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Quarter 4 - Week 1 & 2: Length of Confidence Interval and Appropriate Sample Size
Quarter 4 - Week 1 & 2: Length of Confidence Interval and Appropriate Sample Size
Quarter 4 - Week 1 & 2: Length of Confidence Interval and Appropriate Sample Size
What is It
Definition of Terms
1. Confidence Interval – In statistics, this refers to the probability that a Population parameter will fall between a set of
values for a certain proportion of times. Confidence intervals measure the degree of uncertainty or certainty in a sampling
method. They can take any number of probability limits, with the most common being a 95% or 99% confidence level.
2. Narrowness of the Interval - This pertains to a small width in relation to the length of the confidence interval.
Length of Confidence Interval (LCI)
This refers to the absolute difference between the upper confidence limit (UCL) and the lower confidence limit (LCL)
Formula for LCI: 𝑳𝑪𝑰 = |𝑼𝑪𝑳 − 𝑳𝑪𝑳| = |𝑳𝑪𝑳 − 𝑼𝑪𝑳| Or 𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝑼𝑪𝑳 − 𝑳𝑪𝑳
STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY || 1
• What is the difference between the Confidence Level and Confidence interval?
The Confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the probability that the interval estimate contains a
parameter, it describes what percentage of intervals from many different samples contains the unknown population parameter.
The confidence level has its corresponding coefficient which is called confidence coefficients or critical value. These
coefficients are used to find the margin of error, for instance, the table below shows the corresponding coefficient confidence
level.
Confidence interval or interval estimate is a range of values that is used to estimate a parameter. This estimate may
or may not contain the true parameter value. For instance, we write it in this form
𝑳𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕 < 𝝁 < 𝑼𝒑𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕 or (𝑳𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕, 𝑼𝒑𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕)
The Lower limit is obtained by using the formula 𝑳𝑳 = 𝑿 ̅ − 𝑬, while the Upper limit is obtained by using the formula
̅ ̅
𝑼𝑳 = 𝑿 + 𝑬, where E is the Margin of Error and 𝑿 is the sample mean.
As mentioned earlier, the confidence coefficient is used on finding the margin of error, which is the range of values
above and below the sample statistic. For instance, Margin of error is obtained using the formula:
𝝈
𝑬 = 𝒛𝜶
𝟐 √𝒏
where, n = sample size 𝒛𝜶 = confidence coefficient 𝜎 = population standard deviation E = margin of error
𝟐
Margin of Error. Since no sample will be perfect, you need to decide how much error to allow. The confidence interval
determines this. The less error you’re willing to accept, the bigger the sample size needs to be.
The formula for INTERVAL ESTIMATE OF POPULATION MEAN (µ) with known variance and n ≥ 30:
𝝈 𝝈 𝝈 𝝈
̅ − 𝒛𝜶
(𝒙 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶
<𝝁<𝒙 ) 𝐨𝐫 (𝒙
̅−𝑬 <𝝁< 𝒙
̅ + 𝑬) 𝐨𝐫 (𝒙
̅ − 𝒛𝜶 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶
, 𝒙 )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
Example 1: Find the length of the confidence interval 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟓 < 𝒑 < 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔𝟎
Steps Solution
1. Determine the given UCL = 0.360 LCL = 0.275
2. Use the formula for length of confidence interval 𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝑼𝑪𝑳 − 𝑳𝑪𝑳
3. Substitute the given value, then perform the indicated operation. 𝐿𝐶𝐼 = 0.360 − 0.275
𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟓
Thus, the length of confidence interval is 0.085
Example 2: Find the length of the confidence interval. Upper Confidence Limit = 0.805
Lower Confidence Limit = 0.526
Solution:
𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝑼𝑪𝑳 − 𝑳𝑪𝑳
= 0.805 − 0.526 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟗 Thus, the length of confidence interval is 0.279
Example 3: Find the length of the confidence interval given the following data:
σ = 0.3, 𝒏 = 𝟕𝟎, 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍 = 𝟗𝟓%
Steps Solution
1. Determine the given. 𝜎 = 0.3, 𝑛 = 70, 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = 95%
2. Determine the confidence
coefficient or the critical Since the confidence level is 95%, looking at the table of 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄
value 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄 by 𝟐
𝟐 𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔
looking at the table above 𝟐
3. Substitute the values in the 𝝈 Use this formula to solve for the length of
𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝟐𝒛𝜶
formula and compute. 𝟐 √𝒏 confidence interval.
𝝈
𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝟐𝒛𝜶 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎 Substitute the computed value of 𝒛𝜶 , 𝜎 and n.
𝟐 √𝒏 𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝟐(𝟏. 𝟗𝟔) 𝟐
√𝟕𝟎 Then multiply 2(1.96)(0.3).
𝟏. 𝟏𝟕𝟔 Divide 1.176 by √70
𝑳𝑪𝑰 =
√𝟕𝟎
𝑳𝑪𝑰 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟒𝟎𝟔 Answer
Thus, the length of confidence interval is equal to 0.1406
STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY || 2
Example 4: The mean score of a random sample of 49 Grade 11 students who took the first periodic test is calculated to be 78.
The population variance is known to be 0.16.
a. Find the 90% confidence interval for the mean of the entire Grade 11 students.
b. Find the lower and upper confidence limits.
Steps Solution
1. Determine the given. 𝑥̅ = 78, 𝜎 2 = 0.16, 𝑛 = 49, confidence level=90%
2. Determine the confidence
coefficient or the critical value Since the confidence level is 90%, looking at the table of 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄
𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄 by looking at the 𝟐
𝟐 𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓 Hence, Using the Area under the Standard Normal
table. 𝟐
Curve Table, as 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑜w
Remember:
This table of 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄
𝟐
is only used when the
sample size is ≥ 30
3. Compute for the standard 𝜎 2 = 0.16
deviation 𝜎 = √0.16 = 0.4
𝝈 𝝈 𝟎. 𝟒
4. Solve for 𝒛𝜶 also known 𝑬 = 𝒛𝜶 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓
𝟐 √𝒏
𝟐 √𝒏 √𝟒𝟗
as Margin of error (E). 𝑬 = 0.094
5. Substitute the values of 𝑥̅ 𝝈 𝝈
̅ − 𝒛𝜶
𝒙 <𝝁<𝒙 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶
and 𝒛𝜶 for the confidence 𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
𝟐
𝟕𝟖 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟒 < 𝝁 < 𝟕𝟖 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟒
interval to identify the lower
𝟕𝟕. 𝟗𝟎𝟔 < 𝝁 < 𝟕𝟖. 𝟎𝟗𝟒
and upper confidence limit.
Lower Confidence Limit/LCL = 77.91
Upper Confidence Limit/UCL = 78.09
Example 5: Find the length of the confidence interval, given the following data: s = 6.5, n= 15, confidence level = 99%
Steps Solution
1. Determine the given. s = 6.5, n= 15, confidence level = 99%
2. Find the degree of freedomdf = n -1 df = 15 – 1
df = 14
3. Determine the confidence (1 − 𝛼)100% = 99% Find 𝛼 in equation (1 - 𝛼)100%=99% where in 99% is
coefficient, then find 𝒕𝜶 the confidence level.
𝟐
(1 − 𝛼) = 99% 100% of (1 − 𝛼) is (1 − 𝛼)
(1 − 𝛼) = 0.99 Change 99% into decimal number.
(1 − 𝛼) − 1 = 0.99 − 1 Subtraction property of equality
(− 𝛼)(−1) = (−0.01)(−1) Multiplication property of equality
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏
𝛼 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 Division property of equality
= = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓
2 𝟐
𝒕𝜶 = 𝟐. 𝟗𝟕𝟕 Hence, Using the t distribution critical values (t
𝟐 Table) at df = 14 and
𝛼
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓, as 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑙ow
2
Example 7: Find the margin of error (E) if the confidence interval is 10.25 < 𝜇 < 10.75.
Steps Solution
1. Subtract Upper confidence limit and Lower confidence UCL = 10.75 LCL = 10.25
limit. 10.75 – 10.25 = 0.50
2. Divide your answer by 2. 0.50
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
2
To solve for n, which is a sample size needed in estimating a population mean, do this. (Hint: Apply the appropriate properties of
equality.)
𝝈 𝒛𝜶(𝝈) Formula for the margin of error.
𝟐
𝑬 = 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝑬 =
𝟐 √𝒏 √𝒏
𝒛𝜶 ( 𝝈 ) Multiply both sides of the equation by √𝒏. Multiplication
𝟐
(√𝒏)𝑬 = ( ) (√𝒏) = (𝒛𝜶 (𝝈)) property of equality.
√𝒏 𝟐
Cancel √𝒏 on the right side
(𝒛𝜶 (𝝈))
Divide both sides of the equation by E. Division property of
(√𝒏)𝑬
=
𝟐 equality
𝑬 𝑬 Cancel E on the left side
(𝒛𝜶 (𝝈))
𝟐
√𝒏 =
𝑬
𝟐
𝒛𝜶 (𝝈)
𝟐
Square both sides to get n
𝟐
(√𝒏) = ( )
𝑬
𝒛𝜶 (𝝈)
𝟐
This is now the resulting formula for sample size needed
𝒏= ( 𝟐 ) in estimating a population mean.
𝑬
Formula in Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed when Estimating the Population Mean
𝟐
𝒛𝜶 ( 𝝈 )
𝟐
𝒏= ( )
𝑬
Since the value of 𝝈 is usually unknown, it can be estimated by the standard deviation (𝝈) from a prior sample.
𝑅
Alternatively, we may approximate the range R of observations in the population and make a conservative estimate of ≈ . In
4
any case, round up the value of obtained to ensure the sample size will be sufficient to achieve the specified reliability.
As the margin of error gets smaller, the sample size gets larger. Or you can say that one way to minimize the error
is by increasing the sample size. The same variation will be applied if the margin of error increases.
Moreover, if you reduce the level of confidence to 90% it will surely affect the sample size. Upon changing the level of
confidence to 90%, the critical value will change also. The changes in the level of confidence in the computation above tell you
that as the sample size gets smaller as your level of confidence decreases.
Example 2.
1. A sample size calculation determined that 2006.083 data points were necessary to represent the population. In this case,
2007 data points samples should be taken.
2. Suppose the calculated sample size is 409.14. What would be the sample size? Answer: 410
Example 3: A researcher wants to estimate the daily expenses of college students. He wants a 99% confidence level and a 40
margin of error. How many students must be randomly select if in the previous survey, 𝜎 = 99.50?
Steps Solution
1. Determine the given 99% confidence, E = 40, 𝜎 = 99.50
2. Determine the
confidence coefficient or Since the confidence level is 99%, looking at the table of 𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄
the critical value 𝟐
𝒛𝜶 = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟖
𝒛𝜶 𝒐𝒓 𝒛𝒄 by looking 𝟐
𝟐
at the table above
3. Substitute the values in 𝒛𝜶 (𝝈)
𝟐
2
the formula and 2.58(99.50)
𝟐 256.2125 2
𝒏= ( ) = ( ) =( )
compute. 𝑬 40 40
4. Round up the resulting
value to the nearest 𝑛 = 41.028 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒,
whole number. 𝒏 = 𝟒𝟐
The minimum sample size required to estimate an unknown population mean using the given data
is 42.
Example 5: A nurse at Lucena United Medical Center is interested in estimating the birth weight of infants. How large a sample
must be if she desires to be 98% confident that the true mean is within 3 ounces of the sample mean? The standard deviation of
birth weights is known to be 6 ounces.
Example 6: An investigator wants to estimate the caffeine consumption of senior high school students. How many students
would be required to ensure that a 95% confidence interval estimate for the mean caffeine intake (measured in mg) is within
15mg of the true mean? Assume that the standard deviation in caffeine intake is 68mg.
PERFORMANCE TASK 1
Learning Competency: 1. Compute for the length of the confidence interval (M11-12SP-IIIj-2)
2. Compute for an appropriate sample size using the length of interval (M11-12SP-IIIj-3)
I. Find the length of the confidence interval given the following data. Provide a clear solution.
1. 0.355 < p < 0.470
2. Upper confidence limit = 0.966
Lower confidence limit = 0.635
3. 𝜎= 0.3, n = 45, confidence level 98%
4. 𝜎= 0.5, n = 50, confidence level 95%
5. s = 3.5, n = 25, confidence interval = 95%
SUMMATIVE TEST 1
(Week 1 & 2: Length of Confidence Interval and Appropriate Sample Size)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.
21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30.
Read and analyze the following statement. Write only the letter of the correct answer on the table above.
1. What do you call a subset of a population?
A. estimation B. interval C. proportion D. sample
2. When alpha is 0.05, confidence level is equal to _________.
A. 10% B. 95% C. 90% D. 99%
3. For a 95% confidence level, the confidence coefficient is ± ____?
A. 1.645 B. 1.96 C. 2.33 D.2.58
4. Confidence interval is also known as _____________________.
A. interval estimate B. confidence coefficient C. interval coefficient D. confidence interval
5. What do you call the value resulting from subtracting the margin of error from the sample mean?
A. point estimate C. lower limit of the interval
B. interval estimate D. upper limit of the interval
6. Given: n= 200, = 35, and a 96% confidence level. Which of the following values is the length of the confidence
interval?
A. 10.15 B. 14.54 C. 15.23 D. 18.25
A survey on 200 HUMSS students of Bumasa Integrated High School shows that they read on an average of 15. 7 hours
per week. The margin of error is 2.2 hours at a 95% confidence level.
7. What is the sample mean?
A. 200 B. 95 C. 15.7 D. 2.2
8. What is the critical value 𝑧𝑐 ?
A. ±1.65 B. ±1.96 C. ±2.58 D. ±1.95
9. Which of the following intervals is the confidence interval?
A. (13.5, 17.9) B. (1.35, 1.79) C. (135, 179) D. (14.75, 16.65)
A random sample of 36 scores from the Statistics examination of TVL learners is taken and gives a sample mean of 68.
At a 90% level of confidence, the interval estimate of the population mean is between 67.18 and 68.82.
10. Which of the following values is the margin of error?
A. 0.90 B. 0.82 C. 0.68 D. 0.05
11. What is the length of the confidence interval in the given problem?
A. 1.64 B. 1.54 C. 2.46 D. 1.06
12. Which of the following terms describes the probability that the interval estimate contains parameters and what percentage
of intervals from many different samples contains the unknown population parameter?
A. margin of error B. confidence level C. confidence interval D. level of significance
13. The value added and subtracted from the mean in order to develop an interval estimate of the population parameter is
the_______.
A. confidence level B. margin of error C. parameter estimate D. interval estimate
A sample size of 50 has a mean of 20. The population standard deviation is 18 and the confidence level to be used is
95%.
20. What is the margin of error in the given statement?
A. 3.67 B. 4.99 C. 5.93 D. 6.22
21. What is the length of the confidence interval?
A. 1.44 B. 5.45 C. 7.76 D. 9.98
A sample of 100 students have an average expense of Php. 75 for a meal during weekdays. Past experience has revealed
that the population standard deviation is Php. 5. Find the interval estimate at 95% confidence level.
22. What is the margin of error?
A. 0.98 B. 0.29 C. 0.36 D. 0.76
23. Which of these is the correct estimation of the population mean?
A. 74.02 < 𝜇 < 75.98 C. 74.64 < 𝜇 < 75.36
B. B. 74.71 < 𝜇 < 75.29 D. 74.24 < 𝜇 < 75.76
The average amount by purchasing products of 255 customers in JYEL store is ₧150. The population standard deviation
is ₧ 65 with an 85% level of confidence.
24. Which of the following values is the critical value to be used in the given problem?
A. 1.44 B. 1.64 C. 1.75 D. 1.96
25. The customers of JYEL store purchases products in the average amount _________.
A. between ₧189.87 to ₧194.67 C. between ₧154.87 to ₧162.49
B. between ₧160.23 to ₧178.45 D. between ₧144.14 to ₧155.86
26. What is the sample size needed if the margin of error is 30 and the standard deviation of 45 with a 98% confidence level?
A. 10 B. 11 C. 12 D. 13
27. Which of the following variables is NOT needed in computing the minimum sample size for the estimation of the population
mean?
A. confidence level C. population standard deviation
B. sample mean D. margin of error
28. The value of confidence coefficient (𝒛𝜶 ) of 1.645 is used in sample size determination if a researcher wants to be
𝟐
_______% confident that the parameter is within the estimate.
A. 99 B. 95 C. 92 D. 90
29. How does the level of confidence affect the sample size? (Consider that other factors are constant)
A. The higher the level of confidence, the smaller the sample size required.
B. The lower the level of confidence, the larger the sample size required.
C. The lower the level of confidence, the smaller the sample size required.
D. The sample size remains constant in every level of confidence.
30. A researcher wants his/her estimate with a minimum margin of error. Which of the following is suggested?
A. reduce the sample size. C. increase the sample size.
B. use a sample size of 30. D. use a sample size of less than 25.