The Economist August 13th 2022 Middle East & Africa 39
clear. A study partly funded by America’s Kenya’s election
National Science Foundation found that cloudseeding boosts snowfall under the Too close to call right conditions. Studies in America, Israel and elsewhere were inconclusive. The uae hopes it works. One of the driest countries on earth, it sometimes has GATUNDU less than 100mm (four inches) of rain a The contest is going down to the wire, year. There are occasional rainy days in signalling a momentous shift winter and brief downpours in summer that break the oppressive humidity. But na ture does not provide enough water for a population of about 10m people that is still E lections in kenya tend to veer be tween emotional extremes. The one in 2002 was joyful as voters swept an opposi growing. Most drinking water comes from tion candidate to the presidency for the the sea. So much so that 14% of the world’s first time. A disputed poll in 2007 was hor desalinated water is produced in the uae. rifying: perhaps 1,400 people were killed in Climate change might supply a bit more its aftermath. The latest, on August 9th, water from the heavens. Over the New Year has unexpectedly turned into a nailbiter. weekend, parts of the uae logged as much Opinion polls in the days before the as 142mm of rain, more than a year’s worth, election suggested that Raila Odinga, a vet in just three days. Locals saw it as an auspi eran opposition leader making his fifth cious start to the year: the Prophet Muham run for president, would stroll to victory mad considered rain a blessing. with a lead of six to eight points over Wil Mind the count Summer has also brought unusual liam Ruto, the deputy president. Cynical weather, less cheerfully. Fujairah, on the sorts, influenced by Kenya’s history of iffy Mr Kenyatta holds the most famous Ki east coast, saw a freak storm in July that elections, reckoned that even if Mr Odinga kuyu surname. His father, Jomo, was an flooded houses and washed away cars. Sev lost, the establishment would fiddle the anticolonial hero who became Kenya’s en people died. Scientists say climate count in his favour. Both assumptions first president. Yet for all his pedigree, the change may have played a role. seem to be wide of the mark. president has singularly failed to deliver to Still, even a rainier uae will not be rainy In 2017 the electoral commission mud Mr Odinga the Kikuyu vote. Provisional re enough. Last year the government started dled things so badly that the Supreme sults suggest that he has won a measly 20% fiddling with drones. Instead of dropping Court ordered a rerun. Chastened, it has of the vote in Kikuyuland. chemical payloads into clouds, they deliv conducted this vote admirably. Mindful Mr Odinga’s failure to win over the Ki er an electric shock. The jolt, in theory, that delays arouse suspicion, the commis kuyu, which has turned what should have could cause droplets to clump together: sion published screenshots of results been a coronation into a tight race, is not the same result as oldfashioned cloud forms filled in by no less than 81% of its the only surprise in this contest. Perhaps seeding, but without the chemicals. 46,229 voting stations within seven hours more startling is the success of Mr Ruto in The uae insists the chemical version of the polls closing. This step has allowed winning votes in Kikuyuland, seeing that works, even if other researchers are less for much greater public scrutiny of the the International Criminal Court in The sure. For Dubai’s residents, however, the counting process. It will surely make it Hague charged him with instigating at programme has become something of a harder for the loser to cry foul. tacks in which hundreds of Kikuyus were running jest. A day at the beach ruined by a Although the official result could yet killed after the elections in 2007. (Mr Ruto freak storm is not simply bad luck; it might trigger violence, the smoothness of the has denied wrongdoing and the court has merit a complaint to the government. n process so far bolsters Kenya’s reputation since suspended its prosecution.) as east Africa’s most robust democracy. As Mr Ruto’s success among the Kikuyu strongmen elsewhere butcher constitu can be attributed partly to the disappoint tions to remain in power, Uhuru Kenyatta ment many feel about how the president has become Kenya’s third president in a acquitted himself in office. In particular, row to respect a twoterm limit. Mr Kenyatta has struggled to shake off per Despite Kenya’s improving electoral ceptions that he faced a conflict of interest performance, its political system seems to since his family has huge commercial in be ailing, corroded by a selfserving and terests, encompassing everything from unaccountable ruling class. If anyone had dairy farming to tourism and banks. “We seemed to stand valiantly outside it, Mr are ruled by the richest man in the country Odinga was the man. In previous elections and yet we are still poor,” says Mwangi he ran as the main opposition candidate, Githinji, a lorry driver in Gatundu, the Ken being beaten into second place each time yatta family’s home town. in contests that did not always look free If Mr Ruto wins it will signal a momen and fair. This time he changed his tactics tous shift in Kenya’s politics, which have by allying himself with Mr Kenyatta. long been sullied by ethnicity. Mr Ruto has It seemed like a winning strategy. Mr campaigned to persuade Kikuyus to forget Odinga, in effect, gained the benefits of in about the past by tapping into fresh griev cumbency. The harassment his supporters ances. Presenting himself as the champion once experienced at police hands was visit of the poor, he won support from have ed on his opponent’s instead. Above all, the nots across the country. For the first time, a president’s endorsement was expected to Kenyan election has been fought—and give him the support of the Kikuyu, Ken may indeed be won—as much on class as Dubai loves to be drenched ya’s largest ethnic group. on ethnic lines. n
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