Question: A large milling machine has 3 different bearings that fail in service.

The cumulative
distribution function of the life of each bearing is identical as shown in table below. When a
bearing fails the mill stops, a repairperson is called, a new bearing is installed. The delay time of
the repairperson arriving at the milling machine is also a random variable, with the distribution
given in table below. Downtime for the mill is estimated at $5/min. The direct on-site cost of the
repairperson is $15/hr. It takes 20 minutes to change one bearing, 30 minutes to change 2
bearings, & 40 minutes to change 3 bearings. The bearing cost $16 each. A proposal has been
made to replace all 3 bearings whenever a bearing fails. Management needs an evaluation of this
proposal.
A simulation of 20,000 hours of operation under the current method of operation. Notice
that, as long as possible, the same life times appear for all three bearings. It is assumed that the
bearings are in order on a shelf and they are taken sequentially and placed on the mill. The
random digits that lead to the lives of the additional bearings are shown above the slashed line
beginning. Calculate the total cost of the system.
Bearing Delay Randon
Cum. Randon Cum.
Life Probability Time Probability Digit
Probability Digit Assg. Probability
(Hours) (Minutes) Assg.
1000 0.1 0.100 01-10 5 0.60 0.600 1-6
1100 0.13 0.230 11-23 10 0.30 0.900 7-9
1200 0.25 0.480 24-48 15 0.10 1.000 10-10
1300 0.13 0.610 49-61
1400 0.09 0.700 62-70
1500 0.12 0.820 71-82
1600 0.02 0.840 83-84
1700 0.06 0.900 85-90
1800 0.05 0.950 91-95
1900 0.05 1.000 96-100

Bearing 1 Bearing 2
A. Life Delay A. Life
Cycle R.D. Assg. Life (Hours) R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg. Life (Hours)
(Hours) (Minute) (Hours)
1 67 1400 1400 2 5 71 1500 1500
2 8 1000 2400 3 5 43 1200 2700
3 49 1300 3700 1 5 86 1700 4400
4 84 1600 5300 7 10 93 1800 6200
5 44 1200 6500 8 10 84 1600 7800
6 30 1200 7700 1 5 44 1200 9000
7 10 1000 8700 2 5 19 1100 10100
8 63 1400 10100 8 10 51 1300 11400
9 2 1000 11100 3 5 49 1300 12700
10 2 1000 12100 8 10 12 1100 13800
11 77 1500 13600 7 10 49 1300 15100
 12 59 1300 14900 5 5 9 1000 16100
13 23 1100 16000 5 5 44 1200 17300
14 53 1300 17300 9 10 46 1200 18500
15 85 1700 19000 6 5 40 1200 19700
16 75 1500 20500 4 5 52 1300 21000
17 85 1700 53 1300
18 5 1000 29 1200
110
Bearing 1 Bearing 2 Bearing 3 Total
Cost of Bearings 18 18 18 54 864

Cost of Delay time 125 125 625

Cost of downtime 18 18 3600

Cost of repairpersons 18 18 180

Total Cost 5269

earing 2 Bearing 3
Delay Life A. Life Delay First A. Life
R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg.
(Minute) (Hours) (Hours) (Minute) Failure (Hours)
10 15 76 1500 1500 10 15 1400 1400 3
7 10 65 1400 2900 2 5 1000 2400 7
3 5 65 1400 4300 7 10 1300 3700 5
1 5 96 1900 6200 1 5 1600 5300 1
2 5 65 1400 7600 3 5 1200 6500 4
8 10 56 1300 8900 3 5 1200 7700 3
1 5 11 1100 10000 6 5 1000 8700 7
1 5 86 1700 11700 3 5 1300 10000 8
7 10 57 1300 13000 1 5 1000 11000 8
6 5 49 1300 14300 4 5 1000 12000 3
10 15 36 1200 15500 8 10 1200 13200 2
 8 10 44 1200 16700 2 5 1000 14200 4
1 5 94 1800 18500 1 5 1100 15300 1
2 5 78 1500 20000 7 10 1200 16500 6
8 10 63 1400 21400 1200 17700 2
5 5 21 1100 22500 1100 18800 7
23 1100 23600 1100 19900 10
51 1300 24900 1000 20900 5
125 95

$16/Bearing

$5/Minute

40 min/bearing x $5/min

40 min/bearing x $15/60min
 Delay
(Minute)
5
10
5
5
5
5
10
10
10
5
5
 5
5
5
5
10
15
5
125
Question: A large milling machine has 3 different bearings that fail in service. The cumulative
distribution function of the life of each bearing is identical as shown in table below. When a
bearing fails the mill stops, a repairperson is called, a new bearing is installed. The delay time of
the repairperson arriving at the milling machine is also a random variable, with the distribution
given in table below. Downtime for the mill is estimated at $5/min. The direct on-site cost of the
repairperson is $15/hr. It takes 20 minutes to change one bearing, 30 minutes to change 2
bearings, & 40 minutes to change 3 bearings. The bearing cost $16 each. Management needs an
evaluation of this proposal.
A simulation of 20,000 hours of operation under the current method of operation. Note that
there are instances where more than one bearing fails at the same time. This is unlikely to occur
in practice, and is due to using a rather coarse grid of 100 hours. It will be assumed in this
example that the times are never exactly the same, and thus no more than one bearing is
changed at any breakdown. Calculate the total cost of the system.

Bearing Delay Randon

Cum. Randon Cum.
Life Probability Time Probability Digit
Probability Digit Assg. Probability
(Hours) (Minutes) Assg.
1000 0.1 0.100 01-10 5 0.60 0.600 1-6
1100 0.13 0.230 11-23 10 0.30 0.900 7-9
1200 0.25 0.480 24-48 15 0.10 1.000 10-10
1300 0.13 0.610 49-61
1400 0.09 0.700 62-70
1500 0.12 0.820 71-82
1600 0.02 0.840 83-84
1700 0.06 0.900 85-90
1800 0.05 0.950 91-95
1900 0.05 1.000 96-100

Bearing 1 Bearing 2
A. Life Delay A. Life
Cycle R.D. Assg. Life (Hours) R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg. Life (Hours)
(Hours) (Minute) (Hours)
1 67 1400 1400 2 5 71 1500 1500
2 8 1000 2400 3 5 43 1200 2700
3 49 1300 3700 1 5 86 1700 4400
4 84 1600 5300 7 10 93 1800 6200
5 44 1200 6500 8 10 84 1600 7800
6 30 1200 7700 1 5 44 1200 9000
7 10 1000 8700 2 5 19 1100 10100
8 63 1400 10100 8 10 51 1300 11400
9 2 1000 11100 3 5 49 1300 12700
10 2 1000 12100 8 10 12 1100 13800
11 77 1500 13600 7 10 49 1300 15100
12 59 1300 14900 5 5 9 1000 16100
 13 23 1100 16000 5 5 44 1200 17300
14 53 1300 17300 9 10 46 1200 18500
15 85 1700 19000 6 5 40 1200 19700
16 75 1500 20500 4 5 52 1300 21000
110
Bearing 1 Bearing 2 Bearing 3 Total
Cost of Bearings 16 16 14 46 736

Cost of Delay time 110 125 95 330 1650

Cost of downtime 16 16 14 46 4600

Cost of repairpersons 16 16 14 46 230

Total Cost 7216

earing 2 Bearing 3
Delay Life A. Life Delay
R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg. R.D. Assg.
(Minute) (Hours) (Hours) (Minute)
10 15 76 1500 1500 10 15
7 10 65 1400 2900 2 5
3 5 65 1400 4300 7 10
1 5 96 1900 6200 1 5
2 5 65 1400 7600 3 5
8 10 56 1300 8900 3 5
1 5 11 1100 10000 6 5
1 5 86 1700 11700 3 5
7 10 57 1300 13000 1 5
6 5 49 1300 14300 4 5
10 15 36 1200 15500 8 10
8 10 44 1200 16700 2 5
 1 5 94 1800 18500 1 5
2 5 78 1500 20000 7 10
8 10
5 5
125 95

$16/Bearing

$5/Minute

20 min/bearing x $5/min

20 min/bearing x $15/60min