GENN 210

Risk Management and Environment

Lecture 5
Preliminary Risk Assessment
Cairo University – Faculty of Engineering
Credit Hour System
Summer 2019
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Risk Management

1. System Definition

Risk Assessment

2. Hazard Identification: sources, hazard, FE

Risk Analysis

3. Risk Estimation: determining p & s

4. Risk Evaluation: determining rank of risk

5. Risk Control
2
Risk Assessment Methods

3
 Risk Assessment

Identification Estimation Evaluation

• PRA • Risk matrix

Frequency Consequences
• FMECA assessment assessment • F-N curve
• HAZOP • Risk profile
• HAZID • Historical records • Source term models • Risk isopath
• Literature search • Fault tree analysis • Atmospheric • Risk density curve
• What-if review • Event tree analysis dispersion models • Risk index
• Safety audit • Human reliability • Blast and thermal
analysis radiation models
• Walk-through
• Checklist • Common cause • Aquatic transport

• Brainstorming failure analysis models

• Effect models
PRA: Preliminary Risk Assessment
FMECA: Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis • Mitigation models
HAZOP: HAZard and OPerability study 4
HAZID: HAZard IDentification
Preliminary Risk Assessment

The main aims of the PRA are:

• To identify the different elements and the dangerous
situations presented in the system.
• To watch out for their capability of initiating an
accident according to their existence or mistreating.
• To evaluate the risk resulting from the action.
• To put control actions to decrease their risks.

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Preliminary Risk Assessment (cont.)

In order to identify the dangerous elements and the

dangerous situations, the analyst is helped by
checklists.

These checklists should be adapted for each case and

made according to similar situations or in a way that
serves the required study or the required analysis.

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 Preliminary Risk Assessment

Rough estimate of steps 1 through 5

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 Step 1 : System definition (use form)
Elements of the Risk Systems (Sources of Hazards)
0 Humans & Assets Actions, Culture Environment
Creatures

1 Humans Equipment Use Internal

2 Employees Buildings Design Air

3 Contractors Tools Handling Water

4 Visitors Computers Cleaning of work

5 Neighbors Machines Driving Social nature

6 … .. … …
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Step 2 : Hazard identification (Use check lists)

List of Hazards (source of UE)

A. Mechanical origin
B. Electrical origin
C. Thermal, Chemical, Behavioral
E. Creatures
F. Environment, climate & nature
K. Nature of work: stress, work
M. Loss of image & trust
O. Radiation
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Steps 3&4 : Risk Assessment
Not acceptable

S4 4 8 12 16

S3 3 6 9 12
Severity

S2 2 4 6 8

S1 1 2 3 4
P1 P2 P3 P4
Acceptable Probability 10
Step 5 : Risk Control and Estimating Residual
Risk

• Control methods are chosen based on the sequence discussed in the

previous lecture:

Elimination – Substitution – Engineering controls – Administrative controls –

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) – Other methods

• The risk will still exist after applying control methods with lower rank, we call
it “Residual Risk”.

• Residual risks are estimated for each risk and tabulated in the PRA table.

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 Step or Hazard

What Can Go Wrong?

What Would Happen if

it Did?

P=Probability,
P.
S.
Risk Evaluation

S=Severity,
R.R.

What Can I do to
Prevent This?
P.
S.

Residual Risks
R.R.=Risk Ranking
A Form for Preliminary Risk Assessment (PRA)

R.R.

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Warehouse
Case Study

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Historical Data

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 Warehouse Accidents

About

10 to 25 % of
workplace injuries
occur at warehouse
loading docks.

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Source: British National Safety Council, 2002
 Forklift Fatalities 1992- 2000
120 114
105
95 96
86 89 90
75

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Warehouse Accidents

Fall, 4%
Other,
20%
Trips, 23%

Hit by moving
Handling, vehicle, 2%
38%
Hit by moving falling
object, 13%

Accidents causing over-three-day injury (2001-2002) 17

Step 1 : Defining the System
Warehouse Function

Geographical Location

Meteorological Factors

Construction Material

Handling Equipment
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Step 1 : Defining the System

Frequency of Operations

Creatures: humans, animals, insects, plants, …

Culture and History

Layout/storage specs
Material Classification
Power and water Supply
The Underground system: Water-Sewage-
Electricity, gas, openings, piping, …
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Step 1 : Defining the System

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Step 1 : Defining the System
Dimensional chart of the warehouse

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Step 1 : Defining the System
CORE SAMPLE

(SS1, …)
STORE PRODUCTION
Dividing warehouse into subsystems
CHEMICALS ROOM

SS4 SS5
SS3
GENERAL STORAGE
RUBBER
ROOM
AREA

STORAGE SHELVES
STORAGE SHELVES
OFFICE
SS1
SS2
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Step 2 : Identifying Hazards

 Identify sources of danger in each Sub-System : mechanical,

electrical, energy, …

 Tabulate findings

 Make an exhaustive list of sources of danger

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 Step 2 : Scenarios on Logical Trees

Head of the Logical

No. of Sc. Name The Target
Tree

We have Death 4 D Human

5 logical trees Injury 7 I Human

with Damage 7 A Assets

28 scenarios Emissions 3 E Environment

Bad Image 7 B Reputation

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 Step 3a : Severity Scale

S1 S2 S3 S4

Minor Significant Critical Catastrophic

Fatality or
Human First aid Injury <1 month Injury 1-6 months Permanent
disability s

Assets < 10 K L.E. 10 – 100 K L.E. 100 – 1000 K L.E. > 1000 K L.E.

Environment < 10 K L.E. 10 – 100 K L.E. 100 – 1000 K L.E. > 1000 K L.E.

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Step 3b : Probability Scale

P1 P2 P3 P4

Very Low Low Medium High

1 event/10 yr From 1event/1yr

< 1 event/ 10 yr to to > 12 event /1yr
1 event/ 1yr 12 events/ 1yr

Scales p & s are totally independent variables

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Step 4 : Evaluating Risks

D1 D2
S4 A3
D3 D4
E2 E3 E1 I6
S3 I1
Severity

A1 A7 I3
I4 I5 I2 I7
S2 I6
A4 A5 A2

S1

P1 P2 P3 P4
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Probability
Step 5 : Risk Control
Prevention Action

S4

Protection Action
S3
Severity

S2

S1

P1 P2 P3 P4
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Probability
 Example: Preliminary Risk Assessment Sheet
(PRA)
Risk
What would What can I do to Residual Risk
What can go Evaluation
Hazard happen if it prevent this?
wrong?
did? R. (control measures) R.
P S P. S.
R. R.

• Use a specially
designed
utilities (ladder,

Very High
Loading
Load falls on steps with

Low
on Injury P2 S4 P1 S1
a person rubbers, etc..)
shelves
• Put usually used
things in a low
level.
Brainstorming
Points
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Class Task

Back to your selected system

In the system you selected in the last class task, identify three
hazards and put them down in the PRA form

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 Step or Hazard

What Can Go Wrong?

P=Probability,
What Would Happen if
it Did?

P.
S.

S=Severity,
Risk Evaluation
R.R.

What Can I do to
Prevent This?
P.

R.R.=Risk Ranking
S.

Residual Risks
A Form for Preliminary Risk Assessment (PRA)

R.R.

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