For a long time, Tunisia was considered a role model

for democratic transformation in the Arab world.

Now the country is voting on a draft constitution that
could pave the way to a dictatorial regime. This
Monday, Tunisian President Kais Saied has called on
the Tunisians to vote on a new constitution in a
referendum. The founding day of the Tunisian
republic will also mark one of the most memorable
events in recent Tunisian history: a year ago, Saied
suspended parliament and summarily dismissed the
prime minister and his government. In the months
that followed, the Tunisian President, who now ruled
alone by decree, not only gradually dissolved the
separation of powers. Saied also dissolved the
Supreme Judicial Council and Parliament, sacked
dozens of judges and suspended the 2014 constitution
that had been hailed as a milestone for the Arab
world. For a long time, Tunisia was considered a role
model for a democratic transformation that became
the starting point for the revolutions and uprisings in
the Arab world from 2011 onwards. The setbacks and
breaks in Tunisia's lighthouse narrative that followed
the euphoria will no longer be able to be ignored after
July 25 at the latest.
The president's drastic step last summer came at the
right time for many, and he was euphorically
celebrated on Tunisia's streets for his determination.
Not only had the country long been in a deep
economic and financial crisis that everyone could
feel, and which had been exacerbated by the
consequences of the pandemic. A majority of
Tunisians recently saw their country in a hopeless
impasse, particularly in terms of domestic politics.
Most recently, many only equated its democratic
legacy with a political class notorious for being
corrupt, whose frightening inability to act became
particularly clear during the dramatic weeks of the
pandemic. Feelings of nostalgia for the expelled
ruler Since the surprise election of the political
newcomer in October 2019, Saied's program has
inspired large sections of the population, especially
young people. He announced a fight against
corruption and the political elites as its supposed
originators, as well as a political in-depth reform for
more direct democracy, packaged in the language and
symbolic actionism of populism to appeal to voters.
Few of his critics got through with their concerns
about an authoritarian drift in the Saied system. The
lack of the hoped-for democratic dividend clearly put
enormous pressure on the young Tunisian democracy
to succeed and deliver in the form of economic
decline and disenchantment with politics. Some of
the population had succumbed to a nostalgic longing
for the stability of the years before 2011 under the
authoritarian rule of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
On Monday the Tunisians are to vote in a referendum
on the draft constitution, which Kais Saied only
presented to the public on June 30th. Only a few days
later, the President spoke again and presented a
corrected version of his draft constitution. Even if the
changes were less of a substantive nature than word
corrections, for many critics in the country this is
further evidence that not only the way the referendum
was carried out is questionable, but also the draft
itself: the draft constitution contains many, and
rightly so elements criticized in Tunisia as backward
and anti-democratic. Significantly, the head of the
draft commission appointed by the president publicly
distanced himself from it after the text was published.
The draft has "in no way" anything to do with the
version presented by the Commission. Instead, he
attested to the draft's "considerable risks and
shortcomings" with the possibility of "paving the way
to a dictatorial regime." Independence of the
judiciary is ended In fact, the design is entirely
designed for the President. Presidential,
parliamentary and local elections are to continue. But
the draft envisages a presidential system, with no
major restrictions or accountability. Checks and
balances: none. The president alone appoints the
government and can dismiss it at any time. He can
also dissolve the legislature, which is now supposed
to consist of two chambers - instead of one - without
it being clear how these will work together and what
involvement the new chamber of "regions and
provinces" is supposed to take on. He can submit
legislative proposals without the participation of
others; in the case of budgetary laws, for example, he
alone is entitled to do so. Although his term of office
is limited to two five-year periods, this can also be
extended in exceptional cases.
The separation of powers with the judiciary has also
been abolished. It is true that the constitutional court
provided for in the 2014 constitution never came into
being, since the parliament had not been able to
nominate the constitutional judges before it was
dissolved. In the current draft, however, the
constitutional court clearly loses powers; its cast also
changes. With this, the President appoints every
single judge in the country. The basic freedoms of
the 2014 constitution remain largely in place. It is not
only here, however, that the draft often refers to the
simple law, for example in the specific task
designation of the Supreme Judicial Council or the
municipalities. The details are therefore (still)
unclear, much remains vague; citizens largely do not
know what they are voting on. Unlike before, there is
neither an anti-corruption authority nor a human
rights commission. Departure from secular course?
Finally, the draft also raises the question of what role
Islam should play in the state. Previously, the religion
of the Tunisian state was Islam. The draft now
stipulates that "the state alone must strive to achieve
the goals of Islam within the framework of a
democratic system". What this means in practical
terms remains uncertain, but the revision of the
religion article caused astonishment, since Saied was
previously considered an advocate of secularism and
a staunch opponent of Islamism.
But in addition to the content of the draft, the
constitutional process is also criticized. The
referendum expressly contradicts the current
constitution, which provides for the participation of
parliament and the constitutional court in
constitutional amendments. The process, in its
relatively short time, was neither inclusive nor
sufficiently participatory. The President even
prevented a public discussion. Even if in the course
of the year-long consolidation of power in Saied little
resistance has been formed by political parties, civil
society and the population as a whole and Saied's
constitutional experiment has benefited less from its
own prospects of success and more from the
collective negative experience of democracy and the
mobilization problems of opposition forces: Ahead of
the referendum that Saied wants to use to legitimize
his "new republic," Tunisia is increasingly divided.
A black day President Saied had already held an
online referendum in the spring in order to
demonstrate dialogue with the people and a
participatory approach in preparation for the
upcoming referendum. Tunisian turnout, however,
was sobering, with only around seven percent of the
voting population. Even if a significantly higher
turnout is to be expected this time - which current
surveys are now assuming - the country is facing a
crucial test. A national dialogue involving all actors
will be necessary in the long term, not only in the
case of weak participation, in order to avoid
destabilizing Tunisia.
By now, at the latest, many in Tunisia have realized
that the draft constitution and referendum have halted
the country's democratic transformation for the time
being. The overdue reforms, the restructuring of the
state budget and economy and thus a long-term
improvement in the living conditions of many
Tunisians seem to be a long way off. The new
constitution hardly addresses these issues. This could
quickly cause the new system under Kais Saied to
have difficulties in explaining itself, should it - like
the previous governments - not be able to deliver in
the end. The systematic dismantling of democratic
achievements not only paved the way to a
presidential-autocratic system of government, but
also confirmed skeptics about the feasibility of
democracy throughout the Arab world. With the
current developments, Tunisia is threatened with
further potential for conflict. Regardless of the
outcome of the referendum, July 25 promises to be a
black day for Tunisian democracy, its remaining
supporters in Tunisia, and its former admirers in the
region and in Europe.