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    Flores and Nooruddin 2016 Chapter2

    Uploaded by

    papi K

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 17
    Elections in Hard Times Building Stronger Democracies in the 21* Century THOMAS EDWARD FLORES AND IRFAN NOORUDDIN published in asacacion with Wilson Comer Pes, Washington, DC 2) why Have Elections Failed to Deliver? An Answer Chaps 1 decries troubling rend the demecraiing power of lectins rapidly dteoeated afce the beginning of the sectoral oom in the Ite 1980s, This letra! shores is no small cause for concert foe plitalsentists and poymaken. One need look no further than Eyes troubled recent history foe a istration Democracy promoters cheered as Egyptians staged mass pots in Tair Squace in 2011, levding to the ovethiow of longtime dit tor Hosni Mubarak, Hlstions followed about ffeen months later, bringing to power » government led by the Muslim Broterbood's Mohamed Mori. Yet the democratic momentum quickly reversed ‘Mois sted a desertion prohibiting challenges to presidential decrees. Libera! groups abandoned the covsivent sembly tasked with wring 2 ew constiation, complaining that i intended ahve lamic peace into La Stet protests demaning Moras resignation pesaged a multary coup in 2013, which ousted Mors from power only one year afer hs eetion. A ew, ess teanspar- nc eeston in May 2014 installed the architect of that coup, General ‘Abdel Fcc Ss as president, with a suspicious 97 percent ofthe Our crosmtonal evidence and Fey's troubled pos-Tahrr his tory force at 0 confront ovo dficat goestons. Fit, why did ‘esions yield salle democratic dividends inthe 1990s and 20008? Sccond, why have some countries reaped the proposed bene of decons, wile others have not? “This chapter offers answers to these questions, beginning with « trie intelectual history of academe thought on democratization Poll scientists long relegated lectins tothe backzound of theo ries of democatc change, ewig them as ancy to either read structural wansfonmation oalitenegotaions arr the polit fatre ‘This all changed inthe 20005, e scholars eimai eetons as Why Have Elections Failed to Deliver? An Anscer w@ fash points upon which the political frre crvially depend. Ad ‘ater of democratization by letons found that repented lesions incubate demacatc governance. Other scholars disagreed, however, Finding that lection may cause political lene or serve a ages of authoritarian contol Sl ther scholars split the diference, ontend- ing tha faure democratic change hinges om the net of etions- “Thus the ls fiteen years have peed new understandings of how lectins promote democracy. Yet many questions remain A pers teat and unfortunate lation ofeleoral and sratural approaches to understanding poical change is the pine culprit, We sck to integrate these approaches 0 understand eectoeal st ‘ess and file. The conceptval miles of cr approach ithe reengniton tht elections ose notin a vacuum, but im diverse tae turd contexts We concentrate on three forme of legitimacy that Pula alert whe they win clesons contingens, performance, {nd democeaticinstntonal Plans enjoy contingent leicmacy Aer winning eletons, which ceases with the autheticy of that ‘lection. Sich legitimacy is shoreived, however, since sel iterested ‘orers demand esonomnic growth asa price for their conned sop- por. The depths of performance and democraticinstutona leit= Inacy condition poicianr path to resecson. Wher performance legitimacy already exists, incumbents provide public poods aad un ‘on thei ecrde. Similan, when democratic insiaionalleimacy isdeep,icumbents ae contained from manipulitiag eles tothe advantage. The absence of performance and demccratcnstewonal Ieitinncy, however, neces anos cynical path to selection cients, coruption, and repression. The reused democ- ‘atization, here societies become caught in a low-legiimacy wap of ‘increasingly problematic elections, poor sate performance, and disa fected vores. This logic leads us to bypothesz tha lectins will be ‘nore likely to spar democratic change when a county has ongee snd more recent experience with demoeracy, plieal leaders hate sees to more fica space, and national polit have been more pect ctions om the Road to Democracy? The return of democracy to Southern Europe and Latin America in the 1970s and 1980s inaugurated an ileal fee pio for 8 From Elections to Democracy: Theory and Evidence the sudy of comparative democratization, which the liberalization ‘of Eastern Europe atthe end ofthe Cold War ony intensified. One ‘consequence of ths netltionship beeen world events ad shol- fry ingiry has ben the redefinition of elections eon the cnclasion ‘OF demecratc rastons to the impetus forthe tasions, Yet Jan Teorllcharaceries the study of comparative democeaizaion 4s “inchoate, divered and inoerent."™ Our own view ofthe eld is moce sanguine, bu we concur that scholars contnae to dsgree profoundly noconly aver the role of eleesons in democratiation, bat also oa the more fandamsatl question of he role of lectins vert poll structures ia political change. We review this hat here. TO ‘accompany our discussion, we sketch the developmen of the Bld in Tigre 21, hich shows bow diferent lines of ngury have developed Democratication by (Legitimate) Elections For thst years beeween the ely 1970s a ery 2000s, pic scietists seeking wo uncover the causes of democratization regarded cletions as the culmination, ater than she stimula, of «proces of ‘democratization. Dankware Ruston, for astunce, envisioned thee ‘phase transon from diaorship ro democracy Fist, a prepacatory phase would hen with srl becreen sompeting societal groupe perhaps along as lines. Second hese strgues would erate a det som phase is which polical eles resolve conflicts between bat fn Sftliners and opt fr democratic change. Theda habituation phase would wines deepening aceepeance and support forthe new Aemocetic regime. Only in ths lst phase would regula elections ‘commence. To illustrate the insignificance of elections to Rust, the ‘word *clstion” appears in his acl only thre tne, compaced to roughly venty times in he intone thi chaps TRascow's theory of democrate tansions represented a dramatic eparture from modemization theory, which bad emphasized how lnojr soionconomie changes would presage democratization, Ke Deutsch for instance, proposed that rang incomes, the expansion fof exposure to mass eed, and uchanization would cliate in ‘widening of politcal participation Econom development special role in such theories, a8 mndeesization ont hyp lh EL eepmane it: Figur2.1 oor a structural aeons of dena change hae tenet deelap separately 30 From Elctions to Democracy: Theory and Evidence that economic growth, clave equal, andthe creation af a mid- «de cass would create propitious condions fr democracy.’ Despite these diferences, however, modernization theory and the incipient demwerasie transitions Ieature had one important aspect in com ‘moni nether envisioned cletions ax progenitors of democratization ederization theory did concentate on expanions of what Deis talled the “pital relevant sata of soy,” but sae democracy 2 the natal outgrowth of imponane structural changes and thooght Tie of elections a al Ruswow's understanding of democratic eamsitions soon became synonymous with the study of comparative democratiation athe Third Wave of democracy grined momentum, 4 tend which we

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