4 Ways To Get More From Your RBI Program

4 Ways to Get More from Your RBI Program
WEBINAR IS STARTING SOON

4 Ways to Get More from Your RBI Program
Ryan Myers Lynne Kaley

Product Manager VP, Research & Development
- Get more value from RBI today by:
Overview
Agenda 1. Improving the probability of failure
calculation to increase accuracy.
2. Better leveraging subject matter expertise.
3. Quantifying the value of inspections
4. Improving inspection planning and
recommendations
- Takeaways and Questions
Property of Pinnacle
Problem Setup
Current Opportunities
• RBI has been widely accepted • Improve accuracy for thinning
and used for 10-15 years evaluation by effectively using CML
data to make better decisions
• Initial value of RBI has been
• Balance and focus high demand
realized resources
• Still experiencing failures • Quantify inspection history and
recommendations
• Owner-operators are looking for
ways to further improve • Optimize availability, risk and cost
programs
Mechanical Data
Integrity Optimization Science
Opportunity #1
Improved Thinning POF

• Probabilistic evaluation called
Lifetime Variability Curve (LVC)
• Uses a combination of first
principles engineering and data
science
• Creates POF and risk projection
models for all asset types, not as
dependent on conservative
assumptions
- Data-based objectivity
- Quantification of statistical
uncertainty
Opportunity #1
Evaluating Thinning Risk
Heavily à Heavily Inspection

SME-based Results-based
Opportunity #1
API 581 vs. LVC - No Inspection

Probability of Failure with Time
1
0.9
0.8
API
Probability of Failure
0.7
0.6 LVC
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
9
4
82
50
3
6
95
02
6
0
03
19
20
19
20
20
2
/2
/
8/
5/
6/
8/
/
18
21
31
/2
1
7/
4/
2/
11/
3/
7/
10
Opportunity #1
API 581 vs. LVC – with Inspection

1
0.9
0.8
API
0.7
LVC
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
7
20
3
25
4
6
98
31
09
8
99
01
03
20
20
19
0
9
20
20
/2
/2
/1
/2
/1
11/
1/
/
/
6/
31
7
24
18
6/
/9
21
14
8/
/2
1/
7/
11/
6/
7/
1/
12
12
Opportunity #1
API 581 vs. LVC – with Inspection

1
0.9
0.8
LVC
0.7
API
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
4
20
28
7
25
4
12
3
6
31
09
01
02
0
01
00
20
20
20
0
20
20
20
/2
/2
2
/2
2
1/
1/
5/
4/
/
/
6/
0/
22
7
4/
18
6/
/9
14
/2
9/
7/
/1
9/
3/
6/
1/
12
12
10
Opportunity #1
Recommendation and
Benefits - Improved Thinning POF
Recommendation Benefits
Replace API 581 Thinning POF • Improves Thinning POF calculation accuracy and precision
Model with a Lifetime • Uses all actual inspection data available and inspection
Variability Curve (LVC) results findings
• Blends both SME assigned degradation rate and inspection
results
• Quantifies uncertainty of inspection data and degradation
rates
• Dynamically updates projections, trends, and uncertainty
with more information based on how data behaves
• POF modeled using a critical thickness value where actual
failure is expected to occur, removes unnecessary
conservatism
Opportunity #2
Better Leverage SME Resources

• Focus SME on highest value-added activities
- Qualified resources are in high demand
- Demands involve several programs (IOWs, DMRs, RBI)
• Balance supporting competing programs (DMR reviews, IOWs, PHAs, RBI)
requires most efficient use of SME time
• Build SME confidence in inspection data
- Provide information for SME in damage assignments
- SME guidance to identify or confirm areas of concern
- Improve assessments and results by incorporating data analytics
Opportunity #2
Heat Exchanger Outlet Example

• SME identified two families within a
corrosion loop:
− Horizontal Condensate Locations (blue)
− Deadleg (green)
• Data science confirmed potential

accelerated corrosion on
horizontal condensate locations
• Data science found no evidence of
accelerated corrosion or serious
issues in deadleg CML
Opportunity #2
Furnace Outlet Example

• SME identified three families
across four corrosion loops:
− 1st elbows after furnace outlet
(purple)
− 2nd- & 3rd elbows after furnace
outlet (orange)
• Data Science identified a 3rd

family from data:
− Vertical risers (red)
− Confirmed by SME
Opportunity #2
Multi-Disciplinary Risk Review

• Cross-validation with MI, Materials and Corrosion, and Data Science
• Review Major Discrepancies Between Data Analytics and SME Expectation
- Identifies potential problems based on data or major gaps
- Quantifies rates and uncertainty in data rather than using assigned rates with
some level of conservativeness considered
- Identifies areas of concern not anticipated
• Improved Asset Strategies
- Inspection
- Repair/Replace
- Upgrades
- Integrity Operating Windows
Opportunity #2
Recommendation and
Benefits –Better Leverage SME Resources
Incorporate data science in • Data science provides data cleansing, comparisons,
multi-disciplinary reviews qualification, and interpretation
• Data science identifies overlooked or outside of the SME
experience
• Inform and support SME assigned mechanisms and rates
• Better correlation between SME assigned rates and
inspection history
• Optimizes use of scarce SME resource time and focuses
their efforts
- Understanding “Why” a problem is occurs
- Identifying possible solutions to problems
Opportunity #3
Quantify Inspection Value

• Quantitative, objective method desired to:
- Assign inspection credit and recommended specific inspection
- Quantify uncertainty
• Quantitative Task Effectiveness (QTE) quantifies economic value of
every, inspection, maintenance, repair, or replacement activity
• Provides specific inspection guidance and expected results to be used
during implementation of the inspection plan
• Coverage is adjusted based on actual findings so that uncertainty is
minimized
• Determines the inspection coverage required and the uncertainty
associated with inspection
Opportunity #3
Methodology
• Quantitative Task Effectiveness
(QTE) provides extent of
inspection based on desired
level of confidence
• Incorporates probability of
detection, % susceptible area
coverage, and actual
inspection history
Opportunity #3
General Degradation Example

• Damage Mechanism: Unspecified Internal Corrosion (UIC)
• 27 CMLs total – but we only need 7 for 95% confidence (cumulative)
Projected Thickness CML Selection

Historical Readings Per CML In 2025
Opportunity #3
Local Degradation and

Extreme Value Analysis (EVA)
• Thickness data used to predict minimum thickness of the uninspected
areas
Low Data Variance High Data Variance
Predictions close data Predictions more extreme
Normalized Failures
Normalized Failures
Thickness, inch Thickness, inch
• Required inspection increases as data variability increases

Opportunity #3
Local Degradation Analysis

• If data supports indication of localized degradation, EVA is valid
• If data does not support indication of localized damage due to poor
CML placement or coverage, use a Bayesian EVA approach
- SME to support improved CML placement
• With more data from inspection, SME expectation is either reinforced or
denied
Standard EVA Bayesian EVA

Overly optimistic Uses SME knowledge
to make accurate
predictions
Opportunity #3
Cracking
• Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle: A total of 81/216 tubes should
be inspected for a Low
susceptibility to cracking
- 216 Tubes
- Low Susceptibility to Cracking
- No Cracking Inspections
- Probability of Detection: 90%
• Use API 581 POF methodology and cracking
inspection history to determine the extent
of inspection required for desired
confidence level
- Statistical analysis with optional Bayesian
incorporation of SME expectation
• For 90% confidence, a total of 81/216 tubes
should be inspected
Opportunity #3
Results Example
• Total Risk reaches the Risk Target in 9/2022 - Driven by Thinning and
cracking as a secondary failure mode
120,000
100,000
Total Risk
80,000 Thinning Risk
Cracking Risk
Risk Threshold
Risk
60,000 Total No Inpection

Thinning No Inspection
40,000
20,000
0
19
21
7
7
01
02
02
02
02
02
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
4/
1/
22
18
15
27
/9
23
2/
/3
12
9/
6/
3/
7/
4/
10
Opportunity #3
Risk with Inspection

• Pareto Principle on an Asset
• 350 CMLs
• 20% of CMLs are responsible

for 80% of the total risk
• Diminishing returns with

inspection beyond a certain
point
Opportunity #3
Recommendation and
Benefits – Quantify Inspection Value
Combine data science • Eliminate subjective assumptions and rules of thumb
techniques with SME
• Specific inspection plans includes e.g. # tubes, # of CMLs,
knowledge to quantify
area of coverage)
historical inspections and
provide more prescriptive • Inspection recommendations based on expected and
inspection recommendations actual results
- If damage is less severe than expected, inspection
confidence is increased
- If damage is more severe than expected, inspection can be
increased during inspection or confidence is decreased
- Accept lower level of confidence in asset condition
• Enables focus of limited resources where they add the

most value
Opportunity #4
Optimize Inspection Planning

and Recommendations
• Current industry approach to inspection
planning uses HSE risk modeling over time
HSE
- Identifies date assets requiring inspection to
achieve/maintain a target risk level Risk
• Creates value using task optimization
- Balances the impact of HSE risk, system
availability and cost of the activities Task
- Quantifies a benefit to cost (availability increase Optimization
or risk reduction for a specific investment)
Parameters
• Compares current practices as a baseline to
an optimized plan
- Project activities 10+ year ahead to optimize
Cost Availability
activities
Opportunity #4
Forecasting System Availability

• Dynamic cause and effect link
between data points, assets and
the facility
• Model how every activity
impacts facility performance
Opportunity #4
Reliability & Performance Optimization

• Maximize reliability return-on-
investment (ROI), reaching the ideal
balance across conflicting metrics of
availability, risk, and cost.
• By connecting asset data, predicted

failure dates, field execution
constraints, and system availability
we can goal-seek reliability
Opportunity #4
Task Optimization Summary
Opportunity #4
Task Optimization Summary

Baseline Change Task Optimization
Availability Availability
98.9% 0.9% 99.8%
Forecasted Maintenance Cost Forecasted Maintenance Cost
$514K $162K $352K
QRO Analysis Conducted
• 10 Years Simulated • Unit Margin: Assumed $1M/Day

• Availability Excludes TAR • Task Optimization Only – No upgrades
Opportunity #4
Recommendation and Benefits –

Optimize Inspection Planning and Recommendations
Use a balanced approach • Improve inspection recommendations with a task
considering Availability, optimization:
Cost, and HSE Risk - Increase inspection coverage and reduce inspection intervals to better
mitigate high risk areas
- Decrease inspection coverage and increase inspection intervals to

reduce low value spending of limited resources
• Understand and quantify alternative strategies to

inspection through simulation:
- Repair/Replace in Kind
- Metallurgy Upgrade
- Addition of Corrosion Inhibitor

- Implementation of Integrity Operating Windows and Process Control
Key Takeaways
• RBI is widely used, there are opportunities for updating/upgrading the current
technology using newer, data-driven approaches
• Better use of SMEs combined with data science to improve risk management
and inspection practices
• Opportunity to remove subjectivity of inspection grading and generate more

specific inspection recommendations
• Broaden optimization of inspection to include:
- Balance system availability and cost in addition to HSE risk
- Benefit to cost analysis for improved prioritization and planning
Questions?

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4 Ways to Get More from Your RBI Program

WEBINAR IS STARTING SOON

Ryan Myers Lynne Kaley

- Takeaways and Questions

Improved Thinning POF

Evaluating Thinning Risk

Heavily à Heavily Inspection

API 581 vs. LVC - No Inspection

API 581 vs. LVC – with Inspection

API 581 vs. LVC – with Inspection

Better Leverage SME Resources

Heat Exchanger Outlet Example

• Data science confirmed potential

Furnace Outlet Example

• Data Science identified a 3rd

Multi-Disciplinary Risk Review

Quantify Inspection Value

General Degradation Example

Projected Thickness CML Selection

Local Degradation and

• Required inspection increases as data variability increases

Local Degradation Analysis

Standard EVA Bayesian EVA

60,000 Total No Inpection

Risk with Inspection

• 20% of CMLs are responsible

• Diminishing returns with

• Enables focus of limited resources where they add the

Optimize Inspection Planning

Forecasting System Availability

Reliability & Performance Optimization

• By connecting asset data, predicted

Task Optimization Summary

Task Optimization Summary

QRO Analysis Conducted

• 10 Years Simulated • Unit Margin: Assumed $1M/Day

Recommendation and Benefits –

- Decrease inspection coverage and increase inspection intervals to

• Understand and quantify alternative strategies to

- Addition of Corrosion Inhibitor

• Opportunity to remove subjectivity of inspection grading and generate more

• Broaden optimization of inspection to include:

- Balance system availability and cost in addition to HSE risk

- Benefit to cost analysis for improved prioritization and planning

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