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 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION
2017, VOL. 0, NO. 0, 1–16
https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2017.1402972

Street morphology and severity of road casualties: A 5-year study of Greater London
Chinmoy Sarkara,b, Chris Webstera, and Sarika Kumaria
Q1 a
HKUrbanLab, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong; bDepartment of Urban Planning
Q2 & Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong

5 ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Built environment factors, especially street-scale design and traffic casualties, are intrinsically interlinked. Received 30 November 2016
Starting from Alker Tripp’s seminal ideas about city design, street morphology, and accident risk, this Revised 6 September 2017
article summarizes results from an increasingly sophisticated line of enquiry at the boundaries between Accepted 6 November 2017
transport geography, network modeling, urban geography, and planning. It goes on to specify what we KEYWORDS
10 believe to be the most comprehensive study yet, based on five years’ worth of road casualty data from traffic casualty severity;
London; GIS data on street morphology and physical features captured at a street-link unit of analysis; STATS19; urban design;
socio-economics and other determinants of accidents; and individual data about casualty victims. We test morphometrics; multilevel;
hypotheses about links between urban morphology and casualty severity using multi-level models with KSI
individual victim attributes at level-one, street-link morphology attributes (various measure of network
connectivity) at level-two, and neighborhood descriptors at level-three.
Results indicate that street-level morphology and design (expressed as in terms of betweenness,
divergence ratio, and hull radius), together with traffic volume and physical features of streets are all
significantly associated with odds of “Killed and Seriously Injured” (KSI) causality incidents. We find the
strongest evidence yet recorded that London’s 20-MPH speed-restricted residential zones reduce the
incidence of KSI; while neighborhood-level factors such as population density, deprivation of living
environment, and access to services are also significant predictors of KSI indicating that selective urban
territorial enclosure can save lives.

Introduction
15 Road traffic injuries constitute one of the top ten leading causes
of death and is predicted to ascend the ladder further by 2030
(Mathers & Loncar, 2006; WHO, 2009). The Global Burden of
Disease study estimated a 45.8% and 5.9% increase in all-age
premature deaths and age-standardized death rates respectively
20 from transport related injuries over a 20-year period over
1990–2010 (Lozano et al., 2013). In the OECD countries, there
has been a decreasing trend in the number of traffic fatalities
per population and per vehicle mile traversed. Nonetheless,
sharp increments in the number of motor vehicles imply that
25 road traffic injuries remain a major public health risk. In Great
Britain, the Department of Transport estimates a total of
138,688 fatalities over the past 35 years with an average of
2,452 fatalities annually during 2004–2013. In 2013 alone, there
were 186,670 reported road accident causalities resulting in
30 1,713 fatalities and 21,657 serious injuries, with an estimated
£14.71 billion in direct and indirect casualty and accident-
related costs (Department of Transport, 2014). Walking and
cycling are the most vulnerable transport modes, interacting
with traffic at high speed and mass, and considerable research
35 and policy focus has been laid on minimizing crash frequencies
and fatalities. Data from 2011 indicate that walking and cycling
constitute 21% and 2% of daily journeys respectively, but
account for 35% and 20% of “Killed and Seriously Injured”
(KSI) casualties. Transport for London has an ambitious goal
of reducing current total KSI by 40% by 2020 (TFL, 2013). 40
The important role played by built environment factors, espe-
cially street-scale design in the incidence of traffic casualties has
long been established. In the UK, Alker Tripp’s seminal urban
retrofitting plan for post-war Britain stressed the importance of
designing optimized layouts to enable effective traffic density- 45
based segregation (Figure 1). It included high volume arterial
roads, sub-arterial roads for channeling traffic, with green mar-
gins and void of any buildings and direct frontage development
on either side. To avoid traffic-related casualties, these roads
would remain sharply isolated from local community streets, 50
which would cater to their own shops and service needs with a
priority on pedestrians and with no heavy traffic.(Tripp, 1938,
1942). His idea of British cities reconstructed on the basis of pre-
cincts and comprising a hierarchy of roads were included in
Abercrombie’s Greater London Plan, (1944), Watson and 55
Abercrombie’s Plan for Plymouth , (1943) and Abercrombie’s Q4
Plan for Bath, (1945). Echoing a similar principle of isolation of Q5
residential areas from dangerous traffic, Clarence Perry in US
proposed the concept of neighbourhood as a fundamental urban

CONTACT Chinmoy Sarkar csarkar@hku.hk

Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/ujst.
Q3 The entire layout of all newly developed areas must, if necessary, be made dependent on that safety factor; it would be rather futile to plan, by means of layout, for
hygiene and amenity, but at the same time to overlook that this same layout is likely, daily and hourly, to cause death or maiming. Sir H. Alker Tripp, 1942.
© 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
 2 C. SARKAR ET AL.
Figure 1. Role of layout design in preventing traffic casualty (reproduced from Tripp, 1942, pg. 21).
60 design unit (Perry, 1929). Perry’s neighborhoods were function-
ally defined and bounded on all sides by arterial roads with retail
and commercial services located adjacent to the high volume
roads, with autonomous internal residential street layouts to
facilitate pedestrian movement and discouraged traffic. Stress
65 was laid on the creation of residential areas with fewer and nar-
rower streets for traffic exclusion, designed sidewalks and plant-
ing, landscaped circles and ovals at junctions for controlling
traffic speeds, staggered cross streets, dead-end streets and cul-
de-sacs for integrating multi-modal transport and pedestrian
70 flows (Southworth & Ben-Joseph, 1995). Similarly, the plan for
Radburn in Fair Lawn, New Jersey comprised 30–60 acre super-
blocks each to support planned neighborhoods of 7500–10000
residents with considerable focus to optimize street design by
segregating traffic from residential areas and separating traffic
75 modes (Garvin, 1995; Stein, 1966).
Drawing inspiration from these early street-scale design
interventions to reduce traffic casualties, post-1950 urban
development underwent a paradigm change from gridiron
street patterns in the USA and organic patterns in the UK and
other European countries, to hierarchical layouts with super- 80
blocks. In one of the earliest empirical studies of scientific traf-
fic planning, Marks (1957) reported a higher 5-year crash
frequency of 77 crashes/year in the gridded street patterns of
Los Angeles County compared to only 10.2 crashes/year on
limited–access sub-divisions, with significantly higher crash 85
frequencies on 4-way intersections than 3-way intersections.
Whitelegg (1987) stressed the need to study the geographical
distribution of road traffic accidents to understand the relation-
ship between spatio-temporal regularities in accident inciden-
ces and underlying contextual factors. Another English study 90
reported a quadratic relationship between incidences of pedes-
trian casualty and KSI and urban density, with rates of casualty
and KSI higher in high density residential areas, but lower in
extremely dense economic zones (Graham & Glaister, 2003). In
the US, Ewing and Dumbaugh (2009) found three factors of 95
their metropolitan sprawl indices: higher density, finer land use
mix, and more centering, to be associated with lower per capita

highway crash fatality. Similarly, Dumbaugh and Rae (2009)
reported higher traffic crashes and injuries along the arterial
100 and arterial-oriented commercial development and fewer
crashes along traditional pedestrian-scaled developments in the
City of San Antonio, Texas. Lovegrove and Sayed (2006)
reported significantly higher crash rates in gridded collector
roads, 4-way intersections with reference to T-intersections.
105 Higher intersection density has also been associated with
reduced crash fatality and injury (Ladr
on de Guevara et al.,
2004). A study conducted in Alberta, Canada found that irregu-
lar street patterns, especially loops and lollipops, had an
inverted U-shaped effect on crash severity, with increments in
110 the probability of injury but at the same time, beneficial reduc-
tions in fatality (Rifaat et al., 2011).
From a public health perspective, there have been several stud-
ies linking street-level configuration and design with key public
health phenomenon, notably walkability, obesity, and mental
115 health (Ball et al., 2012; Frank et al., 2006; Sarkar et al., 2013a;
Sarkar et al., 2014). More recently however, only a few studies
have examined the relationships of objective measures of street-
level geometry and configuration with traffic accidents. Jones
et al. (2008) found significant effects of road length and curvature
120 on accident frequency. Marshall and Garrick (2011) in a study of
24 Californian cities reported a positive association between
number of crashes and link-to-node ratio, while the association
with intersection density had a negative sign. Another study
found a positive association between a “meshedness” coefficient
125 and number of crashes per square kilometer (Wang et al., 2013).
However, these studies have focused on accident frequencies
rather than severity. For policy purposes as well as for inform-
ing urban design and traffic engineering, severity and frequency
are both important, with severity arguably being the more
130 important. Existing studies have all been ecological; conducted
at an aggregate level of census tract or traffic analysis zone and
generalized statements about configuration of street links, the
fundamental unit of analyses, cannot therefore be made from
them. Addressing these limitations, we have undertaken what
135 we believe to be the first study to measure the association
between accident severity and street morphology measured at
the street link scale. Specifically, the focus of the present study
is to examine the associations between accident severity,
expressed as “Killed and Seriously Injured” (KSI) incidents
140 with urban morphology as well as street level physical attrib-
utes, after adjusting for other key factors including traffic vol-
ume, neighborhood level population, and deprivation.
We hypothesize that street-level spatial layout and design
configure the socio-spatial distribution of casualty risk severity.
145 We test our hypothesis by employing the large-scale Police
STATS19 road casualty data of the Department of Transport for
the Greater London Authority over a 5-year period. Network
modeling was conducted using spatial Design Network Analysis
(sDNA), to construct a series of street link-level morphological
150 metrics (morphometrics) of design and physical accessibility at
multiple urban scales (ranging from micro- through meso- and
macro-scales). Spatial analyses were conducted to measure other
physical features attributed to road network links. The study
employed a multi-level modeling strategy and aimed to:
155 a) examine associations between road casualty severity and
underlying urban morphology and physical design at the
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 3
level of individual road links after adjusting for neighbor-
hood-level and casualty-level factors,
b) assess these relationships for vehicle-occupant and
pedestrian casualties, 160
c) and identify the impact of spatial scales upon casualty
severity.
Methods
As per our primary hypothesis, we aim to examine the links
between street morphology measured at multiple spatial scales 165
and road casualty severity after adjusting for a range of other
influencing factors. Predictor variable selection was based on the
priori evidenced links between traffic casualty risks and street-
level spatial configuration (Haynes et al., 2007; Marshall &
Garrick, 2011; Wang et al., 2013), physical features including 170
road type and shape of intersections (Ladr
on de Guevara et al.,
2004; Lovegrove & Sayed, 2006; Quddus, 2015; Rifaat et al.,
2011), traffic volume (Abdel-Aty & Radwan, 2000; Yau et al.,
2006), traffic control interventions (Bunn et al., 2003; Elvik,
2001; Grundy et al., 2009; Retting et al., 2003), environmental 175
conditions (Plainis et al., 2006), individual socio-demographics
(Abdel-Aty & Radwan, 2000) and neighborhood-level socio-eco-
nomic deprivation (Morency et al., 2012; Steinbach et al., 2013).
Road casualty and street network data
The road casualty data employed in the present study is the 180
national level Police STATS19 dataset of fatality and injury on
public roads compiled by the UK Department of Transport.
The STATS19 dataset contains detailed information on acci-
dent, casualty and vehicles variables including date, casualty
type, easting and northing coordinates as well as nearest junc- 185
tion details of each casualty. The Department of Transport
defines casualty severity as “fatal” if an individual dies within
30 days of a crash incident, “serious” if an individual is detained
as an in-patient in a hospital or suffers subsequent injuries
requiring medical treatment, while any other minor injuries are 190
classified as “slight.” In the present study, we extracted the
STATS19 dataset within the Greater London Authority bound-
ary covering a 5-year period (2008–2012) and geocoded them
within ArcGIS 10.2. The geocoded dataset comprised a total of
143,299 crash incidences with 108,333 casualties involving 195
driver, rider, and passenger of vehicles 26,464 casualties involv-
ing pedestrian.
As the base street network, we employed the UK Ordnance
Survey Integrated Transport Network (ITN) layer. The ITN pro-
vides a topologically structured representation of the street net- 200
work including information on geometry of road links (length as
well as references to the node features at either ends), road type
(motorway, A-road, alleyway, etc.), junctions, elevation, road
names and numbers and information about the nature of the
road that the link represents (single carriageway, dual carriage- 205
way, slip road, etc.). The geocoded STATS19 dataset was linked
to the nearest ITN street link via a series of spatial GIS queries.
The linked dataset thus generated therefore comprised data on
casualty severity category as well as information on casualty-level
predictors (socio-demographics such as age and gender); street 210
link-level predictors (including network centrality of the link,
 4 C. SARKAR ET AL.
traffic volume and other morphometrics of the street link in
which the casualty occurred); as well as neighborhood-level pre-
dictors (density and deprivation).
215 Casualty-level variables
Casualty-level predictors included road user type, age, gender,
accident day, and light conditions. Age was modeled as a five-
level factor with
20 years acting as a reference category. Gen-
der was expressed as a two-level factor with females acting as a
220 reference category. “Day of week” of casualty incidence was col-
lapsed into a two-level factor (weekends versus weekdays).
“Light conditions” was collapsed in to a two-level factor (night
time versus day time).
Street link-level variables
225 Street-link physical attributes
Predictors of street link-level physical features were derived from
STATS19 database and comprised road type, junction type, and
type of pedestrian crossing facilities. The road type of the street
links with casualty incidence was collapsed into a three-level fac-
230 tor (single carriageway, dual carriageway and others) with the
former acting as a reference category. The junction type associ-
ated with each casualty was categorized into a four factor vari-
able: “not at a junction or within 20 m of it”; “T, Y or staggered
junctions”; “cross roads” and “others” with the first category act-
235 ing as a reference. The type of pedestrian crossing facilities in a
street link with casualty incidence was expressed in terms of: not
having any crossing facility within 50 m, pedestrian phase at traf-
fic signal junction, zebra, and others.
Street-level network morphometrics
240 Since the early conceptual development of network modeling, a
series of terms such as proximity,” “connectivity,” “integration,”
“choice,” ‘cost,” “effort,” etc., have emerged to describe net-
works and to assess them normatively. Centrality is an impor-
tant aspect of urban spatial economics as well as urban design.
245 It defines the degree of connectedness or accessibility within an
urban network in terms of distance (both Euclidean and geo-
metric) as well as time costs and hence, configures all the
related geographical and socio-economic phenomena. Network
analysis techniques are driven by simple and tested, yet compu-
250 tationally demanding, mathematical algorithms that owe their
origins to graph theory (Crucitti et al., 2006; Freeman, 1979;
Hillier, 1999; Porta et al., 2006; Wasserman & Faust, 1994).
In the present study, we employ spatial Design Network
Analysis (sDNA), a multi-level network modeling technique for
255 objective assessment of street-level form and morphology.1 The
sDNA software was developed to improve computational effi-
ciency compared to other techniques and to render spatial net-
work analysis suitable for scientific analysis, notably spatial
econometrics and spatial epidemiology. It has thus far been
260 employed for studying network effects on health in general
(Sarkar et al., 2014, 2015a), active travel (Sarkar et al., 2015b),
1
Cooper, C., Chiaradia, A., Webster, C. (2016) Spatial Design Network Analysis soft-
ware, version 3.4, http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/sdna/
physical, and mental health (Sarkar, 2017; Sarkar et al., 2013a,
2013b). Founded on classical network theory, sDNA theorizes
that it is the topology and geometry of the network that governs
the extent of kinetic resistance to flows through them. Network 265
topology and geometry determine the friction governing distri-
bution of the agglomeration benefits and dis-benefits that char-
acterize a city. sDNA functions in conjunction with GIS and
processes standard street network databases to produce a suit
of spatial morphological metrics (morphometrics) of street- 270
level configuration, measuring centrality, detour, shape, effi-
ciency, and link characteristics at user-defined spatial scales
and appended to each link in the network. These have the
potential to capture behaviorally meaningful subtleties in the
topology and geometry of the underlying urban grid at link- 275
level, which in essence captures the friction governing urban
flows such as movement of vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians
and their collisions.
The ITN network dataset modeled in our study consists of
516,439 street links in the wider London region, with 226,055 280
links lying within the Greater London boundary. This was cleaned
and simplified and a series of sDNA network models created, each
at a pre-defined catchment radii, thereby capturing effects of spa-
tial scales ranging from micro- (neighborhood), meso- (city) and
macro- (regional) levels and encompassing catchments ranging 285
from 400 to 50,000 m. To examine the association between net-
work configurational characteristics and accident severity we
employed three kinds of network morphometrics: betweenness,
mean diversion ratio, and convex hull radius. These operationalize
the ideas of network centrality, detour, and shape respectively and 290
the measures are explained below.
Network centrality was assessed through betweenness, which
measures the through-movement flow of a street link in the
urban network. It is proportional to the simulated count of
movements passing through the link from and to all other parts 295
of the network, assuming that journeys in the network follow
the shortest angular path between all pairs of segments. Longer
street links generally tend to have more origins and destina-
tions (OD) thereby supporting more trips; hence, it is custom-
ary to use standardized link length-weighted betweenness 300
(Turner, 2007). In graphical terminology, link length-weighted
sDNA betweenness of x in a graph of N links may be defined as:
X X
Bt WlðxÞ D LðyÞLðz ÞPðz ÞODðy; z; xÞ;
yeN zeRy
where y and z are the geodesic end point; Ry is the set of links
within a defined radius from y; L(y) and L(z) are length of links 305
y and z, respectively; Pz is the proportion of link z within the
defined radius and the function OD is defined as:
8
> 1; if x is on the geodesics from y to z
>
>1
>
>
>
> ; if x  y  z
>
>
<2
1
OD D ; if x  z  y
>
> 2
>
>
>
> 1
> ; if x  z  y
>
>
:2
0; otherwise
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 5

310 The mean diversion ratio (MDR) is a measure of network across three categories (cars and taxis, coaches and LGVs and
efficiency and calculates the degree of deviation from the most other heavy vehicles including F3, F4, F5 and F6 categories).
direct route. MDR is thus a proxy of network indirectness or
sinuosity and is calculated as the mean of the ratios between
Neighborhood-level variables
sum of crow-flight and sum of geodesic for each OD pair
315 within the predefined catchment radius. Thus, link-weighted We also employed two domain indices of the English Index of
MDR of x in a graph of N links may be defined as: Multiple Deprivation (EIMD), 2010 to measure neighborhood- 365
level deprivation. EIMD-2010 uses 38 separate indicators to con-
1 X dEu ðx; yÞ stitute seven distinct domains of deprivation calculated for every
MDR WlðxÞ D X LðyÞPðyÞ;
LðyÞ:PðyÞ yeRx CFDðx; yÞ Lower layer Super Output Area (LSOA) in England. The LSOAs
yeRx
are relatively stable, compact census-defined neighborhood units
of around 1500 people with reasonable degrees of homogeneity 370
where: Rx is the set of links within a defined radius from x; L(y) in shape and social composition (Bates, 2006). We used the “liv-
and Py are length and proportion of link within the defined ing environment” domain and “geographical barriers” sub-
320 radius; dEu (x,y) is the Euclidian distance along an angular geo- domain of EIMD. The “living environment” domain measures
desic with origin x and destination y and CFD (x,y) the crow deprivation with respect to quality of indoor and outdoor living
flight distance between the centers of links x and y. environment. The “geographical barriers” sub-domain measures 375
The maximum convex hull radius (MCHR) of a street link is lack of access to services using a composite index of street distan-
the maximum radius of a convex hull (a convex hull being the ces to GP surgery, supermarkets/convenience store, post office,
325 convex formed by all origins and destinations within a specified and primary school. We used this as a proxy of urban density
radial catchment). A longer value of MCHR indicates the exis- and access to basic services. The deprivation domains were trans-
tence of at least one long, straight and unhindered route that formed into quartiles with the lowest quartile acting as a refer- 380
connects it to the wider network. ence category. Population density by LSOA was enumerated
These sDNA morphometrics were modeled at three network from annual data released by the UK Office of National Statistics.
330 catchment radii of 400, 3000, and 7500 m to correspond respec-
tively to walking-, neighborhood- and city-level urban scales.
Statistical methodology
Our choice of the three scales was corroborated by trip-level
travel data from the London Travel Demand Survey 2009/10 Accident casualty data are characterized by inherent hierarchi-
(comprising 26,614 walk, 865 cycle, 18,929 car and taxi, 8,581 cal structure and hence the propensity for high degree of corre- 385
335 bus and 623 van trips (TFL, 2011). As previously validated lations among observations. For example, social–spatial
(Porta et al., 2014), an urban scale of 400 m corresponded to clustering of accident casualties may occur on a specific street
the median distance walked. A scale of 3000 m corresponded to links with intrinsic design features and lying within a neighbor-
the top 99 percentile of walk trips, mean cycling, and bus trip hood with similar socio-economic and built environment con-
as well as median cars (and taxi) trips, while a city scale of ditions. In other words, casualties occurring on the same 390
340 7,500 m represented median van/lorry trips. The modeled spatial units of aggregation (say a street link or neighborhood)
betweenness, MDR and MCHR at the three urban scales are are more likely to be similar than those derived from the rest of
illustrated in Figure 2. the sample. A multilevel modeling approach enables us to avoid
unreliable estimates and misinterpretation on account of such
20-miles-per-hour zones as traffic control intervention clustering (Jones & Jørgensen, 2003; Lord & Mannering, 2010). 395
The impact of traffic speed upon casualty severity was incorpo- We used a hierarchical three-level mixed effects modeling strat-
345 rated in the study by adjusting for designated 20-MPH zones as egy to examine associations between street-level morphomet-
listed by Transport for London, given the prior evidence of traf- rics, physical design and road casualty severity. Accident
fic control intervention upon accident severity (Grundy et al., casualty severity was modeled as a binary outcome variable (0
2009). All street links with incident casualty were categorized for minor injury and 1 for severe or fatal injury), representing 400
as either falling inside or outside a 20-MPH zone. the odds of being killed and seriously injured (KSI). For individ-
ual casualties i nested within street links j and clustered within
350 Bus stops LSOA-neighborhoods k, the three-level random intercept logit
Data on bus stops were geocoded from the National Public model can be written as:
Transport Access Nodes (NaPTAN) dataset and the number of n  o
bus stop in each street link was calculated through GIS queries. Logit Pr yijk D 1 j xijk ; hLjk ; hNk
n o n o
This was expressed as a three-level factor (none, one, and greater D bo C bC1 x1ijk
C
C  C bCc xcijk
C
C bL1 x1ijk
L
C C bLl xlijk
L
355 than one) with the former acting as the reference category.
n o   406
C bN1 x1ijk
N
C  C bNn xnijk
N
C hLjk C hNk D bo C hLjk C hNk
Traffic volume n o n o
Data on average volume of various categories of vehicular traffic C bC1 x1ijk
C
C  C bCc xcijk
C
C bL1 x1ijk
L
C C bLl xlijk
L
on the street links were obtained from the London Greenhouse n o
Gas Inventory (LEGGI) database. We employed the link-based C b1 x1ijk C  C bn xnijk
N N N N
360 LEGGI estimates of vehicular counts for the years 2008 and 2011
410
 6 C. SARKAR ET AL.

Where xijk D [( C
x1ijk ; . . . . . . ; xcijk
C
/; .x1ijk
L
; . . . . . . ; xlijk
L
/; associations. Final models included only significant predictor 420
.x1ijk
N
; . . . . . . ; xnijk
N
/0 is a vector containing c casualty-level, l street variables. Sets of models were developed for the all-casualty
 and n neighborhood-level covariates; hjk j xijk ; hk » N
L N
link-level dataset. As a sensitivity analyses, separate sets of models were
0; cL is the level 2 random  intercept varying over street links; further developed for vehicle-occupant casualties (involving
415 and hN k j x ijk » N 0; c N
is the level 3 random intercept vary- driver, rider and passenger of vehicles) only and pedestrian
ing over LSOA-neighborhoods. casualties only. All models were fitted using Generalized Linear 425
As earlier, the final models comprised five casualty-level, Latent and Mixed Models (GLLAMM) within Stata 13 statisti-
twelve street link-level and three neighborhood-level predictors cal software package. GLLAMM maximizes the marginal log-
selected on the basis of prior research evidence and bi-variate likelihood through numeric integration via a method called

Figure 2. Street level urban morphometrics of betweenness, mean divergence ratio and maximum convex hull radius measured at spatial scales of 400, 3000 and 7500 m
(sDNA analyses was performed over UK Ordnance Survey licensed Integrated Transport Network layer). a Note: These maps capture multi-scalar betweenness (through-move-
ment potential). At a micro-scale (400 m), the green links represent high betweenness (through-movement) capturing local neighborhoods with high movement density.
At meso- and macro-scales (3000 and 7500 m), the yellow and green are the street links with moderate to high betweenness capturing streets with higher movement
density. b Note: These maps capture multi-scalar mean divergence ratio (network indirectedness or sinuosity). From a micro-scale (400 m) toward macro-scales (7500 m),
the red colored links are the street links with low mean divergence ratio (or more direct routes). c Note: These maps capture multi-scalar mean convex hull radius (indicat-
ing long unhindered route). From a micro-scale (400 m) toward macro-scales (7500 m), the green colored links are the street links with high mean convex hull radius (or
presence of at least one long unhindered route within the defined scale).

Figure 2. (Continued)
adaptive quadrature (GLLAMM, 2010; Rabe-Hesketh et al.,
430 2005). Standard errors were further adjusted using a Huber-
White sandwich estimator.
Results
After excluding missing data, the 5-year study reported a total
of 133,074 casualties occurring in 46,539 street links spatially
435 distributed over 4,707 LSOA neighborhoods of Greater Lon-
don. Those involving driver, rider, and passenger of vehicles
constituted 108,333 casualties in 43,525 street links and 4,665
neighborhoods. There were 24,741 pedestrian casualties in
16,655 street links and 4,086 neighborhoods over the same
440 period. Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) constituted 14,504
(10.89%) of all-casualties, 9,543 (8.81%) of vehicle-occupant
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 7
casualties and 4,961 (25.08%) of pedestrian casualties. The
descriptive statistics of street link-, neighborhood- and casu-
alty-level variables for minor casualty and KSI are presented in
Table 1. The Kruskal–Wallis p-value shows a significant differ- 445
ence in most of the predictors by casualty severity type.
The results of mixed effects logistic regression models exam-
ining association of odds of being KSI with street level mor-
phology, physical features and other covariates for all-
casualties, vehicle-user and pedestrian casualties are presented 450
in Tables 2–4, respectively. The impact of street link-level con-
figuration on odds of being KSI after adjusting for all other pre-
dictors was assessed at three different spatial scales; 400, 3000,
and 7500 m catchment radii in models 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
In other words, we tested for an association between KSI and 455
“betweenness centrality” measured at walking scale and two
 8 C. SARKAR ET AL.
Figure 2. (Continued)
city scales. High betweenness at walking scale indicates a street
structure conducive to relatively high volumes of pedestrian
flow through the street link. City scale betweenness indicates a
460 street structure conducive to relatively high volumes of vehicle
movement. To enable ease of interpretation, all the continuous
predictor variables were standardized using z-score so that the
odds ratios can be interpreted as relative odds associated with
unit standard deviation increment. The fixed component of the
465 model assessed the magnitude, direction, and significance of
the relationships between the odds of being KSI and the casu-
alty-, street link- and neighborhood-level predictors; while the
random component measured the inherent correlations in the
observations within levels, separating these into link-level and
470 LSOA neighborhood-level random effects. The residual vari-
ance estimates at link- and LSOA-levels remained significant in
our all-casualty models. However, casualty level (level 1)
accounted for the bulk of variability in the outcome at 88.12%,
while street link level (level 2) and LSOA neighborhood level
(level 3) accounted for 9.22% and 2.66%, respectively. 475
Among the street-level morphometrics, road link length was
consistently associated with higher odds of being KSI at the
three scales of 400, 3000, and 7500 m in our all-casualties mod-
els (OR D 1.03, 95% CI D 1.01–1.05; in models 1 and 2 and
1.05, 1.02–1.08 in model 3). Similar trends in associations were 480
observed for vehicle-occupant casualties, however, it was not
significant in case of pedestrian casualties. Higher betweenness
was associated with higher odds of being KSI, the relationship
being significant only at a city scale of 7500 m for all-casualties
analyses (1.04, 1.01–1.06 for model 3). A similar trend was 485
observed in cases of casualties involving driver, rider, and pas-
sengers of vehicles. However, in the case of pedestrian casual-
ties, betweenness was significant at all the three scales of 400,
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 9

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of street link-, neighborhood- and casualty-level variables by casualty severity.

Casualty severity – Minor Casualty severity – Killed and Seriously Injured p-Value of
Predictors (Mean, SD) N1 D 118,570 (Mean, SD) (N2 D 14,504) difference

Street link-level
Morphology
Link length 168.59 (459.9) 174.44 (507.74) <0.001
Betweenness R400 m 14.08 (0.68) 14.09 (0.68) 0.04
Betweenness R3000 m 20.44 (1.54) 20.49 (1.53) <0.001
Betweenness R7500 m 23.00 (2) 23.07 (2) <0.001
Divergence ratio R400 m 1.39 (0.48) 1.39 (0.31) 0.83
Divergence ratio R3000 m 1.51 (0.27) 1.5 (0.23) <0.001
Divergence ratio R7500 m 1.46 (0.13) 1.45 (0.12) <0.001
Maximum convex hull radius R400 m 391.67 (14.59) 391.99 (14.21) 0.02
Maximum convex hull radius R3000 m 2864.85 (90.49) 2865.14 (89.98) 0.95
Maximum convex hull radius R7500 m 7105.62 (181.5) 7105.94 (181.73) 0.83
Physical features
Road type; % <0.001
Single carriageway 80.04 83.08
Dual Carriageway 13.10 11.63
Others 6.86 5.29
Junction type; % <0.001
Not at junction or within 20 m 24.59 27.79
T, Y or staggered 45.13 44.81
Cross roads 17.81 17.00
Others 12.47 10.40
Pedestrian crossing facilities; % <0.001
No crossing facility within 50 m 68.43 65.38
Pedestrian phase at traffic signal junction 17.73 17.69
Zebra 6.93 7.81
Others 6.91 9.12
20 mile zones; % 0.26
No 91.94 92.20
Yes 8.06 7.80
Number of bus stops 0.81 (1.26) 0.9 (1.37) <0.001
Traffic volume
Taxis and cars 18677.42 (17542.9) 17739.18 (15840.15) <0.001
Coaches and LGVs 3735.02 (3220.97) 3442.25 (2985.7) <0.001
Heavy vehicles 334.94 (490.89) 310.78 (445.58) 0.02
Neighborhood-level
Population density 7927.87 (5529.18) 8017.57 (5586.65) 0.1
Deprivation – Living environment 38.84 (15.19) 39.80 (15.30) <0.001
Deprivation – Access to service destinations 9.32 (11.07) 8.94 (11.05) <0.001
Casualty-level
Age 35.11 (16.19) 36.69 (18.7) <0.001
Gender; % <0.001
Male 63.33 68.93
Female 36.67 31.07
Day of week; % 0.17
Weekday 75.35 74.83
Weekend 24.65 25.17
Light conditions; % <0.001
Daylight 70.62 65.87
Night time 29.38 34.13

3000, and 7500 m (1.05, 1.01–1.08; 1.04, 1.00–1.08 and 1.05,
490 1.01–1.09 in models 1, 2, and 3, respectively). In the case of
mean divergence ratio, a higher value at a walkable scale of
400 m is associated with higher odds of being KSI (1.01, 1.00–
1.03 for all-casualties and 1.06, 1.02–1.10 for pedestrian casual-
ties). However, a higher city-scales of 3000 and 7500 m MDR
495 was associated with a lower propensity of accident fatality
(0.97, 0.95–1.00 and 0.94, 0.92–0.96 in models 2 and 3, respec-
tively). Similar associations were observed in the case of vehicu-
lar casualties (0.98, 0.95-1.00 and 0.93, 0.91–0.96 in models 2
and 3 respectively) and pedestrian casualties (0.95, 0.91–0.99 in
500 model 3). The maximum convex hull radius was associated
with higher odds of crash fatality at all the three scales (1.10,
1.07–1.12; 1.07, 1.04–1.09; 1.03, 1.01–1.06 for models 1, 2 and 3
respectively in our all-casualties models). Similar associations
were observed in our vehicular casualty models (1.09, 1.06–
1.12; 1.07, 1.04–1.10; 1.04, 1.01–1.07 for models 1, 2, and 3, 505
respectively) as well as pedestrian casualties models (1.12,
1.08–1.16; 1.10, 1.05–1.14; 1.07, 1.03–1.12 for models 1, 2, and
3, respectively).
The association between the odds of being KSI with varia-
bles of street-link-level physical features had little effect after 510
adjusting for street morphology at the three spatial scales.
There was a significantly reduced odds of being KSI in dual car-
riageways (0.74, 0.68–0.80; 0.75, 0.69–0.81; 0.76, 0.70–0.81 for
models 1, 2, and 3, respectively) as compared to single carriage-
ways. Similar protective effects were observed in the case of 515
vehicle-user and pedestrian KSIs although it was more pro-
nounced in the former. There was lower odds of being KSI for
casualties adjacent to T, Y or staggered junctions (0.57, 0.54–
0.59 in model 1 and 0.56, 0.54–0.59 in model 2 and 3) as well
as cross roads (0.60, 0.56–0.64 in models 1, 2, and 3) in 520
 10 C. SARKAR ET AL.

Table 2. Results of mixed effects logistic regression models examining association of odds of KSI with street level morphology, physical features and other covariates for
N D 133,074 casualties within Greater London from 2008–12.
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(Spatial scale – 400 m) (Spatial scale – 3000 m) (Spatial scale – 7500 m)
Predictors OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.)

Street link level

Morphology
Link length† 1.03 (1.01, 1.05)*** 1.03 (1.01, 1.05)*** 1.05 (1.02, 1.08)***
Betweenness† 1.00 (0.98, 1.03) 1.02 (1.00, 1.05)* 1.04 (1.01, 1.06)***
Divergence ratio† 1.01 (1.00, 1.03)* 0.97 (0.95, 1.00)** 0.94 (0.92, 0.96)***
Maximum convex hull radius† 1.10 (1.07, 1.12)*** 1.07 (1.04, 1.09)*** 1.03 (1.01, 1.06)***
Physical features
Road type
Single carriageway – Reference
Dual Carriageway 0.74 (0.68, 0.80)*** 0.75 (0.69, 0.81)*** 0.76 (0.70, 0.81)***
Others 0.75 (0.68, 0.83)*** 0.75 (0.68, 0.83)*** 0.75 (0.68, 0.83)***
Junction type
Not at junction or within 20 m – Reference
T, Y or staggered 0.57 (0.54, 0.59)*** 0.56 (0.54, 0.59)*** 0.56 (0.54, 0.59)***
Cross roads 0.60 (0.56, 0.64)*** 0.60 (0.56, 0.64)*** 0.60 (0.56, 0.64)***
Others 0.62 (0.57, 0.67)*** 0.61 (0.57, 0.66)*** 0.62 (0.57, 0.67)***
Pedestrian crossing facilities
No crossing facility within 50 m – Reference
Pedestrian phase at traffic signal junction 0.88 (0.83, 0.93)*** 0.87 (0.82, 0.93)*** 0.88 (0.83, 0.93)***
Zebra 0.85 (0.79, 0.92)*** 0.86 (0.80, 0.93)*** 0.87 (0.80, 0.94)***
Others 0.98 (0.91, 1.06) 0.98 (0.90, 1.05) 0.98 (0.91, 1.06)
20 mile zones (Yes vs. No) 0.64 (0.59, 0.70)*** 0.65 (0.60, 0.70)*** 0.64 (0.59, 0.69)***
Number of bus stops (1 vs. 0) 0.76 (0.73, 0.80)*** 0.77 (0.73, 0.81)*** 0.77 (0.74, 0.81)***
Number of bus stops (>1 vs. 0) 0.69 (0.65, 0.73)*** 0.70 (0.66, 0.74)*** 0.70 (0.66, 0.74)***
Traffic volume
Taxis and cars† 0.81 (0.77, 0.86)*** 0.81 (0.77, 0.86)*** 0.82 (0.78, 0.87)***
Coaches and LGVs† 1.30 (1.24, 1.37)*** 1.29 (1.23, 1.35)*** 1.28 (1.22, 1.35)***
Neighbourhood level
Population density† 0.97 (0.94, 0.99)*** 0.96 (0.94, 0.99)*** 0.95 (0.94, 0.98)***
Deprivation – Living environment† 1.09 (1.06, 1.12)*** 1.07 (1.04, 1.10)*** 1.06 (1.03, 1.10)***
Deprivation – Access to service destinations† 1.03 (1.00, 1.06)** 1.03 (1.00, 1.06)** 1.03 (1.01, 1.06)**
Casualty level
Driver/rider vs. Pedestrian 0.28 (0.26, 0.29)*** 0.28 (0.27, 0.30)*** 0.28 (0.27, 0.30)***
Passenger vs. Pedestrian 0.17 (0.16, 0.18)*** 0.17 (0.16, 0.18)*** 0.17 (0.16, 0.18)***
Age

20 years – Reference
21–35 years 0.57 (0.54, 0.60)*** 0.57 (0.54, 0.59)*** 0.57 (0.54, 0.59)***
36–45 years 0.55 (0.52, 0.58)*** 0.55 (0.52, 0.58)*** 0.55 (0.52, 0.58)***
46–60 years 0.59 (0.55, 0.62)*** 0.58 (0.55, 0.62)*** 0.58 (0.55, 0.62)***
> 60 years 0.93 (0.87, 0.99)** 0.92 (0.86, 0.99)** 0.92 (0.86, 0.98)**
Gender (Male vs. Female) 0.97 (0.94, 1.01) 0.97 (0.94, 1.00)* 0.97 (0.93, 1.00)*
Day of week (weekends vs. weekdays) 0.91 (0.87, 0.96)*** 0.91 (0.87, 0.96)*** 0.91 (0.87, 0.96)***
Day light (No vs. Yes) 1.14 (1.09, 1.19)*** 1.14 (1.09, 1.19)*** 1.14 (1.09, 1.19)***
Random effects
Between link variance (S.E.) 0.34 (0.03) 0.34 (0.03) 0.35 (0.03)
Between LSOA variance (S.E.) 0.10 (0.01) 0.11 (0.01) 0.10 (0.01)
Model statistic
¡2*Log likelihood 90531.44 90566.66 90567.22

p
0.01.

p
0.05.

p
0.10.
y
z-score.

reference to locations with no junctions (or not within 20 m of
the casualty incidence). In the case of pedestrian casualties, a
similar protective relationship was observed for T, Y or stag-
gered junctions (0.48, 0.45–0.51 in models 1–3) as well as cross-
525 roads (0.46, 0.41–0.51 in model 1 and 0.47, 0.42–0.52 in models
2 and 3, respectively). Similar effect estimates were observed in
the case of vehicular accidents involving drivers, riders, and
passengers. In reference to casualty locations with no pedes-
trian crossing facilities, those occurring in the pedestrian phase
530 at traffic signals had lower odds of being KSI (0.88, 0.83–0.93
in models 1 and 3 and 0.87, 0.82–0.93 in model 2) for all-casu-
alties models. Presence of zebra crossings was associated with
lower casualty severity in the case of both our all-casualties
(0.85, 0.79–0.92; 0.86, 0.80–0.93; 0.87, 0.80–0.94 for models 1,
2, and 3) as well as pedestrian casualties models (0.83, 0.74– 535
0.93; 0.84, 0.76–0.94 and 0.85, 0.77–0.95 in models 1, 2, and 3,
respectively). Street links identified as 20 mile zones were con-
sistently associated with lower odds of casualty fatality for all-
casualties (0.64, 0.59–0.70; 0.65, 0.60–0.70 and 0.64, 0.59–0.69
in models 1, 2, and 3, respectively), vehicle-user casualties 540
(0.66, 0.59–0.73; 0.67, 0.60–0.74; 0.65, 0.59–0.72 in models 1, 2,
and 3, respectively) as well as pedestrian casualties (0.51, 0.45–
0.58 in models 1 and 3 and 0.52, 0.46–0.59 in model 2). In ref-
erence to street links with no bus stops, there was a lower odds
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 11

Table 3. Results of mixed effects logistic regression models examining association of odds of KSI with street level morphology, physical features and other covariates for
N D 108,333 vehicle-occupant casualties within Greater London from 2008–12.
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(Spatial scale – 400 m) (Spatial scale – 3000 m) (Spatial scale – 7500 m)
Predictors OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.)

Street link level

Morphology
Link length† 1.03 (1.00, 1.05)** 1.03 (1.00, 1.05)** 1.05 (1.02, 1.08)***
Betweenness† 1.03 (1.00, 1.05)* 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) 1.03 (1, 1.06)**
Divergence ratio† 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) 0.98 (0.95, 1.00)* 0.93 (0.91, 0.96)***
Maximum convex hull radius† 1.09 (1.06, 1.12)*** 1.07 (1.04, 1.10)*** 1.04 (1.01, 1.07)**
Physical features
Road type
Single carriageway – Reference
Dual Carriageway 0.63 (0.57, 0.69)*** 0.63 (0.58, 0.69) *** 0.64 (0.59, 0.70) ***
Others 0.69 (0.61, 0.78) *** 0.69 (0.61, 0.78) *** 0.69 (0.61, 0.78) ***
Junction type
Not at junction or within 20 m – Reference
T, Y or staggered 0.43 (0.41, 0.45) *** 0.42 (0.40, 0.45) *** 0.42 (0.40, 0.45) ***
Cross roads 0.45 (0.42, 0.49) *** 0.45 (0.42, 0.49) *** 0.45 (0.42, 0.49) ***
Others 0.46 (0.42, 0.50) *** 0.46 (0.42, 0.50) *** 0.46 (0.42, 0.50) ***
Pedestrian crossing facilities
No crossing facility within 50 m – Reference
Pedestrian phase at traffic signal junction 0.87 (0.80, 0.94) *** 0.86 (0.80, 0.93) *** 0.87 (0.80, 0.94) ***
Zebra 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) *** 0.87 (0.78, 0.96) ** 0.87 (0.79, 0.97) **
Others 0.96 (0.87, 1.06) 0.96 (0.87, 1.06) 0.96 (0.87, 1.06)
20 mile zones (Yes vs. No) 0.66 (0.59, 0.73) *** 0.67 (0.60, 0.74) *** 0.65 (0.59, 0.72) ***
Number of bus stops (1 vs. 0) 0.70 (0.66, 0.74) *** 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) *** 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) ***
Number of bus stops (>1 vs. 0) 0.63 (0.59, 0.67) *** 0.63 (0.59, 0.68) *** 0.63 (0.59, 0.68) ***
Traffic volume
Taxis and cars† 0.82 (0.76, 0.89) *** 0.83 (0.76, 0.89) *** 0.84 (0.78, 0.91) ***
Coaches and LGVs† 1.21 (1.13, 1.30) *** 1.18 (1.10, 1.27) *** 1.16 (1.08, 1.25) ***
Heavy vehicles† 1.04 (0.99, 1.08) 1.05 (1.00, 1.09) ** 1.04 (1, 1.09)*
Neighborhood level
Population density† 0.96 (0.94, 0.99)** 0.97 (0.94, 1.00) ** 0.96 (0.94, 0.99)**
Deprivation – Living environment† 1.14 (1.11, 1.18) *** 1.13 (1.09, 1.17) *** 1.12 (1.08, 1.16) ***
Casualty level
Passenger vs. Driver/rider 0.39 (0.36, 0.41) *** 0.39 (0.36, 0.41) *** 0.39 (0.36, 0.41) ***
Age

20 years – Reference
21–35 years 0.29 (0.28, 0.31) *** 0.29 (0.28, 0.31) *** 0.29 (0.28, 0.31) ***
36–45 years 0.28 (0.26, 0.30) *** 0.28 (0.26, 0.30) *** 0.28 (0.26, 0.30) ***
46–60 years 0.29 (0.27, 0.31) *** 0.29 (0.27, 0.31) *** 0.29 (0.27, 0.31) ***
> 60 years 0.47 (0.43, 0.51) *** 0.47 (0.43, 0.51) *** 0.47 (0.43, 0.51) ***
Female) 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) *** 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) *** 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) ***
Day of week (weekends vs. weekdays) 0.80 (0.76, 0.85) *** 0.80 (0.76, 0.85) *** 0.80 (0.76, 0.85) ***
Random effects
Between link variance (S.E.) 0.43 (0.05) 0.42 (0.05) 0.43 (0.05)
Between LSOA variance (S.E.) 0.13 (0.02) 0.14 (0.02) 0.13 (0.02)
Model statistic
-2*Log likelihood 66775.88 66797.1 66792.38

p
0.01.

p
0.05.

p
0.10.
y
z-score.

545 of casualty severity in those with one (0.76, 0.73–0.80; 0.77,
0.73–0.81 and 0.77, 0.74–0.81 for models 1, 2, and 3, respec-
tively) or more than one bus stops (0.69, 0.65–0.73 in model 1
and 0.70, 0.66–0.74 in models 2 and 3). Similar significant asso-
ciations were observed for individual vehicle-user and pedes-
550 trian casualties.
With respect to traffic volume, density of cars and taxis was
associated with lower odds of being KSI in our all-casualties
models (0.81, 0.77–0.86 in models 1 and 2 and 0.82, 0.78–0.87
in model 3). The effects were similar in the case vehicular KSIs.
555 However, in the case of pedestrian casualties, density of cars
was consistently associated with higher odds of KSI (1.06, 1.02–
1.10; 1.05, 1.01–1.10; 1.06, 1.02–1.10 in models 1, 2, and 3,
respectively). A significantly higher odds of casualty severity
was associated with increments in density of coaches and LGVs
(1.30, 1.24–1.37; 1.29, 1.23–1.35 and 1.28, 1.22–1.35 for models 560
1, 2, and 3, respectively). In the case of pedestrian casualties,
similar significant associations were observed between odds of
being KSI and the density of coaches and LGVs (1.09, 1.05–
1.13 for model 1; 1.07, 1.03–1.11 for models 2 and 3).
Among the LSOA neighborhood-level variables, population 565
density was associated with lower odds of being KSI for all-
casualties (0.96, 0.94–0.99 for models 1 and 2 and 0.95, 0.94–
0.98 for model 3). Population density had a protective effect in
the case of vehicular KSI, however, the results were not signifi-
cant for pedestrian casualties. Among the indicators of depriva- 570
tion, living in deprived LSOA neighborhoods with respect to
living environment was associated with significantly higher
 12 C. SARKAR ET AL.

Table 4. Results of mixed effects logistic regression models examining association of odds of KSI with street level morphology, physical features, and other covariates for
N D 24,741 pedestrian casualties within Greater London from 2008–12.
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(Spatial scale – 400 m) (Spatial scale – 3000 m) (Spatial scale – 7500 m)
Predictors OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.) OR (95% C.I.)

Street link level

Morphology
Betweenness† 1.05 (1.01, 1.08)*** 1.04 (1.00, 1.08)** 1.05 (1.01, 1.09)**
Divergence ratio† 1.06 (1.02, 1.10)*** 0.97 (0.94, 1.01) 0.95 (0.91, 0.99)**
Maximum convex hull radius† 1.12 (1.08, 1.16)*** 1.10 (1.05, 1.14)*** 1.07 (1.03, 1.12)***
Physical features
Road type
Single carriageway – Reference
Dual Carriageway 0.93 (0.8, 1.07) 0.96 (0.83, 1.10) 0.96 (0.83, 1.10)
Others 0.73 (0.6, 0.89)*** 0.74 (0.61, 0.91)*** 0.74 (0.61, 0.90)***
Junction type
Not at junction or within 20 m – Reference
T, Y or staggered 0.48 (0.45, 0.51)*** 0.48 (0.45, 0.51)*** 0.48 (0.45, 0.51) ***
Cross roads 0.46 (0.41, 0.51)*** 0.47 (0.42, 0.52)*** 0.47 (0.42, 0.52) ***
Others 0.53 (0.46, 0.61)*** 0.53 (0.46, 0.61)*** 0.53 (0.46, 0.61) ***
Pedestrian crossing facilities
No crossing facility within 50 m – Reference
Pedestrian phase at traffic signal junction 0.94 (0.85, 1.04) 0.93 (0.84, 1.03) 0.94 (0.85, 1.04)
Zebra 0.83 (0.74, 0.93)*** 0.84 (0.76, 0.94)*** 0.85 (0.77, 0.95)**
Others 0.97 (0.87, 1.08) 0.96 (0.86, 1.07) 0.96 (0.86, 1.08)
20 mile zones (Yes vs. No) 0.51 (0.45, 0.58)*** 0.52 (0.46, 0.59)*** 0.51 (0.45, 0.58) ***
Number of bus stops (1 vs. 0) 0.67 (0.62, 0.72)*** 0.67 (0.62, 0.73)*** 0.68 (0.63, 0.74) ***
Number of bus stops (>1 vs. 0) 0.61 (0.56, 0.66)*** 0.61 (0.56, 0.66)*** 0.62 (0.57, 0.67) ***
Traffic volume
Taxis and cars† 1.06 (1.02, 1.10)*** 1.05 (1.01, 1.10)** 1.06 (1.02, 1.10)**
Coaches and LGVs† 1.09 (1.05, 1.13)*** 1.07 (1.03, 1.11)*** 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) ***
Neighborhood level
Deprivation – Living environment† 1.12 (1.07, 1.16)*** 1.10 (1.06, 1.14)*** 1.09 (1.04, 1.13) ***
Casualty level
Age

20 years – Reference
21–35 years 0.52 (0.48, 0.57)*** 0.52 (0.48, 0.57)*** 0.52 (0.48, 0.56) ***
36–45 years 0.52 (0.47, 0.58)*** 0.52 (0.47, 0.58)*** 0.52 (0.47, 0.58) ***
46–60 years 0.66 (0.6, 0.72)*** 0.66 (0.59, 0.72)*** 0.65 (0.59, 0.72) ***
> 60 years 1.12 (1.02, 1.24)** 1.11 (1.01, 1.23)** 1.11 (1.01, 1.22)**
Gender (Male vs. Female) 0.78 (0.73, 0.82)*** 0.78 (0.73, 0.82)*** 0.78 (0.73, 0.82) ***
Day of week (weekends vs. weekdays) 0.94 (0.87, 1.00)* 0.94 (0.87, 1.01)* 0.94 (0.87, 1.01)*
Day light (No vs. Yes) 1.31 (1.22, 1.40)*** 1.31 (1.22, 1.40)*** 1.31 (1.22, 1.4) ***
Random effects
Between link variance (S.E.) 0.05 (0.07 ) 0.07 (0.07) 0.06 (0.07)
Between LSOA variance (S.E.) 0.11 (0.03 ) 0.12 (0.03) 0.12 (0.03)
Model statistic
¡2*Log likelihood 25641.12 25653.74 25659.84

p
0.01.

p
0.05.

p
0.10.
y
z-score.

odds of casualty fatality (1.09, 1.06–1.12; 1.07, 1.04–1.10 and
1.06, 1.03–1.10 in models 1, 2, and 3, respectively). Similarly,
575 living environment deprivation was associated with signifi-
cantly higher odds of vehicular KSI (1.14, 1.11–1.18; 1.13, 1.09–
1.17; 1.12, 1.08–1.16 in models 1, 2, and 3, respectively). Similar
significant associations were obtained between pedestrian KSI
and living-environment deprivation (1.12, 1.07–1.16; 1.10,
580 1.06–1.14 and 1.09, 1.04–1.13 in models 1, 2, and 3,
respectively).
Discussion
The study is the first of its kind to examine the associations of
accident casualty severity with detailed and objectively mea-
585 sured multi-scale street-link level urban form metrics, traffic
volume, and street-level physical features after adjusting for a
range of neighborhood- and casualty-level factors.
Consistent with the hypothesis first posed by Tripp in the
1930s, street morphology and design (modeled in terms of
betweenness, divergence ratio, and hull radius measured at 590
three scales of 400, 3000, and 7500 m) and traffic volume were
found to be significantly associated with the odds of being
killed and seriously injured in a traffic-related accident (KSI).
At a neighborhood-level, population density, deprivation of liv-
ing environment and access to services remained the significant 595
predictors after controlling for individual causality variables
and network morphology variables. To our knowledge, these
are novel findings, with the potential to guide urban policy
interventions.
Interpretation 600
The associations between street network morphometrics and
accident severity can be interpreted in terms of design and

momentum effects at differential geographical scales. In our
models, all-casualties and vehicle-occupant casualties, link
605 length was associated with higher odds of casualty severity
because longer links are generally associated with higher traffic
speeds. Previous studies have also found a positive association
between street section length and casualty counts (Abdel-Aty &
Radwan, 2000; Anastasopoulos & Mannering, 2009). Between-
610 ness was consistently associated with higher odds of accident
severity in the models involving all-casualty as well as vehicle-
user and pedestrian casualties. The strength of the associations
slightly increased slightly from a local scale of 400 m to a city
scale of 7500 m in the all-casualty models. Betweenness is a net-
615 work measure of centrality that can be taken as a proxy for
through-movement flowing through a link. The higher the
betweenness index of a street link, the greater the path overlap
of journeys through it and hence more through movement.
The measure thus acts as a predictor of traffic density, mass
620 and speed as well as the degree of community severance, more
so at a city scale of 7500 m. In the case of casualties involving
driver, rider, and passengers of vehicles, there was a 4% incre-
ment in KSI at a scale of 7500 m while for pedestrian casualties,
the odds were greater at 7%. Mean divergence ratio (MDR) acts
625 as a predictor of route sinuosity or twistiness, associated with
higher angular friction cost of travelling. At a local scale of
400 m, a higher MDR was associated with 6% increase in odds
of being KSI for pedestrian casualties. At this scale, a higher
MDR is associated with greater intersection density and hence
630 not conducive to walking. Furthermore, some residential street
segments may be prone to a higher proportion of rat runs,
where traffic cascades through a local network during peak
hours and reduces pedestrian safety. On the contrary, on the
city scale of 7500 m at which most heavy vehicles travel, we
635 postulate that a higher MDR acts as a speed barrier for heavy
vehicles and hence the observed 5% reduction in odds of severe
or fatal casualty in our pedestrian model. Similar trend was
observed in the all-casualty and vehicle-user casualty models. A
higher maximum convex hull radius at a local residential scale
640 of 400 m was associated with higher odds of KSI incidents. A
street link with a larger value of MCHR indicates the presence
of at least one long and unhindered route connecting it with
the wider urban network. At a walkable scale this may entail a
greater exposure of pedestrians to vehicular flows in their local
645 high streets and hence the observed high casualty severity. At
the wider scale of 3000 and 7500 m, which captures the influ-
ence of vehicular flows, similar significant effects of MCHR
were observed, albeit with reduced magnitude. The relative
dilution of the negative impact of MCHR as we move from
650 local to city scale may point to the corresponding transition in
risk exposures; from pedestrian–vehicular interactions at resi-
dential scale of 400 m to purely vehicular interactions at a city-
scale of 7500 m. The negative effects remain consistent in our
all-casualty, vehicular, and pedestrian casualty models with
655 more pronounced negative effects observed among pedestrians.
These results demonstrate the significance of topological
information contained within a graph-model of a street net-
work, as well as exemplifying the role of geographical scale in
understanding patterns of accident causality severity. In con-
660 trast to the traditionally used measures of intersection density
and connectivity (Ladr
on de Guevara et al., 2004), sDNA-based
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION 13
morphometrics are inherently more dynamic and objective;
being able to append a modeled value of a specific morphomet-
ric variable to each link in the street network as well as captur-
ing simultaneously the impacts of multiple geographical scales 665
on accident severity. The results lead us to believe that neigh-
borhood-level road retrofitting, design interventions and other
forms of traffic control mechanisms should give due credence
to city and regional level morphology and design and vice versa.
Among the variables of street-link level physical attributes, 670
dual carriageways, junctions as well as the existence of pedes-
trian crossing facilities were all associated with lower odds of
casualty severity/fatality. The results are along the expected
lines and point to the accrued benefits of traffic safety attained
via reductions in traffic volume, vehicular momentum as well 675
as presence of pedestrian aids. The study reported a significant
preventive effect of traffic control intervention in the form of
20-MPH zones reporting 35–36%, 33–35%, and 48–49% lower
odds of being KSI within the zones for all-casualties, vehicular
occupant, and pedestrian casualties, respectively. Our findings 680
are consistent with another recent London study (Grundy
et al., 2009) and can be interpreted as being the result of conse-
quent reductions in both volume and momentum (both vehicu-
lar mass and velocity) and the accrued benefits in terms of
traffic safety and reductions in congestion. The preventive 685
impact of one or more bus stops adjacent to the street link on
accident severity can be explained via its role in reducing traffic
speeds. The existence of bus bays near bus stops has the func-
tional role of segregating buses within the bays, thereby
enhancing safety by minimizing congestion interferences. The 690
density of bus stops adjacent to a street link may have a more
nuanced effect though, acting as a proxy for increased fre-
quency of pedestrian aids as well as more enhanced traffic
calming interventions. Previously, intersections having bus
stops with bays have been reported to be associated with reduc- 695
tions in casualty counts (Chin & Quddus, 2003).
Among the traffic volume variables, the density of heavy
vehicles (coaches and LGVs) was consistently associated with
higher odds of severe or fatal casualty owing to momentum
effects and the corresponding risks of collision at significantly 700
higher mass and speed. However, the results for density of cars
and taxis were contrary to expectations, a higher density being
associated with lower odds of KSI incident for our all-casualties
and vehicular casualty models. In these sets of models, com-
prising predominantly vehicular casualties, the density of cars 705
and taxis may capture the unmeasured effects of urban centers
of London with well-designed layout, traffic controls, and regu-
lated driving behavior. For pedestrian casualties however, the
density of cars and taxis was associated with higher odds of
severe/fatal casualties, presumably owing to momentum effects. 710
Among the neighborhood level variables, the protective
association between population density and casualty KSI was
observed only in our all-casualties and vehicle-occupant casu-
alty models. This may be interpreted in terms of prevailing
rigid traffic control interventions to regulate both volume and 715
speed as well as existing pedestrian facilities in urban centers of
high density. Higher densities may also act as a proxy for more
efficient street layouts installed to cope with a higher land use
mix and concentrated development in a mature and well-
formed city like London. Similar associations have been 720
 14 C. SARKAR ET AL.
previously reported in the case of crash frequencies (Graham &
Glaister, 2003; Noland & Quddus, 2004). As per our expecta-
tions, the study captured significant negative effects of neigh-
borhood level deprivation on KSI incidents. The odds of KSI
725 incidents were higher in LSOA neighborhoods with poorer liv-
ing environments as well as those with reduced access to basic
services (significant in in our all-casualties model). This may be
attributed to poor street level design, lack of pedestrian facili-
ties, exposure to unsafe traffic characteristics and greater con-
730 centrations of children, young people and unemployed
spending time on the streets and a higher incidence of more
risky behavior. This interpretation is supported by a recent
London study highlighting that distance from the site of a casu-
alty to home location tended to be much lower in more
735 deprived neighborhoods (Steinbach et al., 2013). It is thus more
likely that the individuals involved in casualties in deprived
neighborhoods also reside within them and are exposed to the
underlying traffic risks inherent in them. Our results resonate
well with previous findings (Grayling et al., 2002; Morency
740 et al., 2012; Noland & Quddus, 2004).
Strengths and limitations
The strengths of the study include the application of objective
measures of urban morphometrics at multiple spatial scales of
urban movement; the measurement of urban design and physi-
745 cal features at the street link on which a casualty incidence
occurred; use of multilevel analyses for clustered data; adjust-
ments for individual casualty level covariates; and a large-sam-
ple size. The application of network analysis (implemented via
sDNA) generated measures of morphometrics at the street-link
750 unit of analysis to produce a precise and objective way of cap-
turing key morphological attributes of urban layout and design.
In contrast to conventional measures of street connectivity
such as intersection density, which do not take account of a
location’s overall systemic centrality, sDNA measures street
755 network geometric, and topological attributes in the context of
a chosen subset of the city network (defined by radius R), which
captures connectivity for a specific mode of travel. The meas-
ures of betweenness, divergence ratio, and hull radius were
measured for each of 516,439 street network (ITN) links and
760 linked to geo-coded casualty incidents. As demonstrated, these
morphometrics can be modeled at multiple spatial scales. Our
study was able to isolate the impact of spatial scales on casualty
severity risks. In contrast to most existing ecological studies
which generally aggregate street level design variables to a
765 neighborhood such as census block group or TAZs (Marshall &
Garrick, 2011; Wang et al., 2013), all of our morphometrics as
well as physical features have been measured for each of the
geocoded casualty incidence road links. A street link unit of
spatial analysis removes the modifiable areal unit problem bias,
770 allowing us greater confidence in our conclusions about individ-
ual casualties, compared to aggregate studies.
The application of a three-level hierarchical model with
individual casualties clustered within street links and street
links within LSOA neighborhoods gave due consideration to
775 the inherent hierarchical structure of the road casualty data
(Jones & Jørgensen, 2003). Our study estimated 11.9% residual
variation in casualty severity arising from intra-level correla-
tions at the street link and LSOA neighborhood levels.
As with any road casualty data, a limitation of the study is
the potential under-reporting of traffic casualties in the 780
STAT19 dataset (Ward et al., 2006). The STAT19 dataset is
prone to under-reporting especially for slight injury crashes.
Under-reporting also varies by road user groups with the vehi-
cle occupants being the most under-reported group. Although
our study employed a large sample of casualty records (N > 785
143,000) collected over a 5-year duration, nonetheless, bias on
account of under-reporting cannot be ruled out. Temporal mis-
match is another issue which might have affected our results.
The study reports casualty records covering the period 2008–
2012. We were however able to adjust for link-level traffic vol- 790
ume from the LEGGI database estimated over the period 2008–
2011. Although our study was able to adjust for traffic control
interventions via 20-MPH zones, future studies should also
adjust for other safety interventions such as presence of speed
cameras. Apart for detailed street design, future studies on traf- 795
fic accident casualties might also adjust for behavioral factors
such as alcohol consumption and seat-belt usage as well as
other localized spatial policies such as traffic calming
interventions.
Conclusion 800
The evidence presented in the study has demonstrated that
detailed and objective measures of urban morphology and
design were associated with street accident severity subsequent
to adjustments for other related predictors including physical
features of streets, traffic volume, and neighborhood-level dep- 805
rivation. Street link length, betweenness, and maximum convex
hull area were associated with higher odds of KSI at all the three
spatial scales (ranging from micro- through meso- and macro-
scales). Divergence ratio was associated with higher odds of
KSI at the micro-scale, while at meso- and macro-scales it had 810
a protective effect on KSI. Our study contributes toward identi-
fying plausible causal pathways from built environment design
and management attributes (measured at the street level) to
“killed and seriously injured” (KSI) traffic accident outcomes.
The impacts are primarily mediated by traffic volume, vehicular 815
momentum and pedestrian behavior and have multiple policy
implications.
Our study has the potential to contribute towards the crea-
tion of safe and sustainable transport systems. Evidences of the
relationships between underlying street form and casualty 820
severity can be employed by transport planners in developing
preventive interventions in the form of alternate traffic flow
and circulation models to reduce risks in hotspot zones.
Design-level interventions towards reducing casualties via
street-level retrofitting should give due credence to the poten- 825
tial impacts at multiple urban scales and should be coordinated
with traffic-related interventions. This will entail close collabo-
ration between transport planners, engineers, and urban
designers. From a public health perspective, future studies
should focus on ascertaining the causality of various forms of 830
severe injuries and fatalities sustained. Studies will benefit from
more effective coupling between road accident databases, built
environment databases and health service and hospital trauma

records comprising precise anatomical descriptions of injuries
835 sustained in accidents in terms of their nature, occurrence, and
severity (Lyons et al., 2008; Ward et al., 2002). Optimizing
urban design for healthy cities is much more possible now than
in Tripp’s day (Sarkar, Webster and Gallacher, 2014). The data
and geo-information sciences are in place to optimize urban
840 morphology toward selective territorial enclosures and risk
minimization (Friedmann & Weaver, 1979; Glasze et al., 2004)
in respect to injury, disease, emergency response, primary and
hospital services and, of course, accident prevention. In an era
of big data, our study shows that ready availability of large
845 multi-sector and spatially referenced data can act as a unifying
platform toward deciphering underlying evidence-base as the
boundaries between transport, urban, environmental, and
health geographies get fuzzier.
Acknowledgments
850 The study was funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council
(ESRC, grant number ES/L003201/1) under its Transformative Research
scheme. The authors wish to thank Department of Transport and Trans-
port for London for the accident casualty datasets, UK Ordnance Survey
for the OS Mastermap ITN datasets.
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