Indian Economic Activity Heatmap March 2022

Industry (YoY,%) Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Rail cargo grew on back
Industry Credit NA 12.5% 9.5% 8.2% 4.1% 4.2% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% -0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% of higher loading of coal
Core Sector NA 4.4% 3.5% 4.8% 5.0% 7.8% 8.5% 10.0% 12.0% 26.8% 27.9% 20.7% 2.7% to meet the surging
power demand.
Cement Production NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.0% 584.6% 31.8%
Loan growth was in
Bitumen Consumption -1.0% 20.2% 18.7% -9.0% -18.6% 0.3% 0.2% 4.7% 4.4% -27.7% -12.1% 186.1% 72.2%
double digit in Mar as
Rail Cargo Volume 6.8% 6.5% 7.5% 7.1% 6.4% 8.5% 11.6% 18.3% 18.0% 20.8% 39.2% 70.8% 26.7% the remaining Covid
Port Traffic -3.0% 0.0% -2.6% -0.9% -0.2% 6.7% 0.6% 11.5% 6.9% 19.4% 33.1% 29.8% 17.8% curbs were done away
Coal Production -0.9% 5.8% 7.1% 4.2% 6.9% 13.3% 6.4% 18.8% 18.0% 6.3% 7.0% 9.7% 0.2% with and sentiment
Steel Production NA 9.9% 7.7% 6.0% 6.3% 8.1% 12.1% 16.2% 37.7% 35.3% 59.5% 164.6% 15.9% among businesses
improved.
IIP NA 1.9% 2.4% 1.5% 1.7% 4.9% 3.8% 12.9% 11.3% 12.6% 28.6% 136.2% 23.6%
Electricity Generation NA 4.5% 0.9% 2.8% 2.1% 3.1% 0.9% 16.0% 11.1% 8.3% 7.5% 38.6% 22.5% Services PMI further
Manufacturing PMI (Absolute) 54.0 54.9 54.0 55.5 57.6 55.9 53.7 52.3 55.3 48.1 50.8 55.5 55.4 improved to 53.6 with
the easing of Covid
restrictions across the
Services (YoY,%) Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 country. Air Traffic was
Services PMI (Absolute) 53.6 51.8 51.5 55.5 58.1 58.4 55.2 56.7 45.4 41.2 46.4 54.0 54.6 back above the 1cr
monthly run rate in
Air Passenger Traffic 36.8% -1.7% -17.1% 52.9% 65.3% 70.5% 79.3% 136.6% 137.0% 56.8% 652.7% NM 0.7%
Mar.
Rail Passenger Traffic NA 44.8% 44.4% 109.4% 210.3% 456.4% 647.5% 1048.0% 1212.6% 3470.4% NM NM -27.5%
Auto sales continue to
get impacted by supply
Demand (YoY,%) Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 side issues led by the
Personal Loans NA 19.2% 16.7% 15.9% 12.9% 13.2% 13.5% 13.6% 12.9% 11.9% 12.4% 12.8% 10.2% chip shortage. Fuel
sales rose above pre-
Housing Loan NA 9.6% 9.6% 9.2% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 8.9% 8.8% 9.6% 10.0% 9.8% 9.0%
covid levels with return
Two-Wheeler Sales -20.9% -27.3% -21.1% -10.8% -34.4% -24.9% -17.4% -14.6% -2.1% 4.2% 26.1% NM 72.7%
of mobility to pre-
Passenger Vehicle Sales -4.0% -6.5% -8.1% -13.3% -24.4% -27.1% -41.2% 7.6% 44.7% 119.3% 83.0% NM 115.6% pandemic levels. CPI
Petrol Consumption 6.2% 4.5% -5.4% 4.3% -0.7% 3.8% 6.1% 13.0% 16.4% 5.7% 12.4% 145.8% 27.1% was above the RBI’s
Diesel Consumption 6.7% -0.6% -6.4% 1.8% -7.5% -5.4% 0.4% 15.7% 11.4% -1.6% 0.7% 105.5% 27.8% target inflation range
LPG Consumption 9.7% 5.7% 3.2% -1.9% -0.4% 2.9% 4.1% 2.4% 4.6% 8.9% -6.2% -0.7% -2.0% for 3 consecutive
months. This is likely to
Natural Gas Consumption NA -0.4% 5.9% 6.1% 2.5% 0.5% 6.3% 7.2% 0.2% 3.7% 14.1% 30.5% 7.7%
prompt RBI to change
CPI 6.9% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.4% 5.3% 5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 4.2% 5.5%
its stance from
accommodative to
neutral.
Fiscal-Govt of India (YoY,%) Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21
GST collections were
Total Receipts NA 29.3% 45.8% 57.1% 66.0% 80.7% 94.4% 114.3% 193.4% 256.4% 679.8% 437.2% -3.5%
robust in Mar at Rs. 1.42
Tax Revenue (Net) NA 21.8% 40.4% 53.1% 64.9% 82.9% 100.8% 126.7% 161.0% 206.1% 590.0% 510.9% 5.0% L cr. The govt remains
GST Collections 14.7% 17.6% 15.5% 12.7% 25.3% 23.7% 22.5% 29.6% 33.1% 2.1% 65.3% 339.5% 27.0% focused on plugging the
Total Expenditure NA 11.5% 11.6% 10.6% 8.8% 9.9% 9.9% 2.3% -4.7% 0.7% -6.6% -26.2% 30.7% leakages in the system
Capital Expenditure NA 19.7% 22.0% 26.8% 13.5% 28.3% 38.3% 27.8% 14.8% 26.3% 14.0% 66.5% 26.2% and increasing
compliance. This along
with strong direct tax
External (YoY,%) Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 collections have
boosted overall tax
INR-USD (MoM) 1.7% 0.8% -1.2% 1.1% -0.6% 1.8% -0.7% -0.5% 1.3% 0.5% -1.8% 2.3% 0.0%
revenues.
Brent Crude (MoM) 19.5% 10.0% 14.4% -7.5% -3.5% 11.8% 6.2% -5.1% 8.9% 4.1% 5.5% 6.5% 10.8%
Non-Oil Imports 17.7% 27.4% 22.7% 31.3% 41.9% 48.2% 59.1% 53.7% 52.7% 92.8% 55.5% 179.7% 80.2% Global commodity
Exports (In $) 22.6% 23.8% 25.7% 39.3% 27.7% 43.2% 22.5% 46.6% 49.9% 48.4% 69.4% 195.8% 60.9% prices touched multi-
year highs in Mar on
Exports (In Rs) 28.4% 27.6% 27.9% 42.5% 28.2% 46.1% 22.7% 45.6% 48.9% 44.1% 64.0% 188.9% 57.6%
back of sanctions
Exports (In Implied Volume Terms) 17.8% 20.7% 23.9% 36.2% 27.4% 41.3% 22.7% 45.9% 50.3% 50.9% 72.7% 196.6% 64.7%
imposed on Russia and
Service Exports ($ mn) 10.1% 28.0% 57.6% 7.2% 19.0% 29.3% 19.6% 19.0% 8.7% 16.1% 3.5% 6.7% 12.6% the disruption in freight
and supply chains
stoking inflation and
prompting central banks
to tighten their easy
money policies. Exports
continued to remain
strong as India
continues to gain
market share.
Indian Economic Activity Heatmap March 2022
Note:

1. Exports Implied Volume is computed by adjusting the $ exports with the movement in INR-USD pair to remove the currency impact.
2. Data shown as NA comes with a 1-month lag. Data for a few parameters are not being published by the respective data sources.
3. Data shown as NM indicates zero base in the same month previous year due to the Covid lockdown.
4. Growth rates for the Core Sector & the Consumer Durables Production are rolling 3 Month Averages to smoothen out the wide variations in the monthly data.
5. The colour in each cell of the heatmap is determined by the 36-month range in which the data for that month appears in. The Range is as follows:

-1SD μ +1SD µ : Mean SD: Std. Deviation

Disclaimer:

Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML) is in the business of offering investments & trading in Stock and Securities through its various affiliations with Stock Exchanges. It offers
Portfolio Management Services to HNI and Corporate investors. ABM also caters to investments in Debt instruments and Mutual funds through it digital platform to
diversify asset allocation. As a depository participant, ABM has equity assets under custody worth around Rs. 25,000 crores catering to over 3 lac investors who can hold
Stocks & Securities, Mutual funds and Insurance policies in electronic form.

This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorized recipient. No part of the information must be altered,
transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these
restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell
any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements.

The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to
change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither ABML, its group companies,
its directors, associates, employees nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed
herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limited or any of its associate or group companies. The information
set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no
guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance.

Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any
type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of
and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should
therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision.

ABML, its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the
Company (ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organization
mentioned in the document or may have other interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions.

In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, ABML or any of its associates may
have managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report, or received compensation for investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report, or received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services as applicable from the subject company of this research report or the Subject Company may have been a client of ABML or its associates
during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report. ABML and it's associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the
subject company or third party in connection with the research report. The company follows employee trading policy which regulates the trading activities of the research
analyst. The company policy do not restricts the compensation of research analyst linked with the recommendations provided therein.

Securities Broking is through Aditya Birla Money Limited: SEBI Registration No. NSE/BSE/MCX/NCDEX:INZ000172636 ; NSDL /CDSL: IN-DP-17-2015. PMS - INP 000003757,
Research Analyst –INH000002145, Investment Adviser - INA000009214. Central Insurance Repository Limited: IRDA/IR2/2014/312. Investments in securities market are
subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the risk disclosure document, rights and obligations, guidance note, Do’s and
Don’ts and policies and procedure carefully before making any investment decision. Brokerage will not exceed the SEBI prescribed limit. Margins as prescribed by Exchange
/ SEBI will be applicable.