Differential Equation

Project
Group 3
1. UMAR ABDUL RAZZAQ 210101014
2. QURRAT UL HUSNAIN 210101018
3. AHMED HASSAN FAROOQI 210101022
4. MUHAMMAD USMAN 210101024

SYNOPSIS OF ALL 5 ARTICLES with BLOCK DIAGRAM.

1. A Stochastic Logistic Innovation Diffusion

Model Studying the Electricity Consumption
in Greece and the United States
SYNOPSIS:
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE:
In the last 30 years, there has been growing interest in forecasting the market demand of new products.
The reason is that, at any time, market demand forecasts are critical to production, distribution, and
promotion of these products. Until now, a number of deterministic new product forecasting models
have been proposed in order to study the time-dependent aspects of the innovation diffusion process.
One major observation that can be made from reviewing the literature, however, is that the evolution of
innovation diffusion models has ignored merely stochastic considerations. The desirability of a
stochastic perspective is especially vital given the long-term forecasts that the diffusion models can
potentially provide. In this paper, a stochastic version of the well-known logistic model is solved
analytically using the theory of reducible SDEs. Then, the model is used to study the course of electricity
consumption growth in Greece and the United States
 METHOD EXPLANATION: In this article, a stochastic innovation
diffusion model is proposed, The stochastic model is solved analytically using the theory of reducible stochastic
differential equations. The parameter estimators of the model are derived using two procedures for discrete observations
of the process. Finally, the model is applied to the data of electricity consumption in Greece and the United States. A
general formulation of a deterministic innovation diffusion model assumes that the current growth rate is
modeled as the product of functions of the current size and the remaining growth [18], Eq. (1.1):
df(t)
~ g(f(t),p) · [h(F) — h(f(t))] (1.1)
dt
Where df(t)dt = the current growth rate of the process
F = the total population of the potential adopters
f(t) = the current cumulative number of adopters
h(F) — h(f(t)) = the remaining growth of the process
p = vector of parameters
Under the assumption of a homogeneously mixing population, it is plausible to assume that the probability for a
potential adopter to adopt the new product in a small time interval dt is (b · f(t)). In a population of (F — f(t))
potential adopters, the number of adoptions in a small time interval dt would be Eq. (1.2):
df(t) f(t)
=b· · (F — f(t)) (1.2)
dt F
where b is called the coefficient of imitation. Eq. (1.2) represents the well-known logistic growth
curve and can be derived from Eq. (1.1) for g(f(t),p) = (b · f(t))/F,h(F) = F and h(f(t)) = f(t).

2. A Neural Ordinary Differential Equations Based

Approach for Demand Forecasting
within Power Grid Digital Twins

Introduction
Electricity power grid is one of the most critical parts of civil infrastructures. The concept of
Electrical Digital Twin (EDT) is becoming popular within smart grid applications due to its
capability of providing a dynamic replica of power grid. It uses techniques to create a living
digital simulation model which helps in driving better informed decisions for smart grid
applications. A neural ODE based generative approach has been proposed for modeling
demand time series within variational auto encoder (VAE) architecture. In this article, a
proposed model based on the generative neural ODE approach has been formulated.

Method Used
A model based on generative neural ODE approach is proposed in which the input parameters,
reverse mode differentiation via the ODE solver, and the distinct advantages of the proposed
approach are outlined.

Explanation of Method
In this method, data samples of lagged electricity demand within 24 hours (wi=48) is used to
forecast the demands 6 hours ahead (wo=12) in horizon when the latent space dimensionality h
takes value of 128, 256 or 512 respectively. Specifically, the lagged input can be expressed as:

lin = {l(t1), ... ,l(twi )} , wi = 48

The forecasted output is expressed as:

lout = {l(twi+1), ... ,l(twi+wo )} , wo = 12

Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) is used as the error metric:

NRMSE (%) = 100 x square root ( 1/nt x ∑(nt , j=1) ( ^lj (ti) − lj (ti) )2 ) / (lmax – lmin)

Where,

1. ˆlj (ti) and lj (ti) correspond to the forecasted and true electricity demand respectively
2. lmax and lmin are the maximum and minimum electricity demand within the period
3. nt denotes the size of the testing dataset.
NRSME is used to reduce their influence of large variations in the time series data.

3. Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering

Multigrid Block Preconditioning for a Coupled System of Partial Differential Equations

Modeling the Electrical Activity in the Heart

INTRODUCTION:

In the article, there are solution techniques for the bidomain model, introduced by Tung [1] in the late
1970s. The model, describing the electrical activity in the heart, consists of two partial differential
equations (PDEs) coupled to a complex system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The PDEs
describe the propagation of the electrical signal in the heart tissue, while the ODEs model the electrical
activity of the individual cardiac cells. A possible application of the model is to simulate ECG recordings
by computing the electrical potential on the surface of the body. This requires the equations of the
bidomain model to be coupled to a third PDE, modeling the propagation of the electrical signal in the
surrounding torso. Solving this equation to derive the body surface potential from the surface potential
on the heart is referred to as the forward problem.

EQUATION:

MEATHOD USED:

1: Time Discretization

2: Finite Element Discretization

3: Operator Splitting and Classical Iterations

4: Preconditioned Krylov Subspace Methods

4. An All Electric Integrator for Solving Differential

Equations

SYNOPSIS:
Introduction:
The planimeter is familiar to engineers and scientists in many and varied fields of
work for obtaining the area inside a closed curve. The Kelvin wheel-and-disk
integrator has been used on many calculating devices and has proved highly
satisfactory. Still another, and perhaps the most widely used of all integrators is the
ordinary commercial watthour meter which integrates the power over the time J Pdt
to give the electric energy consumed. Unless extreme precision is required, any of
these devices is satisfactory, and the actual integration in the solution of the
differential equation does not constitute a stumbling block in any sense.

Method Explanation: The solution of differential equations should now

be apparent. To assure it however, consider the solution of the simple harmonic equation as
another example, boundary conditions, y= 1, dy/dx=O when x=O. This is a second-order
equation and so its solution will require two integrators, each complete with its follow-up
mechanism and Variac current controller. In this method second order ordinary differential
 equations are used to solve mathematical problems.

dy^2/dx^2+k^2y=0
Rewrite the equation,
(dy^2/dx^2)dx = -k^2ydx
Then integrating this,
dy/dx= -k2 fydx,
and y itself is simply
f(dy/dx)dx.

The first integrand is - k2y. The first integration yields dy / dx, and this at once is the
second integrand. The second integral is y itself, the answer.

5. Short-term power load forecasting with ordinary

differential equation substitutions of polynomial networks
INTRODUCTION:

Power load forecasting is important for an economically efficient operation and effective control of
power systems and enables to plan the load of generating units. A precise load forecasting is required to
avoid high generation costs and the spinning reserve capacity. Differential polynomial neural network is
a new neural net-work type, which decomposes and solves the selective general partial differential
equation. It produces an output sum combination of convergent series of selected relative polynomial
derivative terms, which can substitute for an ordinary differential equation solution to describe and
forecast real data time-series. In this article, proposed model based on neural ODE approach has been
formulated.

Method:

The proposed method of this article is the power load forecasting using historical time-series, by neural
ODE network. Power values of several sequential days in previous weeks are used as input vector. The
input vector can comprise specific time-series of the days and weeks. This method can also apply
weather or other historical data, to eliminate a casual prediction error increase.

Explanation:

In this method, Power values of several sequential days in previous weeks at the same time points taken
as input vector .load pattern are of different days are taken. For this, we use the help of partial
differential equation consisting of convergent series arising from partial derivative terms in respect of
derivative variables .
After all parameters, a week power cycle is formulated. To allow for all these week cycle regularities it is
necessary to consider not only time-series of past days but also to heed to the previous week day power
patterns of the same denominations .now by this method we can easily make power loaded daily
predictions.

Percentage error (MAPE) is the measure of accuracy of a method estimating time-series values. We can
find it easily by formulating its formula with the help of ODE

The maximal load absolute error (MLAE) is an accuracy of the daily maximal power load prediction this
can also be easily find by making power load cycle.

BLOCK DIAGRAM: The combine block diagram

of all 5 articles is :
 DIFFERENTIAL Introduction: Basic
information related to the
DDIYGE
EQUATION article and how the thought
process related to the
particular article was
developed.

Objective: The objective is METHOD SELECTION: Various

to understand the use of
differential equations in
different aspects of our life
and to understand their
working and the benefit
they provide to our life.
methods were used depending on
the need of the solution of the
problem. Most problems were
solved using Matlab.

Method Explanation: In these

problems Partial differential
Equations are converted to ordinary
differential equations through
various mathematical formulas.

Result : The results of the solution of

these articles have been stated in the
synopsis

Conclusion The final observations made

from this study about various
differential equations are that they are
extremely useful for solving various
problems related to daily life.