Breakfast with Bancolombia

Equities Bancolombia – Tables & Graphics

Economic, Industry and Market Research July 2, 2020
 Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equity Market
COLCAP Index Performance LATAM Markets Permormance*

1.800
YTD 1 YR
INDEX Close 1 Day YTD 1 YR
1.700 USD USD
1.600
COLCAP 1.110 -0,2% -33,2% -41,1% -28,1% -38,0%
1.500
1.400 BOVESPA 96.203 1,2% -16,8% -37,3% -4,4% -31,3%
1.300
1.200 IPSA 4.037 2,0% -13,6% -20,1% -19,4% -32,6%
1.100
SPBLPGPT 16.724 -0,9% -18,8% -23,7% -19,3% -24,8%
1.000
900 MEXBOL 37.620 -0,3% -13,8% -28,6% -13,4% -27,6%
800
Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
*To last night’s closing level

Colcap vs Andean Region Colcap vs Bovespa & Mexbol

Colcap IPSA SPBLPGPT Colcap Bovespa Mexbol

120 130
120
110
110
100
100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

COLCAP Top Advancers* COLCAP Top Decliners*

Equity Closing Price Daily Variation Equity Closing Price Daily Variation

Grupo Argos pref 7.950 3,9% Grupo Argos ord 9.750 -1,5%
Promigas 6.740 3,7% ISA 18.560 -1,3%
Avianca 205 2,5% Grupo Sura ord 18.440 -1,1%
Bogota 61.720 2,0% Celsia 4.075 -1,0%
Éxito 10.180 1,8% Davivienda 27.740 -0,9%

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

*To last night’s closing level *To last night’s closing level
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equity Market
REPOS and total shares outstanding of the underlying
Balance in REPOS on local shares
stock

1.760 Number of Shares

Equity %
Shares in Repos Outstanding
1.560
GRUPOARGOS 5.227.928 645.400.000 0,8%
1.360 CORFICOLCF 1.989.509 279.912.944 0,7%
Billions COP

CEMARGOS 8.164.283 1.151.672.310 0,7%

1.160
PFAVAL 42.528.748 7.143.227.185 0,6%
960 NUTRESA 2.068.042 460.123.458 0,4%
760 GRUPOSURA 1.113.266 469.037.260 0,2%
BCOLOMBIA 965.174 509.704.584 0,2%
560
PFBCOLOM 832.256 452.122.416 0,2%
360 CELSIA 1.754.896 1.069.972.554 0,2%
Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-20 GEB 6.834.043 9.181.177.017 0,1%
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

Placing our Coverage Universe Under Review

• Taking into account the movements in financial markets in recent weeks, as well as the impact that the covid-19 will have on the global
economy, we have decided to put all our assets under review today, since none will be immune to negative shocks that may arise in their
capital structure or in the evolution of their respective businesses.

• Currently we are modeling each business and company with their particularities, as well as changing our methodology for the use of the
discount rate, since the movements in expansive monetary policy of most countries, and the increase in country risk given the conjuncture in
oil prices and the covid-19, suggest a change in the risk structure of financial markets, at least in the short and medium term.

• We expect to publish in the coming weeks the update report of our coverage universe, specifying by company the changes made in the
valuation models, in the discount rate and in the recommendation and target price. Likewise, you will find the investment thesis that supports
the view of the asset.
 Breakfast with Bancolombia
Local Equity Market

Performance Multiples
Closing
Mkt Cap Volume % 1 YR ADTV
Index(Stock Price PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
(US$ mn) (US$) Volume 12 52 Weeks 52 Weeks (US$)
(COP) 1 Day YTD
Months Min Max
2019 2020E 2019 2020E
COLCAP 1.110 64.860 8.729,98 - -0,2% -33,2% -28,1% 880,7 1.681,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Avianca Holdings PF* 205 55 34.330 0,3% 2,5% -88,8% -86,3% 30,0 2.120,0 9,0 3,0 5,3 5,3 291.627,0
Bancolombia 24.000 6.293 435.502 4,4% 0,0% -45,5% -37,7% 17.316,8 44.514,9 9,5 7,6 na na 2.468.795,7
Bancolombia PF 24.660 6.293 1.783.601 17,8% -0,2% -46,2% -38,9% 17.415,2 46.479,7 9,8 7,8 na na 6.898.924,8
Banco de Bogota 61.720 5.503 54.385 0,5% 2,0% -27,5% -8,3% 58.000,0 90.000,0 na na na na 251.073,9
BVC 10.640 173 11.207 0,1% -0,6% -8,3% -15,2% 8.000,0 12.600,0 na na na na 117.801,6
Canacol* 10.540 513 14.543 0,1% -0,4% -11,9% -1,5% 7.810,0 13.000,0 15,3 6,4 6,1 3,7 456.633,6
Celsia* 4.075 1.173 64.726 0,6% -1,0% -7,6% -7,3% 3.450,0 4.850,0 44,3 18,9 8,9 7,9 364.489,0
Cementos Argos* 3.405 1.223 68.943 0,7% 0,1% -53,4% -55,0% 2.415,0 8.090,0 51,8 51,2 9,8 8,5 2.468.716,7
Cementos Argos PF 2.980 1.223 5.109 0,1% 0,0% -47,5% -52,5% 2.220,0 7.000,0 na 16,9 9,9 7,5 148.419,7
CLH* 1.520 237 45.988 0,5% 0,0% -65,5% -66,1% 1.360,0 4.800,0 37,2 16,3 7,7 7,2 257.541,8
Corficol 27.800 2.222 292.465 2,9% 0,1% -9,7% 11,7% 19.600,0 33.820,0 na na na na 736.239,6
Davivienda PF 27.740 3.372 722.253 7,2% -0,9% -39,7% -30,5% 22.040,0 47.440,0 12,0 8,6 na na 1.440.891,8
Ecopetrol* 2.060 22.796 2.182.053 21,8% -0,7% -37,9% -29,6% 1.300,0 3.495,0 10,0 11,3 5,1 5,4 7.422.569,4
GEB* 2.370 5.856 159.340 1,6% 1,5% 6,8% 12,9% 1.745,0 2.600,0 10,2 9,9 10,6 10,2 1.434.500,7
Éxito* 10.180 1.226 13.447 0,1% 1,8% -26,7% -38,8% 9.800,0 17.980,0 23,4 14,0 0,7 5,7 1.695.328,1
Grupo Aval PF 824 5.393 545.270 5,4% -0,7% -43,6% -35,4% 700,0 1.515,0 7,4 7,4 8,9 7,4 1.892.792,5
Grupo Sura 18.440 2.811 608.881 6,1% -1,1% -45,8% -45,3% 14.860,5 35.585,4 4,7 4,3 na na 2.668.832,2
Grupo Sura PF 15.900 2.811 48.119 0,5% 0,1% -45,7% -49,4% 10.884,6 33.829,8 4,0 3,7 na na 1.326.171,7
Grupo Argos 9.750 2.147 404.641 4,0% -1,5% -45,2% -43,6% 7.000,0 18.980,0 9,9 11,6 7,9 7,5 1.551.760,1
Grupo Argos PF 7.950 2.147 16.770 0,2% 3,9% -41,1% -43,5% 5.500,0 15.200,0 na na na na 332.071,4
ISA* 18.560 5.533 981.645 9,8% -1,3% -5,3% 3,6% 11.000,0 20.880,0 15,6 16,4 8,9 7,6 2.422.549,6
Nutresa* 20.820 2.578 225.728 2,3% -0,4% -18,0% -16,7% 16.800,0 26.400,0 14,9 12,5 8,0 7,6 1.134.464,1
Promigas 6.740 2.059 0 0,0% 3,7% -15,8% 12,3% 5.889,0 8.342,7 na na na na 246.672,2
Mineros 3.300 232 40.488 0,4% 0,2% 1,5% 23,6% 2.170,0 3.565,0 na na na na 106.945,5
Non-index:
Terpel* 6.540 319 3.075 0,0% -0,2% -34,6% -40,0% 6.300,0 11.300,0 9,2 6,0 4,7 4,9 107.390,2
Conconcreto 360 110 8.322 0,1% 0,6% -20,7% -28,7% 318,0 557,0 na na na na 37.896,4
ETB 220 210 21.175 0,2% 3,3% -15,1% -12,0% 169,0 284,0 na na na na 74.569,3
Grupo Aval 935 5.393 476 0,0% 0,0% -36,2% -26,7% 925,0 1.500,0 8,4 8,4 8,9 7,4 83.841,0
El Cóndor 919 142 0 0,0% 0,0% -30,1% -27,1% 870,0 1.400,0 na na na na 32.978,6
Enka* 8 24 0 0,0% 0,0% -23,3% -5,0% 7,5 11,4 8,1 6,4 4,2 3,4 8.568,6
Fabricato 4 10 0 0,0% 0,0% -15,8% -29,8% 4,2 6,0 na na na na 6.876,3
HCOLSEL 10.421 317 0 0,0% 0,0% -32,4% -27,1% 8288,0 15538,5 na na na na 2.266.938,1
*P/E and EV/EBITDA estimated by Bancolombia

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

Breakfast with Bancolombia
Sovereign Bonds & FX Market

FX Performance – USD/COP and USD/BRL Fixed Income – TES Yield Curve (%)

USDCOP USDBRL
24-jun.-20 1-jul.-20
4.400 6,20
8,80%
6,00 8,40%
8,00%
4.200 5,80 7,60%
5,32 7,20% 6,70%
5,60 6,80% 6,44%
6,40% 5,96%
4.000 5,40
6,00% 6,68%
5,20 5,60% 6,34%
5,20% 4,92% 5,80%
3.800 5,00 4,80%
4,40% 3,88%
4,80 4,00% 4,77%
3.600 4,60 3,60% 3,16%
2,30% 3,78%
3,20%
3.715 4,40 2,80%
2,40% 3,15%
3.400 4,20 2,00%
1,60%
4,00 1,20% 1,17%
3.200 3,80 0,80%
0,40%
3,60 0,00%

jun-32
ago-26
may-22
jul-20

jul-24

abr-28

sep-30
3.000 3,40
13-…
20-…
27-…
15-Apr
22-Apr
29-Apr
12-Feb

18-Mar
25-Mar

1-Jul
19-Feb
26-Feb

11-Mar

3-Jun
1-Apr
8-Apr

10-Jun
17-Jun
24-Jun
5-Feb

4-Mar

6-May

Var bp
-113 -2 -10 -15 -16 -10 -2

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

Commodity Prices by Category (Base 100, 12 months) Commodity Prices by Category (var%)

Units 01-Jul-20 Daily YTD

Agricultural Precious Metals
Reference Index
130 Industrial Metals Energy CRB Index unit 139,1 0,8% -25,5%
120 Energy
WTI US$/bbl 39,8 1,4% -35,4%
110
Brent US$/bbl 42,0 2,1% -38,6%
100 Coal US$/tn 51,6 -1,1% -23,8%
Industrial Metals
90
Copper US$/lb 271,7 0,1% -4,1%
80 Precious Metals
70 Gold US$/oz 1779,9 -1,1% 17,2%
Silver US$/oz 18,1 -2,2% 0,7%
60
Agriculture
50 Coffee Arabica cent US$/lb 103,1 3,0% -22,0%
Wheat cent US$/lb 498,8 1,8% -10,3%
40
Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Corn cent US$/bu 348,3 2,9% -10,3%
Sugar Usd/lb 12,2 2,8% -10,1%

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg

 Economic, Industry and Market Research
Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research
Economic research
Diego Fernando Zamora Díaz
Head of Economic Research
diezamor@Bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463997 ext. 37319
Arturo Yesid González Peña
Quantitative Analyst
arygonza@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext 37385
Santiago Espitia Pinzón
Macroeconomic Analyst
sespitia@bancolombia.com.co
+ 571 7463988 ext. 37315
Bryan Hurtado Campuzano
International and Regional Analyst
brhurtd@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext. 37303
Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez
International and Markets Analyst
jupachec@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464322 ext. 37380
Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes
Central Banking and Financial System
Analyst
juamenes@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463994 ext. 37316
Deiby Alejandro Rojas Cano
Interrn
derojas@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463988 ext. 37310
Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango
juespino@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463991 ext. 37313
Industry Research
Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada
Head of Agroindustry Research
jhescoba@bancolombia.com.co
+574 4044649 ext 44649
Nicolás Pineda Bernal
Head of Commerce Research
nipineda@bancolombia.com.co
+574 4042985 ext 42985
Juan Sebastián Neira Orozco
Commerce Industry Analyst
juneira@bancolombia.com.co
Paolo Betancur Montoya
Agroindustry Analyst
pabetanc@bancolombia.com.co
Javier David Villegas
Real Estate and Hotels Analyst
javilleg@bancolombia.com.co
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Commerce Sector Analyst
valgomez@bancolombia.com.co
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Administrative Assistant
jueagude@bancolombia.com.co
Research Assistant
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Research Editor
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Equity Research
Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo
Head of Equity Research
jjagudel@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6047048
Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar
Energy Analyst
diebuit@bancolombia.com.co
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Financial Sector Analyst
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Cement & Infrastructure Analyst
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Oil & Gas & Airlines Analyst
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Junior Analyst
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Junior Analyst
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involved in such decisions. Fixed income and equity securities, interest rates, and other information found here are purely informational and are not an offer
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The information and opinions in this research report constitute a judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information
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Nevertheless, it has been prepared by our Analysis Bancolombia department team based on strict internal policies that require from us objectivity and
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The information contained in this report is not based, does not include nor has been structured based on privileged or confidential information. Any opinions
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available at the time.

The content of this message does not constitute a professional recommendation to make investments according to the terms of article 2.39.1.1.2 of the
Decree 2555 of 2010 or the regulations that modify, replace or complement it.

Rating System
The investment recommendation on the issuers under coverage by Analysis Bancolombia is governed by the rating system presented below, subject to the
following criteria:

The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target price
is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair price the
market should pay for the shares on a given date.

Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the assets
are determined as follows:

Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Under Review: the company’s coverage is under review and therefore there’s no rating or target price.

Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking into account
the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show.

The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index,
considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and November
of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used.

Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 19 companies under coverage, distributed as follows:

Overweight Market Weight Underweight Under Review

Number of issuers with ratings of: 19
Percentage of issuers with ratings of: 100%