Case Study on Brexit

Synopsis/Executive Summary

Brexit is a portmanteau of the words "British" and "exit" coined to refer to the
U.K.'s decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU). Brexit
took place at 11 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time, Jan. 31, 2020. Its effect could be huge
and long-lasting. Hence it is important to review and critically evaluate about what, when
& why of Brexit is going to be taken place. As of now, Britain has been debating the
pros and cons of membership in a European community of nations almost from the
moment the idea is raised. It held its first referendum on membership in what was then
called the European Economic Community in 1975, less than three years after it joined,
when 67 percent of voters supported staying in the bloc. Later on, in 2013, the Prime
Minister David Cameron promised a national referendum on European Union
membership with the idea of settling the question once and for all. Consequently, the
options it offered are broad and vague- ‘Remain or Leave’. Some of the issues that
Brexit left hanging are as follows:

- European Debt Crisis

Since the end of 2009, a multi-year debt crisis has been taking place in the EU.
In particular, we find that Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain & Cyprus were unable to
repay their government debt. They started taking loans from the European Central Bank
or the International Monetary Fund. France, Germany, United Kingdom having
financially stable economy use to send funds to European Central Bank which then
redistributed to various other members states. In this respect, the UK’s thought was
“Why should we have to pay for that”?

- Great Recession Effects

The effects of great recession in 2008 are still there in the world. The UK wanted to
grow by 3% per year. But they could not do that even the economists from UK predict
that on an average a person from UK will borrow 55% of his total expenditure from
bank.

- European Refugee Crisis and Security Concern

The refugee arriving in EU from across the different part from the world can move
anywhere in the EU countries. As they can arrive to UK also, UK feels much concern
about the security and privacy.

- Legal Quandary

One focal point for alleged European control over UK laws is the influence of the
European Court of Human Rights, which in certain high-profile cases has made it harder
to deport foreign-born criminals. If UK moves away from the ECHR’s influence, it would
be in company with isolated Belarus. We find that Belarus is the only European
countries not to comply with ECHR.

- Membership Fee

Brexiteers argued that leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving, as
the country would no longer contribute to the EU budget. To note that in 2016, Britain
paid in £13.1bn, but it also received £4.5bn worth of spending. Hence in a simple
understanding the UK’s net contribution was £8.5bn.

- Trade

The EU is a single market in which imports and exports between member states are
exempt from tariffs and other barriers. Services, including financial services, can also be
offered without restriction across the continent. The consequences of Brexit for
businesses that took advantage of these freedoms was always a matter of debate and
conjecture.

- Immigration
 Under EU law, Britain could not prevent a citizen of another member state from
coming to live in the UK. The result is a huge increase in immigration into Britain,
particularly from eastern and southern Europe.

Findings

These are some key findings of the said problems above.

1. Exit from EU is expected to take place at a longer time. In this respect, Article 50 of
the Lisbon Treaty provides rules that it takes 2 years to exit form EU. Within this period
the investors might be very indeterminate about the pound rate, about the new policies
of trade with the countries of EU. For this reason, it is assumed that by 2020, the
investment could fall by 16% to 20%. By 2030, when all the policies are settled, the
economy might grow again (The Telegraph, 21st November, 2018).

2. According to PWC report of Sept. 2018, immediately after Brexit the GDP of UK could
fall by 2% to 2.5%. However, we forecast that GDP might regain again after the
settlement of all policies.

3. As stated earlier that almost 45% of EU market is held by UK. Hence after Brexit the
EU can make some harsh decision about the trading policies with EU, they can put
more tariff or custom duties on UK companies. The businessman and Investors from UK
need to find a new market to invest this can fall the investment directly. In addition, FDI
rate could be decrease, because EU gives a significant rate of FDI to UK.

4. We expect that once UK exits EU, UK can autonomously control who can migrate to
UK.
5. The member countries of European Union have to pay a certain amount of money to
European Central Bank. After Brexit the UK do not have to pay this money.

6. As UK can control their migration procedures, they can control with whom they can
trade, or people from which country they might allow and not allow to enter. Thus, UK
might uphold their sovereignty control.

Conclusion

As of now, we notice that a referendum on Brexit is almost certain. While the

outcome is far from a foregone conclusion, a vote for Britain to leave the EU is very
much possible. The impact of Brexit on British businesses, the UK economy and wider
British interests would be severe across multiple channels. Based on the overall
analysis and critical review of the study, we analyze that UK might experience particular
difficulties after Brexit. But in long term the crack might be filled out. It will depend on
how UK would approach the world in various terms. In fact, both the path and the
endpoint, in terms of the new relationship between the UK and the rest of the EU, would
be uncertain, compounding the costs to the UK. In addition, the direct impact on the rest
of the EU would also be significant. The export, supply chain, investment and policy
interests of many large corporates would be adversely affected. Nonetheless, perhaps
the single biggest impact might be on the cost of raising finance in Europe which is
likely to increase. Brexit would have a wider political impact on the EU, by disrupting
internal political dynamics and risk of political contagion. Europe would also lose esteem
and influence around the globe. Further, member states would be affected in different
ways and to different extents. This might most likely influence ways in which states are
willing to engage and accommodate the UK during the pre-referendum negotiation. All
member states would, however, feel the impact of Brexit, both politically and
economically. Therefore, there is still much curiosity about the ultimate consequence of
Brexit in global political and business paradigm shift.

Recommendations
We observe that the decision of Britain leaving EU has always have a two-sided
argument. With stagnation and sovereignty at stake (Borchert, 2016) some might claim
that it is a right decision. But on the other hand, the various economic impacts ranging
from effect on trade, labor and industries might be a contention for discourse. We
estimate that the future of the Britain’s economy is uncertain, but not looking bright.
They might no longer be in relation with the 27 other countries that can boost their
economy, and lend them money whenever it is needed. As of now, the UK could most
likely try to negotiate an agreement that allows them access to the EU’s single market
without tariff and market barriers. In fact, we call this the Norway option, because it is
the same deal that Norway has with the Union, even though they were never a part of it.
In summary, Brexit might be highly risky decision on economic aspects for Britain.
Finally, for greater interest of Great Britain, UK shouldn’t leave the EU, or they can
make a deal with EU and go for a soft exit agreement with the EU. Therefore, we
recommend the following suggestions:

1. UK should do some solid deals with EU so that no one is badly affected for long term.

2. There should be a rethink of revised 2nd Referendum.

3. They should carefully think about soft Brexit and take the decision more practically.

4. Northern Ireland border should remain open.

5. Single Market could be continued to compete the global market.

6. UK should give the opportunity to skilled workers for their jobs and business
incentives in UK.

7. We suggest that the North-South Ministerial Council (NSMC) could have a role in
finding a feasible solution to the deadlock over the Irish border9. In fact, the new
arrangements to deal with cross-border trade after Brexit could involve the NSMC.

References
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brexit.asp

https://intertradeireland.com/insights/publications/intertradeireland-brexit-case-
studies

Mattelaer, A. (2017). Towards a Belgian Position on Brexit: Actively Reconciling

National and European Interests (pp. 4-7, Rep.). Egmont Institute. Retrieved
December 29, 2020, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep17407.4

De Búrca, G. (2018). How British was the Brexit vote? In Martill B. & Staiger U.
(Eds.), Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe (pp. 46-52). London:
UCL Press. Retrieved December 30, 2020, from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20krxf8.10