Scotia Sensitivities Deck

E&P
Shareholder Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

Global Equity Research
OUR TAKE: Positive. We have updated our CF/FCF sensitivities for our oil-weighted
Daily Edge | Pre-market producers. Free cash flow profiles remain healthy even at lower oil prices and, in our view,
Monday, August 22, 2022 there is significant value in the energy space.
Analyst Team Link to ScotiaView KEY POINTS

Jason Bouvier, CFA | Analyst

Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-213-7345
Energy shares continue to perform well and DAFCF yields are still healthy at lower

oil prices. YTD the median share price appreciation for oil-weighted stocks is 42%, with
Paul Y. Cheng, CFA | Analyst
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5927
Canadian firms up 40% and US firms up 45%. At $65 WTI the median 2023E DAFCF yield is

11%, which increases to 24% at $105 WTI.
Kevin Fisk, CPA, CBV | Associate Analyst
Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-213-7768
SMID cap DAFCF yields stand out relative to large caps and integrated/oil sands. At

Austin Glenn | Associate

Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada | 403-605-0871 $85 WTI, SMID cap companies have a median DAFCF yield of 26%, followed by large caps,
Canadian integrated/oil sands, and supermajors at 17%, 17%, and 16%, respectively.

Jordan Monahan | Associate

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5814
Who has the most torque? Exhibits 2-4 show our 2023E DAFCF yield and total shareholder

Betty Zhang, CFA | Associate

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 212-225-5977 return estimates at various oil prices. Exhibits 5-6 show the sensitivities of these estimates.
This report is intended for replaceme@bluematrix.com. Unauthorized distribution of this report is prohibited.
The median FCF sensitivity to a $10/bbl increase in WTI, from $85/bbl is ~19%. The most

Brian Zhang, CFA | Associate

Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. | 347-224-3686 sensitive companies are PXT, HES, CPG, IPCO, WCP, SU and ERF, with WTI sensitivities greater
than 25%.
Focused on shareholder returns. The median 2023E total shareholder return yield under our
$65 WTI scenario is 5%, which increases to 15% in the $105 WTI scenario. As companies meet
and exceed their deleveraging targets, free cash flow allocations towards shareholder returns
continue to rise. The companies with the potential to increase shareholder returns the most
include:
• Integrated/Oil Sands: CVE, IMO, and SHEL
• Large Caps: MUR and OVV
• SMID Caps: VET
Top picks. Our top oil-weighted picks include:
• Integrated/Oil Sands: IMO, CVE, and SHEL
• Large Caps: APA, MRO, MUR, and OVV
• SMID Caps: CPG, ERF, and VET
Production: August 21, 2022, 19:57 ET. Dissemination: August 22, 2022, 06:31 ET.
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts
employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in
the U.S. unless otherwise noted within this report.
Daily Edge | Pre-market

Monday, August 22, 2022
Strong
YTD share price performance. Share prices have increased significantly YTD with oil-weighted names generating a median return of
42% (27% higher than WTI). Canadian names generated a median return of 40%, and U.S. names generated a median return of 45% (Exhibit
1). For comparison, the return on the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX indices has been -10% and -4%, respectively.
Exhibit 1 - Relative Performance
TSE
95
86
58
48
47
41
40
37
36
36
33
32
28
27
22
20
9
42.875
Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.

Global Equity Research 2

Robust
shareholder returns for integrated/oil sands companies (Exhibit 2). At $85/bbl WTI, Canadian integrated/oil sands have a median
2023E DAFCF yield of 17%, compared to the supermajors at 16%. BP, SHEL, and IMO have the highest DAFCF yields at $85/bbl WTI with
yields of 23%, 21%, and 18%, respectively. Under the same scenario, IMO, SHEL, and BP have the highest 2023E total shareholder returns at
17%, 15%, and 14%, respectively.
Exhibit 2 - 2023E Integrated/Oil Sands CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

Integrated / Oil Sands
BP CNQ CVE CVX IMO SHEL SU TTE XOM
FX USD CAD CAD USD CAD USD CAD USD USD
Case 1: US$65/bbl WTI; US$-14/bbl WCS Diff; US$25/bbl NYH321; C$40/mcf TTF;($0.76 FX)
CF ($M) $31,298 $13,590 $8,204 $33,434 $4,491 $55,794 $10,722 $35,794 $46,947
Total Capex ($M) $12,347 $4,900 $3,950 $12,250 $1,500 $23,176 $5,230 $14,658 $18,093
Other Cash Outflows ($M)1 $0 $220 $747 $0 $20 $0 $320 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $18,951 $8,469 $3,507 $21,184 $2,971 $32,618 $5,172 $21,137 $28,854
Base Dividends ($M) $4,489 $3,216 $769 $11,150 $777 $7,268 $2,431 $8,438 $15,118
Special Dividend ($M) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $14,463 $5,253 $2,739 $10,034 $2,194 $25,350 $2,740 $12,698 $13,736
Share Buybacks ($M) $7,000 $3,147 $2,130 $15,000 $2,180 $20,000 $1,518 $4,600 $16,000
Payout Ratio (Base Dividend / FCF) 23.7% 38.0% 21.9% 52.6% 26.2% 22.3% 47.0% 39.9% 52.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.3x 0.5x 0.3x 0.3x nmf 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x 0.3x
EV/DACF 3.2x 5.7x 5.2x 8.8x 7.9x 3.6x 5.2x 4.5x 0.0x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 18.9% 10.5% 8.7% 7.5% 9.0% 16.2% 9.4% 13.2% 7.5%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 22.0% 11.3% 8.0% 7.0% 8.7% 19.2% 9.7% 16.8% 7.3%
Buybacks as a % of Opening Shares O/S6 7.5% 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 6.6% 10.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.9%
Base Dividend Yield (%) 5.2% 4.3% 1.8% 3.7% 2.3% 4.3% 4.6% 6.7% 3.8%
Special Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Shareholder Returns (%)7 12.8% 8.6% 6.5% 8.4% 8.9% 14.8% 7.5% 10.2% 7.8%
Case 2: US$75/bbl WTI; US$-15/bbl WCS Diff; US$27.5/bbl NYH321; C$50/mcf TTF; ($0.77 FX)
CF ($M) $33,460 $15,554 $9,999 $37,300 $5,742 $61,099 $12,874 $38,210 $52,026
Total Capex ($M) $12,978 $4,900 $3,950 $12,768 $1,500 $24,514 $5,230 $15,437 $18,907
Base Dividends ($M) $4,489 $3,200 $762 $11,150 $758 $7,268 $2,398 $8,412 $15,118
Share Buybacks ($M) $7,000 $4,133 $3,472 $15,000 $3,442 $20,000 $3,269 $5,400 $16,000
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 20.7% 13.1% 12.7% 8.9% 13.3% 18.5% 13.0% 14.4% 8.6%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 23.8% 14.0% 12.1% 8.1% 12.8% 21.5% 13.9% 18.2% 8.4%
Case 3: US$85/bbl WTI; US$-16/bbl WCS Diff; US$30/bbl NYH321; C$60/mcf TTF; ($0.78 FX)
CF ($M) $35,637 $17,354 $11,715 $41,160 $6,975 $66,443 $14,759 $40,602 $57,055
Total Capex ($M) $13,610 $4,900 $3,950 $13,290 $1,500 $25,851 $5,230 $16,216 $19,727
Base Dividends ($M) $4,463 $3,185 $753 $11,150 $739 $7,268 $2,373 $8,389 $15,118
Share Buybacks ($M) $8,000 $5,746 $5,110 $15,000 $4,687 $20,000 $4,452 $6,100 $16,000
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 22.5% 15.5% 16.7% 10.3% 17.9% 20.9% 16.4% 15.5% 9.7%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 25.7% 16.5% 16.2% 9.2% 17.3% 23.9% 17.7% 19.5% 9.5%
CF ($M) $37,830 $18,944 $12,942 $45,016 $8,107 $71,828 $16,618 $42,973 $62,042
Total Capex ($M) $14,244 $4,900 $3,950 $13,817 $1,500 $27,188 $5,230 $16,995 $20,554
Base Dividends ($M) $4,437 $3,164 $748 $11,150 $728 $7,268 $2,331 $8,363 $15,118
Share Buybacks ($M) $9,000 $7,282 $5,859 $15,000 $4,966 $20,000 $6,178 $6,900 $16,000
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 24.3% 17.6% 19.8% 11.7% 22.5% 23.3% 19.8% 16.6% 10.9%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 27.7% 18.8% 19.2% 10.3% 21.0% 26.2% 21.7% 20.9% 10.5%
CF ($M) $40,037 $20,729 $14,547 $48,882 $9,328 $77,252 $18,450 $45,334 $67,101
Total Capex ($M) $14,878 $4,900 $3,950 $14,348 $1,500 $28,525 $5,230 $17,773 $21,389
Base Dividends ($M) $4,411 $3,148 $733 $11,150 $717 $7,268 $2,303 $8,339 $15,118
Share Buybacks ($M) $10,000 $8,402 $6,802 $15,000 $4,966 $20,000 $7,437 $7,600 $16,000
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 26.2% 20.2% 24.3% 13.1% 27.8% 25.9% 23.4% 17.8% 12.0%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 29.7% 21.4% 23.4% 11.3% 24.9% 28.6% 25.6% 22.2% 11.6%
Note: See Appendix 1.1 for FCF sensitivity details.
Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Large
Caps generating significant FCF (Exhibit 3). At $85/bbl WTI, the median large cap company has a 2023E DAFCF yield of 17%, with the
25th and 75th percentile being 14% and 26%, respectively. MUR, OVV, and MRO have the highest DAFCF yields at $85/bbl WTI with yields of
35%, 30%, and 28%, respectively. Under the same scenario, MRO, APA, and OVV have the highest 2023E total shareholder returns at 18%,
18%, and 17%, respectively.
Exhibit 3 - 2023E Large Cap CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

Large Cap
APA CLR CTRA COP DVN EOG FANG HES MRO MUR OVV OXY PXD
FX USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD
CF ($M) $4,262 $5,273 $5,349 $20,189 $8,016 $10,601 $4,919 $4,181 $4,050 $2,245 $4,291 $11,621 $8,813
Total Capex ($M) $1,971 $2,970 $1,842 $8,009 $2,851 $4,986 $1,806 $3,253 $1,379 $736 $2,000 $4,579 $4,141
Other Cash Outflows ($M)1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $30 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $2,291 $2,304 $3,508 $12,180 $5,166 $5,615 $3,113 $927 $2,671 $1,509 $2,261 $7,042 $4,672
Base Dividends ($M) $195 $470 $168 $5,104 $391 $2,401 $482 $552 $196 $172 $239 $645 $707
Special Dividend ($M) $0 $0 $1,586 $2,391 $2,444 $968 $21 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,075
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $2,097 $1,833 $1,754 $4,685 $2,330 $2,246 $2,611 $375 $2,475 $1,337 $2,022 $6,397 $891
Share Buybacks ($M) $1,100 $400 $1,000 $7,500 $1,600 $116 $2,400 $0 $1,900 $129 $1,191 $2,400 $1,000
Payout Ratio (Base Dividend / FCF) 8.5% 20.4% 4.8% 41.9% 7.6% 42.8% 15.5% 59.5% 7.3% 11.4% 10.6% 9.2% 15.1%
2
Net Debt / EBITDA 0.9x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.5x -0.3x 1.0x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 0.5x 1.6x 0.4x
EV/DACF 4.0x 4.4x 4.1x 6.2x 5.0x 5.4x 5.3x 9.7x 3.4x 3.0x 3.0x 6.9x 6.9x
3,4
DAFCF Yield (%) 13.1% 10.3% 14.8% 9.3% 12.9% 9.7% 11.6% 1.1% 19.4% 21.5% 17.4% 10.4% 7.6%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 22.2% 10.7% 15.7% 11.2% 14.2% 9.5% 15.5% 2.9% 21.3% 29.7% 19.6% 11.1% 8.3%
Buybacks as a % of Opening Shares O/S 6 9.5% 1.9% 4.3% 6.4% 4.2% 0.2% 10.9% 0.0% 12.7% 2.5% 10.1% 3.7% 1.7%
Base Dividend Yield (%) 1.9% 2.2% 0.7% 4.7% 1.1% 4.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 3.4% 2.0% 1.0% 1.3%
Special Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 2.2% 6.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5%
Shareholder Returns (%)7 11.4% 4.1% 12.1% 13.3% 12.0% 5.9% 13.4% 1.7% 14.2% 5.9% 12.1% 4.7% 8.5%
CF ($M) $5,002 $5,897 $5,630 $22,642 $8,986 $11,951 $5,590 $4,918 $4,598 $2,578 $5,010 $13,248 $9,878
Total Capex ($M) $1,985 $3,034 $1,874 $8,157 $2,934 $5,112 $1,862 $3,285 $1,413 $743 $2,000 $4,648 $4,253

FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $3,017 $2,863 $3,756 $14,485 $6,052 $6,839 $3,728 $1,633 $3,184 $1,834 $2,980 $8,600 $5,625
Base Dividends ($M) $192 $470 $168 $5,104 $391 $2,401 $482 $551 $192 $171 $238 $642 $707
Special Dividend ($M) $0 $0 $1,710 $2,391 $2,887 $1,702 $21 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,790
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $2,825 $2,393 $1,878 $6,990 $2,774 $2,735 $3,226 $1,082 $2,992 $1,664 $2,742 $7,958 $1,129
Share Buybacks ($M) $1,400 $400 $1,000 $7,500 $1,600 $116 $2,400 $100 $2,200 $211 $1,459 $3,100 $1,000
2
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 17.9% 12.9% 15.9% 11.7% 15.3% 12.0% 14.3% 3.1% 23.7% 27.7% 23.5% 12.6% 9.3%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 29.7% 13.3% 16.8% 13.3% 16.7% 11.6% 18.6% 5.1% 25.9% 36.4% 26.1% 13.6% 10.0%
6
Buybacks as a % of Opening Shares O/S 12.1% 1.9% 4.3% 6.4% 4.2% 0.2% 10.9% 0.3% 14.7% 4.1% 12.4% 4.8% 1.7%
7
Shareholder Returns (%) 14.0% 4.1% 12.6% 13.3% 13.3% 7.1% 13.4% 2.0% 16.3% 7.5% 14.4% 5.8% 9.7%
CF ($M) $5,746 $6,521 $5,910 $25,094 $9,957 $13,301 $6,261 $5,653 $5,145 $2,910 $5,734 $14,874 $10,944
Total Capex ($M) $2,000 $3,100 $1,906 $8,304 $3,016 $5,236 $1,916 $3,316 $1,449 $751 $2,000 $4,719 $4,369
Base Dividends ($M) $188 $470 $168 $5,104 $391 $2,401 $482 $548 $190 $169 $237 $638 $707
Share Buybacks ($M) $1,800 $400 $1,000 $7,500 $1,600 $116 $2,400 $500 $2,500 $292 $1,730 $3,800 $1,000
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.6x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.3x -0.3x 0.6x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 1.1x 0.2x
3,4
DAFCF Yield (%) 23.0% 15.6% 17.0% 14.2% 17.7% 14.3% 17.1% 5.1% 28.3% 34.6% 30.2% 14.9% 10.9%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 37.6% 15.9% 17.9% 15.4% 19.1% 13.6% 21.6% 7.3% 30.4% 43.2% 32.8% 16.1% 11.7%
6
Buybacks as a % of Opening Shares O/S 15.6% 1.9% 4.3% 6.4% 4.2% 0.2% 10.9% 1.5% 16.8% 5.7% 14.7% 5.8% 1.7%
7
CF ($M) $6,494 $7,144 $6,190 $27,544 $10,927 $14,651 $6,932 $6,387 $5,692 $3,242 $6,458 $16,501 $12,009
Total Capex ($M) $2,014 $3,169 $1,937 $8,451 $3,096 $5,358 $1,970 $3,346 $1,486 $758 $2,000 $4,793 $4,488
1
Other Cash Outflows ($M) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $30 $0 $0
Base Dividends ($M) $184 $470 $168 $5,104 $391 $2,401 $482 $544 $187 $168 $236 $634 $707
Share Buybacks ($M) $2,200 $400 $1,000 $7,500 $1,600 $116 $2,400 $900 $2,900 $373 $1,769 $4,500 $1,000
2
3,4
DAFCF Yield (%) 28.5% 18.4% 18.2% 16.9% 20.2% 16.7% 20.0% 7.1% 33.0% 42.2% 38.1% 17.2% 12.6%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 45.9% 18.5% 19.0% 17.5% 21.6% 15.7% 24.7% 9.6% 35.2% 50.1% 39.4% 18.7% 13.4%
7
CF ($M) $7,247 $7,768 $6,470 $29,992 $11,897 $16,000 $7,603 $7,120 $6,239 $3,574 $7,182 $18,127 $13,074
Total Capex ($M) $2,030 $3,239 $1,967 $8,599 $3,176 $5,477 $2,023 $3,376 $1,524 $766 $2,000 $4,869 $4,611
Base Dividends ($M) $181 $470 $168 $5,104 $391 $2,401 $482 $541 $184 $166 $235 $630 $707
Share Buybacks ($M) $2,600 $400 $1,000 $7,500 $1,600 $116 $2,400 $1,300 $3,200 $454 $1,769 $5,300 $1,000
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.4x 0.1x 0.2x -0.1x 0.2x -0.3x 0.3x 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x nmf 0.8x 0.2x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 34.3% 21.2% 19.3% 19.6% 22.7% 19.1% 23.1% 9.2% 38.1% 50.6% 47.3% 19.6% 14.2%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 54.6% 21.1% 20.1% 19.6% 24.0% 17.8% 27.8% 11.8% 40.0% 57.2% 46.2% 21.3% 15.1%
7


SMID
Cap yields look attractive (Exhibit 4). At $85/bbl WTI, the median SMID cap company has a 2023E DAFCF yield of 26%, with the 25th
and 75th percentile being 18% and 42%, respectively. AOI, VET, and IPCO have the highest DAFCF yields at $85/bbl WTI with yields of 80%,
53%, and 42%, respectively. Under the same scenario, CPG, PXT, and ERF have the highest 2023E total shareholder returns at 18%, 17%, and
16%, respectively.
Exhibit 4 - 2023E SMID Cap CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

SMID Cap E&P Royalty
MEG BTE CPG ERF WCP AOI IPCO PXT VET FRU PSK
FX CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD USD USD USD CAD CAD CAD
CF ($M) $946 $1,005 $1,721 $888 $1,667 $230 $301 $702 $2,031 $246 $383
Total Capex ($M) $415 $565 $1,115 $500 $1,100 $40 $100 $530 $550 $0 $0
Other Cash Outflows ($M)1 $24 $25 $40 $14 $36 $0 $1 $48 $48 $6 $9
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $507 $415 $566 $374 $531 $190 $199 $124 $1,433 $240 $373
Base Dividends ($M) $0 $0 $153 $40 $262 $22 $0 $82 $48 $156 $112
Special Dividend ($M) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $507 $415 $413 $334 $269 $168 $199 $42 $1,385 $84 $261
Share Buybacks ($M) $252 $190 $431 $374 $217 $59 $258 $41 $804 $0 $67
Payout Ratio (Base Dividend / FCF) 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 10.7% 49.3% 11.8% 0.0% 66.1% 3.3% 64.9% 30.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.4x 0.8x nmf nmf nmf 0.3x 0.0x 0.2x
EV/DACF 5.1x 4.0x 3.0x 3.0x 4.3x -1.9x 4.5x 2.1x 2.8x 8.2x 10.6x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 11.4% 11.7% 10.8% 12.1% 9.1% 45.5% 18.5% 10.2% 26.4% 12.1% 9.4%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 10.7% 12.0% 12.2% 13.6% 9.7% 22.0% 15.4% 7.4% 29.4% 12.0% 9.4%
Buybacks as a % of Opening Shares O/S6 5.1% 5.1% 9.0% 14.1% 3.8% 6.7% 15.0% 2.1% 15.0% 0.0% 1.6%
Base Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 1.4% 4.9% 2.6% 0.0% 6.5% 1.0% 7.8% 2.8%
Special Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Shareholder Returns (%)7 5.1% 5.1% 12.4% 15.5% 8.7% 9.3% 15.0% 8.6% 16.0% 7.8% 4.4%
CF ($M) $1,225 $1,194 $2,126 $1,057 $1,965 $272 $399 $796 $2,481 $273 $422
Total Capex ($M) $415 $565 $1,115 $500 $1,100 $40 $100 $530 $550 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $786 $604 $971 $542 $828 $232 $297 $218 $1,883 $268 $413
Base Dividends ($M) $0 $0 $151 $40 $259 $22 $0 $81 $47 $155 $112
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $786 $604 $820 $503 $569 $209 $297 $137 $1,836 $113 $300
Share Buybacks ($M) $507 $273 $585 $397 $375 $67 $258 $135 $804 $0 $77
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.6x nmf nmf nmf 0.1x nmf 0.1x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 17.0% 16.9% 19.1% 18.5% 13.7% 60.8% 30.4% 18.1% 38.3% 13.7% 10.4%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 16.9% 17.6% 21.3% 19.9% 15.4% 26.9% 23.3% 13.4% 39.4% 13.5% 10.4%
CF ($M) $1,476 $1,390 $2,522 $1,237 $2,245 $313 $477 $882 $2,926 $300 $460
Total Capex ($M) $415 $565 $1,115 $500 $1,100 $40 $100 $530 $550 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $1,037 $800 $1,367 $723 $1,109 $273 $375 $304 $2,328 $295 $451
Base Dividends ($M) $0 $0 $149 $39 $256 $22 $0 $80 $46 $154 $112
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $1,037 $800 $1,218 $683 $853 $251 $375 $224 $2,282 $141 $339
Share Buybacks ($M) $663 $359 $715 $397 $554 $68 $258 $196 $804 $0 $87
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.0x 0.5x nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 0.1x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 22.6% 22.7% 28.2% 26.2% 18.3% 80.4% 41.6% 26.0% 52.9% 15.4% 11.5%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 22.6% 23.5% 30.3% 26.5% 20.8% 31.7% 29.5% 19.0% 49.5% 14.9% 11.3%
CF ($M) $1,697 $1,593 $2,909 $1,421 $2,499 $354 $596 $974 $3,367 $327 $497
Total Capex ($M) $415 $565 $1,115 $500 $1,100 $40 $100 $530 $550 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $1,258 $1,003 $1,754 $906 $1,363 $314 $494 $396 $2,769 $321 $488
Base Dividends ($M) $0 $0 $148 $39 $252 $22 $0 $80 $46 $153 $112
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $1,258 $1,003 $1,606 $867 $1,110 $292 $494 $316 $2,723 $168 $376
Share Buybacks ($M) $745 $555 $715 $397 $716 $69 $258 $198 $804 $0 $96
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.1x 0.2x 0.0x nmf 0.4x nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 0.0x
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 28.4% 28.4% 39.4% 35.1% 22.6% 105.6% 63.1% 36.4% 70.5% 17.1% 12.5%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 28.0% 29.8% 39.2% 33.2% 25.9% 36.6% 39.0% 24.8% 59.4% 16.3% 12.3%
CF ($M) $1,896 $1,777 $3,288 $1,604 $2,747 $396 $682 $1,066 $3,803 $352 $533
Total Capex ($M) $415 $565 $1,115 $500 $1,100 $40 $100 $530 $550 $0 $0
FCF (Before Dividends; $M) $1,457 $1,187 $2,133 $1,089 $1,611 $356 $581 $488 $3,205 $347 $525
Base Dividends ($M) $0 $0 $147 $39 $249 $22 $0 $81 $46 $152 $112
FCF (After Dividends; $M) $1,457 $1,187 $1,986 $1,050 $1,361 $333 $581 $407 $3,160 $195 $413
Share Buybacks ($M) $745 $555 $715 $397 $855 $70 $258 $201 $804 $0 $105
Net Debt / EBITDA2 0.0x 0.1x nmf nmf 0.3x nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf
DAFCF Yield3,4 (%) 34.3% 35.3% 52.5% 45.3% 27.2% 138.8% 83.4% 48.7% 98.0% 18.9% 13.5%
FCF Yield4,5 (%) 32.7% 35.6% 48.0% 39.9% 31.0% 41.4% 45.9% 30.5% 69.0% 17.7% 13.2%


Yields
remain healthy even at $65 WTI. The median 2023E DAFCF yield in the $65/bbl scenario is 11%, which increases to 24% in the $105/
bbl scenario (Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5 - 2023E DAFCF yield comparison under $65/bbl and $105/bbl WTI scenarios
HES 1% 9%
XOM 7% 12% 2023 DAFCF Yield at $65/bbl WTI Scenario
CVX 7% 13%
PSK 9% 14% 2023 DAFCF Yield at $105/bbl WTI Scenario
PXD 8% 14%
TTE 13% 18%
FRU 12% 19%
EOG 10% 19%
CTRA 15% 19%
COP 9% 20%
OXY 10% 20%
CNQ 11% 20%
CLR 10% 21%
DVN 13% 23%
FANG 12% 23%
SU 9% 23%
CVE 9% 24%
SHEL 16% 26%
BP 19% 26%
WCP 9% 27%
IMO 9% 28%
APA 13% 34%
MEG 11% 34%
BTE 12% 35%
MRO 19% 38%
ERF 12% 45%
OVV 17% 47%
PXT 10% 49%
MUR 21% 51%
CPG 11% 53%
IPCO 19% 83%
VET 26% 98%
AOI 46% 139%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
DAFCF Yield


Torque
to higher oil prices. Exhibit 6 shows the free cash flow sensitivity to a $10/bbl increase in WTI. The median free cash flow sensitivity
to a $10/bbl increase in WTI is 19%. The most sensitive companies are PXT, HES, CPG, IPCO, WCP, SU and ERF, with WTI sensitivities greater
than 25%.
Exhibit 6 - 2023E FCF Sensitivities Increasing from $85/bbl to $95/bbl WTI (Includes Hedging Impact)
50%
45%
41%
40%
40%
35%
32% 32%
30%
30% 28%
Percentage Change in FCF
27%
25% 25%
24%
25%
21% 21% 21%
20% 20% 19% 19%
20% 19% 19%
18% 17%
16% 16% 16% 16%

15% 15%
15% 14%
12%
11%
10%
10% 9%
6%
5%
0%


Canadian
firms are attractively priced (Exhibit 7). On strip, Canadian integrated/oil sands have an average 2023E DAFCF yield of 17%,
which is a 4% discount to the Supermajors, trading at a 13% DAFCF yield. Canadian oil-weighted SMID caps have an average 2023E DAFCF
yield of 33%, a 16% discount relative to their oil-weighted U.S. peers at 17%. Canadian and US gas-weighted E&Ps have an average 2023E
DAFCF yield of 27%. Canadian companies trade at a material discount to US large caps and Supermajors.
Exhibit 7 - Valuation metrics on futures strip pricing as of (August 17, 2022)
Company EV/DACF
DAFCF Yield Total S/H Total Capex1 D/CF
FCF Growth
Production
1 3 Cash Flow ($M)
(Total Capex) Return ($M) (x) Growth
Oil Weighted Canadian Large Cap 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 22E/21E 23E/22E 22E/21E 23E/22E
Cenovus Energy Inc. 3.9x 3.6x 17% 18% 9% 14% $12,773 $12,614 $3,513 $3,950 0.3x 0.2x 97% -6% 0% 1%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited 4.4x 4.7x 17% 15% 13% 12% $20,717 $17,753 $4,920 $4,900 0.5x 0.4x 54% -19% 6% 3%
Imperial Oil Limited 4.2x 4.6x 20% 17% 15% 17% $9,436 $7,121 $1,390 $1,500 0.0x 0.0x 109% -30% -2% 1%
Suncor Energy Inc. 3.6x 3.9x 19% 16% 13% 13% $18,019 $15,276 $5,230 $5,230 0.5x 0.4x 127% -21% 3% 5%
Average 4.0x 4.2x 18% 17% 12% 14% $15,236 $13,191 $3,763 $3,895 0.3x 0.3x 97% -19% 2% 3%
Oil Weighted Canadian SMID Cap
Baytex Energy Corporation 3.7x 2.8x 16% 21% 4% 9% $1,186 $1,364 $500 $565 0.8x 0.4x 59% 16% 5% 5%
Crescent Point Energy Corp. 2.8x 2.2x 21% 25% 13% 16% $2,338 $2,485 $940 $1,115 0.4x 0.2x 77% -2% -1% 3%
Enerplus Corporation 2.8x 2.3x 24% 25% 12% 16% $1,316 $1,255 $440 $500 0.3x 0.1x 113% -14% 8% 3%
MEG Energy Corp. 2.7x 3.5x 30% 20% 7% 9% $2,137 $1,416 $385 $415 0.5x 0.3x 275% -43% 0% 4%
Vermilion Energy Inc. 2.7x 0.9x 29% 92% 8% 16% $2,379 $3,634 $550 $550 0.4x -0.3x 236% 69% 3% 10%
Whitecap Resources Inc. 3.1x 2.9x 24% 18% 8% 14% $2,392 $2,251 $620 $1,100 0.7x 0.6x 164% -35% 25% 23%
Average 3.0x 2.4x 24% 33% 9% 13% $1,958 $2,067 $573 $708 0.5x 0.2x 154% -1% 7% 8%
International
Africa Oil Corp.2 1.7x 1.1x 54% 79% 7% 7% $364 $310 $9 $40 -0.9x -1.7x 93% -24% -13% -6%
Parex Resources Inc.2 1.6x 1.4x 21% 26% 14% 15% $887 $883 $550 $530 -0.4x -0.4x 12% 5% 15% 11%
2
International Petroleum Corporation 2.2x 2.2x 33% 35% 12% 15% $627 $461 $170 $100 -0.3x -0.6x 68% -21% 5% 2%
Average 1.8x 1.6x 36% 47% 11% 12% $626 $552 $243 $223 -0.5x -0.9x 58% -13% 3% 2%
Gas Weighted Canadian E&P
Advantage Energy Ltd. 3.7x 2.8x 16% 21% 7% 13% $579 $660 $245 $275 -0.1x -0.2x 284% 15% 15% 9%
ARC Resources Ltd. 3.2x 2.5x 20% 25% 14% 13% $4,070 $4,247 $1,462 $1,535 0.3x 0.0x 93% 4% 14% 3%
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. 2.3x 3.0x 32% 21% 4% 11% $1,148 $811 $291 $290 -0.1x -0.4x 185% -39% 0% 3%
Crew Energy Inc. 3.3x 2.5x 16% 25% 0% 0% $356 $396 $159 $155 0.6x 0.0x nmf 22% 25% 5%
Kelt Exploration Ltd. 3.2x 2.7x nmf nmf 0% 0% $371 $427 $336 $375 0.0x -0.1x nmf 47% 40% 22%
NuVista Energy Ltd. 2.7x 1.9x 21% 31% 6% 10% $957 $1,056 $418 $415 0.1x -0.3x nmf 19% 31% 24%
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. 2.8x 1.8x 20% 35% 5% 6% $963 $1,211 $430 $450 0.7x 0.0x 301% 43% 16% 10%
Paramount Resources Ltd. 3.0x 2.2x 15% 24% 5% 10% $1,260 $1,539 $664 $710 0.1x -0.2x 219% 39% 12% 16%
Spartan Delta Corp. 2.6x 1.8x 19% 32% 0% 7% $870 $1,030 $442 $450 0.0x -0.4x 287% 35% 53% 9%
Tourmaline Oil Corp. 4.8x 2.9x 14% 26% 10% 10% $5,250 $7,705 $1,656 $1,753 0.0x -0.4x 139% 66% 15% 7%
Average 3.2x 2.4x 19% 27% 5% 8% $1,582 $1,908 $610 $641 0.2x -0.2x 215% 25% 22% 11%
Royalty E&P
Freehold Royalties Ltd. 6.9x 6.6x 14% 15% 7% 8% $320 $302 $0 $0 0.3x -0.1x 69% -6% 20% 10%
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. 8.3x 8.7x 12% 12% 4% 5% $518 $465 $0 $0 0.6x 0.1x 89% -10% 29% 5%
Topaz Energy Corp. 8.5x 7.8x 12% 13% 5% 5% $352 $366 $4 $4 0.3x -0.3x 85% 4% 19% 8%
Average 7.9x 7.7x 13% 13% 5% 6% $397 $378 $1 $1 0.4x -0.1x 81% -4% 22% 8%
Supermajors2
BP p.l.c. 2.8x 3.0x 25% 20% 12% 13% $44,070 $35,505 $12,748 $13,677 0.5x 0.4x 74% -30% -32% -3%
Chevron Corporation 6.9x 7.1x 11% 10% 7% 9% $41,536 $38,883 $11,678 $13,353 0.4x 0.3x 31% -14% -3% 4%
ConocoPhillips 5.1x 5.1x 14% 13% 11% 12% $28,328 $25,713 $7,681 $8,214 0.3x 0.1x 99% -15% 11% 4%
Exxon Mobil Corporation 5.9x 8.0x 13% 8% 7% 8% $65,878 $49,388 $18,336 $19,720 0.4x 0.6x 49% -38% 1% -1%
Shell PLC 3.3x 3.5x 20% 17% 14% 14% $77,670 $61,256 $25,525 $26,176 0.5x 0.6x 43% -33% -11% 0%
TotalEnergies SE 3.3x 4.3x 22% 14% 11% 10% $47,799 $38,633 $15,366 $16,182 0.9x 1.0x 74% -31% 0% 1%
Average 4.6x 5.2x 17% 13% 9% 10% $50,880 $41,563 $15,222 $16,220 0.5x 0.5x 61% -27% -6% 1%
Oil Weighted U.S. E&P2
APA Corporation 4.1x 2.7x 15% 24% 12% 18% $4,982 $5,968 $1,723 $1,988 1.2x 0.7x 38% 22% -5% 9%
Continental Resources, Inc. 3.9x 3.8x 16% 15% 2% 3% $7,546 $6,797 $2,817 $3,046 0.5x 0.2x 147% -21% 25% 8%
Devon Energy Corporation 5.3x 4.5x 14% 16% 11% 13% $9,225 $10,253 $2,633 $2,974 0.5x 0.3x 118% 10% 8% 12%
EOG Resources, Inc. 5.9x 5.2x 10% 12% 7% 7% $12,443 $13,132 $4,623 $5,195 -0.1x -0.3x 43% 1% 11% 6%
Diamondback Energy, Inc. 4.5x 4.0x 16% 17% 14% 13% $6,484 $6,465 $1,834 $1,892 0.9x 0.7x 92% -2% 2% 3%
Hess Corporation 8.8x 7.3x 5% 5% 3% 3% $5,431 $5,739 $2,705 $3,297 0.7x 0.5x 119% -10% 10% 21%
Marathon Oil Corporation 3.9x 3.3x 19% 22% 16% 15% $5,487 $4,782 $1,313 $1,415 0.4x 0.4x 91% -19% -1% -1%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation 5.4x 5.3x 14% 13% 6% 7% $18,230 $15,042 $4,212 $4,663 1.5x 1.5x 54% -26% -1% 3%
Ovintiv Inc 3.6x 2.1x 16% 31% 9% 17% $4,341 $5,960 $1,800 $2,000 0.8x 0.2x 50% 56% -6% 0%
Pioneer Natural Resources Company 5.2x 5.6x 14% 11% 15% 11% $12,607 $11,263 $3,706 $4,278 0.3x 0.3x 231% -22% 5% 6%
Average 5.1x 4.4x 14% 17% 9% 11% $8,678 $8,540 $2,736 $3,075 0.7x 0.4x 98% -1% 5% 7%
Gas Weighted U.S. E&P2
Antero Resources Corporation 3.1x 2.0x 26% 41% 10% 13% $4,215 $4,672 $825 $875 0.1x -0.4x 310% 12% 0% 4%
Chesapeake Energy Corporation 3.3x 2.4x 19% 28% 15% 24% $4,855 $6,023 $1,805 $2,050 0.4x 0.1x nmf 30% 48% 5%
CNX Resources Corporation 3.5x 2.9x 20% 22% 19% 20% $1,459 $1,428 $500 $550 1.4x 1.3x 80% -8% 0% -2%
EQT Corporation 4.7x 2.1x 15% 39% 10% 15% $4,613 $7,859 $1,323 $1,515 0.8x 0.0x 234% 93% 8% 1%
National Fuel Gas Co. 6.7x 5.2x 5% 9% 3% 3% $1,275 $1,538 $846 $795 1.7x 1.1x 216% 73% 7% 6%
Range Resources Corp. 3.9x 3.3x 21% 24% 5% 15% $2,424 $2,442 $483 $525 0.6x 0.3x 211% -1% 0% 3%
Southwestern Energy Company 3.5x 2.2x 12% 25% 1% 7% $3,527 $4,640 $2,172 $2,224 1.2x 0.5x 191% 78% 39% 0%
Average 4.1x 2.9x 17% 27% 9% 14% $3,195 $4,086 $1,136 $1,219 0.9x 0.4x 207% 40% 15% 2%
Global E&P Average 4.5x 3.7x 16% 22% 7% 10% $4,205 $4,474 $1,381 $1,523 0.5x 0.2x 153% 17% 15% 7%
Note: See Appendix 1.2 for futures strip pricing as of August 17, 2022.
Source: Factset; Scotiabank GBM estimates.


Appendix
1.1 — FCF Sensitivity Details
Notes:
1. Other cash outflows includes lease principle payments, ARO spending, and capitalized G&A were
not already included in cash flow or capex.
2. Net debt calculated as bank debt, notes, convertible debentures, and preferred shares + working
capital deficit (surplus) as at YE 2023; EBITDA calculated as revenue (pre-hedging) +/- realized
hedging gains (losses) - royalties - opex - transportation - G&A (excl. share-based comp) - other
cash costs. Excludes FX and unrealized hedging gains/losses.
3. DAFCF Yield calculated as (DACF - capex - other cash outflows) / enterprise value.
4. DAFCF and FCF yields include the impact of hedging gains and losses.
5. FCF yield is calculated as (cash flow - capex - other cash outflows) / market capitalization.
6. SBB are calculated as a percent of the 2022 year-end basic shares outstanding.
7. Sum of dividend yields and percentage of shares repurchased.
Scenario Price Assumptions

WTI WCS Diff NYH321 FX TTF
Scenarios (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) (US$/CDN$) (C$/mcf)
Case 1 $65.00 ($14.00) $25.00 $0.76 $40.00
Case 2 $75.00 ($15.00) $27.50 $0.77 $50.00
Case 3 $85.00 ($16.00) $30.00 $0.78 $60.00
Case 4 $95.00 ($17.00) $32.50 $0.79 $70.00
Case 5 $105.00 ($18.00) $35.00 $0.80 $80.00
Static Commodity Assumptions

2023E
Brent-WTI Diff (US$/bbl) $5.00
Ed. Par Diff (US$/bbl) ($4.00)
Condensate Diff (US$/bbl) ($3.00)
SCO Diff (US$/bbl) ($2.00)
HH (US$/MMbtu) $5.50
AECO Diff (US$/mcf) ($1.50)
NBP-TTF Diff (C$/mcf) ($1.00)


Appendix
1.2 — Futures Strip Pricing as of August 17, 2022
Notes:
1. Total capex is defined as sustaining capex plus growth capital.
2. Cash flow and total capex estimates are in USD.
3. Total S/H returns equals SBB + Dividends.
Commodity Assumptions
Strip Pricing, 08/17/22 2022E 2023E
WTI (US$/bbl) $100.05 $87.88
Brent (US$/bbl) ($2.76) ($4.21)
WCS Diff (US$/bbl) ($16.89) ($17.44)
WCS Diff (% of WTI) (17%) (20%)
Maya (US$/bbl) $91.90 $78.90
Ed. Par Diff (US$/bbl) ($2.76) ($4.21)
Condensate Diff (US$/bbl) ($2.29) ($4.19)

SCO Diff (US$/bbl) $2.58 $2.50
NYH321 (US$/bbl) $42.80 $30.19
HH (US$/MMbtu) $7.43 $6.33
AECO (C$/mcf) $6.20 $5.82
TTF (C$/mcf) $61.06 $81.79
NBP (C$/mcf) $51.95 $81.95
FX (US$/CDN$) $0.78 $0.78
Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.


Pertinent Data

APA Corporation (APA-Q; US$36.15)
Valuation: Derived from a combination of our NAV, EV/after-tax cash flow, and free cash flow yield
estimates
Key Risks: Oil and natural gas prices, execution risk

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T; C$23.64)
Valuation: 12.0% 2023E DAFCF yield
Key Risks: Commodity prices, crack spreads, timing of projects, and project execution.

Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG-T; C$9.91)
Key Risks: Crude oil and natural gas prices; CAD/USD exchange rate; drilling program success.

Enerplus Corporation (ERF-T; C$19.19)

Key Risks: Crude oil and natural gas prices; CAD/USD exchange rate; drilling program success.

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO-T; C$61.54)
Key Risks: Commodity prices, crack spreads, timing of projects, and project execution.

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO-N; US$24.46)
estimates

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR-N; US$36.12)
estimates

Ovintiv Inc (OVV-N; US$49.55)
Key Risks: Commodity prices, timing of projects, and project execution.

Shell PLC (SHEL-N; US$52.86)
estimates
Key Risks: Oil and natural gas prices, refining and chemical margins, execution risk

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T; C$33.11)
Valuation: 24.6% 2023E DAFCF Yield
Key Risks: Crude oil and natural gas prices; foreign exchange rates; drilling program success; political/
regulatory.


Appendix A: Important Disclosures
Company Disclosures (see legend below)*

Advantage Energy Ltd. V0185
Antero Resources Corporation I, O4
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. O3
Canadian Natural Resources Limited O1, O3
Cenovus Energy Inc. G, I, N1, U, V0181
Coterra Energy Inc. L, N1, N2
Crescent Point Energy Corp. V0151, V0168
Devon Energy Corporation HH
Diamondback Energy, Inc. G, HH, N1, U
Enerplus Corporation J, V0192
EQT Corporation L, N2
Exxon Mobil Corporation V0190

Freehold Royalties Ltd. G, I, U
Hess Corporation N2
Imperial Oil Limited VS0589
Marathon Oil Corporation HH, L, N2
Murphy Oil Corporation J, V0193
Occidental Petroleum Corporation G, N1, U
Ovintiv Inc N2
Pioneer Natural Resources Company HH, I, L, N2
PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. G, I, U
Spartan Delta Corp. I
Suncor Energy Inc. O1, O3, V0188
Topaz Energy Corp. I
Tourmaline Oil Corp. I, O3, V0173
Vermilion Energy Inc. G, I, J, N1, O1, U, V0179
We, Jason Bouvier, Paul Y. Cheng and Kevin Fisk, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers that
we analyze accurately reflect our personal views and (2) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed by us in this report.
This document has been prepared by Research Analysts employed by The Bank of Nova Scotia and/or its affiliates. The Bank of Nova Scotia,
its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "Scotiabank." "Scotiabank" together with "Global Banking and Markets"
is the marketing name of the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets business of The Bank of Nova Scotia and its
affiliates. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets produces research reports under a single marketing identity referred to as "globally
branded research" under U.S. rules. This research is produced on a single global research platform with one set of rules which meet the
most stringent standards set by regulators in the various jurisdictions in which the research reports are produced. In addition, the Research
Analysts who produce the research reports, regardless of location, are subject to one set of policies designed to meet the most stringent
rules established by regulators in the various jurisdictions where the research reports are produced.
Scotiabank relies on information barriers to control the flow of non-public or proprietary information contained in one or more areas within
Scotiabank into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Scotiabank. In addition, Scotiabank has implemented procedures to prevent
research independence being compromised by any interactions they may have with other business areas of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The
compensation of the Research Analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by Scotiabank Research Management and
senior management (not including investment or corporate banking).
Research Analyst compensation is not based on investment or corporate banking revenues; however, compensation may relate to the
revenues of Scotiabank as a whole, of which investment banking, corporate banking, sales and trading are a part. Scotiabank Research will
initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Scotiabank Research Management. Scotiabank Research has independent
supervisory oversight and does not report to the corporate or investment banking functions of Scotiabank.


For
Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research Analyst Standards and Disclosure Policies, please visit www.gbm.scotiabank.com/
disclosures.
For additional questions, please contact Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research, 4 King St W, 12th Flr, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 1A1.
Time of dissemination: August 22, 2022, 06:31 ET. Time of production: August 21, 2022, 19:57 ET. Note: Time of dissemination is defined as
the time at which the document was disseminated to clients. Time of production is defined as the time at which the Supervisory Analyst
approved the document.
*Legend
G Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering in the past 12 months.
HH The Head of Equity Research or a Supervisory Analyst owns securities of this issuer in his or her own account or in a related
account.
I Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months.
J Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the
next 3 months.
L Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months.
N1
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months.
N2 Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months.
O1 Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding
equity securities of this issuer.
O3 The Bank of Nova Scotia and its affiliates collectively have a net long position in excess of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of
the issuer.
O4 The Bank of Nova Scotia and its affiliates collectively have a net short position in excess of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of
the issuer.
U Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or
debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to, this issuer.
V0151 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Crescent Point Energy Corp in connection with the announced sale of its
southeast Saskatchewan non-core assets.
V0168 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Crescent Point Energy Corp. in relation to the announced acquisition of the
Kaybob Duverney Assets from Shell Canada Energy, an affiliate of Royal Dutch Shell plc.
V0173 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Tourmaline Oil Corp. in the announced agreement to acquire privately owned
Black Swan Energy Ltd.
V0179 Scotia Capital Inc. acted as financial advisor to Vermilion Energy Inc. on the Corrib Acquisition.
V0181 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Cenovus Energy Inc. on the announced sale of its Tucker oil sands asset to
Strathcona Resources Ltd.
V0185 Scotia Capital Inc. acted as advisor to Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage Energy Ltd., for financing in relation to the announced
$300 Million Investment Agreement with Brookfield Renewable.
V0188 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Suncor Energy Inc. in relation to the announced sale of Suncor Energy Norge AS.
V0190 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Exxon Mobil Corporation in relation to the announced sale of its Romanian
upstream affiliate to Romgaz.
V0192 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Enerplus Corporation in relation to the announced sale of certain Canadian
assets located in Alberta to Journey Energy Inc.
V0193 Scotia Capital Inc. is acting as financial advisor to Murphy Exploration and Production Company, owned by Murphy Oil Corporation,
in relation to the acquisition of additional working interests in the non-operated Lucius field, owned by Inpex Corporation.
VS0589 Research Associate Analyst Kevin Fisk visited the Kearl oil sands project, in Wood Buffalo, Alberta, on March 19, 2019. Full payment
was received from the issuer for the travel-related expenses incurred by the Research Associate to visit this site.


Rating and Price Target History
APA Corporation (APA-Q) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

06-18-2019 01-23-2020 03-13-2020 07-13-2020 07-31-2020 09-23-2020 01-14-2021 05-10-2021 07-15-2021 11-17-2021 01-13-2022
Price: 28.64 Price: 30.27 Price: 8.07 Price: 12.52 Price: 15.35 Price: 11.10 Price: 18.35 Price: 21.89 Price: 18.47 Price: 27.66 Price: 32.09
Rating: CS Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: NA Target: 37.00 Target: 12.00 Target: 14.00 Target: 18.00 Target: 16.00 Target: 20.00 Target: 23.00 Target: 24.00 Target: 36.00 Target: 38.00
60
50
40
Price (USD)
30
20
10
0
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22
02-23-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-09-2022

Price: 30.83 Price: 38.63 Price: 43.98 Price: 37.53
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 40.00 Target: 45.00 Target: 50.00 Target: 60.00
*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Ratings Legend: FS=Focus Stock; SO=Sector Outperform; SP=Sector Perform; SU=Sector Underperform; T=Tender; UR=Under Review; CS=Coverage Suspended; DC=Discontinued Coverage
Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates; FactSet.
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 06-11-2020 07-13-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 06-09-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021 11-19-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 15.00 Target: 14.50 Target: 5.00 Target: 6.50 Target: 7.00 Target: 9.25 Target: 12.00 Target: 13.00 Target: 14.00 Target: 16.50 Target: 19.00
35
30
25
Price (CAD)
20
15
10
5
0
01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022




Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)
06-27-2019 10-08-2019 11-01-2019 01-14-2020 03-17-2020 04-07-2020 05-07-2020 06-15-2020 01-14-2021 02-18-2021 02-23-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO
14
12
10
Price (CAD)
8
6
4
2
0
06-09-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

Price: 5.53 Price: 6.34 Price: 8.03 Price: 9.69 Price: 9.98 Price: 13.46
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO
Target: 6.75 Target: 7.50 Target: 8.50 Target: 11.00 Target: 11.50 Target: 15.00

Enerplus Corporation (ERF-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

08-12-2019 01-14-2020 03-17-2020 04-07-2020 06-15-2020 07-13-2020 01-14-2021 04-08-2021 04-15-2021 06-09-2021 07-15-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP
25
20
Price (CAD)
15
10
0
08-25-2021 10-14-2021 11-19-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

Price: 7.00 Price: 11.48 Price: 12.08 Price: 14.18 Price: 17.96 Price: 17.45 Price: 22.63
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO
Target: 10.00 Target: 13.50 Target: 15.00 Target: 16.00 Target: 19.00 Target: 20.00 Target: 25.00



Imperial Oil Limited (IMO-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

06-27-2019 10-08-2019 01-14-2020 04-07-2020 10-13-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 05-03-2021 06-09-2021 07-15-2021
Price: 35.87 Price: 32.04 Price: 35.04 Price: 17.12 Price: 16.28 Price: 27.88 Price: 32.05 Price: 37.37 Price: 41.25 Price: 35.09
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
Target: 40.00 Target: 37.00 Target: 36.00 Target: 23.00 Target: 22.00 Target: 32.00 Target: 35.00 Target: 39.00 Target: 42.00 Target: 43.00
80
70
60
Price (CAD)
50
40
30
20
10
10-14-2021 11-19-2021 01-13-2022 02-01-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

Price: 42.33 Price: 42.76 Price: 49.81 Price: 54.80 Price: 57.92 Price: 65.06 Price: 72.54
Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 48.00 Target: 52.00 Target: 56.00 Target: 59.00 Target: 68.00 Target: 72.00 Target: 80.00

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO-N) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

06-18-2019 01-23-2020 02-14-2020 03-11-2020 07-13-2020 09-23-2020 11-19-2020 01-14-2021 02-26-2021 07-15-2021 08-06-2021
Rating: CS Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO
35
30
25
Price (USD)
20
15
10
5
0
11-17-2021 01-13-2022 02-18-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-06-2022

Price: 16.09 Price: 18.57 Price: 21.87 Price: 24.09 Price: 26.88 Price: 28.15
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 19.00 Target: 20.00 Target: 28.00 Target: 30.00 Target: 32.00 Target: 37.00



Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR-N) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

08-15-2019 11-12-2019 01-23-2020 01-31-2020 03-13-2020 07-13-2020 09-23-2020 11-19-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 05-21-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SU Rating: SU Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO
50
40
Price (USD)
30
20
10
0
07-15-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022

Price: 20.88 Price: 28.69 Price: 30.67 Price: 36.70 Price: 43.78
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 30.00 Target: 35.00 Target: 37.00 Target: 45.00 Target: 50.00

Ovintiv Inc (OVV-N) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

06-27-2019 11-22-2019 01-27-2020 04-07-2020 07-13-2020 10-13-2020 01-14-2021 04-15-2021 06-09-2021 07-15-2021 10-14-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
80
70
60
Price (USD)
50
40
30
20
10
0
01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022




Shell PLC (SHEL-N) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

07-23-2018 09-23-2020 10-30-2020 11-19-2020 01-14-2021 02-12-2021 04-15-2021 07-15-2021 07-30-2021 10-14-2021 10-29-2021
Rating: CS Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SU Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
80
70
60
Price (USD)
50
40
30
20
11-17-2021 02-10-2022 04-18-2022 05-09-2022


Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

07-30-2019 10-08-2019 11-01-2019 01-14-2020 03-09-2020 03-17-2020 04-07-2020 06-15-2020 01-14-2021 03-09-2021 03-22-2021
Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SO Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP
60
50
40
Price (CAD)
30
20
10
0
07-15-2021 10-14-2021 11-30-2021 01-13-2022 02-28-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022 06-27-2022 07-14-2022
Price: 9.26 Price: 13.59 Price: 12.76 Price: 18.90 Price: 23.70 Price: 30.30 Price: 29.10 Price: 31.41 Price: 25.74 Price: 24.89
Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SP Rating: SO Rating: SO
Target: 12.50 Target: 15.00 Target: 16.00 Target: 20.00 Target: 25.00 Target: 27.00 Target: 30.00 Target: 36.00 Target: 36.00 Target: 38.00



Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings

Scotiabank has a three-tiered rating system, with ratings of Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector Underperform. Each Research
Analyst assigns a rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the Research Analyst that includes, but is not
limited to, stocks covered by the Research Analyst.
The rating assigned to each security covered in this report is based on the Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research Analyst’s 12-
month view on the security. Research Analysts may sometimes express in research reports shorter-term views on these securities that may
impact the price of the equity security in a manner directly counter to the Research Analyst’s 12-month view. These shorter-term views
are based upon catalysts or events that may have a shorter-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in research
reports, including but not limited to the inherent volatility of the marketplace. Any such shorter-term views expressed in research report are
distinct from and do not affect the Research Analyst’s 12-month view and are clearly noted as such.
Ratings

Sector Outperform (SO) Other Ratings

The stock is expected to outperform the average 12-month total
return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by Under Review – The rating has been temporarily placed under
the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the review, until sufficient information has been received and assessed
analyst. by the analyst.
Sector Perform (SP) Tender – As of January 25, 2021, Scotiabank GBM discontinued the
Tender rating.
The stock is expected to perform approximately in line with the
average 12-month total return of the analyst’s coverage universe or Risk Ranking
an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to,
The Speculative risk ranking reflects exceptionally high financial
stocks covered by the analyst.
and/or operational risk, exceptionally low predictability of financial
Sector Underperform (SU) results, and exceptionally high stock volatility. The Director of
Research and the Supervisory Analyst jointly make the final
The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total
determination of the Speculative risk ranking.
return of the analyst’s coverage universe or an index identified by
the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the
analyst.
Focus Stock (FS)

As of April 29, 2019, Scotiabank GBM discontinued the Focus
Stock rating. A stock assigned this rating represented an analyst’s
best idea(s); stocks in this category were expected to significantly
outperform the average 12-month total return of the analyst’s
coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that
included, but was not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst.
Ratings Distribution
As of July 31, 2022
Companies Rated Investment Banking Service Provided
in Each Category in the Last 12 Months
Rating Count Percentage Count Percentage
Sector Outperform 273 52% 81 30%
Sector Perform 228 44% 50 22%
Sector Underperform 19 4% 1 5%
For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than
“buy,” “hold/neutral” and “sell,” to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector
Underperform ratings are based on the criteria above, but for this purpose could be equated to buy, neutral and sell ratings, respectively.


General Disclosures
This document is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person
or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,
availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Scotiabank to any registration or licensing requirement within
such jurisdiction. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any
financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy.
No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information
contained in this document except with respect to information concerning Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX: BNS; NYSE: BNS). This document is not
intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this document. Scotiabank does
not undertake to update or keep current the information contained herein, nor make any commitment as to the frequency of publication.
If you are affected by EU MiFID or the onshored UK MiFID regime, you must advise us in writing at trade_supervision@scotiabank.com.
Any opinions expressed in this document may change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business
areas or groups of Scotiabank. Any statements contained in this document attributed to a third party represent Scotiabank’s interpretation
of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and
interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this document constitutes a representation that any investment
strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor's individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal
recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own independent judgement in making their
investment decisions and carefully consider any risks involved.
The financial instruments that may be described in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of
investors. Instruments such as options, derivative products, and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments
is considered risky. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may involve a high degree of risk and may be highly volatile in response to
fluctuations in interest rates or other market conditions. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price, or income
of any security or related instrument referred to in this document. For investment advice, trade execution, or other enquiries, clients should
contact their local sales representative. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up, and investors may not get back
the full amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
To the full extent permitted by law, neither Scotiabank nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for
any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information or this document. Nothing in this document constitutes financial,
investment, tax, accounting or legal advice. Investors should seek their own legal, financial and tax advice regarding the appropriateness
of investing in any securities or pursuing any strategies discussed in the document. Any prices stated in this document are for information
purposes only and do not represent real-time valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. There is no representation
that any transaction can or could have been effected at those prices, and any prices do not necessarily reflect Scotiabank's internal books
and records or theoretical model-based valuations and may be based on certain assumptions. Different assumptions by Scotiabank or
any other source may yield substantially different results. All pricing of securities in reports is based on the closing price of the securities'
principal marketplace on the night before the publication date, unless otherwise explicitly stated.
The Research Analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this document may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and
other parties for the purpose of gathering, applying and interpreting market information.
In the normal course of offering investment and banking products and services to clients, Scotiabank may act in several capacities (including
issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, index sponsor, swap counterparty, and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to
a product, giving rise to conflicts of interest. Scotiabank uses controls such as information barriers to manage conflicts should they arise.
Scotiabank and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may have long or short positions (including hedging and trading positions),
trade as principal and buy and sell in instruments or derivatives identified herein; such transactions or positions may be inconsistent with
the opinions expressed in this document.
Recipients of this document should expect that Scotiabank will from time to time perform services (including investment banking or capital
market services) in connection with the services and activities described in this document and that they perform services for and engage in
transactions with other market participants, including the issuers of certain of the investments underlying the transactions herein.
The information in this document has been prepared without taking into account any investor's objectives, financial situation or needs, and
investors should, before acting on the information, conduct independent due diligence when making an investment decision and consider
the appropriateness of the information, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. For further information, please
contact your sales representative.
Scotiabank specifically prohibits the redistribution of this document in whole or in part without Scotiabank's prior written permission, and
Scotiabank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Images may depict objects or elements that are
protected by third-party copyright, trademarks and other intellectual property rights.


Equity
research reports published by Scotiabank are initially and simultaneously made available electronically to intended recipients through
its proprietary research website, ScotiaView, e-mail, and through third-party aggregators. The mediums in which research is disseminated
to clients may vary depending on client preference as to the frequency and manner of receiving research reports. Institutional clients with
questions regarding distribution of equity research or who wish to access the proprietary model used to produce this report should contact
Scotiabank at 1-800-208-7666.
A list of all investment recommendations in an equity security or issuer that have been disseminated during the preceding 12 months is
available at the following location: www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures.
Additional Disclosures
Australia: This report is provided in Australia by the Bank of Nova Scotia, an APRA-regulated Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution (Foreign
Bank ADI) holding an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL).
Canada: Distributed to eligible Canadian persons by Scotia Capital Inc., a registered investment dealer in Canada.
Chile: This report is distributed by Scotia Corredora de Bolsa Chile Limitada, a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
China: The research report may not be offered, sold or delivered, or offered or sold or delivered to any person for reoffering or resale or
redelivery, in any such case directly or indirectly, in Mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, “China”) in contravention of
any applicable laws.
This research report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in Mainland China (excluding Hong
Kong, Macau and Taiwan, "China") to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in China.
The issuer does not represent that this research report may be lawfully distributed, or that any securities may be lawfully offered, in
compliance with any applicable registration or other requirements in Mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, "China"), or
pursuant to an exemption available thereunder, or assume any responsibility for facilitating any such distribution or offering. In particular,
no action has been taken by the issuer which would permit a public offering of any securities or distribution of this document in China.
Accordingly, the securities are not being offered or sold within China by means of this research report or any other document. Neither this
research report nor any advertisement or other offering material may be distributed or published in China, except under circumstances that
will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations.
Colombia: This report is distributed in Colombia by The Bank of Nova Scotia (“Scotiabank”) or Scotia Capital Inc. (“SCI”) through the
Representation in Scotiabank Colpatria S.A. and/or Scotia Securities (Colombia) S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa authorized by the
Financial Superintendence of Colombia via Resolutions 1377 of 2010, 058 of 2014, 226 of 2015 and 1070 of 2021. This document does not
contain any type of investment advice nor does it aim to provide advice. This report is prepared by analysts employed by Scotiabank and
certain of its affiliates, including SCI. This report is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose
by the recipient of this report or provided to any person or entity other than the recipient of this report.
Hong Kong: This report is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia Hong Kong Branch, which is authorized by the Securities and Future
Commission to conduct Type 1, Type 4 and Type 6 regulated activities and regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Japan: This research report is provided for information purposes only and it is not intended to solicit any orders for securities transactions or
commodities futures contracts. While we believe that the data and information contained in this research report are obtained from reliable
sources, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data and information.
Mexico: The information contained in this report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to influence the decision of the
addressee in any way whatsoever with respect to an investment in a certain type of security, financial instrument, commodity, futures
contract, issuer, or market, and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities
futures contracts. Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, is not responsible for the outcome of any
investment performed based on the contents of this research report. The analysis contained in this research report reflects exclusively the
point of view of the Analysts responsible for its preparation. The Analysts did not receive any compensation other than from the Financial
Entity or Investment Advisor to which they provide their services or from legal entities that belong to the same Financial Group or Business
Group.
Peru: This report is distributed by Scotiabank Peru SAA, a subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia. This report is prepared by analysts
employed by The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates, including Scotia Capital Inc.
Singapore: For investors in the Republic of Singapore, this document is provided via an arrangement with BNS Asia Limited pursuant to
Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. The material contained in this document is intended solely for accredited, expert or
institutional investors, as defined under the Securities and Futures Act 2001. If there are any matters arising from, or in connection with this


material,
please contact BNS Asia Limited, located at 1 Raffles Quay, #20-01 North Tower, One Raffles Quay, Singapore 048583, telephone:
+65 6305 8388.
This document is intended for general circulation only and any recommendation that may be contained in this document concerning an
investment product does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular
person, and advice should be sought from a financial adviser based in Singapore regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking
into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person in receipt of the recommendation,
before the person makes a commitment to purchase the investment product.
BNS Asia Limited and/or its affiliates may have in the past done business with or may currently be doing or seeking to do business with
the companies or issuers covered in this report. The information provided or to be provided or actions taken by or to be taken by BNS Asia
Limited and/or its affiliates in such circumstances may be different from or contrary to the discussion set out in this report.
United Kingdom and the rest of Europe: Except as otherwise specified herein, this material is distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia,
London branch (“BNS London”), Scotiabank Europe plc, or Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company to persons who are eligible
counterparties or professional clients. BNS London is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to regulation by
the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorised by the PRA and subject to
regulation by the FCA and PRA. Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
(CBI).
United States: United States: Distributed to U.S. persons by Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or by an authorized subsidiary or affiliate of The Bank of
Nova Scotia that is not registered as a U.S. broker-dealer (a ‘non-U.S. affiliate’) to major U.S. institutional investors only. Scotia Capital (USA)
Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a document prepared by its non-U.S. affiliate (s) when distributed to U.S. persons by Scotia
Capital (USA) Inc. To the extent that a U.S. person wishes to transact in the securities mentioned in this document through Scotiabank, such
transactions must be effected through Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., and not through a non-U.S. affiliate. The information in this document
has not been approved, disapproved, or recommended by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), any state securities
commission in the United States or any other U.S. or non-U.S. regulatory authority. None of these authorities has passed on or endorsed the
merits or the accuracy or adequacy of this document. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense in the United States.
™ Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with "Global Banking and Markets,"
is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and
certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including Scotia Capital Inc., Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., Scotiabank Europe plc,
Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company, Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank
Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members
of the Scotiabank Group and authorized users of the mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Scotia
Capital Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of
Canada. Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and is a member of FINRA, NYSE, NFA and SIPC. BNS London
is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and
limited regulation by the PRA. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorised by the PRA and subject to regulation by the FCA and PRA. Scotiabank
(Ireland) Designated Activity Company is authorised and regulated by the CBI. Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple,
Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat , Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat
Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
© The Bank of Nova Scotia 2022

This report and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced
in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred
to without the prior, express consent of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets. The Bank of Nova Scotia, Scotiabank, and Global Banking
and Markets logo and names are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of The Bank of Nova Scotia. All rights reserved.


Scotia Sensitivities Deck

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Scotia Sensitivities Deck

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

E&P

Shareholder Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals

Analyst Team Link to ScotiaView KEY POINTS

Jason Bouvier, CFA | Analyst

Austin Glenn | Associate

Jordan Monahan | Associate

Betty Zhang, CFA | Associate

Brian Zhang, CFA | Associate

• Integrated/Oil Sands: CVE, IMO, and SHEL

• Large Caps: MUR and OVV

• SMID Caps: VET

Top picks. Our top oil-weighted picks include:

• Integrated/Oil Sands: IMO, CVE, and SHEL

• Large Caps: APA, MRO, MUR, and OVV

• SMID Caps: CPG, ERF, and VET

Exhibit 1 - Relative Performance

Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.

Exhibit 2 - 2023E Integrated/Oil Sands CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

Note: See Appendix 1.1 for FCF sensitivity details.

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 3 - 2023E Large Cap CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

Other Cash Outflows ($M)1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $30 $0 $0

Note: See Appendix 1.1 for FCF sensitivity details.

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 4 - 2023E SMID Cap CF/FCF Sensitivity (Includes Hedging Impact)

Note: See Appendix 1.1 for FCF sensitivity details.

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

16% 16% 16% 16%

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

Exhibit 7 - Valuation metrics on futures strip pricing as of (August 17, 2022)

Source: Factset; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

7. Sum of dividend yields and percentage of shares repurchased.

Scenario Price Assumptions

Static Commodity Assumptions

Source: Scotiabank GBM estimates.

1. Total capex is defined as sustaining capex plus growth capital.

2. Cash flow and total capex estimates are in USD.

3. Total S/H returns equals SBB + Dividends.

Condensate Diff (US$/bbl) ($2.29) ($4.19)

Source: FactSet; Scotiabank GBM.

Enerplus Corporation (ERF-T; C$19.19)

Appendix A: Important Disclosures

Company Disclosures (see legend below)*

Exxon Mobil Corporation V0190

Rating and Price Target History

APA Corporation (APA-Q) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

02-23-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-09-2022

Target: 40.00 Target: 45.00 Target: 50.00 Target: 60.00

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

06-09-2021 10-14-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Enerplus Corporation (ERF-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

08-25-2021 10-14-2021 11-19-2021 01-13-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO-T) as of August 19, 2022 (in CAD)

10-14-2021 11-19-2021 01-13-2022 02-01-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 06-08-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.

Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO-N) as of August 19, 2022 (in USD)

11-17-2021 01-13-2022 02-18-2022 03-08-2022 04-18-2022 05-06-2022

*Represents the value(s) that changed.