 65.82% 12.60% 6.26%
2010 1.80% 2.61% 4.42% 66.28% 16.31% 8.70%
2011 2.11% 3.56% 5.67% 73.91% 16.65% 9.16%
2012 2.19% 3.13% 5.32% 78.39% 15.79% 8.86%
2013 1.89% 2.88% 4.77% 84.00% 15.73% 9.39%
2014 1.92% 3.03% 4.95% 87.79% 16.23% 9.99%
2015 2.12% 3.18% 5.30% 107.83% 13.82% 8.91%
2016 2.04% 2.78% 4.82% 101.66% 14.35% 9.23%
2017 1.83% 2.28% 4.11% 88.17% 16.19% 10.11%
2018 2.17% 3.83% 6.00% 98.51% 18.48% 11.52%
2019 1.81% 2.72% 4.53% 93.08% 18.46% 11.29%
Average: Last 10 years = 4.99% 87.96% 16.20% 9.72%
Average: Last 5 years 4.95% 97.85% 16.26% 10.21%

Index at the start of the current quarter = 3756.07 Base for normalized Cashflow

Market value of Stock Cash to Net Cash to

Year index Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances equity Equity
2001 1148.09 38.85 15.74 14.34 30.08
2002 879.82 46.04 15.96 13.87 29.83
2003 1111.91 54.69 17.88 13.70 31.58
2004 1211.92 67.68 19.01 21.59 40.60
2005 1248.29 76.45 22.34 38.82 61.17
2006 1418.30 87.72 25.04 48.12 73.16
2007 1468.36 82.54 28.14 67.22 95.36
2008 903.25 49.51 28.45 39.07 67.52
2009 1115.00 56.86 21.97 15.46 37.43
2010 1257.64 83.77 22.65 32.88 55.53
2011 1257.60 96.44 26.53 44.75 71.28
2012 1426.19 96.82 31.25 44.65 75.90
2013 1848.36 104.92 34.90 53.23 88.13
2014 2058.90 116.16 39.55 62.44 9.58 101.98 92.40

Page 11
 Buyback & Dividend computation

2015 2043.94 100.48 43.41 64.94 9.43 108.35 98.92

2016 2238.82 106.26 45.70 62.32 12.50 108.02 98.66
2017 2673.61 124.51 48.93 60.85 9.41 109.78 100.62
2018 2506.85 152.78 54.39 96.11 8.81 150.50 141.69
2019 3230.78 157.18 58.50 87.81 8.81 146.31 137.50
Trailing four quar 3756.07 123.35 58.89 68.89 12.50 127.78 115.28
S&P Cap IQ update 101.95 49.52 63.06 12.50 112.59 100.08
Market Cap Index level Unit adjuster Dividends Buybacks
2019 26760 3230 0.12070254 485.48 728.74
2018 21033 2506.85 0.11918652 456.31 806.41
2017 22821 2673.61 0.11715569 419.77 519.4
2016 19268 2238.82 0.11619369 397.21 536.38
2015 17956 2043.94 0.11383047 382.46 572.16
2014 18245 2058.9 0.11284736 350.43 553.27
2013 16495 1848.36 0.11205577 311.77 475.59
2012 12742 1426.19 0.11192827 280.69 398.91
2011 11385 1257.6 0.11046113 240.20 405.08
2010 11430 1257.64 0.11002975 205.83 298.82
2009 9928 1115.00 0.11230862 195.61 137.65
2008 7852 903.25 0.11503439 247.29 339.64
2007 12868 1468.36 0.11410942 246.59 589.12
2006 12729 1418.30 0.11142274
Ratio
Index units adjuster =
0.1207025411061

Computing the trailing 12 month number (S&P Data updated every quarter on March 15, June 15, Sept 15 and Dec 15)
Quarter Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances
Last quarter 314.81 115.54 101.79 Updated January 1, 2021
2 quarters ago 221.12 119.04 88.66
3 quarters ago 161.64 126.98 198.72
4 quarters ago 324.35 126.35 181.58
Sum 1021.92 487.91 570.75 112.818

S&P Capital IQ data (updated every month and does not match up to the S&P update every three quarters)
Month Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances Index Units Adjuster
1/1/21 919.8081 446.778 568.97 112.818 0.110839597 Updated January 1, 2021

Page 12
 Buyback & Dividend computation

Column2

Table will be updated once the year's

final numbers are in. For 2021, for
instance, it will be in March 2021

Updated at the start of every quarterLast updated 1-Jan-21

Book Value Inflation

Dividend Buyback Gross Cash Net Cash of Equity at Return on Sales per Inflation adjusted
yield yield Yield Yield start of year Equity share rate Earnings
1.37% 1.25% 2.62% 325.8 11.92% 736.88 1.60% 55.48
1.81% 1.58% 3.39% 338.37 13.61% 674.59 2.48% 64.15
1.61% 1.23% 2.84% 325.72 16.79% 710.81 2.04% 74.69
1.57% 1.78% 3.35% 367.17 18.43% 788.17 3.34% 89.44
1.79% 3.11% 4.90% 414.75 18.43% 874.32 3.34% 97.76
1.77% 3.39% 5.16% 453.06 19.36% 952.51 2.52% 109.41
1.92% 4.58% 6.49% 504.39 16.36% 1025.08 4.11% 98.89
3.15% 4.33% 7.47% 529.59 9.35% 1042.46 -0.02% 59.33
1.97% 1.39% 3.36% 451.37 12.60% 908.4 2.81% 66.27
1.80% 2.61% 4.42% 513.58 16.31% 962.71 1.44% 96.25
2.11% 3.56% 5.67% 579.14 16.65% 1052.83 3.06% 107.52
2.19% 3.13% 5.32% 613.14 15.79% 1092.37 1.78% 106.05
1.89% 2.88% 4.77% 666.97 15.73% 1116.81 1.55% 113.18
1.92% 3.03% 4.95% 4.49% 715.84 16.23% 1163.32 0.69% 124.45

Page 13
 Buyback & Dividend computation

2.12% 3.18% 5.30% 4.84% 726.96 13.82% 1127.13 0.67% 106.93

2.04% 2.78% 4.82% 4.41% 740.29 14.35% 1150.68 2.09% 110.77
1.83% 2.28% 4.11% 3.76% 768.99 16.19% 1231.57 2.09% 127.14
2.17% 3.83% 6.00% 5.65% 826.52 18.48% 1325.89 2.11% 152.78
1.81% 2.72% 4.53% 4.26% 851.62 18.46% 1392.48
1.57% 1.83% 3.40% 3.07% 851.62 14.48% 1325.89 2.11% 123.35
Updated at the start of every m

t 15 and Dec 15)

ted January 1, 2021

Page 14
 Buyback & Dividend computation

Updated at the start of every quarterLast updated 1-Jan-20

Updated at the start of every month Last updated 1-Jan-20

Page 15
 Implied ERP- Annual since 1960

Year Earnings YieldDividend Yield T.Bond Rate Implied ERP

1960 5.34% 3.41% 2.76%
1961 4.71% 2.85% 2.35% 2.92%
1962 5.81% 3.40% 3.85% 3.56%
1963 5.51% 3.13% 4.14% 3.38%
1964 5.62% 3.05% 4.21% 3.31%
1965 5.73% 3.06% 4.65% 3.32%
1966 6.74% 3.59% 4.64% 3.68%
1967 5.66% 3.09% 5.70% 3.20%
1968 5.51% 2.93% 6.16% 3.00%
1969 6.63% 3.52% 7.88% 3.74%
1970 5.98% 3.46% 6.50% 3.41%
1971 5.46% 3.10% 5.89% 3.09%
1972 5.23% 2.70% 6.41% 2.72%
1973 8.16% 3.70% 6.90% 4.30%
1974 13.64% 5.43% 7.40% 5.59%
1975 8.55% 4.14% 7.76% 4.13%
1976 9.07% 3.93% 6.81% 4.55%
1977 11.43% 5.11% 7.78% 5.92%
1978 12.11% 5.39% 9.15% 5.72%
1979 13.48% 5.53% 10.33% 6.45%
1980 11.04% 4.74% 12.43% 5.03%
1981 12.39% 5.57% 13.98% 5.73%
1982 9.83% 4.93% 10.47% 4.90%
1983 8.06% 4.32% 11.80% 4.31%
1984 10.07% 4.68% 11.51% 5.11%
1985 7.42% 3.88% 8.99% 3.84%
1986 5.96% 3.38% 7.22% 3.58%
1987 6.49% 3.71% 8.86% 3.99%
1988 8.20% 3.68% 9.14% 3.77%
1989 6.80% 3.32% 7.93% 3.51%
1990 6.58% 3.74% 8.07% 3.89%
1991 4.58% 3.11% 6.70% 3.48%
1992 4.16% 2.90% 6.68% 3.55%
1993 4.25% 2.72% 5.79% 3.17%
1994 5.89% 2.91% 7.82% 3.55%
1995 5.74% 2.30% 5.57% 3.29%
1996 4.83% 2.01% 6.41% 3.20%
1997 4.08% 1.60% 5.74% 2.73%
1998 3.11% 1.32% 4.65% 2.26%
1999 3.07% 1.14% 6.44% 2.05%
2000 3.94% 1.23% 5.11% 2.87%
2001 3.85% 1.37% 5.05% 3.62%
2002 5.23% 1.83% 3.81% 4.10%
2003 4.87% 1.61% 4.25% 3.69%
2004 5.58% 1.60% 4.22% 3.65%

Page 16
 Implied ERP- Annual since 1960

2005 5.47% 1.79% 4.39% 4.08%

2006 6.18% 1.77% 4.70% 4.16%
2007 5.62% 1.89% 4.02% 4.37%
2008 7.24% 3.11% 2.21% 6.43%
2009 5.35% 2.00% 3.84% 4.36%
2010 6.65% 1.84% 3.29% 5.20%
2011 7.72% 2.07% 1.88% 6.01%
2012 7.18% 2.13% 1.76% 5.78%
2013 5.81% 1.96% 3.04% 4.96%
2014 5.49% 1.92% 2.17% 5.78%
2015 5.20% 2.11% 2.27% 6.12%
2016 4.86% 2.01% 2.45% 5.69%
2017 4.42% 1.80% 2.41% 5.08%
2018 5.92% 2.08% 2.68% 5.96%
2019 5.03% 1.82% 1.92% 5.20%
2020 3.68% 1.51% 0.93% 4.72%
2021 4.33% 1.24% 1.51% 4.24%

Page 17
 Historical ERP

S&P
Year500 (includes 3-month
dividends)T.Bill
US T. Bond
Baa Corporate
S&P 500 (includes
Bond 3-month
dividends)3
T.Bill4
US T. Bond5
Baa Corporate Bond6
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49% $ 143.81 $ 103.08 $ 100.84
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% -2.06% $ 131.88 $ 106.34 $ 105.07
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% -4.30% $ 98.75 $ 111.18 $ 109.85
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% -8.15% $ 55.46 $ 113.74 $ 107.03
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% -10.47% $ 50.66 $ 114.96 $ 116.44
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% -3.81% $ 75.99 $ 116.06 $ 118.60
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% 2.91% $ 75.09 $ 116.39 $ 128.05
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% 9.77% $ 110.18 $ 116.58 $ 133.78
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% 3.22% $ 145.38 $ 116.78 $ 140.49
1937 -35.34% 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% 2.56% $ 94.00 $ 117.11 $ 142.43
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% -0.87% $ 121.53 $ 117.18 $ 148.43
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30% $ 120.20 $ 117.24 $ 154.98
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% 3.31% $ 107.37 $ 117.28 $ 163.35
1941 -12.77% 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% -8.38% $ 93.66 $ 117.43 $ 160.04
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% 3.33% $ 111.61 $ 117.83 $ 163.72
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 8.04% 11.45% $ 139.59 $ 118.28 $ 167.79
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 6.57% 16.58% $ 166.15 $ 118.73 $ 172.12
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 6.80% 11.78% $ 225.67 $ 119.18 $ 178.67
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 2.51% 24.10% $ 206.65 $ 119.63 $ 184.26
1947 5.20% 0.60% 0.92% 0.26% 21.26% $ 217.39 $ 120.35 $ 185.95
1948 5.70% 1.05% 1.95% 3.44% 2.06% $ 229.79 $ 121.61 $ 189.58
1949 18.30% 1.12% 4.66% 5.38% 0.09% $ 271.85 $ 122.96 $ 198.42
1950 30.81% 1.20% 0.43% 4.24% 3.64% $ 355.60 $ 124.44 $ 199.27
1951 23.68% 1.52% -0.30% -0.19% 6.05% $ 439.80 $ 126.33 $ 198.68
1952 18.15% 1.72% 2.27% 4.44% 4.41% $ 519.62 $ 128.51 $ 203.19
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% 1.62% 11.52% $ 513.35 $ 130.94 $ 211.61
1954 52.56% 0.94% 3.29% 6.16% 0.92% $ 783.18 $ 132.17 $ 218.57
1955 32.60% 1.73% -1.34% 2.04% 0.00% ### $ 134.45 $ 215.65
1956 7.44% 2.63% -2.26% -2.35% 0.91% ### $ 137.98 $ 210.79
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% -0.72% 2.72% $ 999.05 $ 142.43 $ 225.11
1958 43.72% 1.77% -2.10% 6.43% 0.66% ### $ 144.95 $ 220.39
1959 12.06% 3.39% -2.65% 1.57% 0.11% ### $ 149.86 $ 214.56
1960 0.34% 2.88% 11.64% 6.66% 0.77% ### $ 154.18 $ 239.53
1961 26.64% 2.35% 2.06% 5.10% 0.98% ### $ 157.81 $ 244.46
1962 -8.81% 2.77% 5.69% 6.50% 0.32% ### $ 162.19 $ 258.38
1963 22.61% 3.16% 1.68% 5.46% 2.14% ### $ 167.31 $ 262.74
1964 16.42% 3.55% 3.73% 5.16% 1.26% ### $ 173.25 $ 272.53
1965 12.40% 3.95% 0.72% 3.19% 1.66% ### $ 180.09 $ 274.49
1966 -9.97% 4.86% 2.91% -3.45% 1.22% ### $ 188.84 $ 282.47

Page 18
 Historical ERP

1967 23.80% 4.31% -1.58% 0.90% 2.32% ### $ 196.98 $ 278.01

1968 10.81% 5.34% 3.27% 4.85% 4.13% ### $ 207.49 $ 287.11
1969 -8.24% 6.67% -5.01% -2.03% 6.99% ### $ 221.32 $ 272.71
1970 3.56% 6.39% 16.75% 5.65% 8.22% ### $ 235.47 $ 318.41
1971 14.22% 4.33% 9.79% 14.00% 4.24% ### $ 245.67 $ 349.57
1972 18.76% 4.07% 2.82% 11.41% 2.98% ### $ 255.68 $ 359.42
1973 -14.31% 7.03% 3.66% 4.32% 3.42% ### $ 273.66 $ 372.57
1974 -25.90% 7.83% 1.99% -4.38% 10.07% ### $ 295.08 $ 379.98
1975 37.00% 5.78% 3.61% 11.05% 6.77% ### $ 312.12 $ 393.68
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% 19.75% 8.18% ### $ 327.65 $ 456.61
1977 -6.98% 5.27% 1.29% 9.95% 14.65% ### $ 344.91 $ 462.50
1978 6.51% 7.19% -0.78% 3.14% 15.72% ### $ 369.71 $ 458.90
1979 18.52% 10.07% 0.67% -2.01% 13.74% ### $ 406.93 $ 461.98
1980 31.74% 11.43% -2.99% -3.32% 7.40% ### $ 453.46 $ 448.17
1981 -4.70% 14.03% 8.20% 8.46% 5.10% ### $ 517.06 $ 484.91
1982 20.42% 10.61% 32.81% 29.05% 0.56% ### $ 571.94 $ 644.04
1983 22.34% 8.61% 3.20% 16.19% 4.75% ### $ 621.19 $ 664.65
1984 6.15% 9.52% 13.73% 15.62% 4.68% ### $ 680.35 $ 755.92
1985 31.24% 7.48% 25.71% 23.86% 7.47% ### $ 731.23 $ 950.29
1986 18.49% 5.98% 24.28% 21.49% 9.61% ### $ 774.95 ###
1987 5.81% 5.78% -4.96% 2.29% 7.88% ### $ 819.70 ###
1988 16.54% 6.67% 8.22% 15.12% 7.21% ### $ 874.35 ###
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% 15.79% 4.38% ### $ 945.28 ###
1990 -3.06% 7.49% 6.24% 6.14% -0.69% ### ### ###
1991 30.23% 5.38% 15.00% 17.85% -0.16% ### ### ###
1992 7.49% 3.43% 9.36% 12.17% 0.82% ### ### ###
1993 9.97% 3.00% 14.21% 16.43% 2.16% ### ### ###
1994 1.33% 4.25% -8.04% -1.32% 2.51% ### ### ###
1995 37.20% 5.49% 23.48% 20.16% 1.80% ### ### ###
1996 22.68% 5.01% 1.43% 4.79% 2.42% ### ### ###
1997 33.10% 5.06% 9.94% 11.83% 4.02% ### ### ###
1998 28.34% 4.78% 14.92% 7.95% 6.45% ### ### ###
1999 20.89% 4.64% -8.25% 0.84% 7.68% ### ### ###
2000 -9.03% 5.82% 16.66% 9.33% 9.28% ### ### ###
2001 -11.85% 3.39% 5.57% 7.82% 6.67% ### ### ###
2002 -21.97% 1.60% 15.12% 12.18% 9.56% ### ### ###
2003 28.36% 1.01% 0.38% 13.53% 9.82% ### ### ###
2004 10.74% 1.37% 4.49% 9.89% 13.64% ### ### ###
2005 4.83% 3.15% 2.87% 4.92% 13.51% ### ### ###
2006 15.61% 4.73% 1.96% 7.05% 1.73% ### ### ###

Page 19
 Historical ERP

2007 5.48% 4.35% 10.21% 3.15% -5.40% ### ### ###

2008 -36.55% 1.37% 20.10% -5.07% -12.00% ### ### ###
2009 25.94% 0.15% -11.12% 23.33% -3.85% ### ### ###
2010 14.82% 0.14% 8.46% 8.35% -4.12% ### ### ###
2011 2.10% 0.05% 16.04% 12.58% -3.88% ### ### ###
2012 15.89% 0.09% 2.97% 10.12% 6.44% ### ### ###
2013 32.15% 0.06% -9.10% -1.06% 10.72% ### ### ###
2014 13.52% 0.03% 10.75% 10.38% 4.51% ### ### ###
2015 1.38% 0.05% 1.28% -0.70% 5.21% ### ### ###
2016 11.77% 0.32% 0.69% 10.37% 5.31% ### ### ###
2017 21.61% 0.93% 2.80% 9.72% 6.21% ### ### ###
2018 -4.23% 1.94% -0.02% -2.76% 4.53% ### ### ###
2019 31.21% 1.55% 9.64% 15.33% 3.69% ### ### ###
2020 18.02% 0.09% 11.33% 10.41% 10.35% ### ### ###
2021 28.47% 0.06% -4.42% 0.93% 16.83% ### ### ###

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 Historical ERP

Stocks - BillsStocks - Bon Stocks - Baa Historical risk premium

$ 103.22 $ 101.49 40.73% 42.98% 40.59%
$ 106.33 $ 99.40 -11.46% -12.50% -11.32%
$ 106.91 $ 95.13 -29.67% -29.66% -25.66%
$ 90.14 $ 87.38 -46.15% -41.28% -28.16%
$ 111.41 $ 78.23 -9.71% -17.43% -32.23%
$ 125.86 $ 75.25 49.02% 48.13% 37.02%
$ 149.54 $ 77.44 -1.47% -9.15% -20.00%
$ 169.44 $ 85.00 46.57% 42.27% 33.43%
$ 188.73 $ 87.73 31.77% 26.93% 20.56%
$ 180.39 $ 89.98 -35.61% -36.72% -30.92%
$ 197.05 $ 89.20 29.22% 25.07% 20.05%
$ 212.78 $ 88.04 -1.14% -5.51% -9.08%
$ 231.18 $ 90.95 -10.71% -16.08% -19.32%
$ 242.76 $ 83.32 -12.90% -10.75% -17.78%
$ 255.33 $ 86.10 18.83% 16.88% 13.99%
$ 275.88 $ 95.95 24.68% 22.57% 17.02%
$ 293.99 $ 111.87 18.65% 16.45% 12.46%
$ 313.98 $ 125.04 35.44% 32.02% 29.02%
$ 321.85 $ 155.18 -8.81% -11.56% -10.94%
$ 322.70 $ 188.17 4.60% 4.28% 4.94%
$ 333.79 $ 192.05 4.66% 3.75% 2.27%
$ 351.74 $ 192.22 17.19% 13.64% 12.93%
$ 366.65 $ 199.22 29.60% 30.38% 26.57%
$ 365.95 $ 211.26 22.16% 23.97% 23.87%
$ 382.20 $ 220.57 16.43% 15.88% 13.71%
$ 388.39 $ 245.98 -3.10% -5.35% -2.83%
$ 412.31 $ 248.25 51.62% 49.27% 46.41%
$ 420.74 $ 248.25 30.87% 33.93% 30.55%
$ 410.84 $ 250.52 4.81% 9.70% 9.79%
$ 407.89 $ 257.33 -13.68% -17.25% -9.74%
$ 434.11 $ 259.03 41.95% 45.82% 37.29%
$ 440.95 $ 259.31 8.67% 14.70% 10.48%
$ 470.33 $ 261.30 -2.55% -11.30% -6.33% 6.11%
$ 494.32 $ 263.85 24.28% 24.58% 21.54% 6.62%
$ 526.43 $ 264.70 -11.58% -14.51% -15.31% 5.97%
$ 555.19 $ 270.38 19.45% 20.93% 17.15% 6.36%
$ 583.85 $ 273.78 12.87% 12.69% 11.25% 6.53%
$ 602.47 $ 278.32 8.45% 11.68% 9.21% 6.66%
$ 581.72 $ 281.72 -14.83% -12.88% -6.53% 6.11%

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 Historical ERP

$ 586.92 $ 288.25 19.50% 25.38% 22.91% 6.57%

$ 615.36 $ 300.17 5.48% 7.54% 5.97% 6.60%
$ 602.90 $ 321.16 -14.91% -3.23% -6.22% 6.33%
$ 636.96 $ 347.55 -2.83% -13.19% -2.09% 5.90%
$ 726.14 $ 362.30 9.89% 4.43% 0.22% 5.87%
$ 808.99 $ 373.08 14.68% 15.94% 7.35% 6.08%
$ 843.92 $ 385.85 -21.34% -17.97% -18.63% 5.50%
$ 806.95 $ 424.72 -33.73% -27.89% -21.52% 4.64%
$ 896.12 $ 453.48 31.22% 33.39% 25.95% 5.17%
### $ 490.57 18.86% 7.85% 4.08% 5.22%
### $ 562.46 -12.25% -8.27% -16.93% 4.93%
### $ 650.90 -0.68% 7.29% 3.37% 4.97%
### $ 740.35 8.45% 17.85% 20.53% 5.21%
### $ 795.11 20.30% 34.72% 35.05% 5.73%
### $ 835.62 -18.73% -12.90% -13.16% 5.37%
### $ 840.33 9.80% -12.40% -8.63% 5.10%
### $ 880.25 13.73% 19.14% 6.14% 5.34%
### $ 921.43 -3.38% -7.59% -9.47% 5.12%
### $ 990.27 23.76% 5.52% 7.37% 5.13%
### ### 12.52% -5.79% -2.99% 4.97%
### ### 0.04% 10.77% 3.52% 5.07%
### ### 9.87% 8.31% 1.42% 5.12%
### ### 23.36% 13.78% 15.69% 5.24%
### ### -10.56% -9.30% -9.20% 5.00%
### ### 24.86% 15.23% 12.38% 5.14%
### ### 4.06% -1.87% -4.68% 5.03%
### ### 6.97% -4.24% -6.46% 4.90%
### ### -2.92% 9.36% 2.65% 4.97%
### ### 31.71% 13.71% 17.04% 5.08%
### ### 17.68% 21.25% 17.89% 5.30%
### ### 28.04% 23.16% 21.27% 5.53%
### ### 23.56% 13.42% 20.39% 5.63%
### ### 16.25% 29.14% 20.04% 5.96%
### ### -14.85% -25.69% -18.36% 5.51%
### ### -15.24% -17.42% -19.67% 5.17%
### ### -23.57% -37.08% -34.14% 4.53%
### ### 27.34% 27.98% 14.82% 4.82%
### ### 9.37% 6.25% 0.85% 4.84%
### ### 1.69% 1.97% -0.08% 4.80%
### ### 10.89% 13.65% 8.56% 4.91%

Page 22
 Historical ERP

### ### 1.13% -4.73% 2.33% 4.79%

### ### -37.92% -56.65% -31.49% 3.88%
### ### 25.79% 37.05% 2.61% 4.29%
### ### 14.68% 6.36% 6.47% 4.31%
### ### 2.05% -13.94% -10.49% 4.10%
### ### 15.80% 12.92% 5.77% 4.20%
### ### 32.09% 41.25% 33.20% 4.62%
### ### 13.49% 2.78% 3.14% 4.60%
### ### 1.33% 0.09% 2.08% 4.54%
### ### 11.46% 11.08% 1.41% 4.62%
### ### 20.67% 18.80% 11.88% 4.77%
### ### -6.17% -4.21% -1.46% 4.66%
### ### 29.66% 21.58% 15.88% 4.83%
### ### 17.93% 6.69% 7.61% 4.84%
### ### 28.41% 32.88% 27.54% 5.13%

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 Input Choices

Yes/No Change in Riskfree Rate

Yes Immediate (starting now)
No Gradual (over 5 years)
End (at the end of 5 years)

Page 24