Mono- and multi-model statistical Downscaling of GCM- Climate

Predictors for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Cherie Netsanet and Manfred Koch
Abstract ID: 1366
Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology
University of Kassel, Germany

I. Introduction V. Results
Simulated mean Tmin for UBNRB
Ethiopia is located in the horn of Africa with a geographical 7
6 A1B_2050s A1B_2090s
coordinate of 3° to 15° N Latitude and 33°-48°E longitude with an
area about 1.1 million square kilometers (Fig. 1). Blue Nile is 5 A2_2050s A2_2090s
originates in the highlands of Ethiopia called Gish-Abbay. The part of 4
the Blue Nile basin which is under Ethiopian territory is named as

Change (0C)
3
Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNRB). High population pressure, poor water 2
and land management, climate change variability and the slow pace of 1
rural development are inducing, land degradation, declining 0
agricultural productivity and vulnerability to climate impact

LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG
SDSM

SDSM

SDSM

SDSM
[Haileslassie et al., 2008].

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Fig.5. Future simulated pcp, tmax and tmin using mono-

modal output

Seasonal pcp (Multi-model)

15
Winter Spring
10
Summer Autumn

Relative change (%)

5
0
-5
Fig.3. Monthly mean observed data in each sub-basins (RF, Tmax and -10
Tmin is represented by histogram, upper and lower lines respectively) -15
-20
Fig.1. Location of Ethiopia and the UBNRB A1B_2050s A2_2050s A1B_2090s A2_2090s
II. Objectives
1) Evaluate the possible relationships between large scale Seasonal Maximum Temperature (Multi-model)
variables with local meteorological variables.
5
2) To evaluate the most common statistical downscaling methods, Winter Spring

Temperature change (0C)

SDSM and LARSWG, for prediction of future precipitation, 4
maximum and minimum temperature of UBNRB. Summer Autumn

III. Data and Methods 3

1) Observed meteorological data for precipitation from 53, maximum
and minimum temperature from 33 stations for the period 1970- 2
2000 at daily time scale are collected.
2) Large scale (predictor) data sets collected from three GCMs and 1
A1B and A2 scenarios and for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 period. A1B_2050s A2_2050s A1B_2090s A2_2090s

3) Areal average at sub-basin level is computed using Thiessen Seasonal Minimum Temperature (Multi-model)
Polygon method. 5
4) To analyze the possible impacts of future climate change on,
Temperature change (0C)

Winter Spring
particularly, the water resources in the UBNRB, climate 4
projections for the basin using downscaled predictor from three
Summer Autumn
GCM’s have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling
models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used in a 3
mono-model manner, only one GCM (ECHAM 5) and LARS-WG
was used both in mono-model (ECHAM 5) and multi-model Fig.4. Correlation between predictors and predictands 2
(ECHAM5, GFLD21 and CSIRO-MK3) mode.
 Predictor selection: It is the most time consuming task to identify
IV. Statistical Downscaling potential predictor sets in SDSM. However, it is recommended by 1
A1B_2050s A2_2050s A1B_2090s A2_2090s
the developers to use the off-line correlation analysis.
1. SDSM  Partial correlation and step-wise regression methods are
 It is a regression based statistical downscaling model developed employed in this study to screen the potential predictors. Fig.6. Future simulated outputs using LARS-WG multi-
by Dr.R.L.Wilby [Wilby, et al., 2002). modal
Potential predictors over UBNRB for:
 SDSM requires screening of the potential predictors with the help  Precipitation: Minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature,
of the screening facility built-in the SDSM software package and air temperature @ 500mpa and 850mpa, specific humidity @ VI. Conclusions
using the off-line screening techniques, such as cross- 500mpa and 850mpa.  Higher precipitation decline in SDSM than LARS-WG.
correlation, partial correlation or step-wise regression methods.  Maximum Temperature: maximum air temperature, air temperature Spring and summer seasons will be experiencing a
SDSM reduces the task into a number of discrete processes as @ 500mpa and 850mpa. decrease of up to -36% and an increase in autumn and
follows:  Minimum Temperature: Minimum air temperature, Air temperature winter seasons up to 101%. Simulation of future
1. Data quality control and transformation @ 850mpa, specific humidity @ 500mpa and 850mpa. precipitation using SDMS has significant spatial
2. Selection of appropriate predictor variables for the use of variation than LARS-WG.
model calibration Simulated pcp over UBNRB
160  2090s are dryer than 2050s especially in summer and
3. Calibration the model 140 A1B_2050s A1B_2090s spring however winter and summer season show
4. Generation of the daily data 120
100 minor increase in 2090s than 2050s, regardless of the
5. Analyzing the outputs 80 A2_2050s A2_2090s SRES scenarios used.
6. Scenario generation: Then analysis of climate change
Relative change (%)

60
scenarios 40  For most sub-basins, the predicted changes of Tmin are
20 larger than those for Tmax and for both SRES scenarios
0
2. Long Ashton Research Station Stochastic -20 and future time periods, the simulated Tmax and Tmin
-40 for spring and summer seasons are warmer than for
Weather Generators (LARS-WG) -60
the autumn and winter seasons.
LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG
SDSM

SDSM

SDSM

SDSM

 It is developed by Dr.M.A.Semenov [Semenov et al, 1997].  LARS-WG illustrate similar trend across each sub-
 It uses semi-empirical distributions to approximate the probability basins in the simulation of precipitation, maximum and
distributions of precipitation amounts, minimum an maximum minimum temperature.
temperature and dry/wet series. Winter Spring Summer Autumn
 Modeling of precipitation occurrence (events) based on length of VII. References
wet/dry series
1. Haileslassie, A.; Hagos, F.; Mapedza, E.; Sadoff, C.;
 Temperature is modeled by considering wet and dry days separately. Simulated mean Tmax for UBNRB Awulachew, S. B.; Gebreselassie, S.; Peden, D. (2008).
 Generate precipitation and temperature (Tmin and Tmax).
7 Institutional settings and livelihood strategies in the
6 Blue Nile Basin: Implications for upstream/downstream
5 A1B_2050s A1B_2090s A2_2050s A2_2090s linkages. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water
Management Institute. 81p.
4
2. Semenov M.A. & Barrow E.M. (1997): Use of a
3
Change (0C)

stochastic weather generator in the development of

2 climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 35, 397-
1 414.
0 3. Wilby, R.L., C.W. Dawson, E.M. Barrow (2002). SDSM —
LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG

LARS-WG
SDSM

SDSM

SDSM

SDSM

a decision support tool for the assessment of regional

climate change impacts. Environmental Modeling &
Software 17 (2002) 147–159.
Fig.2. NCEP grid line Contacts: Zelalem Netsanet1 and Manfred Koch2
over the UBNRB Winter Spring Summer Autumn
1. netsalem12@yahoo.com, 2. kochm@uni-kassel.de
www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/geohydraulik