Tenuous tack

The MPC’s policy of prioritising growth over

price stability is clearly fraught with risks

F
riday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Commit-
tee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India to main-
tain status quo on benchmark interest rates and
continue with an accommodative policy stance for “as
long as necessary” has been widely welcomed as being
‘pro-growth’. With the MPC noting that the signs of eco-
nomic recovery were still far from broad-based, the pa-
nel asserted that it was incumbent on policymakers to
support a durable rebound. The MPC also flagged its ex-
pectation that inflation would continue to “remain ele-
vated” through the coming months to average 6.3% —
well above the 6% upper bound of its target range —
through the second half of the current fiscal. The RBI,
which in October estimated retail inflation to range bet-
ween 4.5% and 5.4% in the six-month period, has in just
two months raised its projection for price gains by at
least close to one percentage point. Seen in this light,
the MPC’s decision shows that the RBI is clearly priori-
tising growth over price stability for now. While the
compulsion to ensure that monetary policy remains
broadly supportive of an economy that is in recession
as a fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and accompany-
ing lockdowns is understandable, the rate setting pa-
nel’s readiness to shrug off both persistently high infla-
tion and its own outlook on prices is cause for concern.
Recent increases in the prices of iron ore, steel and
transportation fuels also add to the worries that cost
pressures are continuing to accumulate at a time when
the economy is still well under water. The RBI has also,
surprisingly, raised its GDP forecast for the full year.
The central bank now expects the economy to shrink
by only 7.5% in the 12 months ending in March, a full 2
percentage points shallower than the 9.5% contraction
it had projected in October. The forecast is predicated
on a return to growth of 0.1% in Q3 and 0.7% in Q4. It is
this ostensibly sanguine outlook on the economy that is
hard to square with the RBI’s stand according primacy
to growth over price stability. With the central bank
prognosticating that, save some possible continued sof-
tening in the prices of cereals and transient easing of ve-
getable costs through the winter, other food prices
would persistently remain at elevated levels, the MPC’s
policy approach is clearly fraught with risks. By laying
the onus on supply disruptions, profiteering and taxes
for the inflation spiral, the RBI is abdicating its primary
mandate.