API Key:

AAPL Apple Inc

Update date: 2022-May-21 Price:
Average volume:

Operating country:
Industry:

Some important information

Override assumption cells? Yes

Reporting currency: USD
Number of outstanding shares 16,185
Low quartile 40%
High quartile 60%

Low
Long-term growth rate 3.0%

Hide all models? No

137.6 USD
120,760,020

United States
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Explanation
If 'Yes', we adjust yellow cells' values when the ticker changes

millions
Used in sensitivity analysis
Used in sensitivity analysis

High
5.0%

Choose 'Yes' (after starting the add-in once) if you just need financial data to bu
models. Please build your models in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing shee
ge & Peripherals

s' values when the ticker changes

he add-in once) if you just need financial data to build

odels in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing sheets
Balance Sheet
His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2017

Cash and cash equivalents 20,289

Trade accounts receivable 17,874
Short-term investments 53,892
Inventories 4,855
Prepaid expenses -
Other current assets 31,735
Current assets 128,645
Property Plant And Equipment 33,783
Initial value 75,076
Accumulated depreciation (41,293)
Long-term investments 194,714
Goodwill -
Other intangible assets -
Other long-term assets 18,177
Non-current assets 246,674
Total assets 375,319

Trade accounts payable 44,242

Short-term loans & liabilities 11,977
Accrued expenses -
Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital Leases 6,496
Other current liabilities 38,099
Current liabilities 100,814
Long-term debts 97,207
Other liabilities 43,251
Total liabilities 241,272
Charter capital 35,867
Additional paid in capital -
Retained earnings 98,330
Treasury stock -
Other common equity adjustment (150)
Common equity 134,047
Minority interest -
Total equity 134,047

Days sales outstanding (DSO) 28

Days payable outstanding (DPO) 114
Days inventory outstanding (DIO) 13
BS check -

Income Statement

His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2017
Revenue 229,234
Cost of goods sold (141,048)
Gross profits 88,186
Selling, G&A expenses (15,261)
Research & Development (11,581)
Net other income/(expense) (133)

Depreciation & amortisation 10,157

EBITDA 71,368
Net financial income/(expense) 2,878
Profit before tax 64,089

Corporate income tax (15,738)

Net profit after tax 48,351

Sales growth n/a

COGS growth n/a
Gross margin 38.47%
EBITDA margin 31.13%
SG&A/Revenue -6.66%
Net margin 21.09%
Effective tax rate 24.56%
 Historical
Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021

25,913 48,844 38,016 34,940

23,186 22,926 16,120 26,278
40,388 51,713 52,927 27,699
3,956 4,106 4,061 6,580
- - - -
37,896 35,230 32,589 39,339
131,339 162,819 143,713 134,836
41,304 37,378 45,336 49,527
90,403 95,957 112,096 119,810
(49,099) (58,579) (66,760) (70,283)
170,799 105,341 100,887 127,877
- - - -
- - - -
22,283 32,978 33,952 38,762
234,386 175,697 180,175 216,166
365,725 338,516 323,888 351,002

55,888 46,236 42,296 54,763

11,964 5,980 4,996 6,000
- - 1,436 1,449
8,784 10,260 8,797 9,692
39,293 43,242 47,867 53,577
115,929 105,718 105,392 125,481
93,735 91,807 98,667 109,106
48,914 50,503 54,490 53,325
258,578 248,028 258,549 287,912
40,201 45,174 50,779 57,365
- - - -
70,400 45,898 14,966 5,562
- - - -
 (3,454) (584) (406) 163
107,147 90,488 65,339 63,090
- - - -
107,147 90,488 65,339 63,090

32 32 21 26
125 104 91 94
9 9 9 11
- - - -

Historical
Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021
265,595 260,174 274,515 365,817
(163,756) (161,782) (169,559) (212,981)
101,839 98,392 104,956 152,836
(16,705) (18,245) (19,916) (21,973)
(14,236) (16,217) (18,752) (21,914)
(441) 422 (87) 60

10,903 12,547 11,056 11,284

81,360 76,899 77,257 120,293
2,446 1,385 890 198
72,903 65,737 67,091 109,207

(11,872) (10,481) (9,680) (14,527)

61,031 55,256 57,411 94,680
Average
16% -2% 6% 33%
16% -1% 5% 26%
38.34% 37.82% 38.23% 41.78% 38.93%
30.63% 29.56% 28.14% 32.88% 30.47%
-6.29% -7.01% -7.25% -6.01% -6.64%
22.98% 21.24% 20.91% 25.88% 22.42%
16.28% 15.94% 14.43% 13.30% 16.90%
formula
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fill

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Discounted Cash Flow 5Y Growth Exit

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6.4% - 8.6% 7.51%
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5% 4.00%
Fair Price 120.39 - 474.44 190.23
Upside -12.5% - 244.8% 38.3%
 Upside
38.3%

Stock Price
137.59 USD

Fair Price
190.23 USD
0
Revenue & Expenses Forecast

Projecti
(USD in millions)
Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023

Revenue 365,817 379,058 398,285

% Growth 33% 4% 5%

Cost of goods sold (212,981) (216,276) (222,702)

% of Revenue 58% 57% 56%

Selling, G&A expenses (21,973) (22,768) (23,923)

% of Revenue 6% 6% 6%

Research & Development (21,914) (22,707) (23,859)

% of Revenue 6% 6% 6%

Net interest incomes/expe 198 205 216

% of Revenue 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Other incomes/expenses 60 62 65
% of Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Tax expense (14,527) (18,746) (20,421)

Tax rate 13% 16% 16%

Net profit 94,680 98,828 107,661

% Margin 26% 26% 27%
Projections

Sep-2024 Sep-2025 Sep-2026

425,778 453,823 470,636

7% 7% 4%

(233,313) (243,707) (247,681)

55% 54% 53%

(25,575) (27,259) (28,269)

6% 6% 6%

(25,506) (27,186) (28,193)

6% 6% 6%

230 246 255

0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

70 74 77
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(22,590) (24,871) (26,598)

16% 16% 16%

119,095 131,120 140,227

28% 29% 30%
Change in Working Capital Forecast

(USD in millions except days)

Historical Avg Sep-2021

Days receivables 27
Trade receivables 26,278

Days payables 96
Trade payables (54,763)

Days inventory 10
Inventory 6,580

Net working capital (21,905)

Change in NWC

Capital Expenditure Plan

(USD in millions)

Capex
% of Revenue

5y Avg

Capex 10,931
% of Revenue 4.0%
Depreciation & Amortization Schedule

Average useful life (years): 5

(USD in millions)

For CAPEX in
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

Total depreciation & amortization

 Projections
Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024 Sep-2025

27 25 26 26
27,630 27,010 30,165 32,003

96 94 95 95
(57,123) (57,212) (60,517) (63,397)

10 10 10 10
5,784 6,057 6,597 6,679

(23,710) (24,145) (23,755) (24,715)

(1,805) (436) 391 (960)

Projections
Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024 Sep-2025

15,292 16,067 17,176 18,308

4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020

12,451 13,313 10,495 7,309

5.4% 5.0% 4.0% 2.7%
 Projections
2022 2023 2024 2025

2,663
2,099 2,099
1,462 1,462 1,462
2,217 2,217 2,217 2,217
3,058 3,058 3,058 3,058
3,213 3,213 3,213
3,435 3,435
3,662

11,499 12,050 13,386 15,586

Sep-2026

25
32,816

94
(64,101)

10
6,842

(24,443)
272

Sep-2026

18,986
4.0%

Sep-2021

11,085
3.0%
 2026

3,058
3,213
3,435
3,662
3,797

17,166
 2,663
4,198
4,385
8,868
15,292
16,067
17,176
18,308
18,986
Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Category Low High

Long-term bond rate 2.56% 3.06%

Equity market risk premium 4.24% 5.24%
Adjusted beta 0.94 1.03

Additional risk adjustments 0.00% 0.50%

Cost of equity 6.56% 8.93%

Tax rate 15.34% 16.08%

Debt/Equity ratio 0.06 0.06
Cost of debt 4.00% 4.50%
After-tax WACC 6.38% 8.64%
Selected WACC 7.51%

Detailed calculations

Tax rate

Historical tax rate

Low tax rate

High tax rate
Selected tax rate

Cost of debt
Method 1 (effective interest rate)

(USD in millions)
Interest expense
 Total debt
Effective interest rate

Cost of debt 1
(average effective interest rates)

Method 2 (using synthetic ratings)

TTM EBIT
(/) TTM Interest expense
TTM Interest coverage ratio

Estimated default spread

Estimated bond rating

Cost of debt 2
 Source

https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page

Company History
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019
24.56% 16.28% 15.94%

15.34%
16.08%
15.94%

Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019
2,092 3,022 3,423
115,680 114,483 108,047
2.61% 2.99%

2.69%

118,991
2,766
43.02

0.69% Source
AAA

3.25%
com/bonds
u/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

y History
Sep-2020 Sep-2021
14.43% 13.30%

orical
Sep-2020 Sep-2021
3,002 2,687
 113,097 125,567
2.78% 2.38%

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ratings.xls
Enterprise/Equity Value Calculations

(USD in millions)

Profit before tax

(-) Net interest income/expense
(+) Depreciation & Armortization
EBITDA
(-) Tax
(-): Capex
(-): Change in NWC
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Terminal value
WACC / Discount rate 7.51%
Long-term growth rate 4.00%
Timing of FCF (mid year)
Present value of FCF

Enterprise value 3,170,731

Projection period 450,376 14.2%
Terminal value 2,720,354 85.8%
(-) Current net debt 91,883
Equity value 3,078,848
(/) Outstanding shares 16,185
Fair price 190.23
Fair price (USD) 190.23

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC 8.64%
 Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF

Low
Enterprise value 2,040,421
Equity value 1,948,538
Fair price 120.39
Fair price (USD) 120.39

WACC 6.38%
Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF

High
Enterprise value 7,770,852
Equity value 7,678,969
Fair price 474.44
Fair price (USD) 474.44
 Projections
6M/FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
58,787 128,082 141,685 155,991
103 216 230 246
5,749 12,050 13,386 15,586
64,434 139,916 154,840 171,331
9,373 20,421 22,590 24,871
7,646 16,067 17,176 18,308
(902) (436) 391 (960)
48,317 103,863 114,683 129,113

0.25 1.00 2.00 3.00

47,450 96,607 99,219 103,899

Projections
6M/FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
47,327 95,604 97,170 100,697

47,576 97,631 101,333 107,238

 FY26 Terminal
166,825 154,834
255 244
17,166 15,379
183,736 169,969
26,598 24,686
18,986 18,157
272 (99)
137,879 127,225
3,768,470

4.00 4.50
103,201 2,720,354

FY26 Terminal
 2,323,944

98,983 1,600,641

9,656,409

107,647 7,309,427
P/E

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B18:B27 (one at a time)

Range Selected
Trailing P/E multiples 9.6x - 16.5x 12.25x
Forward P/E multiples 14.64x - 16.98x 16.55x
Fair Price 60.46 - 103.92 89.1
Upside -56.1% - -24.5% -35.2%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)

AAPL Apple Inc 2,226,922

AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,094,676
NTAP NetApp Inc 14,830
STX Seagate Technology PLC 17,213
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,888,904
WDC Western Digital Corp 17,791
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,434,318
HPQ HP Inc 36,499
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,410
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 30,454

Industry median
(*) Profit after tax
Equity value

(/) Outstanding shares

Fair price
Fair price (USD)

EV / EBITDA

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B56:B65 (one at a time)

Range Selected
Trailing EV/EBITDA multiples 4.6x - 9.34x 5.35x
Forward EV/EBITDA multiples 3.32x - 11.52x 7.6x
Fair Price 20.76 - 86.05 46.1
Upside -84.9% - -37.5% -66.5%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)

AAPL Apple Inc 2,226,922

CAN Canaan Inc 515
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,094,676
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,888,904
WDC Western Digital Corp 17,791
KODK Eastman Kodak Co 343
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,434,318
HPQ HP Inc 36,499
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,410
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 30,454

Industry median
(*) EBITDA
Enterprise value
(-) Net debt
Equity value

(/) Outstanding shares

Fair price
Fair price (USD)
 Upside
-35.2%

Stock Price
137.59 USD

Fair Price
89.10 USD

Sensitivity Analysis

Trailing P/E Forward P/E

21.8x 22.5x Industry multiple

51.1x 20.5x (*) Profit after tax
14.7x 17.1x Equity value
9.3x 12.3x
26.1x 26.5x (/) Outstanding shares
9.8x 16.9x Fair price
19.2x 16.2x Fair price (USD)
5.6x 5.7x
5x 6.9x
6.2x 6.1x

12.25x 16.55x
101,935 98,828
1,248,704 1,635,601

16,185 16,185
77.15 101.06
 77.15 101.06

Upside
-66.5%

Stock Price
137.59 USD

Fair Price
46.11 USD

Sensitivity Analysis

Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA

17.8x 18x Industry multiple

0.4x 0.3x (*) EBITDA
18.7x 12.5x Enterprise value
19.6x 19x
4x 11.2x (-) Net debt
0.4x 1x Equity value
14.8x 12x
5x 4x (/) Outstanding shares
3x 2.3x Fair price
5.7x 2.2x Fair price (USD)

5.35x 7.6x
130,246 128,867
696,816 979,390
 91,883 91,883
604,933 887,507

16,185 16,185
37.38 54.83
37.38 54.83
nalysis

Low High
Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing P/E Forward P/E

9.6x 14.64x 16.5x 16.98x

101,935 98,828 101,935 98,828
978,576 1,446,840 1,681,928 1,678,097

16,185 16,185 16,185 16,185

60.46 89.39 103.92 103.68
60.46 89.39 103.92 103.68
nalysis
Low High
Trailing Forward Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA

4.6x 3.32x 9.34x 11.52x

130,246 128,867 130,246 128,867
599,132 427,839 1,216,498 1,484,550

91,883 91,883 91,883 91,883

507,249 335,956 1,124,615 1,392,667

16,185 16,185 16,185 16,185

31.34 20.76 69.48 86.05
31.34 20.76 69.48 86.05
Earnings Power Value

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6.4% - 8.6% 7.51%
Normalized Earnings 66,572 66,572
Fair Price 41.94 - 58.76 50.3
Upside -69.5% - -57.3% -63.4%

(USD in millions)
Sep-2017

Revenue 229,234
Sustainable revenue 300,169

Gross margin 38.47%

Sustainable gross margin 39.28%
Sustainable gross profit 117,897

Research & Development 11,581

Selling, G&A expense 15,261
Total operating expenses 26,842
% of Revenue 11.71%

(-) Maintenance operating expenses 39,006

Normalized EBIT 78,891

Tax rate 24.56%

Selected tax rate 15.94%

After-tax Normalized EBIT 66,313

Capex 12,451
Depreciation & Armortization 10,157
Difference 2,294
(-) 5y Average Difference (259)

Normalized Earnings 66,572

Low High
Normalized Earnings 66,572 66,572
(/) WACC 8.64% 6.38%
Enterprise Value 770,613 1,042,885
(-) Net debt 91,883 91,883
Equity Value 678,730 951,002
(/) Outstanding shares 16,185 16,185
Fair price 41.94 58.76
Fair price (USD) 41.94 58.76
 Upside
-63.4%

Stock Price
137.59 USD

Fair Price
50.35 USD

Historical

Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021

265,595 260,174 274,515 365,817

38.34% 37.82% 38.23% 41.78%

14,236 16,217 18,752 21,914

16,705 18,245 19,916 21,973
30,941 34,462 38,668 43,887
11.65% 13.25% 14.09% 12.00%

16.28% 15.94% 14.43% 13.30%

13,313 10,495 7,309 11,085
10,903 12,547 11,056 11,284
2,410 (2,052) (3,747) (199)
Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.6% - 8.9%
Fair Price 74.34 - 362.60
Upside -46% - 163.5%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Low
Stable payout ratio 70%
(*) TTM Profit after tax 101,935
Adjusted dividends 71,355

Cost of equity 8.93%

Long-term growth rate 3.00%
Equity value 1,203,175

(/) Outstanding share 16,185

Fair price 74.34
Fair price (USD) 74.34

Discounted Dividend Model - Multi Stage

Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.6% - 8.9%
Fair Price 96.40 - 361.99
Upside -29.9% - 163.1%
Current payout ratio 14.45%
Stable payout ratio 90.00%

(USD in millions)
6M/FY22

Profit after tax 49,414

Payout ratio 14%

Estimated paid dividends 7,142

Cost of equity 7.75%

Long-term growth rate 4.00%

Timing of dividends (mid year) 0.25

Present value of dividends 7,010

Equity value 2,457,505

(/) Outstanding shares 16,185
Fair price 151.84
Fair price (USD) 151.84

Sensitivity Analysis

6M/FY22
Cost of equity 8.93%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Present value of dividends 6,991
Low
Equity value 1,560,318
Fair price 96.40
Fair price (USD) 96.40
 Cost of equity 6.56%
Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Present value of dividends 7,030
High
Equity value 5,858,912
Fair price 361.99
Fair price (USD) 361.99
 Upside
58.8%

Selected Stock Price

4.00% 137.59 USD
7.75%
218.5 Fair Price
58.8% 218.47 USD

High
90%
101,935
91,742

6.56%
5.00%
5,868,787

16,185
362.60
362.60

Upside
10.4%

Selected Stock Price

4.00% 137.59 USD
7.75%
151.8 Fair Price
10.4% 151.84 USD
 Projections
FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26

107,661 119,095 131,120 140,227

30% 45% 60% 75%

31,828 53,203 78,386 105,017

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

29,540 45,827 62,665 77,919

Projections
FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26

29,219 44,837 60,644 74,587

29,868 46,851 64,776 81,439
Terminal

130,147

90%
117,133

4.50
2,234,544

Terminal

1,344,040
5,628,948
Appendix

Year Historical Capex Most current reporting period

2012 n/a Most current fiscal year end
2013 9,076 Number of months difference between 2
2014 9,813
2015 11,488 Is a financial institution?
2016 12,734
2017 12,451 Current net debt
2018 13,313
2019 10,495 Is reporting currency same as trading cu
2020 7,309
2021 11,085 Exchange rate (USD/USD):
2022 n/a
2023 n/a
2024 n/a
2025 n/a
2026 n/a
2027 n/a
2028 n/a
2029 n/a AAPL
2030 n/a
orting period 2022-03-26
al year end 2021-09-25
s difference between 2 periods 6 (12 means they are the same period)

No
no no
91,883

ncy same as trading currency? Yes

SD/USD): 1
re the same period)

no
1